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View Full Version : Need a favor...anyone who has the Win Shares book

SABR Matt
02-07-2006, 01:10 AM
I have a copy obviously, but it's at home in Woodbridge...I forgot to bring it with me. :(

I need to know what James' exact formulas were for:

1B Unassisted Putouts
Estimated Runners on First
The Left Handed Adjustment for each of the infield positions.

These are the only three things that have survived the Win Shares methodology and made it into PCA v2's blueprints...LOL I don't have my PCA v1 documentation that could tell me what exact constant he used to adjust for left handedness of pitching staff at each position and what he did to find ERF and 1BUPO...if someone has this information, I'd really appreciate it.

Ubiquitous
02-07-2006, 10:32 AM
ESTimated runners at first base
THA-HRA*(Lge% of Non-HR are singles)+BB+HBP-WP-Balks-PB

First base un-assisted PO
then
1BPO-(.70*PitAssists)-(.86*2BA)-(.78*3BA)-(.78*SSA)+(.115*estimated runners on 1B)-(.0575*BIP against defense)

estimate B:
BIP against defense * .1 minus first base assists

or adding together assists by all infielders besides first base *multiply by .84 subtract from the first basemens PO.

Innings pitched by LH
team SO by left handers
teams innings
teams SO.

Multiply the innings by 3 subtract the SO. BIP against each group. Do this for the league as well. Then compare teams to league and you get a +/-

1B: a factor, est1bUnPO+1B assists+.0285LHP+/-
2B: B factor, LgeSBA-LgeSBDP*team/lguPO%-1/35 LHP+/-
3B: add 1/31 of LHP+/- to estimated assists by 3B
SS: 1/100 of the LHP +/- add to expected SS Assists, PO 1/64 of LHP+/- subtracted from expected PO

SABR Matt
02-07-2006, 12:13 PM
Thanks Ubi.

Not much of win shares aside from some overarching "big concepts" has survived my analysis (big concepts like the need for top-down defensive analysis, the concept of the margin...etc), but those three items have.

Although not always precisely as he originally dictated they be used. :)

BTW the ERF formula...I actually remembered it...I was just checking to make sure I had it right. LOL