View Poll Results: Will Ryan Braun make the HOF?

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  • Yes, his numbers will be deserving of a place in the HOF

    17 27.42%
  • No, his numbers will not merit HOF induction

    45 72.58%
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Thread: Ryan Braun

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Everybody knows that a players prime is late 20's to early 30's. My research just backed that up. The odds of Ryan Braun playing to age 43 are only 5.3%

    Age 36: 97.4%
    Age 37: 81.6%
    Age 38: 73.7%
    Age 39: 63.2%
    Age 40: 57.9%
    Age 41: 34.2%
    Age 42: 23.7%
    Age 43: 5.3%
    For starters, those numbers are way off from the actual percentages of players who have played to that age, and they do not even begin to adjust for things like era, etc... Your research as you are delivering it would be dismissed as logically-flawed pseudo science in any stats 1 class. What separates Bill James and the SABR crowd from what you are doing is that they are not drawing from a miniscule data set when formulating their statistical analyses. You are, and what makes it worse is that you are saying that these players will reach those numbers. Not that they have a 50/50 shot of hitting them when you post your polls and projections. I won't be commenting on this further. I offered some advice on how you can improve your system. If you choose to ignore that and continue on this riduculous path, your approach will continue to be dismissed by the majority of users here.
    Last edited by jjpm74; 10-27-2010 at 07:38 AM.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Everybody knows that a players prime is late 20's to early 30's. My research just backed that up. The odds of Ryan Braun playing to age 43 are only 5.3%

    Age 36: 97.4%
    Age 37: 81.6%
    Age 38: 73.7%
    Age 39: 63.2%
    Age 40: 57.9%
    Age 41: 34.2%
    Age 42: 23.7%
    Age 43: 5.3%
    Never mind 43...of all the 26 year olds in MLB in 2010, 23.7% will still be in MLB in 2026, when they are 42? Nearly one out of four?

    It looks implausible -- really, it's an empirical question. How many players born in 1968 and active in 1994 (so age 26) played in 2010 (age 42)?

    Matt Stairs
    Russ Springer

    That's it.

    How about players born in 1969, just in case?

    Ken Griffey Jr.
    Brad Ausmus
    Arthur Rhodes
    Mariano Rivera (who actually didn't debut until 1995, but let's say he would have been a September call-up if there weren't a strike)

    pre-1968 births still active in 2010:

    1967: Omar Vizquel, Trevor Hoffman

    1966: Tim Wakefield

    1962: Jamie Moyer

    That's 10 players over 40 still in MLB in 2010.

    There are 30 teams with 25 roster spots -- that's 750 players, before September call-ups, players bouncing up and down from the minor leagues or the disabled list, etc., so the below figure is inflated substantially.

    10/750 = 1.333 %

    How can this be reconciled with your projections?

  3. #23
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    To be fair, if I'm understanding Sockeye's method correctly, he's using a Projection model based on "outstanding" players; the guys he's interested in knowing where current outstanding players will end up like. He's saying something like, "since Braun is, likewise, an outstanding player, his odds of playing to age 43 are 5.3%." What he has not shown is why he believes Braun should be numbered among the elite group his model is based upon in the first place.

    Perhaps what could be done to improve the method is, rather than a group of 38 hand-picked stars, use the entire group of 20th century players in the BBFHOF, or something like that.

    EDIT: Of course, when you don't adjust for position, era and things like that, it's really nothing more than his "Favorite Toy".
    Last edited by Freakshow; 10-27-2010 at 09:42 AM.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Do you know what a players "prime" is? Usually players are MORE productive between the ages of 27-32 than what they are from 23-26.
    The problem is that he is not developing as a hitter. Without 80+ walks a year he's got really no room for improvement, and he shows no desire to be more patient at the plate. Basically he's a corner outfielder who's maxed out on his hitting ability unless he gets an attitude change. When I think of Braun I think of a guy with great hitting talent who has a retarded hitting approach. In fact as a hitter, I see him as being another Jim Rice. Juan Gonzalez would be another similar. Without the walk buffer to his OB% he will need to put up .330 BAs not just .300s and I have found that guys like that do not improve in their late 20s and early 30s. George Brett was similar, but he did improve, or at least compensate because he drew more walks in the middle of his career. He is a good baserunner and his speed and arm make him a decent corner outfielder. He should have been moved after 40 MLB games.
    Last edited by brett; 10-27-2010 at 09:48 AM.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    The problem is that he is not developing as a hitter. Without 80+ walks a year he's got really no room for improvement, and he shows no desire to be more patient at the plate. Basically he's a corner outfielder who's maxed out on his hitting ability unless he gets an attitude change. When I think of Braun I think of a guy with great hitting talent who has a retarded hitting approach. In fact as a hitter, I see him as being another Jim Rice. Juan Gonzalez would be another similar. Without the walk buffer to his OB% he will need to put up .330 BAs not just .300s and I have found that guys like that do not improve in their late 20s and early 30s. George Brett was similar, but he did improve, or at least compensate because he drew more walks in the middle of his career. He is a good baserunner and his speed and arm make him a decent corner outfielder. He should have been moved after 40 MLB games.
    Which is the crux of the issue. We know specifics about Braun as a player, now that he's 4 years into his career, that make generalized assumptions like "players usually peak between the ages 27-31" to be less than useful for making predictions.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    The problem is that he is not developing as a hitter.
    This is central to the issue; to project Braun's career one needs to do more than subject him to a standard model and plug in the numbers. Who is he? How is he developing? Etc.

    One significant trend is seen in his isolated power. It has decreased every year, even adjusted for the league's decrease:
    RB League=Iso Above Lg
    .310 .163 = .147
    .268 .158 = .110
    .231 .155 = .076
    .197 .149 = .048

    Another trend is his speed score took a dip in 2010: career low in 3B (1), SB (14); career high in GDP (17); fielding range down from 2009.

    He's young enough to turn it up and have a HOF career. Or it's just as likely that 2009 will end up having been his career year.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mwiggins View Post
    Which is the crux of the issue. We know specifics about Braun as a player, now that he's 4 years into his career, that make generalized assumptions like "players usually peak between the ages 27-31" to be less than useful for making predictions.
    Actually, the challenge in making more accurate predictions is in incorporating what the knowledge we have of the player into fine-tuning the predictions. From what I've seen, the prediction system we're talking about has some reasonable scaffolding to build on, but doesn't go much further, such as addressing existing trends of the player, the context in which he plays, or even his defensive position. IMHO, the failure to build in such a way on that scaffolding causes serious problems in at least some cases, and diminishes the value of what is there.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    To be fair, if I'm understanding Sockeye's method correctly, he's using a Projection model based on "outstanding" players; the guys he's interested in knowing where current outstanding players will end up like. He's saying something like, "since Braun is, likewise, an outstanding player, his odds of playing to age 43 are 5.3%."
    That is precisely what I am saying. Great players play longer than average or below average players.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    Perhaps what could be done to improve the method is, rather than a group of 38 hand-picked stars, use the entire group of 20th century players in the BBFHOF, or something like that.
    That's an interesting idea. I'm guessing that the numbers would be pretty similar though to the sample group that was used. The quality of players as a whole would be roughly the same.

    EDIT: Of course, when you don't adjust for position, era and things like that, it's really nothing more than his "Favorite Toy". [/QUOTE]
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  9. #29
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    Ryan Braun

    Career projections

    Games 1981
    At-Bats 7718
    Runs 1316
    Hits 2351
    Doubles 484
    Triples 48
    Home Runs 451
    RBI's 1455
    Stolen Bases 197
    Caught Stealing 52
    Walks 712
    Strikeouts 1514
    Total Bases 4286
    Sacrifice Hits 0
    Sacrifice Flies 54
    Intentional Walks 32
    Hit By Pitch 90
    Grounded into Double Play 180
    AVG .305
    OBP .368
    SLG .555
    Last edited by Sockeye; 10-03-2011 at 03:37 PM.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  10. #30
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    You already have a thread for him:

    http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...66-Ryan-Braun&

  11. #31
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    Why do I not remember posting that it was only a year ago and why didn't it show up when I did an advanced search for Braun?
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  12. #32
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    sockeye:

    I can't speak to your memory , but I will say in my experience the search function for this site has left a lot to be desired for quite some time now.

    Anyway, the threads will be merged.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  13. #33
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    I learned if I use Google I can find threads that don't pop up in with the BBF search function. Go figure.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  14. #34
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    He's halfway there.
    Shalom, y'all!
    What's the rumpus?

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Ryan Braun's career projections

    1868 games 729
    7399 at-bats 2879
    1248 runs 506
    2222 hits 898
    457 doubles 187
    44 triples 26
    440 home runs 161
    1395 RBI 591
    153 stolen bases 96
    46 caught stealing 24
    664 walks 242
    1511 strikeouts 560
    4089 total bases 1620
    185 GDP 58
    93 HBP 37
    0 SH 0
    56 SF 18
    32 IBB 9
    .300 AVG .312
    .363 OBP .371
    .553 SLG .563

    Ryan Braun's 2011 projections

    108 games 150
    444 at-bats 563
    81 runs 109
    138 hits 187
    27 doubles 38
    4 triples 6
    29 home runs 33
    89 RBI 111
    12 stolen bases 33
    3 caught stealing 6
    42 walks 58
    92 strikeouts 93
    262 total bases 336
    11 GDP 9
    6 HBP 5
    0 SH 0
    4 SF 3
    2 IBB 2
    .311 AVG .332
    .375 OBP .397
    .590 SLG .597
    The seasonal projections were a little low. His production was up .332 AVG, .397 OBP, .597, 166 OPS+ were all well above his career averages. Increased walk ratio and decreased strikeouts shows growth as a hitter and is normal for a player's age 27 season. 33 stolen bases and excellent 84.6% success ratio was an unexpected but pleasant surprise. This speaks to his well rounded game and should go along way to convincing doubters as to his longevity potential.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  16. #36
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    Through age 27

    PLAYER.............R...H..2B..3B..HR..RBI..SB..CS. .BB..SO..BA..OBP..SLG..OPS..OPS+..TB..WAR

    Zack Wheat......412 961 166 69 36 413 114 34 245 328 .292 .346 .417 .764 121 1373 16.8
    Billy Williams....475 928 156 35 141 487 42 23 313 399 .297 .361 .504 .865 134 1577 19.7
    Max Carey......616 1081 156 74 27 311 316 53 395 432 .271 .343 .368 .711 109 1466 20.3
    Ryan Braun......506 898 187 26 161 531 96 24 242 560 .312 .371 .563 .933 145 1620 22.1
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    He's halfway there.
    In the sense that he needs ten years to become eligible?

    I don't think his play, as good as it is, puts him at the halfway point. I think very few players are good enough to warrant induction with ten or fewer seasons. I'm just checking a few initial candidates, and it looks like Jimmie Foxx was pretty close. Ty Cobb probably deserved induction after just seven or eight seasons. Babe Ruth was probably deserving after eight seasons if you count both pitching and batting. Willie Mays was probably a Hall of Famer after seven or eight seasons, maybe less if you give him credit for his Army year. Barry Bonds, Honus Wagner, and Rogers Hornsby are also in the ten seasons or less crowd. I'm sure there are more: Musial, Aaron, and Lajoie come to mind. This doesn't include pitchers either. However, I think it's safe to say that Braun is not in this group of players.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Red View Post
    In the sense that he needs ten years to become eligible?
    In the sense that if his production over his second five years is equal to his first five, he's got a shot.
    Shalom, y'all!
    What's the rumpus?

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    In the sense that if his production over his second five years is equal to his first five, he's got a shot.
    Generally speaking players are more productive from ages 28-32 than they are from 23-27. This isn't always the case but that is the normal trend for players of Braun's caliber.
    Even than I can't see Braun being deserving after only 10 years. Pujols yes, Braun no. Give Braun 13 seasons at or around his current pace and I'd put him in.
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  20. #40
    this season was a step into the right direction.

    he needs to walk more though. he walks like ichiro but he is a power hitter. To me a power hitter must walk way more than 70 times a year even if prince fielder hits behind him. 58 walks is pathetic for a guy that lead the league in slugging.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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