Would Teddy Ballgame have hit 715 HRs?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If Williams didn't miss playing time because of military service would he have passed Babe Ruth in HRs?

FYI

1941-37 HR (age 22)
1942-36 HR (23)
1946-38 HR (27)
1947-32 HR (28)
1948-25 HR (29)
1949-43 HR (30)

He average 35.2 HRs during this stretch.

He missed all of 1943-45. In 1952 he played in six games and in 1953 he played 37 games. So I came up with 4.85 seasons missed. He needed 194 HRs to pass Ruth, an average of 40 per season.

194/4.85 = 40.0

I think he would have been close, less that 25 HRs of Ruth.

[KingNothing13]

As much as I love Teddy, I think it would have been tough to average 40 every year in those years.

But then again, he was young, and in the prime of his career.....

Such a tough question.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Using my 35.2 HRs average Teddy would have ended up with 692 HRs. Would Teddy have played an extra season to break Ruth's record, I wonder?

In 1960, Teddy hit .316/451/.645 in 113 games. He could have come back in 1961 to try to pass Ruth.

[Barnstormer]

Good question HWR, I was just wondering about what his counting stats might have been in the Williams vs. Mantle thread.

I think RBIs are an even more impressive case. Taking your years --

age 22-147 RBIs
23-145 RBIs
27-156 RBIs
28-114 RBIs
29-127 RBIs
30-159 RBIs

For an average of 141 RBIs per year. Multiplied by the 4.85 missed seasons, you get 684 RBIs.

This would have given him a total of 2523 RBIs, putting him in first place all time by more than 200 RBIs over Hank Aaron!

He actually would have "only" needed to have 95 RBIs in each of those seasons to top Aaron.

In addition, those 4.85 equally productive seasons would have given him almost 3200 runs created, something like 400 more than Ruth who is currently no. 1 all-time.

Man, he was good.

[MasonDixon]

Didn't he also miss most of 1952 and 1953 to serve in Korea? I'd think you have to factor that in.

[Barnstormer]

Didn't he also miss most of 1952 and 1953 to serve in Korea? I'd think you have to factor that in.

We did. 3 full seasons for WWII, 1943-45, then most of 1952 and 53 in Korea, giving you 4.85 missed seasons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Can you imagine Aaron trying to "pass" Williams while Williams was watching in the stands? That would have been very cool!

[Barnstormer]

Can you imagine Aaron trying to "pass" Williams while Williams was watching in the stands? That would have been very cool!

Wonder if Hank goes to Barry Bonds' games?

You know the other thing is that even giving him the almost 5 years back, he would have done it in 2000 fewer at-bats than Aaron. Williams is actually ahead of both Aaron and the Mick in at-bats per home run.

[CyNotSoYoung]

One of the main reasons Ted hung on at the tail end of his career is because somebody - one of the early sabremetrics folks before the term was invented, told him he had a chance to set some records - I think primarily break 500 homers. So, even though the Red Sox of the mid to late 50's were a terrible team and his old pals, Pesky, DiMaggio and Doerr were gone and he could have retired and gone fishing, Ted hung on for a few more seasons to get his 500 plus homers. No doubt, if he had been close to Ruth, as he would have been had he not served his country in 2 wars, he would have certainly hung around and passed the Babe. He wasn't only motivated by records, but let's face it, personal achievement was important to the man who wanted to be known as "the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived."

On the other hand, Ted was often ill and missed considerable numbers of games due to illness and injury. Who knows if he would have stayed healthy enough and avoided serious injury had he played those approximately 5 additional seasons? Still, a guy who could land his crippled plane and escape from it seconds before it exploded - after consciously deciding not to eject for fear of breaking his legs - certainly had a bit of luck (and a lot of guts) on his side.

[64Cards]

Here's another thing to consider...what if there had been a DH allowed then?

Hell, if they had brought that in, say in 64, Ted may have come out of retirement.

Could have really helped Mantle, too.

[Blackout]

wasnt he only injured during the early 50s?

it should only be asked from 43-45

[cubbieinexile]

Ted stuck around to rack up the counting stats but at the same time he was a proud man and the subsequent drop in his rate stats and daily performance probably would have drove him out of the game before he got around to Babe.

I think most predictions have Ted around 30 or so homers short of Breaking Babe's record for homers. In all probabilty Ted would have needed to play until he was 43 (2 more seasons) and he had to stay healthy for almost a full seasons worth and keep his production up as well. Ted from his mid to late 30's on was getting sick all the time as well as bit more fragile.

From what I read Ted came back from the horrible 1959 season he could end on a high note and not out with a whimper. Wanted to leave on his terms so to speak, I don't think he could have kept that up for 2 more seasons. I think the fire inside him drove him to compete but again I don't think he could maintain that for 2 more seasons.

I think Ted for the most part was ready to get out of the game his last couple of years he was old, tired, and beat up and I don't really see him trudging out there and hitting .254 for a couple of seasons just to get to 715. Perhaps if somebody pissed him off, maybe.

[DTF955]

I read somewhere (SI, maybe?) that Ted was thinking of retiring in 1954, though, except for Korea - just long enough to get a good pension. (Then again, he might have said that quote while recovering from his broken arm int he All-Star Game and just been frustrated.) So if he doesn't serve in Korea, if this is accurte, he'd retire in '54.

If he plays '43-'45, then, would he want to play 20+ seasons? I don't know, but as of Korea he was hitting .348. Let's assume he hits in the .360s-.380s for 3 seasons in the '40s (maybe a tad high, but remember he also had a great season coming off of that 3-year layyoff so to compensate we can figure he might do better in '46 by 5-10 points ont he average, etc., and maybe isn't quite in the .370s each year from '43-45, so it comes out even.)

He might be looking by 1952 at a .355 career batting averge, in a a decidedly less lively era! That's in a very rare air! Woudl he retire? I don't know - remember that he was the one to promote the induction of Negro League players in 1966. I can see a scenario where Williams has played this far, and then says to himself, "Baseball's finally integrating, and I don't want to be known as someone who racked up great numbers without having to play against the best Negro pitchers." That pride issue, as you say.

So, given that thought, yes, I can see him sticking around. However, would it be enough to break the record? I don't know. As he got closer, he'd also be seeing his averge drop. He's be thinking about tht .350 mark and considering it awfully good. (He'd likely hit .350-.365 or so in 1952-3 as well.) But, he'd see a few other records, too.

Runs and RBIs were becoming quite big then, and if that same person informs him tht he has a chance to break those marks, he would stay to break those. After all, they're big stats.

However, I think with a little more baseball wear and tear, he'd be wearing down a bit more, and once he got to about 2300 runs scored and 2400 RBIs, I think he'd hang 'em up. He'd still only have about 650-670 home runs at that point, around 1960, and would likely figure he could need 3 seasons to top Ruth's mark. Not only that, but he'dstill have a slightly higher batting mark (.347, say) and the only major record he would not have would be one everyone considered unbreakable, anyway, at thaat time. I think that would satisfy him, as nobody would expect him to do it.

[Barnstormer]

He also would have destroyed the all-time walk record...when he retired he was only 40 behind Ruth, which would have taken him 2 months. Current all-time walk leader is Barry Bonds with 2300, but Teddy (2021) could have beat that with 2 more seasons.

He walked more of the time (21% over his career) than Bond or Ruth....does anybody know where to find the all-time PA/BB leaders?

But I agree with some of the posters here -- of course it's a long-shot to say that he would have had the same production in the 5 lost years, never gotten hurt, wanted to keep playing as long, etc. I do believe however that he would have had the RBI record without much effort.

By the way, is he still frozen??

[schlabotnik]

We did. 3 full seasons for WWII, 1943-45, then most of 1952 and 53 in Korea, giving you 4.85 missed seasons.


No-one as ever came out for the rest of a season ....let's say "0.15" of a season !! Why don't you give him the full 5 seasons ? And by the way, have you figured out his peak seasons in your tabulations ? Would the Boudreault-shift alter the calculation in favor and/or disfavor. Those 5 years, since they altered his health, could they be "transformed" into 2 or 3 more years of actual baseball life ?

[schlabotnik]

The following is taken from the pages Jocko Conlan, umpire, wrote with the help of Robert Creamer : pages 194, 195,196,197. LCCCN: 67-20285.
...Or Ted Williams. The fans loved to ride Williams, hoot him, boo him, drive him to distraction. And yet I would say there has never been a ball player who behaved better toward umpires than Ted Williams. You'd think a player like Williams, who was supposed to be tense and irritable and high strung, would blow up when he got a bad call at the plate. He knew the strike zone perfectly. He knew it better than any other ballplayer. Yet he'd never say a word. He never complained.
I met (This is Jocko Conlan speaking his mind and souvenirs) Ted Williams when he was a minor-league player with the Boston Red Sox farm team at Minneapolis. I was working in the American Association and I had been assigned to Minneapols for spring training. That was a strange setup. Here I was an umpire and they had me rooming with a ballplayer, a kid named Robert Robertshaw, a left-handed pitcher. This was in Daytona Beach. Williams had just been assigned to the team and he was in the next room to ours. There was a connecting door between the rooms. I was in bed sleeping one morning, my face pushed down into the pillow, and Williams came into our room and jumped on top of me.
"Get up, Bush,"he said. "Let's go!" He always called people "Bush" all through his career.
I pushed him off and rolled over and said, "Get out of here, you big skinny punk. What's the idea of jumping on me?"
"You're not Bush," he said. "You're not even a ball player. You're too old to be a ballplayer."
"Who are you? " I said.
I'm Ted Williams," he said. "I hit 23 home runs in Dan Diego. I'll hit 40 home runs in this League."
"You better wait till the league gets started. Maybe you won't even be here."
"Is that so? You watch me. I'm a great hitter." He was. He hit 43 home runs that year.

I liked Williams right from the beginning. He seemed awfully cocky, but he was a nice kid. I was in the hotel one morning when Mike Kelly called me one morning. He owned the Minneapolis ball club. This was my first year umpiring in that league, but I knew Mike from having played ball in the Association.
"I want you to come out and take a look at a boy we have. Tell me what you think of him." I went out with Mike to watch morning practice. The ball park wasn't the one in Daytona Beach that's near the ocean. It was back inside some place and it had tremendous long fence. Williams came up in batting practice and he hit 3 or 4 balls out of the park that looked as if they were shot out of a cannon.
"How do you like him?" Mike wispered.
"He's great," I said. "I never saw a more even swing. And the timing."
"Yes, he'll do." Mike said. "He's great now, but he's going to be greater."

Mike and Ted had a warm feeling for each other, a mutual admiration society. But Donie Bush, the Minneapolis manager, couldn't stand it when Ted would walk after a ball in the outfield, wich he could do now and then. Williams was such a great hitter that the crowd always expected him to hit, every time. That went on all his career. Whenever he made an out, they booed him. I know that at Minneapolis he could hit home runs his first two at bat, but if he struck out or popped up the third time the crowd would get on him. He was just a young kid and his feelings would get hurt. If a ball was hit to him in the outfield the next inning, he'd walk after it. I saw Donie Bush pull him right out of a game when he did that. But old Mike called Donie in, and he said, "Don't you ever take that boy out of a ball game again. You can't take a player like him out. Where will ever see another like him?"

Then Mike got hold of Frank Bowman, the trainer, who later worked with the Giants, and he said, "Tell the boy I want to see him." Whe Ted came up to his office, instead of bawling him out about walking after the ball Mike put his arm around his shoulders and said,"You know, I used to do the same thing when I was a kid." And he would talk so gently and so skillfully that by the time Ted left the office he was practically crying. Williams often told me, "There was nobody else ever like Mike."

They had a special promotion one night in Minneapolis. They called it Centennial Night, and they had 13,000 people there in that old Nicollet Field. How they got 13,000 in that place I don't know. They were hanging from the eaves. Oh, it was jammed. Williams hit two home runs, and they were tremendous. They landed on the building across the street from the outfield fence. And then in the last of the ninth he came to bat with the bases loaded, two out and Minneapolis behind by a run. The count went to three and two. I was umpiring behind the plate. The crowd was yelling for an other home run, or any kind of a base hit, or even a walk to force in the tieing run. And I ended the ball game by calling Williams out on strikes on a pitch right at his knees.
Donie Bush was coaching at third base and he came running in. "Ball?" he yelled. "It was down by his ankles. It was on the ground." A low pitch is always on the ground, and a high one is always over the head. The crowd was furious. Bush was yelling at me, and the fans were booing.
And then Williams did something I'll never forget, and it is oneof the reason I consider him a great friend of mine in baseball. He looked at Donie Bush and he shook his head.
"No, Donie," he said. "It was a good pitch. It was a perfect strike, right at the knees. I should have hit it."
I could have thrown my arms around him. I walked off the field and I thought, "What a man that is." I never had anyone else in my carrer do anything like that......

[LouGehrig]

Having a CONTINOUS career would have been a great positive.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

No-one as ever came out for the rest of a season ....let's say "0.15" of a season !! Why don't you give him the full 5 seasons ? And by the way, have you figured out his peak seasons in your tabulations ? Would the Boudreault-shift alter the calculation in favor and/or disfavor. Those 5 years, since they altered his health, could they be "transformed" into 2 or 3 more years of actual baseball life ?

The reason I used 4.85 and not 5 full seasons is that he did play a bit in '52 and '53. He played in 43 games games and hit 14 HRs in those games. Assumed he would have played in 150 games in '52 and '53

43/300= 0.143.

I rounded up to 0.15.

[mordeci]

He walked more of the time (21% over his career) than Bond or Ruth....does anybody know where to find the all-time PA/BB leaders?


As with everything I do, this is imperfect. I don't have fielder's interference stats (how big a difference could that really make?). therefore PA/BB is caculated as (AB+BB+SF+SH+HBP)/BB with a minimum of 5000 PA:

(before 2005)
1. Ted Williams - 4.84
2. Max Bishop - 5.01
3. Barry Bonds - 5.03
4. Babe Ruth - 5.14
5. Eddie Stanky - 5.46
6. Gene Tenace - 5.61
7. Eddie Yost - 5.68
8. Mickey Mantle - 5.72
9. Jim Thome - 5.81
10. Mark McGwire - 5.82

[Barnstormer]

As with everything I do, this is imperfect. I don't have fielder's interference stats (how big a difference could that really make?). therefore PA/BB is caculated as (AB+BB+SF+SH+HBP)/BB with a minimum of 5000 PA:

(before 2005)
1. Ted Williams - 4.84
2. Max Bishop - 5.01
3. Barry Bonds - 5.03
4. Babe Ruth - 5.14
5. Eddie Stanky - 5.46
6. Gene Tenace - 5.61
7. Eddie Yost - 5.68
8. Mickey Mantle - 5.72
9. Jim Thome - 5.81
10. Mark McGwire - 5.82

Thanks Mordeci, interesting list...looks like there have been some walk specialists throughout baseball history. Bishop I understand, his job was to get on base so that Foxx, Al Simmons or Mickey Cochrane could drive him in. He could hit .250 and still score over 100 runs. In fact he hit .232 one year and scored 102 runs, as far as I can tell the only player who ever had a lower BA and scored 100 runs in a season was Donie Bush, who hit .231 and scored 107 runs in 1912.

But the combination of great hitting and a great eye is what makes Williams the all-time leader in career OBP at .482.

Only 5 players since 1900 have had OBPs over .500 in a season, in other words have gotten on base over half the times they were at bat:
Barry Bonds (4 times, including his ridiculous .610 OBP last year), Babe Ruth (5 times), Ted Williams (2 times), and Mantle and Hornsby once each. Williams got close (over .490) five other times.

Of course once Williams got on base he stayed there - he averaged 1.25 steals per season (yep, one point two five).

[Sirmudgeon]

My reading has WWII, and the Korean Conflict, as the main reasons why Williams and Feller are not the all-time record holders in HRs and post-1900 Ws. That said, those wars did happen, and those men participated. Had they not, they would not be the same players/people that we have come to know. No value judgements; that is simply who they were/are. A third direction of interest: if one-armed Pete Gray could play in the bigs, and Hal Newhouser could dominate from the mound, what could these two icons,
Williams and Feller, have done to inferior competition, should they have consented to do so?

All moot points, but there are three divergent paths: 1), that taken, with endless epigrammatic post-analyses; 2) head-in-sand, neither war happened, all was a continuum, and oh yeah, the Negro Leagues were... well, this is obviously the fantasy thread; 3) the most likely compromise, either or both stay home, feast on the meatballs, and succumb to the implied asterisks.

I reckon I prefer the current debate. Suffice it to say you wouldn't be far wrong if you chose Williams and Feller to anchor your lineup and rotation.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

As much as I love Teddy, I think it would have been tough to average 40 every year in those years.

But then again, he was young, and in the prime of his career.....

Such a tough question.

To average 40 home runs over those lost seasons, thats very difficult.

[DTF955]

True, #3 is most likely, as if Landis could ask FDR if baseball should continue, it would be just as possible for FDR to also order the players to stay home to allow them to "boost morale in the way in which they are most capable." Then they would not receive their asterisks.

However, the 2 chosen are ironic because Williams was quite skilled and eager to serve, and Feller actually enlisted, so it would have taken an order from the top for them to stay, unlike, say Musial missing 1945 due to the war. (IIRC)

[Honus Wagner Rules]

True, #3 is most likely, as if Landis could ask FDR if baseball should continue, it would be just as possible for FDR to also order the players to stay home to allow them to "boost morale in the way in which they are most capable." Then they would not receive their asterisks.

However, the 2 chosen are ironic because Williams was quite skilled and eager to serve, and Feller actually enlisted, so it would have taken an order from the top for them to stay, unlike, say Musial missing 1945 due to the war. (IIRC)

What's interesting during WWII Williams spent the entire time in training. He didn't see any combat or was even deployed. It wasn't until Korea that he saw combat.

[DoubleX]

I've long thought this is an interesting question. Stastically, just how amazing would Ted Williams have looked if he did not miss all those peak years to the good fight? We could be talking about a guy with 700 homeruns, 3500+ hits, could be the RBI leader, the Runs leader, and the Walks leader, among the double leaders, and his phenomenal .341 career BA might even have been higher. On the converse, some people believe that if Williams did not miss all that time, he would not have hung around until 1960 and might have retired earlier, meaning he would have compiled less stats. Even if that's the case, and assuming he would have been healthy, he should he compiled better statistics during the peak years he missed than he did during the last few years of his career.

Another player I like to speculate about is Lou Gehrig - his last full season came at age 35 and his last healthy season was at 34 when he posted .357, 37, 159 in the triple crown categories with a 177 OPS+. At 34, Gehrig was showing no signs of slowing down, and had it not been for the disease which forced a quick and sharp decline in his career starting during his last full season, Gehrig could have had several more very productive years, gave 700 homeruns a run, as well as 3500+ hits, and he could have fairly easily been the all-time leader in RBI and Runs by healthy margins, and among the leaders in doubles.

[CyNotSoYoung]

Williams owes some of his great popularity today to his military service. Although he was reluctant, he did serve and did so admirably in the Korean conflict - I was a little too young to remember but I can't help thinking that coming back a hero from Korea helped soften some of the criticism he got from the press and also matured him a little into a more gracious man.

[wamby]

What's interesting during WWII Williams spent the entire time in training. He didn't see any combat or was even deployed. It wasn't until Korea that he saw combat.

During WWII, Williams was assigned to be an instructor pilot, which was nearly as dangerous as being a combat pilot. He received orders to the Pacific for Operation Coronet, but the war ended before he left the US.

[cubbieinexile]

His time in WWII was nearly as dangerous as combat as yellow slow is nearly lemon sorbet.

[Imapotato]

I've long thought this is an interesting question. Stastically, just how amazing would Ted Williams have looked if he did not miss all those peak years to the good fight? We could be talking about a guy with 700 homeruns, 3500+ hits, could be the RBI leader, the Runs leader, and the Walks leader, among the double leaders, and his phenomenal .341 career BA might even have been higher. On the converse, some people believe that if Williams did not miss all that time, he would not have hung around until 1960 and might have retired earlier, meaning he would have compiled less stats. Even if that's the case, and assuming he would have been healthy, he should he compiled better statistics during the peak years he missed than he did during the last few years of his career.

Another player I like to speculate about is Lou Gehrig - his last full season came at age 35 and his last healthy season was at 34 when he posted .357, 37, 159 in the triple crown categories with a 177 OPS+. At 34, Gehrig was showing no signs of slowing down, and had it not been for the disease which forced a quick and sharp decline in his career starting during his last full season, Gehrig could have had several more very productive years, gave 700 homeruns a run, as well as 3500+ hits, and he could have fairly easily been the all-time leader in RBI and Runs by healthy margins, and among the leaders in doubles.


very true

I often wonder about guys like Waddell, Noodles Hahn, Homer Smoot, George Stone, Riggs Stephenson, Wally Schang, Chick Hafey, Austin McHenry, Tony Boeckel

What would have been? if not for circumstances, chronic injuries, playing time, forced out due to bad defense, or hardly used at all

[wamby]

Williams owes some of his great popularity today to his military service. Although he was reluctant, he did serve and did so admirably in the Korean conflict - I was a little too young to remember but I can't help thinking that coming back a hero from Korea helped soften some of the criticism he got from the press and also matured him a little into a more gracious man.

I don't think this was true. Williams was ripped by the media in the 50s for calling politicians and sportswriters gutless. Williams felt that it was unfair that from 1950 to 1955 a young star who appeared in the World Series was drafted after the Series. In 1950, Curt Simmons was drafted late in the season, and Whitey Ford was drafted after the season. After the 1951 season, Willie Mays and Don Newcombe were drafted. Williams himself was drafted in 1952. Billy Martin was drafted (for the second time) after the 1953 series and Johnny Podres was drafter after the 1955 series. Williams felt that their local draftboards buckled under public pressure to draft these guys and very public in saying so.

Williams was not reluctant to serve in WWII but felt he was being treated unfairly by the press and public. In 1942, he was not eligble to be drafted and he wanted to play out the 1942 season to put the money away. He missed the next three sa=easons serving in Naval Aviation. He was one of the top students in his class and was assigned as an instructor pilot.

Williams apparently felt that he was unfairly drafted in 1952. He was 33 years old when he went to Korea, and he felt that athletes were being singled out in the draft.

Gutless seems to have been a favorite Williams insult. In 1957 he used the term to describe a Boston sportswriter (Hy Hurwitz, I think) and the Sporting News responded by using a picture of the sportswriter in his Marine uniform under his by-line.

[wamby]

His time in WWII was nearly as dangerous as combat as yellow slow is nearly lemon sorbet.

I didn't say it was as dangerous. But don't think that just because Williams spent the war in the states, that he was just sitting in an office sharpening pencils or playing baseball. Like a lot of other guys, he had a hazardous assignment.

[wamby]

I read somewhere (SI, maybe?) that Ted was thinking of retiring in 1954, though, except for Korea - just long enough to get a good pension. (Then again, he might have said that quote while recovering from his broken arm int he All-Star Game and just been frustrated.) So if he doesn't serve in Korea, if this is accurte, he'd retire in '54.

If he plays '43-'45, then, would he want to play 20+ seasons? I don't know, but as of Korea he was hitting .348. Let's assume he hits in the .360s-.380s for 3 seasons in the '40s (maybe a tad high, but remember he also had a great season coming off of that 3-year layyoff so to compensate we can figure he might do better in '46 by 5-10 points ont he average, etc., and maybe isn't quite in the .370s each year from '43-45, so it comes out even.)

He might be looking by 1952 at a .355 career batting averge, in a a decidedly less lively era! That's in a very rare air! Woudl he retire? I don't know - remember that he was the one to promote the induction of Negro League players in 1966. I can see a scenario where Williams has played this far, and then says to himself, "Baseball's finally integrating, and I don't want to be known as someone who racked up great numbers without having to play against the best Negro pitchers." That pride issue, as you say.

So, given that thought, yes, I can see him sticking around. However, would it be enough to break the record? I don't know. As he got closer, he'd also be seeing his averge drop. He's be thinking about tht .350 mark and considering it awfully good. (He'd likely hit .350-.365 or so in 1952-3 as well.) But, he'd see a few other records, too.

Runs and RBIs were becoming quite big then, and if that same person informs him tht he has a chance to break those marks, he would stay to break those. After all, they're big stats.

However, I think with a little more baseball wear and tear, he'd be wearing down a bit more, and once he got to about 2300 runs scored and 2400 RBIs, I think he'd hang 'em up. He'd still only have about 650-670 home runs at that point, around 1960, and would likely figure he could need 3 seasons to top Ruth's mark. Not only that, but he'dstill have a slightly higher batting mark (.347, say) and the only major record he would not have would be one everyone considered unbreakable, anyway, at thaat time. I think that would satisfy him, as nobody would expect him to do it.

Williams did retire after 1954. I beleive he chaged his mind about it and returned around the beginning of June in 1955. Except for his two Korean War seasons and the year of his All-Satr Game injury, 1955 was the only year he appeared in less than 100 games.

[UTforever22]

I think this is certainly possible. Ted missed 3 seasons due to WWII, if we average out his HR totals from his first 3 seasons back from the war, we get an average of about 32 HR, 32 x 3(number of years he missed in WWII)=96 + 521(his career total)= 617. However, he also missed most of 2 seasons due o Korea. in his 3 seasons after returning, he averaged 27 HR, 27 x 2 (number of seasons he missed during Korea)=54 +617(theoretical total if he diddn't leave for WWII)=671. However, When Williams retired he was still hitting Home Runs, having hit 29 in his last season. Had he been this close he may have decided to play longer, knowing he still had a good shot at passing Babe if he stayed around for about 3-4 more years. This is not to mention that it is possible that he lost at least some of his skills by missing large portions of time, so he may have hit somewhat above the 3 year averages i gave above.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

We've had this discussion before.

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=30307

[THE OX]

Those estimates for the war years he missed might be a shade on the high side, owing to the fact that they used that lifeless baseball in 1943-44-45. Probably knock about 10-15 home runs off that wartime estimate.

Also in 1961 Williams might have played rather irregularly due to the arrival of the promising young Mr. Yastrzemski! So more than maybe 10 HR/yr. for 1961-62 might be pushing it a bit.

And I think he had enough pride that the pursuit of the Babe's record wouldn't have persuaded him to play past 1960.....

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Those estimates for the war years he missed might be a shade on the high side, owing to the fact that they used that lifeless baseball in 1943-44-45. Probably knock about 10-15 home runs off that wartime estimate.
They used the lifeless ball because of WW II rations. Without WW II they would have used the normal ball. We can look at this tw oways. Either assume that Williams would have joined the military or WW II never happened.



Also in 1961 Williams might have played rather irregularly due to the arrival of the promising young Mr. Yastrzemski! So more than maybe 10 HR/yr. for 1961-62 might be pushing it a bit.
An itneresting point. Would Williams been forced to share time with Yaz? Yaz was only 21 years old in 1961 and he only hit .266 and slugged just .396 in 148 games. And 1968 was an expansion year.


And I think he had enough pride that the pursuit of the Babe's record wouldn't have persuaded him to play past 1960.....
According to others he keeped playing to pursue personal statistical goals.

[Chisox]

I think this is certainly possible. Ted missed 3 seasons due to WWII, if we average out his HR totals from his first 3 seasons back from the war, we get an average of about 32 HR, 32 x 3(number of years he missed in WWII)=96 + 521(his career total)= 617. However, he also missed most of 2 seasons due o Korea. in his 3 seasons after returning, he averaged 27 HR, 27 x 2 (number of seasons he missed during Korea)=54 +617(theoretical total if he diddn't leave for WWII)=671. However, When Williams retired he was still hitting Home Runs, having hit 29 in his last season. Had he been this close he may have decided to play longer, knowing he still had a good shot at passing Babe if he stayed around for about 3-4 more years. This is not to mention that it is possible that he lost at least some of his skills by missing large portions of time, so he may have hit somewhat above the 3 year averages i gave above.

How about the 14 he hit during his Korea years? Seems like you'd have to subtract them from the total, bringing the number down to 657.

Let's put it this way.
Williams' hit 521HR in his career, 14 in 52-53, leaving him 507 in his 17 non-war seasons. His career high was 43. 43*5 is 215. 215+507 is 722. However, that was his only season above 38. He hit 96 HR in his three seasons prior to WWII, 95 in the three seasons after. That's 31 5/6 per season, or 95.5 projecting out through the 3 missed WWII seasons. He hit 101 in the 3 prior to Korea, 81 after. That's 30 1/3 per season over those six seasons, or 60 2/3 during his Korean years. 95.5+60 2/3=156, round to 156. 507+156=663, leaving him 52 shy of 715 after 22 MLB seasons the year he turned 42. Considering he hit 10 in '58, and 39 in his final two seasons combined, I'd say it would be a stretch to hit 52 after 42.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Yaz would probably have played in the infield. He was signed as a shortstop.

Was the lifeless baseball due to war rationing?

[Chisox]

Yaz would probably have played in the infield. He was signed as a shortstop.
I never knew that.


Was the lifeless baseball due to war rationing?
That's what I always heard. The better materials were for the military. Considering how much rubber was needed and the unavailability of natural rubber at the time, I can pretty much guess the core wasn't up to previous standards.

[brett]

I don't think that Williams would have broken the record. He would have had about 670 after '60.

He WOULD however lead all of baseball in net aggregate bases from the box (TB+BB+HBP) and probably RBI.

[The Kid]

Since I am BBF's new Ted Williams expert :D, I believe Williams would have hit about 650 HRs, but, I believe, may have gotten about 2100 RBIs.

[four tool]

I don't think he would have hit 700, but he would have both the RBI and the Runs scored records when he retired, and his BA, OB and SL would all be higher.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

bump! :waving

[bob]

I rekon he would have ended up between Mays and Ruth on the HR list.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

wasnt he only injured during the early 50s?

it should only be asked from 43-45

No, he was serving in the Korean War.

My guess is that Williams would've hit about 675 homers if not for military service.

[Railsplitter]

I think that he would have probably come up just short of 700 through 1960, but would have played another year to beat the Babe. He would have been 42 years old, but he would also have had a 162 game schedule and the two new expansion teams to play against.

[gman5431]

He missed the prime of his career so who knows what could have happened. I think we can all agree he would have at least been close, probably less than a season away so there is no reason to think that he wouldnt have at least tried to play another year and make a run at the record. I think he would have done it, but unfortunately, we will never know.

G Man

[Honus Wagner Rules]

He missed the prime of his career so who knows what could have happened. I think we can all agree he would have at least been close, probably less than a season away so there is no reason to think that he wouldnt have at least tried to play another year and make a run at the record. I think he would have done it, but unfortunately, we will never know.

G Man

One thing I mentioned before earlier in this thread I want to mention again. If Williams had broken Ruth's career HR record it would have been interesting to see Hank Aaron chasing Williams with Williams watching in the stands. Also, if Aaron had faced the same racist resistance I'm pretty sure Williams wound have stood by Aaron and responded quite strongly against the racist hate mail Aaron received.

[gman5431]

One thing I mentioned before earlier in this thread I want to mention again. If Williams had broken Ruth's career HR record it would have been interesting to see Hank Aaron chasing Williams with Williams watching in the stands. Also, if Aaron had faced the same racist resistance I'm pretty sure Williams wound have stood by Aaron and responded quite strongly against the racist hate mail Aaron received.

I agree. Too bad we couldnt see that happen. Then hopefully the records would have been more than 762 so we could have had a real home run king.

G Man

[stuarthouse]

Speculation like this seems a bit pointless. Who is to say that if Ted played in those seasons he would not have suffered the niggling injuries that affect the quality of play in later years. Ty Cobb believed that there were only so many games in a player's legs, so he tended to ration himself by reporting late to Spring Training. The speculation could go on. What if Babe Ruth had played outfield from 1915 on? What if he played full seasons (154 games) in 1918 and 1919, which were war-shortened? What if he was not suspended in 1922 or ill in 1925? The emphasis should properly be on what the player achieved when he was in the line-up. Whenever fate steps in to deprive a player of some prime playing time, that's just the way it is. Remember, lifetime and streak records are composed of good luck as much as talent.

[joshfan]

Yes he lost 5 years to his country but who knows, he could have broken a leg sliding into third or blown out a shoulder on a throw
What happens happens and there is no way to project a future.
I wonder if he or Feller would trade thier service for the opportunities?
Maybe maybe not but either way they served the USA proudly and are enshrined in Cooperstown not a bad track record
Would Joe D have hit 500 hrs if he played at somewhere other then Yankee Stadium?
Maybe , he sure had a lot of 425 ft cans of corn to Death Valley at Yankee Stadium that would have been roundtrippers in most parks

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Lets just say, no serious injuries, still a tough task. He has to average 40 home runs in those 5 seasons and 40 is not that easy, not even for Ted Williams.
Williams and Ruth are far apart in career home runs 193, the 714 for Babe and 521 for Ted but only 693 at bats apart, 8399 for Babe and 7706 for Ted.
Also to be considered if he was active for all or most of those games in those 5 seasons would he have had enough left to hit the way he did after age 37 or 38.
Just my guess, what I believe, give him his 5 years and he's 680-700, being that close, with one big season, possible he's very close to Babe.

[nerfan]

Yes. Easily he would have. Williams, as stated before, was very motivated by personal records. His two highest OPS+'s (in a limited sample) were 1952 and 1953, the years he missed due to the Korean War. He would have finished with 700 and chased Ruth one more year for the extra 15.

[EdTarbusz]

I wonder if he or Feller would trade thier service for the opportunities?


Based on what Feller has both said and written, the answer is probably no.

Both of Williams's tenures in the service had controveries attached to them, so he may have been more ambivelent about it, especially the Korean part of his service.

[joshfan]

Based on what Feller has both said and written, the answer is probably no.

Both of Williams's tenures in the service had controveries attached to them, so he may have been more ambivelent about it, especially the Korean part of his service.

No doubt that they both were less then ooohrah
They both did it and took all the good and bad
better then most

[BigRon]

Probably not adding too much new to what's been said.

I doubt very much that Ted would have reached 714. If he had somehow played through the war years- 43-44-45- he would have been playing with the inferior balata ball. Very unlikely that he was going to average 40 or more per season, even in the peak of his career. His career high was 43. Staying healthy, averaging 33 per year gives him 620. Give him back the rest of 52 and 53, give him another 60 or so. That's around 680, assuming staying healthy and assuming that those extra 700 games wouldn't have worn him down and curtailed his productivity the last couple of years of his career. In any case, he wasn't going to play beyond 1960 when he was 42.

Had WW2 not occurred, Williams might have hit more homers in 43-44-45. Let's say 110 instead of about 100. That would make around 690 best case, in my opinion.

Might have happened, but VERY unlikely. Williams was about Ruth's equal as an overall hitter, but he didn't have the Babe's megapower.

[sturg1dj]

next step on this fantastical journey. What if there were no wars and Williams was traded for DiMaggio in 1941. Would he have done it.

hehe

[dl4060]

I have seen plenty of projections which would have had him around 700. I think the question is, if he had 700 after the 1960 season, would he have come back and played one more year to beat Ruth. He could still play when he retired. He was not going to hit 600, so there really was not much of a reason to keep playing. Being close to 700, and Ruth, would have provided some incentive.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I'm pretty sure Williams wound have stood by Aaron and responded quite strongly against the racist hate mail Aaron received.

I agree, and Ruth probably would have as well. It's important to talk about the racism of Hank's day. It's a large part of the story but what gets overlooked is all the support Aaron received by white people. Granted, not as glamorous to talk about.

Providing he stayed healthy, I still don't think Williams gets to 700 without service. Not really a true home run hitter imo. With a total around 675, it's likely that he'd be viewed somewhat as a compiler...never really having large totals.