On their way to 3000 hits?

[micsmith]

How likely are any of the following to get 3000 hits? I know Franco was born before WWI and Finley isn't getting much younger. But Garret Anderson keeps plodding along, and I don't think Renteria is even 30 yet.

Julio Franco currenlty at 2521
Steve Finley - 2426
Bernie Williams - 2218
Kenny Lofton - 2142
Garret Anderson - 1929
Johnny Damon - 1789
Ray Durham - 1700
Edgar Renteria - 1595
Bobby Abreu - 1432

[538280]

How likely are any of the following to get 3000 hits? I know Franco was born before WWI and Finley isn't getting much younger. But Garret Anderson keeps plodding along, and I don't think Renteria is even 30 yet.

Julio Franco currenlty at 2521

No, no chance


Steve Finley - 2426

Again, no chance. He was horrible last year, and I think he's over 40.


Bernie Williams - 2218

I hope not.


Kenny Lofton - 2142

I think he's over 40 too. 800+ hits after 40 is too much to ask.


Garret Anderson 1929

Career is in decline, and players like him (low plate discipline power hitters) tend not to age well. No way he's going to get 1000 more hits.


Johnny Damon - 1789

No way either. Getting older, and moving from Fenway won't help.


Ray Durham - 1700

Too old, too much ground to make up. He's a very underrated player though.


Edgar Renteria - 1595

I hope not. Renteria really isn't much of a player, a brutal fielding shortstop with little power. He had a good year in 2004, but other than that has been a below average player.


Bobby Abreu - 1432

He's the only one of this crew that may have a shot. Still young and producing, Abreu seems on his way to the HOF (3000 hits or not), but he has a good shot of doubling that hit total, though I wouldn't bank on it.

[Brad Harris]

How likely are any of the following to get 3000 hits? I know Franco was born before WWI and Finley isn't getting much younger. But Garret Anderson keeps plodding along, and I don't think Renteria is even 30 yet.

Julio Franco currenlty at 2521
Steve Finley - 2426
Bernie Williams - 2218
Kenny Lofton - 2142
Garret Anderson - 1929
Johnny Damon - 1789
Ray Durham - 1700
Edgar Renteria - 1595
Bobby Abreu - 1432

Here are there 2006 "season" ages, along with the number of hits needed to reach 3,000:

Franco, 47 yrs., 479
Finley, 41 yrs., 574
Lofton, 39 yrs., 858
Williams, 37 yrs., 782
Anderson, 34 yrs., 1071
Durham, 34 yrs., 1,300
Abreu, 32 yrs., 1,568
Damon, 32 yrs., 1,211
Renteria, 29 yrs., 1,405

The 2006 Bill James Handbook projects the following career totals for these players, given no further injuries in their respective careers:

3,010 Edgar Renteria
2,888 Johnny Damon
2,712 Bernie Williams
2,662 Steve Finley
2,637 Bobby Abreu
2,614 Julio Franco
2,540 Garret Anderson
2,528 Ray Durham
2,512 Kenny Lofton

Age and injury make 3,000 hits a virtual impossibility for most of these players. Renteria, intuitively, had the best opportunity.

The Handbook does predict Biggio, Bonds, Guerrero, Pujols, Ramirez, Renteria, Alex and Ivan Rodriguez, Sheffield, and Tejada to reach 3,000 (again, given healthy seasons.) Ken Griffey Jr., Todd Helton and Andruw Jones are predicted to fall just short.

Just for kicks, here are all the players active last season, with 2,000+ hits (thru 2005):

3,020 Rafael Palmeiro
2,795 Craig Biggio
2,742 Barry Bonds
2,521 Julio Franco
2,426 Steve Finley
2,345 Gary Sheffield
2,326 B.J. Surhoff
2,314 Jeff Bagwell
2,304 Sammy Sosa
2,304 Ken Griffey Jr.
2,301 Omar Vizquel
2,251 Marquis Grissom
2,239 John Olerud
2,218 Bernie Williams
2,214 Luis Gonzalez
2,190 Ivan Rodriguez
2,160 Larry Walker
2,147 Ruben Sierra
2,142 Kenny Lofton
2,136 Frank Thomas

[KCGHOST]

I don't see any of these players making it. Renteria has the age thing working for him but no hitter has reached 3000 hits with a negative OPS versus the league.

[Ubiquitous]

Bonds cost himself a shot at 3,000 hits last year. If he had stayed somewhat healthy last year and this year he probably would have had 3,000.

I think Biggio will get it if he stays healthy. If he gets 150 to 140 hits this year then all he needs is 55 to 65 hits in 2007. I think hang for at least 2007.

I personally don't see Edgar Renteria doing it. He is a good player right now because he is a SS, but when he isn't able to play SS defensively anymore his bat will not be good enough for him to be a starter at any other position. So he will become a bench and spot player.

Sheffield has an outside chance at it, but who really knows with him.

Jeter might get close but again his bat will not be good enough for him to become a hitter elsewhere. I just don't see a lot of value in a 38 year Derek Jeter DH'ing. True Molitor was able to do it, so again who knows.

[DoubleX]

I can't see Renteria doing it and I'm surprised James would project that.

I believe Biggio will do it. He had 156 hits last year and 178 the year before, so say he gets 150 this, and that could be on the conservate side, he'll have 2945 going into 2007. Basically Biggio only has to stay healthy and want to come back next year and he should do it. I imagine if he's close enough, the Astros will bring him back next year so they can celebrate their first 3000 hitter.

I don't really see anyone else on the 2100+ list making it, but if you move into the 1900s, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez have to be considered serious candidates to not only get 3000, but get way past 3000. They'll both get their 2000th hit this year, at age 31 for Jeter and 30 for A-Rod.

[Edgartohof]

I figure Biggio should make it, and Jeter has a decent shot, as does Sheffield. Pudge has an outside shot (120 hits/season until he's 40 will do it), but we'll see if he can last. But really, just turn to A-Rod, who has a shot at not only 3,000, but closer to 3,500 hits, and if he stays past 40, could have a shot at 4,000+.

[Mike D.]

I can't see Sheffield getting close...he needs 655 hits, and he'll play all of the 2006 season at age 37. That's 219 hits a year until he reaches age 40. Considering his career high is 190 hits, I just don't see it happening.

Even at the 170 hit pace he had last year, it'd take almost 4 full years to reach 3,000...maybe Sheffield will be the rare guy who plays at a top level until age 41, but seems like it's not a strong bet.

Of course, he's only 49 HR shy of 500, so he'll probably at least hang out for that.

Interesting tidbit...Sheffield, Frank Thomas, and Jeff Bagwell were all born in 1968, and all have almost the same HR total (449 for Sheffield and Bagwell, 448 for Thomas).

[Tigerfan1974]

I think it may be awile before we see another 3000 hit club member.
I don't believe any of those mentioned will make it.

That being said, I would pull for Biggio to do it.
Junior may have enough time if he can get/stay healthy!!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I can't see Sheffield getting close...he needs 655 hits, and he'll play all of the 2006 season at age 37. That's 219 hits a year until he reaches age 40. Considering his career high is 190 hits, I just don't see it happening.

Even at the 170 hit pace he had last year, it'd take almost 4 full years to reach 3,000...maybe Sheffield will be the rare guy who plays at a top level until age 41, but seems like it's not a strong bet.

Of course, he's only 49 HR shy of 500, so he'll probably at least hang out for that.

Interesting tidbit...Sheffield, Frank Thomas, and Jeff Bagwell were all born in 1968, and all have almost the same HR total (449 for Sheffield and Bagwell, 448 for Thomas).

I was also born in 1968. :D The year 1968 has perhaps the most HoFers and All-star players of any birth year. Players born in 1968:

Jeff Bagwell
Frank Thomas
Mike Piazza
Jeff Kent
Roberto Alomar
Sammy Sosa
Tim Salmon
Gary Sheffield
Mike Mussina
Rod Beck
Hideo Nomo

[BoSox Rule]

James didn't project Renteria to reach 3,000 hits. It was in his book, but he didn't do it.

[538280]

The 2006 Bill James Handbook projects the following career totals for these players, given no further injuries in their respective careers:

3,010 Edgar Renteria


Even given no injuries, I think that's a pretty crazy projection. Renteria is a pretty good hitter for a shorstop, but nothing spectacular. He doesn't have much power, doesn't walk much. He is a wretched fielder at SS.

Overall, most of Renteria's career has just been waiting for the return to glory. He came up in 1996, hit well as a rookie and was starting the next year. He had a pretty bad year at the plate in '97, but the Marlins won the World Series and he got the game winning hit, so all is well. Then he really was a pretty bad player until he hit well in 2002, and that set the stage for a really great year in 2003. Even with a pretty bad 2004, the Red Sox gave him a big contract to play short in 2005, after whcih they realized this guy just wasn't as good, and traded him to the Braves.

He has had pretty much two glory moments in his career, the game winning hit in '97, and the great 2003 season. Other than that the guy has been nothing. A guy like that will never last long enough to be a 3000 hit man. He'll be out of the game in 5 years probably. How on earth could anyone project him for 3000 hits, even given no injuries? That blows my mind. I like Bill James, but I've got to wonder what he's thinking on this one.

[WackyMooseSoltersFan]

Julio Franco currenlty at 2521- No way.
Steve Finley - 2426- Nope.
Bernie Williams - 2218- If injuries start to count as hits, then maybe.
Kenny Lofton - 2142- Too little too late
Garret Anderson - 1929- Forseeable
Johnny Damon - 1789- I think he may be a bit over the hill. If he finishes up as a Yankee and turns it on, then maybe
Ray Durham - 1700- No
Edgar Renteria - 1595- No
Bobby Abreu - 1432- Maybe

[Ichiro2006MVP]

Ichiro is gona get 6000 hits.

[digglahhh]

I'm so hungry i could eat a shark.

[DoubleX]

Ichiro is gona get 6000 hits.

So I guess you're expecting him to play at a high level until he's like 65? :laugh

[Captain Cold Nose]

I'm so hungry i could eat a shark.
Fried, broiled or blackened?
I just hope the new guy doesn't have some great stat to show us . . .

[dgarza]

Jeter and Rodriguez have very good chances. So does Livan Hernandez.

[digglahhh]

So does Livan Hernandez.

3,000 doesn't mean all that much but 2/3 of the pitchers with who gave up 4,000 are in the Hall.

[dgarza]

3,000 doesn't mean all that much but 2/3 of the pitchers with who gave up 4,000 are in the Hall.
Tell it to Hernandez