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View Full Version : Zach Greinke - Traded to Brewers



plask_stirlac
12-18-2010, 11:38 PM
http://onmilwaukee.com/sports/articles/brewersgreinketrade.html?24690
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=346109

They definitely need pitching besides Gallardo. It should be an interesting division if the Reds don't fade away (like the 2007 Cards, 2010 Dodgers).

ol' aches and pains
12-19-2010, 06:02 AM
Congrats to the Royals for trading away the only player they had that anybody knew or cared about. They are truly the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League.

Blue387
12-19-2010, 06:09 AM
The Brewers also get Yuniesky Betancourt with Greinke. I honestly didn't expect Greinke would go to the Brewers.

astrosFANATIC
12-19-2010, 06:13 AM
they are going to need Greinke for when Gallardo goes down mid-year with some kind of injury....you dont need much to be contenders in the NL Central, and the Brewers have the offense and now what seems to be the pitching to get it done...Cincinnati, St Louis, Milwaukee, and the Cubs all have a decent enough shot at the division title...i think it will come down to Milwaukee and St. Louis because they have the offensive leaders and the best starting pitching 1-3...

SamtheBravesFan
12-19-2010, 08:36 AM
Congrats to the Royals for trading away the only player they had that anybody knew or cared about. They are truly the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League.

Don't worry: Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera will fill the "I know who that is" part. Caring about them... that might only happen with Braves fans. :p

ol' aches and pains
12-19-2010, 09:03 AM
Don't worry: Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera will fill the "I know who that is" part. Caring about them... that might only happen with Braves fans. :p

Well, I cared so little about them I didn't even know they were on the Royals now, if that's any indication. It's going to be another long season in KC.

SamtheBravesFan
12-19-2010, 09:13 AM
Well, I cared so little about them I didn't even know they were on the Royals now, if that's any indication. It's going to be another long season in KC.

Can't say I disagre with you there.

Domenic
12-19-2010, 09:36 AM
Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum is a pretty good one-two-three punch. While health is an obvious caveat, I would say that this puts their rotation on-par with that of the Cardinals.

On another note, does anyone else feel like the Royals kind of settled? I know they were looking for up the middle talent, but Cain and Escobar seems like a paltry return for Greinke in that regard. Odorizzi and Jeffress are potential number twos, I suppose, but they're sort of far away, and slot in behind a bunch of more talented Royals arms.

Mudge
12-19-2010, 10:15 AM
I do not think that the Royals got hosed here. Greinke was a goner anyway. Jeffress and Odorizzi are legit major league prospects.

Sure, Escobar made 20 errors last year, but he's a big step up defensively from Betancourt (my dog would have been as well). Interesting, they both come off with a 0.9 WAR for 2010.

Cain is the wild card. It's important to remember that Cain came to baseball very late in his athletic career. He's only been playing for 6 years or so, and his learning curve has been pretty steep.

ConnieMack
12-19-2010, 11:44 AM
Greinke used his no trade clause to block a trade to the nationals for RP Storen , SP Zimmerman and others.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101219&content_id=16345808&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

ian2813
12-19-2010, 12:17 PM
Congrats to the Royals for trading away the only player they had that anybody knew or cared about. They are truly the Pittsburgh Pirates of the American League.

They had no choice. Greinke was demanding a trade. Besides, I'm always hearing that the Royals have the deepest farm system in baseball, so in a few years those guys might be household names and the Royals might be a contender.

I'm not sure why the Pirates organization always gets bashed here either. Ever since Neal Huntington took over they've been run more intelligently than the previous administrations.

Zito75
12-19-2010, 01:13 PM
KC could have rec'd WAY MORE in a deal that amounts to Milwaukee trading away a bag of balls for an All-Star. Nice move by the Brewers. You have to wonder - what are the Royals thinking? At least they still have the $55M man Gil Meche. LOL.

mwiggins
12-19-2010, 01:50 PM
KC could have rec'd WAY MORE in a deal that amounts to Milwaukee trading away a bag of balls for an All-Star. Nice move by the Brewers. You have to wonder - what are the Royals thinking? At least they still have the $55M man Gil Meche. LOL.

Grienke's only pitched at an All-Star level one time in his 7 year career. This isn't like they gave up a guy who's clearly a Top-10 pitcher in the league. And his past history limited the teams that go after him, which depressed his value.

And do forget they actually got someone to take Betancourt and the $6M they owe him off their books.

ol' aches and pains
12-19-2010, 02:56 PM
They had no choice. Greinke was demanding a trade. Besides, I'm always hearing that the Royals have the deepest farm system in baseball, so in a few years those guys might be household names and the Royals might be a contender.

I'm not sure why the Pirates organization always gets bashed here either. Ever since Neal Huntington took over they've been run more intelligently than the previous administrations.

If Kansas City's farm system is so deep, why is their Major League team so godawful? You'd think there would be somebody in the deepest farm system in baseball that would be an improvement over the product they were fielding at the MLB level.

As for the Pirates, they get bashed here because they haven't had a .500 season in a generation. I don't know when Neal Huntington took over, but he hasn't exactly turned things around.

Zito75
12-19-2010, 02:57 PM
Grienke's only pitched at an All-Star level one time in his 7 year career. This isn't like they gave up a guy who's clearly a Top-10 pitcher in the league. And his past history limited the teams that go after him, which depressed his value.

And do forget they actually got someone to take Betancourt and the $6M they owe him off their books.

True - the salary dump was nice. Now if the Royals could get rid of Meche they'd be in business.

Domenic
12-19-2010, 03:00 PM
For as strong as the Royals farm system is, the organization is essentially barren at shortstop and center field. Escobar is a year removed from being a top-fifteen prospect, and his glovework has been a plus (at the very least) - if his speed can translate into something on the basepaths, I can see him being very similar to Elvis Andrus. Cain is a fine defensive outfielder and a very good baserunner, to boot. I see him as something like Brett Gardner. Neither is a franchise type, but both are fine players.


Grienke's only pitched at an All-Star level one time in his 7 year career. This isn't like they gave up a guy who's clearly a Top-10 pitcher in the league. And his past history limited the teams that go after him, which depressed his value.

How do you define "All-Star level"?

In 2010, he posted 5.2 WAR - good for eleventh in Major League Baseball, just ahead of Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia.

In 2009, he posted 9.4 WAR - he led all Major League pitchers

In 2008, he posted 4.9 WAR - his worst showing in the past three seasons, placing him sixteenth among pitchers.

mwiggins
12-19-2010, 04:02 PM
For as strong as the Royals farm system is, the organization is essentially barren at shortstop and center field. Escobar is a year removed from being a top-fifteen prospect, and his glovework has been a plus (at the very least) - if his speed can translate into something on the basepaths, I can see him being very similar to Elvis Andrus. Cain is a fine defensive outfielder and a very good baserunner, to boot. I see him as something like Brett Gardner. Neither is a franchise type, but both are fine players.



How do you define "All-Star level"?

In 2010, he posted 5.2 WAR - good for eleventh in Major League Baseball, just ahead of Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia.

In 2009, he posted 9.4 WAR - he led all Major League pitchers

In 2008, he posted 4.9 WAR - his worst showing in the past three seasons, placing him sixteenth among pitchers.

By Fangraphs WAR he was 5.2 in 2010, but their pitching WAR is pretty flawed IMO. He was 38th in the American League in pitching WAR in 2010 using BB-Ref's WAR, with a 2.4. In 2008, using BB-Ref's WAR he was 13th in the American League.

Averaging the two WAR's, he was still below what I'd call "All-Star Level" in both 2010 and 2008 - though he was certainly a good-to-very-good pitcher in both seasons.

"All-Star level" for me would be the top 6 to 7 starting pitchers in that player's particular league, for recent seasons at least. Even using Fangraph's WAR he was barely at that level last season (7th best in the AL) and he was below that level in 2008 (10th best in the AL).

Mudge
12-19-2010, 04:25 PM
By Fangraphs WAR he was 5.2 in 2010, but their pitching WAR is pretty flawed IMO. He was 38th in the American League in pitching WAR in 2010 using BB-Ref's WAR, with a 2.4. In 2008, using BB-Ref's WAR he was 13th in the American League.

Averaging the two WAR's, he was still below what I'd call "All-Star Level" in both 2010 and 2008 - though he was certainly a good-to-very-good pitcher in both seasons.

"All-Star level" for me would be the top 6 to 7 starting pitchers in that player's particular league, for recent seasons at least. Even using Fangraph's WAR he was barely at that level last season (7th best in the AL) and he was below that level in 2008 (10th best in the AL).

Can you inform me briefly the difference between the two WARs (FanGraphs and Baseball Reference)? Seems like a huge difference in Greinke's case in 2010.

kiluckzle
12-19-2010, 04:58 PM
Fangraphs uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) and baseball reference uses earned run average (ERA).

dominik
12-19-2010, 05:40 PM
They had no choice. Greinke was demanding a trade. Besides, I'm always hearing that the Royals have the deepest farm system in baseball, so in a few years those guys might be household names and the Royals might be a contender.

I'm not sure why the Pirates organization always gets bashed here either. Ever since Neal Huntington took over they've been run more intelligently than the previous administrations.

the pirates of the last dacade or so have the reputation of not resigning anybody because the owner runs the team as cheap a possible to make maximum revenue.

KevinWI
12-19-2010, 06:30 PM
At this point, with Greinke, looks like Doug Melvin thinks the Brewers can make a run in 2011. I don't expect Fielder to get traded this offseason anymore. I imagine at the All-Star break if the Brewers are .400 then he'll start shopping Prince.

mwiggins
12-19-2010, 06:33 PM
Can you inform me briefly the difference between the two WARs (FanGraphs and Baseball Reference)? Seems like a huge difference in Greinke's case in 2010.

BB-Ref starts at RA (Runs Allowed) and adjusts for defense. Fangraphs WAR is buildt using FIP (ie walk rate, HR rate, and K rate). Fangraphs WAR assumes the pitcher has no responsibility for the outcome of a ball in play, and BB-Ref's attemps to assign responsibilty to the pitcher for some of that (based on the quality of the defense behind them).

Where I don't find the Fangraphs WAR as useful for assigning value to past performance is that it will totally give Grienke a pass for having a lot LOB% in 2010, but it will credit him with having a very low HR/FB rate in 2009. Neither one is really "repeatable", but both are a combo of luck and how the pitcher actually performed.

Now, whether BB-Ref's judging of defense is accurate is another question. They use Total Zone, which rates the Royals team defense better than either UZR or DRS does. So personally I think BB-Ref's WAR doesn't give Grienke enough "credit" for how much the Royals team defense hurt him. While the Fangraphs WAR completely ignores the fact that he struggled with RISP in 2010.

ian2813
12-19-2010, 07:10 PM
If Kansas City's farm system is so deep, why is their Major League team so godawful? You'd think there would be somebody in the deepest farm system in baseball that would be an improvement over the product they were fielding at the MLB level.

As for the Pirates, they get bashed here because they haven't had a .500 season in a generation. I don't know when Neal Huntington took over, but he hasn't exactly turned things around.

Well...it's kind of hard to rebuild a team overnight, especially on a small budget.

ol' aches and pains
12-19-2010, 07:25 PM
Well...it's kind of hard to rebuild a team overnight, especially on a small budget.

I looked it up, Huntington has been the Pirates GM for three seasons, when should their fans expect results? They've been waiting since 1992 for a winning season. His winning percentages to date with Pittsburgh: .414 in 2008, .385 in 2009, .352 in 2010. Are you sure they're being run more intelligently?

plask_stirlac
12-19-2010, 07:25 PM
I followed Greinke in late 2007 and 2008 for fantasy purposes, so each start counted. Then there was the 2009 season, and he pitched like prime Maddux for one year, but 2008 is probably more realistic.

He's a very good pitcher and deserves to leave, but don't expect too much. Remember Kazmir? Bedard?

Ben Sheets?

KCGHOST
12-19-2010, 08:37 PM
Dayton Moore is just inept. You have the best starting pitcher on the trade market who is still under a club friendly contract for TWO MORE YEARS and you unload him for a guy who might become a #3 start, two pretty good up-the-middle defensive guys who can't hit, and a reliever who 1) can't through strikes, and 2) has been suspended three times for marijuana.

ian2813
12-19-2010, 08:53 PM
I looked it up, Huntington has been the Pirates GM for three seasons, when should their fans expect results? They've been waiting since 1992 for a winning season. His winning percentages to date with Pittsburgh: .414 in 2008, .385 in 2009, .352 in 2010. Are you sure they're being run more intelligently?

Like I said, it takes time. Since the Pirates aren't going to be getting their pick of the top free agents, they have to build through trades and the minor league system. Since Huntington took over, the Pirates have been more aggressive in their drafting practices, no longer settling for safe picks due to signability issues. The Pirates haven't had a true franchise player since Huntington took over either (maybe you could argue for Jason Bay, but look where he is now), so it made sense to trade the middle-of-the-road talent they had while it still had value. Have all his trades worked out perfectly? No, but the jury's still out on a few.

The next few years should be telling. Huntington's mostly cleaned house since taking over, so this is his team from here on. If their young talent blossoms they could be respectable down the road. For the sake of the fans in Pittsburgh, I hope they are. I'm just tired of everyone always bashing the Pirates on this board for "not trying to win" or some such thing. I really do believe that their front office is doing the best it can to make the Pirates a winner.

Honus Wagner Rules
12-19-2010, 10:21 PM
I do like that the Pirates are thinking outside the box. They signed those two Indians kids to pro contracts. One of them has washed out by the other has a chance to be something.

Richard
12-20-2010, 05:44 AM
Good for the Brewers.

gman5431
12-20-2010, 07:47 AM
Definately didnt see this coming. Sucks since Milw is in Cincy's division, but it was once again nice to see a star player not go to one of the usual suspects.

G Man

abolishthedh
12-20-2010, 08:00 AM
At this point in his career, Greinke reminds me of Andy Ashby, the journeyman NL pitcher over 1991 through 2004. After reviewing Ashby's career, I must admit that Greinke has a higher upside, and that this upside may have already been realized with his Cy Young.

The parallel lies in the longterm habit of losing from a highly talented pitcher. Each pitcher had fans and his teams expecting a great deal more. IMHO, after a certain number of years, a pitcher either learns how to win or lose. Learning to pitch isn't enough when a pitcher's gifts are as strong as Greinke's.

One pitcher who always seemed to pitch way over his talent level was Kirk Rueter.

Again, after a certain level of experience a pitcher has learned how to win or to lose. Blaming the Royals lousy offense will only go so far. Greinke needs to think positively on the mound, and find any source of help he can to right himself.

Mudge
12-20-2010, 10:02 AM
At this point in his career, Greinke reminds me of Andy Ashby, the journeyman NL pitcher over 1991 through 2004. After reviewing Ashby's career, I must admit that Greinke has a higher upside, and that this upside may have already been realized with his Cy Young.

The parallel lies in the longterm habit of losing from a highly talented pitcher. Each pitcher had fans and his teams expecting a great deal more. IMHO, after a certain number of years, a pitcher either learns how to win or lose. Learning to pitch isn't enough when a pitcher's gifts are as strong as Greinke's.

One pitcher who always seemed to pitch way over his talent level was Kirk Rueter.

Again, after a certain level of experience a pitcher has learned how to win or to lose. Blaming the Royals lousy offense will only go so far. Greinke needs to think positively on the mound, and find any source of help he can to right himself.
This seems like pretty vague analysis. Do you have specifics?

I looked at Greinke's stats over the past four years.

2007: the year in which he went .500, 7-7, his ERA+ was 124 (3.69 -- 3.74 FIP) Might have been better to go 8-6
2008: Greinke went 13-10, and his ERA+ was 126 (3.47 -- 3.56 FIP) pretty much right on; could perhaps have gone 12-11
2009: 16-8, ERA+ 205 (2.16 -- 2.33 FIP) pretty much right on
2010: 10-14, ERA+ 100 (4.01 -- 3.34 FIP) presumably he should have won 2 more games and lost 2 fewer

abolishthedh
12-20-2010, 10:14 AM
This call is subjective, and not one easily found in the stats. At some point, I have to draw a parallel to pitchers in the past for this reason.

After his first year, when he went 5-17 or something, I remembered Tom Glavine and his 7-17 rookie record. I rooted for Greinke to develop into a Glavine parallel, but it hasn't happened (yet). This isn't to say that he won't learn to win, but so far he hasn't won and blaming his team only goes so far.

There are several pitchers who have pitched better than Greinke has who pitched for bad teams for several consecutive years. Greinke's parallels are negative thus far, and I hope he isn't blaming his team.

nerfan
12-20-2010, 01:02 PM
This call is subjective, and not one easily found in the stats. At some point, I have to draw a parallel to pitchers in the past for this reason.

After his first year, when he went 5-17 or something, I remembered Tom Glavine and his 7-17 rookie record. I rooted for Greinke to develop into a Glavine parallel, but it hasn't happened (yet). This isn't to say that he won't learn to win, but so far he hasn't won and blaming his team only goes so far.

There are several pitchers who have pitched better than Greinke has who pitched for bad teams for several consecutive years. Greinke's parallels are negative thus far, and I hope he isn't blaming his team.

You should take a look at FIP.

Also, Greinke's 2009 is arguably better than any Glavine season.

Mudge
12-20-2010, 01:28 PM
Well, all I can say is that Greinke has gone 39-32 (.549) in the last three years on a team that has gone 207-279 (.426).

And look at 2009: 16-8 (.667) on a team that went 65-97 (.401).

ol' aches and pains
12-20-2010, 03:20 PM
Blaming the Royals lousy offense will only go so far. Greinke needs to think positively on the mound, and find any source of help he can to right himself.

You can also blame the Royals' lousy defense. Greinke wasn't getting a lot of help in KC. He may never have another year like 2009, but but I think he'll improve on 2010 with the Brewers.

Bothrops Atrox
12-22-2010, 07:48 AM
Fangraphs uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) and baseball reference uses earned run average (ERA).

Fangraphs uses FIP and baseball reference uses RA with defensive support factored in - not ERA.

Bothrops Atrox
12-22-2010, 08:00 AM
You should take a look at FIP.

Also, Greinke's 2009 is arguably better than any Glavine season.

Yes, 2009 is better than any of Glavine's seasons...of course Glavine had about 12 better than Grienke's 2nd best season...

And FIP is useful, but not as much for careers, as it ignores BABIP skill that exists, sequencing/sit. splits, wild pitches, hit batsmen, controlling the running game, pitcher defense, pitcher offense, XBH prevention, GIDP rates, and other things that pitchers have at least a little to a lot of imact on. Correlation studies show ER to be better than FIP for guys with long careers.

lithium
12-22-2010, 06:33 PM
There are several pitchers who have pitched better than Greinke has who pitched for bad teams for several consecutive years. Greinke's parallels are negative thus far, and I hope he isn't blaming his team.

But his team is at fault for at least the poor W/L records (which are a meaningless statistic anyway) That's a fact. Their horrible defense has cost him run after run. And they don't exactly "make it up" for him with an explosive offense -- no. They're just a bad team, offensively and defensivesly, and clearly that is going to have an effect on Greinke's perceived value.

By the way, Greinke's 2009 is definitely better than any of Glavine's seasons, but of course that doesn't really mean much as one season does not a hall of famer make. But I think that the switch to a decent team + going to the NL is going to help him out quite a bit, and I wouldn't be surprised if he posted an ERA in the mid 2s.

nerfan
12-23-2010, 01:56 PM
Yes, 2009 is better than any of Glavine's seasons...of course Glavine had about 12 better than Grienke's 2nd best season...

And FIP is useful, but not as much for careers, as it ignores BABIP skill that exists, sequencing/sit. splits, wild pitches, hit batsmen, controlling the running game, pitcher defense, pitcher offense, XBH prevention, GIDP rates, and other things that pitchers have at least a little to a lot of imact on. Correlation studies show ER to be better than FIP for guys with long careers.

The Royals had a terrible defense, which contributed to Greinke's average ERA.

But I agree. Also, FIP should NOT be used as an indicator of performance for one season, which is why I don't like WAR all the time. If I have a guy named Larry who goes 35-0 by allowing deep fly balls that never go out of the park for some mysterious reason, doesn't strike out anybody, and walks a whole lot, I'd rather duplicate that season than I would Felix Hernandez's Cy Young campaign this year. Now, I'm not arguing for W-L either. I'm just saying that ERA/ER with fielding included is a much better source for WAR.

FIP should be used for projections, and even then, it'll be off quite a bit on some guys (Matt Cain is a more recent example).

plask_stirlac
12-25-2010, 11:42 AM
The Royals had a terrible defense, which contributed to Greinke's average ERA.

But I agree. Also, FIP should NOT be used as an indicator of performance for one season, which is why I don't like WAR all the time. If I have a guy named Larry who goes 35-0 by allowing deep fly balls that never go out of the park for some mysterious reason, doesn't strike out anybody, and walks a whole lot, I'd rather duplicate that season than I would Felix Hernandez's Cy Young campaign this year. Now, I'm not arguing for W-L either. I'm just saying that ERA/ER with fielding included is a much better source for WAR.
.

Does Larry also hit 75 HR if he's in the NL? Why not 162-0?

If we're holding pitchers responsible for W-L, we might as well use the team W-L in their starts. And RA/9IP instead of ERA.

dominik
12-25-2010, 02:23 PM
This seems like pretty vague analysis. Do you have specifics?

I looked at Greinke's stats over the past four years.

2007: the year in which he went .500, 7-7, his ERA+ was 124 (3.69 -- 3.74 FIP) Might have been better to go 8-6
2008: Greinke went 13-10, and his ERA+ was 126 (3.47 -- 3.56 FIP) pretty much right on; could perhaps have gone 12-11
2009: 16-8, ERA+ 205 (2.16 -- 2.33 FIP) pretty much right on
2010: 10-14, ERA+ 100 (4.01 -- 3.34 FIP) presumably he should have won 2 more games and lost 2 fewer

I think that is how we should project him if he stays healthy. he will get nowhere near 200 for the rest of his career but I think he should be capable of posting some 120-130 ERA seasons, maybe even a little higher(or lower of course also possible).

He is definitely better than a 100 ERA+ if he is healthy and mentally fit. that guy has a high 90s FB and several other pitches. but he is not the second coming of pedro martinez or greg maddux.

BeatEmBucs
12-29-2010, 06:18 PM
I looked it up, Huntington has been the Pirates GM for three seasons, when should their fans expect results? They've been waiting since 1992 for a winning season. His winning percentages to date with Pittsburgh: .414 in 2008, .385 in 2009, .352 in 2010. Are you sure they're being run more intelligently?

Rome wasn't built in a day....but I'm pretty sure they got it right the first time. The prospects went thru their Major League growing pains this season, but the Bucs have a pretty good corps of young hitters like Tabata, McCutchen, and Neil Walker. They just need some pitching to go along with it. I don't think Scott Olsen or Kevin Correja will get them to the World Series this year, but I would like to think they will improve one of the worst starting pitching staffs in baseball. I'm hoping new Manager Clint Hurdle will teach the Bucs to win on the road. 17 wins for a season isn't gonna cut the mustard this year.