Ryan Braun

[Cowtipper]

Updated career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

1,901 G
8,327 PA
7,511 AB
1,318 R
2,363 H
493 2B
59 3B
384 HR
1,354 RBI
247 SB
61 CS
668 BB
1,392 K
.315 BA

[Cougar]

Updated career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

1,901 G
8,327 PA
7,511 AB
1,318 R
2,363 H
493 2B
59 2B
384 HR
1,354 RBI
247 SB
61 CS
668 BB
1,392 K

I don't know if that's a HOF line in this day-and-age, especially for a slugging corner OF. And that's ignoring the controversial failed test, which some people are unfazed by and others are up in arms.

Does BJ's Favorite Toy produce rate stats?

[dominik]

he better finds a very good explanation for this test. otherwise no chance if you see how much better cheaters are treated.

[jjpm74]

Updated career projections, using Bill James' Favorite Toy:

1,901 G
8,327 PA
7,511 AB
1,318 R
2,363 H
493 2B
59 3B
384 HR
1,354 RBI
247 SB
61 CS
668 BB
1,392 K
.315 BA

I tend to question the motives of the person bumping these threads when they bump 10 of them in one day.

Here is the direct link to Bill James' favorite toy for anyone who wants to look at the myriad of average players currently active though out the various levels of professional baseball and see where their careers can potentially go:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames

[Cowtipper]

I tend to question the motives of the person bumping these threads when they bump 10 of them in one day.

Here is the direct link to Bill James' favorite toy for anyone who wants to look at the myriad of average players currently active though out the various levels of professional baseball and see where their careers can potentially go:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames

The motive was boredom.

[Cougar]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/0...rade+Rumors%29

Appeal successful; suspension overturned!!

[PVNICK]

The report says it was because the chain of custody was broken ie: test prosessor incompetence. So the mystery remains. Did he fail anyway or was the sample tampered with (which is why you have to prove the chain of custody every step of the way). Can he shoot whoever let the news out since he can never get his reputation back and "legally" he is "innocent."

[jalbright]

The report says it was because the chain of custody was broken ie: test prosessor incompetence. So the mystery remains. Did he fail anyway or was the sample tampered with (which is why you have to prove the chain of custody every step of the way). Can he shoot whoever let the news out since he can never get his reputation back and "legally" he is "innocent."

He's not allowed to shoot that jerk, of course. If we allowed the shooting of people who acted like jerks, the bodies would pile up fast. He could sue MLB if he wanted to, but unless he is truly innocent rather than not guilty due to a technicality, he wouldn't want to do that. If he did, MLB and/or the perpetrator, if he/she could be ID'd, would almost have to contest how much this report unfairly damaged Braun's reputation, which would be the main element determining how much money he'd win. If it's true he juiced, the damage would likely be seen as minimal. If he didn't, the damage is rather significant.

[Cougar]

I think Braun should revert to the same benefit-of-the-doubt as every other player in MLB at this point.

Who knows how many vials of urine were in that guy's refrigerator? Maybe they got mixed up, maybe it was tampered with, maybe, maybe, maybe,...

All we know for certain is that MLB screwed up the chain of custody, and screwed up worse when the results of the test leaked.

Regardless, Braun has been punished enough if he's guilty with the damage to his reputation, and if he's innocent he has suffered a grievous wrong.

[hairmetalfreek]

Great job by Bud Selig protecting his Brewers players.

[EdTarbusz]

I think Braun should revert to the same benefit-of-the-doubt as every other player in MLB at this point.

.

I don't know how any MLB player could get the benefit of the doubt regarding PEDs. I'm extremely skeptical of any MLB player who denies using PEDs.

[jalbright]

I don't know how any MLB player could get the benefit of the doubt regarding PEDs. I'm extremely skeptical of any MLB player who denies using PEDs.

While I understand the skepticism on Braun under the circumstances, what you said above means you're skeptical of everyone who's been asked the question, which is most of them. IMHO, that's not right.

[Cougar]

I don't know how any MLB player could get the benefit of the doubt regarding PEDs. I'm extremely skeptical of any MLB player who denies using PEDs.

We've all got our individual ratios of trust and skepticism. You're more skeptical than I am, and that's OK. I just don't think we ought to be more or less trusting of Braun re. PEDs than we should be of, say, Matt Kemp. He's earned whatever benefit of the doubt Player X enjoys, which may be a lot or a little depending on the individual.

[jalbright]

We've all got our individual ratios of trust and skepticism. You're more skeptical than I am, and that's OK. I just don't think we ought to be more or less trusting of Braun re. PEDs than we should be of, say, Matt Kemp. He's earned whatever benefit of the doubt Player X enjoys, which may be a lot or a little depending on the individual.

In this case, I can't quite go that far. Braun was declared not guilty because MLB messed up. That entitles him to more deference than many named in the Mitchell report, for instance, but less than someone who has never had a positive test result. Now, if more comes out to discredit the MLB procedures, I might go as far as you, but on the record at this point, I wouldn't. OTOH, I'm not one to automatically exclude everyone who ever tested positive, either.

[EdTarbusz]

We've all got our individual ratios of trust and skepticism. You're more skeptical than I am, and that's OK. I just don't think we ought to be more or less trusting of Braun re. PEDs than we should be of, say, Matt Kemp. He's earned whatever benefit of the doubt Player X enjoys, which may be a lot or a little depending on the individual.

My level of trust of Kemp is the same as it is with Braun. I don't think any player is above suspicion.

[EdTarbusz]

While I understand the skepticism on Braun under the circumstances, what you said above means you're skeptical of everyone who's been asked the question, which is most of them. IMHO, that's not right.

I'm skeptical of every MLB player who has played since 1998. I'm not going to accuse a player of using but I doubt if I would believe a player who denied using after he tested positive.

[ol' aches and pains]

Can I change my vote?

[Biofury]

As been repeated countless times before, way too early to tell and almost ridiculous to predict, another cliche "Anything can happen".
Those rate statistics will definitely be dropping the longer his career goes, and I dont think he'll keep his .300 career average. Every player to have played the game has had several bad seasons (relative to their expected performance) which will certainly water down the numbers, well, except for Pujols and Gehrig, but them are only two people in a pool of thousands. I just pronounce "pool" twice there
He's already shown the ability to hit under 300 and post a mediocre on-base in a previous season.
If a player does post numbers like his year in and year out with a Steady Eddie like consistency around 20 years, then yea, HOF.

[Cowtipper]

He's having another thoroughly excellent year, but his relatively late start (age 23) may hurt him. He's past the 'magical' age 27 mark and the exit of his prime isn't too far away. He's going to have to age really well to become a Hall of Famer.

[Sockeye]

He's having another thoroughly excellent year, but his relatively late start (age 23) may hurt him. He's past the 'magical' age 27 mark and the exit of his prime isn't too far away. He's going to have to age really well to become a Hall of Famer.

He still has another 3-4 seasons of "prime" left. What do you consider "aging really well" to be? Say for instance from age 33 on?

A. .300 AVG, 200 HR, 600 RBI?
B. .295 AVG, 175 HR, 550 RBI?
C. .290 AVG, 150 HR, 500 RBI?
D. .285 AVG, 125 HR, 450 RBI?

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

The poll choices are too narrow. How can anyone know if a player's numbers will or will not merit induction if he hasn't even finished his 6th season? Albert Belle and Dale Murphy were good for a while, too, but I wouldn't put them in the HoF.