Red Sox offseason 2011-2012

[Therwil Flyer]

Well it all depends, If anyone believe that Theo has made mistakes with big FA signings and bad trades? If the answer is yes and while i believe that Theo has done a good job in general, but has made quite a few mistakes in trades and free agents signings. Baird is Theo's right hand man, the main voice he hears in players movement. Baird perhaps has done some good work scouting the Independent leagues, (if you have been reading Peter Gammons reports) but when it comes reports of FA or for trades it has been poor.

Interesting, what is the evidence that Baird plays a bigger role in the signings of say Lackey or Lugo than anyone else in the Sox FO? Is there any evidence that Baird played a bigger role in the bad FA signings and trades than in the good ones?
Again, not saying they should make him Assistant GM, but always thought of Baird as someone who was quite universally held in high regard, so am a bit surprised here.

[scaffolds]

Interesting, what is the evidence that Baird plays a bigger role in the signings of say Lackey or Lugo than anyone else in the Sox FO? Is there any evidence that Baird played a bigger role in the bad FA signings and trades than in the good ones?
Again, not saying they should make him Assistant GM, but always thought of Baird as someone who was quite universally held in high regard, so am a bit surprised here.

Ofcourse he plays a role in the good FA signing and trades, as much as he does in the bad ones, just that i believe that there has been more bad ones (specially in big contracts) than good ones.

PS Allard Baird is in charge of profesional scouting, he has 10 scouts and 2 consusltatnts that works for him, they scouts minor league games and ML games (no amateur games) and they send those reports to Baird. Baird also goes out to games too.

[Therwil Flyer]

It looks like compesation can't be anyone in the Cubs 40 man roster, but i am hearing that the Red Sox are asking for $'s as compesation.

If I understood correctly, the Cubs have to pay a 3.5m termination fee in Theo's contract with the Sox. But if the Sox indeed do not get any interesting players/prospects in return, I'd be very disappointed. CHiSox got compensation for Guillen, Mariners got compensation for Pinella. If trading a manager gets compensated then trading one of the best GMs should get top compensation, no? And of course getting a serious pitching prospect back should have more value to the Sox than getting some $ back, no?

[scaffolds]

If I understood correctly, the Cubs have to pay a 3.5m termination fee in Theo's contract with the Sox. But if the Sox indeed do not get any interesting players/prospects in return, I'd be very disappointed. CHiSox got compensation for Guillen, Mariners got compensation for Pinella. If trading a manager gets compensated then trading one of the best GMs should get top compensation, no? And of course getting a serious pitching prospect back should have more value to the Sox than getting some $ back, no?

The Cubs minor league system isn't very good, specially at the top of the system (ML ready prospect) however it has some very promising Latin prospects. If the White Sox got two decent prospects from the Marlins for Guillen the Red Sox have to do better than that, but of course all depends how much cash they want back.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

If I understood correctly, the Cubs have to pay a 3.5m termination fee in Theo's contract with the Sox. But if the Sox indeed do not get any interesting players/prospects in return, I'd be very disappointed. CHiSox got compensation for Guillen, Mariners got compensation for Pinella. If trading a manager gets compensated then trading one of the best GMs should get top compensation, no? And of course getting a serious pitching prospect back should have more value to the Sox than getting some $ back, no?

Absolutely! They better get Jackson the OF. He is at least a trade chip. Because the Cubs traded their best pitching prospect Archer, I think there is nobody who fits the bill: "good pitching prospect" in the Cubs system.

Apparently Epstein wanted out in 2012 at the latest. I think he wanted Lucchino's place. But that's just my guess.

[Therwil Flyer]

I think there is nobody who fits the bill: "good pitching prospect" in the Cubs system.

You are correct. Mea culpa! But they need to get something of value in return! They (the Sox) are a big market team, prospects have more value to them than cash! Unless of course we are talking enough cash to fully support Lackey's contract and we then send Lackey and that cash to wherever for a good pitching prospect. Pipe dreams, I know.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Now they are telling us that it was Henry and Lucchino leaking all this ugly information out!

I don't get it anymore. This is a nasty mess. Someone has to stop it. Because if I was a GM or a manager right now, I would be wondering if I wanted to do this with all the leakers and the traitors and the beer drinkers during games.

[Therwil Flyer]

Why does it always have to be ugly when someone leaves the Sox? Manny, Nomar, Damon, Grady Little, always a PR mess...

[Mike D.]

Why does it always have to be ugly when someone leaves the Sox? Manny, Nomar, Damon, Grady Little, always a PR mess...

It's a thing...and goes back way further...Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Mo Vaughn.

[scaffolds]

There are reports that Mike Hazen will be the Sox assistant GM, not the experience baseball man that i was talking about earlier.

[Boston Boxer]

Boxer, we are all disturbed and agitated over that article but let's not base all of our offseason decisions on that (I've argued trading Beckett and Youks for completely different reasons than that). But what do we really know. Take Youkilis for example, he made a comment about the Ellsbury situation last year and in the article that is twisted into him being a clubhouse cancer. The beer drinkers/playstation gamers reported are Lackey, Beckett and Lester, so do we get rid of Lester as well? Why do we part ways with David Ortiz? Has he been a clubhouse cancer too? Drinking Beer?
When Kevin Millar and the rest of the super loose "Idiots" took Jack Daniels shots before a playoff game in 2004 (as a sort of team building pregame ritual) would the media have turned that into a lack of discipline and leadership and called for heads to roll had they not won?

im with you brother...just really pissed how this all turned out. That is the thing about the evil Boston media...they can spin with the best of them. There is a fine line between winning and losing in Boston. No matter how you do it, just win and all is overlooked. I am easily sucked into the media. I live in Colorado, and the Boston media is all i have to go on. Sad to see Tito and Theo go, but it is a new day. Got to move on i guess.

[Therwil Flyer]

There are reports that Mike Hazen will be the Sox assistant GM, not the experience baseball man that i was talking about earlier.

Not the "outsider" I was kinda hoping for. Hazen was with Ben in his Cleveland Indians time, right? What else do we know about him?

[SwissRedSoxFan]

The Red Sox mess inspired Palm Beach Post reporter Joe Capozzi, who covers the Florida Marlins, to call former Marlins manager Jack McKeon, who managed Beckett when he was with the Marlins and won a World Series for Florida in 2003. McKeon said he used to lock the clubhouse in order to keep Beckett and former Sox pitcher Brad Penny in the dugout during games.
McKeon even resorted to keeping a stack of bathroom passes in the dugout.
“In between innings they’d go to the clubhouse to get a drink or hang out,’’ McKeon told Capozzi.
“I said, ‘Hey, I got no rule against going up if you have to go to the bathroom or something, but get back.’ A couple of times I looked down the bench to talk to somebody and they weren’t there. They were in the clubhouse. So I went up and got them out and said, ‘OK, boys that’s it. We’ll lock the door.’”
McKeon had a similar recollection back in June, when he was rehired as Marlins' manager, but told the story more colorfully back then:
“I would go in the clubhouse with bat and (say) ‘Get your asses out of here!’” he said.
McKeon also recalled how he handed out what he called “poo-poo cards and pee-pee cards. Put them where I was sitting (in the dugout), so if you wanted to go to the bathroom, you had to get a card. That broke it up.''

2012, we need pee-pee-cards and poo-poo-cards as well.

Later, in the interview conducted by Baseball Tonight’s Steve Berthiaume, Schilling said: “Again, the information coming out in this article couldn’t have come from other people. It could have been sourced through other people, but it had to start at the top.

Schilling thinks that it was the ownership that leaked the Francona stuff, which is nobodies business. And especially, there is doctors secrecy in Switzerland. Does this count for the US too?

The Boston Globe is still owned by The New York Times. And The New York Times still owns 16.6 percent of New England Sports Ventures. And New England Sports Ventures still owns the Red Sox, Fenway Park, and much of NESN, among other stuff.

Keith Olbermann thinks so too.

To sum it up. There are a lot of questions to be answered in Boston. What will Lucchino say when confronted, that he leaked this Francona stuff out? What will he say when asked, why the **** he let the best GM go? And also, why are the three SP's not defending themselves. Schilling said: "If my name is in that article, my press conference starts five seconds after that’s over."

The Francona stuff is disgusting. But the clubhouse needs to be locked and those pitchers will be obliged to watch 162 games. I would make sure that happens. Poo-poo-cards included.

[Therwil Flyer]

Enough about the Theo, Tito, ownership soap opera. I'm sick of it. Let's talk on field issues, starting with RF.
- Drew is gone. Inhouse options are Reddick, Kalish, MacDonald. Kalish underwent surgery and is unlikely to take over until later in 2012.
- The Sox need some cheap young players (such as Reddick or Kalish) to be able to afford the more expensive ones (Gonzalez, Crawford etc), So it's not like they can just spend the 14m they save from Drew on a new RF.
- That being said, if another one of the more expensive players isn't coming back (e.g. Ortiz) that could open up some cash to spend in RF.
- Scenario 1: Reddick is the starting RF, Kalish joins him mid 2012, one of them hopefully turns into Ellsbury v2.0
- Scenario 2: There is some talk (Joel Sherman) that the Yanks might not bring back Swisher. Would he accept a short term deal (or until Brentz is ready)? He could make up some of the production that is lost when Ortiz isn't resigned. He's a switch hitter and also a pretty good fielder (and reportedly a good clubhouse presence). DH spot in that scenario would be used more flexibly with Lavarnway/Youkils/Lowrie/Swisher/Gonzalez playing there from time to time.
- Scenario 3: How cash-strapped are the mlb-run Dodgers? Andre Ethier is their second most expensive player and going into his final Arb year. Reddick+? for Ethier, or am I completely delusional? Ethier is best buddies with Pedroia, so I would assume he's got a similar (workout/on the field) attitude as the little guy.

- The downside of Swish is he has terrible postseason stats and 9&10 won't be happy. The downside of Ethier is he will cost you prospects and his defense is questionable. The downside of Reddick is that we don't know what we will get out of him over a full season.

Addendum: I just looked more closely at Swish and Ethier's stats and they are surprisingly similar players. Swish is also just a year older than Ethier. (They have an identical career 122 wRC+*)
Swish career line: .254 .360 .466 with a .358 wOBA* and an average fielding value* of around 3.6.
Ethier's career line: .291 .364 .479 with a .360 wOBA* and an average fielding value* of around 2.6.

*See fangraphs.com for an explanation. wOBA is similar in interpretation to OPS but on a different scale. wRC+ is essentially park and league adjusted wOBA. Fielding value is derived from UZR.

[Therwil Flyer]

Later, in the interview conducted by Baseball Tonight’s Steve Berthiaume, Schilling said: “Again, the information coming out in this article couldn’t have come from other people. It could have been sourced through other people, but it had to start at the top.

Schilling thinks that it was the ownership that leaked the Francona stuff, which is nobodies business.

Schilling has always had a large mouth, not everything he says should be taken at face value. He is no longer in the organization and needs to shut up.

But apart from that, wherever it came from leaking Francona's personal issues to the press and the press twisting into a He is a drugy who couldn't manage his job nor his private life anymore is absolutely disgusting! As I said every time somebody leaves the Red Sox there seems to be a PR war between all involved parties and stuff that shouldn't become public is printed. It's Boston, we'll survive.

[Therwil Flyer]

- Drew is gone. Inhouse options are Reddick, Kalish, MacDonald. Kalish underwent surgery and is unlikely to take over until later in 2012.
- The Sox need some cheap young players (such as Reddick or Kalish) to be able to afford the more expensive ones (Gonzalez, Crawford etc), So it's not like they can just spend the 14m they save from Drew on a new RF.
- That being said, if another one of the more expensive players isn't coming back (e.g. Ortiz) that could open up some cash to spend in RF.
- Scenario 1: Reddick is the starting RF, Kalish joins him mid 2012, one of them hopefully turns into Ellsbury v2.0
- Scenario 2: There is some talk (Joel Sherman) that the Yanks might not bring back Swisher. Would he accept a short term deal (or until Brentz is ready)? He could make up some of the production that is lost when Ortiz isn't resigned. He's a switch hitter and also a pretty good fielder (and reportedly a good clubhouse presence). DH spot in that scenario would be used more flexibly with Lavarnway/Youkils/Lowrie/Swisher/Gonzalez playing there from time to time.
- Scenario 3: How cash-strapped are the mlb-run Dodgers? Andre Ethier is their second most expensive player and going into his final Arb year. Reddick+? for Ethier, or am I completely delusional? Ethier is best buddies with Pedroia, so I would assume he's got a similar (workout/on the field) attitude as the little guy.

In scenario 1 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Gonzalez/Papi/Youks/Crawford/Scutaro/Reddick/Salty or some form of that.
In scenario 2 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Ethier/Gonzalez/Youks/Crawford/Lavarnway/Scutaro/Salty or some form of that.
In scenario 2 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Crawford/Gonzalez/Swish/Youks/Lavarnway/Scutaro/Salty or some form of that.

All pretty potent lineups.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

In scenario 1 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Gonzalez/Papi/Youks/Crawford/Scutaro/Reddick/Salty or some form of that.
In scenario 2 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Ethier/Gonzalez/Youks/Crawford/Lavarnway/Scutaro/Salty or some form of that.
In scenario 2 the lineup would be Ells/Pedroia/Crawford/Gonzalez/Swish/Youks/Lavarnway/Scutaro/Salty or some form of that.

All pretty potent lineups.

Yes, they are. But the lineup is not the problem anyway.

1. I'm 100% sure, that Reddick will be in RF come 2012. Brentz and Kalish will fight for it in 2013 or earlier.
2. Lavarnway will start the season in AAA and refine his catching skills. After that he has to start fulltime, right? It will be either at DH or replacing Saltalamacchia. Varitek has to go now. Start something new.
3. Middlebrooks, if he gets better and developpes further, will be at 3B in 2013. He also will start at AAA.
4. We have to try resign Ortiz for 1/15. But I think somebody will offer him two guaranteed years after the season he has had.
5. Youkilis will start at 3rd and if Ortiz is gone, he will also see time at DH with Lowrie/Aviles at 3rd. The Youk/Ortiz-era could be over in 2013, when Youkilis gets traded to Cincinatti (a.k.a known as Tschintschinätti) and Ortiz' contract is up.
(6. I would try to trade again for Felix Hernandez. If it takes Ellsbury, do it. His value will never be highera and he is fed up with the Sox since his rib injury.)

2012: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Crawford, Lowrie, Reddick, Salty. Barring any trades.
2013: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Lavarnway, Crawford, Lowrie, Brentz, Middlebrooks, Salty. Barring any trades.

That is kind of self-explaining. Now we should start talking about the rotation. And that leads to the beer drinkers.

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Bard.

If the Red Sox trade for Hernandez, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks etc. are gone. Thats the biggest challenge for Ben Cherington. What to do with the rotation. The lineup is set and there are guys in the minors who will/would fill in for Ortiz/Youk.
Not so much for the rotation. I think a trade has to be made and Lackey has to be fixed. I'm 100% sure he will remain with the Sox in 2012.

[Mike D.]

As far as RF goes, I think that they either go with Reddick/Kalish (with Kalish starting in AAA with McDonald the 4th OF) or sign a moderately priced FA who hits right handed on a 2-3 year deal (Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham). I think they bring Ortiz back, and if that's the case, you don't need a TON of offense from RF.

It'd expect it'd take a lot more than Reddick to land Ethier. That being said, he's a potential FA target after 2012 if the Dodgers don't extend him (they'll try this off-season). Another season to see what they have in Brentz will, as will another year to figure out if Ellsbury is extendable or not.

I think Wakefield and Tek are as good as gone. Varitek's "intangibles" don't mean much if leadership is no longer one of them. Lavarnway is the backup catcher and occasional DH. I think they have Aviiles do some work in the OF over the winter and in the spring, and carry him in the spare IF/5th OF spot.

[Mike D.]

I think it's unrealistic to think the top of the rotation in 2012 is anything other than Lester-Beckett-Buchholz. They'll try to dump Lackey, but will need to find another arm to replace him. I can't imagine trading 2/5 of the rotation PLUS finding a #5 (either internally or externally).

I kind of think they dump Lackey and light a fire under Beckett and Lester. I could see them bringing in a hard-nosed pitching coach to push those guys. I could see Aceves getting a shot for the #5 spot. Bard's landing spot depends a lot of what happens with Papelbon and what they do with Lackey and the #4 spot in the rotation.

[Therwil Flyer]

Yes, they are. But the lineup is not the problem anyway.

True, but I don't even want to think about the rotation right now.

1. I'm 100% sure, that Reddick will be in RF come 2012. Brentz and Kalish will fight for it in 2013 or earlier.

Brentz as a regular in 2013 seems a tad optimistic, no?

2. Lavarnway will start the season in AAA and refine his catching skills. After that he has to start fulltime, right? It will be either at DH or replacing Saltalamacchia. Varitek has to go now. Start something new.

If Lavarnway is starting in AAA and Tek is gone, they need a backup C for half a season. What's Doug Mirabelli doing these days? ;-)

4. We have to try resign Ortiz for 1/15. But I think somebody will offer him two guaranteed years after the season he has had.
5. Youkilis will start at 3rd and if Ortiz is gone, he will also see time at DH with Lowrie/Aviles at 3rd. The Youk/Ortiz-era could be over in 2013, when Youkilis gets traded to Cincinatti (a.k.a known as Tschintschinätti) and Ortiz' contract is up.

It will be interesting to see how the Ortiz/Youkils situation plays out. I have reconciled a bit with the idea of Youkilis remaining our 3B mostly because I have a though time with coming up with much of a realistic alternative. I believe Youk's trade value (despite the sports hernia) right now is higher than it will be next year. If a good reasonably young SP and a prospect can be had for him you would have to think about it. Get Chase Headley from the Padres (They have Darnell and Gyorko, and Headley is one of their more expensive players, so he can probably be had relatively cheap) and Headley is of course a significant downgrade offensively but you might make up for that with, say Ethier over Reddick in RF, plus you get a good SP which will be more crucial for success. Or maybe Wislon Betemit?

(6. I would try to trade again for Felix Hernandez. If it takes Ellsbury, do it. His value will never be highera and he is fed up with the Sox since his rib injury.)

Felix is always interesting. But giving up a young, cost controlled (for now) MVP candidate plus your few Ml-ready top prospects seems a lot for the privilege to pay Felix a King's ransom. And of course, when CC opts out of his contract, NYY will be all over Felix, driving his price up further. One of the problems of the Red Sox the last two years was that the influx of top prospects that can assume an important role on the Ml-club has been diminished (especially on the pitching side). If anything they should further expand their farm system not diminishing it (And yes I am aware that the system is filled with top prospects at the lower levels).

That is kind of self-explaining. Now we should start talking about the rotation. And that leads to the beer drinkers. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Bard.

Wow, when did Bard become one of the Beer drinkers? Is he even 21 yet?

If the Red Sox trade for Hernandez, Ellsbury and Middlebrooks etc. are gone. Thats the biggest challenge for Ben Cherington. What to do with the rotation. The lineup is set [...] Not so much for the rotation. I think a trade has to be made and Lackey has to be fixed. I'm 100% sure he will remain with the Sox in 2012.

Currently the Sox have Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Wakefield under contract (or options on them) plus Aceves, Doubront and Weiland.
- Send Lester to work some community hours at the Dana-Faber clinic. That might remind him what he's gone through to get where he is and set his head straight.
- Put Buchholz on a special regimen to strenghten his upper body without messing up his pitching motion. He should be ok.
- Lackey is unlikely to go anywhere, even if you eat his full contract you won't get anything of value in return (then again I never thought anybody would take on Vernon Wells's contract). So you stick with him and hope for the best.
-Re-sign Bedard.
- Beckett: I've written before that under the right circumstances I could see him being traded. The Rangers need a replacement for CJ Wilson and Beckett would probably accept a trade to his homestate team. Get Martin Perez, Profar and Kirkman. Kirkman serves as immediate SP-depth. With Perez the quality of starting pitching in the higher minors is reestablished and Profar, though a long way from the majors, is just really exciting. With Bogaerts and Profar in the system, trade Iglasias or a package around Iglesias for SP.
- Of course this would create an additional hole in the rotation (which is why I believe Beckett will stay). But if you find another way to get a very good SP (Youk-trade?) it might be worth considering.
-Keep Wakefield if he can find happiness in the role is long-man/spot starter. Pitching depth is key! And until someone provides serious evidence or actual proof that he adds to the negative clubhouse atmosphere, I'll continue to assume that he is a class act. If you don't pick up Wakefield's option there might be someone capable of assuming the 5th starter role at an acceptable price in the FA market.
-Sign Justin Duchscherer for the pen (he can spot start which gives further SP depth).
- Do not sign Buehrle or Wilson (To be reconsidered if you trade away Beckett). The market will be crazy for Wilson and he just isn't that good, is he? Buehrle scares me.
- What about Yu Darvish?
-Sign Brad Penny and then send him to Mexico for Kenny Powers!
-The Sox seriously need to step up their efforts in the Latin American market (as Scaff has mentioned before), big time!

The lineup is set and there are guys in the minors who will/would fill in for Ortiz/Youk.

That's not true. Presently there is no one in the minors who could fill 3B as of 2012. You could argue for a Lowrie/Aviles combo at third, but not even I am a fan of that idea.

[Therwil Flyer]

As far as RF goes, I think that they either go with Reddick/Kalish (with Kalish starting in AAA with McDonald the 4th OF) or sign a moderately priced FA who hits right handed on a 2-3 year deal (Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham). I think they bring Ortiz back, and if that's the case, you don't need a TON of offense from RF.

It'd expect it'd take a lot more than Reddick to land Ethier. That being said, he's a potential FA target after 2012 if the Dodgers don't extend him (they'll try this off-season). Another season to see what they have in Brentz will, as will another year to figure out if Ellsbury is extendable or not.

I think Wakefield and Tek are as good as gone. Varitek's "intangibles" don't mean much if leadership is no longer one of them. Lavarnway is the backup catcher and occasional DH. I think they have Aviiles do some work in the OF over the winter and in the spring, and carry him in the spare IF/5th OF spot.

All good points except Willingham really can't play an adequate RF. And moving Crawford to RF is a bad idea imho.

[Therwil Flyer]

Just to add so I'm not misunderstood here. I don't believe that there will be huge changes in terms of the lineup and rotation. I expect Youks to stay and Ortiz to resign on a two year deal. I expect the top of the rotation to be Lester, Beckett and Buch. I don't think that's necessarily bad at all. Just because there were issues in the clubhouse, doesn't mean you necessarily have to get rid of everyone. Attitudes can change, effort can be changed, fire can be relit and passion rejuvenated, at least sometimes.

But I'm trying too be a bit creative (yet not entirely unrealistic) here. And discussing possible trade scenarios is a lot more fun than really anything else we have to discuss in RSN right now.

[Therwil Flyer]

It'd expect it'd take a lot more than Reddick to land Ethier.

Reddick and Anderson? ;-) I know I'm suffering from delusions, doing what we always do, thinking we can turn expendable prospects into a top player or an expendable regular into top prospects. But my point was that Ethier is becoming expensive for the Dodgers and he will be an FA after 2012. So, if Ethier gets a chance to play for big team with his buddy Pedroia, maybe he can convince the Dodgers that he will not sign an extension now or later. The Dodgers then might be inclined to trade him away at a reasonable price. And, hey, the Dodgers were willing to trade away Trayvon Robinson for Federowicz and Fife, so you never now what exactly they value in prospects. (probably still wishful thinking)

[Mike D.]

Reddick and Anderson? ;-) I know I'm suffering from delusions, doing what we always do, thinking we can turn expendable prospects into a top player or an expendable regular into top prospects. But my point was that Ethier is becoming expensive for the Dodgers and he will be an FA after 2012. So, if Ethier gets a chance to play for big team with his buddy Pedroia, maybe he can convince the Dodgers that he will not sign an extension now or later. The Dodgers then might be inclined to trade him away at a reasonable price. And, hey, the Dodgers were willing to trade away Trayvon Robinson for Federowicz and Fife, so you never now what exactly they value in prospects. (probably still wishful thinking)

I bet it takes Reddick, Anderson, and a guy like Ranaudo, minimum. They'd probably ask for a guy like Middlebrooks and/or Brentz.. That's just the way it goes trading prospects for vets.

[Mike D.]

All good points except Willingham really can't play an adequate RF. And moving Crawford to RF is a bad idea imho.

Wilingham looks like he's been at least solid in LF. If he's the guy they signed, I'd leave it up to the Sox whether he or Crawford would be better in RF.

Cuddyer is probably the better fit since he plays RF (and played some 1B and 2B in 2011!) and hits for more average/obp while still having some pop. Willingham has more power, but lower OBP/AVG.