View Poll Results: Will Ryan Braun make the HOF?

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  • Yes, his numbers will be deserving of a place in the HOF

    16 28.57%
  • No, his numbers will not merit HOF induction

    40 71.43%
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Thread: Ryan Braun

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    The problem is that he is not developing as a hitter.
    This is central to the issue; to project Braun's career one needs to do more than subject him to a standard model and plug in the numbers. Who is he? How is he developing? Etc.

    One significant trend is seen in his isolated power. It has decreased every year, even adjusted for the league's decrease:
    RB League=Iso Above Lg
    .310 .163 = .147
    .268 .158 = .110
    .231 .155 = .076
    .197 .149 = .048

    Another trend is his speed score took a dip in 2010: career low in 3B (1), SB (14); career high in GDP (17); fielding range down from 2009.

    He's young enough to turn it up and have a HOF career. Or it's just as likely that 2009 will end up having been his career year.
    Eradicate, wipe out and abolish redundancy.

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  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwiggins View Post
    Which is the crux of the issue. We know specifics about Braun as a player, now that he's 4 years into his career, that make generalized assumptions like "players usually peak between the ages 27-31" to be less than useful for making predictions.
    Actually, the challenge in making more accurate predictions is in incorporating what the knowledge we have of the player into fine-tuning the predictions. From what I've seen, the prediction system we're talking about has some reasonable scaffolding to build on, but doesn't go much further, such as addressing existing trends of the player, the context in which he plays, or even his defensive position. IMHO, the failure to build in such a way on that scaffolding causes serious problems in at least some cases, and diminishes the value of what is there.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    To be fair, if I'm understanding Sockeye's method correctly, he's using a Projection model based on "outstanding" players; the guys he's interested in knowing where current outstanding players will end up like. He's saying something like, "since Braun is, likewise, an outstanding player, his odds of playing to age 43 are 5.3%."
    That is precisely what I am saying. Great players play longer than average or below average players.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    Perhaps what could be done to improve the method is, rather than a group of 38 hand-picked stars, use the entire group of 20th century players in the BBFHOF, or something like that.
    That's an interesting idea. I'm guessing that the numbers would be pretty similar though to the sample group that was used. The quality of players as a whole would be roughly the same.

    EDIT: Of course, when you don't adjust for position, era and things like that, it's really nothing more than his "Favorite Toy". [/QUOTE]
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    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  4. #29
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    Ryan Braun

    Career projections

    Games 1981
    At-Bats 7718
    Runs 1316
    Hits 2351
    Doubles 484
    Triples 48
    Home Runs 451
    RBI's 1455
    Stolen Bases 197
    Caught Stealing 52
    Walks 712
    Strikeouts 1514
    Total Bases 4286
    Sacrifice Hits 0
    Sacrifice Flies 54
    Intentional Walks 32
    Hit By Pitch 90
    Grounded into Double Play 180
    AVG .305
    OBP .368
    SLG .555
    Last edited by Sockeye; 10-03-2011 at 03:37 PM.
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  5. #30
    You already have a thread for him:

    http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...66-Ryan-Braun&
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  6. #31
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    Why do I not remember posting that it was only a year ago and why didn't it show up when I did an advanced search for Braun?
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  7. #32
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    sockeye:

    I can't speak to your memory , but I will say in my experience the search function for this site has left a lot to be desired for quite some time now.

    Anyway, the threads will be merged.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  8. #33
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    I learned if I use Google I can find threads that don't pop up in with the BBF search function. Go figure.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  9. #34
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    He's halfway there.
    "Tactics were resorted to, unworthy of fair, manly players" - Brooklyn Eagle, June 12,1890

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Ryan Braun's career projections

    1868 games 729
    7399 at-bats 2879
    1248 runs 506
    2222 hits 898
    457 doubles 187
    44 triples 26
    440 home runs 161
    1395 RBI 591
    153 stolen bases 96
    46 caught stealing 24
    664 walks 242
    1511 strikeouts 560
    4089 total bases 1620
    185 GDP 58
    93 HBP 37
    0 SH 0
    56 SF 18
    32 IBB 9
    .300 AVG .312
    .363 OBP .371
    .553 SLG .563

    Ryan Braun's 2011 projections

    108 games 150
    444 at-bats 563
    81 runs 109
    138 hits 187
    27 doubles 38
    4 triples 6
    29 home runs 33
    89 RBI 111
    12 stolen bases 33
    3 caught stealing 6
    42 walks 58
    92 strikeouts 93
    262 total bases 336
    11 GDP 9
    6 HBP 5
    0 SH 0
    4 SF 3
    2 IBB 2
    .311 AVG .332
    .375 OBP .397
    .590 SLG .597
    The seasonal projections were a little low. His production was up .332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597, 166 OPS+ were all well above his career averages. Increased walk ratio and decreased strikeouts shows growth as a hitter and is normal for a player's age 27 season. 33 stolen bases and excellent 84.6% success ratio was an unexpected but pleasant surprise. This speaks to his well rounded game and should go along way to convincing doubters as to his longevity potential.
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  11. #36
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    Through age 27

    PLAYER.............R...H..2B..3B..HR..RBI..SB..CS. .BB..SO..BA..OBP..SLG..OPS..OPS+..TB..WAR

    Zack Wheat......412 961 166 69 36 413 114 34 245 328 .292 .346 .417 .764 121 1373 16.8
    Billy Williams....475 928 156 35 141 487 42 23 313 399 .297 .361 .504 .865 134 1577 19.7
    Max Carey......616 1081 156 74 27 311 316 53 395 432 .271 .343 .368 .711 109 1466 20.3
    Ryan Braun......506 898 187 26 161 531 96 24 242 560 .312 .371 .563 .933 145 1620 22.1
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    He's halfway there.
    In the sense that he needs ten years to become eligible?

    I don't think his play, as good as it is, puts him at the halfway point. I think very few players are good enough to warrant induction with ten or fewer seasons. I'm just checking a few initial candidates, and it looks like Jimmie Foxx was pretty close. Ty Cobb probably deserved induction after just seven or eight seasons. Babe Ruth was probably deserving after eight seasons if you count both pitching and batting. Willie Mays was probably a Hall of Famer after seven or eight seasons, maybe less if you give him credit for his Army year. Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, and Rogers Hornsby are also in the ten seasons or less crowd. I'm sure there are more: Musial, Aaron, and Lajoie come to mind. This doesn't include pitchers either. However, I think it's safe to say that Braun is not in this group of players.

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Red View Post
    In the sense that he needs ten years to become eligible?
    In the sense that if his production over his second five years is equal to his first five, he's got a shot.
    "Tactics were resorted to, unworthy of fair, manly players" - Brooklyn Eagle, June 12,1890

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    In the sense that if his production over his second five years is equal to his first five, he's got a shot.
    Generally speaking players are more productive from ages 28-32 than they are from 23-27. This isn't always the case but that is the normal trend for players of Braun's caliber.
    Even than I can't see Braun being deserving after only 10 years. Pujols yes, Braun no. Give Braun 13 seasons at or around his current pace and I'd put him in.
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  15. #40
    this season was a step into the right direction.

    he needs to walk more though. he walks like ichiro but he is a power hitter. To me a power hitter must walk way more than 70 times a year even if prince fielder hits behind him. 58 walks is pathetic for a guy that lead the league in slugging.
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and cant run, most of the time hes clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. Dusty Baker.

  16. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    this season was a step into the right direction.

    he needs to walk more though. he walks like ichiro but he is a power hitter. To me a power hitter must walk way more than 70 times a year even if prince fielder hits behind him. 58 walks is pathetic for a guy that lead the league in slugging.
    This is kind of bizarre logic. You want your power hitters who lead the league in slugging to walk more? Shouldn't you want them to swing the bat more? If he can bat .330 and slug .600 while swinging away, why should he stop doing so?

    The better a hitter is, then the better it is for the other team if he walks, rather than swings away. This is why the best hitters are often pitched around and intentionally walked.

    As far as being halfway to the hall of fame....no. He needs to continue at his 2011 level, or have a good decline after age 32. If we give him 5 years exactly like his first 5, that puts him at age 32, with around 320 home runs, 1060 RBI, and a 145 OPS+. That is very similar to what guys like Mcgriff, Delgado, Belle, and Berkman were at the same age. None of them are likely to make the hall of fame.
    Last edited by willshad; 10-08-2011 at 02:19 AM.

  17. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by willshad View Post
    This is kind of bizarre logic. You want your power hitters who lead the league in slugging to walk more? Shouldn't you want them to swing the bat more? If he can bat .330 and slug .600 while swinging away, why should he stop doing so?

    The better a hitter is, then the better it is for the other team if he walks, rather than swings away. This is why the best hitters are often pitched around and intentionally walked.

    As far as being halfway to the hall of fame....no. He needs to continue at his 2011 level, or have a good decline after age 32. If we give him 5 years exactly like his first 5, that puts him at age 32, with around 320 home runs, 1060 RBI, and a 145 OPS+. That is very similar to what guys like Mcgriff, Delgado, Belle, and Berkman were at the same age. None of them are likely to make the hall of fame.
    Normal progression indicates his numbers should improve during his age 28-32 seasons. Not enough to make him deserving of HOF by age 32 but his numbers should more than double over his next 5 seasons with an even higher OPS+. McGriff and Delgado are both deserving and Berkman likely will be in 2 years. Braun is on pace to be better than any of them.
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  18. #43
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    Well won't this MVP award look good on his HOF resume!
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

  19. #44
    Yeah, Zoilo Versailles' MVP got him in on the first ballot!
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  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Well won't this MVP award look good on his HOF resume!
    A classic age-27 season, never to be repeated.

    By the time Braun is on the HOF ballot, MVP awards will matter even less than they do now. Especially this kind of award, where he was not his league's best player.
    Eradicate, wipe out and abolish redundancy.

    Free El Duque!(and Mark Mulder) -- discover how the HOF rules are cheating this renowned member of Torre's Yankees dynasty and ask the HOF to include him on the ballot for the next BBWAA election.

  21. #46
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    --I thinks its a bit premature to call this a career year. It may well turn out that way, but its very possible he will have several years at the same level or even a better one before he starts to decline. Also, while I agree he was not the league's best player he wasn't far off and his selection is hardly going to be remembered as one of the really bad choices. Actually Id say the best player this year, Matt Kemp, is the guy who had a career year he is unlikely to repeat.

  22. #47
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    Right, Mark, I can't predict the future. I'm just stating the most likely scenario.

    As for the MVP, he may have been the league's 2nd best player. But add his name to the list "Players that didn't deserve their MVP award"; that's how it will be remembered.
    Eradicate, wipe out and abolish redundancy.

    Free El Duque!(and Mark Mulder) -- discover how the HOF rules are cheating this renowned member of Torre's Yankees dynasty and ask the HOF to include him on the ballot for the next BBWAA election.

  23. #48
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    I see Braun as a HOFer, barring an unforseen injury, and, to be honest, I can't understand the skepticism. Braun's 2011 season, in which he won the NL MVP, was a season not out of context with the rest of his career. Braun posted his best season in 2011, and it was his best by a significant amount, but it was not a fluke season by any means. Indeed, given Braun's age in 2011 (27), it is well within what one would project for Braun; he's taken his career to a new level that is reasonable for him to approach again and again over the next 4-5 years.

    Braun is doing what HOFers who play LF do. He's won awards (2007 NL ROY, 2011 NL MVP). He's been on the All-Star team the last 4 years in a row. His BA is .312, and he averages over 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs per year, so he's not offensively overmatched for his position. He's the best player on a team that makes the postseason. These are the sort of things HOF left fielders do, and Braun does them. His OWP this year was .799; that's outstanding. His OWP for his career is .712, and that's HOF norm for a player at the left end of the defensive spectrum.

    I also can't agree that Braun "didn't deserve the MVP award" in 2011. A case can be made for Matt Kemp being more deserving if you factor in his Gold Glove for CF, but Braun was the superior offensive player to Kemp; indeed, he posted the best offensive season of any player in the NL if you go by OWP. I can understand a vote for Kemp for MVP, but I can also understand not voting for Kemp in rememberance of his poor attitude in 2010 that cost the Dodgers. Braun may or may not have been the best player in the NL, but a strong case can be made that he was, and it's a matter of there being more than one deserving candidate, but only one award.
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  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    A classic age-27 season, never to be repeated.
    I agree, he'll never be 27 again. But an MVP is an MVP. Andre Dawson didn't deserve his MVP either, but I doubt he would have been elected without it.
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  25. #50
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    Through age 27 season

    Willie Stargell: 653 games, 9.8 WAR
    Chick Hafey: 690 games, 16.4 WAR
    Zack Wheat: 874 games, 16.8 WAR
    Billy Williams: 822 games, 19.7 WAR
    Max Carey: 1040 games, 20.3 WAR
    Ryan Braun: 729 games, 21.8 WAR
    Quote
    "A ballplayer has to just go out and be mean. You can't play half-heartedly. If you do, there's someone right over your shoulder that'll take your job away. If you don't do your job, what they're paying you for, why should they pay you? You just can't put in eight hours, that's what a lot of people don't realize about athletes. Very few people realize the pressure." Dave Kingman

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