View Poll Results: PLEASE READ RULES, LIMIT TO 15 VOTES AND POST BALLOT IN THREAD

Voters
31. You may not vote on this poll
  • Roberto Alomar, 2B (1988-2004) - 1st Year

    30 96.77%
  • Kevin Appier, SP (1989-2004) - 1st Year

    1 3.23%
  • Albert Belle, LF (1989-2000) - 5th Year

    12 38.71%
  • Ellis Burks, CF (1987-2004) - 1st Year

    2 6.45%
  • David Cone, SP (1986-2001, 2003) - 2nd Year

    10 32.26%
  • Eric Davis, CF (1984-1994, 1996-2001) - 4th Year

    2 6.45%
  • Dwight Evans, RF (1972-1991) - 14th Year

    17 54.84%
  • Tony Fernandez, SS (1983-1995, 1997-1999, 2001) - 4th Year

    1 3.23%
  • Andres Gallaraga, 1B (1985-1998, 2000-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Mark Grace, 1B (1988-2003) - 2nd Year

    4 12.90%
  • Orel Hershiser, SP (1983-2000) - 5th Year

    3 9.68%
  • Michael Jackson, RP (1986-1999, 2001-2002, 2004) - 1st Year

    1 3.23%
  • Eric Karros, 1B (1991-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Ray Lankford, CF (1990-2002, 2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Barry Larkin, SS (1986-2004) - 1st Year

    29 93.55%
  • Fred Lynn, CF (1974-1990) - 15th Year

    6 19.35%
  • Don Mattingly, 1B (1982-1995) - 10th Year

    5 16.13%
  • Edgar Martinez, DH (1987-2004) - 1st Year

    18 58.06%
  • Fred McGriff, 1B (1986-2004) - 1st Year

    20 64.52%
  • Mark McGwire, 1B (1986-2001) - 4th Year

    15 48.39%
  • Mark McLemore, 2B (1986-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Jack Morris, SP (1977-1994) - 11th Year

    7 22.58%
  • Robb Nen, RP (1993-2002) - 3rd Year

    1 3.23%
  • Dave Parker, RF (1973-1991) - 14th Year

    11 35.48%
  • Dan Quisenberry, RP (1979-1990) - 15th Year

    12 38.71%
  • Willie Randolph, 2B (1975-1992) - 13th Year

    12 38.71%
  • Bret Saberhagen, SP (1984-1995, 1997-1999, 2001) - 4th Year

    8 25.81%
  • David Segui, 1B (1990-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Lee Smith, RP (1980-1997) - 8th Year

    11 35.48%
  • Dave Stieb, SP (1979-1993, 1998) - 7th Year

    14 45.16%
  • Darryl Strawberry, RF (1983-1999) - 6th Year

    2 6.45%
  • Robin Ventura, 3B (1989-2004) - 1st Year

    4 12.90%
  • Fernando Vina, 2B (1993-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • Matt Williams, 3B (1987-2003) - 2nd Year

    0 0%
  • Todd Zeile, 3B (1989-2004) - 1st Year

    0 0%
  • None of the Above (Blank Ballot)

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: BBF Progressive HoF Election: 2009

  1. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    My argument here is that we shouldn't take away from Martinez merely because we speculate that his career would have been shorter if there was no DH. There IS a DH, and at some point in time (2075) the DH will have been around for longer than it wasn't around. Rules change, times change, you can only judge guys by what THEY DID in their day playing by the rules of the day. Maybe some of you want to discount what spitballers did before the pitch was outlawed? It's like the people who claim that Ross barnes wasn't a great player because he was using the foul rules of the time to his credit. The rules were the same then for every player. If Barnes was the best at taking advantage of the rules of his day he should receive full credit for that, just as if Edgar Martinez was the best full time DH of all time, he should not be penalized for the fact that the position did not exist 80 years ago.
    I don't think anyone is saying Martinez should be "punished," but that positional adjustments, as with any position are warranted. The fact is Martinez DHs because he had little to no ability to play the field, and relied on the DH to get in the lineup and produce. This shouldn't be ignored. Some consideration needs to be made for the fact that Martinez wasn't playing in the field. Otherwise, you're giving him an advantage over all positional players for being too terrible to field, because you can't hold poor fielding against him as you can with positional players. If that's to be the case, then the only fair approach would be to ignore the defense of every player and judge them solely on their offense. But that of course is not what we do, nor is it fair. We judge a player's offense with respect to demands and expectations of his position. DH is no different. There is no fielding requirement, and the fact a player is a DH is usually an indictment of that player's ability to field. Given that they don't need to field, and really exert themselves very little in comparison to the other 8 batters in the lineup, it's fair to expect a higher level of offense from DH, just as it's fair to expect a higher level of offense from 1B than from SS due to the relative demands of the positions.

    There's also the fact that there's nothing truly unique about the "position" of DHing. You can say Martinez was the greatest DH of all time, but so what? Every other positional player also plays Martinez's position as 50% of their duties. So we shouldn't be comparing Martinez just do DHs, but to all hitters since Martinez lacks the distinction of a defensive position, and if there are several players that could approximate Martinez's production without having the benefits of just DHing, I think that lessens Martinez's accomplishments some what. As I said above, what Martinez did as a DH wasn't too different than what players like Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Rodriguez, Griffey, Thomas, Giambi, Thome, Piazza, Belle, Bagwell, Walker, Helton, Ramirez and Delgado were doing without DHing. Essentially, there may have been a dozen and perhaps more players that could have done what Martinez did - they all could hit at a high level. But Martinez could not do what they did, hit at a high level and play the field, and that should be held against Martinez to some degree.

    In sum, as with any position, it's fair to make adjustments to consider the inherent offensive advantages playing DH gives a player.

    EDIT: This may be the best discussion we've had in this project in a long time, and it's probably because as with the earlier days of this project, it's coming down to standards (in this case, the DH forcing us to evaluate a new standards). But we may be at the point where there's not much left to be said and it may be best to agree to disagree.
    Last edited by DoubleX; 12-21-2010 at 08:07 AM.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    I think you're ignoring where the premium is. When building a team, what's harder to find, a catcher that hits like Piazza, or a DH that hits like Piazza? It's easily the former, as in the history of the game there may be no catcher that hits like Piazza. So having Piazza at catcher affords the team the luxury of being able to go out and find another good hitter to play DH, thereby enabling the team to get great production at both catcher and DH, something that most teams, if any, would not be getting. You move Piazza to DH and get an average catcher, the lineup is suddenly much weaker, as you've removed the excess spot for another big hitter. As such, in his prime, I think Piazza unquestionably had more value to a team as a catcher, because of the flexibility it gave the team in plugging in offense at other positions (where there it's also easier to find good offense).

    Essentially, having Piazza as a catcher would enable to the team to have someone like Edgar Martinez DH (yes, the team may have to go out and find a big bat for DH, but again, it's much easier to find someone to DH with maybe a 130 OPS+ then it would be to find a catcher to come close to approximating Piazza's production). Piazza catching makes it possible to have good production from both positions.

    In sum, in building a team, I would rather have the flexibility to have:

    C: Piazza (145 OPS+)
    DH: Player X (120-130 OPS+)

    Then

    C: Player Y (80-90 OPS+)
    DH: Piazza (150 OPS+)

    The first team's lineup will have the opportunity to create something far more potent.
    That all depends on the difference in runs saved the defensive catcher vs. Piazza as catcher. If the good glove behind the plate saves 15 runs and Piazza costs 5 then the DH has to produce 20 more runs than the defensive catcher (plus whatever is lost from Piazza's bat by having him catch as per your example above).

  3. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    That all depends on the difference in runs saved the defensive catcher vs. Piazza as catcher. If the good glove behind the plate saves 15 runs and Piazza costs 5 then the DH has to produce 20 more runs than the defensive catcher (plus whatever is lost from Piazza's bat by having him catch as per your example above).
    But how many more runs is Piazza producing offensively compared to an average catcher? The good glove behind the plate may save a number of additional runs defensively, but that may not be enough to offset all the extra runs Piazza's bat is producing compared to an average offensive catcher. The difference is then even greater when you factor in all the extra runs produced by both Piazza at catcher and whoever is playing DH.

  4. #54
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    Alomar
    Evans
    Larkin
    Mattingly
    McGriff
    Parker

  5. #55
    This is Fred Lynn's last year of eligibility. He's not going to get in, and I don't really think he should. That said, the irony is that he really was, in many ways, the best of the 3 Boston OFers- himself, Rice, and Evans. For his first few years he was a complete balplayer, excelling in all phases of the game. Injuries, apparently, dulled his abilities, and derailed what almost surely would have been a HOF career. THis has happened to quite a few guys, but we shouldn't forget how good Lynn was for a few years.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    But how many more runs is Piazza producing offensively compared to an average catcher? The good glove behind the plate may save a number of additional runs defensively, but that may not be enough to offset all the extra runs Piazza's bat is producing compared to an average offensive catcher. The difference is then even greater when you factor in all the extra runs produced by both Piazza at catcher and whoever is playing DH.
    I think offensively the difference is between the defensive catcher and the DH since Piazza is in the line-up either way. Anyway it's an interesting riddle to pass the winter.

  7. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    ...
    Obviously a DH has to hit more than players at other positions if he's gonna be a hall of famer, but Martinez was not just a good hitter. He was a GREAT hitter who is currently tied for # 64 in career offensive WAR ...
    Yes, he ranks #64 with "oWAR" 66.9 wins, based on 672 runs above replacement. That includes positional adjustment -140 runs, primarily about -15 runs per season as a full-time DH around the late 1990s.

    To make a random comparison, the parallel "offensive" numbers for Ted Kluszewski are 319 runs above replacement; including positional adjustment -72 runs, primarily about -7 runs per season as a full-time 1B around the early 1950s.

    For Jorge Posada, 493 runs above replacement, including positional adjustment +86 runs, primarily about +8 runs per season as a nearly full-time Catcher around the early 20-aughts.

    For Mike Piazza, 658 runs above replacement, including positional adjustment +83 runs, primarily about +8 runs per season as a nearly full-time Catcher around the late 1990s.

    Without any positional adjustments:
    +812 Martinez
    +575 Piazza
    +407 Posada
    +391 Kluszewski

    Measured by career PA, Piazza played about 1/6 longer than Posada and Kluszewski; Martinez played about 1/3 longer.

    Source: WAR ratings by Sean Smith, season-by-season components published at Baseball-Reference player pages.

  8. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    I don't think anyone is saying Martinez should be "punished," but that positional adjustments, as with any position are warranted. The fact is Martinez DHs because he had little to no ability to play the field, and relied on the DH to get in the lineup and produce.
    What would you rather have? Edgar Martinez at DH or Edgar Martinez at 3B and Randy Johnson batting? Which scenario provides more production for the team?

    The argument isn't that Edgar Martinez is the best DH of all time so he should be in this HOF. It's that he is one of the greatest HITTERS of all time, so he should be in the HOF. If you want to give some kind of discount for his lack of playing the field, give him Harmon Killebrew's dWAR as a penalty. That still puts him well into our hall.

  9. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Good point. Nobody seems to have a problem with AL pitchers who did not have to hit thereby keeping them from having a negative WAR total for offense. This would be the mirror image of a DH who doesn't have to field and get negative defense.
    It's not just batting that would be affected, though. A pitcher in the NL is going to leave the game earlier with the game on the line than they would if they were pitching in the AL. A pitcher in the NL will leave early if their at bat comes up with the game on the line or with runners in scoring position. AL pitchers, by not batting, also do not have to worry about an injury running the bases. There are several advantages to pitching in the league that has the DH, yet no one seems willing to give a deduction for those pitchers even though those same people give a deduction for DHs.
    Last edited by jjpm74; 12-21-2010 at 08:45 AM.

  10. #60
    [delete 90%, which duplicates #57. apologize for duplicate post]

    Martinez ranks #64 based on 672 runs above replacement.

    Piazza ranks #63 by career "oWAR" (offensive WAR), immediately above Martinez. (Refer to numbers above.)
    He ranks ahead of Martinez because oWAR does include the positional adjustment and because 658 runs were worth slightly more wins in Piazza's National League than were 672 runs in the Martinez' American League.
    Last edited by Paul Wendt; 12-21-2010 at 01:53 PM. Reason: delete and apologize

  11. #61
    Mike Piazza ranks immediately ahead of Edgar Martinez by "offensive WAR" or oWAR.

    Remarkably, the four players following Piazza in those ranks are all on the BBWAA ballot now. Because they played different fielding positions, it should instructive to take a closer look at their "offensive" ratings in the WAR system. Tony Gwynn ranks just ahead of Piazza, yet another recent player at yet another primarily fielding position, so I will include him too.

    Career oWAR, six contemporary stars who rank together
    Code:
    rank	oWAR	oRAR	PosAdj	primary *oRAR*	*oRAA*			PA	Rfield	*dRAR*
    
    61t	67.6	649	-105	RF	754	467	Tony Gwynn	10232	+ 5	-100
    63	67.4	658	+ 83	C	575	354	Mike Piazza	 7745	-70	+ 13
    64t	66.9	670	+ 38	2B	632	313	Roberto Alomar	10400	-32	+  6
    64t	66.9	672	-140	DH	812	527	Edgar Martinez   8672	+16	-124
    65	66.7	665	-113	1B	778	538	Mark McGwire	 7660	-30	-143
    66	66.6	646	+114	SS	532	280	Barry Larkin	 9057	+27	+141
    The first two columns and the player names are an excerpt from the career rankings by oWAR. Longevity and durability are beside the point here, but I have included career plate appearances at far right for convenient reference. Primary fielding positions (primary) for these recent stars are well known.

    The other data given here are denominated in runs (underline).

    Offensive runs above replacement (oRAR) is the basis for oWAR by a conversion that is close to 10 runs per win. It differs from RAR, the basis for WAR, by the fielding component (Rfield at bb-ref). For these recent players the conversion rate is slightly above 10 in the AL and slightly below 10 in the NL. So the NL players rank slightly higher by wins than they do by runs. Gwynn ranks slightly higher than Piazza with slightly fewer runs because he played earlier when runs per win were slightly lower.

    Positional adjustment (PosAdj) is published at baseball-reference (Rpos).

    *oRAR* is offensive runs above replacement minus the positional adjustment. I suppose some people would prefer to call this one "offensive runs above replacement". Barry Larkin wasn't worth so many runs as Edgar Martinez and Mark McGwire strictly as a batter and baserunner (*RAR*). He was that in the light or shadow of the positional adjustment (oRAR and oWAR equivalently).

    *oRAA* is offensive runs above average minus the positional adjustment, or *oRAR* minus the difference between replacement and average (as a positive number, Rrep at bb-ref). *oRAA* is also the sum of the first four components as published at bb-ref.
    Last edited by Paul Wendt; 12-21-2010 at 02:16 PM. Reason: add <Rfield, *dRAR*>; rewrite *RAR*=>*oRAR* and *RAA*=>*oRAA*

  12. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    I think you're ignoring where the premium is. When building a team, what's harder to find, a catcher that hits like Piazza, or a DH that hits like Piazza? It's easily the former, as in the history of the game there may be no catcher that hits like Piazza. So having Piazza at catcher affords the team the luxury of being able to go out and find another good hitter to play DH, thereby enabling the team to get great production at both catcher and DH, something that most teams, if any, would not be getting. You move Piazza to DH and get an average catcher, the lineup is suddenly much weaker, as you've removed the excess spot for another big hitter. As such, in his prime, I think Piazza unquestionably had more value to a team as a catcher, because of the flexibility it gave the team in plugging in offense at other positions (where there it's also easier to find good offense).

    Essentially, having Piazza as a catcher would enable to the team to have someone like Edgar Martinez DH (yes, the team may have to go out and find a big bat for DH, but again, it's much easier to find someone to DH with maybe a 130 OPS+ then it would be to find a catcher to come close to approximating Piazza's production). Piazza catching makes it possible to have good production from both positions.

    In sum, in building a team, I would rather have the flexibility to have:

    C: Piazza (145 OPS+)
    DH: Player X (120-130 OPS+)

    Then

    C: Player Y (80-90 OPS+)
    DH: Piazza (150 OPS+)

    The first team's lineup will have the opportunity to create something far more potent.
    A - The second team's defense will have an oppurtunity to prevent more runs.

    B - DHs with an OPS+ of 120-130 are not as easy to find as you think.

  13. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    I don't think anyone is saying Martinez should be "punished," but that positional adjustments, as with any position are warranted. The fact is Martinez DHs because he had little to no ability to play the field, and relied on the DH to get in the lineup and produce. This shouldn't be ignored. Some consideration needs to be made for the fact that Martinez wasn't playing in the field. Otherwise, you're giving him an advantage over all positional players for being too terrible to field, because you can't hold poor fielding against him as you can with positional players.
    Martinez should be judged against all the offense of all other DHs. We don't give him extra punitive deductions because poor fielding cannot be held against him. It's not our analysis that is allowing him to not have to field, it's the rules of American League baseball, which are the same for every team in the league. The fact that he is a DH is not like a home park that has to be factored in because he has an advantage or a disadvantage vs. the other DHs in the league.

    We don't hold it against a tight end because he doesn't have any rushing yards. We don't hold it against an AL pitcher because he has less chance to be injured by virtue of not having to bat and run the bases.

    American league position players have to hit better than National League position players to get to league average, because having the DH in the league brings up the league average offense. So for Martinez to get to an OPS+ of 147 he needs to hit better than a player in the NL would have to hit to get to the same OPS+. So if Paizza played his entire career as a catcher in the AL his OPS+ would be a little lower than it was.

    As long as Martinez is not breaking the rules of his day all we can do is measure WHAT HE DID....we can't assume what we think he may have otherwise done if he had to play under different rules.
    Last edited by SavoyBG; 12-21-2010 at 10:16 AM.

  14. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    B - DHs with an OPS+ of 120-130 are not as easy to find as you think.
    I don't see why not. Any positional player can be a DH, but a DH may not be able to play any other position. In a given year, there could be 40 or more players with an OPS+ over 120 (especially during Martinez's peak during the juiced era). Any one of those players could be plugged into the DH slot, and most would probably see a boost in their production if they weren't already DHing. Then there's probably another large handful of players that didn't have a 120 OPS+, but might get there if moved from the field to DH. It doesn't take any special skill to DH, any positional player can do it because they already do what a DH does.

    And why shouldn't poor fielding be held against him? Going back to the Piazza/Martinez comparison, Martinez has a higher WAR because he didn't have to field, which was a product of him being too terrible to field. Being a DH allowed him to escape any fielding deductions for his poor fielding. Meanwhile, Piazza is behind the plate for most of his career, and he gets penalized for being able to field, unlike Martinez. In this comparison, Piazza is punished for being to play the toughest position on the diamond for a long time, while Martinez is rewarded for being too terrible to field anywhere. You're not going to convince me at this point that it doesn't add up.

    I have no problem comparing DHs to other DHs, but within the context, there's still the fact that a positional adjustment due to the demands of the position is necessary. We don't hold catchers and shortstops to 1B standards because of the different demands of the position. So why should an adjustment not be made for DHs to account for the fact that a high level of offense should be expected?

  15. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    As long as Martinez is not breaking the rules of his day all we can do is measure WHAT HE DID....we can't assume what we think he may have otherwise done if he had to play under different rules.
    I would suggest that assuming "what we think he might have otherwise done if...." is the favorite game of at least half the BBF posters. Every single ratings/HOF poll has poster after poster downgrading various players beyond where their on field performance should place them due to poster attitude about the use of PEDs, even when it has not been proven- even if it may have occurred when ML baseball did not have rules against usage.

    I think DoubleX is absolutely right in his main arguments. Where I disagree a little with him is in the ultimate evaluation (I think) of Martinez. I agree that Martinez, given the boundaries of the game he played in, did an outstanding job. I think he fits in the parameters of this HOF. In terms of Cooperstown, the numbers say that it is more restrictive- about 20% so. I think he is a marginal candidate for that HOF. It will be interesting to see what happens.

  16. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by BigRon View Post
    I think DoubleX is absolutely right in his main arguments. Where I disagree a little with him is in the ultimate evaluation (I think) of Martinez. I agree that Martinez, given the boundaries of the game he played in, did an outstanding job. I think he fits in the parameters of this HOF. In terms of Cooperstown, the numbers say that it is more restrictive- about 20% so. I think he is a marginal candidate for that HOF. It will be interesting to see what happens.
    I appreciate the support, but why does it seem people have missed the many times now that I've said I will likely vote for Martinez going forward in this project? I think at this point we're having more of a philosophically debate rather than a debate on whether Martinez belongs. I'll concede, he probably belongs here, and that with taking into account any considerations for the fact that he's a DH.

  17. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    I appreciate the support, but why does it seem people have missed the many times now that I've said I will likely vote for Martinez going forward in this project? I think at this point we're having more of a philosophically debate rather than a debate on whether Martinez belongs. I'll concede, he probably belongs here, and that with taking into account any considerations for the fact that he's a DH.
    Sorry DoubleX- I actually meant to point out that you said you probably would ultimately vote for him. My point was intended to be that I guess I view his candidacy a little more favorably, though I do view him as a middle/lower tier guy.

  18. #68
    DHs with an OPS+ of 120-130 are not as easy to find as you think.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post

    I don't see why not.
    Okay, let's see. Here's all the DHs from this past season:

    PLAYER - OPS+
    Aybar - 82, Burrell - 74, Blaylock - 86
    Thames - 122, Berkman - 91, N. Johnson - 89
    Ortiz - 137
    Lind - 92,
    Scott - 142
    Thome - 178
    Kotsay - 82, Manny - 102
    Damon - 106
    Hafner - 131
    Guillen - 102
    Guererro - 122
    Cust - 128, Chavez - 66
    Matsui - 124
    Branyan - 123

    Only 9 of the 14 teams were able to find anybody at all with a 120 OPS+ and of those the Yankees and the A's could only find it for part of a platoon. Only 4 of the 14 teans had a DH witrh an OPS+ of 130 or higher. Three of the teams could not even come close to overall average (100 OPS) hitting from their DH position, Tampa, Chicago and Toronto.
    Last edited by SavoyBG; 12-21-2010 at 01:26 PM.

  19. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    DHs with an OPS+ of 120-130 are not as easy to find as you think.



    Okay, let's see. Here's all the DHs from this past season:

    PLAYER - OPS+
    Aybar - 82, Burrell - 74, Blaylock - 86
    Thames - 122, Berkman - 91, N. Johnson - 89
    Ortiz - 137
    Lind - 92,
    Scott - 142
    Thome - 178
    Kotsay - 82, Manny - 102
    Damon - 106
    Hafner - 131
    Guillen - 102
    Guererro - 122
    Cust - 128, Chavez - 66
    Matsui - 124
    Branyan - 123

    Only 9 of the 14 teams were able to find anybody at all with a 120 OPS+ and of those the Yankees and the A's could only find it for part of a platoon. Only 4 of the 14 teans had a DH witrh an OPS+ of 130 or higher.
    It's like we're talking two different languages here. You speak of DHs as if they have some special skill, but the fact is they don't. Unlike playing say catcher, or shortsop, or centerfield, or pretty much any defensive position, it doesn't take any special skill set to DH. Any positional player can be slotted into the DH spot. For purposes of this tangent of the discussion (i.e. the available talent to DH if Piazza is catching), the pool of talent is really league wide, because again, anyone can DH. In 2010, there were 32 players who had an OPS+ of at least 130; 49 players who of at least 120; and 65 who were at 110 or higher (and some from this group may have been higher of only DHing). Any of these players could be a DH.

    Ten years ago when Martinez was still plugging away, there were 39 players with an OPS+ of at least 130, 53 of at least 120, and 76 of at least 110. It isn't hard to just go out and find a player do nothing but be a productive bat. But it is extremely hard to find a productive hitter to be a catcher.

    The entire point of this conversation is about where the greater premium is at - again, it's far more difficult to get:

    C - Mike Piazza production
    DH - Player X (120-130 OPS+)

    then to get

    C - Average production (80-90 OPS+)
    DH - Mike Piazza production

    And why is it more difficult? Because there is a MUCH larger pool of available talent for a 120 OPS+ at DH then there is for Mike Piazzaesque production at catcher. Any of the 49 players in 2010 who had a 120 OPS+ could have DHd, but only perhaps Joe Mauer could play catcher and hit like Piazza during his peak. So yes, I'd rather have Piazza and the opportunity to get another good hitter at DH then Mike Piazza at DH and an average catcher. The former presents a blueprint for much more formidable lineup.

    At this point though, I'm going to stop with this part of the conversation, as it seems like we're just going in circles.
    Last edited by DoubleX; 12-21-2010 at 01:46 PM.

  20. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    It's like we're talking two different languages here. You speak of DHs as if they have some special skill, but the fact is they don't.
    I can't do any more than what I already did by showing that only half of the AL teams in 2010 were able to get 120 or higher OPS+ production from their full time DH(s).

    Unless you are advocating moving players like Cano and Longoria to DH, it doesn't mean anything that there are non-DH players who are hitting well.


    Suppose you were running Tampa last year and you got Piazza in his prime as a free agent. Would you be better off catching Piazza with Jaso as the backup and Aybar, Burrell and Blaylock DHing, or would you be better off leaving Jaso at catcher and moving Piazza to DH?

  21. #71
    Well, back to the 2009 election. Unless there is a sea change in the next few days, it looks like Alomar and Larkin will be the only inductees. 24 votes are in. If we finish with, say, 30 voters, 23 votes will be required to get in. EMartinez and McGriff have 15 each- they couldn't make it- their theoretical max would be 21, or 70%.

  22. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    I can't do any more than what I already did by showing that only half of the AL teams in 2010 were able to get 120 or higher OPS+ production from their full time DH(s).

    Unless you are advocating moving players like Cano and Longoria to DH, it doesn't mean anything that there are non-DH players who are hitting well.
    But you were advocating moving Piazza to DH.... And I can't do anything more than I did then show you that there was 40-50 players last season who would have made suitable DHs. A DH isn't doing anything that is unique to his position. Cano and Longoria and any other hitter could DH, but a DH couldn't play 2B or 3B. Just as Mike Piazza could DH, but a DH couldn't play C like Piazza. It does mean something that non-DH hitters are doing well because it devalues the premium on what DHs do. It's not nearly as hard to find a hitter to have a 120 OPS+ and DH as it is to find a hitter have a 120 OPS+ and play virtually any other position. No special skillset is required to DH, unlike every other position on the diamond. Again, we're going in circles.

    As for your Tampa example, you can create hypotheticals all day long. What if the Red Sox two or three years ago had Piazza in his prime? Wouldn't their best C/DH combo have been Piazza and Ortiz, or would you rather have seen Varitek and Piazza? Or how about the Yankees a few years ago when Posada was injured? Wouldn't a Piazza/Teixeira/Matsui trio at C/1B/DH be better than a Jose Molina/Teixeira/Piazza trio?

    Plus, if Tampa had Piazza, they may have constructed their team very differently. Maybe Jaso would have been traded for a better hitter to DH? I think most teams would rather have Piazza catching in his prime and then find someone else to slot in at DH (or 1B) and get as much offense as possible.
    Last edited by DoubleX; 12-21-2010 at 02:42 PM.

  23. #73
    Here is another table which extends the previous one, drops some data fields, and rearranges the others. Recall that these six recent stars rank together, 61t to 67, by career oWAR (previous table). Blue marks the fields which are new since this morning (previous).

    Code:
    RAR	oRAR	*oRAR*	primary	PosAdj	Rfield	*dRAR*			PA	*oRAR* per
    										500 PA
    654	649	754	RF	-105	+ 5	-100	Tony Gwynn	10232	36.8
    588	658	575	C	+ 83	-70	+ 13	Mike Piazza	 7745	37.1
    638	670	632	2B	+ 38	-32	+  6	Roberto Alomar	10400	30.3
    688	672	812	DH	-140	+16	-124	Edgar Martinez   8672	46.8
    635	665	778	1B	-113	-30	-143	Mark McGwire	 7660	50.7
    673	646	532	SS	+114	+27	+141	Barry Larkin	 9057	29.3
    Runs above replacement (RAR) is published at bb-ref. It is the basis for WAR by a conversion that is close to 10 runs per win.

    *oRAR* is offensive runs above replacement minus the positional adjustment (PosAdj, or Rpos at bb-ref). I suppose some including Mike XX would prefer to call this one "offensive runs above replacement", rather than use that name for the measure that incorporates positional adjustment (oRAR at bb-ref).

    Rfield is fielding runs, which some people may prefer to call defensive runs.
    *dRAR* is fielding runs plus the positional adjustment, which some other people may prefer to call defensive runs.

    Note that total runs above replacement (RAR), the basis for WAR, given in column one, may expressed as the sum of two other columns in two ways, as the sum of columns two and six or columns three and seven.
    RAR = oRAR + Rfield
    RAR = *oRAR* + *dRAR*

    At far right I have given career plate appearances (PA) and *oRAR* per 500 PA. Denominated in runs above replacement per 500 PA, that is "offense" measured purely by batting and baserunning, without any positional adjustment. In those terms Martinez and McGwire were much more productive (bold) than were Gwynn and Piazza (plain), who were much more productive than Alomar and Larkin (italics).
    Last edited by Paul Wendt; 12-21-2010 at 02:45 PM.

  24. #74
    Join Date
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    If my team had Ron Karkovice and Mike Piazza I'd make Mike Piazza the catcher, Ron the backup and then go looking for a DH.

  25. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleX View Post
    But you were advocating moving Piazza to DH.... And I can't do anything more than I did then show you that there was 40-50 players last season who would have made suitable DHs. A DH isn't doing anything that is unique to his position. Cano and Longoria and any other hitter could DH, but a DH couldn't play 2B or 3B. Just as Mike Piazza could DH, but a DH couldn't play C like Piazza. It does mean something that non-DH hitters are doing well because it devalues the premium on what DHs do. It's not nearly as hard to find a hitter to have a 120 OPS+ and DH as it is to find a hitter have a 120 OPS+ and play virtually any other position. No special skillset is required to DH, unlike every other position on the diamond. Again, we're going in circles.

    As for your Tampa example, you can create hypotheticals all day long. What if the Red Sox two or three years ago had Piazza in his prime? Wouldn't their best C/DH combo have been Piazza and Ortiz, or would you rather have seen Varitek and Piazza? Or how about the Yankees a few years ago when Posada was injured? Wouldn't a Piazza/Teixeira/Matsui trio at C/1B/DH be better than a Jose Molina/Teixeira/Piazza trio?

    Plus, if Tampa had Piazza, they may have constructed their team very differently. Maybe Jaso would have been traded for a better hitter to DH? I think most teams would rather have Piazza catching in his prime and then find someone else to slot in at DH (or 1B) and get as much offense as possible.
    Like I said originally, it all depends on what other players you have on your team.

    The "skill set" of a DH is that you get to keep an awesome hitting/bad fielding player in your batting order without hurting your defense.

    The fact that there are 40 or 50 other hitters with an OPS+ of 120 or higher does not mean that you would move any one of them to DH.

    DH IS A POSITION, just like SS is a position. With a DH you want somebody who is as good an offensive player as possible and also that you won't be wasting any defensive ability he has by him playing a non-fielding position.

    Only an idiot would move a player like Cano to full time DH when he's a great fielding 2Bman. It would be almost as dumb as moving Piazza to CF.

    If it's so easy to find a DH with a 120-130 OPS+, why is is that half of the AL teams last season could not do it?

    The idea is NOT to maximize Piazza's value by making him a catcher rather tha n a DH, the idea is to maximize your team's effectiveness.

    Obvioulsy A-Rod is more valuable as a SS than as a 3Bman, but thta wasn't going to happen on the Yankees.

    Obviously Piazza's individual value is higher as a catcher than as a DH, but on some teams they would be better voff overall with him as a DH than as a catcher.

    Just like A-Rod coming to the Yankees you could have had Piazza coming to Texas while I-Rod was there. Piazza goes to DH.
    Last edited by SavoyBG; 12-21-2010 at 06:34 PM.

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