Red Sox offseason 2011-2012

[Boston Boxer]

maybe the Sox move Aceves and Bard to the rotation and then sign two of Rodriguez, Madson, Nathen. Jenks will be back and hopefully contribute. Just talking out loud

[Mike D.]

maybe the Sox move Aceves and Bard to the rotation and then sign two of Rodriguez, Madson, Nathen. Jenks will be back and hopefully contribute. Just talking out loud

I bet they go half way to that...moving Aceves to the rotation and keeping Bard in the pen. One of those three you mention could be a strong possibility, too.

[Boston Boxer]

this is good news as well...I am a big Cuddyer fan and good to see they are at least talking.

http://www.nesn.com/2011/11/report-r...l-cuddyer.html

[Boston Boxer]

I bet they go half way to that...moving Aceves to the rotation and keeping Bard in the pen. One of those three you mention could be a strong possibility, too.

yes, i think Bard is too valuable in the pen. I would like to see what it would take to get Madson and Nathen. I like the idea of Madson as issurance if Bard for some reason cant get it done as the closer.

maybe a bullpen of Bard, Madson, Jenks, Nathen, Weiland, Wake, Tazawa, Doubront...maybe Morales or Rich Hill depending on health

[Mike D.]

yes, i think Bard is too valuable in the pen. I would like to see what it would take to get Madson and Nathen. I like the idea of Madson as issurance if Bard for some reason cant get it done as the closer.

I think it'll be tough to get Madson for a non-closer spot. He may be tough to get anyway if the Sox aren't willing to go 4 years (and it certainly sounds like they're not). Nathan, I don't know what the market will be for him and what roles he's willing to take, but he's worth looking in to.

maybe a bullpen of Bard, Madson, Jenks, Nathen, Weiland, Wake, Tazawa, Doubront...maybe Morales or Rich Hill depending on health

I wouldn't mind bringing back an Atchison or Wheeler to compete for a spot if they were willing to sign one-year deals for reasonable money. There's not a lot out there in the MR market as far as FA's go. I imagine they'll try to get one more established guy, then go with the "gather as many talented arms as you can and see what works" method of bullpen building.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Interesting. I wasn't expecting major changes in FA compensation in the agreement. I know that Selig really wants draft pick bonus slotting. Maybe they're trading out slotting for draft pick compensation? The players don't like draft pick compensation because it has the potential to keep down salaries for veteran FA's.

I hope the changes are not too drastic. My guess is, slotting for draft picks and a team that has to give up a Type-A-FA gets a 1st and 2nd sandwich pick. So if you sign a Type A guy, you give up nothing but the Team that gives up is still awarded two draft picks.

[Therwil Flyer]

I hope the changes are not too drastic. My guess is, slotting for draft picks and a team that has to give up a Type-A-FA gets a 1st and 2nd sandwich pick. So if you sign a Type A guy, you give up nothing but the Team that gives up is still awarded two draft picks.

Olney was reporting something along those lines earlier. A new FA-compensation system is definitely needed. Hard draft slotting however is not a good thing.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Olney was reporting something along those lines earlier. A new FA-compensation system is definitely needed. Hard draft slotting however is not a good thing.

It's not a good thing for the industry and for trying to get two-sport-stars to baseball and that international free agents are probably not included. But it kind of secures that the bad teams in the MLB get the best players before others do with their huge draft budgets. And thats the whole sense of having a draft: every team has a bigger chance to contend. So to me, it's good.

[Therwil Flyer]

It's not a good thing for the industry and for trying to get two-sport-stars to baseball and that international free agents are probably not included. But it kind of secures that the bad teams in the MLB get the best players before others do with their huge draft budgets. And thats the whole sense of having a draft: every team has a bigger chance to contend. So to me, it's good.

Except of course that the teams throwing around the most money lately have been the bad teams. Among the biggest draft spenders this year (and in the past couple of years) the Pirates, Jays and Royals. The top 10 players are usually picked with the first 10 to 15 picks.

It's really more for everything after the first round that you'll see the kind of overslot money picks from "richer" teams. But then again the real allocation of talent happens in the first round anyway.

So essentially what will happen, is that draft budgets shrink and these funds will then be handed out to middling FAs (young kids who don't choose football or basketball get less, established but not particularly good mlb players get more). I completely fail to see how that helps baseball.

If competitive balance is the goal, there are better ways to structure the amateur draft than hard slotting.

Also, Heyman earlier tweeted that the new CBA won't include hard slotting, so the whole discussion might be futile...

[scaffolds]

Papelbon was saying To the MLB network tonight, that he was a loyal man that he believes in loyality. To give him the green dollars and he will run with it.

[scaffolds]

Papelbon was saying To the MLB network tonight, that he was a loyal man that he believes in loyality. To give him the green dollars and he will run give it.

Papelbon can't spell loyality even if they spell it to him.

[Boston Boxer]

Papelbon was saying To the MLB network tonight, that he was a loyal man that he believes in loyality. To give him the green dollars and he will run give it.

I just watched the press confrence...he is so full of crap it is not funny. That's fine. The way the Sox front office treats people when they are on the way out i guess this was due.

[Therwil Flyer]

I just watched the press confrence...he is so full of crap it is not funny. That's fine. The way the Sox front office treats people when they are on the way out i guess this was due.

I didn't see it. What did he say? Did he trash the Sox for not making him a big offer?

[Mike D.]

0So essentially what will happen, is that draft budgets shrink and these funds will then be handed out to middling FAs (young kids who don't choose football or basketball get less, established but not particularly good mlb players get more). I completely fail to see how that helps baseball..

So, slotting may actual help the veteran players more than the owners. Yet the owners are willing to potentially trade away draft pick compensation (which helps the players) to get slotting?

No wonder labor negotiations between the two sides have been a long run of player wins for the last 40 years!

[Therwil Flyer]

So, slotting may actual help the veteran players more than the owners. Yet the owners are willing to potentially trade away draft pick compensation (which helps the players) to get slotting?

No wonder labor negotiations between the two sides have been a long run of player wins for the last 40 years!

Well, I guess whether hard slotting would help the veterans will depend on whether owners indeed spend the resources saved in the draft on veterans (as I would expect) or whether they will do something else with that money. So to some degree it's up to the owners. But I easily see how the players union makes these calculations and would be quite happy about hard slotting.

On the other hand I'm not sure how draft pick compensations help the players. Doesn't it rather hurt them?

[Mike D.]

On the other hand I'm not sure how draft pick compensations help the players. Doesn't it rather hurt them?

It does hurt the players, I meant that "trading" it for hard slotting would probably be a win-win for the players. Looking back at my post, I said that in a rather unclear way.

I think that you're right that the "extra" money hard slotting might go elsewhere...the international market or the owners pocket for example, but with I bet a lot of it would be spent on major league rosters.

That all being said...if hard slotting passes and an international draft doesn't happen, what's to stop the next Bryce Harper from moving out of the country in high school and signing a huge international FA contract? If you're going to have slotting, it seems like it'd have to go hand-in-hand with an international draft.

[Boston Boxer]

I didn't see it. What did he say? Did he trash the Sox for not making him a big offer?

he was acting like a big shot...said he called his agent and told him he wanted to pitch for the Phillies and to make it happen. They never spoke to the Sox the entire off season and never gave them an oportunity to match (which i am fine with). Made some off hand comments about how professional the Phillies are and classy blah blah blah. He was a great closer for us and that got him a huge contract, so good for him. He just sounded uneducated in his interview.

[Therwil Flyer]

Apparently the Sox
- made a contract offer to David Ortiz after meeting with his agent (although other reports say no resolution to be expected soon).
- inquired about Freddy Garcia
- had talks with Michael Cuddyer
- will send Cherrington to the Dominican to watch Cespedes
- will restructure their international scouting and medical departments
- will promote Mike Hazen to assistant GM (Hazen was vice president of amateur scouting and player development)

Also Reddick underwent minor surgery and according to Cherrington they will wait out the closer market. And don't hold your breath for Darvish.

(no links. I'm lazy today)

[Mike D.]

Looking at the thin FA market for starters, I'm drawn back to a name that came up a lot at the deadline but didn't get moved - Wandy Rodriguez.

He's far from perfect...he'll be 33 next year and will make $10 million in 2012, $13 million in 2013. There's an option for 2014 for $13 million that may become a player option if he's traded, and also may become guarenteed if certain milestones are met.

That being said, he's had ERA's of 3.60 or below the last 3 years. In those seasons, he's made at least 30 starts and thrown at least 190 innings each year.

If the Astros were willing to move his contract for a reasonable return, wouldn't he make a lot of sense as a 4th starter in Boston? His ERA would probably rise in the AL East, but an ERA under 4.00 and 190+ IP from the #4 spot in the rotation would have to be pretty appealing to Boston.

The Astros farm system is pretty baren, so the idea of adding some prospects and saving some money might be appealing to them. Not sure if Lars Anderson would interest them (they have Brett Wallace at 1B) but if he did, Anderson and a couple lower-level prospects might get it done.

Speaking of the Astros, if they were willing to eat about half the money and not expect much back, I'd take Carlos Lee and stick him in LF (moving Crawford to RF). He's a statue in the field, but he's a right handed bat with some pop.

[Boston Boxer]

Apparently the Sox
- made a contract offer to David Ortiz after meeting with his agent (although other reports say no resolution to be expected soon).
- inquired about Freddy Garcia
- had talks with Michael Cuddyer
- will send Cherrington to the Dominican to watch Cespedes
- will restructure their international scouting and medical departments
- will promote Mike Hazen to assistant GM (Hazen was vice president of amateur scouting and player development)

Also Reddick underwent minor surgery and according to Cherrington they will wait out the closer market. And don't hold your breath for Darvish.

(no links. I'm lazy today)

you forgot the most important news...finally looks like the "medical staff" is done as well. Long overdue IMO

[dominik]

I don't think so. A 3.5 ERA in a weak division in the NL means likely 4.5 ERA in the AL east in that boston bandbox. NL pitchers rarely do well in the AL and certainly not if they are moved in a hitters park.

[Therwil Flyer]

Wandy is interesting. His career splits against AL teams are not pretty (but he seemed to hold his own last season, extreme case of ss-bias of course). FIP, xFIP and BABIP numbers suggest that his era is near his actual talent level (at least in the NL central). Of course all depends on what they demand in return, but if anything like Anderson+ would get it done, I'd be interested. Much more Seems steep, it's not like Wandy is coming cheap at 2/23 and would would become too expensive for my taste at 3/36.

[Mike D.]

I don't think so. A 3.5 ERA in a weak division in the NL means likely 4.5 ERA in the AL east in that boston bandbox. NL pitchers rarely do well in the AL and certainly not if they are moved in a hitters park.

I'd have to see some actual data before I believed that a pitcher's ERA would go up a whole run by moving from the NL to the AL. I just don't think that's backed up by fact.

Fenway Park doesn't dramatically favor hitters. Minute Maid Park isn't a pitchers park. Could he put up a 4.50 ERA in Boston? Sure. He could also put up a 3.00, 3.50, or 4.00 ERA.

When you consider cost in terms of dollars, prospects, and years, I think the Sox could do a LOT worse than Rodriguez as a 4th starter pickup.

[Mike D.]

Much more Seems steep, it's not like Wandy is coming cheap at 2/23 and would would become too expensive for my taste at 3/36.

With the FA market thin on SP, though, I can't see them getting someone better for even 3/36 (and 2/23, forget it). I mean, if you can land a Burhle or Oswalt for that money, I think you go for it...but if they sign for that little I'll be very surprised.

[Mike D.]

You also need to remember that 2/23 isn't exactly out of the norm for Boston for those spots. Last year, their #4 and #5 starters at the beginning of the year (Lackey and Dice-K) were making $15 and $10 million, respectively.