Could Age & Complacency Lead To a Phillies Collapse at Mid-Decade?

[philliesfiend55]

Could Age & Complacency Lead To a Phillies Collapse by 2014 or 2015?

There is a prime precedent for this possibility. If you remember or have read of the New York Yankees 1960s teams . After winning their fifth straight pennant in in 1964, it seemed like many of the key players Mantle, Maris, Ford, Elston Howard and others got old and ineffective almost overnight. This resulted in an under .500 finish in 1965, a last place finish in 1966, and an 11-year drought, where no Yankees team won their division until 1976.
Right now, The Phillies are about the oldest team in baseball.
Their main prospects are at the Double A level or lower. They won't get much help from AAA Lehigh Valley this year. Most of their prospects who are closest to reaching the majors are pitchers, They have some serious problems if they are going to restock key non-pitcher positions from the farm system.
Management is committed to several over-30 stars.
An important decison must be made on Jimmy Rollins, 32, at the end of this season. He's running the bases well and hitting for average, but he's not hitting for as much power as he has in the past.
General Manager Ruben Amaro is not cast in the mold of a Brian Cashman or "Trader" Frank Lane who made moves just to shake up their teams, bring in some new blood, and change the team chemistry a little. With their jobs seemingly assured players can become complacent and 22 of the 25 man Opening Day roster were Phillies last year. A 23rd player, Cliff Lee had been a Phillie in 2009.
Only utility infielder, Pete Orr and utility infielder-outfielder Michael Martinez were new to the Phillies on Opening Day. As utility players their impact on the team has been modest. One other player has debuted this year- Late April callup, relief pitcher Michael Stutes. Pitcher Vance Worley, who debuted last year has been called up from the minors and contributed a few good starts but is now back in the minors.
Amaro seems to make few personnel moves unless circumstances such as injuries dictate such changes.
They have made some poor choices in first round and other high draft choices in recent years (Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Joe Savery, Kelly Dugan & others) who have floundered in the minors.
They have traded away a lot of young talent from the farm system that has reached the major leagues and are becoming stars for other teams (Michaekl Bourn, Gio Gonzalez, Kyle Drabek) and with those trades the Phillies gained major league ready talent in the short term, but they have gotten older. Other recent Phillies trades should produce quality major leagues talent for other teams in the near future (Anthony Gose, Adrian Cardenas, Michael Taylor etc.).

What do you think? Have the Phillies sacrificed short-term success through 2012 or 2013 for major problems and perhaps a huge downturn in the following years?

- Dennis Orlandini - (philliesfiend55) -

[philliesfiend55]

Here's kind of a postscript to my first post. In Philadelphia papers today the are stories that Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino and possibly Michael Stutes should be put on the Disabled List. Amaro, in typical fashion, prefers to try to let these injuries work themselves out without resorting to puting a player on the Disabled List unless the injury is serious and avoiding calling a new guy up from the minors. Seems like he's committed to a style where he wants to make as few mid-season personnel changes as possible, even though such changes would be beneficial to the team.
Basically he's rather play one posiition player roster space short and hope that Victorino's injury isn't so serious that he'll be able to use him again in less time than the Disabled List minimum of 15 days rather than call someone up from AAA and have an extra useable player. Among pitchers the same situation exists with Joe Blanton. Amaro would rather see if Blanton can ride out his injury and shoulder soreness rather than call up Vance Worley again (who was great in his brief time in the majors) or another minor leaguer who would be healthier than Blanton.

[KCGHOST]

In three years time this is certainly possible without some infusion of new talent. All the position key players will be 33+ and only Hamels at 30 would be considered still in his prime as a pitcher.

[jalbright]

Age is definitely a risk, but one that may be hard to avoid and still remain in the hunt for World Series rings. I haven't seen complacency yet, but it could set in and cause serious problems. I don't envy that part of Ruben Amaro's job.

[Mongoose]

Weird thread. You've got the best paper team in baseball, even with injuries they're still winning, and instead of being happy you're looking ahead to when the roster begins to age in a few years.

Just enjoy what you have now. Believe me, it could be much worse.

[jalbright]

Weird thread. You've got the best paper team in baseball, even with injuries they're still winning, and instead of being happy you're looking ahead to when the roster begins to age in a few years.

Just enjoy what you have now. Believe me, it could be much worse.

In many ways, I agree with this premise. Right now, I'm more worried about fixing the offense so they can support their pitching in the playoffs--and Utley and Brown should certainly help there. Probably the biggest concern I have at this point is that they could be vulnerable to lefties--after all, they were in the playoffs last year, and then they had Werth from the right side.