Red Sox offseason 2011-2012

[Mike D.]

I think if the Sox sign Beltran, it'll be to play RF (or maybe left, with them moving Crawford to RF), with Reddick getting playing time, as well.

If it came down to Beltran vs. Ortiz at DH, I take Ortiz. He's just a much better offensive player. Sure, he's a little older, but he's just a better bet to stay healthy and produce offense.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I doubt that Papelbon would take a deal like that...it's a 4 year deal, but the dollars per year would actually represent a pay cut for him from his 2011 salary. Like I said, I can see something in the 3/$42 to 3/$50 range. At those dollars, it'll be really tough for a team to go 4 years unless there's a serious bidding war.

You're right that it does take another team out of the bidding, though (assuming the deal happens). Not sure where I'd put Papelbon's likely landing place if he doesn't return to Boston at this point.

I don't think it helps Papelbon that Madson signed. I think it's the opposite. Because with the Phillies, he had a team that could afford him. Now, who are the suitors, that can pay as much as the Red Sox and are in need of a closer?

I checked:

AL East: 1.
1. Toronto? Maybe. The have the money, but they usually did not give up much for their closer, as the Rauch-Francisco solution showed. Plus they have Janssen now...

AL Central: None. AL West: None.

NL East: 1.
1. Miami? Maybe. Because they have no closer and everybody is saying they want to spend this offseason, since they have a new ballpark.

NL central: 1.
1. Cincinatti. They declined Corderos option for 12 millions. For one year. And he had a good season. So, I don't think they want Papelbon for five years and the same money.

NL West: 1.
1. LA Dodgers. They would have the money, but they will not spend when it is not clear who is going to own the team.

Those are the obvious options for Papelbon, according to money and need of all teams in baseball. Maybe there is a darkhorse who would create space, I don't KNOW: But for me, Papelbon's only destination is the Red Sox. I bet it will be for same or less than Madson. Papelbon has less leverage now.

[Mike D.]

Those are the obvious options for Papelbon, according to money and need of all teams in baseball. Maybe there is a darkhorse who would create space, I don't KNOW: But for me, Papelbon's only destination is the Red Sox. I bet it will be for same or less than Madson. Papelbon has less leverage now.

I could see the Mets (who need a closer), the Rangers (if Feliz moves to the rotation), or the Angels involved (if they decide to use Walden as a SU guy) being involved to some degree or another. As you said, though, not a lot of obvious landing spots.

I still think the Red Sox don't go over 3 years, but the per year money will be higher than Madison. Like I said, if the description of Madson's deal is accurate, then that'd actually be a pay DECREASE for Papelbon.

[Therwil Flyer]

I think if the Sox sign Beltran, it'll be to play RF (or maybe left, with them moving Crawford to RF), with Reddick getting playing time, as well.

If it came down to Beltran vs. Ortiz at DH, I take Ortiz. He's just a much better offensive player. Sure, he's a little older, but he's just a better bet to stay healthy and produce offense.

Beltran had a -9.2 UZR/150 this year and looked old out there. He would need a significant amount of off-days/appearances at DH to keep him healthy. That's not going to happen if Ortiz resigns with Boston.

It's possible that they have Beltran in RF for 100-120 games and DH the rest of the time. Kalish/Reddick play the rest of the time in RF. Lavarnway/Lowrie and Youkilis (keep him healthy) would share the rest of the time at DH. But of course that would mean it's either Ortiz or Beltran.

Of course I could be wrong and the sign both Beltran and Ortiz (or only Ortiz or neither one). But, hypothetically, if it is either one or the other, I think it's a close call. Beltran is younger, offers more flexibility (switch hitter) and has defensive value. Offensively they are quite similar (link) with the difference that Ortiz put up these numbers in the AL east (so you don't have to worry about that with Ortiz). And of course Ortiz is Ortiz!

[Mike D.]

If it comes down to Ortiz or Beltran, I just can't see the Sox picking Beltran. One guy is a fan favorite who's proven he can stay healthy and produce in Boston. The other guy has never played in the AL East, hasn't DH'ed, has trouble staying healthy and may or may not be a good fit in Boston. I just don't see "a little versatility" being enough of a upside to make the move worthwhile.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I could see the Mets (who need a closer), the Rangers (if Feliz moves to the rotation), or the Angels involved (if they decide to use Walden as a SU guy) being involved to some degree or another. As you said, though, not a lot of obvious landing spots.

I still think the Red Sox don't go over 3 years, but the per year money will be higher than Madison. Like I said, if the description of Madson's deal is accurate, then that'd actually be a pay DECREASE for Papelbon.

There are a few non-obvious landing spots. I could see the Rangers doing that. But they should decide this very quickly. I don't know if they can decide now, that Feliz is going to be a starter. Some things have to play out. Is CJ Wilson going to resign etc. But the Mets still punch themselves for doing the K-Rod deal. They have no chance at winning and are short in money. So forget them.
Same for LAA for other reasons. Walden had a great season. They have other holes.

I really think, Papelbon has no other choice than to go to the Red Sox.

[Therwil Flyer]

The truth though is that the Madsen contract will likely set the market. Papelbon will command and eventually get 50+ over 4 years. Broxton, Bell and others such as Nathan will be massively overpaid for as well. It defies the basic principles of supply and demand but that's how the FA-market has worked in the past. Why the Phillies jumped the gun signing Madsen to the contract they did in the current closer-market is beyond me and would make for an intersting research paper.

If the Red Sox can get Papelbon to sign a 3-year deal at 13 per they should probably do it. Papelbon after all is the second best closer in the game. But after what the Phillies did it will be hard. Some other idiot GM will come along and think, hey, compared to the Madson deal, Paps at 4/50 is a steal let's do it.

I still believe that somehow Papelbon will wear a Red Sox uniform next year, but let's hope Cherrington is unwilling to get ass-raped and has a plan B.

4/44 for Madsen, in this market, wtf!

[Mike D.]

I really think, Papelbon has no other choice than to go to the Red Sox.

I won't go as far as "no choice", but I think that with the Phillies out of the bidding, the odds of Papelbon coming back have gone from "more likely than not" to "fairly likely".

[Mike D.]

The truth though is that the Madsen contract will likely set the market. Papelbon will command and eventually get 50+ over 4 years. Broxton, Bell and others such as Nathan will be massively overpaid for as well. It defies the basic principles of supply and demand but that's how the FA-market has worked in the past. Why the Phillies jumped the gun signing Madsen to the contract they did in the current closer-market is beyond me and would make for an intersting research paper.

I'm not sure this sets the market. It is a lot of money for one guy, but it also takes one of the few big-spending landing spots out of the equation. Papelbon is clearly the premium closer name out there at this point, but the number of obvious landing spots is fairly small. Bell is probably going to end up back in SD somehow, and I think Nathan will end up with the Mets based on discussions we had here about him being willing to take a slight discount to do so. Broxton won't get a closer's job handed to him...he'll sign a incentive-laden 1-year deal and try to make good (my guess, anyway).

If the Red Sox can get Papelbon to sign a 3-year deal at 13 per they should probably do it. Papelbon after all is the second best closer in the game. But after what the Phillies did it will be hard. Some other idiot GM will come along and think, hey, compared to the Madson deal, Paps at 4/50 is a steal let's do it.

Finding a team with an open spot and $50 million is going to be tough. You never know, though...someone could surprise us.

My guess right now...Papelbon returns to the Red Sox on a 3/$42 million deal with a option year and a $3 buyout. I think that'd make both the player, team, and fan base happy.

I still believe that somehow Papelbon will wear a Red Sox uniform next year, but let's hope Cherrington is unwilling to get ass-raped and has a plan B.

4/44 for Madsen, in this market, wtf!

Agree on both counts. Thankfully, there are some obvious plan B's out there...if Papelbon walks, the Sox collect two nice draft picks. They have Bard who could close (requring them to acquire a new setup guy) or they could keep Bard where he is and sign a cheaper closer (Nathan on a one-year plus an option?) to hold down the fort an extra year so Bard gets more seasoning.

[Therwil Flyer]

I'm not sure this sets the market. It is a lot of money for one guy, but it also takes one of the few big-spending landing spots out of the equation. Papelbon is clearly the premium closer name out there at this point, but the number of obvious landing spots is fairly small.

Well, you should be right and I hope you are. My point is that if the past is any indication, early offseason deals seem to set the market, whether they make sense or not. Speier actually just wrote an article arguing the same and citing last year's Benoit deal as an example (link).

My guess right now...Papelbon returns to the Red Sox on a 3/$42 million deal with a option year and a $3 buyout. I think that'd make both the player, team, and fan base happy.

Papelbon has been consistently great as closer, and the risk (in terms of both performance and health) is less than with virtually any other FA option out there. Yet I cringe at the idea of paying a reliever 14million a year (not that it's my money).

[Therwil Flyer]

Reports have it that there is a holdup with the Madsen deal. Not sure what it is, but maybe someone in that organization realized that they are nuts.

Meanwhile, Mike Maddux, apparently is interviewing with the Cubs after he did not want to do so because of family reasons. If he goes to Chicago after telling the Sox he doesn't want to come to Boston, because he doesn't want to leave his family in Texas, I'm pissed.

Update: It looks like Phillies CEO David Montgomery isn't approving the deal: link.

[Therwil Flyer]

Dave Cameron in a chat at fangraphs made in interesting point regarding Madsen/Phillies. Basically what he says is that the Phillies have already mortgaged their future to win now (by depleting their farm and hand out big money long term contracts) and are in win now mode big time. Thus overpaying (massively) for a closer can somewhat be understandable from their perspective.

Just to be clear, he still thinks it would be a bad deal, and so do I.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I'm not sure this sets the market. It is a lot of money for one guy, but it also takes one of the few big-spending landing spots out of the equation. Papelbon is clearly the premium closer name out there at this point, but the number of obvious landing spots is fairly small.

Exactly! When nobody bids with you, the price shouldnt go higher.

finding a team with an open spot and $50 million is going to be tough. You never know, though...someone could surprise us.

My guess right now...Papelbon returns to the Red Sox on a 3/$42 million deal with a option year and a $3 buyout. I think that'd make both the player, team, and fan base happy.

I think it will rather be 4/48.

[scaffolds]

Exactly! When nobody bids with you, the price shouldnt go higher.



I think it will rather be 4/48.

I will be very surprised if its more than 3 years, perhaps 3/40M

[Mike D.]

Looks like we have a pool going!

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Any more guesses? Winner gets bragging rights!

[Therwil Flyer]

Exactly! When nobody bids with you, the price shouldnt go higher.

You are assuming two things here. 1) Bidders have complete information (in the sense the expression is used in decision theory), and 2) the decision to bid is based on a rational decision making process.

The first assumption is not satisfied and we have seen in the past that teams have "outbid" themselves. If the second assumption is satisfied is at least questionable. Was it rational that the Yankees were serious bidders on Rafael Soriano when they had Mo under contract?

I have argued before that this should be a buyer's market for closers (good for the Red Sox, bad for Papelbon). But for the same reasons last year shuld have been a buyer's market for middle relievers and yet the likes of Benoit, Guerrier, Jenks got insane multi-year deals. The economist in me tells me that Paps should get something like a 3/36 deal in this market. But the baseball follower in me tells me it will be more along the lines of 3/50 or 4/60. Most likely then it will be somewhere in between.

[Therwil Flyer]

Looks like we have a pool going!

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Any more guesses? Winner gets bragging rights!

I'm in. Going with 3/40 plus a 4th year option at 15m that vests automatically based on a certain no. of games finished the year before.

[Mike D.]

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Therwil Flyer: 3/$40 million plus a 4th year option at 15m that vests automatically based on a certain no. of games finished the year before.

[Therwil Flyer]

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Therwil Flyer: 3/$40 million plus a 4th year option at 15m that vests automatically based on a certain no. of games finished the year before.

Looking at these numbers, I wonder what would be the better contract (from the signing team's perspective): 3/42 or 4/48. The latter includes more risk because it has more guaranteed years but it has lower AAV (12m vs. 14m).

A 4 year contract would sign him through 35. Not a crazy age, and Paps has been as consistent as a reliever can be.

[dominik]

signing someone till age 35 is usually not a bad thing. barring injuries the decline in the first half of the 30s is usually a lot slower than in the second half.

the question is if if papelbon can compensate for a possible loss of velocity with better secondary stuff. Mo stayed the best closer in the game till well over 35 despite losing a little speed. other pitchers did that too by refining their secondary stuff and pitching more intelligently.

the thing that would concern is that that pap to date is mostly a FB pitcher (well over 70% FBs). that means if he can't improve his secondary stuff (his slider is very average) even a small loss of velocity of 2-3 miles could affect him ver badly.

[Boston Boxer]

Looks like we have a pool going!

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Any more guesses? Winner gets bragging rights!

ok, i'm in...

3/$46 million

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Mike D: 3/$42 million

SwissRedSoxFan: 4/$48 million

Scaffolds: 3/$40 million

Therwil Flyer: 3/$40 million plus a 4th year option at 15m that vests automatically based on a certain no. of games finished the year before.

I really, really like my chances...:-) it seems that I'm the biggest optimist in this case.

@Therwil Flyer: I'm assuming both. But I read in the past, that there is a system in place, that everyone knows what everyone bids on everyone. Can't tell u where it was...

[Therwil Flyer]

I really, really like my chances...:-) it seems that I'm the biggest optimist in this case.

How are you the optimist in this bet?! No one thinks he will get as much guaranteed years as you, nor does anybody think he'll get as many years as you do.

And: I'm so gonna win this! And you'll hear about all year long ;-)

@Therwil Flyer: I'm assuming both. But I read in the past, that there is a system in place, that everyone knows what everyone bids on everyone. Can't tell u where it was...

Well, in that case some of them baseball execs are just plain f***ing stupid.

[raysnbran]

Exactly! When nobody bids with you, the price shouldnt go higher.

Tell that to Carl Crawford, and A-Rod after he opted out.

[Blue387]

MLBTR has the Phillies signing Jonathan Papelbon.

One question: how can my Mets light him up?