View Poll Results: Will Ryan Braun make the HOF?

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  • Yes, his numbers will be deserving of a place in the HOF

    17 27.42%
  • No, his numbers will not merit HOF induction

    45 72.58%
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Thread: Ryan Braun

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    this season was a step into the right direction.

    he needs to walk more though. he walks like ichiro but he is a power hitter. To me a power hitter must walk way more than 70 times a year even if prince fielder hits behind him. 58 walks is pathetic for a guy that lead the league in slugging.
    This is kind of bizarre logic. You want your power hitters who lead the league in slugging to walk more? Shouldn't you want them to swing the bat more? If he can bat .330 and slug .600 while swinging away, why should he stop doing so?

    The better a hitter is, then the better it is for the other team if he walks, rather than swings away. This is why the best hitters are often pitched around and intentionally walked.

    As far as being halfway to the hall of fame....no. He needs to continue at his 2011 level, or have a good decline after age 32. If we give him 5 years exactly like his first 5, that puts him at age 32, with around 320 home runs, 1060 RBI, and a 145 OPS+. That is very similar to what guys like Mcgriff, Delgado, Belle, and Berkman were at the same age. None of them are likely to make the hall of fame.
    Last edited by willshad; 10-08-2011 at 02:19 AM.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by willshad View Post
    This is kind of bizarre logic. You want your power hitters who lead the league in slugging to walk more? Shouldn't you want them to swing the bat more? If he can bat .330 and slug .600 while swinging away, why should he stop doing so?

    The better a hitter is, then the better it is for the other team if he walks, rather than swings away. This is why the best hitters are often pitched around and intentionally walked.

    As far as being halfway to the hall of fame....no. He needs to continue at his 2011 level, or have a good decline after age 32. If we give him 5 years exactly like his first 5, that puts him at age 32, with around 320 home runs, 1060 RBI, and a 145 OPS+. That is very similar to what guys like Mcgriff, Delgado, Belle, and Berkman were at the same age. None of them are likely to make the hall of fame.
    Normal progression indicates his numbers should improve during his age 28-32 seasons. Not enough to make him deserving of HOF by age 32 but his numbers should more than double over his next 5 seasons with an even higher OPS+. McGriff and Delgado are both deserving and Berkman likely will be in 2 years. Braun is on pace to be better than any of them.
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  3. #43
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    Well won't this MVP award look good on his HOF resume!
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  4. #44
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    Yeah, Zoilo Versailles' MVP got him in on the first ballot!

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Well won't this MVP award look good on his HOF resume!
    A classic age-27 season, never to be repeated.

    By the time Braun is on the HOF ballot, MVP awards will matter even less than they do now. Especially this kind of award, where he was not his league's best player.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  6. #46
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    --I thinks its a bit premature to call this a career year. It may well turn out that way, but its very possible he will have several years at the same level or even a better one before he starts to decline. Also, while I agree he was not the league's best player he wasn't far off and his selection is hardly going to be remembered as one of the really bad choices. Actually Id say the best player this year, Matt Kemp, is the guy who had a career year he is unlikely to repeat.

  7. #47
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    Right, Mark, I can't predict the future. I'm just stating the most likely scenario.

    As for the MVP, he may have been the league's 2nd best player. But add his name to the list "Players that didn't deserve their MVP award"; that's how it will be remembered.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  8. #48
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    I see Braun as a HOFer, barring an unforseen injury, and, to be honest, I can't understand the skepticism. Braun's 2011 season, in which he won the NL MVP, was a season not out of context with the rest of his career. Braun posted his best season in 2011, and it was his best by a significant amount, but it was not a fluke season by any means. Indeed, given Braun's age in 2011 (27), it is well within what one would project for Braun; he's taken his career to a new level that is reasonable for him to approach again and again over the next 4-5 years.

    Braun is doing what HOFers who play LF do. He's won awards (2007 NL ROY, 2011 NL MVP). He's been on the All-Star team the last 4 years in a row. His BA is .312, and he averages over 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs per year, so he's not offensively overmatched for his position. He's the best player on a team that makes the postseason. These are the sort of things HOF left fielders do, and Braun does them. His OWP this year was .799; that's outstanding. His OWP for his career is .712, and that's HOF norm for a player at the left end of the defensive spectrum.

    I also can't agree that Braun "didn't deserve the MVP award" in 2011. A case can be made for Matt Kemp being more deserving if you factor in his Gold Glove for CF, but Braun was the superior offensive player to Kemp; indeed, he posted the best offensive season of any player in the NL if you go by OWP. I can understand a vote for Kemp for MVP, but I can also understand not voting for Kemp in rememberance of his poor attitude in 2010 that cost the Dodgers. Braun may or may not have been the best player in the NL, but a strong case can be made that he was, and it's a matter of there being more than one deserving candidate, but only one award.
    "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    A classic age-27 season, never to be repeated.
    I agree, he'll never be 27 again. But an MVP is an MVP. Andre Dawson didn't deserve his MVP either, but I doubt he would have been elected without it.
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  10. #50
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    Through age 27 season

    Willie Stargell: 653 games, 9.8 WAR
    Chick Hafey: 690 games, 16.4 WAR
    Zack Wheat: 874 games, 16.8 WAR
    Billy Williams: 822 games, 19.7 WAR
    Max Carey: 1040 games, 20.3 WAR
    Ryan Braun: 729 games, 21.8 WAR
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Fuzzy Bear View Post
    I see Braun as a HOFer, barring an unforseen injury, and, to be honest, I can't understand the skepticism. Braun's 2011 season, in which he won the NL MVP, was a season not out of context with the rest of his career. Braun posted his best season in 2011, and it was his best by a significant amount, but it was not a fluke season by any means. Indeed, given Braun's age in 2011 (27), it is well within what one would project for Braun; he's taken his career to a new level that is reasonable for him to approach again and again over the next 4-5 years.

    Braun is doing what HOFers who play LF do. He's won awards (2007 NL ROY, 2011 NL MVP). He's been on the All-Star team the last 4 years in a row. His BA is .312, and he averages over 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs per year, so he's not offensively overmatched for his position. He's the best player on a team that makes the postseason. These are the sort of things HOF left fielders do, and Braun does them. His OWP this year was .799; that's outstanding. His OWP for his career is .712, and that's HOF norm for a player at the left end of the defensive spectrum.

    I also can't agree that Braun "didn't deserve the MVP award" in 2011. A case can be made for Matt Kemp being more deserving if you factor in his Gold Glove for CF, but Braun was the superior offensive player to Kemp; indeed, he posted the best offensive season of any player in the NL if you go by OWP. I can understand a vote for Kemp for MVP, but I can also understand not voting for Kemp in rememberance of his poor attitude in 2010 that cost the Dodgers. Braun may or may not have been the best player in the NL, but a strong case can be made that he was, and it's a matter of there being more than one deserving candidate, but only one award.
    I don't know OWP but is it considering park factor?

    I ask this because dodger stadium is a black hole for hitters. Kemps OPS+ is actually 5 points higher then Brauns.

    Sorry for the OT, I think that braun is on a good way to HOF. He doesn't need to repeat this season but he does need to keep it on a high level till his mid 30s to make it because he is not exactly an early starter. not unreasonable to think that he has a good shot of doing this though.

    But he should increase his walk rate as he gets older. most very well aging players that keep performing into their mid to late 30s increse their walk rate as they get older to compensate somewhat for a falling BA. If they can't it can get ugly because a .280 hitter that walks 50 times is quite useless.

    I think it's a good sign that he walked a career high 58 times but still this is not enough of course. he should walks 75 times or so.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Through age 27 season

    Willie Stargell: 653 games, 9.8 WAR
    Chick Hafey: 690 games, 16.4 WAR
    Zack Wheat: 874 games, 16.8 WAR
    Billy Williams: 822 games, 19.7 WAR
    Max Carey: 1040 games, 20.3 WAR
    Ryan Braun: 729 games, 21.8 WAR
    I like cherries too! How about:
    Code:
    Player              WAR/pos    G
    Jim Wynn               31.2  862
    Darryl Strawberry      31.2  957
    Rusty Staub            31.2 1313
    Charlie Keller         30.8  682
    Ben Chapman            29.7 1007
    Don Mattingly          29.5  857
    Keith Hernandez        29.4  950
    Mike Tiernan           29.1  959
    Jose Canseco           28.6  972
    Jack Clark             28.1  987
    Johnny Callison        27.9 1095
    Reggie Smith           27.8  899
    Rocky Colavito         27.5  845
    Elbie Fletcher         26.9 1076
    Stuffy McInnis         26.4 1159
    Ed Konetchy            26.1  982
    Roger Maris            26.1  842
    Pete Browning          25.6  713
    Fred Lynn              25.5  718
    Bobby Murcer           25.4  802
    Oyster Burns           25.3  900
    Hal Trosky             25.2 1035
    Willie Davis           25.2 1058
    Chet Lemon             25.1  910
    Willie Wilson          25.0  842
    Paul Blair             24.5  976
    Jesse Barfield         24.4  874
    Dave Parker            24.4  720
    Del Ennis              24.3 1034
    Benny Kauff            24.3  602
    Lenny Dykstra          24.0  783
    Paul Hines             24.0  697
    Roy White              23.3  797
    Ginger Beaumont        23.1  806
    Mike Donlin            23.0  677
    Eric Davis             22.8  640
    Danny Green            22.8  811
    Curt Flood             22.7 1149
    Fred McGriff           22.6  731
    George Burns           22.6  801
    Andy Van Slyke         22.1  832
    Clyde Milan            22.0 1027
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    I like cherries too! How about:
    Code:
    Player              WAR/pos    G
    Jim Wynn               31.2  862
    Darryl Strawberry      31.2  957
    Rusty Staub            31.2 1313
    Charlie Keller         30.8  682
    Ben Chapman            29.7 1007
    Don Mattingly          29.5  857
    Keith Hernandez        29.4  950
    Mike Tiernan           29.1  959
    Jose Canseco           28.6  972
    Jack Clark             28.1  987
    Johnny Callison        27.9 1095
    Reggie Smith           27.8  899
    Rocky Colavito         27.5  845
    Elbie Fletcher         26.9 1076
    Stuffy McInnis         26.4 1159
    Ed Konetchy            26.1  982
    Roger Maris            26.1  842
    Pete Browning          25.6  713
    Fred Lynn              25.5  718
    Bobby Murcer           25.4  802
    Oyster Burns           25.3  900
    Hal Trosky             25.2 1035
    Willie Davis           25.2 1058
    Chet Lemon             25.1  910
    Willie Wilson          25.0  842
    Paul Blair             24.5  976
    Jesse Barfield         24.4  874
    Dave Parker            24.4  720
    Del Ennis              24.3 1034
    Benny Kauff            24.3  602
    Lenny Dykstra          24.0  783
    Paul Hines             24.0  697
    Roy White              23.3  797
    Ginger Beaumont        23.1  806
    Mike Donlin            23.0  677
    Eric Davis             22.8  640
    Danny Green            22.8  811
    Curt Flood             22.7 1149
    Fred McGriff           22.6  731
    George Burns           22.6  801
    Andy Van Slyke         22.1  832
    Clyde Milan            22.0 1027
    Ahh well since you like cherries so well here are a few more for you.

    WAR during age 27 season

    Lloyd Waner -0.5
    Jim Rice 1.2
    Willie Stargell 1.9
    Lou Brock 2.4
    Fred Clarke 2.8
    Zack Wheat 3.1
    Heinie Manush 3.6
    Chick Hafey 4.1
    Joe Medwick 4.1
    Harmon Killebrew 4.3
    Ralph Kiner 4.7
    Frank Robinson 4.9
    Joe Kelley 5.4
    Jesse Burkett 6.1
    Babe Ruth 6.2
    Goose Goslin 6.8
    Ed Delahanty 7.5
    Al Simmons 7.6
    Ryan Braun 7.7
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Ahh well since you like cherries so well here are a few more for you.

    WAR during age 27 season
    Of course, the point is that there are a lot more non-HOFers with +22 WAR thru age 27 than there are legit HOFers with less than 22 WAR thru age 27.

    Your 2nd cherry list shows that many HOFers didn't have their best season at age 27. Great.

    Here are a few non-HOFers who had an as good or better age-27 season than Braun:
    Code:
    Player       WAR/pos Year
    Jouett Meekin   10.9 1894
    Jack Coombs      9.7 1910
    Russ Ford        9.5 1910
    Wes Ferrell      9.1 1935
    Chuck Knoblauch  8.8 1996
    Ron Guidry       8.5 1978
    Fred Lynn        8.4 1979
    Darrell Porter   8.4 1979
    Pat Hentgen      8.4 1996
    Lenny Dykstra    8.3 1990
    Mel Parnell      8.2 1949
    Jim Wynn         8.1 1969
    Harvey Haddix    8.0 1953
    Rocky Colavito   7.9 1961
    Kenny Lofton     7.7 1994
    Kevin Mitchell   7.7 1989
    Sam McDowell     7.7 1970
    Mike Donlin      7.6 1905
    Nap Rucker       7.6 1912
    George Uhle      7.5 1926
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    Of course, the point is that there are a lot more non-HOFers with +22 WAR thru age 27 than there are legit HOFers with less than 22 WAR thru age 27.

    Your 2nd cherry list shows that many HOFers didn't have their best season at age 27. Great.

    Here are a few non-HOFers who had an as good or better age-27 season than Braun:
    Code:
    Player       WAR/pos Year
    Jouett Meekin   10.9 1894
    Jack Coombs      9.7 1910
    Russ Ford        9.5 1910
    Wes Ferrell      9.1 1935
    Chuck Knoblauch  8.8 1996
    Ron Guidry       8.5 1978
    Fred Lynn        8.4 1979
    Darrell Porter   8.4 1979
    Pat Hentgen      8.4 1996
    Lenny Dykstra    8.3 1990
    Mel Parnell      8.2 1949
    Jim Wynn         8.1 1969
    Harvey Haddix    8.0 1953
    Rocky Colavito   7.9 1961
    Kenny Lofton     7.7 1994
    Kevin Mitchell   7.7 1989
    Sam McDowell     7.7 1970
    Mike Donlin      7.6 1905
    Nap Rucker       7.6 1912
    George Uhle      7.5 1926
    Your post is comical. So many things in need of correcting I hardly know where to begin. Okay first off the fact that you've had to go to including pitchers from the 1800's as a way to increase your list size only proves my point even more. Secondly my list included ONLY HOF LFers!!! There are exactly 20 players in the HOF that played at least 50% of their games in LF at age 27, 18 (90%) of which had a lower WAR total during their age 27 season than Ryan Braun. Of the 155 HOF position players playing in the majors at age 27 only 26 (16.8%) had a better season (according to WAR) 128 (82.6%) had a lower WAR total during there age 27 season. Duke Snider had an identical 7.7 WAR total.

    The reason that I only limited the list to HOF LFers. First Ryan Braun plays LF so it stands to reason that he should be compared to other LFers and second I didn't feel like taking the time to list all 128 HOFers with a worse age 27 season. I assumed anyone looking at the list could figure out that is what the list was of.

    You want some more numbers? Alright how about this.... Of the 4432 position players in the majors that were active at age 27, exactly 37 had a higher WAR total at age 27 than Ryan Braun, 4 others had exactly 7.7 WAR, that leaves 4391 position players with a lower age 27 WAR total. That is 99.07% Sorry but I'm not going to list all 4391 players. Hate to disappoint you!

    And that my friend is the WHOLE CHERRY PIE!!
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    He's 26 and has played 4 seasons. I know it's very early on his career but I'd like to get some thoughts on his career so far and his future HOF chances.
    1) His current numbers are very nice, but there is no obvious HoF potential yet. He needs a lot more years at this level. If we assume 10 more years that equal the first 5, then we get to HoF numbers.
    2) How can he get 10 more years like the first 5? He will have a decline after age 31-32, as all ML sluggers (all people in fact!) do suffer due to reduced speed, nagging injuries, normal aging in eyesight, etc. So he needs to have at least 3 years peaking higher than we have seen to offset the decline he will experience after age 32. At least 3 OPS+ seasons of around 185-195+ will be needed.
    3) How likely is it that he will have 3 years like that (185-195+), given his best is 166 now? It's less than 50/50. Why? Because most players have their 5 best years between ages 20-39, but 40% of those happen before age 28. (No one has their best 5 between 28-35.) Thus, we have likely seen 2 of his best 5 years, but it's not likely that we saw his 4th and 5th best season, while he has yet to have his 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.. While it's possible that he could have his 3 best years after after age 27, it's not very likely, given the averages. This makes it more difficult for him to sustain his quality stats over the next 10 years to match the prior 5 years.

    http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/designated_hitter/

    4) So what? So the next 5 years are critical to his chances because this is now where he is almost constrained to show higher peaks. If he can collect at least 2 seasons much better than this one (e.g., 185-195+) and do well in the rest, he will have an excellent chance to go to the hall. If he meanders between 130-160 the next 5 years, or misses most of a season or two due to injury, then his chances drop drastically.
    5) Why? Because meandering means that all of his peak seasons were in the 145-166 range and, by the age of 37, his career OPS+ will drop to the 130's or lower. He will then have to keep playing well into his thirties to accumulate the counting stats to make up for falling quality stats.

    He can still make it if he plays well into his 30's, the issues become: does he stay healthy? does he decline too fast? Career OPS+ values of 145 or more have a far better chance at the HoF than those around 130, UNLESS there is something ELSE great to back it up (awards, records, championships, base running, defensive wizardry, great relationships with votes, etc.)
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 11-29-2011 at 04:21 PM.

  17. #57
    For some reason I've never really took an interest in Braun, perhaps because I've felt that he had gotten too overhyped earlier on. But putting that aside, he's proven to be one of the most consistent players over the past five years. That along with his great swing mechanics suggests to me that he won't be slowing down any time soon. He's definitely on HOF pace, and I'd place my bets that he'll make it in eventually.
    "Age is a question of mind over matter--if you don't mind, it doesn't matter."
    -Satchel Paige

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsuriyop View Post
    For some reason I've never really took an interest in Braun, perhaps because I've felt that he had gotten too overhyped earlier on. But putting that aside, he's proven to be one of the most consistent players over the past five years. That along with his great swing mechanics suggests to me that he won't be slowing down any time soon. He's definitely on HOF pace, and I'd place my bets that he'll make it in eventually.
    I completely agree with you. He hits for power, he hits for average, he doesn't embarrass himself in the field or on the base paths, and he just won the MVP. I like what I've seen so far.
    Last edited by ol' aches and pains; 11-30-2011 at 05:32 AM. Reason: Because I care...
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  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sockeye View Post
    Your post is comical. So many things in need of correcting I hardly know where to begin. Okay first off the fact that you've had to go to including pitchers from the 1800's as a way to increase your list size only proves my point even more. Secondly my list included ONLY HOF LFers!!! There are exactly 20 players in the HOF that played at least 50% of their games in LF at age 27, 18 (90%) of which had a lower WAR total during their age 27 season than Ryan Braun. Of the 155 HOF position players playing in the majors at age 27 only 26 (16.8%) had a better season (according to WAR) 128 (82.6%) had a lower WAR total during there age 27 season. Duke Snider had an identical 7.7 WAR total.

    The reason that I only limited the list to HOF LFers. First Ryan Braun plays LF so it stands to reason that he should be compared to other LFers and second I didn't feel like taking the time to list all 128 HOFers with a worse age 27 season. I assumed anyone looking at the list could figure out that is what the list was of.

    You want some more numbers? Alright how about this.... Of the 4432 position players in the majors that were active at age 27, exactly 37 had a higher WAR total at age 27 than Ryan Braun, 4 others had exactly 7.7 WAR, that leaves 4391 position players with a lower age 27 WAR total. That is 99.07% Sorry but I'm not going to list all 4391 players. Hate to disappoint you!

    And that my friend is the WHOLE CHERRY PIE!!
    So very like you to miss the point. This focus on comparison of players' age-27 season is of little meaning. The question is: Is he likely to have a better season?

    There are 20 LF in the HOF. Most had a better peak season than Braun's season:

    12.2 Yastrzemski
    11.8 T. Williams
    11.5 Musial
    10.0 Henderson
    9.3 Delahanty
    9.2 Burkett
    8.9 Medwick
    8.1 Stargell
    8.1 Kiner
    8.0 J. Kelley
    8.0 Simmons
    7.5 Manush (7.9 schedule adjusted)
    6.6 Clarke (8.1 schedule adjusted)

    Most players who have a peak season of 7.7 do not make the HOF. Most players who have an established 5 WAR level of play before age 27 do not go on to put together a string of 7+ WAR seasons; right now, that 7.7 season stands out as a fluke season.

    I agree that Braun had a great season (although he was not his league's best player). Nobody would dispute that. The question is how likely is he to maintain that level? It's possible, but history says the odds are against Braun doing it. That's my point. (drstrangelove makes the same point in a different way.)

    It will be interesting to watch his progress in the coming years.
    Last edited by Freakshow; 11-29-2011 at 09:27 PM.
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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    1) His current numbers are very nice, but there is no obvious HoF potential yet. He needs a lot more years at this level. If we assume 10 more years that equal the first 5, then we get to HoF numbers.
    I would roughly agree with that conclusion. About 8 more seasons equal to his first should put him in HOF area.

    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    2) How can he get 10 more years like the first 5? He will have a decline after age 31-32, as all ML sluggers (all people in fact!) do suffer due to reduced speed, nagging injuries, normal aging in eyesight, etc. So he needs to have at least 3 years peaking higher than we have seen to offset the decline he will experience after age 32. At least 3 OPS+ seasons of around 185-195+ will be needed.
    All players to deline with age. You are however incorrect on the OPS+ number. Of the 162 position players in the HOF only 11 had 2+ seasons with a 185 OPS+ or higher. 18 others had exactly one season with an OPS+ of 185 or higher. That leaves 133 of the 162 position players in the HOF that NEVER had even one 185 OPS+ season. So why would Ryan Braun need to do something 3 times that 80% of HOFers were unable to do even once? Why does he have to be that much better than the historic HOFer?

    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    3) How likely is it that he will have 3 years like that (185-195+), given his best is 166 now? It's less than 50/50. Why? Because most players have their 5 best years between ages 20-39, but 40% of those happen before age 28. (No one has their best 5 between 28-35.) Thus, we have likely seen 2 of his best 5 years, but it's not likely that we saw his 4th and 5th best season, while he has yet to have his 1st, 2nd and 3rd best.. While it's possible that he could have his 3 best years after after age 27, it's not very likely, given the averages. This makes it more difficult for him to sustain his quality stats over the next 10 years to match the prior 5 years.
    As I showed above he doesn't need 3 seasons with a 185 OPS+. Lets look at his career thus far compared to the other HOFers. Only 40 of the 162 position players in the HOF had a season with a 166 OPS+ or better by age 27. Another 19 players didn't acheive their first 166 OPS+ season until after age 27. Only 59 of the 162 had a career best OPS+ of 166 or higher. 103 never reached that level! So even if this turned out to be a career year for Ryan Braun it is already best than the career best season of 103 of the 162 position players in the HOF (64%)

    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    4) So what? So the next 5 years are critical to his chances because this is now where he is almost constrained to show higher peaks. If he can collect at least 2 seasons much better than this one (e.g., 185-195+) and do well in the rest, he will have an excellent chance to go to the hall. If he meanders between 130-160 the next 5 years, or misses most of a season or two due to injury, then his chances drop drastically.
    The age 28-32 seasons are always crucial to any players chances of making that HOF. 5 more seasons in the 130-160 range or if he matches the 145 OPS+ number that he put up over his first 5 seasons will keep him very much on a HOF pace. The only thing that would derail his chances are injuries or a serious decline in production. Unlikely for a player at the age of 28-32.


    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    5) Why? Because meandering means that all of his peak seasons were in the 145-166 range and, by the age of 37, his career OPS+ will drop to the 130's or lower. He will then have to keep playing well into his thirties to accumulate the counting stats to make up for falling quality stats.
    For the sake of ease lets say his numbers are exactly the same over his next 5 season that they were for his first 5. That would give him 1012 runs, 1796 hits, 374 doubles, 52 triples, 322 home runs, 1062 RBI, 192 stolen bases, .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+ through age 32. That's an average of 101 runs, 180 hits, 37 doubles, 5 triples, 32 home runs, 106 RBI, and 19 stolen bases a season to go along with his .312 AVG, .371 OBP, .563 SLG, 145 OPS+. Even if he decided to retire at that point he'd have a fair argument from a short productive career case. It's more likely he'll continue to play into his mid to late 30's. Adding to his counting totals while his production numbers decline. If he plays long enough to have his OPS+ drop into the 130's then his counting totals will be high enough that it counters the drop in production. There are only 37 players in the HOF with a OPS+ of 140 or higher. So that still puts him in pretty elite company from a production stand point.

    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    He can still make it if he plays well into his 30's, the issues become: does he stay healthy? does he decline too fast? Career OPS+ values of 145 or more have a far better chance at the HoF than those around 130, UNLESS there is something ELSE great to back it up (awards, records, championships, base running, defensive wizardry, great relationships with votes, etc.)
    On average according to my research a players career OPS through age 27 is only .005 points higher than their final career OPS numbers. Braun's current OPS is .933 so if he has the usual trajectory his should finish his career with around a .928 OPS. The probably keeps his OPS+ in the 144 range.

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