Discussion: ELO Rater Draft

[J W]

SETUP

- Each owner drafts a 25-man roster using the MLB EloRater at BB-Reference:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/ratings.cgi

- Each owner gets 50,000 points to work with (2000 points x25 players). Eligible players include any listed on the linked page above that are not active (not in bold). To put it in perspective, 2000 points today (1/8/12) would net you either Rusty Staub (225th rated batter) or Frank Tanana (76th rated pitcher).

- Snake ladder format. Draft order will be determined by randomizer.

- The draft will commence Sunday, January 14th tentatively at 12:00 pm EST.

- Selectors will have an eight-hour time period to make a selection. The hours between 2am and 8am in a selector's time zone will be exempt from this rule. If the timer runs out, the draft moves forward and the selector may make up the pick at his/her convenience.

- When a selection is made, the drafter will include the full name of the player and how many ELO points were used for the pick. ELO points for the day of the selection will be used. Because of this, edited picks will be forfeit until the selector's next scheduled pick, unless given special exemption. (for anyone double-checking, the ELO rating of a player may adjust slightly during the course of a day. we'll have to be honorable about our self-policing)

- At least 12 position players (including 2 catchers) and 9 pitchers must be drafted. DH will be included and pitchers will not bat unless specified, in order to accommodate pitchers with no batting statistics.

- After the draft is over, each selector will submit a managerial profile that includes all 25 selections. Managerial style will be considered modern-age. The profile will look similar to this:

PRIMARY LINEUP
1) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
2) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
3) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
4) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
5) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
6) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
7) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
8) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)
9) (pos) Name - L/R/S (backup)

PH vs LHP - Name(s)
PH vs RHP - Name(s)

ROTATION
SP1) Name - L/R
SP2) Name - L/R
SP3) Name - L/R
SP4) Name - L/R
SP5) Name - L/R (full time/spot starter)

BULLPEN
CL) Name - L/R
LHP) Name(s)
RHP) Name(s)
LONG) Name(s)

- Players will be eligible to play a position if they played at least 10% of their career innings at that position. CF will be able to play RF or LF. RF and LF are interchangeable. Anyone with batting statistics may DH.

- Players primarily known as starting pitchers may be used in the bullpen. The closer however must have at least 100 career saves.

- Game competition TBD.

SIGN-UP SHEET - deadline set Sunday, January 7th, 12:00 pm EST
1. Windy City Fan
2. John Shoemaker
3. Second Base Coach
4. Sockeye
5. chicagowhitesox1173
6. Wade8813
7. J W

Looks like we're set. Discussion will remain here: Draft thread will be posted separately.

[Windy City Fan]

Sounds interesting.

[John Shoemaker]

I agree - it sounds interesing.

[Second Base Coach]

Count me in if this happens!

[J W]

OK then; how about we do sign-ups here. I'll pencil in you three so far. Sign-up deadline to be determined within the week.

The draft will be conducted on a separate thread. Draft order will be determined by randomizer. Any suggestions on the length of the draft clock and/or when we hold session?

[Sockeye]

Interesting! Count me in!

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

OK then; how about we do sign-ups here. I'll pencil in you three so far. Sign-up deadline to be determined within the week.

The draft will be conducted on a separate thread. Draft order will be determined by randomizer. Any suggestions on the length of the draft clock and/or when we hold session?

Typical guidelines for fantasy drafts include:
-Eight hours to draft (with a "dead" time between 2am and 8am in a person's time zone)
-Centerfielders can play RF/LF
-RF and LF are interchangeable
-25-man roster consisting of at least 9 pitchers and 2 catchers

It is your draft, so use any rules you want. While I can't participate, I'd be happy to be a voter for playoff teams or anything else that needs be done. If it runs, I'll drop in occasionally to give my two cents. This is an awesome idea.

[Second Base Coach]

Does there HAVE to be a draft, or can we just pick our guys using 50,000 points?

The draft would remove duplication, sure...

And how do we determine who has the best team in the end?

[Windy City Fan]

I was looking at the Elo ratings, and I'd suggest lowering the point cap if the idea is force folks to make hard decisions. Right now, it would be pretty easy to get a typical all time draft starting lineup and rotation and fill inthe bench and bullpen with the left over points. I'd recommend droppingthe cap to 40K or 35K even. That would force some hard choices and put some different names into the mix.

[Second Base Coach]

I was looking at the Elo ratings, and I'd suggest lowering the point cap if the idea is force folks to make hard decisions. Right now, it would be pretty easy to get a typical all time draft starting lineup and rotation and fill inthe bench and bullpen with the left over points. I'd recommend droppingthe cap to 40K or 35K even. That would force some hard choices and put some different names into the mix.

That would also force managers to look for bargains (anyone woefully underrated).

[John Shoemaker]

Does there HAVE to be a draft, or can we just pick our guys using 50,000 points?

The draft would remove duplication, sure...

And how do we determine who has the best team in the end?

That would be kind of neat to just pick a team with a limit on the number of points without having a draft.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

can I join?

[Second Base Coach]

That would be kind of neat to just pick a team with a limit on the number of points without having a draft.

Drafts take longer than anyone thinks... yup!

[J W]

I made some changes to the first post; let me know if these work. I met you in the middle WCF (45k, 1800 per player). I don't want to take the HOFers out of the picture but they should come at a cost. I also want to make it clear that at least part of the bench and bullpen should be used extensively, as in real life.

Regarding results - It would be nice if someone were willing to simulate series but I think we'll be polling for it. I'm considering putting a minimum on plate appearances for each position (same number) and use 162 Game Avg statistics to fill them. Would like feedback.

Regarding draft vs. picking a team - I'm not big on duplicates, especially if we simulate. However, if by consensus you guys would rather use math and come up with a total, we can move this to the generic fantasy baseball section.

[Second Base Coach]

To help generate interest, a manager could go out and draft Brooklyn Dodgers. Anyone not familiar with the ratings numbers... just consider something like votes in a popularity contest. There is a good explanation of how the system works over at b-r. For our draft, we might consider this a player's "salary" and we have 45,000 dollars to work with. The numbers are as of December 30th in the wee hours of the morning and these can be found on their player pages:

C- Roy Campanella - 2278
1B- Gil Hodges - 2118
2B- Jim Gilliam- 1791
3B- Jackie Robinson - 2403
SS- Pee Wee Reese - 2214
LF- Zack Wheat - 2160
CF- Duke Snider - 2394

And before taking a right fielder, I might want to look at the other seven fellas and note I am way over budget (averaging 1800) so perhaps I will take the cheapest of these players: Dixie Walker (Ranked 296), Carl Furillo (319), Babe Herman (230), Oyster Burns (533), Jimmy Sheckard (320), or Willie Keeler (108)...

RF - Oyster Burns- 1679

That starting eight would "cost" 17037

If I continued on, I would have to look for bargains if I wanted to keep with that same theme. Pete Reiser is ranked 536 and would make a good DH if for no other reason but to keep him from running into the outfield walls.

DH- Pete Reiser- 1676

And so on... choosing pitchers next.... It sounds like a fun exercise, really.

I hope this helps anyone on the fence!

[Second Base Coach]

To help generate interest, a manager could go out and draft Brooklyn Dodgers. Anyone not familiar with the ratings numbers... just consider something like votes in a popularity contest. There is a good explanation of how the system works over at b-r. For our draft, we might consider this a player's "salary" and we have 45,000 dollars to work with. The numbers are as of December 30th in the wee hours of the morning and these can be found on their player pages:

C- Roy Campanella - 2278
1B- Gil Hodges - 2118
2B- Jim Gilliam- 1791
3B- Jackie Robinson - 2403
SS- Pee Wee Reese - 2214
LF- Zack Wheat - 2160
CF- Duke Snider - 2394

And before taking a right fielder, I might want to look at the other seven fellas and note I am way over budget (averaging 1800) so perhaps I will take the cheapest of these players: Dixie Walker (Ranked 296), Carl Furillo (319), Babe Herman (230), Oyster Burns (533), Jimmy Sheckard (320), or Willie Keeler (108)...

RF - Oyster Burns- 1679

That starting eight would "cost" 17037

If I continued on, I would have to look for bargains if I wanted to keep with that same theme. Pete Reiser is ranked 536 and would make a good DH if for no other reason but to keep him from running into the outfield walls.

DH- Pete Reiser- 1676

That leaves 15,361 for the roster other than the starting nine.

If you go with 25 guys, minus nine, that is 16 more spots at less than 1,000 each. Perhaps too low to guarantee a good starting rotation. Maybe we can get by with three good guys...

SP- Don Newcombe- 1915
SP- Dazzy Vance- 2068
SP- Burleigh Grimes- 1927

That helps in a short series. That also leaves me 9451 for 13 more players if we have 25 on the roster.

The initial amount of money may be too small. For example, even if I wanted to populate the rest of my bench with Billy Cox types, I would be short.

Billy Cox costs 1078.

If I want a decent bullpen, here is what that would cost:

Hugh Casey- 1325 (for #725 on the all time pitcher list)
Clem Labine- 1334


So what do we have? Well, if you populate your 25 man roster with five "types" of players, you get this:

Five guys about like Duke Snider = 12,000
Five guys about like Jim Gilliam = 9,000
Five pitchers about like Don Newcombe = 9,600
Five pitchers about like Hugh Casey = 6,600

That would cost 37,200 with five more hitters to buy. If we start with 45,000, the extra 7,800 divided by five gives you 1560 per hitter. Modern players at that level include Tom Brunansky and Juan Pierre and Yadier Molina. Perhaps the level of Jim Gilliam can be raised at the expense of the bench.

[Wade8813]

I'm in. Although it might be kinda weird, since my time zone's gonna be way different than any of yours...

How do we handle steroids? Do we allow players from the 1800s? Can SP be put in our bullpens? Can we trade? If so, can we trade while the draft is in progress?

Also, you might want to wait a little bit before starting - maybe give a week+ after registration closes. Give everyone time to research and formulate a strategy.

How do we handle Manny Ramirez, who may or may not still be playing? I've heard rumors that Posada is done. Is that true?

[Wade8813]

I actually think you should INCREASE the points.

I threw together a team...

Mize
Joe Morgan
Larkin
George Brett
Bench
Kiner
Sam Crawford
Al Simmons
Edgar Martinez

Feller
Ford
Hershiser
Kaat
Tiant

Mariano
Quiz
Billy Wagner

This team is really bad compared to any decent All-time team, and it has less than 1000 points left per slot it has to fill. I don't have a single player on this roster that I'd normally use a first, second, or even third round pick on.

People will have to look for bargains regardless. And you really can't just have a horrible bench and bullpen like WCF suggested, because voters will vote you down if you do.

[Second Base Coach]

Can I buy the 1977-1981 Dodgers with 45,000?

C-Steve Yeager............. 1,250
C-Mike Scioscia............. 1,594
1B-Steve Garvey........... 2,026 (for the 200th best position player of all-time)
2B-Davey Lopes............ 1,872
3B-Ron Cey.................. 1,988
SS-Bill Russell.............. 1,556
LF-Dusty Baker............. 1,841
CF-Rick Monday............ 1,742
RF-Reggie Smith........... 2,112

C,OF-Joe Ferguson........ 1,417
CI-Pedro Guerrero........ 1,917
PH-Manny Mota............ 1,400
MI-Derrel Thomas......... 1,011

That is 13 hitters at a cost of 21,726 or less than half my bank roll. I would like to include part of the 1974 team, but I don't think I can afford Jimmy Wynn and Bill Buckner and even Lee Lacy and still land a good pitching staff. Adding 1974 would give me Mike Marshall (the pitcher) and Andy Messersmith... but at what cost to my rotation?

Let's stick with 1977-1981 and see if we can get Fernando Valenzuela instead of a bunch of 1974 guys I can't afford anyway...

First the Bullpen:

Charlie Hough....... 1,812 (waaaay too high as this includes value as a starter)
Steve Howe.......... 1,270
Terry Forster........ 1,393

Those three guys put me at 26,201 for 16 players (Avg: 1638)

The starting pitchers are rather famous:

Don Sutton.................. 2,180 (not bad for #36 all time)
Tommy John................ 2,106 (too high to be #46)
Burt Hooton................. 1,728
Fernando Valenzuela..... 1,915
Jerry Reuss................. 1,819
Bob Welch.................. 1,911
Rick Rhoden................ 1,722

I can pass on Rau and Sutcliffe and Stewart.... I have ten pitchers. That gives me:

Twenty-three players costing 39,582. I could fight a good fight on a 40,000 budget.

But what if I expand my range to include the 1974 and work off of the 1974-1981 rosters, and cheat and add Dave Stewart and get the value of the Oakland A's starting pitcher rather than the Dodger reliever?

If I do that, I add in some solid guys (ignoring Tom Paciorek and Willie Crawford) and I would need the budget up to the suggested 45,000 dollars.

Key Additions:

Bill Buckner, an affordable Lee Lacy, Jimmy Wynn, Andy Messersmith, and Mike Marshall

Those last two pitchers can replace Hough and Rhoden. The three hitters replace Derrel Thomas. Stewart (wink, wink) goes in for Terry Forster.

I also need a backup shortstop. Did you know that Ivan de Jesus cam up with the Dodgers? I can live without Manny Mota... (sigh) and Ivan is actually cheaper!

That gives me this 25 man roster:

Don Sutton................... 2,180
Tommy John................. 2,106
Burt Hooton.................. 1,728
Fernando Valenzuela..... 1,915
Jerry Reuss.................. 1,819
Andy Messersmith........ 1,880
Dave Stewart............... 1,764 Seven starters and Middle Relief: 13392


Bob Welch................... 1,911
Steve Howe................. 1,270
Mike Marshall.............. 1,598 Three man bullpen: 4779


C-Mike Scioscia................. 1,594
1B-Steve Garvey............... 2,026
2B-Davey Lopes................ 1,872
3B-Ron Cey..................... 1,988
SS-Bill Russell.................. 1,556
LF-Dusty Baker................. 1,841
CF-Jimmy Wynn................ 2,032
RF-Reggie Smith............... 2,112 Starting Eight: 15,021

C-Steve Yeager................... 1,250
C,RF-Joe Ferguson.............. 1,417
CI,RF-Pedro Guerrero........ 1,917
SS-Ivan de Jesus................ 1,185
LF,1B-Bill Buckner.............. 1,889
OF, 2B-Lee Lacy..................1,365
CF-Rick Monday................ 1,742 Solid seven man bench with backups at all eight positions: 10,765

That's 25 guys... but what do they cost in total? How about: $43,957

Just Lovely!

That's leaving 1,043 on the table. Perhaps I will allow myself two "cheats" with former Dodgers. Can I fit Mike Piazza and Rickey Henderson on this squad?

Henderson: 2561..... plus Piazza at 2,414 would mean I need to find 4975 somewhere.

I am adding a catcher and an outfielder, so goodbye Joe Ferguson. Either Dusty Baker or Bill Buckner has to go because Henderson plays left now... and since Buckner can play first base.... Dusty Baker is put back.

So with the cuts, I have 1,841 plus 1,417 plus 1,043 equals 4301. I am still 674 short. Turning Davey Lopes into Steve Sax (there's a trick!) will save some but not enough. Besides, I like Lopes here...

I have no connection to Messersmith, really. So 1880-674 is 1206. I could replace him with a Dodger relief pitcher worth 1206. Lima time! at 989 would do it, but my heart can't take it.

Eric Gagne costs 1434 so changing Messersmith to Gagne saves me 446. I now need to find 228...

Jerry Reuss at 1819 replaced by Ramon Martinez at 1579 gives me 240. Bingo!

And I still have twelve dollars for lunch! :-)

But could I DRAFT this team? That depends on you people. I would have to take these guys in some sort of "demand for talent" order. Here is the draft list.... but not ordered...

Don Sutton..................... 2,180
Tommy John................... 2,106
Burt Hooton.................... 1,728
Fernando Valenzuela....... 1,915
Dave Stewart.................. 1,764


Bob Welch...................... 1,911
Ramon Martinez…........... 1,579
Steve Howe.................... 1,270
Mike Marshall.................. 1,598
Eric Gagne………….......…. 1,434


C-Mike Scioscia............... 1,594
1B-Steve Garvey............. 2,026
2B-Davey Lopes.............. 1,872
3B-Ron Cey..................... 1,988
SS-Bill Russell................. 1,556
LF-Rickey Henderson…..... 2,561
CF-Jimmy Wynn............... 2,032
RF-Reggie Smith.............. 2,112
DH-Mike Piazza……......…. 2,414

C-Steve Yeager................ 1,250
CI, RF-Pedro Guerrero...... 1,917
SS-Ivan de Jesus.............. 1,185
LF, 1B-Bill Buckner........... 1,889
OF, 2B-Lee Lacy................1,365
CF-Rick Monday................ 1,742

Unless I ran into another Dodger fan, I could probably get all these guys in a 12 team draft due to the narrow nature of the roster. I would go for Henderson then Piazza in the first two rounds and then Smith and Wynn and Mike Marshall (like it would matter).

I could auto-pick this team, sure. It may not win the league, but I would enjoy running the team. There are no Brooklyn Dodgers here, but the ones I would want I cannot afford. Their "lovable-ness" is driving up their ratings I believe. I could really gut my bench and try to get Jeff Kent and Eddie Murray on this team, but I don't think the voters will look too kindly on a front-ended roster. I regret not having Kevin Brown and Orel Hershiser, but the Rater has them both in the top fifty (riiiiight). I could change out Hooten and Welch, but that would weaken my bench for sure, and perhaps cost me Wynn or Marshall in some sort of "salary dump".

[J W]

I'm in. Although it might be kinda weird, since my time zone's gonna be way different than any of yours...

No biggie - thanks for joining

How do we handle steroids? Do we allow players from the 1800s? Can SP be put in our bullpens? Can we trade? If so, can we trade while the draft is in progress?

I assume steroids/1800s are considered when people rate these players, so yes anyone counts. If CF can go to LF/RF, SP should be allowed for bullpen use; I'll add that in with a caveat for closer. No trading.

Also, you might want to wait a little bit before starting - maybe give a week+ after registration closes. Give everyone time to research and formulate a strategy.

That's fine - which reminds me to set a closing sign-in date. I'd like to set both dates after we get to eight participants. Anyone else want to join?

How do we handle Manny Ramirez, who may or may not still be playing? I've heard rumors that Posada is done. Is that true?

Since we're doing this in-between seasons, I'll stick with the rule: if they are in bold, they are out.

[J W]

I could auto-pick this team, sure. It may not win the league, but I would enjoy running the team.

Nice team. Relatively deep lineup, albeit heavy on the RH hitting. If anything it helps us out as to what to look for.

[Wade8813]

Nice team. Relatively deep lineup, albeit heavy on the RH hitting. If anything it helps us out as to what to look for.

See, this is my issue. If you want to water down the talent, that's fine, but for an all-time league that team is terrible. I'd say 2/3 of those guys have never been picked in any of the couple dozen drafts I've done, and of the ones that would be taken, most go in the late rounds.

If you prefer that we be restricted to worse players, that's fine - just let me know and I'll stop campaigning for a higher point limit. I mean, when an All-Time team can't even afford Orel Hershiser...

[John Shoemaker]

Not a complaint - just a question: why did you choose not to use active players in the draft since they have an ELO Rater number and we'll hopefully be done with the draft before the 2012 season starts?

[Second Base Coach]

See, this is my issue. If you want to water down the talent, that's fine, but for an all-time league that team is terrible. I'd say 2/3 of those guys have never been picked in any of the couple dozen drafts I've done, and of the ones that would be taken, most go in the late rounds.

If you prefer that we be restricted to worse players, that's fine - just let me know and I'll stop campaigning for a higher point limit. I mean, when an All-Time team can't even afford Orel Hershiser...

Taking Orel would have been acceptable, but he was not part of the team I originally worked with. And did you know he is ranked #51 by the Rater? Thats pretty high if you ask me and he is a good example of an expensive "over-rated" player.

And if you want to see a stronger All-Time Dodger team, I would have to incorporate some of the boys from Brooklyn. There isn't enough money available to take the very best guys ranging from Jackie Robinson to Mike Piazza.

I could draft a nice batting order, but with a woeful bench and pitching staff.

The original average of 1,800 will buy you "Dodgers" like Rick Sutcliffe or Jim Gilliam.

I still like my team and perhaps we would fare better than what might be expected if the salary cap stays in place "as is".

[Wade8813]

Taking Orel would have been acceptable, but he was not part of the team I originally worked with. And did you know he is ranked #51 by the Rater? Thats pretty high if you ask me and he is a good example of an expensive "over-rated" player.

That rank is compared to other pitchers. Hard to say if he's overrated or not.

And if you want to see a stronger All-Time Dodger team, I would have to incorporate some of the boys from Brooklyn. There isn't enough money available to take the very best guys ranging from Jackie Robinson to Mike Piazza.

I could draft a nice batting order, but with a woeful bench and pitching staff.

The original average of 1,800 will buy you "Dodgers" like Rick Sutcliffe or Jim Gilliam.

I still like my team and perhaps we would fare better than what might be expected if the salary cap stays in place "as is".

Right. My point wasn't that you did a bad job constructing your team. It was that our point cap handcuffs us. It wouldn't surprise me if there are real teams that can't even be constructed with the points restriction we have right now.

Although that raises another question - what do we do with players who aren't good enough to even appear on the ELO Rater? Obviously it won't come up too much, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for someone to want to punt one bench slot to save points.