Alex Rodriguez and Hitting When It Matters

[Yankwood]

Great post here. Articulated it far more clearly than I could (per your usual, Mr. Beady).

"Slacking" might be a better term. Whatever it is- many inside baseball would say "pressing"- this guy is the worst superstar in history at it. I can't think of any great hitter that I'd rather have up less than that guy with the season on the line. He refuses to shorten his swing, and the results are obvious.

Check out these three slices of Alex Rodriguez’ post-season production as a member of the New York Yankees:

Pre-2009:

24 Games
113 PA
94 AB
.245 BA
.436 SLG
4 HR
22 SO

2009:

15 Games
68 PA
52 AB
.365 BA
.808 SLG
6 HR
13 SO

Post-2009:

14 Games
61 PA
50 AB
.180 BA
.220 SLG
0 HR
12 SO

I would chalk this up to sample size, but hell, it's just an exaggeration of his disparity in performance with the game on the line versus in near (or next to near) meaningless situation during his career as a whole.

Written: 10/1/2007

“Since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS — the night Boston began its epic comeback from three games down against the Yankees — (Alex) Rodriguez has come to the plate with 38 runners on base, over the span of 59 at-bats. He left every single one on base, going 0-for-27, right through the Yanks’ Division Series loss to Cleveland this month.”

Some say there is no such thing as clutch and that the sample sizes are too small. This is utterly ridiculous. The brain controls the body and when the brain is not clicking on all cylinders, concentration suffers. What is more important to good hitting than concentrating? This is clearly a man who is thinking more about why he sucks in the clutch than he is about concentrating on the baseball and hitting it properly. Whether it's squeezing the bat or shaking in his shoes, I'm not sure, but this is a guy who leaves a load in his pants as well as on the bases when a big game is on the line

[ipitch]

I would chalk this up to sample size, but hell, it's just an exaggeration of his disparity in performance with the game on the line versus in near (or next to near) meaningless situation during his career as a whole.

Career as a whole:
.953 OPS
.969 OPS is in high leverage situations

Written: 10/1/2007
"Since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS...blah blah blah

Moderator, shouldn't this be in the history forum rather than the current events forum? Ha.

[Stumanji]

You can get bent over Arod if you wish but in truth , despite being in 16 post-season series, he still only has 300 PA's. That's a half season and a half season is the epitome of a small sample size.

Seriously? 300 PA's is a SMALL sample size? C'mon. If this was a rookie's first 300 PA's, then sure. But this is an elite hitter. 300 PA's is about 3x more than you need to get an adequate measure of their ability. I can't imagine any coach saying, "Y'know, he's struggled in these 200 PA's, but it's a small sample size. Give him another 500 PA's before we decide if he's capable or not."

[dominik]

Seriously? 300 PA's is a SMALL sample size? C'mon. If this was a rookie's first 300 PA's, then sure. But this is an elite hitter. 300 PA's is about 3x more than you need to get an adequate measure of their ability. I can't imagine any coach saying, "Y'know, he's struggled in these 200 PA's, but it's a small sample size. Give him another 500 PA's before we decide if he's capable or not."

well he did not always suck. he had some very good to great series in the POs and some bad ones. this year he was clearly not in shape after all the injuries so his "choking" was really just a lack of ability currently. he can still hit very good when he is healthy but after those injuries he didn't have any form at the plate. he already was bad in august (didn't play much) and september in the regular season.

Of course girardi should have acknowledged that and moved him in the 6th spot or so but this is not his fault. he was just not in shape.

[ipitch]

Seriously? 300 PA's is a SMALL sample size? C'mon. If this was a rookie's first 300 PA's, then sure. But this is an elite hitter. 300 PA's is about 3x more than you need to get an adequate measure of their ability.

Yes, it's a very small sample size. Take any hitter's career and break it into 300 PA segments and then look at the variance of the numbers.

See post #27. The numbers don't lie. ARod is closer to clutch than a choker in the regular season. Like 50% of players, his numbers are lower in the post-season than in the regular season, but it would be dumb to draw any conclusions from that.

BTW, ARod's career OBP in the regular season is .386, and it's also .386 in the post-season.

[NJYankeeFan]

ARod is second all time in grand slams. Choker! Lol

Seriously several players had poor possessors on the Yanks. Including Captain Ego with a 596 Ops from the lead off spot.

It happens.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk

[Mattingly]

I agree with those long term contracts. they are really hurting teams.

Boras and co. use those players scarcity as a leverage. they say if you want to buy prime years of my guy you have to pay for some decline years too. clubs do know that but they still take that sacrifice because they think that this players will win them while they are still good.
the problem is that the clubs don't have a choice. if they don't buy the player another club will. so they have to do it if they want to win.

That's just a question of leverage. there are 32 clubs but only like 10 really great hitters...

NY is now paying Arods decline years. basically this is part of his prime salary.

After Alex Rodriguez did his infamous "opt-out" after the 2007 season (actually, during the 2007 WS), there was one and only one club which had the financial capabilities to not only offer him a $300m/10 year deal, but had owners who not only were willing to go along, but who INSISTED that he (re)join their team: The New York Yankees.

Do you remember one of George's sons saying that he'll either go into the HoF as a Yankee or with the Toledo Mud Hens? Obviously, Scott Boras had his perfect deep-pocketed pigeon (and one with long arms, not short arms).

Had the Yankees rejected Boras' $300m/10 yr offer, then Alex Rodriguez, in the offseason after the 2007 season, could've likely have gotten somewhere in the $21-25m/yr range, given that bidding was frantic. However, he could've never gotten $30m/yr. He may have gotten 5-7 years, but never a 10-year deal, and certainly not both. The value of his present contract could've been 50-60% of what is presently is, on the high end ($175m/7 yrs), or 33% on the low end ($105m/5 yrs).

From what I remember, Boras mentioned that Alex could retire as some home run king.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...odrial01.shtml

From 2008-11, Alex has hit 35, 30, 30 and 16 HRs, totals 629, leaving him 134 short of being the new career HR leader. He's signed from 2008-17, so he's got another 6 years left on his contract. If he hits 25 HRs in each of those 6 years, he can make this, but would anybody pay $30m/yr for this? Especially when guys like Nelson Cruz are being heralded for far greater achievements, and not just expanding the record books.

I guess teams will still offer 7- and 8-year deals to top-tiered free agents. However, for that price, they may want to decide if that person's contributions will be worth the money at the front end and at the back end of the deal.

What I disagree with is that many deals are so-called "back-loaded", meaning that the player earns the most money towards the end of the deal. Which, conveniently, is when the player's skills start declining. While it saves the team money in the end, that player then becomes perfect trade bait for a team with a large budget and young, productive guys costing mere pennies by comparison. I believe that front-loading these deals would be fairer, but not necessarily economically feasible if the team can't afford him. Then again, if they can't afford him, they may try doing without him in the first place.

No one player will absolutely make or break a team. However, a good player will always be a key piece in the team's makeup. That contract doesn't allow him to merely be a piece of the pie.

[Stumanji]

Yes, it's a very small sample size. Take any hitter's career and break it into 300 PA segments and then look at the variance of the numbers.

300 PA's for a career is a small sample size. 300 PA's in the playoffs is a HUGE sample size. Context.

[ipitch]

From 2008-11, Alex has hit 35, 30, 30 and 16 HRs, totals 629, leaving him 134 short of being the new career HR leader. He's signed from 2008-17, so he's got another 6 years left on his contract. If he hits 25 HRs in each of those 6 years, he can make this, but would anybody pay $30m/yr for this? Especially when guys like Nelson Cruz are being heralded for far greater achievements, and not just expanding the record books.

Far greater achievements? That's laughable. Did you forget that ARod won 2 MVPs with the Yankees and probably would not have made the 2009 WS without him? What has Cruz won, anyway?

Cruz stunk in the ALDS (1 for 15 with no walks and no RBIs) and still made it to the ALCS. He's lucky he even had a chance to hit those 6 HRs.

[m8644]

I guess Arod just "forgot" it was the playoffs in 2009 when he basically carried the Yankees with big hit after big hit, and earlier in his career when he played great in the playoffs with Seattle.

The playoffs are so random that you pretty much can't quantify much of anything. Even the players that fans and media call the "clutchest of the clutch" have had TERRIBLE postseasons in their careers. Did they just not realize it was October and it was their time to perform? Or was it just that you can't really judge a guy on a small number of at bats

[ipitch]

300 PA's for a career is a small sample size. 300 PA's in the playoffs is a HUGE sample size. Context.

You do not understand what sample size means. Even though 300 playoff PAs is certainly a lot for a player to have, the sample size is still very small.

[brett]

ARod - career .953 OPS.
Anyone want to guess what his career OPS is in high leverage situations?
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.969
That small explosion you may have heard was csh's mind being blown.

Researching a little, I understand that A-Rod's late and close is only .900 and 2 outs RISP is .871 for a relative score of 89. Keep in mind that overall high leverage situations may not be "high stress" as far as the player perception, so my guess is that CSH was picking out situations which should pretty much universally be perceived as "high stress" or critical situations.

But you are right that overall his leveraged production is normal relative to his overall production. So he gets freaked out and still performs with normal splits with regard to value.

[brett]

Shouldn't 100 actually be the ideal score, though, and wouldn't any substantial deviation, whether higher or lower, indicate a serious character flaw?

First off, high leverage situations actually are more critical to winning. I'd rather have my guy be 110 in more critial sits and 90 in others relatively speaking. Second, the main reason that a good clutch hitter is above 100 in high stress sits is because the whole rest of the league does worse in those situations. When you see a guy at 110 in high leverage situations it is because he DOESN'T exhibit changes in those situations.

[Paulypal]

The post season "choking" thing is utterly ridiculous. Great players like anyone else get hot and cold, and hopefully they get hot at the right time. It doesnt always work that way.

Arod chokes is what you hear now, but in 2009 he was clutch? So what is he?

Go tell a true baseball fan and Yankee fan that Joe Dimaggio was a choker in the WS. His numbers were way substandard in the WS. Its very funny here in NY how Jeter can suck for big stretches and skates for free. Arod was never going to win the battle here in NY. Jeter gets lables a winner etc etc like he was playing singles tennis for the last 15 years. During the Yankee run of 1996-2000 when Jeter became a "champion player" the Yankees had dominant SP's and a dominant bullpen........................thats how Jeter became a champion.

[ipitch]

Go tell a true baseball fan and Yankee fan that Joe Dimaggio was a choker in the WS. His numbers were way substandard in the WS.

That's a good point. Joe D apparently gets a pass because he won 9 WS. One thing I noticed about ARod is that when he's had a sub-par playoff series, his team has lost that series nearly every time. Unlike Joe D, ARod's teammates have rarely helped him out.

Joe D - .977 career OPS, .760 career playoff OPS
ARod - .953 career OPS, .884 career playoff OPS

[m8644]

The post season "choking" thing is utterly ridiculous. Great players like anyone else get hot and cold, and hopefully they get hot at the right time. It doesnt always work that way.

Arod chokes is what you hear now, but in 2009 he was clutch? So what is he?

Go tell a true baseball fan and Yankee fan that Joe Dimaggio was a choker in the WS. His numbers were way substandard in the WS. Its very funny here in NY how Jeter can suck for big stretches and skates for free. Arod was never going to win the battle here in NY. Jeter gets lables a winner etc etc like he was playing singles tennis for the last 15 years. During the Yankee run of 1996-2000 when Jeter became a "champion player" the Yankees had dominant SP's and a dominant bullpen........................thats how Jeter became a champion.

Game, set, match.

[csh19792001]

Seriously, Chris your distaste for A-Rod seems almost personal. Ali? What does he have anything to do with sports in 2011 and baseball free agency?

Dude, are you seriously asking that? Alex Rodriguez is the epitome of the soft, overhyped, overpaid, overvalued "modern" 21st century athlete.

Ali? Biggest hype monger of all time. He ushered in the hype era. He propagated the "look at me, NOW, PLEASE!" attitude that makes people loathe superstar athletes, especially NFL stars. No class, no shame. Image proceeds performance. The fact that he was a steroid user is just the icing on the cake.

[csh19792001]

And while we're on the subject of $, hype, and performance....

Check this out:

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

In the past 10 years, the Cardinals have won 3 pennants and 1 (perhaps 2) World Series Championships.

The Yankees have won 10 pennants and 1 WS since 2003.

The Red Sox, 2 pennants and 2 WS.

Texieria made 22.5 million this year, and A-Fraud made 33 million.Those two salaries ALONE accounted for more than half the Cardinals payroll for their entire 2011 roster.

I think this pretty much sums up why I can't root for the Yankees. They represent/personify everything effed up about hype,sports, and the media today.

The Yankees dynasty came to an end when they lost all sense of team and when Steinbrenner went all out to purchase pennants, mashing all those colossal egos together. The results juxtaposed with the payrolls of the past 10 years speak for themselves.

[csh19792001]

Researching a little, I understand that A-Rod's late and close is only .900 and 2 outs RISP is .871 for a relative score of 89. Keep in mind that overall high leverage situations may not be "high stress" as far as the player perception, so my guess is that CSH was picking out situations which should pretty much universally be perceived as "high stress" or critical situations.

But you are right that overall his leveraged production is normal relative to his overall production. So he gets freaked out and still performs with normal splits with regard to value.

Brett, not JUST 2 outs and RISP, but Late & Close situations as well:

Late & Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

• 2 Outs RISP: tOPS is 87 (1306 career PA)
  
• Late & Close: tOPS is 89 (1439 career PA)
  
• 9th inning: tOPS is 78!! (735 career PA)

3480 PA, of tremendous underperformance, ipitch. Run a t-test on that and see if that sample size is significant. No superstar in history has been nearly as putrid.

Of course, when the game doesn't hang in the balance, he thrives!!

Margin >4 Run Differential: tOPS 105

The postseason is just the kicker.

[ipitch]

Alex Rodriguez is the epitome of the soft, overhyped, overpaid, overvalued "modern" 21st century athlete.

So, were you expecting him to turn down the money offered to him, like about 0.1% of players do? Why don't you send your hate to the people that (according to you) overhyped, overpaid, and overvalued him? It's baseball. When a player's numbers go down, it doesn't mean it's from a lack of effort.
What do you care how much money he's making, anyway? If he was making $1 mil, would he be underhyped, underpaid and undervalued?

As for "soft" (I'm not even sure what that means), Player X (a MLB all-star that writes for ESPN Magazine) says..."It's not sexy, but the best players are always the hardest workers. Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez? Always the most fit and most prepared you'll ever see."

[m8644]

Dude, are you seriously asking that? Alex Rodriguez is the epitome of the soft, overhyped, overpaid, overvalued "modern" 21st century athlete.

Ali? Biggest hype monger of all time. He ushered in the hype era. He propagated the "look at me, NOW, PLEASE!" attitude that makes people loathe superstar athletes, especially NFL stars. No class, no shame. Image proceeds performance. The fact that he was a steroid user is just the icing on the cake.

Funny because most of these qualities you are listing also describe Babe Ruth very, very well. But I guess since that was before the 24/7 media world we live in today and the fact that "everything was better in the good ole days" it doesnt count.

[csh19792001]

(ESPN Magazine) says..."It's not sexy, but the best players are always the hardest workers. Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez? Always the most fit and most prepared you'll ever see."

If only his preparedness prepared him for hitting when it matters!!

• If he made $1 mil last year, that'd put him tied for 430th in salary out of 750 MLB roster spots. I'd say that'd be underpaid.
  
• When Willie Mays was 35, he was still the best player in the universe, and had been better than A Rod ever was. If you consider that A Rod used steroids for (at the very least) a good chunk of his prime, it isn't even remotely close. Willie Mays made $125,000 in 1965. That's about $830,000 based on inflation adjusted dollars using the Consumer Price Index as a measure.
  
• The most Babe Ruth ever made was 1 million per year in today's (and that was for only two years, 30', and 31'). This is the most famous athlete in history, the father of modern baseball, and the player considered by most as the greatest player who ever lived.
  
• It was much publicized (often framed as an outrage) when Nolan Ryan signed for 1,000,000 with the Astros in 1980. That's "only" 3.4 million today. A-Rod has been guaranteed TEN TIMES that for the past three years.

"What do I care what he makes"? What a ridiculously obtuse question, unless, of course, you don't care about the quality of the product you're watching. Maybe you don't...

Long term, guaranteed contracts are bad for baseball. They're absolutely a disincentive compared to the days when salaries were actually PERFORMANCE based, not guaranteed LONG beforehand, "backloaded ", as predicated so often on hype and conjecture. As it stands this guy will continue to be guaranteed more than half of the total payroll of 33% of the franchises in baseball.

But, you're right, salaries haven't gotten out of control, and he's worth every penny....especially with the game on the line....

[GiambiJuice]

If only his preparedness prepared him for hitting when it matters!!

• If he made $1 mil last year, that'd put him tied for 430th in salary out of 750 MLB roster spots. I'd say that'd be underpaid.
  
• When Willie Mays was 35, he was still the best player in the universe, and had been better than A Rod ever was. If you consider that A Rod used steroids for (at the very least) a good chunk of his prime, it isn't even remotely close. Willie Mays made $125,000 in 1965. That's about $830,000 based on inflation adjusted dollars using the Consumer Price Index as a measure.
  
• The most Babe Ruth ever made was 1 million per year in today's (and that was for only two years, 30', and 31'). This is the most famous athlete in history, the father of modern baseball, and the player considered by most as the greatest player who ever lived.
  
• It was much publicized (often framed as an outrage) when Nolan Ryan signed for 1,000,000 with the Astros in 1980. That's "only" 3.4 million today. A-Rod has been guaranteed TEN TIMES that for the past three years.

"What do I care what he makes"? What a ridiculously obtuse question, unless, of course, you don't care about the quality of the product you're watching. Maybe you don't...

Long term, guaranteed contracts are bad for baseball. They're absolutely a disincentive compared to the days when salaries were actually PERFORMANCE based, not guaranteed LONG beforehand, "backloaded ", as predicated so often on hype and conjecture. As it stands this guy will continue to be guaranteed more than half of the total payroll of 33% of the franchises in baseball.

But, you're right, salaries haven't gotten out of control, and he's worth every penny....especially with the game on the line....

So much wrong with this post, I don't know where to begin. Oh, i'll start with the fact that free agency didn't exist in Willie's day - let alone the Babe's. The market, and more specifically Yankees management, dictated what Rodriguez was worth. Should he have turned down the money? Would you?

The fact that Ruth, Mays, etc were severely underpaid due to unfair rules of the time, in no way means that A-Rod is overpaid.

[EdTarbusz]

/. Oh, i'll start with the fact that free agency didn't exist in Willie's day - let alone the Babe's.

Free agency existed in baseball in Ruth's day, just not in the form that it does today. Ruth himself was a free agent when he signed with the Braves in 1935. Any player that received an unconditional release was a free agent. Without the draft all amateur players entering organized baseball were free agents as well.

Willie Mays's trade to the Mets in 1972 was kind of a precursor to the era of free agency that was coming up in 1975. Mays traded by Horace Stoneham to the Mets because Stoneham felt that the Mets would be able to pay Mays a much better salary then the Giants were able to.

[Yankwood]

Free agency existed in baseball in Ruth's day, just not in the form that it does today. Ruth himself was a free agent when he signed with the Braves in 1935. Any player that received an unconditional release was a free agent. Without the draft all amateur players entering organized baseball were free agents as well.

Willie Mays's trade to the Mets in 1972 was kind of a precursor to the era of free agency that was coming up in 1975. Mays traded by Horace Stoneham to the Mets because Stoneham felt that the Mets would be able to pay Mays a much better salary then the Giants were able to.

But this is far different than a player leaving his team in the prime of his career to shop himself around. Willie Mays in the 70's was not any kind of a player who would have garnered huge financial offers from anyone. And by 1935 Babe Ruth probably spent more money eating and drinking and smoking that he could have gotten in a free market. The Yanks didn't even want to keep him on as a manager. But Arod's still never been worth what he's made. The piddling numbers his broken down steroid riddled body will put up from this point on will make it look even sicker.