1996 Best of Baseball election thread

[jalbright]

I'm a little surprised by how poorly Goose Gossage is doing at this point. I can see not including him in one of the top slots on a ballot, but there are two people here who don't even mention him as a player they are considering at some point. We elected Hoyt Wilhelm with relative ease. Why not Gossage who was not a 1 inning specialist in his day, but played a big role in defining what a reliever's role is and was the most dominant reliever in the history of the game with the exception of Mariano Rivera?

Goose may not be doing as well as you'd like, but he's doing quite well at this point. If he doesn't make it this time, he's almost certain to make it quite soon given his standing at this point.

Also, though I'd like to get more votes, if there are no changes in contributor ballots, we'll be OK with the quorum rules, as the gap between #1 and #2 cannot be bridged by one ballot (which is all we'd need to make 10).

[Brad Harris]

I have decided to drop Rice off my ballot as he has not gotten any additional support. I added Koyama after reading further about him. He appears he had a much better career than Grimes who I have also decided to drop completely. Instead of Grimes, I will push for Mullane who has just a hair under 70 WAR combined pitching/hitting. Grimes' wasn't even 40.

Mullane is in the mix with Pierce and Rixey for me. (I'm already voting for Koyama and Reuschel.) Those five are demonstrably better selections than Grimes, IMHO.

[Brad Harris]

I am very excited at the prospect of electing several holdovers next year! Gives a man pause when contemplating his next ballot.

[TheMendozaLine]

I caught TML's recent ballot changes, but it causes me to issue this reminder. I don't want to discourage ballot changes, but if you want to make sure I catch them, please either make a separate post indicating that you changed your ballot (you don't have to list them in that post) or PM me to tell me that you've changed your ballot. If I miss your changes because you didn't tell me one of these two ways, the prior ballot will be the one counted as "official". After the first Monday in this project, I keep a running total of the voting, and it's a pain to have to go back to catch the infrequent changed ballots. That's why I ask that you do this. Thanks for your cooperation.

My apologies for any inconvenience, Jim. I thought it was still early enough votes hadn't been tallied. If I make any changes in the future, I will shoot you a PM.

[TheMendozaLine]

Mullane is in the mix with Pierce and Rixey for me. (I'm already voting for Koyama and Reuschel.) Those five are demonstrably better selections than Grimes, IMHO.

Reuschel has definitely gotten my attention. I never realized how solid of a career he had. I just thought he was a fat guy who could hit. He could apparently pitch pretty well too but I never saw that aspect of him as I started to pay attention to baseball later in his career.

[jalbright]

There are no new contributors coming on board in 1997 (or 1998 for that matter), which should help deal with the recent influx of strong candidates.

As for the players, there are new candidates, but none look overpowering:

Denny , John
Knight , Ray
Krukow , Mike
Lynn , Fred 
Remy , Jerry
Smalley , Roy

[jalbright]

Personally, it looks like the three candidates on my ballot next year who replace those elected from this year will be Reuschel, Duffy and Freehan, not necessarily in that order.

[Brad Harris]

Personally, it looks like the three candidates on my ballot next year who replace those elected from this year will be Reuschel, Duffy and Freehan, not necessarily in that order.

I've been wondering how you compare/contrast Freehan to Trouppe since both are in my queue.

[J W]

I've got them pretty close too. My next three figure to be Freehan, Reggie Smith and Billy Pierce... but Trouppe is right there.

[Brad Harris]

Right now I have Pierce as unlucky number thirteen in '97.

[jalbright]

I've been wondering how you compare/contrast Freehan to Trouppe since both are in my queue.

Trouppe had so much longer a career, it's hard to see how Freehan could be ahead. Frankly, I like Trouppe's bat better, too, and Trouppe had a fine defensive rep as well. If I had to take one, I'd be thrilled, but I'd rather have Trouppe. I compare Trouppe's bat to Ted Simmons', FWIW.

[jalbright]

Some more on Trouppe:

Quincy Trouppe

He had a nice long career as a catcher in the Negro Leagues, over 20 years. The BBTF guys figure him at around 260+ career win shares, 78 in his best three seasons and 105 in his best five consecutive. They think he would have been a 270/370/420 hitter, good for a 119 OPS+, in about 7200 AB. Given that Trouppe had a good defensive rep, I think the best synopsis of his case is, if Bill Freehan belongs, so does he. If you draw the line above Freehan, then the case is more questionable.

AG2004's take on Trouppe is instructive, I think:

I realized that seven All-Star-Type seasons (20+ win shares) was the general cut-off area for post-1925 catchers and the BBFHOF; for the other field positions, eight was the general cut-off. Hartnett, who is a consensus member of the BBFHOF, has seven such seasons. Ivan Rodriguez, who most people here would consider worthy of Cooperstown, has also recorded seven such seasons. Since catching, more than playing any other of the eight "everyday" positions, makes high demands on the human body, and since there seems to be a limit on how often a human can catch, putting the cutoff a little lower here makes sense.

For this reason, the de facto cutoffs that the BBFHOF has established for win shares are lower at catcher than at the other positions. Again, since there are physical limits to how often a human being can catch, I don't have a problem with this. Since Trouppe has reached these standards, he belongs in the BBFHOF.

Case to Consider: TROUPPE, Quincy

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Between late 1944 and 1947, Trouppe was considered the star of the Cleveland Buckeyes. While the team was mediocre in 1946, it did win the pennant in 1945 and 1947.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Trouppe’s MLEs project him with as many or more win shares than the top MLB catchers in 1939, 1941, 1942, 1946, 1947, and 1948, and more win shares than the top AL catcher in 1940 and 1943.

However, only in 1947 and 1948 was Trouppe the best catcher in baseball. Until 1946, Josh Gibson was far and away the best catcher in the game, and Trouppe would have looked poor by comparison. (Next to Gibson’s MLEs, all other catchers look poor by comparison.)

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Cleveland won the NAL pennants in 1945 and 1947. In the 1945 Negro World Series, Trouppe batted over .400 as the Buckeyes swept the favored Homestead Grays.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Trouppe had an All-Star-type season in 1948, at the age of 35, and caught for a few years more. Due to the color line, he didn’t appear in the major leagues until 1952, when he played in six games at age 39. I have to answer yes here.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

I doubt that Trouppe is the best player outside the BBFHOF.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Baseballthinkfactory’s MLEs credit Trouppe with 260+ career win shares and 113 in his best five consecutive seasons. They credit him with 84 win shares in his best three seasons. Dr. Chaleeko knocked down the figures for 1938 and 1946 on the grounds that Trouppe wouldn’t have caught as much in the major leagues as a linear translation would indicate. Since his five-year peak lasted from 1939 to 1943, the adjustments don’t affect that mark.

The adjustments would lower Trouppe’s best three seasons from 84 to 79, however. On the other hand, in 1946, Trouppe was playing in Negro League games, and they counted in the standings for his team. Furthermore, the BTF people admit that their MLEs, while good for career value and five-year consecutive peaks, do understate the value of a player’s best three seasons, as they flatten out the peaks and valleys in individual seasons. For this reasons, I’ll use the unadjusted 84 figure here.

Comparable career win shares, C: Mickey Cochrane 275, Bill Freehan 267, TROUPPE 260+, Lance Parrish 248, and Wally Schang 245. From 1933 to 1936, Trouppe played for a very good Bismarck team that held its own against established Black Baseball clubs. Due to a lack of data, there are no MLEs for those seasons, and credit for them would certainly push Trouppe above 275. Since every eligible MLB catcher with 267+ career win shares is in the BBFHOF, Trouppe exceeds the cutoff mark here.

Best three seasons: Bill Dickey 87, Ted Simmons 86, TROUPPE 84, Roger Bresnahan 83, Gene Tenace 83, Darren Daulton 83, Gabby Hartnett 80. Trouppe is in the gray area.

Best five consecutive seasons: Elston Howard 119, Roger Bresnahan 116, Gabby Hartnett 114, QUINCY TROUPPE 113, Mickey Tettleton 111, Thurman Munson 111, Carlton Fisk 106. Again, Trouppe lands in the gray area.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

The ink and HOF Standards tests aren’t applicable here. While Trouppe is not in Cooperstown, he is in the Hall of Merit.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Between 1933 and 1936, Trouppe was playing high-level ball with an independent Bismarck team, but statistics from that period are limited.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

I believe that Trouppe is the best eligible catcher outside the BBFHOF. He has the lead in career value, and is in the gray area in the peak measures.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Before the playing time adjustment was made, Trouppe was credited with 31 win shares in 1946. That would have been Trouppe’s only season with 30+ win shares, according to the MLEs.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Trouppe was named to five teams for the East-West game, and probably would have been on several more had it not been for all his years in Mexico. Trouppe has seven seasons that come out to 20+ win shares, and that is the lower limit for post-1920 catchers. He might have had another one or two with Bismarck, but we don’t have data for those years.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

At his best, yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Not that I know of.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

As far as I can tell, yes.

CONCLUSION: Trouppe really did come along twenty years too soon. The fact that he played for so many teams, all for short periods of time, kept him from being associated with any one club, and that hurt him when Negro League players were finally recognized. It didn’t help that several of those teams were outside the organized Negro Leagues (Bismarck, the Mexican League teams). Also, Josh Gibson was, by far, the best catcher in baseball during Trouppe’s peak.

However, the statistical analysis at baseballthinkfactory has cleared away a lot of the screens standing between us and Trouppe. Trouppe’s peak puts him in the gray area for the BBFHOF, and his total career value puts him in the “admit-me” realm. He also had seven documented seasons with 20+ win shares, which seems to be the real cut-off line for catchers (Hartnett had seven such seasons, and, as of February 2008, Ivan Rodriguez also has seven). Trouppe’s record as a catcher makes him deserving of the BBFHOF.

from pages 50-53 of the recent book on the Mexican Leagues, South of the Color Barrier by John Virtue and p. 347 of Riley's Negro League Biographical Encyclopedia: some teammates of Trouppe's on the Bismarck, ND team: Satchel Paige (!!), Hilton Smith (!), Red Haley of the Memphis Red Sox, Double Duty Radcliffe (six Negro League all star games, though probably some duplicates in a year because they often played two), Barney Morris (made 2 Negro League All-Star games) and Chet Brewer (again a Negro League multiple season all-star) and Roosevelt Davis (Pittsburgh Crawfords and Cleveland Buckeyes). That Bismarck team was a true powerhouse.

Also, the way I came up with the comparison of Ted Simmons for Trouppe:
Quincy Trouppe

Trouppe's projection is missing four early years in his career when he played for a good independent team in Bismarck, ND, after he'd already shown he could play some in the Negro Leagues. If we had those years, he'd probably have more plate appearances but a lower OPS+. Given the lack of good switch hitting catchers, Ted Simmons seems a rather good match if we keep all that in mind:

player…...	hand	PA	avg	obp	slg	OPS+	pos
Trouppe..	B	8462	270	372	407	119	C/3B/OF
T. Simmons	B	9685	285	348	437	117	c/1B

[jalbright]

I'm also starting to think about how I handle this project once I get to going annually (starting with 2012).

I'm thinking I'll let the three elected players a year go one more year than planned and go to two a year once we get to going annually.

I think I want to reduce the size of the list of candidates once we go annual.
-----That said, I want to first keep everyone who ever drew at least three votes for election.
-----I also want to make sure players get plenty of opportunity to be voted on. With that in mind, anyone who became eligible after 1960 will stay on the list.
-----Recognizing that there still may be quality candidates among those candidates who became eligible before 1960, I'll hold an election for at least the top 25 candidates among that group, probably more like two or three elections to get 40-60 candidates from that group to keep on the list. That means I'll still have a list of over100 names and probably over 200, but that's far less than the 550+ we're looking at right now.

My goal is to eliminate a bunch of candidates who did enough to make my more comprehensive list, but are not likely to ever draw significant interest. I'm thinking if people want to join in the project once it's gone annual, I don't want them to be intimidated by the size of the list any more than necessary. Also, a list that size is even a bit unwieldy for me to deal with. I think those problems are minimal until we have nearly a year's break from voting, but I think once we have that hiatus, they'll be significant enough to merit these steps.

If you have any thoughts on these proposed steps, I welcome your feedback.

[Brad Harris]

So the pre-1960 candidates would be vetted by way of a few nominating elections so as to pare down the list?

Love the idea of keeping the three-per-year format.

[jalbright]

First, I'd only be keeping the three per year format one more year. It was meant to mimic the HOF, and once we caught up, 2 per season has been the norm. That will stay until it's clear that two per year is out of step with Cooperstown.

I looked at the list some more. We're adding more names per year (expansion brings more players), and the list of post 1960 players will still be quite large (over 300 names). Anybody who got three or more votes in a single election without eventually being inducted will be carried over. There are 22 such names, most of which are pre-1960. On top of that I'm looking at taking the top 40 or so pre 1960 names, probably in two elections where everyone can list 20 names, and we take the top 20 from that election. My feeling is anybody outside the top 40 after all that has no realistic chance of election. I mean, we'd only be eliminating people who 1) have been eligible for over 50 years 2) who have also never garnered three votes in any one election and 3) who can't finish in the top 40 of candidates meeting those two criteria. I just don't think I'd be eliminating any viable candidates, especially when we'll only be taking two new inductees a year.

[jalbright]

Here's the list of candidates who have received three votes in a single election:

Aparicio, Luis
Beckley, Jake
Berger, Wally
Brock, Lou
Brown, Willard
Cepeda, Perucho
Dandridge, Ray
Duffy, Hugh
Evans, Darrell
Freehan, Bill
Grimes, Burleigh
Joss, Addie
Keller, Charlie
Kelley, Joe
Klein, Chuck
Maranville, Rabbit
McVey, Cal
Mullane, Tony
Rixey, Eppa
Roush, Edd
Sheckard, Jimmy
Wynn, Jimmy

Some of these guys will be elected, but others will reach this list.

[jjpm74]

Keep only those players who received at least 3 votes and poll the participants and have them add a list of 50 names they could see themselves eventually supporting. Anyone who appears on 3 lists + anyone who received at least 3 votes in a given election would make up the new master list of carryovers.

[Brad Harris]

Sounds good, Jim.

Any plans to pare down the candidate list for contributors?

[jalbright]

When it comes to the contributors,
1) I'm not sure if we'll keep it going, so planning for that day is not as necessary this early given that it may be moot; and
2) the list is large, but not so daunting; and
3) the list isn't growing as fast relative to the number of openings as the player list.

[jalbright]

Reminder PM sent to the only voter from last election yet to vote, Paul Wendt.

[J W]

Still no love for Joe Sewell? 2200+ hits in 14 seasons, career OBP of .391? Closest comp is Billy Herman?

[jjpm74]

I have shortstops ranked as follows:

1. Phil Rizzuto--I like him more as a player, but his combined career is where he is getting support, so he stays on my contributor ballot until he gets elected.

2. Perucho Cepeda--Also a first baseman. Hit over .400 in the Puerto Rican league at the position. One of the underrated players here who's career is difficult to digest because of league quality and the color line.

3. Rabbit Maranville--His defensive value relative to the league when he played pushes him over the edge and onto my ballot (barely).

4. Dave Bancroft--Also an excellent glovesman, but not of the caliber of Maranville. His HOF monitor, black and blue ink, defensive value put him in the gray area, but he has a shot of making my ballot.

5. Joe Sewell--Not as good defensively as Bancroft, but better offensively than both Maranville and Bancroft.

3, 4 and 5 are not far off from each other and I can be convinced to support any of the 3 with some discussion.

Looking ahead to the next election, my next three are Schang, Duffy, C. Jones with Trouppe, Freehan, Roush and J. Kelley not far behind. I have Schang, Trouppe and Freehan lumped close together all time at their primary position, but give Schang an edge because of how he stood out relative to his era vs. Freehan and Trouppe. With the recent discussion and support of Trouppe, I will probably add him ahead of Freehan when I get an empty slot on my ballot.

[J W]

I see. I may bump Rizzuto up the Contributor list if he's getting combo-credit. I wasn't really giving him that before.

Defensive WAR sees Sewell barely above neutral career-wise. I was not under that impression; old articles always seemed to praise his defense. Is this a simple case of overestimation because he had such a good eye at the plate? I do have more faith in offensive WAR and Sewell looks like this compared to the rest (sans Cepeda):

Sewell - 48.2 in 8329 PA (48.4 total)
Bancroft - 39.1 in 8244 PA (46.4 total)
Rizzuto - 30.8 in 6711 PA (41.8 total)
Maranville - 26.4 in 11256 PA (38.2 total)

Sewell was simply the better hitter. So the way I see it, either he had a darn good glove (obviously not on the level of Maranville), or he was average at best as a SS in which case he still grades out higher overall than the other three when factoring in his bat.

I'm taking a closer look at Sewell's move to 3B now. Sewell moved to 3B in 1929 after playing there sparingly in 1928. Replacing him was Jackie Tavener formerly of the Detroit Tigers; his nickname was "Rabbit" I assume after Maranville. Well, '29 was his last major league season after hitting a miserable 51 OPS+ and lasting only 292 PA... and even his defensive metrics were up-and-down. SS Ray Gardner was called up and didn't fare much better. 1930 saw another SS-by-committee between Jonah Goldman, Ed Montague, Carl Lind and Gardner. Meanwhile, their incumbent 3B Johnny Hodapp was moved to 2B to replace Lind. Frankly I don't know what to make of it all, but the team record did improve from '28 to '29.

When Sewell went to New York, they initially had Lyn Lary at SS, who according to the B-Ref numbers had a worse glove. He soon gave way to youngster Frankie Crosetti who developed into a fairly slick fielder in his own right. Sewell was on the wrong side of 30 but was turning in positive years with the glove at 3B. In the end, according to BB-Ref 5 of the 7 years where he gave a positive dWAR were at 3B. So I'm wondering if my research comes from word uttered in New York during his years manning the hot corner.

[jalbright]

I see. I may bump Rizzuto up the Contributor list if he's getting combo-credit. I wasn't really giving him that before.

Contributors whould always be evaluated on the total contributions they made to the game, whether it be on the field or in an office or elsewhere.

[jalbright]

There's just over a day and a half left in this election as I type this, should anyone else wish to participate.