Todd Helton

[Jake]

7 full major league seasons:

1372 hits
251 homers
.339 career BA
.423 career OBP
1.048 career OPS
836 RBI

3 Gold Gloves
Lifetime fielding percentage of .995

5 time All-Star

Top 10 in MVP voting 3 times.


How much does him playing at Coors Field affect his consideration?

[rich]

I HATE using Coor's #'s. Vinny would be H.O.F. in that dump. Dante too! :grouchy

[nightal]

No........................wait a minute while I think, no.........................sorry.

[DoubleX]

Helton has consistently put up some impressive numbers and is a very good fielder to boot. But I would like to see, while he's still in his prime, what he's capable of doing with a different home ballpark. Another thing going against him is that he'll be 32 this year and doesn't even have 1400 hits yet. You'd think he'd have more with his .339 career average, and it's possible that he could finish his career without even reaching 2000 hits.

Since Coors Field is such a factor when assessing Helton's ability, here are his home/away splits for the past two seasons:

2004
Home: .368, 21, 60, .490 OBP, .693 Slg, 1.183 OPS (277 AB)
Away: .326, 11, 36, .446 OBP, .446 Slg, 0.992 OPS (270 AB)

2003
Home: .391, 23, 72, .480 OBP, .739 Slg, 1.219 OPS (299 AB)
Away: .324, 10, 45, .435 OBP, .514 Slg, 0.949 OPS (284 AB)

It's pretty clear that Coors Field is giving Helton a big all-around boost, especially in the power categories. However, his numbers on the road are still extremely good by any measure. I think the road numbers show that Helton is legitimately an excellent hitter and player, Coors field just makes him look out of this world.

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

Coors this, Coors that, everybody thinks just because Todd Helton plays in Coors he isn't a good hitter. Check out the away numbers, he hits well everywhere! The best hitters who played for the Rockies were all good after they left, Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Larry Walker, and Andres Galarraga. Larry Walker is the only guy out of these that will make the hall, but if the others had better numbers, they still wouldn't make the hall, all because they played in Coors. Todd Helton is HOF material but will he make it? No. :grouchy

[west coast orange and black]

...Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Larry Walker, and Andres Galarraga...
the same walker with an at-times 100-point home/away differential?
anyway, i think that it's too soon to seriously talk about helton and the hall.

[csh19792001]

Coors this, Coors that, everybody thinks just because Todd Helton plays in Coors he isn't a good hitter. Check out the away numbers, he hits well everywhere! The best hitters who played for the Rockies were all good after they left, Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Larry Walker, and Andres Galarraga. Larry Walker is the only guy out of these that will make the hall, but if the others had better numbers, they still wouldn't make the hall, all because they played in Coors. Todd Helton is HOF material but will he make it? No. :grouchy

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/5870/career_by_all_batting_splits.html#home_and_away_

Use his road rate stats (and double his counting stats)....

I don't think you come up with a Hall of Famer (yet). He could have a great next 7-10 years, though, and build up his case.

[Brad Harris]

Ask me again after the 2006 season, when he'll actually have met the minimum eligibility requirements (10 years in MLB.) Presently, I'd have to say he's on track, but not likely to remain so.

[Naliamegod]

Baring a disaster... yes. As someone shown, he's a great hitter all around despite coors.

[Aegis]

As of now, borderline. He needs to keep on a very solid pace to make a good case for himself, though. Also, regardless of the park, .339 is a dang fine BA to have.

[iPod]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/5870/career_by_all_batting_splits.html#home_and_away_

Use his road rate stats (and double his counting stats)....

I don't think you come up with a Hall of Famer (yet). He could have a great next 7-10 years, though, and build up his case.

162 averages outside of Coors Field...

.298/.394/.526
171 hits
44 doubles
2 triples
28 home runs
94 RBI
90 walks
88 strikeouts

So Helton's definitely doing damage outside of Coors, but yeah, Coors is making him look much better than he really is. .298 with 28 homers, 94 RBI, and solid fielding at first base is great, but I dunno... you don't really get amped up about putting a guy like that into the Hall of Fame, especially for a slow first baseman in this day and age.

Coors Field really makes some weird splits though. Vinny Castilla from last year is pretty odd.

At home, he hit .321/.379/.575 with 14 homers and 80 RBI. On the road, he hit .218/.281/.493 with 21 homers and 51 RBI. Talk about swinging for the fences.

[Naliamegod]

Considering that road numbers are normally lower then home numbers.. It's safe to say that Helton would be a consistent 30-35 homerun hitter in any other park.

[mac195]

Yes. Helton is definately on the road to the HOF, but he has a long way to go, and he got off to a bit of a late start. He didn't become a regular until age 24, or a good player until age 26. His last 5 years have been great though. Five more years like that, and he'll start to have a pretty good case, especially considering his stellar defense. I don't think it is fair to just double his road numbers. Rockies hitters are at a slight disadvantage on the road because they aren't used to seeing really good breaking stuff at high altitude.They suffer from a "rocky road effect", which should be taken into consideration.

[HDH]

Good Question: He's the best 1B in the game but, that didn't help Steve Garvey. So far, I think so.

[J W]

At home, he hit .321/.379/.575 with 14 homers and 80 RBI. On the road, he hit .218/.281/.493 with 21 homers and 51 RBI. Talk about swinging for the fences.


Considering that road numbers are normally lower then home numbers.. It's safe to say that Helton would be a consistent 30-35 homerun hitter in any other park.

Some people theorize that because the ball behaves so drastically different at Coors, that road splits at Coors are actually WORSE than normal for players... not as much as the boost in home splits, but when Rockies go on the road they're disrupted by what they're not used to.

[rich]

Larry Walker hit a league lowest .133 on the road the year he seperated his shoulder. I had him on my fantasy team & remember spewing many an invective his way. :( It was '96. Larry hit .276 overall so he musta hit a boatload at Coors.

[BoSox Rule]

Larry Walker hit a league lowest .133 on the road the year he seperated his shoulder. I had him on my fantasy team & remember spewing many an invective his way. :( It was '96. Larry hit .276 overall so he musta hit a boatload at Coors.
1996- Larry Walker
HOME- .393/.448/.800/1.248/12 HR/45 RBI
AWAY- .142/.216/.307/.523/6 HR/13 RBI

CAREER
HOME- .349/.431/.641/206 HR/721 HR (.383/.463/.713/1.176/154 HR/520 RBI AT COORS)
AWAY- .279/.372/.497/.869/162 HR/538 RBI

[antihipster]

While his numbers are out of sight, it would help if he gets traded at some point and prove his record in another home ballpark. This could be a major factor.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

162 averages outside of Coors Field...

.298/.394/.526
171 hits
44 doubles
2 triples
28 home runs
94 RBI
90 walks
88 strikeouts

So Helton's definitely doing damage outside of Coors, but yeah, Coors is making him look much better than he really is. .298 with 28 homers, 94 RBI, and solid fielding at first base is great, but I dunno... you don't really get amped up about putting a guy like that into the Hall of Fame, especially for a slow first baseman in this day and age.

Coors Field really makes some weird splits though. Vinny Castilla from last year is pretty odd.

At home, he hit .321/.379/.575 with 14 homers and 80 RBI. On the road, he hit .218/.281/.493 with 21 homers and 51 RBI. Talk about swinging for the fences.
Those are fine numbers however we must look at them in context of his era. A .526 career slugging percentage in this era is NOT impressive. He is playing in the same era as Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, and MArk McGwire.

Again, here are Helton's road stats per 162 road games:

.298/.394/.526
171 hits
44 doubles
2 triples
28 home runs
94 RBI
90 walks
88 strikeouts
89 runs

Here are stats for contemporary first baseman per 162 road games:

.283/.375/.532
151 hits
37 doubles
3 triples
30 HRs
102 RBI
79 BB
102 K
85 runs

Player B is pretty good match for Helton. However player B will NEVER be considered for the HoF! I'll leave it as a contest to see who can determine who player B is. :lookitup

[playbyplay]

Todd has got to get out of Colorado if he wants to get any respect. He's a good hitter, end of question. If he left and played with Tampa Bay, he'd still be a good hitter. He'd probably bust out with 30-35 Homers, .310-.320 batting average, 110-115 RBI's but he wouldn't touch 40-45 Homers or a batting average over .350. Coor's has taken a hold upon the slugger.
The good thing is that he's young enough to have another 6-8 fine years. If he left Colorado and produced with another team, I think we'd have to consider him. Imagine if he ends up playing his entire career with Colorado? He'd have a lifetime batting average of .335-.340 to go along with 550-600 Home runs! As much as Colorado help's his power numbers, you still got to hit the damn pitch and find a hole in the defense!
I think he needs to leave Colorado for people to really respect the guy, but he'll be a HOF'er with eight more solid years. Just look at all the other players that played in Hitter-friendly parks. Why don't we talk about them?
Todd Helton- Great Hitter regardless of what people say. He COULD be a HOF'er with eight more strong seasons.

Jacob :radio

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Todd Helton is a good hitter. Paul Konerko is a good hitter. Tim Salmon is (was?) a good hitter. Ryan Klesko is a good hitter. Todd Helton is NOT a great hitter.

Helto has a higher career batting average AND slugging percentage (slugging is 4th all-time!) than Barry Bonds. His OBP is only 11 points lower than Bonds. Does anyone really thing he is as good as Barry Bonds? He has the dual fortune of playing in the most extreme hitter's park in baseball history AND in one of the great offensive eras in baseball history. I'm sorry but Helton is a fraud. His numbers do not represent his true ability as a hitter. He is the modern day Hack Wilson and Chuck Klein. If he left Coors Field he would become Paul Konerko and Ryan Klesko. Are they HoFers?

If Helton makes the HoF, I think I will be... :grouchy

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think he needs to leave Colorado for people to really respect the guy, but he'll be a HOF'er with eight more solid years. Just look at all the other players that played in Hitter-friendly parks. Why don't we talk about them?


We do. Helton is the modern day Hack Wilson and Chuck Klein, players that played in extreme hitter's parks. And what happened to them when they left their little band boxes?

[antihipster]

With my OPS version of my Era Adjustment Value {EAV}[ops/league ops : Read the rating of as 100 being average in the league, and above 100% being above average. A great number is 120%+.] Helton has some pretty healthy figures until you factor in the ballpark equation, then he takes quite a fall.

Helton's OPS EAV minus the ballpark adjusment is an astonishing 138.624.
Once you factor in the ballpark adjustment, he nosedives down to a slightly better than average 114.471.

Asides, Helton has played only 8 years, so it seems too early to even think of this HOF status.

In the future, the hall of fame electorate are going to refer to sabermetrics, especially towards players in Colarodo.

My vote, a loud NO!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

With my OPS version of my Era Adjustment Value {EAV}[ops/league ops : Read the rating of as 100 being average in the league, and above 100% being above average. A great number is 120%+.] Helton has some pretty healthy figures until you factor in the ballpark equation, then he takes quite a fall.

Helton's OPS EAV minus the ballpark adjusment is an astonishing 138.624.
Once you factor in the ballpark adjustment, he nosedives down to a slightly better than average 114.471.

Asides, Helton has played only 8 years, so it seems too early to even think of this HOF status.

In the future, the hall of fame electorate are going to refer to sabermetrics, especially towards players in Colarodo.

My vote, a loud NO!

:clapping

I agree.

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't think Helton is as good as Barry Bonds but it's an act of delusion to believe Bonds would be anywhere near that on base percentage if he had protection in the lineup.

With Moises Alou coming into play I expect Bonds BA will drop down to the .285-.305 level that is really what Bonds is capable of hitting (yes, he's got a good eye, but the guy has a lifetime BA of .300, he's not Ted Williams and never has been) and his OBP will drop to the low .500s or high .400s.

[WillieMaysHayes]

I think right now Helton is certainly on track to be the first Rockie to make the hall(somebodys gotta make it)
Everybody talks about the Mile-high factor and it certainly exsists, but I think it actually hurts guys as far as hitting on the road goes.
I believe some of the splits are more severe because of Coors field than they would be otherwise.
I remember when Galarraga went to Atlanta and everybody figured he'd get exposed as a "Coors Superstar", so what does he do 44-121-.305.
I think some of these guys are almost getting screwed now, and we're looking at thier stats as totally meaningless.
Even Castilla hit 21HR on the road last year (ok he hit .218).
I'm just not sure if you put Bonds in Coors he would hit .400 with 100HR.(thats assuming he'd get 100 pitches to swing at) as some think.
My guess is that his road stats would suffer.

[Matthew C.]

I don't believe the Coors Field factor is overatted. Put Pujols in Coors Field, and he would break every offensive record in the books. Put Helton in Busch, he hits .300, with 25 homeruns, and 95 RBI's per season. These are impressive numbers, but not any different from what about 30 or so players do each season. This is not HOF calliber.

[csh19792001]

I don't believe the Coors Field factor is overatted. Put Pujols in Coors Field, and he would break every offensive record in the books. Put Helton in Busch, he hits .300, with 25 homeruns, and 95 RBI's per season. These are impressive numbers, but not any different from what about 30 or so players do each season. This is not HOF calliber.

Excellent point- when I was watching Pujols and Helton duke it out that last day for the batting title, it made made me think again how unfair the advantage Helton has truly is. I'm GLAD they walked him that last at bat. :p

Pujols, Career
.340/.423/.624 (71HR)
.326/.403/.624 (89 HR)
Career OPS- 1.037
Career OPS+- 169

Helton, Career
.377/.467/.703 (155HR)
.298/.394/.526 (96HR)
Career OPS- 1.048
Career OPS+- 146

Without Coors, I seriously doubt Todd Helton would be on track for the HOF.

[Russ]

Jim Rice is another example. He was helped immensely by playing at Fenway and the voters have kept him out. That said, Helton is an awesome player and I think that the road stats that the Rockies players put up are as much mental as anything else. They probably psych themselves out.

[Appling]

Todd Helton has great numbers, thanks in large part to his playing in Coors Field. I think he will someday get into the Hall of Fame like Chuck Klein of the Phillies did -- thru the "back door" (i.e., Veterans Committee). Klein played his home games in Baker Bowl, which also had a reputation as a hitter's park.

Or is Helton closer to Gavvy Cravath? Gavy had great numbers but they were also tainted by the Baker Bowl environment. Gavvy was the NL homerun champ six times but is not yet in the Hall.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't think Helton is as good as Barry Bonds but it's an act of delusion to believe Bonds would be anywhere near that on base percentage if he had protection in the lineup.

With Moises Alou coming into play I expect Bonds BA will drop down to the .285-.305 level that is really what Bonds is capable of hitting (yes, he's got a good eye, but the guy has a lifetime BA of .300, he's not Ted Williams and never has been) and his OBP will drop to the low .500s or high .400s.

Ok Hobbs, I'm going to hold you to this prediction come end of September...

[Brad Harris]

Todd Helton has great numbers, thanks in large part to his playing in Coors Field. I think he will someday get into the Hall of Fame like Chuck Klein of the Phillies did -- thru the "back door" (i.e., Veterans Committee). Klein played his home games in Baker Bowl, which also had a reputation as a hitter's park.

I would be willing to say that Helton is a more respectable candidate for the Hall at this point in time than Klein ever was. Klein is one of the most overrated players in the game's history. Helton may actually be "under"rated given how much people penalize him for playing in Denver.

The Cravath comparison doesn't work since Cravath lost significant time while playing in the minors (despite being clearly major-league caliber at the time). Cravath was held back in a system designed to hog talent below the MLB level, keeping good players out of your competitors' dugouts. The same conditions don't apply today.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I would be willing to say that Helton is a more respectable candidate for the Hall at this point in time than Klein ever was. Klein is one of the most overrated players in the game's history. Helton may actually be "under"rated given how much people penalize him for playing in Denver.

The Cravath comparison doesn't work since Cravath lost significant time while playing in the minors (despite being clearly major-league caliber at the time). Cravath was held back in a system designed to hog talent below the MLB level, keeping good players out of your competitors' dugouts. The same conditions don't apply today.Helton is no better than Ryan Klesko as a hitter. Compare their road stats and they are quite similar...

[BoSox Rule]

I think you are being a little hard on Todd Helton. Doubling his road stats and maintaining his rate stats from last year you get .326/.446/.544 with a .991 OPS and 22 HR. That is still VERY good.

Here are his recent road stats, save the year I just showed you.
.324/.436/.514/.949
.281/.383/.493/.875

You can clearly see he is getting better, and better, and better on the road.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think you are being a little hard on Todd Helton. Doubling his road stats and maintaining his rate stats from last year you get .326/.446/.544 with a .991 OPS and 22 HR. That is still VERY good.

Here are his recent road stats, save the year I just showed you.
.324/.436/.514/.949
.281/.383/.493/.875

You can clearly see he is getting better, and better, and better on the road.

Helton is a good hitter but he is NOT a great hitter. A .493 and .514 slugging percentage in this era is not impressive at all. He's about as valuable as Ryan Klesko.

I posted this in an earlier post:



Again, here are Helton's road stats per 162 road games:

.298/.394/.526
171 hits
44 doubles
2 triples
28 home runs
94 RBI
90 walks
88 strikeouts
89 runs

Here are stats for contemporary first baseman per 162 road games:

.283/.375/.532
151 hits
37 doubles
3 triples
30 HRs
102 RBI
79 BB
102 K
85 runs



As you can see, Helton and Klesko are quite comparible. Klesko has been injured in the past few year hand has had a few poor seasons. The difference between Helton and Klesko is that Helton has slugged .703 career-wise at home while Klesko has slugged .499 career-wise at home. But on the road Klesko leads .534/.526...

[Francoeurstein]

Is Helton a hall of famer??? He has played 9 years and has 271 homers, 1,535 hits, 915 rbis, and a .337 average!!!! if he were to retire after next year for some weird reason after getting 30 homers, 100 rbis, 180 hits, 550 at-bat, and a .327 average his careeer stats will be 301 homers, 1,705 hits, 1,015 rbis, and a .336 lifetime average!!!

[gehrigfan]

Yeah, if Helton retired next year with that BA, I'd put him in the HOF even with just 10 years in the league.

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

It's a little 2 early to be asking this. I'd say no if he retired after this year. After about 5 more years we should look at his stats and start speculating accurately.

Right now he is 33. I'd say he's got 4 more .310 30 homer 110 RBI seasons in him. However his career did decline last year.

I'd say his final stats would come out to this...(If he plays 7 years including this year)

Hits......AB.......Avg......2B......3B......HR.... ..RBI......R.
2800....8200.... .335.....650....40......500.....1700....1650

This has a 5 year peak period along with a 2 year significant decline.

I'd say normally that's Hall Of Fame stats. However having his peak years in the renowned hitters park of Coors Field, you must take that into account.

[digglahhh]

A lot of people bash Helton as a product of Coors, but the guy can really hit.

His road splits are certainly less amazing, but quality nonetheless.

Home: .375/.469/.694:eek: :eek:

Away: .298/.398./.519

He is also a tremendous defensive 1B.

He is an OBP machine, seasons with 200 hits and 100 walks speak for themselves no matter where you play. Sure his numbers are inflated by Coors, but he has plenty of room to spare...

I think he'll need to keep his AVG and SLG real high, but I think he can do that.

Larry Walker will be the test case for Colorado his splits are pretty similar.

Coors: .381/.462/.710:eek: :eek:

Total: .313./.400./.565

Walker was also a gold glove outfielder and a speedy and very good baserunner, just a high quality all-around ballplayer.

[jalbright]

He's certainly not HOF material yet, but his Black Ink and Gray Ink totals are just in or very near HOF levels. He's projected to have a 13% chance of reaching 500 HR and a 17% chance of 3000 hits per the Favorite Toy of Bill James. He's already got a nice top three seasons and five year peak, just needing a bit more in the career numbers to fill out the resume. His ten most similar through age 31 looks promising:

Jeff Bagwell (891)
Frank Thomas (890)
Hank Greenberg (884) *
Chuck Klein (884) *
Joe DiMaggio (863) *
Manny Ramirez (857)
Carlos Delgado (853)
Hal Trosky (852)
Ted Williams (838) *
Albert Belle (833)

There four already in the Hall, and I think at least Bagwell and Thomas of that group make it, and it's conceivable that the only one of his top ten through age 31 who won't eventually make the Hall is Trosky. The four who made the Hall are from relatively strong offensive eras as well, and of them, only Klein's case is seriously debatable--and Klein had much pronounced home/road splits than Helton.

The only cause for concern is the general dropoff in production in 2005. It may mean nothing, but he is 31, and if he lost any more homers and another 25 points of average in 2006, he'd look like a guy in serious decline. If that were the case, I think he'd miss out without a rebound, but if he stabilizes at 2005's level for 3-4 more years and then begins a normal decline, I'd think he's in good shape.

Jim Albright

[switch_hitter]

Decline years have happened during 'peak' years before, so I won't be surprised if he picks up with a 'normal' season this year; however, I believe he may have to get 3000 hits (well past, maybe even) to be a lock because of the so-called Coors advantage. Larry Walker I believe is destined to be one of those markers that gauges, whether or not one is better or worse than him, should they make the Hall of Fame or not.

[538280]

I would say Helton probably is on pace for a HOF career (but similarity scores aren't a good reason why. Why do you always use them, Jim? For this comparison they're especially ludicrous). Even park adjusted his relative numbers are awesome, and HOF caliber. He has also been one of the greatest fielding 1Bs of all time.

[jalbright]

I would say Helton probably is on pace for a HOF career (but similarity scores aren't a good reason why. Why do you always use them, Jim? For this comparison they're especially ludicrous). Even park adjusted his relative numbers are awesome, and HOF caliber. He has also been one of the greatest fielding 1Bs of all time.

I've previously indicated they're not perfect, but for active players, they are one tool that I think is worthwhile. If you don't like the three no doubt about it HOFers in his ten, I understand that, but Klein is a balance--and the recent players give a guide too (and those comparisons among contemporaries are generally quite apt). I'd rather use the information despite its flaws than do without it. I am, as with this effort, trying to remember to use a variety of resources, but I still see value in considering the similarity score group. If nothing else, there are guys in the BBWAA who will look at those numbers and not try to put them into better context--and they'll think he's Teddy/Greenberg/DiMaggio, and more importantly, they have a vote (unlike you or I), no matter how little they may deserve that honor.

Jim Albright

[538280]

If nothing else, there are guys in the BBWAA who will look at those numbers and not try to put them into better context--and they'll think he's Teddy/Greenberg/DiMaggio, and more importantly, they have a vote (unlike you or I), no matter how little they may deserve that honor.

Jim Albright

That is true. It seems every column I read by a BBWAA member on their Hall of Fame vote only focuses on the raw numbers. It seems many (if not most) of the HOF voters have little idea of how to put statistics into the proper context, and that's a shame.

[jalbright]

That is true. It seems every column I read by a BBWAA member on their Hall of Fame vote only focuses on the raw numbers. It seems many (if not most) of the HOF voters have little idea of how to put statistics into the proper context, and that's a shame.
What?!!? You actually want sportswriters to (gulp!) work??!!? Man, I'm a piker in the dreamer category compared to that! :D :rolleyes: :eek: :crazy :laugh ;)

Jim Albright

[rockin500]

What?!!? You actually want sportswriters to (gulp!) work??!!? Man, I'm a piker in the dreamer category compared to that! :D :rolleyes: :eek: :crazy :laugh ;)

Jim Albright
thatd be expecting way too much! work?!? :D

i think helton is going to need another 5 years of above average ball to garner serious consideration. his road numbers, while not mindboggling, are still very good and point to the fact that he is still one of the outstanding hitters of the past 10 years. as long as he keeps that AVG high (which i see no reason why he cant since hes the best hitter of the rockies era who have had some good offensive seasons from otherwise crappy hitters)

wasnt he injured last year? would that account for the "decline" he had last year?

[Call Me Genius]

This is quite interesting, I was just about to pose this question on the board about Helton. As far as my opinoin, I think if he continues to hit like he has, he'll be in the HOF.

[538280]

What?!!? You actually want sportswriters to (gulp!) work??!!? Man, I'm a piker in the dreamer category compared to that! :D :rolleyes: :eek: :crazy :laugh ;)

Jim Albright

The funny thing is that today we have so many references to look at for era adjusted stats, with BBRef, the fine Baseball Page website that has a plethora of relative stats, and total player metrics like Win Shares and WARP available. It doesn't even take much work to put statistics in the proper context these days, and yet they don't do it.

[Francoeurstein]

Decline years have happened during 'peak' years before, so I won't be surprised if he picks up with a 'normal' season this year; however, I believe he may have to get 3000 hits (well past, maybe even) to be a lock because of the so-called Coors advantage. Larry Walker I believe is destined to be one of those markers that gauges, whether or not one is better or worse than him, should they make the Hall of Fame or not.

Hey he could end up with Willie Stargell's stats or even Dave Winfield's...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

As much as El Halo depises Mike Schmidt, I despise Todd Helton even more. Well, I don't really despise him personally, just the whole Helton for the HoF drama. Helton is a good player who has fluked out into playing in Coors Field. As a hitter he is slightly better than Ryan Klesko. If he makes the HoF I think I will vomit. :ughh

[Francoeurstein]

Think about contact though, a hitters ballpark doesn't affect contact as much as power. I think he can easily reach 400 homers and 3,000 hits if he didn't even play for the Rockies.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Think about contact though, a hitters ballpark doesn't affect contact as much as power. I think he can easily reach 400 homers and 3,000 hits if he didn't even play for the Rockies.
Coors Field has a huge outfield and the outfielders play way back. There are many hits that fall in front of them. All, I know is that Helton's home BA is about 80 points higher than his road BA.

[Francoeurstein]

Have you heard of home field advantage???

[ElHalo]

I would say Helton probably is on pace for a HOF career (but similarity scores aren't a good reason why. Why do you always use them, Jim? For this comparison they're especially ludicrous). Even park adjusted his relative numbers are awesome, and HOF caliber. He has also been one of the greatest fielding 1Bs of all time.

One thing people don't always realize is that home / away splits aren't 100% fair to Colorado players. The drastic differences in air pressure between Denver and everywhere else cause enough disconnect with Rockies' players that their road numbers tend to be depressed because of the transition period when going on the road. I think it's fair to assume that a guy's road BA/OBP/SLG numbers are depressed maybe 10 points because of the time it takes him to get used to playing at sea level.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Have you heard of home field advantage???
???? Everyone hits a ton in Coors Field. Simply put, a run generated at Coors is simply not as valuable as a run produced in any other ball park. If you look at Helton's road stats they are not that much different than Klesko's road stats.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

One thing people don't always realize is that home / away splits aren't 100% fair to Colorado players. The drastic differences in air pressure between Denver and everywhere else cause enough disconnect with Rockies' players that their road numbers tend to be depressed because of the transition period when going on the road. I think it's fair to assume that a guy's road BA/OBP/SLG numbers are depressed maybe 10 points because of the time it takes him to get used to playing at sea level.
I've heard this argument before. I've yet to see any actual statistical evidence for this. My point is that Helton's home stats do not portay an accurate picture of who Helton is as hitter. Would you agree with that?

[jalbright]

The funny thing is that today we have so many references to look at for era adjusted stats, with BBRef, the fine Baseball Page website that has a plethora of relative stats, and total player metrics like Win Shares and WARP available. It doesn't even take much work to put statistics in the proper context these days, and yet they don't do it.

You've gotten near another reason why I use the similarity group: it's one that is actually calculated through a given age, whereas we don't have the same access to the other stats.

Jim Albright

[538280]

As much as El Halo depises Mike Schmidt, I despise Todd Helton even more. Well, I don't really despise him personally, just the whole Helton for the HoF drama. Helton is a good player who has fluked out into playing in Coors Field. As a hitter he is slightly better than Ryan Klesko. If he makes the HoF I think I will vomit. :ughh

But isn't it strange that no other Rockie has ever hit like he has, not even close? Guys like Daunte Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Ellis Burks, and Preston Wilson have all had some success at Coors but not anywhere near Helton.

BTW, the Ryan Klesko comparison really isn't that much of an insult. Klesko has a 130 OPS+ in a pretty short career and is brutal fielder. Helton is likely to last much longer, and be one of the greatest fielding 1B of all time (if not the greatest). Even if you think he's about the same a hitter as Klesko if he can get about 9000 PAs that could still be a HOFer.

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

Helton needs to show me a little more before I can make a clear conclusion. At the moment his career could be going upward or tailing down. The latter I find highly unlikely, though it could very well be happening.

In 2 years if his stats return to a somewhat more "Todd Helton" status. I'd say he's got a pretty good shot, by thus showing his career is more on the upswing.

I wish there was one clear stat which Coors cannot effect.

[ElHalo]

I've heard this argument before. I've yet to see any actual statistical evidence for this. My point is that Helton's home stats do not portay an accurate picture of who Helton is as hitter. Would you agree with that?

Oh, of course not; it's ludicrous to say they do. Just looking at his raw stats is delusional.

If you roam around the site a little bit, I did a tiny sampling of home/road splits for four or five players before and after they left Coors... in general, their overall production plummeted after they left the Rockies, of course, but their road stats tended to rise noticably (though far, far less than their home stats fell). I'm not saying that you should look at a Rockies' player's stats at face value (obviously; I'm not an idiot), but I do think it's unfair to just completely discount anyone who plays there.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

But isn't it strange that no other Rockie has ever hit like he has, not even close? Guys like Daunte Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Ellis Burks, and Preston Wilson have all had some success at Coors but not anywhere near Helton.

Umm...Bichette, Castilla, Wilson and Burks didn't play their entire careers in Colorado. Bichette and Castilla have been mediocre players outside of Coors. And this helps Helton's case how? Burks left for S.F and posted 166 OPS+ and 153 OPS+ in consectutive seasons with the Giants. Also you conviently left out Larry Walker who was more than a match for Helton in Colorado.



BTW, the Ryan Klesko comparison really isn't that much of an insult. Klesko has a 130 OPS+ in a pretty short career and is brutal fielder. Helton is likely to last much longer, and be one of the greatest fielding 1B of all time (if not the greatest). Even if you think he's about the same a hitter as Klesko if he can get about 9000 PAs that could still be a HOFer.
It wasn't meant as an insult. I was making the point that one is arguing for Klesko for the HoF and Helton is only slightly better than Klesko. If you compare through age 32, (Helton's age now) they are very similar hitters. Helton is abetter player since he is a slightly better baserunner and a much better defensive first baseman but not an all-time great. But Klesko is/was a better base runner before the injuries.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Oh, of course not; it's ludicrous to say they do. Just looking at his raw stats is delusional.

If you roam around the site a little bit, I did a tiny sampling of home/road splits for four or five players before and after they left Coors... in general, their overall production plummeted after they left the Rockies, of course, but their road stats tended to rise noticably (though far, far less than their home stats fell). I'm not saying that you should look at a Rockies' player's stats at face value (obviously; I'm not an idiot), but I do think it's unfair to just completely discount anyone who plays there.

I really really don't have the time to roam BBF. It's kind of a large forum. :o I do know that some players do as well if not better after they leave Colorado. Juan Pierre and Ellis Burks come to mind.

[KingJ]

Think about contact though, a hitters ballpark doesn't affect contact as much as power. I think he can easily reach 400 homers and 3,000 hits if he didn't even play for the Rockies.

Actually it kind of does. The thin air at that altitude cause a lot of pitches to lose speed/sail off their pitcher's target.

[Taco De Muerte]

As much as El Halo depises Mike Schmidt, I despise Todd Helton even more. Well, I don't really despise him personally, just the whole Helton for the HoF drama. Helton is a good player who has fluked out into playing in Coors Field. As a hitter he is slightly better than Ryan Klesko. If he makes the HoF I think I will vomit. :ughh

Helton's Career Slugging% on the road is .518. Also, players tend to perform slightly better at home, and Helton's not getting the benefit of away games at Coors, and therefore his true level of power is even higher - closer to .530 or .540, I'd say. That's about the career Slugging% of Sammy Sosa, Mel Ott, Willie Stargell, or Mike Schmidt. Even if we only use his career road Slugging%, unadjusted, he has a higher career SLG than Willie McCovey, Rafael Palmeiro, Eddie Mathews, Fred McGriff, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Rice, and Ernie Banks.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Helton's Career Slugging% on the road is .518. Also, players tend to perform slightly better at home, and Helton's not getting the benefit of away games at Coors, and therefore his true level of power is even higher - closer to .530 or .540, I'd say. That's about the career Slugging% of Sammy Sosa, Mel Ott, Willie Stargell, or Mike Schmidt. Even if we only use his career road Slugging%, unadjusted, he has a higher career SLG than Willie McCovey, Rafael Palmeiro, Eddie Mathews, Fred McGriff, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Rice, and Ernie Banks.

Umm... All the players you listed played in eras that had much lower offensive levels. A .518 SLG in the 1990s-2000s is not even close to being comparable to a .519 SLG in the 1960s.

[ElHalo]

Umm... All the players you listed played in eras that had much lower offensive levels. A .518 SLG in the 1990s-2000s is not even close to being comparable to a .519 SLG in the 1960s.

Helton's current line for his career is .337/.433/.607. In my opinion, if he'd played his entire career in a real park, that line would look something like .315/.410/.560. And that would, in my opinion, be more than enough to get him into the Hall for the White Sox or the Angels or the Cardinals. It's just a shame that people completely discount him because he plays for the Rockies.

[csh19792001]

Here's an equally valid question...if he retired today, would Albert Pujols be a Hall of Famer? Did you guys see what he did today?

I mean, it's about the greatest players to ever play, and how is Albert not absolutely one of the best hitters (and one of the few best right handed hitters ever). Koufax got into the HOF on 5 brillant years without question- Pujols has been just as valuable/devastating...

[538280]

Here's an equally valid question...if he retired today, would Albert Pujols be a Hall of Famer? Did you guys see what he did today?

I mean, it's about the greatest players to ever play, and how is Albert not absolutely one of the best hitters (and one of the few best right handed hitters ever). Koufax got into the HOF on 5 brillant years without question- Pujols has been just as valuable/devastating...

Good question...There's no doubt Pujols has been extremely devastating, one of the greatest hitters of all time for this stretch. But, it's hard to call a guy with 3428 PAs a HOFer.

Let's not be too premature with him though. He has quite clearly not, IMO, been the hitter Frank Thomas was through his 5th season. Thomas was a few notches ahead, and yet it seems no one but me and a few others call his peak among the top 5 or so all time. So why do you say the same about Albert?

[digglahhh]

Klesko has 5,245 career ABs.

2,630 of them have been on the road.

258 of them have been at Coors. That's about 10%.

So, when you look at Helton's road #'s in an attempt to normalize his stats, you act as if he's never hit in Coors. Coors is his home park, his road stats don't get bumped by Coors, as Klesko's do.

Klesko has hit .341, 61 points higher than his career AVG at Coors; and 10% of his road ABs have been there. In fact he has the more "road" ABs at Coors than any other stadium...

By just doubling the Helton's road numbers and then looking at them in relation to Klesko, you would be giving KLESKO a huge Coor's Advantage.

Helton is not a HOFer today, but he's well on his way and his the rest of his career follows a normal path, he's probably deserving.

[Taco De Muerte]

Helton's current line for his career is .337/.433/.607. In my opinion, if he'd played his entire career in a real park, that line would look something like .315/.410/.560. And that would, in my opinion, be more than enough to get him into the Hall for the White Sox or the Angels or the Cardinals. It's just a shame that people completely discount him because he plays for the Rockies.

Agreed.

Everybody's homers were down in Coors due to the use of the humidor. Lastyear was probably the worst year of his career and he still hit .320 and led the league in OBP. I don't understand how can he be overrated if there aren't too many who consider him great. He wasn't even invited to the World Baseball Classic.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here's an equally valid question...if he retired today, would Albert Pujols be a Hall of Famer? Did you guys see what he did today?

I mean, it's about the greatest players to ever play, and how is Albert not absolutely one of the best hitters (and one of the few best right handed hitters ever). Koufax got into the HOF on 5 brillant years without question- Pujols has been just as valuable/devastating...
Well, since Pujols hasn't played 10 major league seasons...

[Goooooo]

Take him out of coors and he's no better then sean casey.

[Brad Harris]

You mean other than the fact he can hit for power, take a walk, plays gold glove defense and isn't injury prone?

[538280]

Really, the best thing that could possibly happen to Helton is for him to get out of Colorado, go somewhere else, and prove all the naysayers wrong with a big season.

Helton has been a truly MONSTER hitter at Colorado, just comparing him with the league numbers, just as good as guys like Pujols (until a slightly down year last year). Even with a massive park adjustment (Coors field park factors are generally about 120), he's still consistently been in the top 10 in OPS+. Take him out of Coors and he'll probably have an OPS+ about 10 points lower, but that's still an awesome fielder with a 140 OPS+. If he can last 2000 games that's still an easy HOFer.

[NOMAR22]

Take him out of coors and he's no better then sean casey.

Todd Helton is little better than Sean Casey. Todd Helton's numbers are inflated because he plays in Coors field. Look at little Vinny Castilla he hit 40 + HRS 3 times AND DROVE OVER 140 RBI's.. Once he left Coors field,Poor little Vinny hit 12-15 HRS.
And please don't compare Todd Helton with Albert Pujols.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Really, the best thing that could possibly happen to Helton is for him to get out of Colorado, go somewhere else, and prove all the naysayers wrong with a big season.

Helton has been a truly MONSTER hitter at Colorado, just comparing him with the league numbers, just as good as guys like Pujols (until a slightly down year last year). Even with a massive park adjustment (Coors field park factors are generally about 120), he's still consistently been in the top 10 in OPS+. Take him out of Coors and he'll probably have an OPS+ about 10 points lower, but that's still an awesome fielder with a 140 OPS+. If he can last 2000 games that's still an easy HOFer.
No way. His OPS+ would be way lower than 10%. Yes, Helton can be as good as Pujols because he plays half his games at Coors Field!!! What would happen if Pujols got traded to the Rockies? What would he do? He'd hit .400 easily and probably slug over .800. Why do poeple keep saying Helton is an awesome fielder? He wasn't as good as J.T. Snow that's for sure.

[Francoeurstein]

I'll add a poll.

[Francoeurstein]

I had a huge debate in the other thread so vote here.

[Pghfan987]

He is a HOFer.

What does a guy have to do in Coors to get in? Break Cobb's career BA of .366?

The guy is an elite hitter (and he is not done by any means), and gloveman. He should be a first ballot HOFer.

And he played QB at Tennessee!

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

Nope, not yet.

[Goooooo]

No. He's mike sweeney as a hitter without coors.

[Francoeurstein]

I think he will since the hof ballot people only look at raw statistics.

[TheKingofKings]

He is one of the best ( 30 best ) 1st basemen in League History .

[538280]

Yes. Even if he's a Mike Sweeney/Ryan Klesko type hitter (125-130 OPS+), he should still be a deserving HOFer if he can play about 2000 games, for the simple reason that he has one thing those guys don't-fielding. Helton has been a tremendous fielder from 1B, rivaling Power and Hernandez and Connor for the best of all time. A 1Bman who lasts 2000 games with that type of fielding along with 125-130 range OPS+ hitting should be a HOFer (a la Keith Hernandez, who definitely should be in but somehow can't get in-the writers are idiots).

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

To me he needs to get his power numbers up more. His homers have been declining in recent years. He's going to have to hit around 150 more, before he is first ballot to me, at least.

[1doug]

Nope, no way does he get in!

[digglahhh]

Nope, no way does he get in!

Well thanks for the tremendous insight.

Let me ask what a player would have to average, playing at Coors, to merit induction? Are we just not ever going to elect a player from Colorado.

I have the feeling that if Ted Williams hit at Coors there would be people arguing that he shouldn't be in the Hall.

Do you guys actually watch him hit? He is a very talented, and highly intelligent hitter.

That's the reason he doesn't always put up the huge power numbers. Even those seasons when he hit 40+. He did not comprimise average and he took what the pitchers gave him. He also sacrificed many "opportunities" to hit HRs by taking walks. He takes a ton of them, and with this stripped down Colorado line-up, why would a pitcher even bother pitching to him. If Helton was willing to hit .310 in his prime he probably could have put up 55 easily, playing at Coors. You have to respect the hitter who does not prostitute himself to the longball, But unfortunately, that hitter is often chastized instead.

200 hit, 100 walk seasons are pretty rare, regardless of ballpark.

[Pghfan987]

Is Helton a HOFer? I think so. But the real question is, is Chris SHELTON a HOFer? Let's start a poll on that topic.

What do you think? Are three weeks of monster numbers enough to put him in the hall?

[Baseball Guru]

Still too early to tell IMO.. If his career ended this year, I'd say no, but he's only 32 so he still has a lot of ball left to be played, assuming he stays healthy...

His overall #'s now are on pace to be HOF worthy IMO, but he needs some more consistant years to get in IMO:)

[four tool]

I said maybe because of his home road splits. I would say no because of them, but Chuck Klein got in with the same kind of skewed numbers, so Helton will probably get in, but I don't think he deserves to.
What would his numbers be if anywhere but Coors was his home field? Not good enough from all the splits I've seen.

[digglahhh]

300/400/500 doesn't do it for you, four tool?

[four tool]

those aren't the road splits I've seen, can i check your source?

[Rennie Stennett]

[QUOTE=digglahhh

I have the feeling that if Ted Williams hit at Coors there would be people arguing that he shouldn't be in the Hall. [/QUOTE]

I think they should make a rule that you can use aluminum bats at Coors Field only and if both teams score over (10) runs each, everyone gets a beer.

[digglahhh]

those aren't the road splits I've seen, can i check your source?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/5870/career_by_all_batting_splits.html#total

[RedSoxVT92]

Here are his splits

Home .375/.469/.694
Road .298/.398/.519

The Coors field has helped him tremoundoulsy. His best year (2000) the park factor for batters was 131! But this does not dismiss him as not being a good hitter as his road splits may be alot worse than the home stats they are still really good. Also he is one of the best at 1B defensivley of all time. But for me he is going to have to have some more good seasons and not have a wicked big dropoff to be a HOFer.

[Rennie Stennett]

Helton is thirty three (33) years old. If he has five (5) good years left, and he finishes with (2500) hits, (500) doubles, (500) home runs, (.600) slgr %) a (.330) average, and a (.995) fielding percentage Could he make the hall ? With the diet and training of ball players these days he could stay around until he's (40) or older, as long as he wants to continue playing and barring any injury.

[538280]

I said maybe because of his home road splits. I would say no because of them, but Chuck Klein got in with the same kind of skewed numbers, so Helton will probably get in, but I don't think he deserves to.
What would his numbers be if anywhere but Coors was his home field? Not good enough from all the splits I've seen.

Except Helton has an OPS+ nine points higher than Klein, is likely to last much longer, and is one of the best fielders ever at his position. Klein, IMO, doesn't belong in the HOF, and the case for him and the one for Helton is not parallel in any stretch. Helton has been the much better player.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well thanks for the tremendous insight.

Let me ask what a player would have to average, playing at Coors, to merit induction? Are we just not ever going to elect a player from Colorado.

I have the feeling that if Ted Williams hit at Coors there would be people arguing that he shouldn't be in the Hall.

Do you guys actually watch him hit? He is a very talented, and highly intelligent hitter.

That's the reason he doesn't always put up the huge power numbers. Even those seasons when he hit 40+. He did not comprimise average and he took what the pitchers gave him. He also sacrificed many "opportunities" to hit HRs by taking walks. He takes a ton of them, and with this stripped down Colorado line-up, why would a pitcher even bother pitching to him. If Helton was willing to hit .310 in his prime he probably could have put up 55 easily, playing at Coors. You have to respect the hitter who does not prostitute himself to the longball, But unfortunately, that hitter is often chastized instead.

200 hit, 100 walk seasons are pretty rare, regardless of ballpark.
I have no problem inducting a Rockies hitter if he merits induction. The first place I will look at is his road stats. If a Rockies player hits say .315/.400/.550, I would have no problem with his induction. But helton isn't ven close to that. They way I see Helton's road stats is that he is a a good hitter but certainly not a great hitter. He really is not that much better than Ryan Klesko. We wouldn't even be having this discussion if Helton was a career Dodger, or Met, or Cardinal. But he plays his home games at Coors and he hits like Lou Gehrig at home.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here are his splits

Home .375/.469/.694
Road .298/.398/.519

The Coors field has helped him tremoundoulsy. His best year (2000) the park factor for batters was 131! But this does not dismiss him as not being a good hitter as his road splits may be alot worse than the home stats they are still really good. Also he is one of the best at 1B defensivley of all time. But for me he is going to have to have some more good seasons and not have a wicked big dropoff to be a HOFer.
I still don't see the evidence that Helton is one of the greatest defensive first basemen of all time. He 's only three Gold Gloves. I know GGs are not the most accurate way to determine defensive greatness, but defensive greatness is usually apparent to most astute baseball fans. Think about all t he great defensive players of all time since the 1950s. Most of them won a boatload of Gold Gloves. He couyldn't even beat out J.T. Snow. Perhaps someone can post some sabermetric data. I'm not saying that helton suckes with the leather but I din't really get this whole "one of the greatest" stuff.

[Pghfan987]

To me, only looking at Helton's away splits and ignoring his home stats as obsolete is not the right way to look at it.

Home .375/.469/.694
Road .298/.398/.519

So Helton hits 77 points higher at home than he does on the road. You can't just discount him home stats as pointless though. What are the league-wide batting averages at Coors Field? Does the average player hit 30 points higher at Coors? I would guess the batting average difference is closer to 30 points than 80 points.

The point is, if Helton absolutely dominates at Coors Field in a way that is far above most people's extra success due to the higher elevation, then he deserves some credit for his home stats.

I know we have some sabermatricians here who could easily come up with the stat I am looking for. Like if the average player gets a 10% boost for playing at Coors, then we should subtract 10% from Helton's Coors Field totals to get more "normalized" stats. If Coors helped Helton a lot more than the average player (which I suspect it did), I have to give Helton some sort of credit there.

If we say that his home batting average is 77 points higher solely because of the elevation, then all players should have a similar difference in home/road totals. But they don't, do they?

Helton's home stats need to be adjusted, but NOT thrown out the window.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

To me, only looking at Helton's away splits and ignoring his home stats as obsolete is not the right way to look at it.

Home .375/.469/.694
Road .298/.398/.519

So Helton hits 77 points higher at home than he does on the road. You can't just discount him home stats as pointless though. What are the league-wide batting averages at Coors Field? Does the average player hit 30 points higher at Coors? I would guess the batting average difference is closer to 30 points than 80 points.

The point is, if Helton absolutely dominates at Coors Field in a way that is far above most people's extra success due to the higher elevation, then he deserves some credit for his home stats.

I know we have some sabermatricians here who could easily come up with the stat I am looking for. Like if the average player gets a 10% boost for playing at Coors, then we should subtract 10% from Helton's Coors Field totals to get more "normalized" stats. If Coors helped Helton a lot more than the average player (which I suspect it did), I have to give Helton some sort of credit there.

If we say that his home batting average is 77 points higher solely because of the elevation, then all players should have a similar difference in home/road totals. But they don't, do they?

Helton's home stats need to be adjusted, but NOT thrown out the window.
Why can't Helton hit .320 on the road? If he is such a great hitter shouldn't he able to do that? Remember, he is a first baseman, probably the most stacked positon in the HoF. Shoot, he has stiff competition from his own era. Thomas, Bagwell, Thome, Degado, Pujols. The man has hit .375 at home for his career. Do you really think that Helton is anywere near a legit .375 hitter? I'd give Helton more come props if he could hit at least .315-.325 on the road. As I 've stated before, a .519 slugging percentage in the modern game from a first baseman is NOT impressive at all.

Road OBP/slugging/OPS

Thome .403/.534/.937
Degado .386/.539/.924
Helton .398/.519/.917

Helton is a good hitter, but he's not a great hitter.

[four tool]

298-398-519 917 OPS on road just aren't hall of fame caliber because of the Coors effect at home.
and if his over numbers meroit induction look at the other 1B with comparable numbrs and no Coors to help.

It's the Hall of Fame, not the hall of crunched numbers.

[538280]

I have no problem inducting a Rockies hitter if he merits induction. The first place I will look at is his road stats. If a Rockies player hits say .315/.400/.550, I would have no problem with his induction. But helton isn't ven close to that. They way I see Helton's road stats is that he is a a good hitter but certainly not a great hitter. He really is not that much better than Ryan Klesko. We wouldn't even be having this discussion if Helton was a career Dodger, or Met, or Cardinal. But he plays his home games at Coors and he hits like Lou Gehrig at home.

According to BP, Helton has been consistently 15 runs above average with the glove, which is a great total. If he continues and lasts about 2000 games, he's on pace right now to unseat Keith Hernandez as the greatest fielding 1B of all time. He is currently 85 runs above average, which already is higher than such great fielders as Roger Connor and Vic Power.

Defensive Win Shares are harder to find, but Helton has probably averaged around 2.83 DWS per season, which is an outstanding total for a 1Bman.

I'm not sure why he hasn't won more Gold Gloves, because the statistical systems certainly show him to be. Maybe playing out in Colorado has taken him off the spotlight, or maybe people are too busy focusing on hitting to realize what a great fielder he is. I don't know.

Anyway, HWR, even if you think Helton is only as good a hitter as his road stats say if he can last 2000 games with his fielding he's still a HOFer.

[mac195]

Still too early to tell IMO.. If his career ended this year, I'd say no, but he's only 32 so he still has a lot of ball left to be played, assuming he stays healthy...

His overall #'s now are on pace to be HOF worthy IMO, but he needs some more consistant years to get in IMO:)
Yep. He isn't so good that he has a spot locked up already after only 8 full seasons, but he is on track. If he can remain a very good player for several more years, he'll be inducted.

[digglahhh]

Hello, how many times do I have to say this...

Everybody else plays road games at Coors! Helton does not.

HWR,

Klesko has had more road ABs at Coors than any other park, Coors accounts for 10% of his total road ABs. By making this comparison you just transfer a huge Coors advantage to Klesko. Not to mention that Klesko's home park is terrible, so when you double the road numbers you dismiss the worst hitter's park because that is his home and then count the best park because Kleko plays on the road there.

Klesko's road stats get all Colorado games and no San Diego games.

Helton gets no Colorado games and all his San Diego ones.

Let's go deeper, shall we...

What about the fact that the some of the worst hitter's parks are in the league are in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, Petco, AT&T or whatever its called this year, is no bargain either. So, Helton gets the unbalanced division schedule where he plays more road games at these three parks than anywhere else. Of course its going to depress his road numbers, especially in contrast to Coors, where he gets a boost.

Let's look at his splits in his division:

Dodger Stadium:.249/.375/.445 (209 ABs)
Qualcomm: .275/.369/.433 (178 ABs)
Pac Bell/SBC: .267/.389/448 (172 ABs) He tore up SF when it was 3Com .366/.422/.463 (41 ABs)
Bank One: .291/.420/.547 (203 ABs)

* Klesko at Coors: .341/.418/.663 (258 ABs)


Now, let's say Helton played in the NL East, with that imbalanced schedule, what are his road numbers where he would play most road games now...

Shea: .320/.419/.620
Turner Field: .306/.398/.532
Pro Player: .267/.333/.464
Olympic: .357/.463/.663
Veteran's: ..356/.463/.622


The point is that with the amount of pitchers parks in the NL West and the imbalanced schedule, the splits for Colorado player are set up to make them look like products of Coors. They get tons of road games at pitchers parks and none in their own paradise. While others in the division get their home #s depressed and their road stats bumped by Coors. Add on top of that the fact that most players hit better at home anyway, and you have a recipe for tremendously skewed data that represents itself as objective.

[Brooklyn]

Hello, how many times do I have to say this...

Everybody else plays road games at Coors! Helton does not.

HWR,

Klesko has had more road ABs at Coors than any other park, Coors accounts for 10% of his total road ABs. By making this comparison you just transfer a huge Coors advantage to Klesko. Not to mention that Klesko's home park is terrible, so when you double the road numbers you dismiss the worst hitter's park because that is his home and then count the best park because Kleko plays on the road there.

Klesko's road stats get all Colorado games and no San Diego games.

Helton gets no Colorado games and all his San Diego ones.

Let's go deeper, shall we...

What about the fact that the some of the worst hitter's parks are in the league are in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, Petco, AT&T or whatever its called this year, is no bargain either. So, Helton gets the unbalanced division schedule where he plays more road games at these three parks than anywhere else. Of course its going to depress his road numbers, especially in contrast to Coors, where he gets a boost.

Let's look at his splits in his division:

Dodger Stadium:.249/.375/.445 (209 ABs)
Qualcomm: .275/.369/.433 (178 ABs)
Pac Bell/SBC: .267/.389/448 (172 ABs) He tore up SF when it was 3Com .366/.422/.463 (41 ABs)
Bank One: .291/.420/.547 (203 ABs)

* Klesko at Coors: .341/.418/.663 (258 ABs)


Now, let's say Helton played in the NL East, with that imbalanced schedule, what are his road numbers where he would play most road games now...

Shea: .320/.419/.620
Turner Field: .306/.398/.532
Pro Player: .267/.333/.464
Olympic: .357/.463/.663
Veteran's: ..356/.463/.622


The point is that with the amount of pitchers parks in the NL West and the imbalanced schedule, the splits for Colorado player are set up to make them look like products of Coors. They get tons of road games at pitchers parks and none in their own paradise. While others in the division get their home #s depressed and their road stats bumped by Coors. Add on top of that the fact that most players hit better at home anyway, and you have a recipe for tremendously skewed data that represents itself as objective.

Excellent post, couldn't agree with you more. Home / Road splits are a good starting point, but you can't just ignore home numbers

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Hello, how many times do I have to say this...

Everybody else plays road games at Coors! Helton does not.

HWR,

Klesko has had more road ABs at Coors than any other park, Coors accounts for 10% of his total road ABs. By making this comparison you just transfer a huge Coors advantage to Klesko. Not to mention that Klesko's home park is terrible, so when you double the road numbers you dismiss the worst hitter's park because that is his home and then count the best park because Kleko plays on the road there.

Klesko's road stats get all Colorado games and no San Diego games.

Helton gets no Colorado games and all his San Diego ones.

Let's go deeper, shall we...

What about the fact that the some of the worst hitter's parks are in the league are in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, Petco, AT&T or whatever its called this year, is no bargain either. So, Helton gets the unbalanced division schedule where he plays more road games at these three parks than anywhere else. Of course its going to depress his road numbers, especially in contrast to Coors, where he gets a boost.

Let's look at his splits in his division:

Dodger Stadium:.249/.375/.445 (209 ABs)
Qualcomm: .275/.369/.433 (178 ABs)
Pac Bell/SBC: .267/.389/448 (172 ABs) He tore up SF when it was 3Com .366/.422/.463 (41 ABs)
Bank One: .291/.420/.547 (203 ABs)

* Klesko at Coors: .341/.418/.663 (258 ABs)


Now, let's say Helton played in the NL East, with that imbalanced schedule, what are his road numbers where he would play most road games now...

Shea: .320/.419/.620
Turner Field: .306/.398/.532
Pro Player: .267/.333/.464
Olympic: .357/.463/.663
Veteran's: ..356/.463/.622


The point is that with the amount of pitchers parks in the NL West and the imbalanced schedule, the splits for Colorado player are set up to make them look like products of Coors. They get tons of road games at pitchers parks and none in their own paradise. While others in the division get their home #s depressed and their road stats bumped by Coors. Add on top of that the fact that most players hit better at home anyway, and you have a recipe for tremendously skewed data that represents itself as objective.
All right! All right! All right. You guys win! :rolleyes: I guess I've been too hard on the former Nebraska punter. I got smacked with a good statistical argument. :laugh I promise I won't hate on Helton anymore...:D

[four tool]

No we can't ignore home numbers, but we can't ignore road numbers. The Helton splits seem to make him very dependent on which park is his home park and that is not an indication of a really good consistent hitter.

Ted williams, for instance, only hit less than 300 in one park for his entire career. Extreme example to be sure, but the point is some kind of consistency.

[yankillaz]

Not yet. This is his 10th season overall, and ninth complete. We can discuss this in two or three years from now.

[Captain Cold Nose]

All right! All right! All right. You guys win! :rolleyes: I guess I've been too hard on the former Nebraska punter. I got smacked with a good statistical argument. :laugh I promise I won't hate on Helton anymore...:D
Todd Helton was a former Nebraska punter, too? I though Darrin Erstad was.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Todd Helton was a former Nebraska punter, too? I though Darrin Erstad was.
I was wrong again, Helton was a backup QB at Tennessee to Heath Shuler and Peyton Manning.

[Rennie Stennett]

Pac Bell/SBC: .267/.389/448 (172 ABs) He tore up SF when it was

3Com .366/.422/.463 (41 ABs)


It's weird he does better @ The Stick then @ SBC. I know at The Stick, if your a lefty and you can get it up, the wind carries out to right. Day games were better for hitters then night, but even then, it would be hot during the day, but about 3:00 or 4:00pm the wind started and talk about freeze a**.
Wow. I went from shorts and a T-Shirt to sweats and a wool hat in no time. How did Mays play there so long ? My buddy told me that during batting practice one time, the wind picked up and carried the batting cage 60 feet towards the outfield.

Bonds makes SBC's rightfield short porch look so easy, you think it would be a lefties' dream to hit there.

[1doug]

Well thanks for the tremendous insight.

Let me ask what a player would have to average, playing at Coors, to merit induction? Are we just not ever going to elect a player from Colorado.

I have the feeling that if Ted Williams hit at Coors there would be people arguing that he shouldn't be in the Hall.

Do you guys actually watch him hit? He is a very talented, and highly intelligent hitter.

That's the reason he doesn't always put up the huge power numbers. Even those seasons when he hit 40+. He did not comprimise average and he took what the pitchers gave him. He also sacrificed many "opportunities" to hit HRs by taking walks. He takes a ton of them, and with this stripped down Colorado line-up, why would a pitcher even bother pitching to him. If Helton was willing to hit .310 in his prime he probably could have put up 55 easily, playing at Coors. You have to respect the hitter who does not prostitute himself to the longball, But unfortunately, that hitter is often chastized instead.

200 hit, 100 walk seasons are pretty rare, regardless of ballpark.

First of all, you're quite welcome!:rolleyes:

I agree that Helton is a really good player, very solid. But to me he just isn't a HOF. But then I dont have a vote.

[digglahhh]

First of all, you're quite welcome!:rolleyes:

I agree that Helton is a really good player, very solid. But to me he just isn't a HOF. But then I dont have a vote.

Okay, but why?

In what respects do you think he falls short in comparison to other HOFers, maybe more specifically, HOF 1Bs?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Okay, but why?

In what respects do you think he falls short in comparison to other HOFers, maybe more specifically, HOF 1Bs?
For me, I see Helton as slightly better than Ryan Klesko. And no one is arguing Klesko for the HoF. Also I have Helton rated behind guys like Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome. Another thing is that Helton has never had a great baseball "moment" or "moments". Can we point to a defining moment or moments in Helton's career? As a ballplayer he's not that famous amongst even baseball fans. Helton is a very good player and I would support his HoF candidacy if he has a long career and ages well. But at least right now I don't see him as a "slam-dunk, no doubt about it" HoFer. But I have softed my view on Helton. I will not vomit he is inducted to the HoF and that is progress on my part. :D

[538280]

For me, I see Helton as slightly better than Ryan Klesko. And no one is arguing Klesko for the HoF.

As good as Ryan Klesko? No way as overall players, but maybe as hitters. But, like I said, the comparison to Klesko really isn't such an insult. Klesko has a 130 OPS+, but is a brutal fielder (according to DWS one of the ten worst 1Bmen ever to play 5000 innings at the position) and probably isn't going to last very long. Even if Helton is a 130 OPS+ type hitter, if he can last 2000 games with his fielding (see the statistics I cited earlier) that's still a HOFer. If Ryan Klesko was one of the best fielding 1B of all time and lasted 2000 games, I'm sure we'd have people arguing for him.


Also I have Helton rated behind guys like Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome.

I do too, but both of them are probably going to post some really awesome numbers and it's going to be hard for the writers to keep them out as long as they stay away from steroids.


Another thing is that Helton has never had a great baseball "moment" or "moments". Can we point to a defining moment or moments in Helton's career? As a ballplayer he's not that famous amongst even baseball fans. Helton is a very good player and I would support his HoF candidacy if he has a long career and ages well. But at least right now I don't see him as a "slam-dunk, no doubt about it" HoFer. But I have softed my view on Helton. I will not vomit he is inducted to the HoF and that is progress on my part. :D

I'm glad you've finally realized that Helton is on his way to making a HOF career. I do agree with you that I question whether or not right now he's a HOFer, but he's well on his way and I see no reason why he won't eventually get there.

[Joltin' Joe]

Judging a player solely on his road stat is unfair. Most players hit much better at home. Also comparing Helton's road numbers and his NL peer's road numbers is unfair also as his peers road numbers have the benefit of Coors built in while Helton's ironically does not.
The only fair way to judge a Rockie is to look at adjusted stats like OPS+ & EqA. And Helton's are pretty good. Not great but good. Factor in his excellent D and in my mind, he is a HOFer.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Judging a player solely on his road stat is unfair. Most players hit much better at home. Also comparing Helton's road numbers and his NL peer's road numbers is unfair also as his peers road numbers have the benefit of Coors built in while Helton's ironically does not.
The only fair way to judge a Rockie is to look at adjusted stats like OPS+ & EqA. And Helton's are pretty good. Not great but good. Factor in his excellent D and in my mind, he is a HOFer.
I also compared him to Thome and Delgado, two players who have played mostly in the American League.

[Joltin' Joe]

I also compared him to Thome and Delgado, two players who have played mostly in the American League.

Thome and Delgado are terrible defensive firstbaseman. Helton is arguably the very best defensive firstbaseman in the game right now.

[digglahhh]

HWR,

Perhaps, there was some miscommunication. I'm not saying that I would necesarrily vote for him tomorrow. But through a good portion of a career, Helton is well above the HOF curve, IMO. Basically, with a normal finish to his career, I think he should be worthy.

Basically, I think it is more likely that I will support Helton upon the culmination of his career than it is that I won't.

[Chisox]

HWR,

Perhaps, there was some miscommunication. I'm not saying that I would necesarrily vote for him tomorrow. But through a good portion of a career, Helton is well above the HOF curve, IMO. Basically, with a normal finish to his career, I think he should be worthy.

Basically, I think it is more likely that I will support Helton upon the culmination of his career than it is that I won't.
I think I'm in line on that. Although I don't have Delgado or Helton in my current top 25 with about ten just from the last 25 years or so on.

[Pghfan987]

Hello, how many times do I have to say this...

Everybody else plays road games at Coors! Helton does not.

HWR,

Klesko has had more road ABs at Coors than any other park, Coors accounts for 10% of his total road ABs. By making this comparison you just transfer a huge Coors advantage to Klesko. Not to mention that Klesko's home park is terrible, so when you double the road numbers you dismiss the worst hitter's park because that is his home and then count the best park because Kleko plays on the road there.

Klesko's road stats get all Colorado games and no San Diego games.

Helton gets no Colorado games and all his San Diego ones.

Let's go deeper, shall we...

What about the fact that the some of the worst hitter's parks are in the league are in the NL West. Dodger Stadium, Petco, AT&T or whatever its called this year, is no bargain either. So, Helton gets the unbalanced division schedule where he plays more road games at these three parks than anywhere else. Of course its going to depress his road numbers, especially in contrast to Coors, where he gets a boost.

Let's look at his splits in his division:

Dodger Stadium:.249/.375/.445 (209 ABs)
Qualcomm: .275/.369/.433 (178 ABs)
Pac Bell/SBC: .267/.389/448 (172 ABs) He tore up SF when it was 3Com .366/.422/.463 (41 ABs)
Bank One: .291/.420/.547 (203 ABs)

* Klesko at Coors: .341/.418/.663 (258 ABs)


Now, let's say Helton played in the NL East, with that imbalanced schedule, what are his road numbers where he would play most road games now...

Shea: .320/.419/.620
Turner Field: .306/.398/.532
Pro Player: .267/.333/.464
Olympic: .357/.463/.663
Veteran's: ..356/.463/.622


The point is that with the amount of pitchers parks in the NL West and the imbalanced schedule, the splits for Colorado player are set up to make them look like products of Coors. They get tons of road games at pitchers parks and none in their own paradise. While others in the division get their home #s depressed and their road stats bumped by Coors. Add on top of that the fact that most players hit better at home anyway, and you have a recipe for tremendously skewed data that represents itself as objective.

Absolutely spectacular work. This is sort of what I was thinking before, but you articulated it much, much better.

This is the thing with statistics. If just look his raw numbers, he looks great. But then if we look at his home/road splits, he looks not so great. Then we analyze the validity of those splits, and he looks great again!

I don't think being one of the Top 10 first basemen of all-time is out of reach, although maybe not likely. Then again, I am still expecting him to return to his old form.

I think that Helton gets in

[four tool]

The rest of his career will determine is eliigibility, right now I still don't think I'd vote for him--but then again I am also opposed to Jim Rice getting in.

[Sockeye]

He's 32 and in his 10th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2557
At-Bats 9120
Runs 1848
Hits 3070
Doubles 746
Triples 40
Home Runs 542
RBI's 1830
Stolen Bases 50
Walks 1546
AVG .330
OBP .425
SLG .590

[rockin500]

i think his average will end up lowering. it was .337 coming into this year and its been declining three straight years. granted, .320 is still excellent.

His biggest problem is going to be the coors field bias. Rightly or wrongly, he's going to be scrutinized very closely.

I dont think he can lose production significantly any over the next three years at the minimum (from 2005). If he does remain at last years level as the worst, I think he will have built a very significant case for his candidacy. And if he has just one or two more years like 2002 or 2003, I would say definitely he deserves in.

[jalbright]

Please see this thread: http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=42431

[jalbright]

I'd say I think he should make it, though whether the writers will screw him due to playing in Coors is anybody's guess. I think he's probably going to have to put up a better than usual case for the Hall to make it, and he's certainly capable of that. Presently, he's at or near HOF territory in black ink, gray ink, HOF standards, top 3 seasons in win shares, and best five consecutive in win shares. Five all-star games and three gold gloves by this point hardly contradict that. His MVP shares is weak, but when you think of how the Rockies have done, I wouldn't give that too much weight. If he gets about 80 more win shares with nothing else, I'd say he should go, though like I said, he'll probably need to do better than that.

Jim Albright

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think he will, though not necessarily on the first ballot. As time goes by, Helton, like everybody else, will have his batting stats pulling most of the weight for his candidacy, and over time, that will help Helton.

Helton is perceived as a guy who'd be a star anywhere; he's not the second coming of Andres Gallaraga. This works in his favor, and he'll make it someday.

[four tool]

I'm not sure I'd vote for Todd, but I do think he will make it. Analysing the Coors vs. road numbers is the key. As the other thread pointed out, the rest of his division has pitchers' parks so his numbers are lowered for a lot of games.

[The Ghost of GSP]

Based on what I've seen (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/heltoto01.shtml), I think he's Hall-worthy. I think of him as a souped-up Keith Hernandez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernake01.shtml), without the speed but more homerun power (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2003/07/todd_helton_why.php). The key is defense. If his glovework continues to shine over the next four years, he's cleared the bar. I like him quite a bit.

[digglahhh]

This is one of those questions where the "will" or "should" becomes the key. I think it is likely that his by the end of his career he will be worthy but I am somewhat skeptical that he will get the support I feel that he merits.

We will learn a lot from how Larry Walker does.

If Walker doesn't get considerable support, it may be safe to assume that Ted Williams would be sitting outside the Hall had he wore a Rockies uniform. Mind you I said, considerable support, not inducted.

[TheSandman]

He deserves it but there's a good chance it won't happen.

[redban]

I don't see Tod helton getting in the HOF.

If he manages to have a couple of years reministant to 00' and 01',he may grab some people's attention..

But even then...he still wouldn't be first ballot..

Would he put up the same numbers if he played in Fenway or Wrigley?

We'll never know..

[Fuzzy Bear]

No. He's mike sweeney as a hitter without coors.

Mike Sweeney would be a HOF hitter if he could stay healthy. Helton stays healthy. His record away from Coors x 2 is Hall-worthy.

[brett]

Well thanks for the tremendous insight.
Let me ask what a player would have to average, playing at Coors, to merit induction? Are we just not ever going to elect a player from Colorado.



After the first 10 years of play in Coors field, it was estimated that if a player plays 1/2 of his games there, versus an average park, his batting average would be 10% higher (ie .300 becoming .330), and he would have 20% more HRs and 25% more RBIs. It doesn't have quite the same effect on the TOP hitters, because they can only go so high (no one's going to hit .500 at home, although Walker hit .462 at home and less than .300 on the road during his .379 season.

That being said, Helton needs to LAST. His 162 game averages go from .337/34/116 to .303/27/87 with that adjustment. Playing half your games in Coors probably hurts your road numbers though.

He does walk. He is a very good defensive first baseman. He also seems to have lost some muscle in the shoulders over the last year.

I am from CO and I hope he lasts long enough to deserve to get in, but I wouldn't be expecting to vote for him right now.

[SABR Matt]

I believe Helton is a HOF caliber player. He mighrt have to play out his career a few more years to get wide acceptence, but even removing the Coors Field effect, Helton has been one of the best hitting first basemen in baseball for ten years. Not to mention his world-class defensive ability.

[flash143817]

Helton's power numbers have fallen dramatically in the last 2-3 years. That is really going to hurt his case. Not sure the reason for the power dropoff, but if it continues and he falls below 20 HR per season the next few years, then he is going to look like Keith Hernandez and not get in even if he deserves it.

I'd have a hard time thinking a 1Bman that could barely crack 20 HR a season in Coors is going to impress HOF voters. That appears to be the road Helton is headed down for the rest of his career. Now I know that Coors has become a less offensive park the past couple of years because of the humidifiers they put the balls in to make them less explosive, so perhaps that is the cause of his power outage.

I am quite suspicious of all these players though whose power fell dramatically since testing has been implemented. It could just be random coincidence or natural decline due to aging, but I'm not completely ready to accept that when it seems to coincide perfectly with the arrival of testing.

[four tool]

IMHO Helton's power drop is due to age and the change in overall numbers at Coors, not to a lack of ingested enhancers. His fall off seems consistent with his non Coors production, everyone's Coors production in the last couple of years and his age, so there is no need to add steriods etc. into the mix.
That said, I still don't quite see him in the hall, but the voters may decide to send him if they beleive or know he was clean. They may decide to reward clean and possibly iffy players just to prove a point.

[brett]

I will add that Helton is greatly underrated defensively. He should have 6 gold gloves right now, at least. Only by actually watching him day in and day out is that clear. First, although he makes less plays than Hernandez did, so do first basemen in general in today's game, and relative to the number of TCs for 1st basemen league wide, Helton is actually superior to Hernandez. In fact, I can't find another first baseman who has a higher RELATIVE range factor. Helton is 117%, Hernandez was 114%, Mattingly 111%, Bagwell 113%.

Second, if you watch him everyday, you realize that he does not really make ANY errors. He does end up with errors on paper, but I honestly cannot remember an error he made which was not one of those "well in this case, they have to give Helton the error" things. For example, charging a bunt like no one else can, and making a perfect throw to home only to have the catcher not be able to hold on due to a collision with the runner from third, or charging and throwing to second. Again, quite honestly, every error I can remember from him involved him first doing something that other first baseman can't do, second, fielding cleanly, third, throwing cleanly, and fourth-they have to give someone the error when the receiver can't hold on as the runner arrives. He basically has made ZERO bad plays in 5 years.

[538280]

Yeah, Helton is a truly tremendous fielder. Most of the non-Helton people completely ignore that. Most defensive metrics I've seen have him right with Hernandez, Vic Power, Roger Connor, and a few others as the best defensive 1Bmen of all time.

[Seattle1]

I hate to say it, but I had to vote no.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Yeah, Helton is a truly tremendous fielder. Most of the non-Helton people completely ignore that. Most defensive metrics I've seen have him right with Hernandez, Vic Power, Roger Connor, and a few others as the best defensive 1Bmen of all time.

Chris,

As you already know great defensive at first base is not that valuable. Besides how many first basemen are in the HoF because of their defense?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Chris,

As you already know great defensive at first base is not that valuable. Besides how many first basemen are in the HoF because of their defense?

Frank Chance, in part. (Chance's offense was surprisingly valuble for his time.)

Keith Hernandez will be the first 1B to get into the HOF mainly on defense, if he ever gets there.

[baseball junkie]

It is way too early to tell but indications are that he's already started to decline. In fact, he started to siginificantly decline last season at age 31. If the decline continues and considering he plays in Coors Field and played in the Steriod ERA, no.

Put him out in Dodger Stadium for a couple of years and see how he hits and if he still maintains his totals, then sure.

Over all I'd say insufficient data.

[BiggestYankeeFan_in_Memphis]

He has had a decent career thus far. Here are his numbers
.333 BA/ .591 SLG/ 144 OPS+/ 292 HR/ 1766 Hits in 11 seasons.
I know where he plays it has an affect on his power numbers, but do you think playing where he does may hurt his HOF chances? Do you think he is even worthy of HOF induction?

[tearforamariner]

He has had a decent career thus far. Here are his numbers
.333 BA/ .591 SLG/ 144 OPS+/ 292 HR/ 1766 Hits in 11 seasons.
I know where he plays it has an affect on his power numbers, but do you think playing where he does may hurt his HOF chances? Do you think he is even worthy of HOF induction?

Where he plays effects more than just his power numbers:

Home: .369 BA | .465 OBP | .670 SLG

Road: .296 BA | .395 OBP | .508 SLG

Now that's an insane drop all around. On the road, he still hits great, just not near the out-of-this-world numbers he puts up at Coors.

I think the best question here is: Are Todd Helton's road spilts Hall of Fame numbers for a first baseman?

[BiggestYankeeFan_in_Memphis]

That's a fairly big split for a HOFer. Like you said it is still good numbers, but his home numbers are just plain ridiculous. I like Todd Helton and I would like to see him get in, but with the people he has around today that play the same position (heck even just in the NL) he will have to be lights out for the rest of his career, which his numbers will more than likely dwindle as his age rises. I don't know he is definitely on the fence, if he has a stellar finish to his career i don't see why you can't induct him.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Where he plays effects more than just his power numbers:

Home: .369 BA | .465 OBP | .670 SLG

Road: .296 BA | .395 OBP | .508 SLG

Now that's an insane drop all around. On the road, he still hits great, just not near the out-of-this-world numbers he puts up at Coors.

I think the best question here is: Are Todd Helton's road spilts Hall of Fame numbers for a first baseman?
For a first baseman playing in the 1990s-2000s his road numbers are clearly not HoF caliber.

[digglahhh]

For a first baseman playing in the 1990s-2000s his road numbers are clearly not HoF caliber.

I wouldn't say "clearly."

.297/.398/.524

Those are Sheff's composite numbers. Now, I know that he is not a 1B (too bad Torre didn't) and that his career is much longer. But on the road, Helton has put up numbers that are really unimpressive only in comparison to his home numbers (especially considering that home numbers are usually a little better anyway, and he doesn't get Coors games included in his road numbers like other players do to help even out their splits).

.300/.400/.500 is very impressive. He's also one of the best defensive 1Bs of his era - not that it means all that much.

Raw production wise, away he is Sheff and at home he is Ted Williams. Relative stats wise, he's sitting at a career OPS+ of 144 over almost 1500 games. That's still no-brainer territory. Helton is experiencing a resurgence of sorts after two sub-Helton seasons. He is entering the part of his career where the counting stats have to make bigger steps forward than the rate steps do backward. Seeing as how he is a good, patient hitter who does not swing for the fences or rely on speed, he has a good chance of aging well, skill-wise. Health-wise is a bigger question mark.

When all is said and done, he'd probably get my vote.

[tearforamariner]

For a first baseman playing in the 1990s-2000s his road numbers are clearly not HoF caliber.

.291 | .398 | .521 are Jeff Bagwell's career road splits.

[jalbright]

I've merged the five threads discussing Helton into this one.

[Fuzzy Bear]

162 averages outside of Coors Field...

.298/.394/.526
171 hits
44 doubles
2 triples
28 home runs
94 RBI
90 walks
88 strikeouts

So Helton's definitely doing damage outside of Coors, but yeah, Coors is making him look much better than he really is. .298 with 28 homers, 94 RBI, and solid fielding at first base is great, but I dunno... you don't really get amped up about putting a guy like that into the Hall of Fame, especially for a slow first baseman in this day and age.

Coors Field really makes some weird splits though. Vinny Castilla from last year is pretty odd.

At home, he hit .321/.379/.575 with 14 homers and 80 RBI. On the road, he hit .218/.281/.493 with 21 homers and 51 RBI. Talk about swinging for the fences.

Helton is on a HOF pace, based on his road numbers per 162 games. Most players put up better numbers in their home park; it's just that Coors gives a greater boost to BA (though not so much HRs). With a NORMAL Home/Road differential, Helton projects out to a guy on the pathway to hitting .305 lifetime with around 400 jacks, a good OBP, and a great glove.

If he petered out now, he wouldn't go. But if he has a long career, and maintains his peak, Helton will make the HOF, and should. That he plays in Coors Field should not cancel out all he does just because of the home park.

[philkid3]

Please feel free to explain. As I know most of you will.

[yankillaz]

I think it's obvious.

[dgarza]

I say YES.
And assuming he continues his career, he'd have to really, really hurt his career for another 7-10 years to negate all he's done so far.

[KCGHOST]

He's certainly not there yet, but four more seasons like he just had would get him there for me. The problems he has are the 1) Coors Field negative effect on voters, 2) lack of airtime from the ESPN hype machine, 3) a dramatic drop in his power numbers over the last three years as compared to his first 7 seasons may be signaling something, and 4) despite playing in the HR Era and in Coors Field he is going to struggle to get to 400 HR's.

[fenrir]

helton was accused of steroids before, so that may hurt his chances. coors doesn't help either.

[PVNICK]

I never heard the steroids allegation other than as a supposition on this board.

As far as his candidacy with that .332 batting average if he plays long enough to get over say 1500 in runs and RBI 2500 hit and 400 HR even when it slides into the .320s its hard to see him being denied even if he stays a Colorodo Rockie. A big WS would help. The fact that all his league leading totals were in one season 2000 doesn't help.

[fenrir]

i remember hearing something about his manager telling him to stop using roids or something. he was accused.

[PVNICK]

I don't doubt what you recall, but at some point it becomes like the "Telephone Game." Someone once said a lie can be halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get out of bed or something like that.

[dgarza]

I don't doubt what you recall, but at some point it becomes like the "Telephone Game." Someone once said a lie can be halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get out of bed or something like that.

Wayne Hagin better have some good camo.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2018289

[Brooklyn]

He's certainly not there yet, but four more seasons like he just had would get him there for me. The problems he has are the 1) Coors Field negative effect on voters, 2) lack of airtime from the ESPN hype machine, 3) a dramatic drop in his power numbers over the last three years as compared to his first 7 seasons may be signaling something, and 4) despite playing in the HR Era and in Coors Field he is going to struggle to get to 400 HR's.

Until I read your post and looked up the numbers, I didn't realize just how much his power has dropped. You are right, 400 is giong to be tougher then I would have thought

[Brooklyn]

Here are two players who just finsihed their age 33 season:

Helton 1878 hits / 303 HR / 1104 runs / 1087 RBI / .332 / .430 / .583 / 142 OPS+ / 3 gold gloves / 5 time all star

Jeter 2356 hits / 195 HR / 1379 runs / 933 rBIs / .317 / .388 / .462 / 123 OPS+ / 3 gold gloves / 8 time all star

I hate to bring this into another Jeter thread, but I'm going to do it anyway. I don't see how the general consensus is that Jeter is a sure fire HOfer and Helton is not. Jeter has more hits and runs, and Helton has more HRs and RBI's, and much better percentages, particulalry OBP and slugging, even relative to ball parl.

Is the positional adjustment that much to not only make up the huge edge in offense to Helton, but also surpass it enough that Jeter is viewed as a no-brainer and Helton is viewed as needing a few more years?

[PVNICK]

Here are two players who just finsihed their age 33 season:

Helton 1878 hits / 303 HR / 1104 runs / 1087 RBI / .332 / .430 / .583 / 142 OPS+ / 3 gold gloves / 5 time all star

Jeter 2356 hits / 195 HR / 1379 runs / 933 rBIs / .317 / .388 / .462 / 123 OPS+ / 3 gold gloves / 8 time all star

I hate to bring this into another Jeter thread, but I'm going to do it anyway. I don't see how the general consensus is that Jeter is a sure fire HOfer and Helton is not. Jeter has more hits and runs, and Helton has more HRs and RBI's, and much better percentages, particulalry OBP and slugging, even relative to ball parl.

Is the positional adjustment that much to not only make up the huge edge in offense to Helton, but also surpass it enough that Jeter is viewed as a no-brainer and Helton is viewed as needing a few more years?
I think Jeter just got annointed by year 5 after the 4th WS ring in 5 years. That and never being seen loafing, checking out his long fly balls, as far as I know performing any other "look at me" crap like pointing at the sky, helped him be seen as a consummate professional with no negative baggage. A little boy named Jeffrey Maier, the dive into the stands, the "flip" and a leadoff HR after the Mets won a game in the WS all helped. So play SS for the most successful franchise in the sport, date celebrity females, play in the post-season every year have a few highlight or big plays that are seen coast-to-coast and you get his status.

[jalbright]

I'm merging this new thread with an older one, so please pay attention to when a post was made. I'm keeping the new poll in preference to the old mostly due to the effects of the passage of time on the earlier results.

Jim Albright

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

I'm hoping to revive the Todd Helton HOF discussion. Helton has done absolutely nothing to help his chances in '08. After a mediocre start, he stayed injured for most of the season. Still, his career marks are .328/.428/.574, a 141 OPS+, 310 homers, 1,116 RBIs, 1,957 hits, and three Gold Gloves. Rate stats, rather than counting numbers, are probably his ticket. Sub-par seasons cause high rate stats to plummit fast, but Helton's still got a lot of room to fall and still be in HOF company. Although the Rockies don't have much history, he's also regarded as the all-time "face of the franchise", like Brett with the Royals or Gwynn with the Padres. Larry Walker should be a good litmus test for how Helton and his inflated Colorado numbers will be looked at. Has Helton done enough already or does his fate depend on what happens from here on out? If you chose the latter, what does he need to do to get in?

[gman5431]

Is it just me or did he age 10 years this season. Hasnt been able to stay healthy and has been ineffective when he was on the field. Think he could be a HOFer one day but has a way to go.

G Rizzle

[OleMissCub]

Some interesting stats:

Todd Helton is...

10th All-Time in career OBP at .428
10th All-Time in career OPS at 1.002
13th All-Time in career SLG at .574

[Phish]

I would hate to bump this thread, but it's beter than making a new one :)

Lets say the guy plays around 140-150 games for the four seasons (will be 38) at a 160 hit, 15 HR, 85 RBI pace, these will be his numbers.

Hits: 2597
HR: 370
RBI: 1456

I think these are some pretty realistic ending numbers for his career (or maybe a little more). To me, they don't scream HoF. I think he would have to keep his career BA around .320. The one thing that may help Helton is his very low stikeout rate. He has 1041 BB and 810 K's in his career right now. If he ends with those numbers above, he has a chance, but I think he may fall short.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Helton plays in the most extreme hitters' park in history. It is possible that the effect of Coors has been somewhat overstated, but he's still played in the most extreme hitter's park in history. This is cause to consider all of his counting numbers, including his walks.

That being said, Helton is third amongs active players with a .763 OWP. He's 18th all time in OWP amonst all players.

If you take Helton in the context of his OWP, there is no reason to NOT put him in the HOF. OWP is a statistic designed to be park-neutral. Over .700 OWP is the line at which a no-questions-asked HOFer starts, even for guys at the left end of the defensive spectrum. Helton is a great defensive first baseman, a 3x GG winner. There would be no precedent for an excellent defensive player with an OWP at the level of Helton NOT going into the HOF.

Helton's in his decline phase, and he was hurt last year, but he could regain some of what he's lost. He doesn't have to play at he peak level to make the HOF. It would certainly help if he is able to stay in the game, and, as Otis Nixon's Bodyguard pointed out, Helton did nothing to help himself toward the HOF last year. He's far from finished, however, and he may have done enough to make it on what he's already done.

In a real way, the attack on Helton's HOF credentials is an attack on OWP. OWP is a criticized stat, but it is a stat designed to compare guys in different offensive environments. If one views OWP as a valid measure of offensive ability, it is hard to make the case against Helton. If one views even OWP as skewed by Coors, well, that's another issue.

[Bravesfan1984]

Helton has 1 top 5 mvp vote and 3 top ten mvp votes. That and the fact he will not reach 500 homeruns do not bode well for the Hall of Fame.

[Berkman#17]

Helton has 1 top 5 mvp vote and 3 top ten mvp votes. That and the fact he will not reach 500 homeruns do not bode well for the Hall of Fame.

Many, many reasons for his lack of MVP love. Many years the Rockies were not a division title contender, many writers didn't take his stats seriously due to the Coors affect, and he's not on a big market/high volume of coverage team.

I don't think his finishes in MVP races should count against him in regards toward the HOF. Even when he put up a video game esque line of .372/.463/.698 42/147, the best he could do was 5th. 1.161 OPS AND 42 HR's and 147 RBI's.....pretty much shows that no matter what he did he was not going to be given as much credit as other players were.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Helton has 1 top 5 mvp vote and 3 top ten mvp votes. That and the fact he will not reach 500 homeruns do not bode well for the Hall of Fame.

As previously stated, Helton didn't get many MVP votes because of the team he played on. One criterion that you seem to like to evaluate HOF candidates on is the number of seasons in which they contended for the MVP. By this standard, do you think that, because he won the MVP, Justin Morneau did more for his HOF case in 2006 (a season in which he hit .321/.375/.559 with 34 homers, 130 RBIs, and a 140 OPS+) than Helton did for his HOF case in 2000 (.372/.463/.698, 42 homers, 147 RBIs, 163 OPS+) or 2001 (.336/.432/.685, 49 homers, 146 RBIs, 160 OPS+), because he finished fifth and ninth respectively in the MVP voting in those years? Any way you slice it, Todd Helton has had several years that can be considered "MVP caliber" seasons. Attack him on the grounds that he will probably fail to reach any significant HOF career milestones - those arguments need to be brought up. But there's really no room to attack Helton on peak value.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As previously stated, Helton didn't get many MVP votes because of the team he played on. One criterion that you seem to like to evaluate HOF candidates on is the number of seasons in which they contended for the MVP. By this standard, do you think that, because he won the MVP, Justin Morneau did more for his HOF case in 2006 (a season in which he hit .321/.375/.559 with 34 homers, 130 RBIs, and a 140 OPS+) than Helton did for his HOF case in 2000 (.372/.463/.698, 42 homers, 147 RBIs, 163 OPS+) or 2001 (.336/.432/.685, 49 homers, 146 RBIs, 160 OPS+), because he finished fifth and ninth respectively in the MVP voting in those years? Any way you slice it, Todd Helton has had several years that can be considered "MVP caliber" seasons. Attack him on the grounds that he will probably fail to reach any significant HOF career milestones - those arguments need to be brought up. But there's really no room to attack Helton on peak value.

I don't think there should be any question about Helton's HOF-worthiness in terms of Peak Value. On the other hand, the BBWAA seems to be out of the Peak Value business. Other than the (IMO) indefensible selection of Bruce Sutter, I can't think of a significant Peak Value pick the BBWAA has made in recent years.

[Mike90]

I don't think there should be any question about Helton's HOF-worthiness in terms of Peak Value. On the other hand, the BBWAA seems to be out of the Peak Value business. Other than the (IMO) indefensible selection of Bruce Sutter, I can't think of a significant Peak Value pick the BBWAA has made in recent years.

Jim Rice? I'm surprised at how great Helton was at his best, even when adjusting for his monster park. He had four seasons with an OPS+ above 160 and two others above 140, and he's regarded as an excellent fielder. The dropoff last season is not a good sign for his chances, but I would vote for him with two or three more average years.

[MadHatter]

Coors this, Coors that, everybody thinks just because Todd Helton plays in Coors he isn't a good hitter. Check out the away numbers, he hits well everywhere! The best hitters who played for the Rockies were all good after they left, Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Larry Walker, and Andres Galarraga. Larry Walker is the only guy out of these that will make the hall, but if the others had better numbers, they still wouldn't make the hall, all because they played in Coors. Todd Helton is HOF material but will he make it? No. :grouchy

You really think Larry Walker makes the Hall?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jim Rice? I'm surprised at how great Helton was at his best, even when adjusting for his monster park. He had four seasons with an OPS+ above 160 and two others above 140, and he's regarded as an excellent fielder. The dropoff last season is not a good sign for his chances, but I would vote for him with two or three more average years.

Helton may get in the HOF on the "There's too much there!" argument that got Chuck Klein in the HOF. The "There's too much there!" argument is somewhat rational. Lots of guys have played for the Rockies and they don't put up the numbers Helton puts up, or anything close to them. Lots of guys play first base, but they aren't repeat Gold Glovers. Lots of guys play for the Rox, but very few put up multiple .800-plus OWP seasons.

Dick Stuart once hit 66 HRs in a minor league season. Because of that, management tended to discount what he did, citing it as some kind of fluke. That kind of thinking is what gives a guy hitting 30 HRs more attention than a guy hitting 66 HRs. Helton gets that kind of treatment; his accomplishments aren't merely discounted (which might be fair); they're dismissed outright, and that's NOT fair. Not fair to Helton, not fair to his fans, not fair to Rox fans, not fair at all.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

You really think Larry Walker makes the Hall?

Not to get off topic, but I'd vote for him. In summary, he's an MVP, three-time batting titleist, and seven-time Gold Glover with a 140 career OPS+ in almost 2,000 games. That's enough for me. I think he'll have a hard time getting enough support from the BBWAA though. At the rate he's been going lately, Helton may not have quite the resume Walker has when he retires. Helton, however, seems like a bigger name to me, which is worth as much as stats are to the writers. I'm currently right on the fence about Helton anyhow - a couple more reasonably productive seasons and he'll have my support for sure.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Helton may get in the HOF on the "There's too much there!" argument that got Chuck Klein in the HOF.

Helton is actually a great comp for Chuck Klein: eye-popping peak value that is over-inflated in actuality, and a relatively short career resulting in low counting numbers and a lack of milestons (assuming Helton doesn't regain his for from a few years ago). Chuck Klein is considered a divisive inductee around here, but, for what it's worth, Helton is on par with him as a candidate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Helton is actually a great comp for Chuck Klein: eye-popping peak value that is over-inflated in actuality, and a relatively short career resulting in low counting numbers and a lack of milestons (assuming Helton doesn't regain his for from a few years ago). Chuck Klein is considered a divisive inductee around here, but, for what it's worth, Helton is on par with him as a candidate.

Now that I think about it, Larry Walker, actually, is an even better comp for Chuck Klein.

[Sockeye]

It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

Todd Helton at age 34

1661 games
5962 at-bats
1143 runs
1957 hits
471 doubles
31 triples
310 home runs
1116 RBI
36 stolen bases
1041 BB
.328 AVG
.428 OBP
.574 SLG
141 OPS+
3420 total bases
7116 PA's
1504 runs created
9.5 RC/G
.763 OWP
430.1 batting runs
39.8 batting wins
16 black ink
139 gray ink
154 HOF standards
50 HOF monitor
.307 EQA
58.1 WARP1
57.0 WARP3
549 BRAR
362 BRAA
183 FRAR
81 FRAA
266 win shares

[jalbright]

Merged the new thread with the old one, but kept the new poll. For reference, the old poll's results were:

19.5% thought Helton was already qualified for the HOF;
48.8% thought Helton wasn't there yet, but would be by the time he retired;
12.2% didn't think Helton would ever be a HOFer in their minds;
19.5% weren't sure.

[PVNICK]

Helton hasn't seemed like a top end much less HOF player for several seasons. That being said it's going to be real hard to keep out a .320 something lifetime hitter with 400HR who has 3 gold gloves, a batting crown and HR title. There would have to be a Coors Field and era "markdown" along with unsubstantiated or otherwise PED issues.

[Freakshow]

In The Bill James Gold Mine 2009, there is an article discussing Helton's HOF prospects. It uses Win and Loss Shares to compare him to a list of historically similar players. I'll try to give out some of the data maybe tonight.

The bottom line was he rates as a better-fielding verion of Chuck Klein (who James rates as a horrible glove, in the Kiner-F. Howard class.)

[Sockeye]

I think that Todd Helton may be the first true test of how playing in Colorado for the bulk (if not all) of a players career will effect ones HOF voting. Yes, we'll see it to an extent earlier with Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga whom spent a decent portion of and had their best seasons in Colorado. But if Helton can bounce back and have another couple productive seasons then it should give us the best idea yet as to how the voters will view the Colorado effect.

[Freakshow]

In The Bill James Gold Mine 2009, there is an article discussing Helton's HOF prospects. It uses Win and Loss Shares to compare him to a list of historically similar players. I'll try to give out some of the data maybe tonight.

The bottom line was he rates as a better-fielding verion of Chuck Klein (who James rates as a horrible glove, in the Kiner-F. Howard class.)Correction: James concludes that Helton thus far is "a much better player than Chuck Klein, and also clearly better than Ralph Kiner."

Here are the Win and Loss Shares he presents in his article "Todd Helton and the Cooperstown Express" (Batting + Fielding = Overall):

242-11 .955 + 47-55 .460 = 289-66 .813 J. Mize
188-21 .900 + 42-35 .539 = 228-56 .802 H. Greenberg
259-36 .878 + 11-37 .270 = 270-73 .787 E. Martinez
235-29 .889 + 37-52 .418 = 272-81 .771 D. Allen
190-48 .799 + 38-22 .636 = 228-70 .766 T. Helton
240-52 .823 + 39-48 .448 = 279-100 .737 W. Clark
201-50 .800 + 54-49 .525 = 255-99 .720 B. Terry
183-34 .842 + 24-50 .322 = 207-84 .711 R. Kiner
180-45 .800 + 39-53 .427 = 219-98 .691 B. Herman
171-49 .776 + 40-48 .457 = 211-97 .685 D. Camilli
183-65 .737 + 22-40 .351 = 205-106 .660 A. Belle
209-66 .759 + 25-56 .308 = 234-123 .655 F. Howard
214-65 .767 + 32-65 .329 = 228-130 .637 B. Johnson
185-71 .723 + 30-67 .309 = 215-138 .610 C. Klein
161-80 .667 + 31-46 .401 = 192-126 .603 T. Kluszewski

[Altitude]

Excluding Colorado teams in the pro sports hall of fame is nothing new. Just look at the Denver Broncos. I have a feeling that baseball will be the same way with the Rockies.

[brett]

Helton is short on playing time with only 7000 plate appearances. Larry Walker had 8000, with about the same OPS+, was a better baserunner, and a comparably great fielder at a little more value position.

Edgar Martinez had a 147 OPS+ for over 8600 plate appearances. I think he should get in.

Helton's road rates are .295/.394/.494. Most hitters do about 4% better at home, so that might convert to about .301/.402/.504, but with just 7000 PA's. That's good enough rates for a legitimate gold glove first baseman, but about 2000 plate appearances short.

Helton is a legit hitter. He would be a .300 contact hitter, with a good ability to draw walks, and some legitimate pop if he played somewhere else. I think .300/.400/.500 at this point is a legit guess, and he would have still hit about 275 home runs somewhere else, based on splits and split tendancies.

If he can reach 2000 games or 8000 PA's with those rates, he will enter into consideration. If he gets 2200/9000 he will absolutely deserve it.

[Brad Harris]

Correction: James concludes that Helton thus far is "a much better player than Chuck Klein, and also clearly better than Ralph Kiner."

Here are the Win and Loss Shares he presents in his article "Todd Helton and the Cooperstown Express" (Batting + Fielding = Overall):

242-11 .955 + 47-55 .460 = 289-66 .813 J. Mize
188-21 .900 + 42-35 .539 = 228-56 .802 H. Greenberg
259-36 .878 + 11-37 .270 = 270-73 .787 E. Martinez
235-29 .889 + 37-52 .418 = 272-81 .771 D. Allen
190-48 .799 + 38-22 .636 = 228-70 .766 T. Helton
240-52 .823 + 39-48 .448 = 279-100 .737 W. Clark
201-50 .800 + 54-49 .525 = 255-99 .720 B. Terry
183-34 .842 + 24-50 .322 = 207-84 .711 R. Kiner
180-45 .800 + 39-53 .427 = 219-98 .691 B. Herman
171-49 .776 + 40-48 .457 = 211-97 .685 D. Camilli
183-65 .737 + 22-40 .351 = 205-106 .660 A. Belle
209-66 .759 + 25-56 .308 = 234-123 .655 F. Howard
214-65 .767 + 32-65 .329 = 228-130 .637 B. Johnson
185-71 .723 + 30-67 .309 = 215-138 .610 C. Klein
161-80 .667 + 31-46 .401 = 192-126 .603 T. Kluszewski

Another nice case made for Will Clark! :D

[redban]

I say no. Coors Field was too much of a hitter's park.

[bambambaseball]

Yes, definitley!

[Aqua]

Even park-adjusted stats for Helton in his prime look pretty good. Just to take an easy example, for the 2000-2005 stretch that's the peak of his career, his OPS+ numbers were 163, 160, 147, 165, 165, 144. That's a legit HoF peak even for a 1B, especially given Helton's outstanding defensive rep.

He lost a lot of power after the back injury, but he's still been an on-base machine and looks to be having another very good season this year after a poor 2008. I'd like to see a few more good years from him, but he's definitely someone who I think has an excellent HoF case.

[jwkfs]

I know there has been discussion over Helton in the past, usually related to the Coors Field affect. Does this affect the discussion at all?

Saw this stat on Sportcenter. Usually I don't put much stock in these stats which seem to be cherry picked to fit a subset of players, but this subset was pretty good.
Batters with 500 doubles, 320 home runs, .325 batting average:

Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Todd Helton

No one else in recent history has achieved these stats, with or without Coors FIeld. Is Helton a good player who is a product of Coors Field? Or would he have achieved these numbers elsewhere?


Flame on!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Does anyone REALLY think that Todd Helton is as good a hitter as Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, or Musial?

[Brad Harris]

Most Doubles, Outside Cooperstown
746 Pete Rose (permanently ineligible)
668 Craig Biggio (eligible beginning 2013)
601 Barry Bonds (eligible beginning 2013)
596 Luis Gonzalez (eligible beginning 2014)
585 Rafael Palmeiro (eligible beginning 2011)
560 Jeff Kent (eligible beginning 2014)
537 Ivan Rodriguez (still active, 37 years old)
529 Al Oliver
526 Dave Parker
519 Manny Ramirez (still active, 37 years old)
515 Ken Griffey Jr. (still active, 39 years old)
514 Edgar Martinez (eligible beginning 2010)
511 Mark Grace
505 Garret Anderson (still active, 37 years old)
504 Roberto Alomar (eligible beginning 2010)
503 Andre Dawson
500 Todd Helton (sill active, 35 years old)
500 John Olerud (eligible beginning 2011)

[Aqua]

I don't think anyone would make the claim that Helton was as good as Ruth or Williams. I do, however, think he's good enough to make the HoF. His six-year peak OPS+ numbers (which are theoretically park-adjusted) are 163, 160, 147, 165, 165, 144. He's got a 141 career OPS+ with almost 7500 plate appearances. He's won a gold glove, and is considered an excellent fielder, at least during his prime. His career OBP is .427. And, very quietly, he's putting up another very good season this year at age 35.

It doesn't make him Lou Gehrig or Jimmie Foxx or Albert Pujols. It does, however, make him comparable to (and, I probably would argue, superior to) Bill Terry or Orlando Cepeda -- and, while those are often considered borderline HoFers, given that Helton doesn't look like he's finished by any means, I think his career resume will be over the HoF line.

[Kitty Kaat]

Bill James in his 2009 Gold Mine book has an article on if Helton is HOF worthy. He was skeptical, but after crunching Win Shares numbers came to the conclusion Helton deserved to be in.

[dgarza]

It doesn't make him Lou Gehrig or Jimmie Foxx or Albert Pujols. It does, however, make him comparable to (and, I probably would argue, superior to) Bill Terry or Orlando Cepeda -- and, while those are often considered borderline HoFers, given that Helton doesn't look like he's finished by any means, I think his career resume will be over the HoF line.I think your comparisons to Terry and Cepeda are pretty dead on.

While, yes, he does do rather better at Coors batting .360 than he generally does on the road .295, he bats close to .360 at other parks as well.

He's one of the Top 25 1B All-Time pretty solidly, possibly Top 20.

[KCGHOST]

My guess is he will get the same treatment as Larry Walker. The BBWAA will probably see him as a product of Coors and his relatively low HR total for a 1B will be held against him.

[Greg Maddux's Biggest Fan]

Merged thread coming!

[dominik]

Don't think he is in yet. Coors helped him, but this will not held against him too much in the end.

The problem is IMO his low HRs despite first base and Coors. His average and OPS is great though. If he gets over 400 HRs he will be in I think. He need 3 more good years I think.

[brett]

Helton has a 141 OPS+ with over 7000 plate appearances.

Larry Walker is 140 through about 8000 and Edgar Martinez is at 147 with over 8500. I think they are the only guys who are not in with 140 OPS+ through over 8000 plate appearances, and they may struggle in the voting but are not eligible yet.

I would like to see Helton get into the 8500 PA range staying at around 140 and this year has been a pleasant partial return to form. 2 more years close to this one will do it.

He also is a top 10 all time defensive first baseman in my book which is a big boost in my book.

[Fielding Marshall]

My guess is he will get the same treatment as Larry Walker. The BBWAA will probably see him as a product of Coors and his relatively low HR total for a 1B will be held against him.

Kind of hard to say that if Walker's currently ineligible and we don't know how he'll be treated. But you're probably right. :sigh:

[OleMissCub]

The stats look like Helton is likely the best doubles hitter of our era.

500 doubles in 6,286 AB's

Manny: 19 more doubles in 1,465 more AB's

Anderson: 5 more in 1,957 more AB's

Griffey: 15 more in 3,281 more AB's

Pudge: 38 more in 2,620 more AB's

Biggio: 168 more in 4,590 more AB's

Bonds: 101 more in 3,561 more AB's

Gonzo: 96 more in 2,871 more AB's



That said, I think he'll be REAL close, but not quite HOF material. That OPS+ is pretty fat though.

[Cougar]

The rate at which a guy hits doubles is always a great indicator of quality.

If you hit doubles, you're probably hitting lots of singles too, and you're probably hitting your fair share of either triples or home runs (depending on the type of hitter you are).

Everyone with more than 600 doubles is either in the HOF or a lock (or a PED case or Pete Rose, but setting all off-field stuff aside). [Luis Gonzalez thoughtfully stopped at 596 doubles to keep the benchmark 100% valid.]

[OleMissCub]

Ya know, Helton may be the best doubles hitter EVER.

I was just looking through the top 40 or so guys on the career doubles list and looking at their number of AB's around the time they got 500 doubles and the only ones that are close are Paul Waner and Joe Medwick.

Right now Helton is hitting a double every 7.9 AB's. There's nobody I can find really close to that at all.


Another neat Helton stat. In 2000, he led the NL in hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147), BA (.372), OBP (.463), SLG (698), OPS (1.162), Total Bases (405), Times on Base (323), and Runs Created (192).

In Runs Created that year, there wasn't anyone even close to him. He had 192 and the second place hitter was Sosa with 157.

...yet he came in 5th in MVP voting that year. No doubt the "Coors Effect" scared alot of voters away. Although it probably wasn't fair to hold that against him too much that year because on the road he hit .353/.441/.633.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ya know, Helton may be the best doubles hitter EVER.

I was just looking through the top 40 or so guys on the career doubles list and looking at their number of AB's around the time they got 500 doubles and the only ones that are close are Paul Waner and Joe Medwick.

Right now Helton is hitting a double every 7.9 AB's. There's nobody I can find really close to that at all.


Another neat Helton stat. In 2000, he led the NL in hits (216), doubles (59), RBI (147), BA (.372), OBP (.463), SLG (698), OPS (1.162), Total Bases (405), Times on Base (323), and Runs Created (192).

In Runs Created that year, there wasn't anyone even close to him. He had 192 and the second place hitter was Sosa with 157.

...yet he came in 5th in MVP voting that year. No doubt the "Coors Effect" scared alot of voters away. Although it probably wasn't fair to hold that against him too much that year because on the road he hit .353/.441/.633.
Not only that but as late as August 18th, 2000 Helton was hitting .399, one hit short of .400!

[OleMissCub]

Some more Helton nuggets:

Over 13 seasons, his career 162 game avg output is: .328/.427/.571, 30 HR, 109 RBI, 46 Doubles, 3 Triples, 101 Walks, 110 Runs


Career Ranks Among Active Players

OBP: 1st
Offensive Win %: 2nd (behind Pujols)
BA: 3rd (behind Pujols and Ichiro)
SLG: 4th (behind Pujols, Arod, and Manny)
Intentional Walks: 6th
Doubles: 6th
Runs Created: 9th
Extra Base Hits: 10th
OPS+: 10th
Adjusted Batting Runs: 10th
Adjusted Batting Wins: 10th
Walks: 11th
Total Bases: 14th
RBI: 14th
Home Runs: 15th
Times on Base: 15th
Hits: 16th

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Helton has helped his HOF cause in 2009 perhaps more than any active MLB player. I honestly wondered if he was out of gas after that lousy 2008 season. If he can keep up his pace (.322/.407/.525) for the rest of the season, that will be a big feather in his cap. HOF level players (at least those who don't have historic peaks) are expected to produce into their late 30s, and that's exactly what he's doing.

It will be tough for him to reach 400 homers. If he makes it there, I think he gets in the HOF easily. If he doesn't, I don't think it will (perhaps "should" would be a better word choice) hurt him that much. I see Helton as primarily a high-average hitter with gap power and good plate discipline, rather than a home run hitter. Simply playing for the Rockies doesn't obligate a player to be a power hitter. Would we be complaining about Ichiro's home run figures if he played there? No, because that's not the type of hitter he is, and it's not really the type of hitter Helton is either (although he certainly has much better power than Ichiro). Helton has a .328 lifetime average. Assuming it doesn't fall too much, that will be his most eye-popping stat as far as the BBWAA is concerned.

As much respect as Will Clark gets around here, I'm surprised that Helton doesn't get more. Those two are very close in value right now, and Helton's still a middle-of-the-lineup producer.

I have supported Helton's HOF cause for a while now, and I'm starting to think that the BBWAA might too when his time comes.

[jalbright]

Threads merged.

[OleMissCub]

I have supported Helton's HOF cause for a while now, and I'm starting to think that the BBWAA might too when his time comes.

The Hall of Fame would probably also like to have a token Colorado Rockie in the hall as well. So that may help a bit too.

[NJRob65]

The Hall of Fame would probably also like to have a token Colorado Rockie in the hall as well. So that may help a bit too.

I don't think many members of the Baseball Writers Association of America(BBWAA), those who actually vote in the Hall of Fame balloting, care. It's not like it's the All Star game and every team has to be represented.

[OleMissCub]

I don't think many members of the Baseball Writers Association of America(BBWAA), those who actually vote in the Hall of Fame balloting care. It's not it's the All Star game and every team has to be represented.

Because that's totally what I was saying... :crazy

[Zoso]

Black Ink Batting - 16 (143), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 141 (111), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Led in RBI, BA and OPS once. And won't touch 500 homers. All this while playing in Coors? I don't think he's a Hall of Famer. Not without an impressive playoff resume to go along with those numbers. You'd want much better black and grey ink from a guy playing in Denver.

No doubt he's an excellent hitter, but not a Hall of Famer.

[Aqua]

Black Ink Batting - 16 (143), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 141 (111), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Led in RBI, BA and OPS once. And won't touch 500 homers. All this while playing in Coors? I don't think he's a Hall of Famer. Not without an impressive playoff resume to go along with those numbers. You'd want much better black and grey ink from a guy playing in Denver.

No doubt he's an excellent hitter, but not a Hall of Famer.

He's only three points off in gray ink from the average hall of famer. And you can hardly blame him for the lack of black ink, given that the heart of his career, he was up against Steroid Barry and Albert Pujols.

The back injuries killed his power, pretty much anywhere, but it's also true that Coors played very differently for the second half of his career than the first. It's still a hitter's park, but it's not the place where Vinny Castilla was suddenly transformed into Hank Greenberg.

He's no longer a HR hitter, and hasn't been for several years. But he's a tremendous XBH hitter due to his ungodly doubles rate, and he's got a brilliant OBP due to his excellent batting eye. Even if you're not a strict power hitter, a 141 OPS+ is a 141 OPS+...

And...Colorado hasn't exactly given Helton a lot of playoff chances, which is hardly the man's fault. He didn't do real well in their one extended run, but plenty of HoFers can say the same thing.

[ol' aches and pains]

The back injuries killed his power, pretty much anywhere, but it's also true that Coors played very differently for the second half of his career than the first. It's still a hitter's park, but it's not the place where Vinny Castilla was suddenly transformed into Hank Greenberg.


I have a nagging feeling it wasn't only Coors Field in Vinny's case. :think:

[brett]

I have a nagging feeling it wasn't only Coors Field in Vinny's case. :think:

Naw. He wasn't built like he even picked up a weight. Galarraga I'd agree with. Vinny had a fast bat. For about 5 years he could get around on any fastball, and that was enough with Coors. Also, Vinny's overall offensive stats adjusted for his park were about average for a third baseman. Coors had a park factor of about 125! then. Now its in the 110-117 range. He also went away and lost it, and came back and seemed to get it back.

[Brad Harris]

The only Rockies with any sustained success outside of Coors are Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga. Castilla and Bichette were never remotely as good as their time in Colorado made them out to be.

[brett]

The only Rockies with any sustained success outside of Coors are Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga. Castilla and Bichette were never remotely as good as their time in Colorado made them out to be.

Helton has hit .295 and 124 home runs on the road I think.
And some hitters (Cirillo, and Lansing) got virtually nothing.

[Brad Harris]

Helton has hit .295 and 124 home runs on the road I think.
And some hitters (Cirillo, and Lansing) got virtually nothing.
I apologize, when I say "outside Coors" I meant "for a team besides Colorado".

[OleMissCub]

Just like to reiterate what a few others have pointed out. That .427 OBP (12th all time) is pretty bad to the bone. His OPS at .998 is 10th all time as well.

[Brad Harris]

Assuming Walker is still hanging around the ballot, I wonder how the BBWAA's treatment of Helton would affect that? Minor boost, I assume, if Helton makes it in.

[538280]

Black Ink Batting - 16 (143), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 141 (111), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Led in RBI, BA and OPS once. And won't touch 500 homers. All this while playing in Coors? I don't think he's a Hall of Famer. Not without an impressive playoff resume to go along with those numbers. You'd want much better black and grey ink from a guy playing in Denver.

No doubt he's an excellent hitter, but not a Hall of Famer.

Who cares if a guy led his league in something? It's the relative performance that really matters, and of course especially in Helton's case park adjusted. League leads are an extremely oblique way to measure how good a hitter is. You can have a more impressive relative number one year and not lead the league then actually do worse relative the next year and just happen to lead the league, it all depends on how many people or who happens to be having a hot year. Plus black/gray ink have completely arbitrary and frankly ridiculous weights to different categories. The Triple Crown stats get the highest weight while OBP isn't even included. Black/gray ink are just useless to me. Helton's relative numbers, even park adjusted, are very impressive. There aren't very many players with relative numbers like his that have not made the HOF. I think he could definitely use a few more high quality seasons (he's doing well right now), but I predict as of now he will be a deserving HOFer. He has 4 seasons OPS+ over 160, career 141 right now, and people forget that he's also a tremendous fielder-IMO one of the best at 1B all time.

[dgarza]

Who cares if a guy led his league in something? Leading the league is not the whole story by any means, but it is part of the "equation".
In Helton's case, he is not so dependent on the "ink" type validations (although his Gray Ink numbers do look good in "rate" perspective... 141 in 13 seasons)

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

The Hall of Fame would probably also like to have a token Colorado Rockie in the hall as well. So that may help a bit too.

I agree. Helton is the most famous guy ever to play for the Rockies, and he'll probably spend his whole career there. He will likely get a small bonus from the BBWAA for being the "face of the franchise" like George Brett is in Kansas City or Tony Gwynn is in San Diego.

[NJRob65]

Assuming Walker is still hanging around the ballot, I wonder how the BBWAA's treatment of Helton would affect that? Minor boost, I assume, if Helton makes it in.

I think Larry Walker has a better shot at being elected by the B.B.W.A.A. than Helton does.

Walker will be on the HOF ballot for at least five years,and probably a minimum seven or eight years at least, before Helton is eligible. Walker will probably influence Helton's chances more than the reverse.

[NJRob65]

Just like to reiterate what a few others have pointed out. That .427 OBP (12th all time) is pretty bad to the bone. His OPS at .998 is 10th all time as well.


That's not adjusted for park effects.

[NJRob65]

I agree. Helton is the most famous guy ever to play for the Rockies, and he'll probably spend his whole career there. He will likely get a small bonus from the BBWAA for being the "face of the franchise" like George Brett is in Kansas City or Tony Gwynn is in San Diego.

The fact that he's the most famous and best player in Colorado Rockies history is debatable. Larry Walker was well known and did win an MVP, while Helton has yet to accomplish this. Helton has played his entire career in Colorado, but that's a double edged sword. Don Mattingly spent his entire career in New York and he's not a serious candidate and I doubt Helton will be either. He's also unlikely to reach the "automatic" or "magic" numbers necessary to insure induction into the HoF. It's unlikely he'll reach 400 career homers in an era when more than a few of his contemporaries hit 500 or more career homers, and he's spent his entire career, so far, in Colorado and playing first base.

George Brett is one of the top 5 third basemen in major league history. Tony Gwynn is one of the top 10 right fielders in major league history. Todd Helton is not in the same class as they are, he's certainly not one of the top 10 first basemen in major league history.

[dgarza]

He will likely get a small bonus from the BBWAA for being the "face of the franchise" like George Brett is in Kansas City or Tony Gwynn is in San Diego.What is this "face of the franchise" bonus you are talking about regarding Brett and Gwynn? I never heard that that ever even mattered in their cases.

[Blackout]

why the heck not

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

What is this "face of the franchise" bonus you are talking about regarding Brett and Gwynn? I never heard that that ever even mattered in their cases.

Neither Brett nor Gwynn needed any bonus points to get into the HOF, but I do think it helps a player's case to be associated with only one team and be the first player everyone thinks of when they think of that team.

[dgarza]

Neither Brett nor Gwynn needed any bonus points to get into the HOF, but I do think it helps a player's case to be associated with only one team and be the first player everyone thinks of when they think of that team.
It may help with some lesser candidates who played for teams beginning in the expansion era (1960s+) who happen to be that team's 1st HOF-level star. But it's kind of late for Barry Larkin to be seen as "face of the franchise".

Still, now days playing for 1 team only helps a player "look" stable and consistent and "wanted", but I think days of "face of the franchise" are over for most players. That role has generally already been filled by someone form the past.

[OleMissCub]

The fact that he's the most famous and best player in Colorado Rockies history is debatable. Larry Walker was well known and did win an MVP, while Helton has yet to accomplish this.

I live right across the street from Coors Field and so I'm pretty ingrained with Rockies stuff all day and every day (too bad I'm not a fan), and I'd have to say that among Rox fans, it's Helton. They still love Larry Walker, but Helton is their man. Alot of it has to do with the fact that Helton is homegrown. They've got to watch him grow up, so to speak.

As far as Rockies fans go, I'd rank the players popularity as:

1. Helton
2. Walker
3. Castilla
4. Holliday

[OleMissCub]

It may help with some lesser candidates who played for teams beginning in the expansion era (1960s+) who happen to be that team's 1st HOF-level star. But it's kind of late for Barry Larkin to be seen as "face of the franchise".

Still, now days playing for 1 team only helps a player "look" stable and consistent and "wanted", but I think days of "face of the franchise" are over for most players. That role has generally already been filled by someone form the past.

Not sure if he needs the help, but it's definitely a point in favor of Biggio.

lol on the Larkin thing. Ya, he's about 140 years too late.

[OleMissCub]

They are throwing lots of Helton stats out in the local papers lately and here is one that is fun.

Only 5 players in history have a .325 average, 500+ doubles, 300+ HR, and 2000+ hits:

Babe Ruth
Lou Gehrig
Stan Musial
Ted Williams
Todd Helton

[538280]

Leading the league is not the whole story by any means, but it is part of the "equation".
In Helton's case, he is not so dependent on the "ink" type validations (although his Gray Ink numbers do look good in "rate" perspective... 141 in 13 seasons)

I don't think it should be part of the "equation". A guy could lead his league in nothing or in many categories, it really doesn't mean anything to me. Of course the guy with more league leads is more likely to be a deserving HOFer, but a player's relative stats compared to league averages are truly what determines his value and his merit, how many times he led the league in various categories really doesn't enter into his value or merit, IMO. As I said a guy could have a better relative BA one year yet not league the lead the league with a worse relative figure. Black Ink and Gray Ink are even worse than just making a summary of league leads in your head because of the completely arbitrary weights they give different categories.

[dgarza]

I don't think it should be part of the "equation". A guy could lead his league in nothing or in many categories, it really doesn't mean anything to me.
No, to you it doesn't matter, but that doesn't mean it doesn't matter generally to the "equation".


Of course the guy with more league leads is more likely to be a deserving HOFer,
Yes, because baseball and the HOF have various audiences, which is valid.
Leads also come into play more so for borderline HOF candidates.
But like you said "guy with more league leads is more likely to be a deserving HOFer," which is correct, it's just about what a player's likelihood is, not a definite line in the sand. Just because others don't get that doesn't mean Inks are meaningless.


but a player's relative stats compared to league averages are truly what determines his value and his merit, how many times he led the league in various categories really doesn't enter into his value or merit, IMO.
True, but we must remember that the "value" audience is just one audience in the "equation".


Black Ink and Gray Ink are even worse than just making a summary of league leads in your head because of the completely arbitrary weights they give different categories.Yes, Inks are only OK for general measures, and they are not to be taken as a tools for measurements of accuracy. They were not created to be accurate on "value," were they? (Even though some misunderstand how to use them) ?

[Jsquared83]

Helton's rate stats are top notch and yes injuries have derailed him in recent years. But any generic 320 HR, 1200 RBI, 2000 Hit first baseman whos 35 would be a borderline candidate. Heck, Jim Thome and his almost 560 HRs still have some doubters on this board. Helton's ticket is 2 more years like '09 in Colorado and then a short stint in the AL as a DH to pad his numbers, maybe reach 400 HR, 1500 RBI, 2500 Hits.

[NJRob65]

Neither Brett nor Gwynn needed any bonus points to get into the HOF, but I do think it helps a player's case to be associated with only one team and be the first player everyone thinks of when they think of that team.


That's highly doubtful. It didn't help Dave Concepcion, Lou Whitaker, Don Mattingly, or Alan Trammell. I doubt that it will help Barry Larkin much, or Edgar Martinez, nor will it help Bernie Williams. Although recent inductee Jim Rice did play his entire career in Boston's Fenway Park, which aided him greatly, it still took him 15 years to be voted in by the writers. Fellow inductee Rickey Henderson, although rightly associated with the Oakland A's(Athletics), did play with nine teams in his career and played 1704 games with Oakland and 1477 games with other teams. Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven the two leading returning HoF candidates played with multiple teams, 4 and 5, respectively. Dawson appeared in 1443 games with the Montreal Expos and 1184 with 3 other teams. Blyleven pitched in 348 games out of a career total of 692, in two stints with the Minnesota Twins.

George Brett and Tony Gwynn all accumulated more than 3000 career hits, while playing their entire careers for one team, as did Robin Yount and Cal Ripken Jr. Craig Biggio also acheived that goal. Mike Schmidt hit 548 career home runs, while playing his entire career with the Philaldelphia Phillies. Todd Helton will not reach 3000 career hits or 500 career homers. On a side note, Paul Mlitor sent the majority of his career with the Milwaukee Brewers, 15 years but spent 3 seasons with Toronto and 3 with Minnesota. He finished his career with 3319 career hits and was inducted into the Baseball Hall of fame in his first year of eligibility.

[538280]

No, to you it doesn't matter, but that doesn't mean it doesn't matter generally to the "equation".

Who does it matter to? Maybe some people look at it but IMO erroneously. I doubt the real HOF voters reference it much. I don't think on its logical merits it should matter to anyone. Read this:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=647417&postcount=1


Yes, because baseball and the HOF have various audiences, which is valid.
Leads also come into play more so for borderline HOF candidates.
But like you said "guy with more league leads is more likely to be a deserving HOFer," which is correct, it's just about what a player's likelihood is, not a definite line in the sand. Just because others don't get that doesn't mean Inks are meaningless.

But why should you look at Ink when there are so many other better ways of looking at the issue. What Ink Tests are is essentially an attempt to normalize for league averages, put a player in the context of his time. However the league averages are known, we know how a player compares to the averages of his time, and we know the tendencies of his parks. Knowing this why is there any use for ink tests? It's an extremely informal methology, and the formal methology is out in the open for everyone.


True, but we must remember that the "value" audience is just one audience in the "equation".

This isn't about what most people will look at when determining a HOFer. It's about what they should look at. I'm not going to claim that I'm right about everything, but just because a good amount of other people look at something doesn't mean it's valid to me. I don't think ink tests have much logical merit in evaluating players' HOF worthiness, that's all that matters to me in whether I'm going to use them or accept any conclusions drawn from them.


Yes, Inks are only OK for general measures, and they are not to be taken as a tools for measurements of accuracy. They were not created to be accurate on "value," were they? (Even though some misunderstand how to use them) ?

They were created by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory as a measure to determine how a player stacks up in HOF worthiness. I don't think they are valid for that purpose, in fact I think almost all of the measures James created for that book aren't really valid.

[Matthew C.]

They were created by Bill James in his book The Politics of Glory as a measure to determine how a player stacks up in HOF worthiness. I don't think they are valid for that purpose, in fact I think almost all of the measures James created for that book aren't really valid.

Right, not only were the gray/balck ink and HOFM and HOFS created to gauge the likelihood of election (never to indicate deservedness - straight from James' mouth himself), they don't even do a very good job at it. How do we know? Look at all of the guys who James has as "likely" who aren't in and those who he has as "unlikely" that are in. If the systems were accurate, there would be more lining up of what is though to be likely and what is.

[nerfan]

Right, not only were the gray/balck ink and HOFM and HOFS created to gauge the likelihood of election (never to indicate deservedness - straight from James' mouth himself), they don't even do a very good job at it. How do we know? Look at all of the guys who James has as "likely" who aren't in and those who he has as "unlikely" that are in. If the systems were accurate, there would be more lining up of what is though to be likely and what is.

The randomness of the BBWAA can surprise even the most knowledgeable of folks. I mean, Jim Rice but not Ron Santo? They've even got like the same numbers, despite the fact that Santo played in the '60's and Rice played in the '70's, and Santo's a 3rd baseman, and Rice is a left fielder.

[Matthew C.]

The randomness of the BBWAA can surprise even the most knowledgeable of folks. I mean, Jim Rice but not Ron Santo? They've even got like the same numbers, despite the fact that Santo played in the '60's and Rice played in the '70's, and Santo's a 3rd baseman, and Rice is a left fielder.

Well, there are some voting patterns, but it is subjective enough that it makes turning election probablity into a formula a difficult task, to say the least. One that can only be largely innefective, as we see from the above gauges.

[dgarza]

Right, not only were the gray/balck ink and HOFM and HOFS created to gauge the likelihood of election (never to indicate deservedness - straight from James' mouth himself), they don't even do a very good job at it. How do we know? Look at all of the guys who James has as "likely" who aren't in and those who he has as "unlikely" that are in. If the systems were accurate, there would be more lining up of what is though to be likely and what is.I will step up here and remind people that "likelihood" measures are not the same as "accuracy" measures. Inks are only meant to gauge "likelihood" (just as we've all been proclaiming). But isn't likelihood only 51% or better? Why are we still trying to define "likelihood" more like 95% accuracy?

I think those who use Ink numbers as hard lines-in-the-sand are misunderstanding the "likelihood" they are measuring as much as Ink deriders are misunderstanding the "likelihood" they are attempting to measure.

[538280]

Right, not only were the gray/balck ink and HOFM and HOFS created to gauge the likelihood of election (never to indicate deservedness

That's frequently said about those measures, but really James did not create those measures with the intent to gauge HOF likelihood, except the HOF Monitor which definitely did have that intent. This is from page 68 of my copy of James' book:

"The (HOF) monitor is an amoral system; it is concerned with what did happen in the voting, not what should, and thus it gives various accomplishments a somewhat illogical weight, to make players' records match up with the voting. Getting 200 hits in a season, for some reason, has always impressed HOF voters (or at least the players who have done that have always done well in HOF voting), so that gets a comparatively heavy weight. Drving in 100 runs or scoring 100 runs appears to mean less, so it gets less weight.

The Standards List (HOF Standards) doesn't make any attempt to predict the voting; it just evaluates the players' records in a kind of common sense way, and then centers the results at 50 percent."

James created the Ink Tests, in his own words, "as a counterpoint to the Standards List", which he directly states was NOT created to model the HOF voting. They were designed to measure deservedness, not likelihood, and their creator directly stated that when explaining their creation. IMO, James' methods do a horrible job of determining HOF worthiness for reasons already stated. HOF Standards is not any better than Ink Tests, totally arbitrary cutoffs, based only on counting stats, takes no consideration of fielding ability, has no era adjustment. I think for that book James just thought that he needed to come up with some new statistical measures to sell every book so he just threw some things together so he could have a few. I think they've been harmful to perceptions of players in all the years hence.

[Matthew C.]

That's frequently said about those measures, but really James did not create those measures with the intent to gauge HOF likelihood, except the HOF Monitor which definitely did have that intent. This is from page 68 of my copy of James' book:

"The (HOF) monitor is an amoral system; it is concerned with what did happen in the voting, not what should, and thus it gives various accomplishments a somewhat illogical weight, to make players' records match up with the voting. Getting 200 hits in a season, for some reason, has always impressed HOF voters (or at least the players who have done that have always done well in HOF voting), so that gets a comparatively heavy weight. Drving in 100 runs or scoring 100 runs appears to mean less, so it gets less weight.

The Standards List (HOF Standards) doesn't make any attempt to predict the voting; it just evaluates the players' records in a kind of common sense way, and then centers the results at 50 percent."

James created the Ink Tests, in his own words, "as a counterpoint to the Standards List", which he directly states was NOT created to model the HOF voting. They were designed to measure deservedness, not likelihood, and their creator directly stated that when explaining their creation. IMO, James' methods do a horrible job of determining HOF worthiness for reasons already stated. HOF Standards is not any better than Ink Tests, totally arbitrary cutoffs, based only on counting stats, takes no consideration of fielding ability, has no era adjustment. I think for that book James just thought that he needed to come up with some new statistical measures to sell every book so he just threw some things together so he could have a few. I think they've been harmful to perceptions of players in all the years hence.

Yes, I stand corrected.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I don't think it should be part of the "equation". A guy could lead his league in nothing or in many categories, it really doesn't mean anything to me. Of course the guy with more league leads is more likely to be a deserving HOFer, but a player's relative stats compared to league averages are truly what determines his value and his merit, how many times he led the league in various categories really doesn't enter into his value or merit, IMO. As I said a guy could have a better relative BA one year yet not league the lead the league with a worse relative figure. Black Ink and Gray Ink are even worse than just making a summary of league leads in your head because of the completely arbitrary weights they give different categories.

I've told you this before Chris but I guess you forgot. The weights are not arbitary. He gives great weight to those stats that HoF voters give weight to. HoF voters like things like 200 hit seasons, 100 RBI seasons, batting titles, etc. James isn't saying he agrees with this or that it makes logical sense. But he tried to come up with a system that mirrors the historical HoF voting. To most HoF voters batting championships are FAR more important to leading the league in OBP. That is reality. If you dislike that or disagree with that, that is irrelevant to what James was trying to do.

[538280]

I've told you this before Chris but I guess you forgot. The weights are not arbitary. He gives great weight to those stats that HoF voters give weight to. HoF voters like things like 200 hit seasons, 100 RBI seasons, batting titles, etc. James isn't saying he agrees with this or that it makes logical sense. But he tried to come up with a system that mirrors the historical HoF voting. To most HoF voters batting championships are FAR more important to leading the league in OBP. That is reality. If you dislike that or disagree with that, that is irrelevant to what James was trying to do.

He was trying to do that with the HOF Monitor but not with any of the other measures. Look at the quote from his book.

[four tool]

[QUOTE=538280;1574811]Who does it matter to? Maybe some people look at it but IMO erroneously. I doubt the real HOF voters reference it much. I don't think on its logical merits it should matter to anyone. Read this:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showpost.php?p=647417&postcount=1



The oriignal idea of the ink was to look at playwers already in the hall, find out how much ink each recieved and then analyse the data. BTW, HoF voters certainly look at whether or not a player led the league in various categories, they always have--and led league=black ink.
And of course the article you cited is something the voters use as part of their evaluation I'm sure--NOT.

[Paul Wendt]

He was trying to do that with the HOF Monitor but not with any of the other measures. Look at the quote from his book.

but also 538280, on black and grey ink:

The method was created, of course, by Bill James, so you may wonder why James chose to make the weightings with such sabermetric ignorance. The simple reason is that when making up these methods James was trying to get more of a sense of the the HOF voters' behavior, which we all know is infamously clueless and centered almost entirely on the triple crown numbers.