View Poll Results: Will Ryan Braun make the HOF?

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  • Yes, his numbers will be deserving of a place in the HOF

    17 27.87%
  • No, his numbers will not merit HOF induction

    44 72.13%
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Thread: Ryan Braun

  1. #1
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    Ryan Braun

    He's 26 and has played 4 seasons. I know it's very early on his career but I'd like to get some thoughts on his career so far and his future HOF chances.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    He's 26 and has played 4 seasons. I know it's very early on his career but I'd like to get some thoughts on his career so far and his future HOF chances.
    And so it begins...

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    He's 26 and has played 4 seasons. I know it's very early on his career but I'd like to get some thoughts on his career so far and his future HOF chances.
    My thoughts: It's impossible to tell because he's played 4 seasons.

  4. #4
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    Ryan Braun's career projections

    1868 games
    7399 at-bats
    1248 runs
    2222 hits
    457 doubles
    44 triples
    440 home runs
    1395 RBI
    153 stolen bases
    46 caught stealing
    664 walks
    1511 strikeouts
    4089 total bases
    185 GDP
    93 HBP
    0 SH
    56 SF
    32 IBB
    .300 AVG
    .363 OBP
    .553 SLG

    Ryan Braun's 2011 projections

    108 games
    444 at-bats
    81 runs
    138 hits
    27 doubles
    4 triples
    29 home runs
    89 RBI
    12 stolen bases
    3 caught stealing
    42 walks
    92 strikeouts
    262 total bases
    11 GDP
    6 HBP
    0 SH
    4 SF
    2 IBB
    .311 AVG
    .375 OBP
    .590 SLG
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  5. #5
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    It is way too early to tell. It is impossible to say one way or the other. One must err to "no" however.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cowtipper View Post
    It is way too early to tell. It is impossible to say one way or the other. One must err to "no" however.
    2500+ PA's, 140 OPS+, through age 26 already puts him in pretty elite company.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  7. #7
    Yet another mediocre player who has barely smelled the MLB who you think is HOF worthy? Your personal HOF must include 1000s of players.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    2500+ PA's, 140 OPS+, through age 26 already puts him in pretty elite company.
    That means nothing. Really. There is absolutely no telling what he is going to be doing at ages 29, 32, 35.

    John Mayberry of all people had 2500+ plate appearances and an OPS+ through age 26. So did Darryl Strawberry, Don Mattingly, Bobby Murcer, Charlie Keller, Oyster Burns, Denny Lyons and Mike Tiernan...all good players, but not Hall of Famers.
    Last edited by Cowtipper; 10-24-2010 at 09:14 PM.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    Yet another mediocre player who has barely smelled the MLB who you think is HOF worthy? Your personal HOF must include 1000s of players.
    140 OPS+, .687 OW% is now Mediocre?
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    140 OPS+, .687 OW% is now Mediocre?
    4 seasons in MLB=ridiculous to even speculate about. How many seasons does a player have to be in MLB to be a HOFer for you, since you think he is a HOFer after 4 seasons? A player with 4 seasons in the MLB is a HOFer to you, but Ichiro, who has had 10 straight seasons with 200 hits, something no one has ever done before is not? I'm just trying to figure out whether or not you are actually serious here.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    4 seasons in MLB=ridiculous to even speculate about. How many seasons does a player have to be in MLB to be a HOFer for you, since you think he is a HOFer after 4 seasons? A player with 4 seasons in the MLB is a HOFer to you, but Ichiro, who has had 10 straight seasons with 200 hits, something no one has ever done before is not? I'm just trying to figure out whether or not you are actually serious here.
    How about you stop saying things that aren't true? He ISN'T in my personal hall of fame NOR do I think after 4 seasons that he is deserving of the HOF at this point in time. NO player is ever HOF worthy after only 4 seasons no matter how good those seasons are. You could take the best 4 seasons in baseball history put them back to back to back to back to start a career and that player would NOT be HOF worthy after their 4th season. Do I make myself clear?

    That said Ryan Braun is most definately on a HOF pace and I believe all signs point to him remaining on a HOF pace.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    How about you stop saying things that aren't true? He ISN'T in my personal hall of fame NOR do I think after 4 seasons that he is deserving of the HOF at this point in time. NO player is ever HOF worthy after only 4 seasons no matter how good those seasons are. You could take the best 4 seasons in baseball history put them back to back to back to back to start a career and that player would NOT be HOF worthy after their 4th season. Do I make myself clear?

    That said Ryan Braun is most definately on a HOF pace and I believe all signs point to him remaining on a HOF pace.
    Yes, his numbers will be deserving of a place in the HOF.
    Maybe you want to reword that since you are saying that he will be a HOFer. Not that he is on a HOF pace. The two are not mutually inclusive.

  13. #13
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    Braun's age 26 comps are interesting. I really don't think any of them are really all that similar to him, but the list does look promising. It does, however, show how tricky it can be to say a guy is 'on pace' to make the hall at such a young age. There are HOFers (Hafey, Ramirez, B. Williams, Kiner) mixed in with guys who flamed out early (Green, Mondesi, Heath, Keller). Braun is consistent, which is mostly a good thing, but which also means he really hasn't shown any improvement since his rookie season. I mean 25 100 .300 every year is nice and all, but nothing special for a corner outfielder; especially when guy like Bernie Williams was doing it while playing gold glove center. I think he needs to improve, or else keep up this level for a very long time... look at Gary Sheffield, who hit at the same level forever, and still who many people view as a borderline candidate. His numbers and consistency kind of remind me of a poor man's Vlad Guerrero; another guy who has kept up the level for a long time and has barely crept over the HOF border to some.
    Last edited by willshad; 10-24-2010 at 11:44 PM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by willshad View Post
    Braun's age 26 comps are interesting. I really don't think any of them are really all that similar to him, but the list does look promising. It does, however, show how tricky it can be to say a guy is 'on pace' to make the hall at such a young age. There are HOFers (Hafey, Ramirez, B. Williams, Kiner) mixed in with guys who flamed out early (Green, Mondesi, Heath, Keller). Braun is consistent, which is mostly a good thing, but which also means he really hasn't shown any improvement since his rookie season. I mean 25 100 .300 every year is nice and all, but nothing special for a corner outfielder; especially when guy like Bernie Williams was doing it while playing gold glove center. I think he needs to improve, or else keep up this level for a very long time... look at Gary Sheffield, who hit at the same level forever, and still who many people view as a borderline candidate. His numbers and consistency kind of remind me of a poor man's Vlad Guerrero; another guy who has kept up the level for a long time and has barely crept over the HOF border to some.
    I think willshad pretty much hit the nail on the head.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  15. #15
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    Call back in 6-7 years and we might be able to take a stab at this.
    Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by KCGHOST View Post
    Call back in 6-7 years and we might be able to take a stab at this.
    Barring injury by that time it will be a no-brainer.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Barring injury and this same level of production by that time it will be a no-brainer.
    This has been fixed.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Harris View Post
    This has been fixed.
    Do you know what a players "prime" is? Usually players are MORE productive between the ages of 27-32 than what they are from 23-26. So if Braun follows the normal trend his numbers will increase and not decrease. Considering that Braun only needs to maintain his current numbers for the next 6 seasons during his prime. I'd say he stands an excellent chance at making the HOF.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Do you know what a players "prime" is? Usually players are MORE productive between the ages of 27-32 than what they are from 23-26. So if Braun follows the normal trend his numbers will increase and not decrease. Considering that Braun only needs to maintain his current numbers for the next 6 seasons during his prime. I'd say he stands an excellent chance at making the HOF.
    "Normal" according to what? The 38 players out of 16,440+, or 0.002% of the players that have played in the MLB that you based your Projection model on where you have a player following a perfect bell curve and retiring at age 43?

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    "Normal" according to what? The 38 players out of 16,440+, or 0.002% of the players that have played in the MLB that you based your Projection model on where you have a player following a perfect bell curve and retiring at age 43?
    Everybody knows that a players prime is late 20's to early 30's. My research just backed that up. The odds of Ryan Braun playing to age 43 are only 5.3%

    Age 36: 97.4%
    Age 37: 81.6%
    Age 38: 73.7%
    Age 39: 63.2%
    Age 40: 57.9%
    Age 41: 34.2%
    Age 42: 23.7%
    Age 43: 5.3%
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

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