Ryan Braun

[dominik]

I see Braun as a HOFer, barring an unforseen injury, and, to be honest, I can't understand the skepticism. Braun's 2011 season, in which he won the NL MVP, was a season not out of context with the rest of his career. Braun posted his best season in 2011, and it was his best by a significant amount, but it was not a fluke season by any means. Indeed, given Braun's age in 2011 (27), it is well within what one would project for Braun; he's taken his career to a new level that is reasonable for him to approach again and again over the next 4-5 years.

Braun is doing what HOFers who play LF do. He's won awards (2007 NL ROY, 2011 NL MVP). He's been on the All-Star team the last 4 years in a row. His BA is .312, and he averages over 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs per year, so he's not offensively overmatched for his position. He's the best player on a team that makes the postseason. These are the sort of things HOF left fielders do, and Braun does them. His OWP this year was .799; that's outstanding. His OWP for his career is .712, and that's HOF norm for a player at the left end of the defensive spectrum.

I also can't agree that Braun "didn't deserve the MVP award" in 2011. A case can be made for Matt Kemp being more deserving if you factor in his Gold Glove for CF, but Braun was the superior offensive player to Kemp; indeed, he posted the best offensive season of any player in the NL if you go by OWP. I can understand a vote for Kemp for MVP, but I can also understand not voting for Kemp in rememberance of his poor attitude in 2010 that cost the Dodgers. Braun may or may not have been the best player in the NL, but a strong case can be made that he was, and it's a matter of there being more than one deserving candidate, but only one award.

I don't know OWP but is it considering park factor?

I ask this because dodger stadium is a black hole for hitters. Kemps OPS+ is actually 5 points higher then Brauns.

Sorry for the OT, I think that braun is on a good way to HOF. He doesn't need to repeat this season but he does need to keep it on a high level till his mid 30s to make it because he is not exactly an early starter. not unreasonable to think that he has a good shot of doing this though.

But he should increase his walk rate as he gets older. most very well aging players that keep performing into their mid to late 30s increse their walk rate as they get older to compensate somewhat for a falling BA. If they can't it can get ugly because a .280 hitter that walks 50 times is quite useless.

I think it's a good sign that he walked a career high 58 times but still this is not enough of course. he should walks 75 times or so.

[Freakshow]

Through age 27 season

Willie Stargell: 653 games, 9.8 WAR
Chick Hafey: 690 games, 16.4 WAR
Zack Wheat: 874 games, 16.8 WAR
Billy Williams: 822 games, 19.7 WAR
Max Carey: 1040 games, 20.3 WAR
Ryan Braun: 729 games, 21.8 WAR

I like cherries too! How about:

Player              WAR/pos    G
Jim Wynn               31.2  862
Darryl Strawberry      31.2  957
Rusty Staub            31.2 1313
Charlie Keller         30.8  682
Ben Chapman            29.7 1007
Don Mattingly          29.5  857
Keith Hernandez        29.4  950
Mike Tiernan           29.1  959
Jose Canseco           28.6  972
Jack Clark             28.1  987
Johnny Callison        27.9 1095
Reggie Smith           27.8  899
Rocky Colavito         27.5  845
Elbie Fletcher         26.9 1076
Stuffy McInnis         26.4 1159
Ed Konetchy            26.1  982
Roger Maris            26.1  842
Pete Browning          25.6  713
Fred Lynn              25.5  718
Bobby Murcer           25.4  802
Oyster Burns           25.3  900
Hal Trosky             25.2 1035
Willie Davis           25.2 1058
Chet Lemon             25.1  910
Willie Wilson          25.0  842
Paul Blair             24.5  976
Jesse Barfield         24.4  874
Dave Parker            24.4  720
Del Ennis              24.3 1034
Benny Kauff            24.3  602
Lenny Dykstra          24.0  783
Paul Hines             24.0  697
Roy White              23.3  797
Ginger Beaumont        23.1  806
Mike Donlin            23.0  677
Eric Davis             22.8  640
Danny Green            22.8  811
Curt Flood             22.7 1149
Fred McGriff           22.6  731
George Burns           22.6  801
Andy Van Slyke         22.1  832
Clyde Milan            22.0 1027

[Sockeye]

I like cherries too! How about:

Player              WAR/pos    G
Jim Wynn               31.2  862
Darryl Strawberry      31.2  957
Rusty Staub            31.2 1313
Charlie Keller         30.8  682
Ben Chapman            29.7 1007
Don Mattingly          29.5  857
Keith Hernandez        29.4  950
Mike Tiernan           29.1  959
Jose Canseco           28.6  972
Jack Clark             28.1  987
Johnny Callison        27.9 1095
Reggie Smith           27.8  899
Rocky Colavito         27.5  845
Elbie Fletcher         26.9 1076
Stuffy McInnis         26.4 1159
Ed Konetchy            26.1  982
Roger Maris            26.1  842
Pete Browning          25.6  713
Fred Lynn              25.5  718
Bobby Murcer           25.4  802
Oyster Burns           25.3  900
Hal Trosky             25.2 1035
Willie Davis           25.2 1058
Chet Lemon             25.1  910
Willie Wilson          25.0  842
Paul Blair             24.5  976
Jesse Barfield         24.4  874
Dave Parker            24.4  720
Del Ennis              24.3 1034
Benny Kauff            24.3  602
Lenny Dykstra          24.0  783
Paul Hines             24.0  697
Roy White              23.3  797
Ginger Beaumont        23.1  806
Mike Donlin            23.0  677
Eric Davis             22.8  640
Danny Green            22.8  811
Curt Flood             22.7 1149
Fred McGriff           22.6  731
George Burns           22.6  801
Andy Van Slyke         22.1  832
Clyde Milan            22.0 1027

Ahh well since you like cherries so well here are a few more for you.

WAR during age 27 season

Lloyd Waner -0.5
Jim Rice 1.2
Willie Stargell 1.9
Lou Brock 2.4
Fred Clarke 2.8
Zack Wheat 3.1
Heinie Manush 3.6
Chick Hafey 4.1
Joe Medwick 4.1
Harmon Killebrew 4.3
Ralph Kiner 4.7
Frank Robinson 4.9
Joe Kelley 5.4
Jesse Burkett 6.1
Babe Ruth 6.2
Goose Goslin 6.8
Ed Delahanty 7.5
Al Simmons 7.6
Ryan Braun 7.7

[Freakshow]

Ahh well since you like cherries so well here are a few more for you.

WAR during age 27 season

Of course, the point is that there are a lot more non-HOFers with +22 WAR thru age 27 than there are legit HOFers with less than 22 WAR thru age 27.

Your 2nd cherry list shows that many HOFers didn't have their best season at age 27. Great.

Here are a few non-HOFers who had an as good or better age-27 season than Braun:

Player       WAR/pos Year
Jouett Meekin   10.9 1894
Jack Coombs      9.7 1910
Russ Ford        9.5 1910
Wes Ferrell      9.1 1935
Chuck Knoblauch  8.8 1996
Ron Guidry       8.5 1978
Fred Lynn        8.4 1979
Darrell Porter   8.4 1979
Pat Hentgen      8.4 1996
Lenny Dykstra    8.3 1990
Mel Parnell      8.2 1949
Jim Wynn         8.1 1969
Harvey Haddix    8.0 1953
Rocky Colavito   7.9 1961
Kenny Lofton     7.7 1994
Kevin Mitchell   7.7 1989
Sam McDowell     7.7 1970
Mike Donlin      7.6 1905
Nap Rucker       7.6 1912
George Uhle      7.5 1926

[Sockeye]

Of course, the point is that there are a lot more non-HOFers with +22 WAR thru age 27 than there are legit HOFers with less than 22 WAR thru age 27.

Your 2nd cherry list shows that many HOFers didn't have their best season at age 27. Great.

Here are a few non-HOFers who had an as good or better age-27 season than Braun:

Player       WAR/pos Year
Jouett Meekin   10.9 1894
Jack Coombs      9.7 1910
Russ Ford        9.5 1910
Wes Ferrell      9.1 1935
Chuck Knoblauch  8.8 1996
Ron Guidry       8.5 1978
Fred Lynn        8.4 1979
Darrell Porter   8.4 1979
Pat Hentgen      8.4 1996
Lenny Dykstra    8.3 1990
Mel Parnell      8.2 1949
Jim Wynn         8.1 1969
Harvey Haddix    8.0 1953
Rocky Colavito   7.9 1961
Kenny Lofton     7.7 1994
Kevin Mitchell   7.7 1989
Sam McDowell     7.7 1970
Mike Donlin      7.6 1905
Nap Rucker       7.6 1912
George Uhle      7.5 1926

Your post is comical. So many things in need of correcting I hardly know where to begin. Okay first off the fact that you've had to go to including pitchers from the 1800's as a way to increase your list size only proves my point even more. Secondly my list included ONLY HOF LFers!!! There are exactly 20 players in the HOF that played at least 50% of their games in LF at age 27, 18 (90%) of which had a lower WAR total during their age 27 season than Ryan Braun. Of the 155 HOF position players playing in the majors at age 27 only 26 (16.8%) had a better season (according to WAR) 128 (82.6%) had a lower WAR total during there age 27 season. Duke Snider had an identical 7.7 WAR total.

The reason that I only limited the list to HOF LFers. First Ryan Braun plays LF so it stands to reason that he should be compared to other LFers and second I didn't feel like taking the time to list all 128 HOFers with a worse age 27 season. I assumed anyone looking at the list could figure out that is what the list was of.

You want some more numbers? Alright how about this.... Of the 4432 position players in the majors that were active at age 27, exactly 37 had a higher WAR total at age 27 than Ryan Braun, 4 others had exactly 7.7 WAR, that leaves 4391 position players with a lower age 27 WAR total. That is 99.07% Sorry but I'm not going to list all 4391 players. Hate to disappoint you!

And that my friend is the WHOLE CHERRY PIE!!

[drstrangelove]

He's 26 and has played 4 seasons. I know it's very early on his career but I'd like to get some thoughts on his career so far and his future HOF chances.

1) His current numbers are very nice, but there is no obvious HoF potential yet. He needs a lot more years at this level. If we assume 10 more years that equal the first 5, then we get to HoF numbers.
2) How can he get 10 more years like the first 5? He will have a decline after age 31-32, as all ML sluggers (all people in fact!) do suffer due to reduced speed, nagging injuries, normal aging in eyesight, etc. So he needs to have at least 3 years peaking higher than we have seen to offset the decline he will experience after age 32. At least 3 OPS+ seasons of around 185-195+ will be needed.
3) How likely is it that he will have 3 years like that (185-195+), given his best is 166 now? It's less than 50/50. Why? Because most players have their 5 best years between ages 20-39, but 40% of those happen before age 28. (No one has their best 5 between 28-35.) Thus, we have likely seen 2 of his best 5 years, but it's not likely that we saw his 4th and 5th best season, while he has yet to have his 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.. While it's possible that he could have his 3 best years after after age 27, it's not very likely, given the averages. This makes it more difficult for him to sustain his quality stats over the next 10 years to match the prior 5 years.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/designated_hitter/

4) So what? So the next 5 years are critical to his chances because this is now where he is almost constrained to show higher peaks. If he can collect at least 2 seasons much better than this one (e.g., 185-195+) and do well in the rest, he will have an excellent chance to go to the hall. If he meanders between 130-160 the next 5 years, or misses most of a season or two due to injury, then his chances drop drastically.
5) Why? Because meandering means that all of his peak seasons were in the 145-166 range and, by the age of 37, his career OPS+ will drop to the 130's or lower. He will then have to keep playing well into his thirties to accumulate the counting stats to make up for falling quality stats.

He can still make it if he plays well into his 30's, the issues become: does he stay healthy? does he decline too fast? Career OPS+ values of 145 or more have a far better chance at the HoF than those around 130, UNLESS there is something ELSE great to back it up (awards, records, championships, base running, defensive wizardry, great relationships with votes, etc.)

[rsuriyop]

For some reason I've never really took an interest in Braun, perhaps because I've felt that he had gotten too overhyped earlier on. But putting that aside, he's proven to be one of the most consistent players over the past five years. That along with his great swing mechanics suggests to me that he won't be slowing down any time soon. He's definitely on HOF pace, and I'd place my bets that he'll make it in eventually.

[ol' aches and pains]

For some reason I've never really took an interest in Braun, perhaps because I've felt that he had gotten too overhyped earlier on. But putting that aside, he's proven to be one of the most consistent players over the past five years. That along with his great swing mechanics suggests to me that he won't be slowing down any time soon. He's definitely on HOF pace, and I'd place my bets that he'll make it in eventually.

I completely agree with you. He hits for power, he hits for average, he doesn't embarrass himself in the field or on the base paths, and he just won the MVP. I like what I've seen so far.

[Freakshow]

Your post is comical. So many things in need of correcting I hardly know where to begin. Okay first off the fact that you've had to go to including pitchers from the 1800's as a way to increase your list size only proves my point even more. Secondly my list included ONLY HOF LFers!!! There are exactly 20 players in the HOF that played at least 50% of their games in LF at age 27, 18 (90%) of which had a lower WAR total during their age 27 season than Ryan Braun. Of the 155 HOF position players playing in the majors at age 27 only 26 (16.8%) had a better season (according to WAR) 128 (82.6%) had a lower WAR total during there age 27 season. Duke Snider had an identical 7.7 WAR total.

The reason that I only limited the list to HOF LFers. First Ryan Braun plays LF so it stands to reason that he should be compared to other LFers and second I didn't feel like taking the time to list all 128 HOFers with a worse age 27 season. I assumed anyone looking at the list could figure out that is what the list was of.

You want some more numbers? Alright how about this.... Of the 4432 position players in the majors that were active at age 27, exactly 37 had a higher WAR total at age 27 than Ryan Braun, 4 others had exactly 7.7 WAR, that leaves 4391 position players with a lower age 27 WAR total. That is 99.07% Sorry but I'm not going to list all 4391 players. Hate to disappoint you!

And that my friend is the WHOLE CHERRY PIE!!

So very like you to miss the point. This focus on comparison of players' age-27 season is of little meaning. The question is: Is he likely to have a better season?

There are 20 LF in the HOF. Most had a better peak season than Braun's season:

12.2 Yastrzemski
11.8 T. Williams
11.5 Musial
10.0 Henderson
9.3 Delahanty
9.2 Burkett
8.9 Medwick
8.1 Stargell
8.1 Kiner
8.0 J. Kelley
8.0 Simmons
7.5 Manush (7.9 schedule adjusted)
6.6 Clarke (8.1 schedule adjusted)

Most players who have a peak season of 7.7 do not make the HOF. Most players who have an established 5 WAR level of play before age 27 do not go on to put together a string of 7+ WAR seasons; right now, that 7.7 season stands out as a fluke season.

I agree that Braun had a great season (although he was not his league's best player). Nobody would dispute that. The question is how likely is he to maintain that level? It's possible, but history says the odds are against Braun doing it. That's my point. (drstrangelove makes the same point in a different way.)

It will be interesting to watch his progress in the coming years.

[Sockeye]

1) His current numbers are very nice, but there is no obvious HoF potential yet. He needs a lot more years at this level. If we assume 10 more years that equal the first 5, then we get to HoF numbers.

I would roughly agree with that conclusion. About 8 more seasons equal to his first should put him in HOF area.

2) How can he get 10 more years like the first 5? He will have a decline after age 31-32, as all ML sluggers (all people in fact!) do suffer due to reduced speed, nagging injuries, normal aging in eyesight, etc. So he needs to have at least 3 years peaking higher than we have seen to offset the decline he will experience after age 32. At least 3 OPS+ seasons of around 185-195+ will be needed.

All players to deline with age. You are however incorrect on the OPS+ number. Of the 162 position players in the HOF only 11 had 2+ seasons with a 185 OPS+ or higher. 18 others had exactly one season with an OPS+ of 185 or higher. That leaves 133 of the 162 position players in the HOF that NEVER had even one 185 OPS+ season. So why would Ryan Braun need to do something 3 times that 80% of HOFers were unable to do even once? Why does he have to be that much better than the historic HOFer?

3) How likely is it that he will have 3 years like that (185-195+), given his best is 166 now? It's less than 50/50. Why? Because most players have their 5 best years between ages 20-39, but 40% of those happen before age 28. (No one has their best 5 between 28-35.) Thus, we have likely seen 2 of his best 5 years, but it's not likely that we saw his 4th and 5th best season, while he has yet to have his 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.. While it's possible that he could have his 3 best years after after age 27, it's not very likely, given the averages. This makes it more difficult for him to sustain his quality stats over the next 10 years to match the prior 5 years.

As I showed above he doesn't need 3 seasons with a 185 OPS+. Lets look at his career thus far compared to the other HOFers. Only 40 of the 162 position players in the HOF had a season with a 166 OPS+ or better by age 27. Another 19 players didn't acheive their first 166 OPS+ season until after age 27. Only 59 of the 162 had a career best OPS+ of 166 or higher. 103 never reached that level! So even if this turned out to be a career year for Ryan Braun it is already best than the career best season of 103 of the 162 position players in the HOF (64%)

4) So what? So the next 5 years are critical to his chances because this is now where he is almost constrained to show higher peaks. If he can collect at least 2 seasons much better than this one (e.g., 185-195+) and do well in the rest, he will have an excellent chance to go to the hall. If he meanders between 130-160 the next 5 years, or misses most of a season or two due to injury, then his chances drop drastically.

The age 28-32 seasons are always crucial to any players chances of making that HOF. 5 more seasons in the 130-160 range or if he matches the 145 OPS+ number that he put up over his first 5 seasons will keep him very much on a HOF pace. The only thing that would derail his chances are injuries or a serious decline in production. Unlikely for a player at the age of 28-32.

5) Why? Because meandering means that all of his peak seasons were in the 145-166 range and, by the age of 37, his career OPS+ will drop to the 130's or lower. He will then have to keep playing well into his thirties to accumulate the counting stats to make up for falling quality stats.

For the sake of ease lets say his numbers are exactly the same over his next 5 season that they were for his first 5. That would give him 1012 runs, 1796 hits, 374 doubles, 52 triples, 322 home runs, 1062 RBI, 192 stolen bases, .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+ through age 32. That's an average of 101 runs, 180 hits, 37 doubles, 5 triples, 32 home runs, 106 RBI, and 19 stolen bases a season to go along with his .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+. Even if he decided to retire at that point he'd have a fair argument from a short productive career case. It's more likely he'll continue to play into his mid to late 30's. Adding to his counting totals while his production numbers decline. If he plays long enough to have his OPS+ drop into the 130's then his counting totals will be high enough that it counters the drop in production. There are only 37 players in the HOF with a OPS+ of 140 or higher. So that still puts him in pretty elite company from a production stand point.

He can still make it if he plays well into his 30's, the issues become: does he stay healthy? does he decline too fast? Career OPS+ values of 145 or more have a far better chance at the HoF than those around 130, UNLESS there is something ELSE great to back it up (awards, records, championships, base running, defensive wizardry, great relationships with votes, etc.)

On average according to my research a players career OPS through age 27 is only .005 points higher than their final career OPS numbers. Braun's current OPS is .933 so if he has the usual trajectory his should finish his career with around a .928 OPS. The probably keeps his OPS+ in the 144 range.

[Sockeye]

So very like you to miss the point. This focus on comparison of players' age-27 season is of little meaning. The question is: Is he likely to have a better season?

There are 20 LF in the HOF. Most had a better peak season than Braun's season:

12.2 Yastrzemski
11.8 T. Williams
11.5 Musial
10.0 Henderson
9.3 Delahanty
9.2 Burkett
8.9 Medwick
8.1 Stargell
8.1 Kiner
8.0 J. Kelley
8.0 Simmons
7.5 Manush (7.9 schedule adjusted)
6.6 Clarke (8.1 schedule adjusted)

Most players who have a peak season of 7.7 do not make the HOF. Most players who have an established 5 WAR level of play before age 27 do not go on to put together a string of 7+ WAR seasons; right now, that 7.7 season stands out as a fluke season.

I agree that Braun had a great season (although he was not his league's best player). Nobody would dispute that. The question is how likely is he to maintain that level? It's possible, but history says the odds are against Braun doing it. That's my point. (drstrangelove makes the same point in a different way.)

It will be interesting to watch his progress in the coming years.

You are taking their career best season over the course of their entire career and comparing it to Ryan Braun through age 27. To be perfectly fair you need to compare their career best seasons through age 27. When doing so we see the following.

1. Carl Yastrzemski: 12.2 in 1967 at age 27
2. Ted Williams: 11.8 in 1946 at age 27
3. Rickey Henderson: 10.0 in 1980 at age 21
4. Joe Medwick: 8.9 in 1937 at age 25
5. Ralph Kiner: 8.1 in 1949 at age 26
6. Joe Kelley: 8.0 in 1896 at age 24
7. Ed Delahanty: 7.8 in 1893 at age 25
------------------------------------------
Ryan Braun: 7.7 in 2011 at age 27
------------------------------------------
8. Al Simmons: 7.6 in 1929 at age 27
9. Heinie Manush: 7.5 in 1928 at age 26
10. Billy Williams: 7.4 in 1965 at age 27
11. Goose Goslin: 7.2 in 1926 at age 25
12. Jim Rice: 7.0 in 1978 at age 25
13. Fred Clarke: 6.6 in 1897 at age 24
14. Jesse Burkett: 6.4 in 1895 at age 26
15. Lou Brock: 5.4 in 1964 at age 25
16. Chick Hafey: 5.0 in 1928 at age 25
17. Willie Stargell: 4.6 in 1966 at age 26
18. Zack Wheat: 4.6 in 1914 at age 26

There are actually only 19 HOFers who played at least 50% of their games in LF. Before I think I had mistaking included Babe Ruth. He was obviously a RFer. Also Monte Irvin didn't first appear in the majors until age 30. So of the 18 players only 7 had a better season than Braun by the age of 27 (39%)

You say that his 2011 season was a fluke but his 2nd best season (2009) his WAR was 5.9. There have been exactly 134 seasons From 1871 to 2011, Younger than 27, Hall Of Fame Members, Played 50% of games at LF. Only 41 of which (31%) were better than Ryan Braun 2nd best season. So his 2nd best season was still better than 69% of HOFers seasons in LF through age 27 and better than Lou Brock, Chick Hafey, Willie Stargell, or Zack Wheat's best season. In fact Ryan Braun's 3rd best season according to WAR (2010) he had 4.7 WAR was still better than Willie Stargell or Zack Wheat's career best WAR through age 27. Stargell & Wheat aren't exactly borderline HOFers either!

[jalbright]

All players to deline with age. You are however incorrect on the OPS+ number. Of the 162 position players in the HOF only 11 had 2+ seasons with a 185 OPS+ or higher. 18 others had exactly one season with an OPS+ of 185 or higher. That leaves 133 of the 162 position players in the HOF that NEVER had even one 185 OPS+ season. So why would Ryan Braun need to do something 3 times that 80% of HOFers were unable to do even once? Why does he have to be that much better than the historic HOFer?

As I showed above he doesn't need 3 seasons with a 185 OPS+. Lets look at his career thus far compared to the other HOFers. Only 40 of the 162 position players in the HOF had a season with a 166 OPS+ or better by age 27. Another 19 players didn't acheive their first 166 OPS+ season until after age 27. Only 59 of the 162 had a career best OPS+ of 166 or higher. 103 never reached that level! So even if this turned out to be a career year for Ryan Braun it is already best than the career best season of 103 of the 162 position players in the HOF (64%).

I think that throwing middle infielders and catchers into this analysis as the above does isn't right and makes your argument appear better than it really is. Braun outhits the Ozzie Smiths of the world, but he doesn't have the impact with the glove those guys do. Corner OF and 1B certainly belong, and maybe CF and possibly 3B make a fair comparison.

[drstrangelove]

Triple first 5 years			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
9528		144.6	65.4
			
Double first 5 years + decline			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	130	6.0	1.0
663	125	7.8	1.7
708	120	8.0	1.7
684	115	7.4	1.3
629	110	6.5	1.0
550	95	4.9	-0.5
500	95	4.5	-0.5
10578		132.2	49.3
			
Double first 5 years + decline			
with 2 great peaks			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	185	11.6	10.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	185	12.0	10.0
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	130	6.0	1.0
663	125	7.8	1.7
708	120	8.0	1.7
684	115	7.4	1.3
629	110	6.5	1.0
550	95	4.9	-0.5
500	95	4.5	-0.5
10578		139.1	62.6

1) Just to clarify as it seems to have been cxonfusing, here is what my post was saying:
a) if you take Braun's first 5 years and just assume he doubles that again to 10 years, he looks like a solid HoF candidate. He is not CERTAIN to make it with 145 OPS+ and 65 WAR, because as we all know there are people who have not made it with comparable WAR, but I'd comfortably take odds on him getting in.
b) if on the other hand, you simply double his 5 years then, give him a decline phase from 32 to 39, his overall stats 132 OPS+ and 49 WAR look underwhelming. To explain what I mean, he falls neatly in that scenario between Strawberry and Will Clark (who was 137 OPS+ and 55 WAR, for comparison). I think that means he doesn't make it.
c) on the other hand, if we give him the same scenario ib b), but give him 2 peak years of 185 OPS+ (WAR of 10), he ends up at 139 OPS+ and almost 63 WAR. That elevates him to a candidate again, and given that he likely wins 1 or 2 more MVP awards with those 2 peak seaasons, I think he gets in, no problem.

[drstrangelove]

I would roughly agree with that conclusion. About 8 more seasons equal to his first should put him in HOF area.

8 seasons will not do it. The counting stats, WAR (around 57) in particular will be too low. The quality stats will be good, but they are not substantive enough to sway voters who want big numbers. 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 145 and WAR of 57 is not overwhelming; it's marginal. If it were 170 OPS+ and 57 WAR it would be a much better argument.

All players to deline with age. You are however incorrect on the OPS+ number. Of the 162 position players in the HOF only 11 had 2+ seasons with a 185 OPS+ or higher. 18 others had exactly one season with an OPS+ of 185 or higher. That leaves 133 of the 162 position players in the HOF that NEVER had even one 185 OPS+ season. So why would Ryan Braun need to do something 3 times that 80% of HOFers were unable to do even once? Why does he have to be that much better than the historic HOFer?

I did not say he need to have 2 185+ seasons because HoF have 185+ seaasons. I said he needs those to make sure his decline phase OPS+ drops will not drop his overall average too low. It is not relevant what 133 of the 162 position players have done. Some of those are catchers, some are shortstops, some are center fielders, third baseman or second basemen. Some of them have amazing foot speed and stolen base feats, while some others were arguably leaders on their teams. Some of course don't deserve to be in the hall at all. Once you cut those out of the picture, the story changes.

As I showed above he doesn't need 3 seasons with a 185 OPS+. Lets look at his career thus far compared to the other HOFers. Only 40 of the 162 position players in the HOF had a season with a 166 OPS+ or better by age 27. Another 19 players didn't acheive their first 166 OPS+ season until after age 27. Only 59 of the 162 had a career best OPS+ of 166 or higher. 103 never reached that level! So even if this turned out to be a career year for Ryan Braun it is already best than the career best season of 103 of the 162 position players in the HOF (64%)

It doesn't matter what age they achieved it. Why a fixation over age 27? The voters don't care what someone did at 27. Or 26. Or 31. It's the career and the peaks that influence the voting. not the achievement of 166 OPS+ at age 27. Bruan plays the second easiest position on the field with zero foot speed and marginal defense. He doesn't get kudos for being better than 64% other players who played harder positions with better speed or better defense. If that was the argument, then there are boatloads of DH, first basemen and left fielders that should be in the hall.

The age 28-32 seasons are always crucial to any players chances of making that HOF. 5 more seasons in the 130-160 range or if he matches the 145 OPS+ number that he put up over his first 5 seasons will keep him very much on a HOF pace. The only thing that would derail his chances are injuries or a serious decline in production. Unlikely for a player at the age of 28-32.

I agree, but I didn't suggest he will decline at 28-32, although it does happen.

For the sake of ease lets say his numbers are exactly the same over his next 5 season that they were for his first 5. That would give him 1012 runs, 1796 hits, 374 doubles, 52 triples, 322 home runs, 1062 RBI, 192 stolen bases, .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+ through age 32. That's an average of 101 runs, 180 hits, 37 doubles, 5 triples, 32 home runs, 106 RBI, and 19 stolen bases a season to go along with his .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+. Even if he decided to retire at that point he'd have a fair argument from a short productive career case. It's more likely he'll continue to play into his mid to late 30's. Adding to his counting totals while his production numbers decline. If he plays long enough to have his OPS+ drop into the 130's then his counting totals will be high enough that it counters the drop in production. There are only 37 players in the HOF with a OPS+ of 140 or higher. So that still puts him in pretty elite company from a production stand point.

If he retires at 32, he does not get into the hall. That's my opinion. You aren't getting in on 322 home runs and 1,062 RBI. Voters don't vote on your average per season. They vote on career totals and peaks. They give you slack MAYBE if you have a severe injury or have massive peaks. In Braun's best year he was not the best in the league.

On average according to my research a players career OPS through age 27 is only .005 points higher than their final career OPS numbers. Braun's current OPS is .933 so if he has the usual trajectory his should finish his career with around a .928 OPS. The probably keeps his OPS+ in the 144 range.

I don't want to debate data you have that I can't see. I don't agree that final OPS+ numbers WILL end up higher by the end of someone's career from age 27 on. It does so IF you select people in a way that their stats do that. If you exclude people whose careers don't fit the definition of the group you want to study, then of course, everyone's stats will go up.


Just as a reminder, I haven't said Braun should or should not make it to the hall, only speculated on what it would take for him to get there. There's little doubt that as of today (11/30/11) that Braun, Votto, Cabrera and Fielder are all equally showing the talent to possibly make it. They are all of similar age and have solid years under their belts. I just don't believe that all 4 will make it because history tells us, that it doesn't work out that way.

[dominik]

1) His current numbers are very nice, but there is no obvious HoF potential yet. He needs a lot more years at this level. If we assume 10 more years that equal the first 5, then we get to HoF numbers.
2) How can he get 10 more years like the first 5? He will have a decline after age 31-32, as all ML sluggers (all people in fact!) do suffer due to reduced speed, nagging injuries, normal aging in eyesight, etc. So he needs to have at least 3 years peaking higher than we have seen to offset the decline he will experience after age 32. At least 3 OPS+ seasons of around 185-195+ will be needed.
3) How likely is it that he will have 3 years like that (185-195+), given his best is 166 now? It's less than 50/50. Why? Because most players have their 5 best years between ages 20-39, but 40% of those happen before age 28. (No one has their best 5 between 28-35.) Thus, we have likely seen 2 of his best 5 years, but it's not likely that we saw his 4th and 5th best season, while he has yet to have his 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.. While it's possible that he could have his 3 best years after after age 27, it's not very likely, given the averages. This makes it more difficult for him to sustain his quality stats over the next 10 years to match the prior 5 years.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/designated_hitter/

4) So what? So the next 5 years are critical to his chances because this is now where he is almost constrained to show higher peaks. If he can collect at least 2 seasons much better than this one (e.g., 185-195+) and do well in the rest, he will have an excellent chance to go to the hall. If he meanders between 130-160 the next 5 years, or misses most of a season or two due to injury, then his chances drop drastically.
5) Why? Because meandering means that all of his peak seasons were in the 145-166 range and, by the age of 37, his career OPS+ will drop to the 130's or lower. He will then have to keep playing well into his thirties to accumulate the counting stats to make up for falling quality stats.

He can still make it if he plays well into his 30's, the issues become: does he stay healthy? does he decline too fast? Career OPS+ values of 145 or more have a far better chance at the HoF than those around 130, UNLESS there is something ELSE great to back it up (awards, records, championships, base running, defensive wizardry, great relationships with votes, etc.)

Is that a joke? 90% of all HOFers never had a season above 180 OPS+. A 180 OPS+ season in these days is absolutely outstanding (I would say it at least equals a 200 OPS+ season in the 1920s-1950s). Arod never had such a season, griffey never had such a season. If he stays at 150 for 4 more years and then slowly declines he will likely make it quite easily.

your standard is not HOF standard. it's inner circle standard. if he posts 3 seasons better than his MVP season he would be one of the best players of the last decades.
How can you say he needs 3 pujols or pre roids bonds seasons to get on HOF track. you must be joking.
He is already well on HOF track. one MVP, one ROY and every year an all star put you well ahead of most already.
It's true that he has to do lot more but he doesn't need to replicate this season. a couple of 150s till he is 32 or so would be enough if he then only declines slowly.

And how can you say ten more years? if he keeps his level for ten more years he is one of the best 5 LFers of all time not just a HOFer.

How about 5 more years and then some more solid years? the MVP is a huge achivement. If he can finish his career at over 140 OPS+ he will easily make the hall. he just can't flame out early.

[dominik]

8 seasons will not do it. The counting stats, WAR (around 57) in particular will be too low. The quality stats will be good, but they are not substantive enough to sway voters who want big numbers. 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 145 and WAR of 57 is not overwhelming; it's marginal. If it were 170 OPS+ and 57 WAR it would be a much better argument.



I did not say he need to have 2 185+ seasons because HoF have 185+ seaasons. I said he needs those to make sure his decline phase OPS+ drops will not drop his overall average too low. It is not relevant what 133 of the 162 position players have done. Some of those are catchers, some are shortstops, some are center fielders, third baseman or second basemen. Some of them have amazing foot speed and stolen base feats, while some others were arguably leaders on their teams. Some of course don't deserve to be in the hall at all. Once you cut those out of the picture, the story changes.



It doesn't matter what age they achieved it. Why a fixation over age 27? The voters don't care what someone did at 27. Or 26. Or 31. It's the career and the peaks that influence the voting. not the achievement of 166 OPS+ at age 27. Bruan plays the second easiest position on the field with zero foot speed and marginal defense. He doesn't get kudos for being better than 64% other players who played harder positions with better speed or better defense. If that was the argument, then there are boatloads of DH, first basemen and left fielders that should be in the hall.



I agree, but I didn't suggest he will decline at 28-32, although it does happen.




If he retires at 32, he does not get into the hall. That's my opinion. You aren't getting in on 322 home runs and 1,062 RBI. Voters don't vote on your average per season. They vote on career totals and peaks. They give you slack MAYBE if you have a severe injury or have massive peaks. In Braun's best year he was not the best in the league.



I don't want to debate data you have that I can't see. I don't agree that final OPS+ numbers WILL end up higher by the end of someone's career from age 27 on. It does so IF you select people in a way that their stats do that. If you exclude people whose careers don't fit the definition of the group you want to study, then of course, everyone's stats will go up.


Just as a reminder, I haven't said Braun should or should not make it to the hall, only speculated on what it would take for him to get there. There's little doubt that as of today (11/30/11) that Braun, Votto, Cabrera and Fielder are all equally showing the talent to possibly make it. They are all of similar age and have solid years under their belts. I just don't believe that all 4 will make it because history tells us, that it doesn't work out that way.

What? there are no players who post multiple 170 seasons. well there are some but most played before 1960. multiple 140-160 seasons is more than great.

LFer career OPS+:

1.williams 190
2. bonds 181
3. joe jackson 169
4. stan musial 159
5 manny ramirez 154

Is that your HOF standard?

Usually players finish about with the same OPS+ they have at age 27 (they decline but you also have to consider the build up). so if he finishes around 145 he will be around 7th or so (have not counted exactly) LFer of all time considering OPS+. but there are already more than 20 LFers in the hall...

[drstrangelove]

Is that a joke? 90% of all HOFers never had a season above 180 OPS+. A 180 OPS+ season in these days is absolutely outstanding (I would say it at least equals a 200 OPS+ season in the 1920s-1950s). Arod never had such a season, griffey never had such a season. If he stays at 150 for 4 more years and then slowly declines he will likely make it quite easily.

your standard is not HOF standard. it's inner circle standard. if he posts 3 seasons better than his MVP season he would be one of the best players of the last decades.
How can you say he needs 3 pujols or pre roids bonds seasons to get on HOF track. you must be joking.
He is already well on HOF track. one MVP, one ROY and every year an all star put you well ahead of most already.
It's true that he has to do lot more but he doesn't need to replicate this season. a couple of 150s till he is 32 or so would be enough if he then only declines slowly.

And how can you say ten more years? if he keeps his level for ten more years he is one of the best 5 LFers of all time not just a HOFer.

How about 5 more years and then some more solid years? the MVP is a huge achivement. If he can finish his career at over 140 OPS+ he will easily make the hall. he just can't flame out early.

1) I'm not sure how simply I can explain this: I did not say he needs a 185+ OPS+ to get into the hall of fame. I said he would likely need that in order to make sure his overall OPS+ does not drop too low during the course of his career. I was talking about how to keep his CAREER OPS+ higher. No one especially me has said that anyone has to achieve a particular thing in one particular season in order to make it into the HoF.

2) If you have facts to show that overall career OPS+ is flat in ages up through age 27 to the period after age 27, by all means post it. I think that it will be proven to be false, but again that is really not the question. I was not discussing all the players who play baseball, nor all the players who play today. I was talking about one player: Braun. It's not his fault or my fault he was not in the majors until age 23. He SHOULD have been playing by age 21, but that's as it is. Regardless, I portrayed several scenarios for him to explain my point. By all means, post yours or edit mine.

3) I'm completely confused why the mention of ARod (an excellent sbhortstop with speed with 106 homers, 352 RBI and 21 WAR by age 22) and Griffey (an excellent center fielder with speed with 87 homers, 344 RBI and 20 WAR by age 22) to Braun (a below average left fielder with good speed and 0 plate appearances by age 22.) Braun is so far off the map compared to these 2 it's insane. Yes, if he wants to show up at the dance, 2 hours late missing some of the bells and whistles, he's going to have to make up some ground some where.

[drstrangelove]

What? there are no players who post multiple 170 seasons. well there are some but most played before 1960. multiple 140-160 seasons is more than great.

Will Clark 7 season at 140-175 OPS+, career 58 WAR
Reggie Smith 7 seasons at 140-171 OPS+, career 63 WAR
Jack Clark 7 seasons at 140-176 OPS+, career 55 WAR
Braun 3 seasons at 140-166 OPS+, career 22 WAR

The first 3 are saying hi with their HoF votes: 4.4% one and done, .7% one and done, 1.5% one and done.

17 regular players are playing TODAY with career averages of 136+ in OPS+. Excluding 4 I think due to PEDS, that leaves 13. A career 140 OPS+ leaves a player in the pack where having no speed, playing an easy position, and having no noticeable records or peaks hurts.

Again, he could get in IF he can sustain a 145 OPS+ career and has a long career...but to do that he will need some large peaks that we haven't seen.

[Freakshow]

if he wants to show up at the dance, 2 hours late missing some of the bells and whistles, he's going to have to make up some ground some where.

This is an important point with regards to Braun: thru his age-27 season he's lagging behind a typical HOF pace. Of the 20 LF in the Hall, 15 had more hits than Braun (16 when you schedule adjust O'Rourke); 14 had more WAR than Braun (15 when you schedule adjust O'Rourke).

HOF LF thru age-27 season

Rk             Player WAR/pos    H
1         Joe Medwick    38.8 1492
2          Joe Kelley    40.3 1304
3        Goose Goslin    35.9 1277
4         Stan Musial    50.6 1225
5    Carl Yastrzemski    33.4 1201
6    Rickey Henderson    51.1 1182
7        Ed Delahanty    26.7 1182
8          Al Simmons    28.2 1169
9       Jesse Burkett    26.9 1166
10        Fred Clarke    23.1 1150
11           Jim Rice    23.2 1124
12      Heinie Manush    22.9 1119
13         Zack Wheat    16.8  961
14     Billy Williams    19.7  928
15       Ted Williams    46.9  925
16          Lou Brock    13.0  821
17        Chick Hafey    16.4  806
18        Ralph Kiner    29.1  767
19    Willie Stargell     9.8  621
20        Jim ORourke    15.2  604

Then there is the strong likelihood that there is going to be a very significant shift in standards for the Hall of Fame, making it harder for Braun than many of those old-time LFers. A very good article outlining the reasons why, written by Bill James (who else) four years ago: Hall of Famers Among Us

[Cougar]

This is an important point with regards to Braun: thru his age-27 season he's lagging behind a typical HOF pace. Of the 20 LF in the Hall, 15 had more hits than Braun (16 when you schedule adjust O'Rourke); 14 had more WAR than Braun (15 when you schedule adjust O'Rourke).

HOF LF thru age-27 season

Rk             Player WAR/pos    H
1         Joe Medwick    38.8 1492
2          Joe Kelley    40.3 1304
3        Goose Goslin    35.9 1277
4         Stan Musial    50.6 1225
5    Carl Yastrzemski    33.4 1201
6    Rickey Henderson    51.1 1182
7        Ed Delahanty    26.7 1182
8          Al Simmons    28.2 1169
9       Jesse Burkett    26.9 1166
10        Fred Clarke    23.1 1150
11           Jim Rice    23.2 1124
12      Heinie Manush    22.9 1119
13         Zack Wheat    16.8  961
14     Billy Williams    19.7  928
15       Ted Williams    46.9  925
16          Lou Brock    13.0  821
17        Chick Hafey    16.4  806
18        Ralph Kiner    29.1  767
19    Willie Stargell     9.8  621
20        Jim ORourke    15.2  604

Then there is the strong likelihood that there is going to be a very significant shift in standards for the Hall of Fame, making it harder for Braun than many of those old-time LFers. A very good article outlining the reasons why, written by Bill James (who else) four years ago: Hall of Famers Among Us

Braun may be behind the pace of past HOF LFers, but major leaguers are maintaining their skill set deeper into their thirties than players have in the past as well, given modern training methods, nutrition, etc. (We shall see just how much of that may have been due to PEDs, I suppose.)

So perhaps the 20th century may provide less predictive power in the 21st century.

[Freakshow]

major leaguers are maintaining their skill set deeper into their thirties than players have in the past as well, given modern training methods, nutrition, etc. (We shall see just how much of that may have been due to PEDs, I suppose.)

I've heard this line, too. Any studies showing it actually happening?

Most WAR, 1969-80, position players age 35+

Rk             Player WAR/pos Year Age  Tm
1          Hank Aaron     8.3 1969  35 ATL
2    Roberto Clemente     7.1 1971  36 PIT
3           Pete Rose     6.7 1976  35 CIN
4          Hank Aaron     6.6 1971  37 ATL
5         Willie Mays     6.5 1971  40 SFG
6    Roberto Clemente     5.2 1970  35 PIT
7       Luis Aparicio     5.2 1970  36 CHW
8         Willie Mays     5.0 1970  39 SFG
9          Hank Aaron     4.9 1970  36 ATL
10         Hank Aaron     4.8 1973  39 ATL
11     Frank Robinson     4.7 1973  37 CAL
12   Carl Yastrzemski     4.5 1977  37 BOS
13       Reggie Smith     4.4 1980  35 LAD
14   Roberto Clemente     4.4 1972  37 PIT
15    Brooks Robinson     4.3 1974  37 BAL

Most WAR, 2000-11, position players age 35+ (deleting Barry Bonds)

Rk           Player WAR/pos Year Age  Tm
1     Chipper Jones     7.9 2007  35 ATL
2       Jim Edmonds     6.8 2005  35 STL
3     Chipper Jones     6.6 2008  36 ATL
4       Derek Jeter     6.5 2009  35 NYY
5     Manny Ramirez     6.2 2008  36 TOT
6       Casey Blake     6.1 2009  35 LAD
7      Larry Walker     5.9 2002  35 COL
8      Jorge Posada     5.8 2007  35 NYY
9    Edgar Martinez     5.7 2000  37 SEA
10   Edgar Martinez     5.5 2001  38 SEA
11      Ellis Burks     5.5 2000  35 SFG
12    Ichiro Suzuki     5.4 2009  35 SEA
13    Lance Berkman     5.2 2011  35 STL
14   Gary Sheffield     5.0 2005  36 NYY
15       Carlos Lee     4.6 2011  35 HOU
16        Jim Thome     4.6 2006  35 CHW
17     Mark McGwire     4.5 2000  36 STL
18     Johnny Damon     4.4 2009  35 NYY
19        Jeff Kent     4.4 2005  37 LAD
20    Ichiro Suzuki     4.3 2010  36 SEA

[dominik]

Will Clark 7 season at 140-175 OPS+, career 58 WAR
Reggie Smith 7 seasons at 140-171 OPS+, career 63 WAR
Jack Clark 7 seasons at 140-176 OPS+, career 55 WAR
Braun 3 seasons at 140-166 OPS+, career 22 WAR

The first 3 are saying hi with their HoF votes: 4.4% one and done, .7% one and done, 1.5% one and done.

17 regular players are playing TODAY with career averages of 136+ in OPS+. Excluding 4 I think due to PEDS, that leaves 13. A career 140 OPS+ leaves a player in the pack where having no speed, playing an easy position, and having no noticeable records or peaks hurts.

Again, he could get in IF he can sustain a 145 OPS+ career and has a long career...but to do that he will need some large peaks that we haven't seen.

I said 170+ not 140-170

[dominik]

1) I'm not sure how simply I can explain this: I did not say he needs a 185+ OPS+ to get into the hall of fame. I said he would likely need that in order to make sure his overall OPS+ does not drop too low during the course of his career. I was talking about how to keep his CAREER OPS+ higher. No one especially me has said that anyone has to achieve a particular thing in one particular season in order to make it into the HoF.

2) If you have facts to show that overall career OPS+ is flat in ages up through age 27 to the period after age 27, by all means post it. I think that it will be proven to be false, but again that is really not the question. I was not discussing all the players who play baseball, nor all the players who play today. I was talking about one player: Braun. It's not his fault or my fault he was not in the majors until age 23. He SHOULD have been playing by age 21, but that's as it is. Regardless, I portrayed several scenarios for him to explain my point. By all means, post yours or edit mine.

3) I'm completely confused why the mention of ARod (an excellent sbhortstop with speed with 106 homers, 352 RBI and 21 WAR by age 22) and Griffey (an excellent center fielder with speed with 87 homers, 344 RBI and 20 WAR by age 22) to Braun (a below average left fielder with good speed and 0 plate appearances by age 22.) Braun is so far off the map compared to these 2 it's insane. Yes, if he wants to show up at the dance, 2 hours late missing some of the bells and whistles, he's going to have to make up some ground some where.

Top 10 OPS+
through age 27 end of career

ruth 213 206
williams 195 190
bonds (roids) 147 181
gehrig 179 178
hornsby 174 175
mantle 172 172
brother (19th century) 186 170
shoeless joe 177 169
cobb 182 168
ok there is a slight drop off but not much. with a normal career arc braun will finish above 140 OPS+ which would be well in HOF range.

None of the guys you mentioned had an MVP. A guy who finishes with a 140 OPS+ and wins an MVP with a normal career arc is going to make the hall, period.

the only MVPs who don't make it either have:
-an early decline
-season was a total fluke
-MVP totally undeserving

obviously neither is true for him. he is an perennial all star.

also it is not true that he has no other assets.

-he hits .300 every year
-100 RBI every year
-very fast runner with a lot of stolen bases

He definitely is on HOF pace. nobody cares about WAR in the HOF. the only thing he might lack would be counting stats but his rate stats and his achievements (MVP, ROY, AS every year, 100 RBI every year) all say HOF.

does that mean he will make it anyway? no! but if his career continues like this with a normal arc he will make it. we will see if he can do that.

[Sockeye]

Triple first 5 years			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
492	154	8.0	1.5
663	130	9.0	2.0
708	146	10.8	5.9
684	131	9.4	4.7
629	166	11.0	7.7
9528		144.6	65.4
			
Double first 5 years + decline			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	130	6.0	1.0
663	125	7.8	1.7
708	120	8.0	1.7
684	115	7.4	1.3
629	110	6.5	1.0
550	95	4.9	-0.5
500	95	4.5	-0.5
10578		132.2	49.3
			
Double first 5 years + decline			
with 2 great peaks			
PA	OPS+	wgt	WAR
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	130	8.1	2.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	131	8.5	4.7
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	154	7.2	1.5
663	185	11.6	10.0
708	146	9.8	5.9
684	185	12.0	10.0
629	166	9.9	7.7
492	130	6.0	1.0
663	125	7.8	1.7
708	120	8.0	1.7
684	115	7.4	1.3
629	110	6.5	1.0
550	95	4.9	-0.5
500	95	4.5	-0.5
10578		139.1	62.6

1) Just to clarify as it seems to have been cxonfusing, here is what my post was saying:
a) if you take Braun's first 5 years and just assume he doubles that again to 10 years, he looks like a solid HoF candidate. He is not CERTAIN to make it with 145 OPS+ and 65 WAR, because as we all know there are people who have not made it with comparable WAR, but I'd comfortably take odds on him getting in.
b) if on the other hand, you simply double his 5 years then, give him a decline phase from 32 to 39, his overall stats 132 OPS+ and 49 WAR look underwhelming. To explain what I mean, he falls neatly in that scenario between Strawberry and Will Clark (who was 137 OPS+ and 55 WAR, for comparison). I think that means he doesn't make it.
c) on the other hand, if we give him the same scenario ib b), but give him 2 peak years of 185 OPS+ (WAR of 10), he ends up at 139 OPS+ and almost 63 WAR. That elevates him to a candidate again, and given that he likely wins 1 or 2 more MVP awards with those 2 peak seaasons, I think he gets in, no problem.

That is if we only see a doubling of his numbers. Historically players put up better numbers during there prime (28-32) than they do from (23-27). It's also worth noting that in 2007 Ryan Braun played 3B, had 5.0 oWAR in 113 games, but -3.5 dWAR which gave him a total of only 1.5 WAR. His dWAR has improved every year (-1.5, -0.6, 0.1, 0.6) He's now one of the better defensive LFers in baseball. So if we were to exactly double his numbers we would have to assume a repeat of his 2007 season which is very unlikely that he'll move back to 3B or aquire -3.5 WAR playing LF. So that in itself skews the results of such an assumption. What I believe is more realistic to expect is that Braun will put up WAR totals much more similar to that of 2009-11. Where he has averaged 6.1 WAR per season. Apply that to his next 5 seasons and you get 30.5 + 21.8 = 52.3 through age 32. How good is that among HOF LFers? Lets see

Ted Williams 86.2
Rickey Henderson 85.9
Carl Yastrzemski 64.0
Ed Delahanty 59.8
Al Simmons 56.5
Jesse Burkett 55.4
Joe Kelley 54.8
Joe Medwick 54.7
Goose Goslin 54.2
Ryan Braun 52.3
Fred Clarke 46.8
Ralph Kiner 45.9
Heinie Manush 42.6
Billy Williams 41.6
Jim Rice 36.3
Zack Wheat 35.2
Lou Brock 31.4
Willie Stargell 31.0
Chick Hafey 28.6

There are only 3 LFers in history that has done that who aren't yet in the HOF.

Barry Bonds 94.1
Sherry Magee 56.2
Tim Raines 54.8

Another interesting thing to look at when considering his potential HOF case.

Black Ink = 9 (252)
Gray Ink = 82 (287)
HOF Monitor = 80 (237)
HOF Standards = 29 (341)

That is where he stands right now after only 5 seasons. If you even so much as assume he only doubles each of those numbers that gives him

Black Ink = 18 (125)
Gray Ink = 164 (68)
HOF Monitor = 160 (74)
HOF Standards = 58 (37)

[Sockeye]

8 seasons will not do it. The counting stats, WAR (around 57) in particular will be too low. The quality stats will be good, but they are not substantive enough to sway voters who want big numbers. 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 145 and WAR of 57 is not overwhelming; it's marginal. If it were 170 OPS+ and 57 WAR it would be a much better argument.

8 more seasons like his last 3 would however! That would give him 70.6 WAR through age 35. Still if I had to offer a guess barring injury I'd say he'll have around 61.3 WAR through age 35. Good enough to make him deserving at that point.

I did not say he need to have 2 185+ seasons because HoF have 185+ seaasons. I said he needs those to make sure his decline phase OPS+ drops will not drop his overall average too low. It is not relevant what 133 of the 162 position players have done. Some of those are catchers, some are shortstops, some are center fielders, third baseman or second basemen. Some of them have amazing foot speed and stolen base feats, while some others were arguably leaders on their teams. Some of course don't deserve to be in the hall at all. Once you cut those out of the picture, the story changes.

Fair enough. So about this then. Of the 104 HOFers who spent seasons at LF, RF, 1B, or DH. Only 24 of them had so much as one season with a 185 OPS+ or higher (23%) Conclusion 185 OPS+ seasons are extremely rare even among HOFers playing elite offensive positions. Ryan Braun stole 33 bases this season and I'd consider him a team leader. Storyline really doesn't change all that much!

It doesn't matter what age they achieved it. Why a fixation over age 27? The voters don't care what someone did at 27. Or 26. Or 31. It's the career and the peaks that influence the voting. not the achievement of 166 OPS+ at age 27. Bruan plays the second easiest position on the field with zero foot speed and marginal defense. He doesn't get kudos for being better than 64% other players who played harder positions with better speed or better defense. If that was the argument, then there are boatloads of DH, first basemen and left fielders that should be in the hall.

Have you ever even looked at Ryan Braun's stats or watched him play? Your statement here forces me to ask. Zero footspeed? He stole 33 bases in 39 attempts this year and has 96 stolen bases with an 80% success rate for his career. I'd hardly call that zero footspeed. His fielding % as a LFer is .995 compared to the league average of .984. His RF/P and RF/G are both higher than the league averages. He also had the 5th highest WAR runs Fielding among LFers in 2011. It's unfair to compare Ryan Braun's best season to other HOFer who have had much better seasons but didn't have them until later ages. Ryan Braun hasn't played yet at age 28, 29, 30, 31, etc. So how can one suggest that he won't have still a better season at 28-32? The only "fair" way to compare Braun to other HOFers is to look at what they had done to the same age.

I agree, but I didn't suggest he will decline at 28-32, although it does happen.

So we are in agreement there.

If he retires at 32, he does not get into the hall. That's my opinion. You aren't getting in on 322 home runs and 1,062 RBI. Voters don't vote on your average per season. They vote on career totals and peaks. They give you slack MAYBE if you have a severe injury or have massive peaks. In Braun's best year he was not the best in the league.

Again we find common ground. I concur that if Braun Retired at age 32 with 322 home runs and 1062 RBI to go along with a 145 OPS+ that he is not a HOFer nor should he be.

I don't want to debate data you have that I can't see. I don't agree that final OPS+ numbers WILL end up higher by the end of someone's career from age 27 on. It does so IF you select people in a way that their stats do that. If you exclude people whose careers don't fit the definition of the group you want to study, then of course, everyone's stats will go up.

The players in the sample group were not cherry picked. I believe the sample to be an accurate one. You also reversed what I said. I said that a players career OPS DECLINES by an average of 5 points from what it was through age 27. Not increases as you just misreported.

Just as a reminder, I haven't said Braun should or should not make it to the hall, only speculated on what it would take for him to get there. There's little doubt that as of today (11/30/11) that Braun, Votto, Cabrera and Fielder are all equally showing the talent to possibly make it. They are all of similar age and have solid years under their belts. I just don't believe that all 4 will make it because history tells us, that it doesn't work out that way.

Cabrera is a virtual lock. Fielder has a similar case to Braun at this point. Might actually give Braun slightly better odds. Votto got a late start and isn't yet on a HOF pace. Not to say that he can't make up the ground. But he has some catching up to do. Of those 4 I'd rank them. 1. Cabrera, 2. Braun, 3. Fielder, 4. Votto