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Thread: The Off-Season: 2011-2012 Edition

  1. #41
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    If the Yankees continue to stay in the $215 MM payroll range, it's incredibly unlikely that they can dole out more than one large contract. Signing Fielder for between $18 and $24 MM (which is the range that I've mostly heard) when there's a league-minimum alternative on the roster in Montero is inane. Particularly when Fielder's body type is a precursor to a pretty rapid decline - Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder were done as productive players around 30, for what it's worth.

    And, beyond that, if the Yankes are going to be able to give out one big contract ... I'd rather have Wilson or Darvish. The rotation is a much bigger need than the offense.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Domenic View Post
    If the Yankees continue to stay in the $215 MM payroll range, it's incredibly unlikely that they can dole out more than one large contract. Signing Fielder for between $18 and $24 MM (which is the range that I've mostly heard) when there's a league-minimum alternative on the roster in Montero is inane. Particularly when Fielder's body type is a precursor to a pretty rapid decline - Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder were done as productive players around 30, for what it's worth.

    And, beyond that, if the Yankes are going to be able to give out one big contract ... I'd rather have Wilson or Darvish. The rotation is a much bigger need than the offense.
    Cj Wilson is Average pitcher. Yu darvish I saw him pitch in WBC. He's a very good pitcher. Will it translate to the u.s. Idk I don't follow the Nippon league but don't the pitchers pitch once a week? And with the bad history pitchers of japan coming to new York it's a risk. I rather have Felix Hernandez I can only dream.

  3. #43
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    In what world is C.J. Wilson an average pitcher?

    This year, Wilson posted a 2.94 ERA (32% better than league-average), a 3.24 FIP (24% better than league-average), and a 3.41 xFIP (16% better than league-average). His strikeout rate, walk rate, K/BB, and groundball rater were all above-average, and by a considerable margin. He was fourth in the AL in fWAR and eight in bWAR. All this while pitching in a hitter's park - a more extreme hitter's park than Yankee Stadium, to boot.

    Are you suggesting 2011 was a fluke? Fine. In 2010, his ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, and GB% were all above-average. He wasn't quite as good, to be sure, but it was also his first full season as a starting pitcher. Oh, and he still managed to rank ninth in fWAR and eighth in bWAR.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Domenic View Post
    In what world is C.J. Wilson an average pitcher?

    This year, Wilson posted a 2.94 ERA (32% better than league-average), a 3.24 FIP (24% better than league-average), and a 3.41 xFIP (16% better than league-average). His strikeout rate, walk rate, K/BB, and groundball rater were all above-average, and by a considerable margin. He was fourth in the AL in fWAR and eight in bWAR. All this while pitching in a hitter's park - a more extreme hitter's park than Yankee Stadium, to boot.

    Are you suggesting 2011 was a fluke? Fine. In 2010, his ERA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, and GB% were all above-average. He wasn't quite as good, to be sure, but it was also his first full season as a starting pitcher. Oh, and he still managed to rank ninth in fWAR and eighth in bWAR.
    He had one good year big woo. Have u seen his postseason era this year 5.40 he got rocked in game 1 against the rays 6 runs he gave up 6 runs also to the tigers. All of them earned.By the way he gave up six hr this postseason. So yea I want a very good pitcher.

  5. #45
    Darvish is unquestionably the best target. If he had the numbers he had this year in AA he would be a top prospect. In AAA he'd be Matt Moore. A far better pitcher than Dice K.

    And anyone who suggests Fielded is smoking something.

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  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by jeter2 View Post
    He had one good year big woo. Have u seen his postseason era this year 5.40 he got rocked in game 1 against the rays 6 runs he gave up 6 runs also to the tigers. All of them earned.By the way he gave up six hr this postseason. So yea I want a very good pitcher.
    Yeah anyone who has a bad possession is garbage. Get rid of anyone with under a .600 Ops.

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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeter2 View Post
    He had one good year big woo. Have u seen his postseason era this year 5.40 he got rocked in game 1 against the rays 6 runs he gave up 6 runs also to the tigers. All of them earned.By the way he gave up six hr this postseason. So yea I want a very good pitcher.
    So ... you're just going to gloss over the fact that he was well above-average in 2010?

    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    Darvish is unquestionably the best target. If he had the numbers he had this year in AA he would be a top prospect. In AAA he'd be Matt Moore. A far better pitcher than Dice K.
    I'm not sure I agree with that.

    There are quite a few issues with players coming from Japan. The ball weighs more in MLB, the seams are more pronounced, and the ball itself is more slippery (having a smoother surface). More travel days. Longer travel times. More frequent starts. Smaller ballparks. In terms of competition, Japan is probably on-par with Double-A - but there are more factors to consider than competition. While none of these factors necessarily spell doom for Darvish, we have seen from past experiences that the transition is far from easy.

    Darvish's past three seasons, as per RLYW's Major League equivalent formulations, comes out to a 3.31 ERA and 3.78 FIP (with the most optimistic calculation calling for a 3.10 FIP). Over the past two years, C.J. Wilson's actual MLB line features a 3.14 ERA and 3.40 FIP. Wilson is also a LHP (quite beneficial in NYS) that picks up an above-average amount of grounders (quite beneficial in NYS). In addition to being more of a 'sure thing,' Wilson's been about as good, if not better than Darvish's MLE's.

    There are two edges that many cite in comparing the two - Darvish is six years younger and will not cost a draft pick. The latter is undeniable, for what it's worth. As for the former, however ... Darvish has thrown more professional innings than Wilson (1268.1 IP to 1145.1). Those innings are also concentrated over fewer years, meaning more wear and tear.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Domenic View Post
    So ... you're just going to gloss over the fact that he was well above-average in 2010?



    I'm not sure I agree with that.

    There are quite a few issues with players coming from Japan. The ball weighs more in MLB, the seams are more pronounced, and the ball itself is more slippery (having a smoother surface). More travel days. Longer travel times. More frequent starts. Smaller ballparks. In terms of competition, Japan is probably on-par with Double-A - but there are more factors to consider than competition. While none of these factors necessarily spell doom for Darvish, we have seen from past experiences that the transition is far from easy.

    Darvish's past three seasons, as per RLYW's Major League equivalent formulations, comes out to a 3.31 ERA and 3.78 FIP (with the most optimistic calculation calling for a 3.10 FIP). Over the past two years, C.J. Wilson's actual MLB line features a 3.14 ERA and 3.40 FIP. Wilson is also a LHP (quite beneficial in NYS) that picks up an above-average amount of grounders (quite beneficial in NYS). In addition to being more of a 'sure thing,' Wilson's been about as good, if not better than Darvish's MLE's.

    There are two edges that many cite in comparing the two - Darvish is six years younger and will not cost a draft pick. The latter is undeniable, for what it's worth. As for the former, however ... Darvish has thrown more professional innings than Wilson (1268.1 IP to 1145.1). Those innings are also concentrated over fewer years, meaning more wear and tear.
    Darvish also has more of a track record. Granted Wilson did it in the AL. While I am skeptical of Japanese players in general, even if Darvish bombs as badly as Dice K, he'd still be excellent (also per rlyw.net)

    Wilson's control issues bother me. Plus as you mentioned the draft pick, but don't forget the luxury tax. While we would likely pay as much for Darvish as Wilson, no tax on posting. Not my money but I'd rather the Yanks spend their money wisely.

    While we have been burned by Japanese pitchers before, we have also been burned by _.J. pitchers before too. And I see that as more of a similarity.

  9. #49
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    First, I want to see Montero have a shot at being our back up next year. I am not happy Joe did not play him and Betrances more at the end. I don't want to trade him unless it's Verlander (and that's not going to happen).
    I want to say something about BoSox. Because I hate this team I follow every move. Listening to Henry, this collapse was from top all the way down. I can NOT believe they can't even get this compensation done with the Cubs. Do they think Theo is going to do his BoSox GM job next year? I do think there will be a fire sale but I don't want Ortiz (like earlier post trying to get more money) This drama is almost like Bronx is Burning.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Domenic View Post
    So ... you're just going to gloss over the fact that he was well above-average in 2010?



    I'm not sure I agree with that.

    There are quite a few issues with players coming from Japan. The ball weighs more in MLB, the seams are more pronounced, and the ball itself is more slippery (having a smoother surface). More travel days. Longer travel times. More frequent starts. Smaller ballparks. In terms of competition, Japan is probably on-par with Double-A - but there are more factors to consider than competition. While none of these factors necessarily spell doom for Darvish, we have seen from past experiences that the transition is far from easy.

    Darvish's past three seasons, as per RLYW's Major League equivalent formulations, comes out to a 3.31 ERA and 3.78 FIP (with the most optimistic calculation calling for a 3.10 FIP). Over the past two years, C.J. Wilson's actual MLB line features a 3.14 ERA and 3.40 FIP. Wilson is also a LHP (quite beneficial in NYS) that picks up an above-average amount of grounders (quite beneficial in NYS). In addition to being more of a 'sure thing,' Wilson's been about as good, if not better than Darvish's MLE's.

    There are two edges that many cite in comparing the two - Darvish is six years younger and will not cost a draft pick. The latter is undeniable, for what it's worth. As for the former, however ... Darvish has thrown more professional innings than Wilson (1268.1 IP to 1145.1). Those innings are also concentrated over fewer years, meaning more wear and tear.
    I don't want cj Wilson as a Yankees. I want pitcher is damn good like Felix Hernandez. He's one of the best in the business. As for darvish I like him However its big risk signing a japanesse player especially a pitcher.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by jeter2 View Post
    I don't want cj Wilson as a Yankees. I want pitcher is damn good like Felix Hernandez. He's one of the best in the business. As for darvish I like him However its big risk signing a japanesse player especially a pitcher.
    Sure. Why not? Maybe we trade Aj for Felix? Why did I not think of that?

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  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    Darvish also has more of a track record. Granted Wilson did it in the AL. While I am skeptical of Japanese players in general, even if Darvish bombs as badly as Dice K, he'd still be excellent (also per rlyw.net)
    I don't think you can chalk Darvish's career up to a larger track record. While I don't like to knock the NPB, the fact remains that its LQ is akin to our Double-A, only with a lower offensive context and the additional differences I've outlined previously. Darvish has been far and away the best pitcher in that league, and it's certainly worth quite a bit, but even 2010 CJ Wilson would be a boon for the Yankees ... Darvish is far more unknown.

    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    Wilson's control issues bother me. Plus as you mentioned the draft pick, but don't forget the luxury tax. While we would likely pay as much for Darvish as Wilson, no tax on posting. Not my money but I'd rather the Yanks spend their money wisely.
    Wilson did have control issues in 2010, but his BB% improved as the year wore on and his FIP and ERA were still above-average ... ditto his SIERA (albeit by a slimmer margin). As for their respective yearly salaries ... I've heard figures as high as $12 to $14 MM AAV for Darvish. That's probably $2 to $4 MM less than Wilson (not including the posting fee for the reasons you mentioned), and I'm not sure that that's worth considering. The greatest issue is the draft pick.

    In reality, what it comes down to is this - Darvish's ceiling far exceeds Wilson's ... but his floor is equally far beneath Wilson's, to boot. There's a great deal of variability in there, and I find that worrisome.

  13. #53
    Didn't know they used a different ball in Japan. Learn something every day. Thanks Domenic.

  14. #54
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    You're quite welcome.

    It's also worth noting that there isn't even a standard ball in the NPB. I don't have the figures on-hand, but a ball merely has to fall within some set of guidelines in order to be used - and most teams use their own ball in their home park.


  15. #55
    I heard Darvish would be expecting less than Dice K. For the same money, I'd consider Cj but just not crazy about it.

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  16. #56
    What about mark buerhle he's a proven winner and he so quick with his delivery. I'd rather have him.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by jeter2 View Post
    What about mark buerhle he's a proven winner and he so quick with his delivery. I'd rather have him.
    I'd sign Buerhle. But his numbers are always better than they should be. His stuff is not great. And most importantly he seems to have no desire to cone to Ny.

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  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    I'd sign Buerhle. But his numbers are always better than they should be. His stuff is not great. And most importantly he seems to have no desire to cone to Ny.

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    If buehrle could replicate his numbers of chicago he would be a very valuable starter. with that run support he could come close to 20 wins even with a 3.7 ERA.

    however the question is how he would do in NY. First of all it's extremely easy to hit HRs in YS. and on top of this the league is much stronger than the AL central. if you face boston, tampa and toronto every day it's not easy to pitch. couple that with the NY media and it's very possible that a new pitcher does worse than he did before.

    you definitely need the right type of pitcher for NY (mental strength, not too many FB since any pop up to RF is a HR and prefereably good control too since walks kill you in the AL east).
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    I heard Darvish would be expecting less than Dice K. For the same money, I'd consider Cj but just not crazy about it.

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    Read this morning that CJ is looking towards a $100M contract or close to it. How high you willing to go and for how long?

    ---


    Wondering what you folks would think about a King Felix deal that looked like this:
    King Felix for:
    Jesus Montero, Eduardo Nunez, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and Heath Sladecott.

    This would give Seattle immediate pop from Montero behind the plate and a viable option at SS along with 2 arms which could be middle of the rotation. Sladecott would be a project and more like a throw in to tip the scale over. Personally, I do not want to give up Jesus Montero at all but you have to give to get. Plus, if things go right for the Yanks Gary Sanchez will probably all make us forget about Montero. Keep in mind, if the Yanks give up Nunez there is not another option available after Jeter. Ramiro Pena is the only other option and he could hit his way out of a wet paper bag.


    As much as I like Felix, until the price comes down some the Yanks should look at other alternatives which couldn't require them dumping the farm for a pitcher.
    One guy in partictular... Gio Gonzalez. I really like Gonzalez and his numbers would look slightly better with an offense like the Yanks behind him. I know the argument about The Coliseum having 3 miles of foul grounds and what not, but Gio has shown he can pitch. Now, him doing in the AL East consistently and getting him without Billy Beane undressing Cashman is another question.
    Last edited by TonyStarks; 10-17-2011 at 12:04 PM.
    "After my fourth season I asked for $43,000 and General Manager Ed Barrow told me, 'Young man, do you realize Lou Gehrig, a 16-year-man, is playing for only $44,000?' I said, Mr. Barrow, there is only one answer to that - Mr. Gehrig is terribly underpaid."- Yankees outfielder Joe DiMaggio

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by TonyStarks View Post
    Read this morning that CJ is looking towards a $100M contract or close to it. How high you willing to go and for how long?

    ---


    Wondering what you folks would think about a King Felix deal that looked like this:
    King Felix for:
    Jesus Montero, Eduardo Nunez, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and Heath Sladecott.

    This would give Seattle immediate pop from Montero behind the plate and a viable option at SS along with 2 arms which could be middle of the rotation. Sladecott would be a project and more like a throw in to tip the scale over. Personally, I do not want to give up Jesus Montero at all but you have to give to get. Plus, if things go right for the Yanks Gary Sanchez will probably all make us forget about Montero. Keep in mind, if the Yanks give up Nunez there is not another option available after Jeter. Ramiro Pena is the only other option and he could hit his way out of a wet paper bag.


    As much as I like Felix, until the price comes down some the Yanks should look at other alternatives which couldn't require them dumping the farm for a pitcher.
    One guy in partictular... Gio Gonzalez. I really like Gonzalez and his numbers would look slightly better with an offense like the Yanks behind him. I know the argument about The Coliseum having 3 miles of foul grounds and what not, but Gio has shown he can pitch. Now, him doing in the AL East consistently and getting him without Billy Beane undressing Cashman is another question.
    CJ Wilson is not worth that money. I think what the Yanks gave to AJ is about right for CJ. As for King Felix, I like the deal. I hate to lose Montero but a possible rotation of CC, King Felix, Nova, Burnett, Hughes makes it well worth it. What would you do about the DH slot then, and who do you sign to be a cheap effective utility man to play SS?
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