1998 Best of Baseball election thread

[jalbright]

We now have a quorum on both sides of the ballot.

[Brad Harris]

We now have a quorum on both sides of the ballot.

And there was much rejoicing...

[Captain Cold Nose]

And there was much rejoicing...

Way to keep with the holiday.

[Brad Harris]

With respect to some of next year's newcomers, I present the following as discussion starters...

Andre Dawson versus Dewey Evans

Ozzie Smith versus Perucho Cepeda

Dennis Eckersley versus Rick Reuschel

[Brad Harris]

Dennis Eckersley's career breaks down into two parts: the starter (thru age 31) and the reliever (age 32 on). Looking at contemporary pitchers of comparable value, Eckersley's career is essentially the first half of Kevin Appier's career with the back half of Doug Jones' career tacked onto it. Contrast this to Reuschel, who was substantially more productive in both halves of his career and I don't see how you can rank the Hall of Famer over already supported Reuschel.

[jalbright]

We've gotten ballots from everyone who voted last time. I won't be pushing the end of the election up, though. Hopefully, we can generate some discussion, as Brad Harris has tried to--and I'll join in on shortly.

There will be new crops of players and contributors next time around. The players add:

Carter , Gary
Dawson , Andre
Eckersley , Dennis
Hernandez , Willie
Honeycutt , Rick
Ochiai , Hiromitsu
Randolph , Willie
Smith , Ozzie
Tudor , John
Valentine , Ellis

The contributors add:

Anderson , Sparky
Flood , Curt
Selig , Bud

For me, Sparky will make the contributor ballot--I'm not sure if Bud will ever get my vote, but if he does, it will be after a few more seasons of baseball's regeneration after the 1994 strike.

The players leave me with difficult decisions. I'd like to take five of them (in no particular order: Dawson, Eckersley, Ochiai, Carter, O. Smith--and Randolph would interest me as well in a leaner year), but it appears I'll only have two slots open. I feel a need to take Eck, Carter and Ozzie, which means Hugh Duffy probably goes back into the queue again as he's not drawing any other support. I doubt I'll make room for Dawson this time around, which brings me to Ochiai versus Trouppe. Since some folks have said they'll support Trouppe, I suspect I'll hold off on Ochiai for one year, but I'm not sure of that.

[jalbright]

With respect to some of next year's newcomers, I present the following as discussion starters...

Ozzie Smith versus Perucho Cepeda

Dennis Eckersley versus Rick Reuschel

These two matches aren't a big deal to me as both sets will be on my ballot. I can't get overly excited about the order in which they're place. That said, Ozzie versus Perucho is a classic of glove versus bat. Ozzie had a nice bat for a shortstop, but he wasn't one of the better hitters of his time like Perucho. So Cepeda has a significant edge as a batter, probably mostly in terms of power hitting, which Ozzie didn't do much of. Now, Ozzie is generally regarded as the best fielding shortstop ever, or at least very close to that. So he's going to make up ground with the leather. My research indicates Cepeda was well regarded with the glove, but more as a "good" than "great" fielder. My gut feeling is Cepeda's bat more than covers that edge Ozzie has with the leather.

[jalbright]

It's also a good place to make sure people are aware of Ochiai, so here goes:

Hiromitsu Ochiai

Japanese Record

He thought more like American players, which was an impediment to Japanese baseball's insistence on conformity. He bucked the system, which meant he spent a few years in Japan's industrial leagues before getting his chance in their top league. He won 3 Triple Crowns, 2 of them consecutively, was the first Japanese player ever to have consecutive 50 homer seasons, won 10 Best Nines at three different positions (2B, 1B, and 3B), 2 MVPs, 5 batting titles, 5 homer titles and 5 RBI titles. He also led in runs five times and slugging percentage four times. On the career level, he's 6th in homers, 9th in hits, 7th in average, 5th in RBI, 7th in runs, 8th in total bases, second in walks, and second in slugging percentage. I rank him as the seventh best player in Japanese baseball history overall and as the best player there in the eighties. In Baseball's Other Stars, he makes backup teams for both McNeil and Fujisawara.

Japanese Stats

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	avg	obp	slg
7627	1335	2371	371	13	510	1564	1476	0.311	0.422	0.564

Leron Lee from the Fitts book: .

Except for his defense, probably the best player I saw was Hiromitsu Ochiai. He had a very unorthodox swing. You couldn't pitch him in, and he could also hit the ball away. . . He was pretty confident--not arrogant--but not scared. . .[W]hen he hit the ball, it really jumped off his bat. He had good power. . . Ochiai was . . .strong as a bull, and aggressive. I think most of his problems came with the press because he told people exactly what he thought, and Japanese aren't supposed to do that. . . [H]e came out and said," I'm going to win this title" [and then did it].

Boomer Wells from the Fitts book: "[M]an, Ochiai could hit! He had this attitude, because he knew he could hit."

Alonzo Powell, again from the Fitts book:

Ochiai was basically an American in a Japanese body. He did everything American style. If he didn't want to take batting practice one day, Ochiai didn't take batting practice. If Ochiai didn't want to take infield, Ochiai didn't take infield. That was totally opposite of everyone else in Japan. . . Everybody told him he couldn't succeed that way, but he was the type of guy that was out to prove that they were wrong. . . . {When he left Powell's team as a free agent,] [t]he thing we missed most about Ochiai was his experience and his knowledge. That was irreplaceable.

MLB Projection:

AB	H	2B	3B	HR	avg	obp	slg
8873	2561	399	30	354	0.289	0.396	0.460

This projection indicates he would have met 55 HOF standards.

Ochiai's resistance to the Japanese way of doing things delayed his entry into NPB. However, his ideas were much more compatible with major league thinking, so it's likely he would have started his career earlier in the majors than he did in Japan. If I had a way to project when he would have started in the majors and how he would have performed which I had confidence in, I would use that and shave off the several unproductive (at a major league level) years I left on at the end of his career. If I could do so, I am confident his projection would look even more impressive than the projection I am actually using. Even so, Ochiai's list of the ten most comparable major leaguers has three Hall of Famers in Tony Perez, Al Kaline and Billy Williams. He has four more guys who finished in the top 10 in BBWAA voting for the Hall in Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans, Ron Santo and Steve Garvey. The list of ten is rounded out with Chili Davis, Dave Parker and Harold Baines.

His projected OPS of 856 beats all of his ten most comparable players. Further, I think his defensive contributions would likely resemble those of Perez and Williams, which further distances him from Garvey, Davis and Baines.

I also looked at his projected seasons on an individual basis here: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...32.html#Ochiai His 1985 Triple Crown year was quite comparable to George Brett's excellent campaign that year. Overall, I looked at eight seasons of his career, and he could have been an all-star each time. There's little doubt he deserved it in five of those years, two of which were MVP candidate-type years. One of the two MVP candidate years (1985) was even around the level of a "historic season". In those eight seasons, he was worth at least 197 win shares, and probably more like 221. He had nine other full time seasons and three other part time years in his projected career, even without giving him any extra years for an earlier start. He certainly should have surpassed 350 career win shares, which is a level at which over 80% of the eligible players are in Cooperstown.

[Domenic]

Carter, Eckersley, and Smith are locks for my ballot, and Dawson and Ochiai are fairly close, as well. I've been tinkering with my ballot from year to year as I do a bit more research over time ... so they could all make the cut in what is becoming a weakened class on the whole (for the better, in my mind).

Anderson is a lock on the contributor side, and Selig is a maybe.

[jalbright]

I'm also toying with the idea of holding an election or two after 2011 to bring the Negro Leaguers and MLB player total in line with Cooperstown's. I'm not sure if that translates exactly to one more player for each Japanese league player we elect, and I'm considering putting Pete Rose and Joe Jackson into the group we compensate for as well.

[Jar of Flies]

Prelim Ballot for 1999: Assuming Brett is elected and the remaining players from my 1998 ballot are holdovers.

1 Gary Carter
2 Ozzie Smith
3 Dennis Eckersley
4 Charlie Keller
5 Rick Reuschel
6 Dwight Evans
7 Dick Lundy
8 Masaaki Koyama
9 Darrell Evans
10 Hiromitsu Ochiai
11 Jimmy Sheckard
12 Reggie Smith

I have Ozzie rated at #2 thanks to his all-time great defense and fine bat. He was quite valuable above the replacement shortstop in his day - ie - Rafael Ramirez accrued nearly 6000 PA with almost zero value, along with Alfredo Griffin at 7330 PA!.

I am tentatively placing Ochiai at #10, which seems reasonable or conservative if you believe in the estimates jalbright has made.

I have Dawson as worthy of a ballot selection in a backlog year, while Randolph is a bubble candidate.

The only time I can remember Dawson being infuriated: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAKkHxkkCyA

Jalbright from post 35:

I'm also toying with the idea of holding an election or two after 2011 to bring the Negro Leaguers and MLB player total in line with Cooperstown's. I'm not sure if that translates exactly to one more player for each Japanese league player we elect, and I'm considering putting Pete Rose and Joe Jackson into the group we compensate for as well.

I am in favor of matching the Cooperstown total, plus ineligibles Rose, Jackson, and the Japanese league electees.

[Brad Harris]

Preliminary ballot for 1999 with the expectation that my top two from '98 will be elected:

1. Gary Carter
2. Hiromitsu Ochiai

If Ochiai's MLB projections are remotely accurate then we're looking at a man who would be #1 on a lot of ballots had he been born in North America. I was going to be more conservative than the 2 slot, but given how I'm confident Ochiai is the best available outfielder and how I've got other OFers ranked, this is a tentative showing for him.

3. Dwight Evans
4. Perucho Cepeda
5. Masaaki Koyama
6. Rick Reuschel
7. Andre Dawson
8. Ozzie Smith
9. Jimmy Sheckard
10. Darrell Evans
11. Dennis Eckersley
12. Bill Freehan

With five freshmen hitting my top twelve spots and only two open spots, I'm saying goodbye to Hernandez, McVey and Reggie Smith temporarily.

On the contributor side, Sparky will claim a spot. I can't see Selig ever garnering my vote.

[jjpm74]

I'm also toying with the idea of holding an election or two after 2011 to bring the Negro Leaguers and MLB player total in line with Cooperstown's. I'm not sure if that translates exactly to one more player for each Japanese league player we elect, and I'm considering putting Pete Rose and Joe Jackson into the group we compensate for as well.

If you do, make a distinction indicating that they were elected after 2011.

Ohiai's comps are enough to give me pause here. I don't think highly of Tony Perez and only consider Billy Williams a definite HOFer out of the lot. He will make my queue and rank somehere around Dwight Evans. Gary Carter and Ozzie Smith will debut 1 and 2. Eckersley ranks just ahead of Urban Shocker, so he has an outside shot of making my ballot at #12 next election depending on who is elected. Andre Dawson will have to wait. On the contributor's side, Sparky Anderson will definitely be on my ballot next year. Selig won't be there anytime soon.

[jalbright]

Ohiai's comps are enough to give me pause here. I don't think highly of Tony Perez and only consider Billy Williams a definite HOFer out of the lot. He will make my queue and rank somehere around Dwight Evans. Gary Carter and Ozzie Smith will debut 1 and 2. Eckersley ranks just ahead of Urban Shocker, so he has an outside shot of making my ballot at #12 next election depending on who is elected. Andre Dawson will have to wait. On the contributor's side, Sparky Anderson will definitely be on my ballot next year. Selig won't be there anytime soon.

I understand the reluctance. That said, remember that the post specifies that 1) Ochiai's projection is better than all of his comps (except maybe Kaline), and 2) there's a good reason to believe that Ochiai was in fact better than his projection (the late start due to his nonconformism). Now I understand seeing Perez, Garvey, Parker et al as short of the mark, but at worst, they're the guys who help define the in/out line. You don't have to be a lot better than them to be worthy--and IMHO Ochiai was definitely better than them.

[jalbright]

We're in the last four hours of this election, if anyone else cares to participate.

[jalbright]

With 12 player ballots and 10 contributor ballots, we have inducted George Brett, Addie Joss and Charlie Keller on the player side, and Vic Harris on the contributor side.

Here are the official results, players first:

Players…………..	votes	pts
Brett, Geroge	12	144
Joss , Addie	6	61
Keller , C	7	59
Roush , Edd 	6	54
Hernandez, K	11	43
Evans, Dwight	5	39
Brock, Lou	5	38
Cepeda, Perucho	5	37
Rixey , Eppa	5	36
Reuschel, Rick	6	33
Koyama, Masaaki	5	30
Sheckard , J	5	30
Freehan, Bill	7	29
Aparicio, Luis	5	26
Grimes , B	3	26
Beckley , Jake	4	24
Berger , Wally	3	23
Smith, Reggie	5	23
Bando, Sal	3	20
McVey , Cal	3	20
Evans, Darrell	3	17
Childs , Cupid	2	13
Shocker, Urban	3	13
Howard, Frank	1	8
Lundy , Dick	1	8
Sewell , Joe	1	8
Cepeda, Orlando	1	7
Fingers, Rollie	1	7
Matlock, Leroy	1	7
Trouppe, Quincy	1	7
Gomez, Lefty	1	6
Pike , Lip	1	6
Mullane , Tony	1	5
Duffy , Hugh	2	4
Maranville , R	1	4
Bancroft , Dave	1	3
Dandridge, Ray	2	3
Newcombe, Don	1	3
Pierce, Billy	2	3
Leach , Tommy	1	2
Perez, Tony	2	2
Richardson , H	1	2
Schang, Wally	1	2
Pesky, Johnny	1	1

Now the contributors:

contributors….	votes	pts
Harris, Vic	7	22
Caylor , O. P.	5	19
Scully, Vin	7	18
Ferguson, Bob	6	14
Abe, Iso	4	13
Evans, Billy	4	12
Williams, Dick	5	10
Elias, Al Munro	3	9
Chandler, Happy	1	5
Jobe, Frank	1	5
Pesky , Johnny	1	5
Caray, Harry	1	4
Martin, Billy	1	4
Smith, Red	1	4
Harvey, Doug	1	2
McCarthy, Tommy	1	2
O'Doul, Lefty	1	2