Andruw Jones in HoF?

[banda_bou]

What are the chances for Andruw Jones to make it to the hall?

He already is closing to 300 HR´s, has 7 GG´s...odds are that when he retires he could possibly have like 10+ GG´s and 400+/500 HR. HoF worthy?

[Naliamegod]

Unless he dies or something, he's well on pace

[Brad Harris]

Jones already has 208 win shares and he won't turn 29 until April 23 next year! His counting stats are wonderful as he has played regularly in the majors and avoided the disabled list since he was 20 years old. He has not been among the league leaders, nor led the league in anything significant very much, though that will certainly improve as this year seems to be his breakout season. He's already won 7 gold gloves and, undoubtedly, has another on the way this season. Having 8 would mean only 4 outfielders have won more (Clemente, Mays, Kaline and Griffey Jr.).

Jones is having one of the all-time great pre-age 30 careers. He's set himself up for a very good run at Cooperstown.

[efin98]

His offensive numbers are excellant so far with 285 HRs, 1,367 hits, and a career .268 batting avg./.502 SLG/.344 OBP. Defensively he has won seven consecutive Gold Gloves, and should a few more before his career is done. His only drawback is that he hasn't won and MVP, but considering how well he has done without it who cares!

Unless he gets caught up in the era's troubles he should be a Hall of Famer easily.

[538280]

I actually think that if he retired today, he'd be a HOFer. He's a very, very good hitter. Not a fabulous one, but decent. His fielding, however, speaks for itself. He's by far the best defensive outfielder in baseball today, and he may be up with Mays, Charleston and Speaker as the best ever. He is a surefire HOFer.

[rockin500]

its a maybe. very good defensively. as to whether his offensive stats are going to be enough, well, we will have to see.

[mac195]

Before this year, Jones looked like he might turn out to be someone who was remembered for never quite living up to his superstar potential. A big, breakout, 50-HR season is just what the doctor ordered for his HOF chances. His prospects improve from decent to great.

[iPod]

Below average batting average. Batted .300 only once. OBP right at league average. 114 career OPS+, without a decline phase. Only one top 10 MVP finish, 8th place 5 years ago, though he'll certainly finish top 10 this year, probably amongst the top 5. Despite being a pure slugger, he's finished in the top 10 in home runs twice in 8 full seasons, 9th in 2002 and 10th in 2003, though, again, he'll definitely be top 10, almost definitely top 5, in homers this year. With homers come RBI's, traditionally... Jones has been in the top 10 in RBI's only once, 7th place in 2003. The only statistical category Jones has led in his career thus far has been games played, in 2000.

Sorry.

[ElHalo]

If Max Carey can get in on the basis of his defense, then I think Andruw Jones should be able to, too. He's certainly no all time great or first tier HoF'er, but he definitely deserves to be there, even though he is only a mediocre hitter.

He's arguably a top 5 all time defensive CF, and the other four are already in the Hall (Speaker, Ashburn, Carey, Mays).

[mac195]

Jones has been a better hitter than Brooks Robinson, and probably equal his value as a defensive player.

[ElHalo]

Jones has been a better hitter than Brooks Robinson, and probably equal his value as a defensive player.

I wouldn't say that.

They both rank among the greatest all time defensively at their positions, though probably not at the very top (I think Brooks is a bit closer to the best defensive 3B ever, Pie Traynor, than Jones is to Speaker). However, a stellar defensive 3Bman is always more valuable than a stellar defensive CF'er.

[RuthMayBond]

I wouldn't say that.

They both rank among the greatest all time defensively at their positions, though probably not at the very top (I think Brooks is a bit closer to the best defensive 3B ever, Pie Traynor, than Jones is to Speaker).So close he's better :laugh

< However, a stellar defensive 3Bman is always more valuable than a stellar defensive CF'er.>

Actually a 3B handles about three plays a game or a little under, a CF handles about three plays a game or a little over. If a 3B mishandles a grounder, it's usually one base. If a CF mishandles or can catch up to a fly, it's more than one base

[leecemark]

--A CFer handles a few more chances than a thirdbaseman most of the time, but the 3B's chances are generally more difficult ones. That said, I think it open to question as to whether a great defensive 3B or CF is more valuable. I'm inclined to say its the CFer in the modern game. The 3B may have the edge historically (by a good margin in the deadball period).

[iPod]

Let me just put it this way... if you're going to put Andruw Jones in the Hall of Fame, you'd better put Jim Edmonds in there too. I don't see anyone around here saying that Jim Edmonds is a Hall of Famer.

[leecemark]

--Jones should have another 10 years to build his resume. Edmunds is much closer to the end and didn't get off to a great start, plus missed alot of time to injury. He wouldn't be the worst CF in the Hall, but he'll probably have to settle for being one of the better ones not to make it (and he won't be the best of that group).

[Brad Harris]

I don't see anyone around here saying that Jim Edmonds is a Hall of Famer.

He's certainly a candidate. He's as good as Wally Berger or Earl Averill. He's better than Chuck Klein or Hack Wilson.

[DoubleX]

I think Jones still has aways to go and that prior to this year, he was largely viewed as an underachiever.

I think Jones chances right now can be summed up by looking at another Braves CF great - Dale Murphy. Murphy was a much more dominant player in his prime than Jones has been, and Murphy isn't even sniffing the Hall.

[csh19792001]

Jones already has 208 win shares and he won't turn 29 until April 23 next year!

Jones is having one of the all-time great pre-age 30 careers. He's set himself up for a very good run at Cooperstown.

Chancellor-
You seem to have an encyclopedic knowledge of Win Shares! :)
Do you know the top 10 alltime in Win Shares prior to age 30? (i.e., best young players ever)

[iPod]

--Jones should have another 10 years to build his resume. Edmunds is much closer to the end and didn't get off to a great start, plus missed alot of time to injury. He wouldn't be the worst CF in the Hall, but he'll probably have to settle for being one of the better ones not to make it (and he won't be the best of that group).

Edmonds: .294/.384/.544, 138 OPS+
Jones: .268/.342/.493, 114 OPS+

That's an awfully large gap to overcome, especially considering how many people love Edmonds' glove.

There are just too many guys with resumes more impressive or as impressive who aren't in, judging by what Jones projects to look like. I mentioned Edmonds. Murphy's been mentioned. There was a long thread on Jimmy Wynn maybe being a Hall of Famer; I don't see any reason why Jones is better than him. Etc...

If Jones goes on some tear and repeats his numbers for this season the next 5 or 6 years, then maybe his candidacy changes in my mind. As it stands now, though, I don't really see it.

[mac195]

It's too early to make a projection of Jones' career totals. But considering that he is only 28, he could very well double his current numbers. That would give him 576 HRs, 540 doubles, and 1716 RBIs.


If Jones goes on some tear and repeats his numbers for this season the next 5 or 6 years, then maybe his candidacy changes in my mind.

If he did what he is doing this year for 6 more years, then declined normally, he would be one of the top CFers in history, just behind Mays, Cobb and Mantle.

[sschirmer]

I think Jones still has aways to go and that prior to this year, he was largely viewed as an underachiever.

I think Jones chances right now can be summed up by looking at another Braves CF great - Dale Murphy. Murphy was a much more dominant player in his prime than Jones has been, and Murphy isn't even sniffing the Hall.

Man, great post. I'm really surprised that no one has mentioned how much Jones loafs around. I'm seen him miss several flyballs over the years by being non-chalant. I think he COULD be the best defensive CF, but the effort just isn't there.

[leecemark]

--He has been the best defensive CF in the NL, if not the majors, for a decade. I guess if he hustled a little more the Brave's corner guys could just take lawn chairs out to the field and sit back and enjoy watching him work. Jones has been a bit of a disappointment as a hitter. He is already established as an all time great defensive CF.

[RuthMayBond]

Man, great post. I'm really surprised that no one has mentioned how much Jones loafs around. I'm seen him miss several flyballs over the years by being non-chalant. I think he COULD be the best defensive CF, but the effort just isn't there.That would explain the last seven years of 389+ putouts, leading the league five of those seven years :laugh :laugh :laugh

[sschirmer]

I'm not saying he's not a great talent. Listen, if you are capable of running a 9.79 hundred meters, but you consistently loaf your way to times of 10 flat, it doesn't make you slow. Due to his speed and innate ability to judge flyballs, he's going to get more putouts, as he's going to get to more balls. I'm just saying the guys not real big on hustle. That turns me off.

[banda_bou]

Don´t really think Edmonds is comparable to Jones glovewise....Andruw Jones was brilliant with his glove from day one..plus he is EIGHT!!! years younger than Edmonds and already has as many GG´s as Edmonds does...and is almost certain to end his career with more GG´s.

I think this is comparable to Ozzie Smith..some guys are just so brilliant defensively, that you can´t leave them out.

[Clockwork]

This needs another 4 years. If this is his peak year of his career, no. If he can keep it up, or do even better in future seasons, yes.

[RuthMayBond]

Don´t really think Edmonds is comparable to Jones glovewise....Andruw Jones was brilliant with his glove from day one..plus he is EIGHT!!! years younger than Edmonds and already has as many GG´s as Edmonds does...and is almost certain to end his career with more GG´s.And Jones actually DESERVED his :laugh :laugh :laugh :laugh

[moviegeekjan]

With long career, he's definitely on pace.

[Zito75]

There are other players in the HOF that have worse stats. (Ozzie Smith)

And it's not like he lead the Cardinals to the World Series a bunch of times. People say that Ozzie's defense got him to the hall.

Well, look at Jones... He plays great D and swings a good bat. Definite candidate in the making.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Let me just put it this way... if you're going to put Andruw Jones in the Hall of Fame, you'd better put Jim Edmonds in there too. I don't see anyone around here saying that Jim Edmonds is a Hall of Famer.

Actually, I brought this up in a previous thread about Edmonds' HoF chances.

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=25338

[banda_bou]

add on Andruw Jones on the list of the young players...age 28, already 7 GG´s and universally considered as the best in CF since the days of Mays, already 281 ( might have become 291 as we speak), only 4 players have had more HR´s at the same age, and it seems like he´s only now entering his prime. Could probably end his career with the record for most GG´s won for an outfielder, pretty close to 600 HR´s...how are you leaving him out?

[Chisox]

add on Andruw Jones on the list of the young players...age 28, already 7 GG´s and universally considered as the best in CF since the days of Mays, already 281 ( might have become 291 as we speak), only 4 players have had more HR´s at the same age, and it seems like he´s only now entering his prime. Could probably end his career with the record for most GG´s won for an outfielder, pretty close to 600 HR´s...how are you leaving him out?

The question was in the present, not 10-15 seasons from now.
He has, as we speak, 10 seasons, 1420G, with triple crown numbers of 0.268, 292, and 868 with 838R and 126SB, 0.343OBP, 0.503Slug. He also has 1,110Ks.
Reggie Sanders has 0.268, 289HR, 913RBI, 974R, 297SB, 0.344OBP, 0.491Slug, and 1503K in 15Seas, and 1,650G, and plays great D as well. Wanna support him?

It's not called the Hall of Potential.

[moviegeekjan]

There are other players in the HOF that have worse stats. (Ozzie Smith)

And it's not like he lead the Cardinals to the World Series a bunch of times. People say that Ozzie's defense got him to the hall.

Bad comparison. A Shortstop to a Center Fielder??????

[banda_bou]

The question was in the present, not 10-15 seasons from now.
He has, as we speak, 10 seasons, 1420G, with triple crown numbers of 0.268, 292, and 868 with 838R and 126SB, 0.343OBP, 0.503Slug. He also has 1,110Ks.
Reggie Sanders has 0.268, 289HR, 913RBI, 974R, 297SB, 0.344OBP, 0.491Slug, and 1503K in 15Seas, and 1,650G, and plays great D as well. Wanna support him?

It's not called the Hall of Potential.

Wow, Andruw is even better than I thought....almost acomplished as much as Sanders had in 5 less seasons.

[ElHalo]

Wow, Andruw is even better than I thought....almost acomplished as much as Sanders had in 5 less seasons.

Which would be impressive except for the fact that Reggie Sanders sucks.

[plask_stirlac]

add on Andruw Jones on the list of the young players...age 28, already 7 GG´s and universally considered as the best in CF since the days of Mays,

Really? I remember Griffey, Jr. a bit.

Anyway, what are we talking about here? He's a much talked-about defender, basically at a HOF level, and he's been a key hitter in Atlanta's lineups as well. He could still be on the short list of great CFers ever, but he's definitely going on the medium list. Even if he just kept healthy and good he'd make it on there.

He's had 30-100 4 times now. How many more, at least three? Hard to not vote for that with his glove, not a lot of players have done better than that.

With Jones' health, what will Brooks Robinson have on him besides the titles and similar Gold Glove heap? Not OBP, SLG, OPS+, HR, RBI, probably. Maybe BA. And Robinson went in easily.

[digglahhh]

Greatest since Mays?

I don't know if he's even the best CF the Braves have had since those days. I'm a Murphy man, myself.

[RuthMayBond]

Greatest since Mays?I agree that Andruw is the greatest DEFENSIVE CF since Mays. Offensively or overall it'd be Griffey Jr.

[jpenrod]

Some interesting numbers for you.... :atthepc

At age 25 Andruw Jones had hit 185 HR's Hank Aaron had 179 by the same age. At 26 Andruw Jones had 221, Hank Aaron had 219. At 27 Andruw Jones had 250, Hank Aaron had 253. At Age 28 Andruw Jones has 292 (he will be 28 until April 23 of next year), Hank Aaron had 298.

I am not saying that Andruw Jones will break Hank Aarons record, but I will say that for being such a dissappointing hitter he is in some pretty good company with those numbers.

Since I am sure it will come up Jones made his debut at 19 years, 3 months and 24 days. Hank Aaron made his debut at 20 years, 2 months and 9 days. that is a difference of 318 days or less than one calender year.

[iPod]

Some interesting numbers for you.... :atthepc

At age 25 Andruw Jones had hit 185 HR's Hank Aaron had 179 by the same age. At 26 Andruw Jones had 221, Hank Aaron had 219. At 27 Andruw Jones had 250, Hank Aaron had 253. At Age 28 Andruw Jones has 292 (he will be 28 until April 23 of next year), Hank Aaron had 298.

I am not saying that Andruw Jones will break Hank Aarons record, but I will say that for being such a dissappointing hitter he is in some pretty good company with those numbers.

Since I am sure it will come up Jones made his debut at 19 years, 3 months and 24 days. Hank Aaron made his debut at 20 years, 2 months and 9 days. that is a difference of 318 days or less than one calender year.

1) Jones plays in an era when more homers are hit.
2) Aaron was a much better hitter for average, struck out less, walked more (I think) and was a better baserunner.

[jpenrod]

1) Jones plays in an era when more homers are hit.
2) Aaron was a much better hitter for average, struck out less, walked more (I think) and was a better baserunner.

1. To my knowledge no one has hit more homeruns than Hank Aaron, in this era or another. The only players to have hit more home runs by age 28; Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Juan Gonzalez, Hank Aaron (all of these guys are or will be Hall of Famers). 3 of those players could be considered Andruws contemporaries, Mathews and Mantle could be consider contemporaries of Aaron.It is not outside the realm of Possibilty for AJ to pass Jaun Gonzalez, Henry Aaron and Mel Ott before he turns 29.

2. I realize that Aaron was a much more complete hitter than Jones is now (though Jones is on pass to walk as much as Aaron), but last time I checked 500 or 600 homeruns was still enough to get you serious consideration for the Hall of Fame and he will be halfway to 600 before he is 29. Other Hall of Fame Power hitters are not the complete hitters as Hank Aaron was. Out of the prolific HR hitters of this generation only Bonds has a career BA of .300 (Bonds, .300; McGwire, .263; Sosa, .277; Palmeiro, .289)

[iPod]

1. To my knowledge no one has hit more homeruns than Hank Aaron, in this era or another. The only players to have hit more home runs by age 28; Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jimmie Foxx, Eddie Mathews, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Juan Gonzalez, Hank Aaron (all of these guys are or will be Hall of Famers). 3 of those players could be considered Andruws contemporaries, Mathews and Mantle could be consider contemporaries of Aaron.It is not outside the realm of Possibilty for AJ to pass Jaun Gonzalez, Henry Aaron and Mel Ott before he turns 29.


Yet he's never led his league in homers, and only been in the top 10 twice so far. Obviously this year will be another top ten, maybe even a home run title. The point is, it's not fair to compare Andruw Jones in terms of home runs to guys like Henry Aaron and Willie Mays, because they'd be hitting way more homers in this era than they did in their own. Jones' home run totals look more impressive than they are because home runs today are so cheap.



2. I realize that Aaron was a much more complete hitter than Jones is now (though Jones is on pass to walk as much as Aaron), but last time I checked 500 or 600 homeruns was still enough to get you serious consideration for the Hall of Fame and he will be halfway to 600 before he is 29. Other Hall of Fame Power hitters are not the complete hitters as Hank Aaron was. Out of the prolific HR hitters of this generation only Bonds has a career BA of .300 (Bonds, .300; McGwire, .263; Sosa, .277; Palmeiro, .289)

Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro all have much, much, much better adjusted OPS's, though. In no way is Andruw Jones in a league with those guys in terms of hitting, despite the number of home runs he's hit so far.

Here's another name; Eric Chavez. He's gonna be only 27 at the end of this year, even younger than Jones, and he's got almost 200 homers already, plays in a tougher park for hitters, is a better hitter for average, has a better adjusted OPS, and is the best defensive third baseman in baseball... he or Scott Rolen, take your pick, really. Hell, you could make a similar case for Scott Rolen himself. Or Carlos Delgado; he's a much better hitter than Jones. Or Richie Sexson, another slugger; he's a better home run hitter than Jones. I've already mentioned Jim Edmonds... too many names to speculate on. Just seems silly to me at this point.

Jones is having a great year, and if he goes through a few years of really good hitting... 40+ home runs and a respectable average, for, say, 5 years in a row and picks up 3 or 4 top 10 MVP finishes in that stretch, well... yeah, then you'd probably have a HoF'er. As it is now, not really.

[banda_bou]

Yet he's never led his league in homers, and only been in the top 10 twice so far. Obviously this year will be another top ten, maybe even a home run title. The point is, it's not fair to compare Andruw Jones in terms of home runs to guys like Henry Aaron and Willie Mays, because they'd be hitting way more homers in this era than they did in their own. Jones' home run totals look more impressive than they are because home runs today are so cheap.



Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro all have much, much, much better adjusted OPS's, though. In no way is Andruw Jones in a league with those guys in terms of hitting, despite the number of home runs he's hit so far.

Here's another name; Eric Chavez. He's gonna be only 27 at the end of this year, even younger than Jones, and he's got almost 200 homers already, plays in a tougher park for hitters, is a better hitter for average, has a better adjusted OPS, and is the best defensive third baseman in baseball... he or Scott Rolen, take your pick, really. Hell, you could make a similar case for Scott Rolen himself. Or Carlos Delgado; he's a much better hitter than Jones. Or Richie Sexson, another slugger; he's a better home run hitter than Jones. I've already mentioned Jim Edmonds... too many names to speculate on. Just seems silly to me at this point.

Jones is having a great year, and if he goes through a few years of really good hitting... 40+ home runs and a respectable average, for, say, 5 years in a row and picks up 3 or 4 top 10 MVP finishes in that stretch, well... yeah, then you'd probably have a HoF'er. As it is now, not really.

Bonds, Mcgwire, Sosa, Palmeiro....all used STEROIDS too and none of them were known for their defense.

[Naliamegod]

Bonds, Mcgwire, Sosa, Palmeiro....all used STEROIDS too and none of them were known for their defense.

Bonds and Palmeiro won multiple gold gloves.

[banda_bou]

Bonds and Palmeiro won multiple gold gloves.

How many of them did they deserve? Palmeiro barely played 1b in one of the years he won.

You aren´t really comparing their defense with Andruw´s, are you?

[RuthMayBond]

How many of them did they deserve? Palmeiro barely played 1b in one of the years he won.I went through the stats and have Bonds deserving at least four. And Palmeiro deserving at least two (and no, NOT 1999). And Sosa deserving at least two. And IRod, who's accused of steroids, with at least as many :D

<You aren´t really comparing their defense with Andruw´s, are you?>

Where did this come from?

[Chisox]

How many of them did they deserve? Palmeiro barely played 1b in one of the years he won.

You aren´t really comparing their defense with Andruw´s, are you?

You aren't really comparing his offense to their's, are you?

none of them were known for their defense.

Bonds in his prime has been been considered BY SOME as the best defensive LF of all-time with a fielding % equal to Mays.

Palmeiro was arguably the best fielding 1B in the AL during the '90s. He was one of the best to pick the ball, throw the ball, and had good range. He probably was the most complete 1B in the AL during his time.

They have a combined 12 GG between them. Please tell me how you win that many without being known for defense.

McGwire did win a GG in I believe '90. He didn't have good range because he was so slow, but he was a huge target with great reaction time.

Sosa might not have been Dwight Evans, but he did play the first part of his career in CF. The times he lacked defense was due to more or less getting bored/lack of concentration (sound familiar?) than any skill defiencencies. He also had a very good arm in his prime.

[jpenrod]

after all that is what this board is for. I am not going to say that Andruw Jones is worthy of the Hall of Fame if his career were to end today, but I will say that for a 28 year old he has set himself in good position if his career continues for another 9 years. If he continues to average 30 homeruns for the next nine seasons (and does not hit another one this year) he will have 563 for his career. If you assume he wins a gold glove this year and at least 4 more that would give him 12 GG for his career and tie him for most by an outfielder as well as put him behing Jim Kaat, Brookes Robinson and Ozzie Smith. His career BA is .268 and will probably remain close to there. While a .268 career average is not great, it is not bad enough to overshadow other accomplishments. I do not think any of these projections are ridiculous, and he he does accomplish that then he will definitely get consideration for the Hall of Fame

[Chisox]

I agree with all that you just said. If he accomplishes all that, I will consider one of the best (top10) CF's of all-time. However, I don't put him in the top 25 now, although right around there.
Let's put it this way: There have been 130 seasons of MLB now. You can break that span into about 5 eras of 25 years each, with this one still fitting into the 1976-2000 span, placing the player where he played the bulk of his career. (Although technically it would be a new one, 2001-2004, noboby reasonable qualifies. Granted, it's not the best way to be complete, but it's a starter.) The CFs who qualify in that span include Griffey, Murphy, Puckett, Edmonds, Williams, and Finley, all of whom make my HOF, but the last three barely. Based soley on what he's done so far, I don't think he's in the same class. However, I think with a few more seasons he will be. If Jones plays that long, though, he'd be in the since 2001 era and certainly be the head of the class, so to speak.

Case by case: you can look up and compare the stats, anybody can do that.
Griffey--Anybody going to argue him? Offensively, sub-Mantle numbers and I still consider him the best CF defensively (career) since Mays.

Murphy--Great defense, just shy of 400HR, little above-average pure hitter, probably what Jones will look like in a few years.

Puckett--Great defense, 192 H/seas (highest min. 10seas), over 200HR, 2 WS as the main player (and primary reason they won).

Edmonds--Simply stated the Duke Snider of his era. Seasonal and percentages identical, all he needs is time to reach Snider (like Jones).

Williams--Good defensively, Good pure-hitter, RBI man, ALL GAMES COUNTING EQUALLY, the best post-season player of all-time. Holds nearly every post-season totals record imaginable with good percentages, as well (not Ruthian/Gehrig by any means).

Finley--Incredibly overshadowed and under-rated. One of only 5 300HR/SB in history and great defense. Played most of his career in pitchers parks.

The way I class those:
Griffey WAY out in front. (only top10)
Murphy and Puckett the second tier (top11-15)
Edmonds, Williams, Finley the third tier with Edmonds moving steadily up (top15 or so)

I'd put Jones, as of now, in the same class or half-class above of Lofton and Grissom around the 26-40 all-time mark (where I rank all of them; Jones 26-30, Lofton-31-35, Grissom-36-40). The bottomline is unless he's in that (my) third tier, I can't see him as HOF'er

I know there are other CFs I'm missing now that probably deserve to be in there, but I can't think of them, so others can. Any objections to the reasoning, at least. I know my rankings will, but considering this topic, I don't think a debate over all the rankings is good unless it is relevant to Jones' HOF worthiness, we can create a new one for that, if that is what people want.

[RuthMayBond]

The CFs who qualify in that span include Griffey, Murphy, Puckett, Edmonds, Williams, and Finley, all of whom make my HOF, but the last three barely.Finley, well that's interesting, but not Dawson?

[Chisox]

Finley, well that's interesting, but not Dawson?

Isn't Dawson a RF? He's in that class, anyway, and in my personal HOF. cnnsi.com isn't working (at least Dawson's page isn't) but I'm sure he played more games at RF than CF.

[jpenrod]

The way I class those:
Griffey WAY out in front. (only top10)
Murphy and Puckett the second tier (top11-15)
Edmonds, Williams, Finley the third tier with Edmonds moving steadily up (top15 or so)



I'd put Jones, as of now, in the same class or half-class above of Lofton and Grissom around the 26-40 all-time mark (where I rank all of them; Jones 26-30, Lofton-31-35, Grissom-36-40). The bottomline is unless he's in that (my) third tier, I can't see him as HOF'er


And I am not sure how he is not in your third tier.

I am not going to bother comparing him to Junior because at this point I agree he is so far ahead there is no need to compare them (once Jones has played as long as Junior has played they will be much more comparable)

first lets look at your tier 2 players:

Having played 8 fewer seasons Jones is 724 hits behind Murphy (91 hits a season), 105 HR behind Murphy (13 HR a season), 392 RBI's Behind (49/season), and a higher average than Murph. Defensively Murphy has a .983 FPCT compared to Jones .990 FPCT, 5 GG to Jones 7 GG, only 318 more PO (Jones has averaged 374 PO a year over his career), Murphy has 12 more assists, fewer DP's and 42 more Errors than Jones (Jones averages 10, 2.4 and 4 respectively.) All said Jones looks good compared to Murph considering the difference in years played.

It is difficult to compare Puckett and Jones because one hit for average while the other is a powere hitter, but Puckett averaged 53 more hits a season while Jones has averaged 12 more HR RBI's are a wash. Defensively here again is a wash as their average numbers are so close. I do not consider this a bad thing considering tha Puckett is in the Hall.

Moving on to 3rd tier:

Edmonds has averaged fewer Hits, HR and RBI's per season than Jones, they both have 7 GG but Jones has 728 more put outs than Edmonds (he has also played 3 less seasons) and as many assists as edmonds. I think Jones has the edge here.

Williams has averaged 8 more hits a year, 11 fewer HR's, and 8 fewer RBI's. He has 797 fewer PO in 5 more seasons, he averages 8 fewer assists and 3 fewer DP's a year. he has 4 GG's to Jones 7. Defensively no comparison to Jones and offensively no better.

Finely has averaged 4 fewer hits/yr, 13 fewer HR's/ season, 25 fewer RBI's/season, and Jones has played his whole career in a pitcher friendly park. Defensively Jones has 731 more PO's in 8 fewer seasons, 35 more assist and 3 more DP and 2 more GG's.

Botoom Line I do not see how Jones is not in your third tier at least. and definitely how you have him 10 slots lower than your third tier.

[iPod]

Bonds, Mcgwire, Sosa, Palmeiro....all used STEROIDS too and none of them were known for their defense.

In other words, we should put an undeserving person into the Hall of Fame because he didn't use steroids. And we don't even know that he didn't use steroids.

[jpenrod]

In other words, we should put an undeserving person into the Hall of Fame because he didn't use steroids. And we don't even know that he didn't use steroids.


Are you saying you suspect Andruw of using steroids? Your comment almost seems that way. I have never heard any accusations of Jones using steroids while there have been rampant accusations of the other and at least three have admitted or tested for some form of performance enhancing drug. And yes I do think that plays into who is worthy of the Hall. In the past it was easier to decide who was the dominant players in any era by a straight comparison, but now you have to consider if the dominant players were on steroids.

Let me put it this way, Palmerio has tested positive for using steroids (combine that with Canseco's accusations) and you have to wonder how many of his numbers are him and how many are a result of juicing. Bonds has admitted to "unknowingly" using performance enhancing drugs (the cream and the clear). Even though he has never tested positive under MLB (he also has not played since they began the new policy) it gives one pause to wonder how much of his achievement have been helped by these drugs knowingly or otherwise. Mark Mcqwire admitted to using Andro (not illegal but still a performance enhancing drug) in the last years of his career including his record breaking homerun season. Again this causes me (and I think others) to wonder how much his late career power was helped by these drugs, and without his power numbers McGwire is a borderline Hall of Famer at best.

To compare a player that has never admitted to using performance enhancing drugs, has never tested positive, and to my knowledge has never been accused of using these drugs to these other guys simply because he played in the same era is questionable. Like it or not this is an issue that is going to have to be dealt with when deciding who deserves to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I am not saying that the standards to be inducted in the Hall of Fame should be lowered and guys should be admitted just for not using steroids, but I do think before comparing one player to another drug use should be considered. After all, "Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.", and the use of performance enhancing drugs definitely calls into question integrity, sportsmanship, and character and to some degree playing ability.

[banda_bou]

In other words, we should put an undeserving person into the Hall of Fame because he didn't use steroids. And we don't even know that he didn't use steroids.

So you´re suspecting Andruw Jones of steroid use? We all know that the others DID and/or SUSPECTED that they used steroids....One has even been CAUGHT using steroids.

As far I know, Andruw´s name has never come up in any discussion regarding steroid use.

[banda_bou]

Thing is that Andruw´s such an edge defensively compared to most CF´ers, while he still gets his RBI´s and HR´s offensively...

I think when all is said and done, guy´s gonna be in HoF.

[iPod]

Not at all. My point is only that we don't know. It seems odd to me to say "Yeah, but that's different; Jones didn't use steroids," when we don't know that. Not saying he is, at all.

I guess 500 homers and that defense is HoF worthy, but ehhh. Hard to jump to conclusions like that when it'll entirely be based on those numbers, not peak.

[banda_bou]

I hear ya, Ipod...it´s cool.

[Sockeye]

He's 29 and in his 11th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 3192
At-Bats 11596
Runs 1881
Hits 3097
Doubles 602
Triples 50
Home Runs 662
RBI's 1966
Stolen Bases 200
Walks 1243
AVG .265
OBP .340
SLG .500

[TheSandman]

At this point in his career he could really go either way. But I'm gonna say yes. Your projected stats make sense, but I doubt he'll get 3000 hits.

[BoSox Rule]

I think he'll make it. He's probably going to end up the best defensive CF ever, he already is on a per season basis.

[baseballPAP]

His defense has been in decline for a couple years now, and so has his speed. In no way do I think he has a shot at ANY of the numbers here, and to say he'll end up as the greatest CF ever, even defensively is not even a possibility IMO.

[justice22]

????????? 600 home runs? I guess last year wasn't an anomally, but the rest of his career was!

[jpenrod]

????????? 600 home runs? I guess last year wasn't an anomally, but the rest of his career was!

Actually to get to 600 HR, AJ would have to average 30 HR for the next 10 years (till he is 38). Considering he averaged 28 HR for his first 9 seasons (not including last year) and a little over 32 HR/year since becoming an everyday starter in 1998 (again not counting last year), I do not think 600 is too far out of the question. Those number I just gave you assumes that last year was an anomally as you say, but I think it is reasonably to assume that his number may stay slightly above his career average for the next few seasons given his age (not saying he will hit 51 again, but around 40 is not unreasonable). While 660 (or what ever sockeye said) may be a little high, I do not think 600 is impossible.

[CoasttoCoast]

I would bet a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle that Andruw will not hit 600 homeruns..... As he gains more weight he will become more of a disabled list kinda guy.

[yankillaz]

First of all...he'll get in the Hall. That's my vote.

But i will like to consider something. His stats won't wind up how you think they will sockeye. Apparently you didn't take into account something that occurs to the 90% of players that excel in the bigs after coming in at such a young age: either they have sudden decline at a young age (33-36 years), or they retire pretty soon. If Andruw plays 8 more years, he'll be 36, and have 18-19 seasons under his belt.

I do thing he'll end up with +500 homers, +1500 rbis, +1500 r, +2500 hits. Doubt the Stolen bases, but that's just me.

[jpenrod]

I would bet a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle that Andruw will not hit 600 homeruns..... As he gains more weight he will become more of a disabled list kinda guy.

Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of people root for Andruw to fail. I mean statements like this one kind of perplex me, because Andruw has not spent anytime on the Dl. has averaged 158 games played since 1998 and has shown up "overweight" almost every year. I remember when Sheffield was in Atlanta there was an article written about him that he had to completely change his diet and add a couple of meals each day in order to maintain his weight during the summer months in HOTlanta. the reason I bring this up, is because the first time Andruw showed up to Spring Training "overweight" he made the statement that he intentionally put on the weight to benifit him later in the season when others would wear out. I do not know if there is really any legitimacy behind this claim, but the facts are that he goes out and plays everyday. His production has not suffered (in fact he has been more productive last year and so far this year) Yes his speed is down, and maybe his defense has declined a little (not nearly as much as people on here want to claim), but that happens as you get older.

It just seems to me that people on here long for the day for Jones to break down and become the absolute failure they want to believe him to be. the numbers do not support these fantasies, but hey here's to hoping!

[CoasttoCoast]

I dont want him to fail but his only protection in the lineup is Chipper and he is a dl mainstay.I just wish the Braves would find a quality man to hit in front of or behind him and some monster seasons could occur.

[jpenrod]

I dont want him to fail but his only protection in the lineup is Chipper and he is a dl mainstay.I just wish the Braves would find a quality man to hit in front of or behind him and some monster seasons could occur.

Maybe I misread your post, but I thought you said Andruw would become a mainstay on the DL because of his weight. That has nothing to do with who is hitting around him. I just see posts a lot that say "Andruw will never do this because of XYZ" the funny thing is there is no basis for XYZ to happen other than the fact that most of the people making those posts think very lowly of Andruw. Your post struck me this way because there is really no basis to say he will become a DL mainstay when he has never spent time on the DL or had any type of recurring injury. I am not saying that his weight will not effect him or that he will not be on the DL, but I see no basis to make that conclusion. If I misread your post, I am sorry.

[Sockeye]

I'm noticing a reoccuring theme here. Certain people here predict injuries and an early retirement for every single player. Too bad baseball fever wasn't around in the 50's/60's. People would have predicted that Mays/Aaron/Robinson would all be out of baseball by the age of 35 and each failed to reach 500 career home runs only to be proven wrong.

To put up great counting numbers a player must (a) begin playing at an early age. Andruw started at 19 (b) play everyday and remain injury free. Andruw has averaged 158 games per season since 1998 and never been on the DL. (c) longevity. There is nothing to indicate that Andruw Jones will not play until at least late in his 30's or age 40+

[Food]

I can see Andruw Jones in the HOF. He's definite one of the premier outfielders of the day, and with 5 or 6 more All-Star level seasons, I think that'll pretty much cinch it.

[yankillaz]

I'm noticing a reoccuring theme here. Certain people here predict injuries and an early retirement for every single player. Too bad baseball fever wasn't around in the 50's/60's. People would have predicted that Mays/Aaron/Robinson would all be out of baseball by the age of 35 and each failed to reach 500 career home runs only to be proven wrong.

To put up great counting numbers a player must (a) begin playing at an early age. Andruw started at 19 (b) play everyday and remain injury free. Andruw has averaged 158 games per season since 1998 and never been on the DL. (c) longevity. There is nothing to indicate that Andruw Jones will not play until at least late in his 30's or age 40+

Time will tell Sockeye, time will tell.

[BoSox Rule]

I'm noticing a reoccuring theme here. Certain people here predict injuries and an early retirement for every single player. Too bad baseball fever wasn't around in the 50's/60's. People would have predicted that Mays/Aaron/Robinson would all be out of baseball by the age of 35 and each failed to reach 500 career home runs only to be proven wrong.

To put up great counting numbers a player must (a) begin playing at an early age. Andruw started at 19 (b) play everyday and remain injury free. Andruw has averaged 158 games per season since 1998 and never been on the DL. (c) longevity. There is nothing to indicate that Andruw Jones will not play until at least late in his 30's or age 40+
You think every player will have 20 years and/or 3000+ games. Only 8 players have 3000 games.

[The Big C]

Jpenrod, I think CoasttoCoast was saying that Chipper was a DL mainstay.

I think Andruw will get in, and he will most likely hit about 550-600 homers if you ask me. I think 662 is pushing it, but if last year was an indication of things to come then it could happen.

[Sockeye]

You think every player will have 20 years and/or 3000+ games. Only 8 players have 3000 games.

Get your facts straight. I've projected 3000+ games for 2 out of 16 players so far

[Sockeye]

Through age 28 Willie Mays had hit 250 career home runs and had hit 36, 35, 29, and 34 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. He then went on to hit another 410 homeruns over the next 14 seasons to finish with 660

Through age 28 Andruw Jones has hit 301 career home runs and had hit 35, 36, 29, and 51 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. I predict Andruw Jones will hit another 361 home runs over the next 12 seasons to finish with 662.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm noticing a reoccuring theme here. Certain people here predict injuries and an early retirement for every single player. Too bad baseball fever wasn't around in the 50's/60's. People would have predicted that Mays/Aaron/Robinson would all be out of baseball by the age of 35 and each failed to reach 500 career home runs only to be proven wrong.

To put up great counting numbers a player must (a) begin playing at an early age. Andruw started at 19 (b) play everyday and remain injury free. Andruw has averaged 158 games per season since 1998 and never been on the DL. (c) longevity. There is nothing to indicate that Andruw Jones will not play until at least late in his 30's or age 40+

Jones has had some injuries, but nothing earth-shattering I can see; he plays 150 games every year. He's won the last 8 Gold Gloves for CF, and while he may have won last year's GG with his bat, that's still 8 Gold Gloves.

Jones is kind of what Mike Cameron would be if he had his best season every year. Actually, Jones is somewhat better than that. Take out what Jones did last year, and you have an improved version of Mike Cameron's peak, over and over again. Actually, Jones' average is about 8-10 HRs a year better than Cameron, at his peak, but he's the same type of player. He's a low average, super defense, super secondary average player, but not too much of his value is couched in his batting average.

I doubt very much that Jones will hit Sockeye's projections. The 600 HR barrier is a tough, tough barrier to break; despite steroids, weight training, etc, only Barry Bonds has broken through. Raffy, Sammy, Big Mac all fell short. Andruw will, too; I doubt his BA will be high enough to keep him hitting HRs at a 600 HR pace once he's past 35.

That being said, Andruw is a likely HOFer. He is 50-50 to get to 500 HRs, and if he hits 40 HRs this year, his chances go up significantly. He started young, and he's been consistent from year to year, so he's a known quantity. Barring an unforseen injury or illness, it's hard to see Jones not making the HOF, and he's the kind of player who'd have a shot if he blew out his knee tomorrow and his career was over.

[Sockeye]

Jones has had some injuries, but nothing earth-shattering I can see; he plays 150 games every year. He's won the last 8 Gold Gloves for CF, and while he may have won last year's GG with his bat, that's still 8 Gold Gloves.

Jones is kind of what Mike Cameron would be if he had his best season every year. Actually, Jones is somewhat better than that. Take out what Jones did last year, and you have an improved version of Mike Cameron's peak, over and over again. Actually, Jones' average is about 8-10 HRs a year better than Cameron, at his peak, but he's the same type of player. He's a low average, super defense, super secondary average player, but not too much of his value is couched in his batting average.

I doubt very much that Jones will hit Sockeye's projections. The 600 HR barrier is a tough, tough barrier to break; despite steroids, weight training, etc, only Barry Bonds has broken through. Raffy, Sammy, Big Mac all fell short. Andruw will, too; I doubt his BA will be high enough to keep him hitting HRs at a 600 HR pace once he's past 35.

That being said, Andruw is a likely HOFer. He is 50-50 to get to 500 HRs, and if he hits 40 HRs this year, his chances go up significantly. He started young, and he's been consistent from year to year, so he's a known quantity. Barring an unforseen injury or illness, it's hard to see Jones not making the HOF, and he's the kind of player who'd have a shot if he blew out his knee tomorrow and his career was over.

Jones has averaged 34.75 home runs per year over the past 8 seasons. Lets say for the sake of the argument that he keeps up that pace to age 35. That is 7 more seasons and a total of 243 home runs. That will give him 544 home runs through age 35. Even if he only plays 3 seasons after that averaging just 19 homers a year that puts him at 601.

[The Ghost of GSP]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that Andruw will not make the Hall of Fame. I've never seen him as a real impact hitter (with the exception of the 1996 Series, of course), an observation that is supported with a quick check of his rate stats. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml) His defense hasn't been Golden for the last couple of years, and might even become a liability as he continues to put on weight. And who would dare move him? Not Bobby Cox, who allows Chipper & his machete to man the Hot Corner (which is one of the reasons the Braves traded Andy Marte for a big contract). He's never been a student of his craft, and lacks the bat speed that forgives a wandering mind. His plate discipline continues to disappoint. Andruw may very well become the King of Counting Stats, but he'll never be great. At least Chipper has the bat to get in.

[Goooooo]

I think he will. He's pete rose with power. A stat compiler. Writers like that. He'll retire with a worse batting average than reggie jackson, but with a lot of homers.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

I voted yes and would have voted for "Hell yes! Are you joking?!"

I think he'll likely end up with around 580-600 homers. By that time, hopefully the hall will recognize the need for 500 to no longer be the "bar."

Hopefully he'll strikeout fewer and fewer times per year while his batting average and plate discipline (walks) increase. The new batting stance seems to be paying off. If he does this, along with maintaining his conditioning, I think he could have a legit case for top 20. In the mold of Mays 5 tool wise. I really don't see that he's lost much of a step in center either. He's certainly not as light on his feet as he once was, but his intincts are still incredible. His muscle gain is a slight tradeoff; power at the plate for slightly less acceleration in the field. His arm is something that baffles me. Most players who have a great arm, have no problem maintaining it, even into their mid 30's. For some reason, his seems to not be what it once was. Still great though.

[Cougar]

I voted yes. His offensive counting stats are likely to be overwhelming, even if he only does 75% of what Sockeye's projecting. With his sterling defense in CF and abundant playoff heroics (much of them cumulative, granted), that ought to be more than enough.

[Sockeye]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that Andruw will not make the Hall of Fame. I've never seen him as a real impact hitter (with the exception of the 1996 Series, of course), an observation that is supported with a quick check of his rate stats. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml) His defense hasn't been Golden for the last couple of years, and might even become a liability as he continues to put on weight. And who would dare move him? Not Bobby Cox, who allows Chipper & his machete to man the Hot Corner (which is one of the reasons the Braves traded Andy Marte for a big contract). He's never been a student of his craft, and lacks the bat speed that forgives a wandering mind. His plate discipline continues to disappoint. Andruw may very well become the King of Counting Stats, but he'll never be great. At least Chipper has the bat to get in.

You must have pulled a rip van winkle then and been asleep since 1996. You definitely slept through all of last season. 51 home runs and 128 RBI's. Not an impact player??? 8 gold gloves in a row. When Chipper Jones went down last season Andruw Jones single handily put the Braves on his back and carried them to the post season. Without any protection in the lineup even. What makes Andruw Jones the best defensive outfielder in the game today is the jump he gets on balls and the route he takes to catch them. His defensive insticts are quite possibly the best of any outfielder in history.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that Andruw will not make the Hall of Fame. I've never seen him as a real impact hitter (with the exception of the 1996 Series, of course), an observation that is supported with a quick check of his rate stats. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml) His defense hasn't been Golden for the last couple of years, and might even become a liability as he continues to put on weight. And who would dare move him? Not Bobby Cox, who allows Chipper & his machete to man the Hot Corner (which is one of the reasons the Braves traded Andy Marte for a big contract). He's never been a student of his craft, and lacks the bat speed that forgives a wandering mind. His plate discipline continues to disappoint. Andruw may very well become the King of Counting Stats, but he'll never be great. At least Chipper has the bat to get in.

Hmmm. Bobby Cox has won more consecutive division titles than anyone, five pennants, and a World Championship. Ya think he knows SOMETHING about what position a player ought to play?

Jones is not the best player in the game, but he's a clear-cut star. He's a low BA/good secondary average guy whose a Gold Glover. (And it's Andruw's contemporaries who vote him the Gold Glove over Edmonds, Beltran, and various others.) Low average/good secondary average stars with good gloves have always been underrated, but Jones is clearly a star, and then some.

[baseballPAP]

I think he will. He's pete rose with power. A stat compiler. Writers like that. He'll retire with a worse batting average than reggie jackson, but with a lot of homers.
Pete Rose with power? That is about as far off base as any comparison I've ever seen.

[yankillaz]

Through age 28 Willie Mays had hit 250 career home runs and had hit 36, 35, 29, and 34 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. He then went on to hit another 410 homeruns over the next 14 seasons to finish with 660

Through age 28 Andruw Jones has hit 301 career home runs and had hit 35, 36, 29, and 51 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. I predict Andruw Jones will hit another 361 home runs over the next 12 seasons to finish with 662.

Comparing Andruw Jones with Willie Mays...ummm, that's a very bold prediction. Are you sure that things will go that way??? I doubt it. To say that Andruw Jones is a 40 homer-a-season type of player is ludicrous. He did hit 51 last season, but 36 was his previous high. He's a 30 homer-a-year type of player during his 21-27 years, does that mean he'll neccesarily raise that average?

Your whole assumption is based on soft grounds. I doubt very much that he'll end his career how you say, since the player you're comparing him to is a one in a lifetime player. Jones is not in the career form of say, Ken Griffey Jr, and even to Griffey it might be difficult to acomplish those numbers. Why would it happen to Andruw???

PS. Now, if you wish he'd finish his career with those stats...that's another story.

[Cougar]

Through age 28 Willie Mays had hit 250 career home runs and had hit 36, 35, 29, and 34 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. He then went on to hit another 410 homeruns over the next 14 seasons to finish with 660

Through age 28 Andruw Jones has hit 301 career home runs and had hit 35, 36, 29, and 51 home runs in his previous 4 seasons. I predict Andruw Jones will hit another 361 home runs over the next 12 seasons to finish with 662.

People often forget that Mays missed almost two full seasons (most of 1952 and all of 1953) right after his rookie year due to military service during the Korean Conflict.

Got to take that into account when comparing Mays's numbers in his twenties to anyone else. (If one is so bold as to compare Mays to anyone else in the first place.)

[W_Marone]

I'm also going to have to strongly disagree against Andruw Jones getting 600 career homeruns, he's never going to have another season like the one he had last year....homerun wise.

[digglahhh]

You certainly won't get an argument from me when you say that, especially in the context of this era, Jones's offensive numbers are not at all staggering.

But you have to keep in mind that those numbers are coming from one of the best defensive CFs of all time, certainly the best of his era.

Forget 600 or even 500 HRs. I don't really know how you could keep one of the best defensive CFs of all time out of the Hall with 400 HRs. Ashburn is consideread a solid HOFer and he was a great gloveman in CF with minimal slugging skill but great OBP skill. Jones is a great gloveman in CF with very good slugging skill but only average OBP skill.

Anything can happen with the voters though. They denied the best defensive 1B of all time when he came with a 129 OPS+. So, I guess they could deny one of the best defensive CFs of all time with a (current) 116 OPS+. 1B and CF are basically at the opposite ends of the specturm in terms of defensive importance but then again 13 points of OPS+ is substantial.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jones' chances at 600 come from the fact that he came to the majors at a very, very young age. If he came up at age 22, we'd be speclating about his chances at 500, not about 600.

It's hard for guys to get to 600; again, only four players in baseball history have done so.

People are disappointed in Jones because he hasn't seemed to grow a whole lot since his early years, but he's been consistent from year to year. If he maintains this consistency into his late 30s (which will be tough), he'll get to 600. If he slips to being a .245 hitter from a .265 hitter, he won't make it, but if he stays in the .260s or more, he's got a chance.

[The Ghost of GSP]

Fuzzy Bear:

Hmmm. Bobby Cox has won more consecutive division titles than anyone, five pennants, and a World Championship. Ya think he knows SOMETHING about what position a player ought to play?
No.

Sockeye:

You must have pulled a rip van winkle then and been asleep since 1996. You definitely slept through all of last season. 51 home runs and 128 RBI's. Not an impact player??? 8 gold gloves in a row. When Chipper Jones went down last season Andruw Jones single handily put the Braves on his back and carried them to the post season.
No, I didn't pull a Rip Van Winkle, but Andruw's been pulling a Dorian Gray. You're talking about someone who will likely finish below Dave Kingman in OPS + when his career ends. And for his defense.....I think that he was great from 1998 - 2001, very good for 2002 - 2003, and is average now. Six years (if that) of defensive dominance do not a Hallster make. Check his UZR ratings (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html) - he hasn't been the best for some time now. Now spy his photo if you dare. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5681) A picture is worth a thousand excuses. As far as his last season, stretch runs shine more brightly when they're embedded in an excellent season. 51 homers is nice, but it's not enough if that's all you do. There's more to greatness than compiling counting stats.

[Fuzzy Bear]

No, I didn't pull a Rip Van Winkle, but Andruw's been pulling a Dorian Gray. You're talking about someone who will likely finish below Dave Kingman in OPS + when his career ends. And for his defense.....I think that he was great from 1998 - 2001, very good for 2002 - 2003, and is average now. Six years (if that) of defensive dominance do not a Hallster make. Check his UZR ratings (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html) - he hasn't been the best for some time now. Now spy his photo if you dare. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5681) A picture is worth a thousand excuses. As far as his last season, stretch runs shine more brightly when they're embedded in an excellent season. 51 homers is nice, but it's not enough if that's all you do. There's more to greatness than compiling counting stats.

I highlighted the statements I highlighted because they are simply not supported by the facts. And the Kingman comparision is a red herring; Andruw Jones is to Dave Kingman as Charles Barkley is to Marc Iavaroni.

Kingman is a classic example of a player who could hit HRs and do nothing else; Jones gets on base, runs well, plays Gold Glove defense, and scores runs. Kingman's OPS for his career is .780, while Jones' is .845. He's been above that level 5 of the last 7 years. He's unlikely to ever approach .800 lifetime OPS; he would have to hit like Rob Deer for a period of years in order to do so. Jones has scored over 100 runs three times; Kingman never even came close, not even in his best year.

And what exactly is the basis to say Jones is an average defensive player? He won the Gold Glove; that is evidence that his defense is at least above average. What is the evidence that it is not? (Pictures are not evidence, although stats might be.)

Jones' HOF credentials are not dependent on having a season like last years. He would be on a HOF path if he only hit 35 HRs last year. He's not everything you would want in a player, but he's on a HOF path, and while he may not stay on the path, it is ridiculous, IMO, to assert that Jones is not on a HOF path.

[Sockeye]

Fuzzy Bear:

No.

Sockeye:

No, I didn't pull a Rip Van Winkle, but Andruw's been pulling a Dorian Gray. You're talking about someone who will likely finish below Dave Kingman in OPS + when his career ends. And for his defense.....I think that he was great from 1998 - 2001, very good for 2002 - 2003, and is average now. Six years (if that) of defensive dominance do not a Hallster make. Check his UZR ratings (http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html) - he hasn't been the best for some time now. Now spy his photo if you dare. (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5681) A picture is worth a thousand excuses. As far as his last season, stretch runs shine more brightly when they're embedded in an excellent season. 51 homers is nice, but it's not enough if that's all you do. There's more to greatness than compiling counting stats.

The fact that you say something doesn't make it true. Anyone that watches that game or knows anything about baseball knows that Andruw Jones has been the best defensive OFer in the game of baseball every season dating back to 1998. Including this year. To suggest that Andruw Jones is now merely an average OFer is rediculous.

As for an OPS below Dave Kingman...It sure didn't stop Ryne Sandberg, Brooks Robinson, Robin Yount, Gary Carter, Ozzie Smith, Lou Brock, Richie Ashburn, or 39 other players from being elected to the HOF with a OPS+ at or below that of Dave Kingman (who should be in the HOF).

[baseballPAP]

First, Kingman should have to buy a ticket like all the other guys who didn't play well enough to get in.
Second, Jones' defense has been average or only slightly above the last 2+ seasons. All signs point to him aging poorly...loss of footspeed, putting on weight.... He still takes great routes to the ball, he still gets great jumps. Then again, so does Griffey, but he just can't run anymore, and ends up letting a ton of balls drop in front of him that he would have caught 10 years ago.

[jpenrod]

First I want to clear something up:


Jpenrod, I think CoasttoCoast was saying that Chipper was a DL mainstay.

I think Andruw will get in, and he will most likely hit about 550-600 homers if you ask me. I think 662 is pushing it, but if last year was an indication of things to come then it could happen.

I would agree in his second posthe mention Chipper and the DL, but his first post was:


I would bet a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle that Andruw will not hit 600 homeruns..... As he gains more weight he will become more of a disabled list kinda guy.

To my knowledge Andruw has NEVER been on the DL, so I am not sure why all the sudden he is going to become "a disabled list kinda guy".

Also to the people that are saying Andruw will not get 600 because he will not have another year like last year, HE DOES NOT NEED TO!!!! he only needs to have 10 years of 30 HR average. considering he averaged 28 HR his first 9 seasons and 32 HR/YR his first 8 full seasons (not counting last year) I think 600 is not out of the question.

[CROM]

hes on pace for 42 HRs and 145 RBIs this year.. hes lost a step in the outfield but his instincts more than make up for it.. also.. hes just now reached his prime offensively which is scary.. i expect at least 5+ more years with 35-40+ homeruns a season with good RBI production to go along with it..
hes a definate hall of famer if he follows his current pattern..

[Bravesfan1984]

I do not see offensivly how you think Andruw Jones will be a HOFer if he keeps this up. He is a career 259 hitter who strikes out a ton. Him being 2nd in mvp was a joke the only reason he got it was because he hit 51 home runs. He was batting 262 with an obp of 347 that year

[Cowtipper]

Offense isn't the only thing to take into consideration when looking at a player like Jones. His defensive ability would play a huge role in determining whether he makes it or not. Jones' 10 straight Gold Gloves might get him a lot of votes.

Plus, he's only 31. He still has time to add to his totals.

And Bravesfan, please form coherent sentences with proper punctuation and grammar. Not only would in be easier for us to read, it would make us take you a little more seriously.

[Matthew C.]

I do not see offensivly how you think Andruw Jones will be a HOFer if he keeps this up. He is a career 259 hitter who strikes out a ton. Him being 2nd in mvp was a joke the only reason he got it was because he hit 51 home runs. He was batting 262 with an obp of 347 that year

Got to agree with you on this one. His resume was a tad short before his spiral into suckiness. Everything horrid from here on out is another nail in his HOF coffin.

If he turns it around, than he has a chance.

From Murphy, to Berger, to Edmonds to Williams- to many other CF guys with great gloves (even though not quite up to Jones' level) but massively better offensive numbers ahead of him.

[philkid3]

His defense was so spectacular I was ready to support him as a low tier candidate if he had a graceful decline and a couple more good seasons.

Um. . .

[Matthew C.]

His defense was so spectacular I was ready to support him as a low tier candidate if he had a graceful decline and a couple more good seasons.

Um. . .

Yeah, that is why I said he was a "tad short." He still has time to rebound - but I wouldn't bet money on it.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

He has certainly been one of the best defensive center fielders of all-time. That level of defense from a shortstop or catcher, combined with Andruw's offensive stats, would make for a HOFer. Unfortunately, I don't think it's enough for a center fielder. He needs to pile on more homers and RBIs to make up for his sub-par rate stats. At this writing he is not a significantly better candidate than Matt Williams.

[Bravesfan1984]

You certainly won't get an argument from me when you say that, especially in the context of this era, Jones's offensive numbers are not at all staggering.

But you have to keep in mind that those numbers are coming from one of the best defensive CFs of all time, certainly the best of his era.

Forget 600 or even 500 HRs. I don't really know how you could keep one of the best defensive CFs of all time out of the Hall with 400 HRs. Ashburn is consideread a solid HOFer and he was a great gloveman in CF with minimal slugging skill but great OBP skill. Jones is a great gloveman in CF with very good slugging skill but only average OBP skill.

Anything can happen with the voters though. They denied the best defensive 1B of all time when he came with a 129 OPS+. So, I guess they could deny one of the best defensive CFs of all time with a (current) 116 OPS+. 1B and CF are basically at the opposite ends of the specturm in terms of defensive importance but then again 13 points of OPS+ is substantial.


You can if he is an average offensive player. Being great defensivly will not make up for that.

[Paul Wendt]

His defense was so spectacular I was ready to support him as a low tier candidate if he had a graceful decline and a couple more good seasons.

Um. . .
__________________
Hey, this is my public apology for suddenly disappearing and missing out on any projects I may have neglected.

That's ok. I didn't want to see that NL West project turn out so well as it did. I appreciate that you were there for a couple months, doing the best you could.

[brett]

I see him as a comparable LEVEL of offensive player to Ashburn, and better defensively, but he's still 2 seasons short on longevity and while I'm not against Ashburn being in, he is not automatic for me.

A fantastic fielding CF with around a 110 OPS+ and 2000 games can have a case, but I would like to see maybe some stolen bases there.

Amos Otis had about 2000 games and 114 OPS+ and 300+ steals, though he wasn't on par with Jones defensively. Otis has no HOF case.

Ichiro may land in the same vicinity with 2000 games and a little over a 110 OPS+, but Ichiro could have 500 steals to boot and is close to Jones' class, and he has the historical impact on his side.

For a guy to be a hall of famer with fewer than 2000 games, he really has to have been near the dominant force in his league.

[Mike90]

He's 29 and in his 11th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 3192
At-Bats 11596
Runs 1881
Hits 3097
Doubles 602
Triples 50
Home Runs 662
RBI's 1966
Stolen Bases 200
Walks 1243
AVG .265
OBP .340
SLG .500

In hindsight, these numbers are ridiculous. Actually, these projections were pretty bad even at the time they were made.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

In hindsight, these numbers are ridiculous. Actually, these projections were pretty bad even at the time they were made.

Yeah, 3,000 hits via a .265 average just doesn't happen.

[Sockeye]

It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

Andruw Jones at age 31

1838 games
6625 at-bats
1070 runs
1721 hits
340 doubles
35 triples
372 home runs
1135 RBI
138 stolen bases
746 BB
.260 AVG
.339 OBP
.490 SLG
111 OPS+
3247 total bases
7524 PA's
1111 runs created
5.7 RC/G
.560 OWP
99.0 batting runs
9.2 batting wins
10 black ink
47 gray ink
101 HOF standards
30 HOF monitor
.279 EQA
66.9 WARP1
66.4 WARP3
393 BRAR
164 BRAA
452 FRAR
145 FRAA
256 win shares

[Sockeye]

Previous poll results were 36 yes, 27 no

[Domenic]

Andruw Jones is the greatest defensive center fielder that I've ever seen (though, granted, I'm only 22) and he had some very good seasons with the bat. Prior to 2007-2008, he was consistently solid, and had a Hall of Fame career through that time.

As it stands, I would say he's borderline. His batting average and OBP are sort of ugly, and his 372 HR don't look great for the era. I believe his defense should push him over that line, but I believe the voters will be loath to put him in if he finishes his career on such a sour note.

[PVNICK]

I think these last two seasons have drowned his chances. But for a better glove, is he really better than Vada Pinson, Jim Wynn or Cesar Cedeno among others who all faded young?

[Domenic]

SABR Matt's PCA has Jones as the best defensive center fielder ever, I believe - at least at his peak.

[Sockeye]

I think these last two seasons have drowned his chances. But for a better glove, is he really better than Vada Pinson, Jim Wynn or Cesar Cedeno among others who all faded young?

Lets not stick a fork in Andruw quite yet. He may have something left in the tank after all. Imagine 2000+ hits/400+ homers from a CFer with his defensive skills (452 FRAR/145 FRAA). I'd have a hard time not considering that to be HOF worthy.

[ol' aches and pains]

Lets not stick a fork in Andruw quite yet. He may have something left in the tank after all. Imagine 2000+ hits/400+ homers from a CFer with his defensive skills (452 FRAR/145 FRAA). I'd have a hard time not considering that to be HOF worthy.

I think he's about done, and while I obviously have no evidence to back this up, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he's on the list of 104 players that failed the PED tests in 2003. I offer the attached photographs for the sake of comparison.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think he's about done, and while I obviously have no evidence to back this up, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he's on the list of 104 players that failed the PED tests in 2003. I offer the attached photographs for the sake of comparison.

Jones looks pretty much the same to me in both photos.

[ol' aches and pains]

Jones looks pretty much the same to me in both photos.

If you say so... The second photo dosn't look to me like a guy who's going to play HOF-caliber center field for a number of years.

[Sockeye]

If you say so... The second photo dosn't look to me like a guy who's going to play HOF-caliber center field for a number of years.

He's already played HOF caliber center field for a number of years. If he can play another 2 years of average CF that should be more than sufficient to make him deserving of HOF honors.

[Sockeye]

I think he's about done, and while I obviously have no evidence to back this up, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he's on the list of 104 players that failed the PED tests in 2003. I offer the attached photographs for the sake of comparison.

Andruw Jones was 170 lbs when he came up at the age of 19. Do you expect him to still weigh 170 lbs? No player looks the same at 31 as they did at 19.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If you say so... The second photo dosn't look to me like a guy who's going to play HOF-caliber center field for a number of years.

Yes, I say so. :D Jones simply got fat in mid career. I don't see how you can tell much of anything from the second photo. He's wearing a full length undershirt plus he's wearing a baggy uniform. In the first photo Jones has some muscle on his arms.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I have wondered if Jones lied about his age. He was outstanding as a 20 year old, yet now, he seems to be toast. This is often a sign of a foreign player who gave a birth date 2-3 years earlier than the real date in order to appear to be a more desirable prospect. It's a bit unusual for a guy who is in the bigs as a teenager, and an instant star at age 20, go to seed so suddenly at age 31.

Jones' skill base (low BA, coupled with fair-to-good plate discipline) is not the kind of skills that normally bode for a long career. On the other hand, Jones has had the kind of speed and defensive skills that help a player stay in the bigs as other skills wane. His complete meltdown last year was tough to fathom. He's off to a fast start with Texas this year, but it's only 2 games, so we'll see. Still, Jones' 2008 meltdown is more consistent with a player who's really 2-3 years older than Jones is claiming to be.

[Brad Harris]

Don´t really think Edmonds is comparable to Jones glovewise....Andruw Jones was brilliant with his glove from day one..plus he is EIGHT!!! years younger than Edmonds and already has as many GG´s as Edmonds does...and is almost certain to end his career with more GG´s.

I think this is comparable to Ozzie Smith..some guys are just so brilliant defensively, that you can´t leave them out.
Or are so brilliant defensively early in their careers that they continue to collect awards and honors in their later years based more on their reputation than on their actual performance.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Andruw Jones is nowhere near the player Jim Edmonds is. Even giving Jones the defensive edge, Edmonds' edge in OWP is 99 points (.659-.560). That's a HUGE difference in offensive ability, and given that Edmonds has also been a GG-caliber center fielder, it's not reasonable to believe that Jones has enough of a defensive advantage to make up the difference.

If Jones makes it to the HOF, it will be due to (A) getting his career back on track, to where he can (B) rack up a few more GG awards (possible) and (C) complile 500 HRs. It's possible he can do this, even now, if last year was an aberration, and if he's really as young as he claims to be. If he hangs in there, defensively, he'll get enough playing time to compile stats.

Short of 500 HRs, I can't see Jones as a HOFer. The BBWAA appears, IMO, to have a clear bias against guys who have early, sudden finishes to their careers. The writers like guys that finish strong, and Jones is not likely to do that. If his career ended now, he'd be one-and-done. If he gets 500 HRs, he'll get in on his defense. Whether or not he'll deserve it at that point is debatable, but it would be hard to argue against him if he rights his course and pulls it off.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I have wondered if Jones lied about his age. He was outstanding as a 20 year old, yet now, he seems to be toast.
Jones was NOT outstanding as a 20 year old. He hit .231/.329/.416. One good sign is that his OBP was almost 100 points above his BA. As a 21 year old he improved to .271/.321/.515.



This is often a sign of a foreign player who gave a birth date 2-3 years earlier than the real date in order to appear to be a more desirable prospect. It's a bit unusual for a guy who is in the bigs as a teenager, and an instant star at age 20, go to seed so suddenly at age 31.
Can you name any star major league league latin player that was later discovered to be three years old than claimed? Most often the gap is 1-2 years.



Jones' skill base (low BA, coupled with fair-to-good plate discipline) is not the kind of skills that normally bode for a long career. On the other hand, Jones has had the kind of speed and defensive skills that help a player stay in the bigs as other skills wane. His complete meltdown last year was tough to fathom. He's off to a fast start with Texas this year, but it's only 2 games, so we'll see. Still, Jones' 2008 meltdown is more consistent with a player who's really 2-3 years older than Jones is claiming to be.

When Jones arrived in the majors he had incredible speed, one of the fastest players in the league. But he was never a great base stealer. And it seems he didn't take conditioning seriously.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jones was NOT outstanding as a 20 year old. He hit .231/.329/.416. One good sign is that his OBP was almost 100 points above his BA. As a 21 year old he improved to .271/.321/.515.


True, but Jones was in the major leagues. It's only a tiny, tiny fraction of major leaguers, period, that are in the major leagues at age 20.

A disproportionate number of guys in the big leagues between ages 18-20 were "bonus babies"; guys who were required to be on a MLB roster due to the size of their signing bonus. This was an issue prior to the establishment of the FA draft, and it's why a number of guys, some of whom never turned out to be any good, were on MLB rosters as 18-20 year olds. This doesn't happen anymore; a guy on an MLB roster at those ages is usually something quite special.

I consider it outstanding that Jones was in the major leagues, period. He wasn't a star at age 20, but, truly, neither were Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays. Junior Griffey was OK as a rookie, but not a star.


Can you name any star major league league latin player that was later discovered to be three years old than claimed? Most often the gap is 1-2 years.

Alfonso Soriano was originally believed to have been born in 1979; his current birth year is listed as 1976.

Junior Felix was considered one of the hottest prospects as a rookie. He was traded, and after being traded it was learned that he was 3 years older (at least) than his original age. (It's amazing that much is made of steriods, but this falsifying of ages, which amounts to misrepresenting the value of a team's assets, gets the once-over, and is never talked about.)


When Jones arrived in the majors he had incredible speed, one of the fastest players in the league. But he was never a great base stealer. And it seems he didn't take conditioning seriously.

A player who comes up as young as Jones did is going to increase in body size as a function of age. Barry Bonds was 22 as a rookie; Jones was 20 (or, at least, he was listed as 20 in his first full season).

[Paul Wendt]

Junior Felix was considered one of the hottest prospects as a rookie. He was traded, and after being traded it was learned that he was 3 years older (at least) than his original age. (It's amazing that much is made of steriods, but this falsifying of ages, which amounts to misrepresenting the value of a team's assets, gets the once-over, and is never talked about.)
I don't think it's amazing. You are talking like the corporate accountant.

Much of the USAmerican labor market is governed by rules against age discrimination or rules against inquiring about age.

I think most people consider giving an age to a prospective employer just another form of marketing. Those same corporations falsify their products three times a day in their marketing departments. The Bears are better than ever. The Bears are running wild on the bases. The Bears are all about customer service. :rolleyes:

>> misrepresenting the value of a team's assets

That is the ballclub's problem. It may feel obliged to value assets properly in reports to its owners and its prospective owners --or even in those sales pitches to fans.

[Brad Harris]

That is the ballclub's problem. It may feel obliged to value assets properly in reports to its owners and its prospective owners --or even in those sales pitches to fans.
Hardly because it creates inefficiencies in the organization's decision-making process where consistently putting the best product on the field for the consumer is the goal. Furthermore, there's a big difference between making misleading statements and flat-out lying. These players are committing fraud by signing contracts under a falsely given age.

Additionally, the idea that this is only a problem for their club fails in light of the cottage industry of fantasy baseball. What about all those fantasy owners who were defrauded? ;)

[brett]

SABR Matt's PCA has Jones as the best defensive center fielder ever, I believe - at least at his peak.

And Matt's emphasis on defense would have Jones as a HOFer right now (though he also has Max Carey as a top 35 player, and Jeter and Chipper probably still outside the hall by a hair or two.

[Domenic]

I'm not using Matt's word or methods as gospel - merely echoing the sentiment that Jones' defense was historically exceptional, and using PCA to back that up.

[brett]

I'm not using Matt's word or methods as gospel - merely echoing the sentiment that Jones' defense was historically exceptional, and using PCA to back that up.

I don't disagree with him. I think that when defense is factored into some players' value you can get a large swing in where they rank, and Jones is the best rate centerfielder of all time.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

True, but Jones was in the major leagues. It's only a tiny, tiny fraction of major leaguers, period, that are in the major leagues at age 20.
Sure. But you said Jones was outstanding as a 20 year old. He wasn't. He real breakout year didn't really come until his age 23 season.



A disproportionate number of guys in the big leagues between ages 18-20 were "bonus babies"; guys who were required to be on a MLB roster due to the size of their signing bonus. This was an issue prior to the establishment of the FA draft, and it's why a number of guys, some of whom never turned out to be any good, were on MLB rosters as 18-20 year olds. This doesn't happen anymore; a guy on an MLB roster at those ages is usually something quite special.

Usually but not always. Benji Gil reached the majors at age 20. Adrian Beltre debuted at age 19. Cesar Cedeno, Alfredo Griffin, Ricky Seilheimer, Willie Mo Pena, and Brian Harper all debuted at age 19 or 20.



I consider it outstanding that Jones was in the major leagues, period.

You previous statement was vague. You said Jones was outstanding at age 20. That implied that he was actually, you know, an outstanding performer.



He wasn't a star at age 20, but, truly, neither were Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays.
Willie Mays was the NL Rookie of the Year as a 20 year old in 1951. As a 20 year old Mantle put up a 162 OPS+ and finished 3rd in the MVP voting in 1952.


Junior Griffey was OK as a rookie, but not a star.
As a rookie Griffey was 3rd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and put up a 108 OPS+. Jones put a 93 OPS+ as a 20 year old. That' a big gap if you ask me.



Alfonso Soriano was originally believed to have been born in 1979; his current birth year is listed as 1976.
I seem to remember his original stated birth year was 1978 not 1979.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2842



Junior Felix was considered one of the hottest prospects as a rookie. He was traded, and after being traded it was learned that he was 3 years older (at least) than his original age. (It's amazing that much is made of steriods, but this falsifying of ages, which amounts to misrepresenting the value of a team's assets, gets the once-over, and is never talked about.)
I remember Felix quite well. But he was never a star player. I don't really remember the age gap off hand but according to BBF Felix was born in 1967 and made his debut at age 21. Did people really thing that Felix was 18 years old in 1989 when he debuted in the majors?



A player who comes up as young as Jones did is going to increase in body size as a function of age. Barry Bonds was 22 as a rookie; Jones was 20 (or, at least, he was listed as 20 in his first full season).
Actually Bonds was 21 as a rookie. :)

[Cougar]

If he's got anything left in the tank...one decent comeback season...he probably limps in. Keeping a CF glove as good as Andruw's out with 400 HR is a little hard to imagine.

But right now his cumulative numbers are clearly short, no matter how you slice them.

Is there anything left in the tank? He's off to a good start this year, for what that's worth (probably not a lot).

[Fuzzy Bear]

If he's got anything left in the tank...one decent comeback season...he probably limps in. Keeping a CF glove as good as Andruw's out with 400 HR is a little hard to imagine.

But right now his cumulative numbers are clearly short, no matter how you slice them.

Is there anything left in the tank? He's off to a good start this year, for what that's worth (probably not a lot).

I'm not sure if Jones gets in unless he gets back to close to where he was and keeps it there for a few years. The HOF voters don't take kindly to sudden early flameouts. If they didn't pick Albert Belle, they aren't going to pick Andruw Jones, defense and all.

[Cougar]

I'm not sure if Jones gets in unless he gets back to close to where he was and keeps it there for a few years. The HOF voters don't take kindly to sudden early flameouts. If they didn't pick Albert Belle, they aren't going to pick Andruw Jones, defense and all.

That's true, but I don't think Belle's a very good comparison. He's not off the BBWAA ballot because of an early flameout; he's off because he's a jerk of historic proportions. The early flameout is just an excuse.

A better comparison -- maybe Dale Murphy, another Braves CF. Murphy had a better bat -- perhaps even much better -- but wasn't a historically great defensive center fielder for 10 years, merely a very good one for about five or seven, plus a couple years as a strong RF glove.

Murphy's flameout -- more prolonged than Andruw's (so far) -- has obscured his seven or eight seasons as one of the top half dozen players in the game.

[Bravesfan1984]

I just do not see it unless he goes on a tear and given his age that probably will not happen. Out of 14 seasons he has only 5 with over 100 rbis. Only 2 years he had over 40 homers and he has one top 5 mvp finish and two top ten. As great as he is defensivly it will not make up for him being an average hitter 500 home runs or not.

[Jsquared83]

I think he needs two more '04 type years at a minimum to have a legit shot. I just don't think he'll get enough at bats to pile up some nice round #'s, 500 HR, 1500 RBI seem way out of reach, even 2000 hits may be a struggle for him. His career #s look prolly like a Joe Carter with a bunch of GGs. Even Dale Murphy belongs way sooner than Andruw.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It would help Jones if he became a regular in Texas; he's listed as UT (utility). He is, IMO, a better option than Marlon Byrd, the guy who has the job, and he's probably a better option than David Murphy (LF), Chris Davis (1B), or Hank Blalock (DH) at this point.

Jones is doing well in a part-time role; he's up to 371 HRs for his career. At this point, 500 is a longshot; he'll have to get back into the lineup on a regular basis. If he does that, he'll do it on his defense, and he'll salvage some of his reputation as a star. In the right place, he can do it, and Texas COULD be the right place, but it seems to me like the Rangers don't recognize him as better options than some of the other guys they're playing. I give Jones a 10% shot at 500 HRs, and only a 70% shot at 400 HRs, but he might surprise.

[Second Base Coach]

Jones will be lumped in with the truckload of guys who fell apart after PEDs testing started. This in no way suggests that he was using PEDS, but the timing is there, and that gives reason to wonder.

Because he will be categorized in this fashion, he will be WELL short of the HOF.

Either that or voters will insist HOFers play well after they turn thirty.

[Freakshow]

All players 1600+ games in CF and 7000+ PA

Cnt Player OPS+ RC PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Mickey Mantle 172 2038 9909 1951 1968
2 Ty Cobb 167 2522 13072 1905 1928
3 Tris Speaker 158 2154 11988 1907 1928
4 Willie Mays 156 2368 12493 1951 1973
5 Joe DiMaggio 155 1569 7671 1936 1951
6 Ken Griffey 137 1961 10963 1989 2009
7 Jim Edmonds 132 1364 7708 1993 2008
8 Edd Roush 126 1184 8156 1913 1931
9 Bernie Williams 125 1445 9053 1991 2006
10 Amos Otis 114 1114 8246 1967 1984
11 Andruw Jones 111 1128 7660 1996 2009
12 Richie Ashburn 111 1334 9736 1948 1962
13 Brett Butler 110 1276 9545 1981 1997
14 Vada Pinson 110 1393 10403 1958 1975
15 Dummy Hoy 110 999 8369 1888 1902
16 Clyde Milan 109 903 8312 1907 1922
17 Mike Cameron 107 1002 7083 1995 2009
18 Kenny Lofton 107 1386 9234 1991 2007
19 Max Carey 107 1339 10770 1910 1929
20 Willie Davis 106 1185 9822 1960 1979
21 Steve Finley 104 1416 10460 1989 2007
22 Lloyd Waner 99 1086 8326 1927 1945
23 Devon White 98 1022 8080 1985 2001
24 Marquis Grissom 92 1101 8959 1989 2005
25 Doc Cramer 87 1149 9933 1929 1948

[Cougar]

All players 1600+ games in CF and 7000+ PA

Cnt Player OPS+ RC PA From To
+----+-----------------+----+----+-----+----+----+
1 Mickey Mantle 172 2038 9909 1951 1968
2 Ty Cobb 167 2522 13072 1905 1928
3 Tris Speaker 158 2154 11988 1907 1928
4 Willie Mays 156 2368 12493 1951 1973
5 Joe DiMaggio 155 1569 7671 1936 1951
6 Ken Griffey 137 1961 10963 1989 2009
7 Jim Edmonds 132 1364 7708 1993 2008
8 Edd Roush 126 1184 8156 1913 1931
9 Bernie Williams 125 1445 9053 1991 2006
10 Amos Otis 114 1114 8246 1967 1984
11 Andruw Jones 111 1128 7660 1996 2009
12 Richie Ashburn 111 1334 9736 1948 1962
13 Brett Butler 110 1276 9545 1981 1997
14 Vada Pinson 110 1393 10403 1958 1975
15 Dummy Hoy 110 999 8369 1888 1902
16 Clyde Milan 109 903 8312 1907 1922
17 Mike Cameron 107 1002 7083 1995 2009
18 Kenny Lofton 107 1386 9234 1991 2007
19 Max Carey 107 1339 10770 1910 1929
20 Willie Davis 106 1185 9822 1960 1979
21 Steve Finley 104 1416 10460 1989 2007
22 Lloyd Waner 99 1086 8326 1927 1945
23 Devon White 98 1022 8080 1985 2001
24 Marquis Grissom 92 1101 8959 1989 2005
25 Doc Cramer 87 1149 9933 1929 1948

Duke Snider's absence jumped out at me instantly.

Turns out, the Duke is 11 games in CF short of Freakshow's cutoff (1589).

For the record, his OPS+ is 140 and his RC is 1477 in 8237 PA between 1947 and 1964.

[Freakshow]

Duke Snider's absence jumped out at me instantly.

Turns out, the Duke is 11 games in CF short of Freakshow's cutoff (1589).

For the record, his OPS+ is 140 and his RC is 1477 in 8237 PA between 1947 and 1964.Interesting. Had I known that I might have lowered the cutoff.

Jones is at +7500 PA and +1700 CF games. I set the cutoffs a bit below where he's at (7000 and 1600). I notice that this brought Mike Cameron onto the list, who cleared both marks in 2009.

EDIT: Fred Lynn is similar to Snider, missing the cutoff by 16 games. His OPS+ is 129, RC is 1232, PA is 7923 from 1974-1990.

[Cowtipper]

I find it hard to believe that Jones could be done relatively soon...I mean, he's only 32! And he was once awesome! He's only 112 home runs away from 500...I've got my fingers crossed. He only needs 14 a year if he plays until 40...or he could make it easier on himself and play until he's 45 - that way he can space them out more and hit only nine a year from here on out.

[Cougar]

I find it hard to believe that Jones could be done relatively soon...I mean, he's only 32! And he was once awesome! He's only 112 home runs away from 500...I've got my fingers crossed. He only needs 14 a year if he plays until 40...or he could make it easier on himself and play until he's 45 - that way he can space them out more and hit only nine a year from here on out.

If Jones is only hitting 14 HR a season, he's not going to stay on major league rosters until age 40. Maybe if he were still a GG in center field, but those days have passed us by.

The way he's spiraling the drain, 400 HR would be a signal achievement.

[cardsfanatic]

I would put Edmonds and Bernie in before Jones. Although, I'm not entirely convinced any of those three deserve it. But if I were forced to put in a CF'er other than Griffey from this era, I would look at those two before Andruw.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I would put Edmonds and Bernie in before Jones. Although, I'm not entirely convinced any of those three deserve it. But if I were forced to put in a CF'er other than Griffey from this era, I would look at those two before Andruw.

I'm kind of in agreement, in that I rank Edmonds first, Bernie second, and Jones, well . . .

Jones is done as a HOF candidate because he can't play CF regularly anymore. What Jones needed to do to get back into the HOF chase is play CF at Gold Glove levels regularly, plus hang in long enough to get to 500 HRs. Jones' low BA was always going to be an issue, but 500 HRs is 500 HRs, and coupled with the kind of defense Jones turned in for most of his career, that would keep him in the discussion, and would probably get him in the HOF, even if he had a long wait.

The stats tell Jones' story of growing old and losing his speed. Jones actually hit for as much power per AB as he usually did (granting that his current park helped him out a bit), and he actually took strides forward in plate discipline. All of this is offset by a .214 BA, and the fact that (A) Jones was a half-timer this year, (B) playing DH and corner OF positions, but never playing CF.

I don't know what that tells you, but it tells me that Jones has lost a lot of speed in a short time, and can't cover CF anymore. Maybe I'm wrong; maybe Jones was working through a temporary injury. But his body type doesn't lend itself to that explanation. I think he's grown slow, and he's played his last game as a regular CF. Jones doesn't hit enough to be a regular corner OF, and it will be well before 500 HRs that his playing time is extinguished if I'm right about this. I have trouble seeing Andruw Jones in the major leagues in 2011.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I'm kind of in agreement, in that I rank Edmonds first, Bernie second, and Jones, well . . .

Jones is done as a HOF candidate because he can't play CF regularly anymore. What Jones needed to do to get back into the HOF chase is play CF at Gold Glove levels regularly, plus hang in long enough to get to 500 HRs. Jones' low BA was always going to be an issue, but 500 HRs is 500 HRs, and coupled with the kind of defense Jones turned in for most of his career, that would keep him in the discussion, and would probably get him in the HOF, even if he had a long wait.

The stats tell Jones' story of growing old and losing his speed. Jones actually hit for as much power per AB as he usually did (granting that his current park helped him out a bit), and he actually took strides forward in plate discipline. All of this is offset by a .214 BA, and the fact that (A) Jones was a half-timer this year, (B) playing DH and corner OF positions, but never playing CF.

I don't know what that tells you, but it tells me that Jones has lost a lot of speed in a short time, and can't cover CF anymore. Maybe I'm wrong; maybe Jones was working through a temporary injury. But his body type doesn't lend itself to that explanation. I think he's grown slow, and he's played his last game as a regular CF. Jones doesn't hit enough to be a regular corner OF, and it will be well before 500 HRs that his playing time is extinguished if I'm right about this. I have trouble seeing Andruw Jones in the major leagues in 2011.
Jones simply got fat. When he came up he had sprinter's speed. I remember reading about he had his father's body type and his dad could still run fast even in middle age. Apparently, Jones liked to eat and just go fat.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jones simply got fat. When he came up he had sprinter's speed. I remember reading about he had his father's body type and his dad could still run fast even in middle age. Apparently, Jones liked to eat and just go fat.

If that's the case, well, he needs motivation. If it's just that he gained weight, a conditioning program would help him regain some of the speed he lost.

Jones is still collecting on his Dodger contract (I think) which is enormous. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy consumed about the HOF, so I'm not sure he's going to have the kind of drive necessary to lose the pounds and do what he has to do.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If that's the case, well, he needs motivation. If it's just that he gained weight, a conditioning program would help him regain some of the speed he lost.

Jones is still collecting on his Dodger contract (I think) which is enormous. He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy consumed about the HOF, so I'm not sure he's going to have the kind of drive necessary to lose the pounds and do what he has to do.


If Jones took PEDs that could be a problem, too. Some players just lose this footspeed at a relatively young age. I seem to remember in one of Reggie Jackson's autobiographies, Reggie wrote about how fast Rick Monday was in college. But by age 30 Monday had average speed.

[Cougar]

If Jones took PEDs that could be a problem, too. Some players just lose this footspeed at a relatively young age. I seem to remember in one of Reggie Jackson's autobiographies, Reggie wrote about how fast Rick Monday was in college. But by age 30 Monday had average speed.

Speed is usually the first thing to go. There are no old sprinters. Staying in shape helps, but only so much.

[dominik]

He was a suberb defender(some say best CF ever) and powerfull hitter. he lacks a little OBP(only .339 career which is poor) and patience but the start of his career was great nontheless.
But then followed a bad early decline with seemed to derail his HOF chances.

This year he seems to bounce back a little. already six HRs and hitting for a good avg. of course the sample size is small and this might be flukish, but he lost a lot of weight and worked hard this offseason. so he seems to be serious to play some good ball although he will likely not reach the heights of his best seasons he might be able to put together a few more solid seasons since he's only 33.

what do you think? He will hit his 400th HR this year. I think if he gets to 450+ HRs his 10 GGs in CF will lift him in. but he needs 2 or 3 more solid seasons.

[Cougar]

He'll probably get to 400, but before we get really excited remember Andruw got off to a hot start last season, and then cooled off considerably.

It's an open question whether he still has it in him to produce in 135-140 games at a consistently high level.

[Cougar]

If Andruw gets to 400 HR while maintaining his .258 career BA, he'll have the fourth lowest career BA in the 400 HR club (he'll be the 46th member if no one else gets there first).

Only Harmon Killebrew (573 HR, .256 BA...in the 1960's; walked a lot, for a .376 OBP), Darrell Evans (414 HR, .248 BA in the 1970's and 1980's...and he walked a ton -- .361 OBP) and the ultimate outlier Dave Kingman (442 HR, .236 BA) would have lower BA's. Kingman will never be in the HOF; Evans has some supporters but probably won't make it either.

I'm not arguing against Jones here -- 400+ HR and a decade of all-time CF defense might well be enough to merit Cooperstown. I'm just pointing out historical parallels.

[Brad Harris]

Does anyone here already have Jones in their top 20-25 MLB center fielders?

[ol' aches and pains]

Jones is showing signs of life so far this year. He's lost weight and looks to be in the best shape I've seen him in for years. If he's really only 33, he may still have a few productive years ahead of him. The White Sox are using him at the corner OF positions and at DH, he doesn't play CF anymore, but he hasn't embarrassed himself in the field yet. So far he has 6 home runs and 8 walks in 57 PA's and has a pretty respectable 191 OPS+ (I know, SSS :waving ). If he can play regularly and productively for another 4-5 years, he may pad his stats enough to be considered HOF material. Barring any unfortunate disclosures, of course. I'm guilty of suspecting him myself.

[Matthew C.]

Does anyone here already have Jones in their top 20-25 MLB center fielders?

Yeah - around 18 or so. Assuming he is not found to have been using 'roids and continues his comeback, he may just make it.

[Los Bravos]

I think if he gets to 450+ HRs his 10 GGs in CF will lift him in. but he needs 2 or 3 more solid seasons.
If he can play regularly and productively for another 4-5 years, he may pad his stats enough to be considered HOF material. Barring any unfortunate disclosures, of course.
Assuming he is not found to have been using 'roids and continues his comeback, he may just make it.I'll co-sign on all of this.

I love the guy, so I have my fingers crossed for him.

[dominik]

I agree that his hitting is not as good as his 400 HRs suggest. even before the decline he didn't live up to his hitting potential. he had and still has tremendous power but he always lacked a good eye and selectivity/patience at the plate which cost him on avg,obp and ops.

But his defense was on a level with mays for a almost a decade, so he might have an ozzie case. the 400 HRs are just a plus to him(which he needs because he is a CF which might be as difficult as 2nd base at max and no SS). but 450 or so would of course even better, 500 would make him a lock.

[dgarza]

Does anyone here already have Jones in their top 20-25 MLB center fielders?No. Any I can't see him getting that high up. I've got him around #35 at best. Although he's doing good so far this year, his last 3 seasons show an unimpressive pattern for a guy in his early 30s. I'm guessing he'll be on the out side looking towards borderline (a la Freddy Lynn???).

[Sockeye]

1149 runs
1836 hits
367 doubles
36 triples
406 home runs
1216 RBI
152 stolen bases
829 walks
.256 AVG
.338 OBP
.488 SLG
111 OPS+
3493 total bases
1186 runs created
59.8 WAR
10 gold gloves

That's good enough for me! He's a HOFer in my book.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

1149 runs
1836 hits
367 doubles
36 triples
406 home runs
1216 RBI
152 stolen bases
829 walks
.256 AVG
.338 OBP
.488 SLG
111 OPS+
3493 total bases
1186 runs created
59.8 WAR
10 gold gloves

That's good enough for me! He's a HOFer in my book.

Your book is too big for my liking.

[dominik]

Your book is too big for my liking.

Right. His hitting is lacking. his power was of course veryy good, but his avg. is not good and unlike other sluggers he doesn't compensate with walks.

But on the other hand he played about 8 years of historic defense at CF. that is worth a lot.
Still with his big decline he is not in IMO. He would need to get to 500 HR I think. He doesn't look as can stay in the game long enough to do it(he has about 90 to go-so he would need about 5 seasons of 20 to get there which means he would need to play till 38 which seems unlikely with him nearing the mendoza line).

With 500 it is of course impossible to deny him. 500 HRs+one of the best CFs ever(defensively) guarantees one getting in no one how bad the other stats are. But this is a VERY long way to go for him.

[Cougar]

Right. His hitting is lacking. his power was of course veryy good, but his avg. is not good and unlike other sluggers he doesn't compensate with walks.

But on the other hand he played about 8 years of historic defense at CF. that is worth a lot.
Still with his big decline he is not in IMO. He would need to get to 500 HR I think. He doesn't look as can stay in the game long enough to do it(he has about 90 to go-so he would need about 5 seasons of 20 to get there which means he would need to play till 38 which seems unlikely with him nearing the mendoza line).

With 500 it is of course impossible to deny him. 500 HRs+one of the best CFs ever(defensively) guarantees one getting in no one how bad the other stats are. But this is a VERY long way to go for him.

Jones's walk rate isn't too bad; he's no Jim Thome, but in most seasons beyond his first few, his OBP has been .100 points more than his BA. That's a pretty good benchmark for solid plate discipline.

[dominik]

Jones's walk rate isn't too bad; he's no Jim Thome, but in most seasons beyond his first few, his OBP has been .100 points more than his BA. That's a pretty good benchmark for solid plate discipline.

still .338 OPB is very low for a HOFer.

[Sockeye]

Your book is too big for my liking.

Offensive numbers alone make him borderline. Add in the fact he is one of the greatest defensive CFers of all time and it pushes him well over the line. Consider this

WAR

Andruw Jones 59.8
Sammy Sosa 59.7
Dave Winfield 59.7
Mike Piazza 59.1
Vladimir Guerrero 58.7
Willie Stargell 57.5
Billy Williams 57.2
Andre Dawson 57.0

Winfield, Stargell, & Williams are all unquestionable HOFers. Piazza is likely a future 1st ballot HOFer. Sosa should be based solely on his numbers and not the politics of the game. If Guerrero retired after this season he'd be a virtual lock. Dawson was just elected as a CFer. A similar player to Jones. Slightly better offensively, not as good defensively. If all of these players deserve to be HOFers (and they all do). Then Andruw Jones deserves to be in as well.

[Sockeye]

still .338 OPB is very low for a HOFer.

Andre Dawson and his .323 OBP would like a word with you!

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Offensive numbers alone make him borderline. Add in the fact he is one of the greatest defensive CFers of all time and it pushes him well over the line. Consider this

WAR

Andruw Jones 59.8
Sammy Sosa 59.7
Dave Winfield 59.7
Mike Piazza 59.1
Vladimir Guerrero 58.7
Willie Stargell 57.5
Billy Williams 57.2
Andre Dawson 57.0

Winfield, Stargell, & Williams are all unquestionable HOFers. Piazza is likely a future 1st ballot HOFer. Sosa should be based solely on his numbers and not the politics of the game. If Guerrero retired after this season he'd be a virtual lock. Dawson was just elected as a CFer. A similar player to Jones. Slightly better offensively, not as good defensively. If all of these players deserve to be HOFers (and they all do). Then Andruw Jones deserves to be in as well.

But if you just go by WAR, Keith Hernandez (61), Buddy Bell (60.8), Willie Randolph (60.5), Reggie Smith (63.1), Graig Nettles (61.6), Sal Bando (60.6), Jimmy Wynn (59.8), Luis Tiant (59.4) and perhaps Ken Boyer & Jack Glasscock deserve to be in the HOF as well, when quite frankly, they don't.

[Sockeye]

But if you just go by WAR, Keith Hernandez (61), Buddy Bell (60.8), Willie Randolph (60.5), Reggie Smith (63.1), Graig Nettles (61.6), Sal Bando (60.6), Jimmy Wynn (59.8), Luis Tiant (59.4) and perhaps Ken Boyer (58.4) & Jack Glasscock (58.7) deserve to be in the HOF as well, when quite frankly, they don't.

Each of those players have their supporters though and are considered as boarderline. Lets look at them through age 33.

Keith Hernandez 59.8
Jimmy Wynn 57.5
Buddy Bell 56.7
Sal Bando 55.5
Reggie Smith 54.4
Ken Boyer 51.8
Jack Glasscock 51.1
Willie Randolph 49.3
Graig Nettles 47.6
Luis Tiant 42.4

The average player on your list added another 7.8 WAR after age 33. Add 7.8 to Andruw Jones total and he ends up with 67.6

[Freakshow]

Most WAR, 1300+ G in CF and 7400+ PA

Rk Player WAR/pos PA From To
1 Ty Cobb 159.4 13068 1905 1928 H
2 Willie Mays 154.7 12493 1951 1973 H
3 Tris Speaker 133.0 11988 1907 1928 H
4 Mickey Mantle 120.2 9909 1951 1968 H
5 Joe DiMaggio 83.6 7671 1936 1951 H
6 Ken Griffey 78.4 11304 1989 2010
7 Jim Edmonds 68.1 7972 1993 2010
8 Duke Snider 67.5 8237 1947 1964 H
9 Kenny Lofton 65.3 9234 1991 2007
10 Andruw Jones 59.8 8156 1996 2010
11 Richie Ashburn 58.0 9736 1948 1962 H
12 Willie Davis 57.2 9822 1960 1979
13 Cesar Cedeno 52.2 8133 1970 1986
14 Max Carey 50.6 10770 1910 1929 H
15 Chet Lemon 49.9 7872 1975 1990
16 Vada Pinson 49.3 10403 1958 1975
17 Mike Cameron 47.4 7615 1995 2010
18 Bernie Williams 47.3 9053 1991 2006
19 Fred Lynn 47.3 7923 1974 1990
20 Edd Roush 46.5 8156 1913 1931 H
21 Brett Butler 46.5 9545 1981 1997
22 George Van Haltren 45.1 9017 1887 1903
23 Kirby Puckett 44.8 7831 1984 1995 H
24 Paul Hines 41.8 7470 1872 1891

[Los Bravos]

Offensive numbers alone make him borderline. Add in the fact he is one of the greatest defensive CFers of all time and it pushes him well over the line.I wouldn't say "well over", but most likely "over."


But if you just go by WAR, Keith Hernandez (61), Buddy Bell (60.8), Willie Randolph (60.5), Reggie Smith (63.1), Graig Nettles (61.6), Sal Bando (60.6), Jimmy Wynn (59.8), Luis Tiant (59.4) and perhaps Ken Boyer & Jack Glasscock deserve to be in the HOF as well, when quite frankly, they don't.I will say right now that I support Tiant, wholeheartedly and without qualification.

As for those other guys, Hernandez, Nettles and Bell all have similar cases (a blend of defensive dominance or excellence and solid or better work with the bat.) Nettles is especially an apt comparison, as he was a standard setter at third for most of his career and had solid power, coupled with a less than fabulous BA.

[Jsquared83]

Andruw's close in my book but a hard decline and rather poor rate stats keep him just out. WAR aside, he looks like Torii Hunter with more power and less average. However, Hunter is having one of his better seasons at 34, followed by his best season at 33, where Andruw is 5-6 seasons removed from his and will never see those levels again.

[dominik]

Andruw's close in my book but a hard decline and rather poor rate stats keep him just out. WAR aside, he looks like Torii Hunter with more power and less average. However, Hunter is having one of his better seasons at 34, followed by his best season at 33, where Andruw is 5-6 seasons removed from his and will never see those levels again.

offensively yes. but Jones was a historic defensive player, hunter is not.

You are right offensively jones is not a HOFer. It depends how defense is weighted.

[Jsquared83]

This is ture, but voters are going to compare 10 GGs for Jones and 9 and counting for Hunter even though I think Hamilton deserves it this year just from watching a lot of games. A gold glove is a gold glove to these guys, we here on this board debate to what level above that Jones has played.


offensively yes. but Jones was a historic defensive player, hunter is not.

You are right offensively jones is not a HOFer. It depends how defense is weighted.

[Cowtipper]

He's been around for 15 seasons and yet Andruw Jones is still only 33 years old - that's hard to believe! Since 2007, he has hit .212 with 65 home runs and 199 RBI - an average of 16 home runs and 50 RBI a season. He has transformed into Gorman Thomas or Rob Deer-lite.

He only needs to play until he is 39, averaging 16 home runs a year, to reach 500. I wonder if he can do it.

[Cougar]

He's been around for 15 seasons and yet Andruw Jones is still only 33 years old - that's hard to believe! Since 2007, he has hit .212 with 65 home runs and 199 RBI - an average of 16 home runs and 50 RBI a season. He has transformed into Gorman Thomas or Rob Deer-lite.

He only needs to play until he is 39, averaging 16 home runs a year, to reach 500. I wonder if he can do it.

There's a reason Stormin' Gorman and Deer didn't do it.

Andruw has had a funny pattern the last two seasons -- he starts off gangbusters; this year he had 6 HR before the end of April, last year he hit .344 in April with 3 HR -- and then he spends the rest of the season skirting the Mendoza line.

Why does he fall off so fast? In 2008 it looked like he just couldn't catch up to a major league fastball anymore, and it looks like that in 2009 and 2010 -- except for April.

I'm not implying anything...it's just weird.

[dominik]

the question as I said before is if he somehow creeps to 500 HR. He certainly has those 93 HRs in him, but you have to wonder if he can still get an MLB spot every day for several years. He has still pop, but his value is very limited if he hits only a little above the mendoza line. which team wants to have a .215 hitter that can hit 15-20 HRs a year(especially if he doesn't walk a lot like jones).

He would really need to work his ass of to stay there.

If he makes it to 500 it's no question that he gets in. but without it it doubt it.

[Sockeye]

the question as I said before is if he somehow creeps to 500 HR. He certainly has those 93 HRs in him, but you have to wonder if he can still get an MLB spot every day for several years. He has still pop, but his value is very limited if he hits only a little above the mendoza line. which team wants to have a .215 hitter that can hit 15-20 HRs a year.

Andruw Jones is certainly an oddity. It's not quite as cut an dry and that though. If you go by his past two seasons Andruw Jones is a .222 hitter with 36 home runs in 559 AB's. If given a full season worth of AB's he can still hit 35 home runs a year. He has to be the streakiest hitter in the game today. Either red hot or ice cold with no in between. If we break down Andruw Jones performance by month this season we see this

April: .259 .394 .630 1.024
May: .208 .301 .417 .718
June: .086 .200 .171 .371
July: .224 .313 .500 .813
August: .273 .385 .606 .991
September: .385 .515 .615 1.131

His best month in terms of production was september. Followed by april and august. In each of those three months his production numbers were at an allstar level. In July his numbers were respectible due in large part to his 5 home runs. He struggled in may and fell apart in june. That said a team could certainly still use Andruw Jones. Just a matter of playing him when he is hot and sitting him when he is not.

[Cougar]

It's probably just a coincidence, but Jones hit best when the Pale Hose were falling headlong out of thepennant, and worst when they were gaining and building up a division lead. He's a contra-indicator to his team's success.

I don't think this really means anything, I don't think Jones is a "losing ballplayer". I just noticed it and thought I'd share.


Andruw Jones is certainly an oddity. It's not quite as cut an dry and that though. If you go by his past two seasons Andruw Jones is a .222 hitter with 36 home runs in 559 AB's. If given a full season worth of AB's he can still hit 35 home runs a year. He has to be the streakiest hitter in the game today. Either red hot or ice cold with no in between. If we break down Andruw Jones performance by month this season we see this

April: .259 .394 .630 1.024
May: .208 .301 .417 .718
June: .086 .200 .171 .371
July: .224 .313 .500 .813
August: .273 .385 .606 .991
September: .385 .515 .615 1.131

His best month in terms of production was september. Followed by april and august. In each of those three months his production numbers were at an allstar level. In July his numbers were respectible due in large part to his 5 home runs. He struggled in may and fell apart in june. That said a team could certainly still use Andruw Jones. Just a matter of playing him when he is hot and sitting him when he is not.

[Sockeye]

It's probably just a coincidence, but Jones hit best when the Pale Hose were falling headlong out of thepennant, and worst when they were gaining and building up a division lead. He's a contra-indicator to his team's success.

I don't think this really means anything, I don't think Jones is a "losing ballplayer". I just noticed it and thought I'd share.

The White Sox were 64-43 in games that Andruw Jones played in. 24-31 in games when Andruw Jones didn't play. Seems like there could be a connection there.

[Cougar]

The White Sox were 64-43 in games that Andruw Jones played in. 24-31 in games when Andruw Jones didn't play. Seems like there could be a connection there.

Well, that's an indicator in the other direction. And a more direct one.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Andruw Jones is the new, improved Dave Kingman. He's the same offensive type of player, but he does walk more, and he plays Gold Glove defense.

Unfortunately, he's not a CENTER fielder anymore. This hurts, and hurts bad. Jones' string of CF Gold Gloves is impressive, and one of the things that suggested that he was a GREAT player. That he's lost that dimension at a young age hurts his perception with HOF voters, compounding the image he has as a weak finisher. The BBWAA has a definite bias in favor of strong finishers and a similar bias against guys that fade early. Jones may well be the first 500 HR guy to not make the HOF.

[RuthMayBond]

Andruw Jones is the new, improved Dave Kingman. Dude, you just mentioned Andruw Jones and Dave Kingman in the same sentence :blownup::ughh:rant::grouchy:headbeat::hissyfit::b anghead:

[White Knight]

Why do some people just decline at such a young age of 30? Is it mostly due to injuries, genetics, routine (workout, diet), or laziness? I am totally convinced it is mostly genetics.

I am 37 and eat like crap, and despite this still look and feel much younger. With a change of food and a heavy workout routine, I know I'd still be productive if I were a MLer. :)

[ol' aches and pains]

Why do some people just decline at such a young age of 30? Is it mostly due to injuries, genetics, routine (workout, diet), or laziness? I am totally convinced it is mostly genetics.

I am 37 and eat like crap, and despite this still look and feel much younger. With a change of food and a heavy workout routine, I know I'd still be productive if I were a MLer. :)

Or very possibly he's a few years older than he claims to be.

[dominik]

Andruw Jones is the new, improved Dave Kingman. He's the same offensive type of player, but he does walk more, and he plays Gold Glove defense.

Unfortunately, he's not a CENTER fielder anymore. This hurts, and hurts bad. Jones' string of CF Gold Gloves is impressive, and one of the things that suggested that he was a GREAT player. That he's lost that dimension at a young age hurts his perception with HOF voters, compounding the image he has as a weak finisher. The BBWAA has a definite bias in favor of strong finishers and a similar bias against guys that fade early. Jones may well be the first 500 HR guy to not make the HOF.

top 5 defensive CF of all time+500 HR not a HOFer?

I know he is not a good hitter (only power-no average, no patience, no good approach) and the HRs do cover that, but beeing a historic CF AND hit 500 HR is very rare. CF is a premium position defensively(only behind C, 2B, SS) and he might very well have been the best ever in his prime.

If one is the first 500 guy outside the hall (outside the roiders which I don't consider here) it will be a brutal defensive LF/1B type that fields like adam dunn or manny ramirez or even a DH.

the early decline will hurt, but they won't keep out a historically great fielder on a premium position with 500 HRs.

the big question is if he can retain his spot till he gets to 500.

[dominik]

Why do some people just decline at such a young age of 30? Is it mostly due to injuries, genetics, routine (workout, diet), or laziness? I am totally convinced it is mostly genetics.

I am 37 and eat like crap, and despite this still look and feel much younger. With a change of food and a heavy workout routine, I know I'd still be productive if I were a MLer. :)

In his case acombination of injuries, lazyness, dumbness and getting fat.:)

[PVNICK]

top 5 defensive CF of all time+500 HR not a HOFer?

I know he is not a good hitter (only power-no average, no patience, no good approach) and the HRs do cover that, but beeing a historic CF AND hit 500 HR is very rare. CF is a premium position defensively(only behind C, 2B, SS) and he might very well have been the best ever in his prime.

If one is the first 500 guy outside the hall (outside the roiders which I don't consider here) it will be a brutal defensive LF/1B type that fields like adam dunn or manny ramirez or even a DH.

the early decline will hurt, but they won't keep out a historically great fielder on a premium position with 500 HRs.

the big question is if he can retain his spot till he gets to 500. I'm not disputing the top 5 defense but is that a belief that is out there with the general public much less the people who will vote on him?

[White Knight]

Or very possibly he's a few years older than he claims to be.

Show me the long-form birth certificate! :)

[Sockeye]

top 5 defensive CF of all time+500 HR not a HOFer?

I know he is not a good hitter (only power-no average, no patience, no good approach) and the HRs do cover that, but beeing a historic CF AND hit 500 HR is very rare. CF is a premium position defensively(only behind C, 2B, SS) and he might very well have been the best ever in his prime.

If one is the first 500 guy outside the hall (outside the roiders which I don't consider here) it will be a brutal defensive LF/1B type that fields like adam dunn or manny ramirez or even a DH.

the early decline will hurt, but they won't keep out a historically great fielder on a premium position with 500 HRs.

the big question is if he can retain his spot till he gets to 500.

I'll take it a step further. One of the all time greatest fielding CFers in history with over 400 home runs. Why should he have to get to 500 home runs? If Richie Ashburn deserves to be in based on his glove, 2500 hits, and 111 OPS+ than Andruw Jones deserves to be in based on his glove, 400 home runs, and 111 OPS+.

[Cougar]

I'll take it a step further. One of the all time greatest fielding CFers in history with over 400 home runs. Why should he have to get to 500 home runs? If Richie Ashburn deserves to be in based on his glove, 2500 hits, and 111 OPS+ than Andruw Jones deserves to be in based on his glove, 400 home runs, and 111 OPS+.

That's a very good sale...He is possibly the best fielding CF ever, and he has over 400 HR.

You might add he has one 50 HR season, and played in 10 straight post-seasons with the Braves, but the above sentence is awfully good.

Some BBWAA guy (don't recall who...an oldster) wrote once, (paraphrase) "If a guy's a HOFer you only need one sentence to explain why."

Well, that sentence does it.

Yeah, you can stop there.

[RuthMayBond]

Some BBWAA guy (don't recall who...an oldster) wrote once, (paraphrase) "If a guy's a HOFer you only need one sentence to explain why."

Tommy McCarthy "Based upon his extraordinary proclivity toward consistent offensive mediocrity at not-quite-the-easiest defensive position ..."

Herb Pennock "Based upon his exquisite taste in teammates and immense ability to WILL his teammates to lavish him with bountiful offense ..."

Travis Jackson "Based upon his productive friendship with an allegedly-influential Hall of Famer ..."

[Cougar]

Tommy McCarthy "Based upon his extraordinary proclivity toward consistent offensive mediocrity at not-quite-the-easiest defensive position ..."

Herb Pennock "Based upon his exquisite taste in teammates and immense ability to WILL his teammates to lavish him with bountiful offense ..."

Travis Jackson "Based upon his productive friendship with an allegedly-influential Hall of Famer ..."

Ha Ha Ha.

Perhaps it ought to be "one simple, direct sentence".

Then again, I should clarify that I don't really concur with this one-sentence sentiment myself; I was just noting it seemed to apply here.

[Cougar]

Ha Ha Ha.

Perhaps it ought to be "one simple, direct sentence".

Then again, I should clarify that I don't really concur with this one-sentence sentiment myself; I was just noting it seemed to apply here.

PS: "Ha Ha Ha" wasn't sarcastic -- RMB's post made me laugh.

[dominik]

the funny thing is that based on rate stats 2010 was an above average season for him.(not on overall value of course because he did not play so much and his defense is gone).

the .230 looks terrible, but he posted a .342 OBP(avg was .338) and a 119 OPS+(average 111)

[Sockeye]

Andruw Jones projected stats

2889 games
10,065 at-bats
1546 runs
2524 hits
501 doubles
42 triples
560 home runs
1688 RBI
176 stolen bases
70 caught stealing
1191 walks
2271 strikeouts
4789 total bases
275 GDP
120 HBP
7 SH
99 SF
104 IBB
.251 AVG
.334 OBP
.476 SLG

Andruw Jones's 2011 projections

144 games
503 at-bats
77 runs
124 hits
24 doubles
2 triples
30 home runs
88 RBI
6 stolen bases
3 caught stealing
62 walks
114 strikeouts
244 total bases
15 GDP
6 HBP
0 SH
6 SF
6 IBB
.247 AVG
.333 OBP
.485 SLG

[Cougar]

The 2011 projection can't possibly be squared with the career projection. With that modest level of production from a corner OF position, there's no way he'll get the playing time to reach those career marks.


Andruw Jones projected stats

2889 games
10,065 at-bats
1546 runs
2524 hits
501 doubles
42 triples
560 home runs
1688 RBI
176 stolen bases
70 caught stealing
1191 walks
2271 strikeouts
4789 total bases
275 GDP
120 HBP
7 SH
99 SF
104 IBB
.251 AVG
.334 OBP
.476 SLG

Andruw Jones's 2011 projections

144 games
503 at-bats
77 runs
124 hits
24 doubles
2 triples
30 home runs
88 RBI
6 stolen bases
3 caught stealing
62 walks
114 strikeouts
244 total bases
15 GDP
6 HBP
0 SH
6 SF
6 IBB
.247 AVG
.333 OBP
.485 SLG

[RuthMayBond]

Andruw Jones projected stats

560 home runs
At the rate over his last three years, he will reach this . . .
. . . about thirteen years from now (he will only be 46)

[dominik]

The 2011 projection can't possibly be squared with the career projection. With that modest level of production from a corner OF position, there's no way he'll get the playing time to reach those career marks.

right. he is still a power threat but when he hits around the mendoza line he won't get that much playing time.
In a full season he would be still capable to hit around 30 HR but then he would hit .210. I'm not sure if a team gives him that much playing time with that average.

[Sockeye]

The 2011 projection can't possibly be squared with the career projection. With that modest level of production from a corner OF position, there's no way he'll get the playing time to reach those career marks.

I don't agree. It should be good for about a 115-120 OPS+ which should earn in a job in 2012.

[Sockeye]

At the rate over his last three years, he will reach this . . .
. . . about thirteen years from now (he will only be 46)

Obviously it all depends on if he if allowed to play full time. Production wise Andruw Jones still deserves to play full time.

[philliesfiend55]

Andruw Jones projected stats

2889 games
10,065 at-bats
1546 runs
2524 hits
501 doubles
42 triples
560 home runs
1688 RBI
176 stolen bases
70 caught stealing
1191 walks
2271 strikeouts
4789 total bases
275 GDP
120 HBP
7 SH
99 SF
104 IBB
.251 AVG
.334 OBP
.476 SLG

Andruw Jones's 2011 projections

144 games
503 at-bats
77 runs
124 hits
24 doubles
2 triples
30 home runs
88 RBI
6 stolen bases
3 caught stealing
62 walks
114 strikeouts
244 total bases
15 GDP
6 HBP
0 SH
6 SF
6 IBB
.247 AVG
.333 OBP
.485 SLG

I think it's impossible to project yearly or career stats for Andruw Jones, considering that his playing time was drastically reduced after the 2007 season.

Jones has been a favorite player of mine for a long time, but even as a fan of his for some years, I can't see him making the HOF.

On the plus side for him: For awhile, I thought he was going to threaten one longstanding defensive record. Max Carey (career:1910-1929) and Richie Ashburn (career: 1948-1962) share the record for most years leading a league in Outfielder Put Outs with 9 apiece. Jones led the N.L. for 5 consecutive years and a few years later added a sixth league leadership in that category. But Jones tapped out at 6 league leaderships in Putouts because that's where his status as an everyday player ended. He's only been a platoon player/4th outfielder for the last three seasons.
Offensively, Jones has not hit .250 since 2006 and he hasn't reached 20 home runs since 2007.
Jones' current lifetime batting average is .256. I believe that his mark matches Harmon Kilebrew's career total. Kilebrew has the lowest lifetime batting average of any Hall Of Famer that I know of. Kilebrew however had 573 home runs and hundreds more RBI than Jones. Jones could conceiveably play long enough to match Kilebrew's home run total, but his career batting average has dropped steadily the last four years. If he caught Kilebrew in career HRs what would his lifetime B. Avg. be by that time, if it kept dropping at its present rate? In the.235 to.245 range? .... and ask yourself would 573 home runs with a .239 career batting average be Hall-worthy? Would it get a player into the Hall Of Fame very easily, as a writers' selection, as a Veterans Committee selection, or at all?
Most HOF sluggers, batting in the middle of their lineups have managed to finish their careers with more hits than games played (ie: Mickey Mantle 2401 games, 2415 hits; Ernie Banks - 2528 games, 2583 hits). Those that failed to average one hit per game didn't miss that mark by much. Jones, with 1840 hits in 2025 games is at .908 hits per game, or about 91 hits per 100 games. Historically, Jones's hits per game or hits per one hundred games, falls too far below the standard for Hall Of Famers in that category.
Jones seems to be an example of a player who peaks very early but also whose accomplishments tail off rapidly at an early age as well. He was in the majors at age 19 and an everyday player by 20. He went on to have numerous offensive and defensive accomplishments, including a number of All-Star game selections, 6 years leading N.L outfielders in Put Outs, five years with 100 RBI, including one RBI league leadership, one .300 season, and one 50 home run year (51). However, if his low batting average continues, that will prevent him from adding significantly to his present 407 career home runs, and Jones, career will be phased out by his managers and general managers, and he'll be an involuntary early retiree. His last year as a regular was at age 30, and he doesn't seem capable of regaining the batting skills that once made him one of the best players in the game.

-philliesfiend55-

[RuthMayBond]

Obviously it all depends on if he if allowed to play full time. Production wise Andruw Jones still deserves to play full time.One of his last four years has actually been above average (for ALL big leaguers including C & SS, which a corner OF ain't)

[Sockeye]

right. he is still a power threat but when he hits around the mendoza line he won't get that much playing time.
In a full season he would be still capable to hit around 30 HR but then he would hit .210. I'm not sure if a team gives him that much playing time with that average.

With a full season of AB's 30 home runs are a given. I'm not entirely sure that Andruw Jones rate stats wouldn't improve if he played full time an opposed to playing part time. He's extremely streaky. Playing everyday gets the most out of his hot streaks and allows him to work his way out of slumps.

[Allie Fox]

Robinson v. Jones (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/28/2018043/frank-vs-andruw-the-unfortunate-past-4-seasons-of-andruw-jones)

Living in Braves country I have heard since his debut that Jones is the greatest thing ever to roam CF (even better than Mays). This despite complaining about him never coming through when he's needed.

The article above does not mention Mays but in the comments section of BBTF someone mentioned this:


Of his (Jones') 60 BRef WAR, 24 are defense. To put that in perspective, the defensive stats have Andruw as +24 in his prime (age 20-29), while Willie Mays is at +13 in his prime (age 23-35).

Does defensive WAR consider the fact that Mays played in the Polo Grounds and Candlestick Park compared to Jones' Turner Field? In other words is there a "Park Factor" involved in calculating WAR?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Why do some people just decline at such a young age of 30? Is it mostly due to injuries, genetics, routine (workout, diet), or laziness? I am totally convinced it is mostly genetics.

I am 37 and eat like crap, and despite this still look and feel much younger. With a change of food and a heavy workout routine, I know I'd still be productive if I were a MLer. :)

It's bad diet, no exercise and age. When Jones came up he had that lean sprinter's body. He had incredible speed. But I get the feeling that he likes to eat well and thus the weight gain.

[Bigfoot 88]

We often talk about offensive dominance, well how about defensive dominance?

Defensive WAR
1997 NL 2.7 (1st)
1998 NL 3.4 (1st)
1999 NL 3.6 (1st)
2000 NL 2.4 (1st)
2001 NL 2.7 (1st)
2002 NL 1.9 (1st)
2003 NL 1.8 (8th)
2004 NL 1.7 (5th)
2005 NL 1.8 (4th)
2006 NL 2.0 (3rd)
Active 23.7 (1st)
Career 23.7 (2nd)

Total Zone Runs
1997 NL 28 (1st)
1998 NL 35 (1st)
1999 NL 36 (1st)
2000 NL 25 (1st)
2001 NL 27 (1st)
2002 NL 19 (1st)
2004 NL 17 (4th)
2006 NL 20 (3rd)
Active 241 (1st)
Career 241 (2nd)

And if that wasn't enough, Jones had 10 seasons of 25+ homers, 7 of 30+, and jacked 51 and 41 in back to back seasons. The only centerfielders with more home runs are Mays, Mantle, and Griffey Jr. He is tied with the great Duke Snider(RIP) with 407 and will surely pass him.
He is a clear cut HOF in my mind. A perfect example of a 10 year HOF caliber peak player who will stat pad the rest of his career(he improved last year too slugging .486).

When you look at the combination of great defense and excellent offense, I don't see how you can keep him out of the HOF.

[Bigfoot 88]

I wonder how he will do with the Yankees filling the Marcus Thames role? I think Kevin Long will help him improve and wouldn't be surprised if he did hit 20 homers. Andruw is actually an above average corner outfielder and is in great shape, though he is just average in center now.

Here is a recent article about this:

Aware of His Changing Role, Jones Is Ready to Help Yankees

TAMPA, Fla. — Any proper highlight montage of Andruw Jones’s career would begin with video from the opening game of the 1996 World Series and go on to show a dizzying assortment of gravity-defying catches and majestic home runs. Jones, for all of it, would be wearing an Atlanta Braves uniform. His last game with the Braves was in 2007. For the sake of accuracy, Jones has since played for the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox, adjusting every season to the industry’s changing perception of him. A prodigy at 19, a star at 25 and a backup at 31.

“People still think that I’m 19, that I’m going to do the same things that I did back then,” the 33-year-old Jones said. “People think you’re going to be the same guy for 14 years, and that just doesn’t happen.”

Reconciling those perceptions has proven challenging for Jones, who realizes the limitations of his body but still dreams of playing regularly — of starring in center field, where he won 10 straight Gold Glove awards and played tauntingly shallow, defying hitters to drive the ball over his head. His closing speed has diminished, but his instincts remain. If he had twice as many at-bats last season, Jones said he would have hit 40 home runs.

The Yankees are at peace with who Jones is now and what they hope he will be: a useful right-handed-hitting counterbalance and a defensive upgrade in the corner outfield spots over last year’s designated left-handed masher, Marcus Thames. But he will not be in center, Manager Joe Girardi said.

“If he does what he did last year, we’ll be excited,” General Manager Brian Cashman said of Jones, who hit .230 with 19 homers and 48 runs batted in for the White Sox.

The first 11 seasons of Jones’s career followed a Hall of Famer’s arc. Only five players — Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Eddie Mathews — hit more homers by their 30th birthday than Jones (345), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Jones turned 30 in 2007, and his production declined as quickly as his profile ascended that October night at Yankee Stadium in 1996, when he homered in his first two at-bats. In his final season in Atlanta, Jones’s average plunged 40 points, to .222, and he hit 26 homers, two years after clubbing 51. In the post-steroids era, any spike or plunge is considered suspicious, but Jones said Wednesday that he was clean.

“No way,” Jones said, shaking his head, when asked if he had taken steroids. “Those years, there were drug tests. If people think I’m lying, all they have to do is go into the major league records and see if I’m in there. I’m not.”

Given an opportunity to re-establish his value with the Dodgers in 2008, Jones flopped. He reported to spring training overweight, endured three stays on the disabled list with a balky knee and was benched after Manny Ramirez arrived from Boston in a trade. When Jones did play, fans jeered him. Feeling pressure to earn the $36.2 million the Dodgers were paying him over two years, Jones hit .158, the 11th-lowest average since 1900 among players with at least 200 at-bats, according to Stats, LLC.

“When I went to L.A., I really felt like I lost it,” Jones said. “I didn’t feel comfortable at all. It was like I didn’t know how to play the game anymore. I probably needed a psychiatrist to see what was going on in my head. It was that bad.”

His teammates noticed. Russell Martin, the Yankees’ new catcher, was Jones’s teammate in Los Angeles and said Jones’s personality played well in the clubhouse but perhaps not for fans who wanted him to seem more outwardly disappointed.

“He’s not the type to get frustrated or let his emotions get the best of him, so he was struggling and still happy, enjoying himself and smiling, and I think that was taken like he didn’t care or something,” Martin said, adding, “I really don’t think Andruw enjoyed his experience over there.”

Jones asked for his release after one season, then latched on in reserve roles with Texas and Chicago, where he hit for power but not for average, just how he likes it. He considers himself a slugger, a run producer, and he correctly recited that he hit .300 only once, in 2000, and that his average stayed between .261 and .277 seven times during his final nine years in Atlanta.

Kevin Long, the Yankees’ hitting coach, said that Jones reminds him a bit of Nick Swisher, who raised his average 30 points in his first season with the Yankees. Long said that Jones, at 6-foot-1 and 230 pounds, is going to hit his share of homers just by making contact. But Long also said that Jones’s back leg has a tendency to collapse, causing him to uppercut his swing. As a result, his bat spends less time in the hitting zone.

“He’s very sound otherwise, so we’re not talking about going from A to Z with him,” Long said. “It’s more like S to Z. We don’t have to do the whole alphabet.”

Girardi disagreed with the appraisal that, for all of his talents, Jones is an unknown heading into the season. He raved about Jones’s baserunning skills and natural talents, which Martin also mentioned. Playing center field growing up, Martin would pretend he was Jones, diving and leaping for fly balls. He remembers how Jones made Yankee Stadium his stage in the 1996 World Series and said he was eager to watch him do so once more.

“He’s still a kid, at least for me,” Martin said. “He still has that same smile, still loves the game. He’s not old yet. He’s not old to me.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/sports/baseball/25yankees.html

[Bigfoot 88]

Andruw hit a home run in his first Yankee at bat giving him 408, one more than Duke Snider. The only centerfielders with more home runs are Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mickey Mantle.

[Cougar]

Andruw hit a home run in his first Yankee at bat giving him 408, one more than Duke Snider. The only centerfielders with more home runs are Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mickey Mantle.

I might quibble that Andre Dawson should be in that mix, but it's still awfully impressive.

In the pumped-up era we're in, we've lost appreciation for just how impressive an accomplishment 400 HR is.

[Los Bravos]

In the pumped-up era we're in, we've lost appreciation for just how impressive an accomplishment 400 HR is. That is so very true. That is the main reason I'm such a hardass on this stuff.

[Matthew C.]

We often talk about offensive dominance, well how about defensive dominance?

Defensive WAR
1997 NL 2.7 (1st)
1998 NL 3.4 (1st)
1999 NL 3.6 (1st)
2000 NL 2.4 (1st)
2001 NL 2.7 (1st)
2002 NL 1.9 (1st)
2003 NL 1.8 (8th)
2004 NL 1.7 (5th)
2005 NL 1.8 (4th)
2006 NL 2.0 (3rd)
Active 23.7 (1st)
Career 23.7 (2nd)

.

Agree that Jones is a HOFer - like 3B, defense from CF is undervalued by most, and there is a disproportionate amount of RF and LF in the HOF compared to CF...the most important and difficult of the three to play.

Look at Jones from 2002 on. Still amazing, but a big drop from 1997-2001. This drop coincided with the beginning declines and departures of Maddux/Glavine and while Smoltz was in the pen. Or, was he beginning a natural decline? This also coincided with his weight gain - so maybe that was a culprit. The world's best defensive CF loses half of his defensive value when he is 24-25 years old???

DIPS theory and modern metrics focus on how defense helps pitchers (and rightly so), but there is rarely mention of how a pitching staff may affect a player's defense. Of course it is very rare for a pitching staff to have a bunch of guys who do have true BABIP suppression ability, but if there was one staff...it was that 90's Braves (even before Jones). Maddux, Glavine ,Smoltz, Merker, Neagle, and Smith are all at least one SD away from teammates (not league) over their career in BABIP. Millwood, Leibrandt, and Avery were all around average compared to mates. Nobody with significant IP is below average compared to their mates.

I think rWAR and UZR based value metrics may be undervaluing these Braves pitchers. Food for thought.

[dominik]

Agree that Jones is a HOFer - like 3B, defense from CF is undervalued by most, and there is a disproportionate amount of RF and LF in the HOF compared to CF...the most important and difficult of the three to play.

Look at Jones from 2002 on. Still amazing, but a big drop from 1997-2001. This drop coincided with the beginning declines and departures of Maddux/Glavine and while Smoltz was in the pen. Or, was he beginning a natural decline? This also coincided with his weight gain and a HR/AB increase.

DIPS theory and modern metrics focus on how defense helps pitchers (and rightly so), but there is rarely mention of how a pitching staff may affect a player's defense. Of course it is very rare for a pitching staff to have a bunch of guys who do have true BABIP suppression ability, but if there was one staff...it was that 90's Braves (even before Jones). Maddux, Glavine ,Smoltz, Merker, Neagle, and Smith are all at least one SD away from teammates (not league) over their career in BABIP. Millwood, Leibrandt, and Avery were all around average compared to mates. Nobody with significant IP is below average compared to their mates.

I think rWAR and UZR based value metrics may be undervaluing these Braves pitchers. Food for thought.

I think this is because they are all viewed together as outfielders. Outfielders are mostly rated by their hitting, esp. power. there are just more RF,LF that hit 400+ HRs than CFs.

voters are quick to say "he is only an OFer" if one has 350 HRs or so.

[Matthew C.]

I think this is because they are all viewed together as outfielders. Outfielders are mostly rated by their hitting, esp. power. there are just more RF,LF that hit 400+ HRs than CFs.

voters are quick to say "he is only an OFer" if one has 350 HRs or so.

Right..and that is a mistake.

[Paul Wendt]

Agree that Jones is a HOFer - like 3B, defense from CF is undervalued by most, and there is a disproportionate amount of RF and LF in the HOF compared to CF...the most important and difficult of the three to play.

That may be a miscount because many prime centerfielders move to a corner and many Hall of Fame candidates have long careers. See O'Rourke, Duffy, and Dawson for examples. At the Hall of Merit, where those three are centerfielders (O'Rourke and Dawson are members), there are more CF members than LF or RF members.

Thus the official "Merit" recognition of CFs is greater than the "Fame" recognition as counted by STLC. I haven't checked how much of the difference may be explained by classification and how much must be explained by different evaluations.

[Matthew C.]

That may be a miscount because many prime centerfielders move to a corner and many Hall of Fame candidates have long careers. See O'Rourke, Duffy, and Dawson for examples. At the Hall of Merit, where those three are centerfielders (O'Rourke and Dawson are members), there are more CF members than LF or RF members.

Thus the official "Merit" recognition of CFs is greater than the "Fame" recognition as counted by STLC. I haven't checked how much of the difference may be explained by classification and how much must be explained by different evaluations.

That is true - didn't think about that. I would be interested of the breakdown of OFers by their positon with the most PA's only.

And of course the HOM will be different than the HOF...I expect them to correct some of those CF omissions.

[Paul Wendt]

Here is another alternative to HOM classification of members wholly by their regular fielding positions when they performed most valuably.

Count every honored player by career full season equivalent fielding games, a measure of career shares by fielding position. (not simply by career fielding games, because the length of the season changed a lot during the career of Jim O'Rourke and others)

I have done this for single fielding positions and grouped positions, for the Merit and Fame and some shadow halls in this forum. The graphs track over "all time" such numbers as 3.36 HOF catchers in 1969 (a made-up example). I like them but don't know how to share them conveniently, and there are so many to be unwieldy and daunting.

[Brad Harris]

Here is another alternative to HOM classification of members wholly by their regular fielding positions when they performed most valuably.

Count every honored player by career full season equivalent fielding games, a measure of career shares by fielding position. (not simply by career fielding games, because the length of the season changed a lot during the career of Jim O'Rourke and others)

I have done this for single fielding positions and grouped positions, for the Merit and Fame and some shadow halls in this forum. The graphs track over "all time" such numbers as 3.36 HOF catchers in 1969 (a made-up example). I like them but don't know how to share them conveniently, and there are so many to be unwieldy and daunting.
Paul, could you provide an example of your methodology so we can see it in action? Thanks, in advance.

[dominik]

Will he get some ABs this season? the yanks don't seem to use him at all. why did they sign him?

[Armster]

Yes today even. I just think his defense is far too elite to exclude him.

[jjpm74]

Will he get some ABs this season? the yanks don't seem to use him at all. why did they sign him?

If Gardner doesn't step up his game soon, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones became an everyday outfielder.

[dominik]

If Gardner doesn't step up his game soon, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones became an everyday outfielder.

is he in the shape to do that? how is his weight? does he look like he worked out in the offseason?

[Bigfoot 88]

is he in the shape to do that? how is his weight? does he look like he worked out in the offseason?

Oh he is in really good shape. No longer the fat LA/Texas Jones.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

An interesting article about Jones' Hall of Fame case.

http://fcpbaseballreport.com/2011/08/23/watching-andruw/

[Ducati12]

Andruw Jones hit his 420th home run last night. What does he have to do to get into the Hall?

[Cowtipper]

Personally, I think he has done enough. However, reaching at least 2,000 hits wouldn't hurt...

[Ducati12]

what do you think he needs to do for the writers to vote him in? 2000 Hits? 450 Home Runs? 500 Home Runs?

[John Shoemaker]

I think he's done enough to get into the HOF but playing a few more years would make his case even stronger.

[Cowtipper]

Regaining some sort of starting job and getting that average over .250 again would help as well.

[Cougar]

Regaining some sort of starting job and getting that average over .250 again would help as well.

There's not a lot of reason to believe he's capable of being anything more than a part-time role player against lefties at this point. He's five years removed from being an effective everyday player. That's an eternity.

[Bigfoot 88]

30 more home runs and he has 450. That should do it IMO.

[Cowtipper]

Anyone know if Jones plans on retiring soon? Is he fed up being a bench player, or has he settled into that role for the long haul?

[brett]

I honestly think that if Jones had not been a power hitter, but just a lighter hitting all time great defensive centerfielder he might have a better chance than he does. He won 10 gold gloves in center, deserved 10 or 11, was possibly the best defensive player at ANY position compared to the league 5-7 times! His home runs actually kind of destracted from his defensive dominance a little. He's probably a better all around fielder considering position and performance than Brooks Robinson or Bill Mazeroski.

Maybe the home runs will help too, but I just don't know if those who vote will ever know how dominant he was in the field.

He is in my view, flat out the greatest defensive outfielder of all time.

[dominik]

His last two seasons were actually quite good going by rate stats. His OPS+ was 120 and 122 respectively.

Of course those were only half seasons but I think if he really works his ass of to get in shape he could get a fulltime job in a weaker team and still produce about 25 HRs a year. It depends on how much he wants it and if his banged up body allows for a hard off season programme.

[Cougar]

His last two seasons were actually quite good going by rate stats. His OPS+ was 120 and 122 respectively.

That's with two-thirds of his PAs against lefties. His platoon splits are huge!


Of course those were only half seasons but I think if he really works his ass of to get in shape he could get a fulltime job in a weaker team and still produce about 25 HRs a year. It depends on how much he wants it and if his banged up body allows for a hard off season programme.

If Jones can no longer play even an adequate CF -- an astonishing dropoff considering the lofty peak he was at, but apparently the case -- he's going to have to hit really, really well to hold down a corner OJ or DH spot. When a guy hits his mid-thirties, he loses some ability for good regardless of how hard he works. (Sadly, I can attest to this personally.)

[Ducati12]

Is it safe to say Andruw Jones is the best defensive Center Fielder of all time?

[Cougar]

Is it safe to say Andruw Jones is the best defensive Center Fielder of all time?

I'd say about as safe as one can be about any defensive evaluation. I would rephrase it to use the past tense -- he was the best CF ever. Now he's a better than average right fielder.

He might have been the best; he's definitely on the short list. Others: Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Doc Cramer, Curt Flood, Paul Blair, any DiMaggio brother...maybe Garry Maddox, Devon White, Gary Pettis are in the mix.

The short short list: Andruw, Mays, Speaker, Joe D, Dom D.

[Ducati12]

I feel if Mazeroski, Ozzie, and Robinson are in, than Andruw Jones has to be in.

[dominik]

I honestly think that if Jones had not been a power hitter, but just a lighter hitting all time great defensive centerfielder he might have a better chance than he does. He won 10 gold gloves in center, deserved 10 or 11, was possibly the best defensive player at ANY position compared to the league 5-7 times! His home runs actually kind of destracted from his defensive dominance a little. He's probably a better all around fielder considering position and performance than Brooks Robinson or Bill Mazeroski.

Maybe the home runs will help too, but I just don't know if those who vote will ever know how dominant he was in the field.

He is in my view, flat out the greatest defensive outfielder of all time.

That might be true. He is the type of guy who should get in nearly on defense alone. But his very powerful but a little erratic hitting (no good eye, not patient, a lot of Ks)distracts from his defense a little. because he has 400+ HRs he is often more judged in the "hitter" category and if you look at him like that his .340 lifetime OBP looks not good.

If he had been a steady contact hitter like juan pierre or ozzie he might have gotten more credit for his defense because for some reason people think that all low average, high K sluggers are slow butchers in the field.

[Cougar]

I feel if Mazeroski, Ozzie, and Robinson are in, than Andruw Jones has to be in.

I'm inclined to agree, but that also implies Keith Hernandez ought to get in, among others. I think he should, but that's not a unanimous opinion.

Best fielding pitcher is probably Greg Maddux, who's overqualified, although Jim Kaat is probably the best left handed fielding pitcher, and his candidacy is contentious.

Not sure about the right and left fielders...if they're that good, they end up in CF, with a handful of exceptions: Barry Bonds, Dwight Evans...

[White Knight]

I'd say about as safe as one can be about any defensive evaluation. I would rephrase it to use the past tense -- he was the best CF ever. Now he's a better than average right fielder.

He might have been the best; he's definitely on the short list. Others: Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, Doc Cramer, Curt Flood, Paul Blair, any DiMaggio brother...maybe Garry Maddox, Devon White, Gary Pettis are in the mix.

The short short list: Andruw, Mays, Speaker, Joe D, Dom D.

If he is so good with the glove, how do his skills go down the toilet when he's barely 30? He had all goods but no flash. Massively over-rated.

[Cougar]

If he is so good with the glove, how do his skills go down the toilet when he's barely 30? He had all goods but no flash. Massively over-rated.

Why did Jimmie Foxx never have a good year in his thirties? Why did Ken Griffey Jr. fall off in his thirties?

Jones turned 30, didn't watch his conditioning, got fat, got creaky, and lost effectiveness. No dispute on that.

But, it doesn't negate how good he was in his twenties. That happened. Andruw Jones ran down all those HRs in CF, and hit almost 400 HR, back when he was a HOF caliber player.

OJ Simpson murdered his wife and a waiter. That's very very bad. But USC and the Bills don't have to forfeit all the yards he gained.

[dominik]

If he is so good with the glove, how do his skills go down the toilet when he's barely 30? He had all goods but no flash. Massively over-rated.

What about Nomar? He was basically derek jeter till age 30 and then completely fell apart.

that happens sometimes. However I agree that this collapse will be held against him by the voters. He did have a lot of injury problems but I agree with you tha a future HOFer should be able to find a fulltime job in his early to mid 30s. that is certainly a big arguement against him.

BTW: to the guys who hve seen him (I only saw the old version who is still a solid fielder but obviously not great anymore):
What made him great in CF? Was it his arm, his speed or what?

[philliesfiend55]

Personally, I think he has done enough. However, reaching at least 2,000 hits wouldn't hurt...

I agree that before you talk about including Andruw Jones in any kind of Hall Of Fame, 2,000 hits should be a prerequisite. In order to get the 113 hits he needs, the Yankees would not be the best vehicle for him. He won't get enough playing time with them.
He could still be a team's primary Designated Hitter, and play the outfield occasionally, in which case Jones could reach the 2,000 hit milestone in 1 or 2 more years. With the Yankees, it'll take him at least three years, based on the number of at bats his manager, Joe Girardi gave him this year.
Keeping Jones' lifetime average (.256) above .250 would be another statistical prerequisite for Hall Of Fame inclusion.

[Sockeye]

BTW: to the guys who hve seen him (I only saw the old version who is still a solid fielder but obviously not great anymore):
What made him great in CF? Was it his arm, his speed or what?

Andruw Jones in his prime had a good throwing arm (not great), good speed (not great for a centerfielder). What made him the best defensive centerfielder was the great jumps that he got and the perfect routes he took to the ball. At the crack of the bat Andruw was off and knew exacly where the ball was going to end up and never misjudged a ball. As a result he made even the most difficult plays look easy and rarely had to dive for a ball.

[philliesfiend55]

Jones' candidacy for the Baseball Fever Hall Of Fame or any kind of fans' HOF is greatly aided by his fielding prowess. He had a streak of about 8 straight years where he led the National League in Outfielder Put Outs. Statistically in this category, he had the most Put outs in an 8 to 10 year period for any outfielder Richie Ashburn about 40 to 45 years earlier. Since Jones played in a much smaller park than Ashburn did in the Phillies' Shibe Park/Connie Mack Stadium, it should be noted that a lot of balls that Richie could have run down and would have been catchable for the Phillies' star in his home park would have been home runs in Atlanta or off the wall and unplayable for Jones.
Jones seems like he's been around forever, but he's only 34 and he was in the majors at age 19. He's still young enough to reach 2,000 hits and 450 home runs .... all he needs is the playing time.

[Los Bravos]

"No flash"? :rofl:

[dl4060]

What about Nomar? He was basically derek jeter till age 30 and then completely fell apart.


Nomar was better than Jeter, then his body fell apart.

In Nomar's case, the injuries broke him down. I don't see that as the case with Andruw. Jones seems like someone who did not work hard, and lost it as a result of that. That is very different from Nomar. Nomar was always a hard worker, his body just broke down. Nomar's case was more bad luck, Jones' case was more negligence.

[dl4060]

I'm inclined to agree, but that also implies Keith Hernandez ought to get in, among others. I think he should, but that's not a unanimous opinion.


There is a big difference between a first baseman and a CF, or 3B for that matter. A defensive 1B has far less value than a CF, or a 3B. I think the idea that the greatest CF, or SS, deserves induction but the greatest 1B should be outside is very logical. Defense at 1B is just not nearly as valuable as it is in center.

[dominik]

There is a big difference between a first baseman and a CF, or 3B for that matter. A defensive 1B has far less value than a CF, or a 3B. I think the idea that the greatest CF, or SS, deserves induction but the greatest 1B should be outside is very logical. Defense at 1B is just not nearly as valuable as it is in center.

Absolutely. CF is a premium position. 1B and corner OF are hitting positions.

[Cougar]

Defense at first base is less important, to be sure, but (a) there's something "Hall-worthy" about being the best ever at some non-trivial facet of the game, and (b) if the difference between a replacement-level fielder at 1b and, say, Keith Hernandez was sufficiently great -- and I suspect it was -- then the contribution can be quantified.

[White Knight]

Why did Jimmie Foxx never have a good year in his thirties? Why did Ken Griffey Jr. fall off in his thirties?

Jones turned 30, didn't watch his conditioning, got fat, got creaky, and lost effectiveness. No dispute on that.

But, it doesn't negate how good he was in his twenties. That happened. Andruw Jones ran down all those HRs in CF, and hit almost 400 HR, back when he was a HOF caliber player.

OJ Simpson murdered his wife and a waiter. That's very very bad. But USC and the Bills don't have to forfeit all the yards he gained.

Foxx and Griffey had great counting stats. They also had some crazy good offensive stats that Jones never had, especially not for as many years. You should not lose that much ability in this day and age before 34 period, barring major injury.

As for OJ, that makes no sense. We're talking ability on the field, and getting old too young.


What about Nomar? He was basically derek jeter till age 30 and then completely fell apart.

And Nomar will never get anywhere near the Hall of Fame, and rightfully so.

[Matthew C.]

1B is a less important position, but a great fielding 1B is still a lot more valuable than a mediocre or poor one. According to WAR, Hernandez had many seasons in which his defensive runs saved were greater than the negative positional adjustments he received for being a 1B. So even in the context of positional scarcity, he was still an above average defensive player. And Hernandez was a fine hitter too. I don't think anybody is suggesting the Hernandez belongs in the HOF because he was the greatest fielding 1B - but when you put his fielding + his hitting, he has a strong case.