BBF Progressive HoF Election: 2006

**Brad Harris** · 11-24-2010, 06:58 AM

Originally Posted by BigRon

Brad, I think I've explained this about 20 times so far- maybe you haven't seen it. Fair or not, I only give 1st year votes to really top of the line candidates. Since we're up to about 2006 and our Hall's about 90% full, I only vote for guys in their 1st year if I believe they're somewhere in the top 8 or 9, maybe 10, at their position- maybe top 20 for pitchers. If they're no doubt HOFers, in my opinion, but a cut below, I'll start voting for them in year 2 or 3. If they're borderline, I'll wait longer.

Makes sense to me. Thanks for clarifying.

**Cowtipper** · 11-25-2010, 08:56 PM

I don't understand the support for Saberhagen. He was never consistently great and he was injured or not playing so much of the time. Remove 1989 and he is 144-111...that's like Mark Buehrle territory.

A starting pitcher who averages 10 wins and only 160 innings pitched a year, even in this era of using starting pitchers less, should not be in the Hall of Fame - especially one who was never great consistently.

**DoubleX** · 11-26-2010, 06:04 AM

Originally Posted by Cowtipper

I don't understand the support for Saberhagen. He was never consistently great and he was injured or not playing so much of the time. Remove 1989 and he is 144-111...that's like Mark Buehrle territory.

A starting pitcher who averages 10 wins and only 160 innings pitched a year, even in this era of using starting pitchers less, should not be in the Hall of Fame - especially one who was never great consistently.

You do realize he won 2 Cy Young Awards by the age of 25, right? He also twice led the league in pitching WAR and finished in the top 6 five times. That should speak to some level of sustained greatness. Saberhagen had great talent, but he may well be the cautionary tale that has led teams to be ultra-conservative today with their young pitchers. From ages 23-25, he averaged approximately 260 IP/season, he also pitched 235 innings at just 21 (when he won his first Cy Young). The heavy workload ruined his arm and all the great promise he showed so early. While he would struggle to stay healthy over the remainder of his career, he was generally effective, if not good, when he was out there, reminding people of what could have been. He finished his career with a pretty impressive 126 ERA+ in 2562 IP.

I'm not supporting him, even though he's a personal favorite of mine, but I think he's close and I can certainly see why others would support him for this Hall.

**Cowtipper** · 11-26-2010, 08:31 AM

Originally Posted by DoubleX

You do realize he won 2 Cy Young Awards by the age of 25, right? He also twice led the league in pitching WAR and finished in the top 6 five times. That should speak to some level of sustained greatness. Saberhagen had great talent, but he may well be the cautionary tale that has led teams to be ultra-conservative today with their young pitchers. From ages 23-25, he averaged approximately 260 IP/season, he also pitched 235 innings at just 21 (when he won his first Cy Young). The heavy workload ruined his arm and all the great promise he showed so early. While he would struggle to stay healthy over the remainder of his career, he was generally effective, if not good, when he was out there, reminding people of what could have been. He finished his career with a pretty impressive 126 ERA+ in 2562 IP.

I'm not supporting him, even though he's a personal favorite of mine, but I think he's close and I can certainly see why others would support him for this Hall.

When he was great he was great but he wasn't great consistently. For crying out loud, it took him until age 31 to post two >.500 seasons in a row. Sustained greatness? He never sustained greatness. After age 25, his average season was 8-6 in 20 appearances. Part of being great is actually being able to perform and outside three great seasons he rarely did that consistently.

And this is further proof that WAR is a flimsy, unreliable statistic. Maybe its not that WAR has found a hidden statistical treasure in Bret Saberhagen that we have all missed...maybe it is that WAR is wrong.

The Hall of Fame is rarely about "what could have beens" unless in the most extreme of examples like Koufax and Joss. Saberhagen's career was not so exemplary that it merits a "what could have been" induction.

**Cowtipper** · 11-26-2010, 08:37 AM

Tim Hudson is not much different than Saberhagen. Am I to assume that if Hudson retired today he would get 37% of the vote for the Hall of Fame from this electorate? Highly unlikely. Jimmy Key is also quite similar.

**mwiggins** · 11-26-2010, 08:52 AM

Originally Posted by Cowtipper

Tim Hudson is not much different than Saberhagen. Am I to assume that if Hudson retired today he would get 37% of the vote for the Hall of Fame from this electorate? Highly unlikely. Jimmy Key is also quite similar.

Hudson - zero Cy Youngs, 1 runner-up CYA finish
Saberhagen - 2 Cy Youngs, 1 3rd place CYA finish

It's hard to overstate how important the above is when you're talking Hall of Fame worthiness.

And I bet there is some support for Hudson as a Hall of Famer in this project. Not 37%, but he's not a one-and-done. Especially if we're talking 10 years after his career was over, like we are with Saberhagen. If Hudson retired today, in 10 years his stats would become more important to the electorates evaluation of him (especially for voters that never saw him) and the perception that he wasn't a Hall of Famer when we watched him would be come less powerful.

I'd be curious to see how much of the support for Saberhagen is from people who watched him in the mid-to-late 80's when he considered an uber elite pitcher when healthy, and how much is from people who never saw him pitch in his prime and are basing their support of him on his advance metrics.

**DoubleX** · 11-26-2010, 08:53 AM

Originally Posted by Cowtipper

Tim Hudson is not much different than Saberhagen. Am I to assume that if Hudson retired today he would get 37% of the vote for the Hall of Fame from this electorate? Highly unlikely. Jimmy Key is also quite similar.

I agree that Key's and Hudson's career numbers aren't too different, but that doesn't change:

Cy Young Awards
Bret Saberhagen: 2
Jimmy Key + Tim Hudson: 0

And again, I think a big thing with Saberhagen is just how good he was through age 25 and thus how much promise there was if not for the overuse.

**Ace Venom** · 11-26-2010, 09:48 AM

I honestly don't see the love affair with Saberhagen. He certainly was a solid pitcher in his prime and had serious Hall of Fame potential. Potential doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame, but meeting your potential can get you there. Sabermetrically (at least according to WAR), it would seem his career WAR would get him some discussion much like Tommy John received. Tommy John isn't getting much love here though and John certainly has a bit more of the "fame" factor on his side than Saberhagen does. I liked Saberhagen as a player, but he just didn't live up to his potential. I have more sympathy for him than I do Dwight Gooden, who is an even bigger disappointment for obvious reasons. As far as I'm concerned, neither one quite makes the cut.

**DoubleX** · 11-26-2010, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by Ace Venom

I honestly don't see the love affair with Saberhagen. He certainly was a solid pitcher in his prime and had serious Hall of Fame potential. Potential doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame, but meeting your potential can get you there. Sabermetrically (at least according to WAR), it would seem his career WAR would get him some discussion much like Tommy John received. Tommy John isn't getting much love here though and John certainly has a bit more of the "fame" factor on his side than Saberhagen does. I liked Saberhagen as a player, but he just didn't live up to his potential. I have more sympathy for him than I do Dwight Gooden, who is an even bigger disappointment for obvious reasons. As far as I'm concerned, neither one quite makes the cut.

I preface again that I'm not a Saberhagen supporter, but I don't think Saberhagen and John is a good comparison. Their career WAR figures are similar, but they got there very differently. John's career pitching WAR is 59.0, good for 43rd all time. He had three top five finishes and another sixth place finish. John also pitched for 26 seasons and over 4700 innings.

Saberhagen on the other hand, reached 54.7 WAR, good for 60th all time. He led the league in pitching WAR twice and finished in the top 3 four times, plus another top 6 finish. He also pitched just 16 seasons and 2560 innings.

So what this all says is that while WAR shows they had similar career value, John needed to pitch almost twice as much to have as much value as Saberhagen. The fact that Saberhagen could accumulate so much value despite such a short career speaks to how great he was at peak.

**Jsquared83** · 11-29-2010, 12:36 PM

Clark
Dw. Evans
Gwynn
Mattingly (alltime fav player)
Murphy
O'Neill (#2 fav alltime player)
Parker
Rice
Ripken

**BigRon** · 11-29-2010, 01:59 PM

Oh my- looks like Murphy's going to miss again! 16/23 right now. He'll have to get 5 for 5 by tomorrow to finish at 21/28, 75%. He almost made it right off the bat, but has hovered around 70% year after year. Murphy's career has some warts, but given the scope of our HOF, I think he clearly belongs. Apparently there are enough who don't agree to keep him out.

**KCGHOST** · 11-29-2010, 02:48 PM

Belle
Clark
Gwynn
McGwire
Quiz
Ripken

What a stellar list to pick from!!

**Ace Venom** · 11-30-2010, 07:39 AM

This election is closed. We elected Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken.

**SavoyBG** · 12-01-2010, 12:17 AM

Originally Posted by Ace Venom

This election is closed. We elected Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken.

I'm amazed that a guy with 1628 RBIs could not even get one vote in his first year on the ballot (Baines).

**hairmetalfreek** · 12-01-2010, 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by SavoyBG

I'm amazed that a guy with 1628 RBIs could not even get one vote in his first year on the ballot (Baines).

I wanted to vote for him, but it's so difficult deciding which of the borderline guys to pull for. I'd like to see Baines get some more love.

Also interesting to see that Lance Parrish is dropping off after 7 years of at least 5%.

**SavoyBG** · 12-01-2010, 02:44 PM

Originally Posted by Ace Venom

This election is closed. We elected Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken.

Ace, do you know who is in this picture?

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**BigRon** · 12-01-2010, 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by SavoyBG

I'm amazed that a guy with 1628 RBIs could not even get one vote in his first year on the ballot (Baines).

Harold was a good hitter- made decent contact for a guy with pretty good power. He stayed healthy for a long time, kept most of his batting skills for a long time. That enabled him to pile up a lot of counting stats at a decent rate. Just an okay outfielder, as I recall- didn't see him play a lot in the field. Baines, in some ways reminds me of Al Oliver- a bit more power, a bit less speed and defensive capability. Both were good players for a long time, but just far enough away from elite status to not garner any kind of HOF buzz, in Cooperstown or here.