Next Year's Ballot

[mojorisin71]

The HOF has the following players as eligible to be on the ballot:

Harold Baines
Derek Bell
Dante Bichette
Bobby Bonilla
Jeff Brantley
Jay Buhner
Ken Caminiti
Jose Canseco
Eric Davis
Tony Fernandez
Tony Gwynn
Darryl Hamilton
Pete Harnisch
Charlie Hayes
Glenallen Hill
Ken Hill
Stan Javier
Wally Joyner
Ramon Martinez
Mark McGwire
Paul O’Neill
Gregg Olson
Cal Ripken Jr.
Bret Saberhagen
Jeff Shaw
Kevin Tapani
Devon White
Bobby Witt

Who gets in and who should be one-and-done?

[DoubleX]

- Ripken and Gwynn will both get in by good margins.

- McGwire will be interesting, and I think it will be close with him, but I don't think he'll quite make it next year.

- Baines might hang on. He was underappreciated when he played, and that never bodes well for Hall of Fame voting.

- Fernandez probably deserves to hang on, but he'll likely be dropped. Another player that wasn't fully appreciated when he played.

- Everyone else is likely one and done, though I expect Canseco (some monster seasons, but I think all of the off the field stuff will do him in), Davis (sympathy for his gallant comeback from major injury in 1990 and then from cancer), Saberhagen (2 Cy Youngs will attract attention), and O'Neill (being a prominent figure on most recent Yankees dynasty will get him some support) to garner some noticeable support (albeit less than the 5%).

[Pine Tar]

It seems pretty clear that both RIpken and Gwynn get in with more than 90% of the vote.

I don't think McGwire gets elected his first year on the ballot as a sort of punishment for what he did.

I don't think any holdovers will get in next year, so no Rice and no Goose.

The following players will probably get dropped w/ less than 5%: Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla (although probably deserves to hang around for a year or two), Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Gregg Olson, Jeff Shaw, Devon White, and Bobby Witt

I think all the players that hund on last year also hang on in 2006 with the addition of Harold Baines, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Paul O’Neill, and Bret Saberhagen.

Of these its hard to predict who will get the most support. Its got to be either Baines or Canseco.

If you just look at Baines' career numbers he looks like a first ballot type of guy w/ over 1600 RBIs (23rd all-time), close to 2900 hits (38th all-time), a 289 career average, 8 times batted over 300, 6 all-star games, 380 hrs (49th all-time), 17th all-time in intentional walks, 16th all-time in games played, kept his nose clean.

But he never really did anything special in his career except for maybe 1984 or 1985: never hit 30 HRs in one year, only 3 100 RBI seasons, never 100 runs, never 200 hits (although he got 198 in 1985), highest batting average was 312, was a DH for most of his career.

I believe he will be the person with the most RBIs and hits who is eligible isn't elected. So if the hall voters are only looking at career numbers (and I suspect that a lot only look at career numbers) they might vote for him but certainly not enough to elect him. ANyway, he is a very interesting case.

Canseco is kind of the opposite of Baines in a lot of ways: His nose is very dirty, was a very flashy player, career numbers aren't so great (1400 RBI (61st all time), <1900 hits), only batted 300 twice, although he does have 460 home runs

He did some amazing things in his career that Baines never dis: he has an mvp, won a world series with Oakland, hit 30 hr eight times and 40 three times, had 6 100 rbi seasons, was the first 40-40 man, made out with Madonna, and injected McGwire with steroids in the butt. ;)
Another thing to consider is that he DHd about half his career.

Its also strange because I think a lot of news media are giving him credit for the current improvement in baseball's steroid's policies, while a lot of other media hate him for tarnishing the game. I don't think anybody would say he tarnished as much as Palmeiro or McGwire did though. So anyway, another interesting case.

[Chisox]

If you just look at Baines' career numbers he looks like a first ballot type of guy w/ over 1600 RBIs (23rd all-time), close to 2900 hits (38th all-time), a 289 career average, 8 times batted over 300, 6 all-star games, 380 hrs (49th all-time), 17th all-time in intentional walks, 16th all-time in games played, kept his nose clean.

But he never really did anything special in his career except for maybe 1984 or 1985: never hit 30 HRs in one year, only 3 100 RBI seasons, never 100 runs, never 200 hits (although he got 198 in 1985), highest batting average was 312, was a DH for most of his career.

You know, I wasn't really supporting Baines until recently. He never received the benifit of the power era that others did because of his injuries and simply it came too late in his career. He played the field well before his injuries and did so in the old Comiskey Park, not exactly the Camden Yards where he played after his injuries. I've got him slightly ahead of Edgar for DHs, but behind Molitor. I look at him as a mini Eddie Murray, although certainly not in the same class.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I always liked Baines, but it was a total gift to the voters than he was unable to reach 3000 hits or 400 home runs. If he had reached both those magic numbers, it would have been hard to keep him out. In the end, he's a model for strong consistency without really reaching that superstar level. A HOF'er should have been considered one at some point of his career.

[Pine Tar]

I always liked Baines, but it was a total gift to the voters than he was unable to reach 3000 hits or 400 home runs. If he had reached both those magic numbers, it would have been hard to keep him out. In the end, he's a model for strong consistency without really reaching that superstar level. A HOF'er should have been considered one at some point of his career.
Is he the Don Sutton of hitters? I don't think Sutton was ever a superstar but he got in. I know he reached the magical number of wins with over 300 but it seems to me that the hall has set a precedent for voting for longevity alone in his case. I don't know when I read this but Peter Gammons was being interviewed about the hall in the past year and was asked about Harold Baines and he said he would vote for him. Then the interviewer asked him "before Jim Rice?" and he backed off and said that there is no way Baines should get in if Jim Rice can't get in. Or something to that affect...

[KCGHOST]

Ripken and Gwynn are mortal locks. I am not sure about McGwire. My guess is a weak yes.

Those getting the ax are Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez,
Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Paul O’Neill, Gregg Olson, Jeff Shaw, Kevin Tapani
Devon White, and Bobby Witt.

Baines, O'Neill, and Saberhagen hang on.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Is he the Don Sutton of hitters? I don't think Sutton was ever a superstar but he got in. I know he reached the magical number of wins with over 300 but it seems to me that the hall has set a precedent for voting for longevity alone in his case. I don't know when I read this but Peter Gammons was being interviewed about the hall in the past year and was asked about Harold Baines and he said he would vote for him. Then the interviewer asked him "before Jim Rice?" and he backed off and said that there is no way Baines should get in if Jim Rice can't get in. Or something to that affect...
Not a bad analogy. Sutton minus the magic numbers. (Sutton also got 3000 K).
Baines's counting numbers overall aren't that much greater than Dave Parker's. And Cobra was a bonafide superstar in his day. And was voted as the AL's best DH a couple of times, I believe, while competing against Baines for that "title". (not sure if that was a Sporting News designation or not, but it happened while with Oakland and Milwaukee after the season.)
The HOF, itself, has always been a superficial haven that heeds a good amount of attention on fame besides the numbers themselves. Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.

[Chisox]

Not a bad analogy. Sutton minus the magic numbers. (Sutton also got 3000 K).
Baines's counting numbers overall aren't that much greater than Dave Parker's. And Cobra was a bonafide superstar in his day. And was voted as the AL's best DH a couple of times, I believe, while competing against Baines for that "title". (not sure if that was a Sporting News designation or not, but it happened while with Oakland and Milwaukee after the season.)
The HOF, itself, has always been a superficial haven that heeds a good amount of attention on fame besides the numbers themselves. Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.

Pinson, another one of the borderlines that I would vote for.

[abacab]

The difference between Sutton and Baines is that Sutton was at least an above-average pitcher for a very long time, and one of the best in the game several times (though never the best or even close to it). Baines was no better than an above-average player at his peak.

[Edgartohof]

For Sure: Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn

Most Likely: Mark McGwire

Stay on Ballot: Tony Fernandez, Jay Buhner, Harold Baines


I'm sure there are others who will stay (plus holdouts from previous years), but I hope the last three will stay on for a little bit. I don't think they deserve to get in, but they do deserve a shot and some recognition. Putting Jay Buhner there is long-shot, but for personal reasons, I hope he stays on. He did have a few decent HR years, and '95-'97 was good for him (40+ HR's each year). But he was also a great player, who went all out. Fans, players, media loved him. So here's hoping the Bone will garner enough votes to stay on.

[DoubleX]

For Sure: Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn

Most Likely: Mark McGwire

Stay on Ballot: Tony Fernandez, Jay Buhner, Harold Baines


I'm sure there are others who will stay (plus holdouts from previous years), but I hope the last three will stay on for a little bit. I don't think they deserve to get in, but they do deserve a shot and some recognition. Putting Jay Buhner there is long-shot, but for personal reasons, I hope he stays on. He did have a few decent HR years, and '95-'97 was good for him (40+ HR's each year). But he was also a great player, who went all out. Fans, players, media loved him. So here's hoping the Bone will garner enough votes to stay on.

Buhner has absolutely no chance...See Joe Carter (who had a better career).

[digglahhh]

Gwynn and Ripken are obvious choices.

I don't think Big Mac will make it on the first ballot. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he was considerably short.

I think Baines might get less support than some people think, he wouldn't get my vote. There are way too many already outside who are better choices than he is. Parker was cosiderably better and his "support" is rather meek.

Fernandez deserves to stay on the ballot and even garner some moderate support.

Saberhagen should stay on too.

O'Neil might get a few votes, and will be real close to the 5% barrier, slighty above or below

Davis might get some love for his comback, another guy with HOF talent, but not the resume.

[west coast orange and black]

ripken and gwynn: top vote-getters

mcgwire: maybe, but probably not. though stat-lovers, the voters are image-conscious. besides, their hypocritical feathers will probably show through.

baines: next time 'round:

everyone else under 7%

[Brad Harris]

Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.

On the other hand, Earl Lawson, future leader of the BBWAA didn't have a blood feud with Baines, as he did with Pinson.

[Barnstormer]

ripken and gwynn: top vote-getters

mcgwire: maybe, but probably not. though stat-lovers, the voters are image-conscious. besides, their hypocritical feathers will probably show through.

baines: next time 'round:

everyone else under 7%

I basically agree with this though I think Mr. "2 Cy Youngs" Saberhagen will get above 7, probably around 15.

[Pine Tar]

The difference between Sutton and Baines is that Sutton was at least an above-average pitcher for a very long time, and one of the best in the game several times (though never the best or even close to it). Baines was no better than an above-average player at his peak.
Baines was in the top 10 in adjusted ops+ four times. That's better than an above average player. It might not be hall worthy but its certainly better than just above average.

[Barnstormer]

Baines was in the top 10 in adjusted ops+ four times. That's better than an above average player. It might not be hall worthy but its certainly better than just above average.

Well, he was 10th twice and 9th once. I agree that in the mid-80s when he was playing OF he was a legit all-star, but still just below the "great" threshold. Overall, his ink totals for a 22-year career are pretty underwhelming (3 black 40 grey).

[Pine Tar]

Well, he was 10th twice and 9th once. I agree that in the mid-80s when he was playing OF he was a legit all-star, but still just below the "great" threshold. Overall, his ink totals for a 22-year career are pretty underwhelming (3 black 40 grey).
I'm not saying he was or wasn't great but if he wasn't great being top 10 in adjusted ops+ 4 times then Sutton certainly wasn't great either in the early 1970's. I think the more accurate thing that both lacked was dominance. Neither was ever a dominant player.

[west coast orange and black]

Barnstormer: I basically agree with [you] though I think Mr. "2 Cy Youngs" Saberhagen will get above 7, probably around 15.

i can easily go along with saberhagen.

[DoubleX]

I basically agree with this though I think Mr. "2 Cy Youngs" Saberhagen will get above 7, probably around 15.

I like Saberhagen, but the voters have a short memory (they can barely remember just how dominant a hitter Albert Belle was), especially for short periods of dominance, which is exactly what Saberhagen had. He came up well short of 200 wins (something the voters will definitely hold against him, big time) and it's not like he was Sandy Koufax, or even Denny McLain when he was at his best. I'd be suprised if he gets 5%. Speaking of McLain, who also won 2 Cy Youngs and is the last pitcher to win 30 games in a season, in the three elections he was eligible for, he never received more than 0.69% of the vote (this was before the one and done rule).

I actually think Saberhagen was a much better pitcher than McLain, but it doesn't bode well at all for Saberhagen.

[125osprey]

I think most baseball fans agree with the probable results of next year's vote, as far as it concerns the actual inductees and the closest runner-up: Gwynn and Ripken, of course, will get in on the first ballot. No doubt about it. McGwire will fall short.

It is too bad that Rice and Gossage weren't squeezed in this year. If they had a chance, 2006 was it. It seems to me that the reservations for future inductees has been decided upon for the next few years and the players who didn't get in this year will have a long wait.

Personally, I don't think anyone deserves to get in this year. But saying 'yes' to Sutter while denying entry to Gossage just doesn't seem right.

[Appling]

I think most baseball fans agree with the probable results of next year's vote, as far as it concerns the actual inductees and the closest runner-up: Gwynn and Ripken, of course, will get in on the first ballot. No doubt about it. McGwire will fall short.

It is too bad that Rice and Gossage weren't squeezed in this year. If they had a chance, 2006 was it. It seems to me that the reservations for future inductees has been decided upon for the next few years and the players who didn't get in this year will have a long wait.

Personally, I don't think anyone deserves to get in this year. But saying 'yes' to Sutter while denying entry to Gossage just doesn't seem right.
The HOF should vote in Ripken and Gwynn on the first ballot. (Ripken might even be the first unanimous first-ballot winner.) McGwire won't make it in 2007 -- make him wait it out another year or two, until we better understand how steroids -- even those not outlawed at the time -- affect hitting performance.

But the 25 players listed in post #1 are only the new first-ballot players. Some who missed selection this year will be on the ballot again next year. In addition to Ripken and Gwynn, I hope the voters don't forget the runners-up from this year's election. (If you thought Rice or Gossage were good enough to make the class of 2006, why would you drop them in your vote for the Class of 2007?)

Please, Baseball Writers of America, don't abandon Goose Gossage, Jim Rice -- or Bert Blyleven! There is room on your ballot for you to choose five players (or more).

[DoubleX]

I think most baseball fans agree with the probable results of next year's vote, as far as it concerns the actual inductees and the closest runner-up: Gwynn and Ripken, of course, will get in on the first ballot. No doubt about it. McGwire will fall short.

It is too bad that Rice and Gossage weren't squeezed in this year. If they had a chance, 2006 was it. It seems to me that the reservations for future inductees has been decided upon for the next few years and the players who didn't get in this year will have a long wait.

Personally, I don't think anyone deserves to get in this year. But saying 'yes' to Sutter while denying entry to Gossage just doesn't seem right.

You don't think Gossage will eventually make it? I actually think Gossage stands a pretty good chance for next year, especially given the widespread attention that was given to the hypocrisy of him being out while Sutter was put in (even ESPN got in on it, and they barely acknowledge sports prior to the last 20 years).

[Tigerfan1974]

The HOF has the following players as eligible to be on the ballot:

Harold Baines
Derek Bell
Dante Bichette
Bobby Bonilla
Jeff Brantley
Jay Buhner
Ken Caminiti
Jose Canseco
Eric Davis
Tony Fernandez
Tony Gwynn
Darryl Hamilton
Pete Harnisch
Charlie Hayes
Glenallen Hill
Ken Hill
Stan Javier
Wally Joyner
Ramon Martinez
Mark McGwire
Paul O’Neill
Gregg Olson
Cal Ripken Jr.
Bret Saberhagen
Jeff Shaw
Kevin Tapani
Devon White
Bobby Witt

Who gets in and who should be one-and-done?

Who gets in in bold. Add Jim Rice and Goose Gossage.

All other new names, one and done.

[cavalier1968]

This is the hall o fame not the hall of somewhat good.

CAv

[SamtheBravesFan]

This is the hall o fame not the hall of somewhat good.

CAv

Lots of "Somewhat Goods" are in the Hall of Fame and you know it. ;)