Discussion: ELO Rater Draft

[Second Base Coach]

That rank is compared to other pitchers. Hard to say if he's overrated or not.


Isn't that what "rating" means? :-P

[Second Base Coach]

What do we do with players who aren't good enough to even appear on the ELO Rater? Obviously it won't come up too much, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for someone to want to punt one bench slot to save points.

Those players must work for free...

[Wade8813]

That rank is compared to other pitchers. Hard to say if he's overrated or not.

Isn't that what "rating" means? :-P

Well, if it had included position players (as some lists try to do), then he'd clearly be overrated. Although technically, our system is assuming the ELO score for pitchers and batters are equivalent, which means you CAN combine their value. Which means he's viewed as approximately 200th best player (including position players). He's probably overrated, but not it's not overwhelmingly obviously wrong, like some of the ratings are.

Those players must work for free...

Heh, that would certainly be an interesting twist.

[Second Base Coach]

Well, if it had included position players (as some lists try to do), then he'd clearly be overrated. Although technically, our system is assuming the ELO score for pitchers and batters are equivalent, which means you CAN combine their value. Which means he's viewed as approximately 200th best player (including position players). He's probably overrated, but not it's not overwhelmingly obviously wrong, like some of the ratings are.


Heh, that would certainly be an interesting twist.

Doug Flynn is priced at 617 and there is a hugh gap between him and the 1762 players above him.

Bill Hart (Pitcher number 1058) is the lowest priced pitcher at 475, but again there is a gap and these guys have not been rated nearly as often as those players in their neighborhood on the chart. It may be a programming error of some sort.

I cannot begin to imagine what player someone here would want who would not already be on that elo list.

Roy Hobbs?

[Second Base Coach]

The Dodgers from my baseball card collecting youth came in under the 45,000 budget. But what about a stronger historical team? What does ELO have to say about these fellows? (Note this is not an attempt to start a discussion about Hodges and Furillo belonging rather than Guerrero and Garvey. I am just looking at the budget limit).


C-Roy Campanella..............2274
1B-Steve Garvey................2029
2B-Jackie Robinson............2416
3B-Ron Cey........................1996
SS-Pee Wee Reese.............2199
LF-Zack Wheat...................2162
CF-Duke Snider...................2395
RF-Pedro Guerrero..............1918
DH-Mike Piazza..................2429

The starting nine cost 19,818 (AVG: 2,202)

Bench:

C-Mike Scioscia...................1578
1B-Gil Hodges.....................2097
2B,3B,LF-Jim Gilliam............1792
SS-Maury Wills....................1929
CF-Pete Reiser....................1678
RF-Carl Furillo.....................1888

The six on the bench cost 10,962 (AVG:1,827)

Cherry Picked Bullpen:

RP-Mike Marshall.................1592
RP-Eric Gagne.....................1432
RP-Steve Howe...................1278

The three in the bullpen cost 4,302 (AVG:1,434)

Pitchers (Listed by Win Shares as Dodgers):

Don Drysdale......................2183
Don Sutton.........................2185
Dazzy Vance.......................2085
Sandy Koufax......................2386
Orel Hershiser.....................2092
Fernando Valenzuela...........1918
Don Newcombe...................1932

The seven potential starting pitchers cost 14,781 (AVG:2,111.6)

All seven starting pitchers are in the top 103 pitchers with the first five within the top 52.

At a quick glance it looks like 50,000 would make a decent all-time team. (25 times 2,000)

I typed that before adding up the actual total... of.. 49,863. Not a bad guess on my part, eh?

Money can be saved in the bullpen to help pay for "popular" hitters, sure. But unless you start drafting 19th century guys who appear to be bargains, it will take 50K to field a decent team chock full of players the average fan has heard of.

[Wade8813]

Doug Flynn is priced at 617 and there is a hugh gap between him and the 1762 players above him.

Bill Hart (Pitcher number 1058) is the lowest priced pitcher at 475, but again there is a gap and these guys have not been rated nearly as often as those players in their neighborhood on the chart. It may be a programming error of some sort.

I cannot begin to imagine what player someone here would want who would not already be on that elo list.

Roy Hobbs?

Well, presumably if you want anyone worse than them, it would be just one person on your team who would never leave the bench. So you'd want someone with the absolute lowest points possible. Like Mario Mendoza, but worse.

[J W]

Money can be saved in the bullpen to help pay for "popular" hitters, sure. But unless you start drafting 19th century guys who appear to be bargains, it will take 50K to field a decent team chock full of players the average fan has heard of.

That's right, and that is what I originally put down, 50k. Windy City Fan wanted 40k, so I split the difference. So do we want to do more of a top shelf league or more of a thrift league? I'm not going below 45k or above 50k.

[John Shoemaker]

That's right, and that is what I originally put down, 50k. Windy City Fan wanted 40k, so I split the difference. So do we want to do more of a top shelf league or more of a thrift league? I'm not going below 45k or above 50k.

I agree with Windy City Fan so I'd go with 45k rather than 50k.

[Wade8813]

I'm more in favor of 50k. I'd have to do more mathing than I want to do to figure out what my ideal point total would be, but since over 50k isn't an option, I'll just say 50k.

[Second Base Coach]

I would think 45K would force a manager to choose someone he really didn't care for too much. It would involve "settling".

But many real-life GMs do the same, no?

In the case of my Dodgers, I might have to roll with Lopes instead of Robinson, or take a peak value guy like Reiser instead of an expensive Snider. Decisions like that will have to be made.

[Wade8813]

Real life managers do the same, but they're not dealing with All-time teams either. And they get to trade ;-)

[J W]

So, I've got two votes for 45k, one vote for 50k... and I'm not sure what vote Second Base Coach gave. Could you clarify please?

Registration has stalled so I'm declaring a deadline of this Sunday, January 7th at 12:00 pm EST. The draft will start Sunday, January 14th.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I'm new to this sort of draft so I would want 50k so maybe it'll make it easier on me. But whatever is decided is fine with me.

[Second Base Coach]

So, I've got two votes for 45k, one vote for 50k... and I'm not sure what vote Second Base Coach gave. Could you clarify please?

Registration has stalled so I'm declaring a deadline of this Sunday, January 7th at 12:00 pm EST. The draft will start Sunday, January 14th.

I would like to work with 50,000 and more clarification on the draft and how we will determine who "wins". Will there be a sim, or something?

[John Shoemaker]

Not a complaint - just a question: why did you choose not to use active players in the draft since they have an ELO Rater number and we'll hopefully be done with the draft before the 2012 season starts?

I never recieved an answer to this question. Again - not complaining just wondering why we can't use active players? I just think that would give us a bigger pool of players to pick from whether we go with 45,000 or 50,000.

[J W]

I want players that represent a full career arc, and though certain players like Posada should stay about the same in ELO rating from here on out, this is the simplest decision. Looks like 50,000 is going to win the day. The best I can do in the near future is set up polls -- is there anyone with all-time sim data available to run a few quick series?

[Wade8813]

Glad this is getting started!

BTW, while this doesn't officially start until the 14th, I think we should allow people to make picks earlier if they want to - they just don't have to worry about being skipped.

[John Shoemaker]

Glad this is getting started!

BTW, while this doesn't officially start until the 14th, I think we should allow people to make picks earlier if they want to - they just don't have to worry about being skipped.

That sounds like a good idea to me.

[J W]

Sure. Whatever saves us time. Clock starts Sunday, picks made at discretion before then.

[Second Base Coach]

Is someone running a sim? If not, how are we determining who did the best job of spending 50K?

[J W]

If someone is willing to run a sim, great. Otherwise, we'll be doing polls. Each owner will be given opportunity to do a write up explaining their strategy. The managerial profile will constitute a full season's worth of play.

[Second Base Coach]

POLLS? POLLS? That would be opinions based on opinions. Ugh!

[Second Base Coach]

Are we using designated hitters?

[John Shoemaker]

Are we using designated hitters?

yes we are.

[J W]

POLLS? POLLS? That would be opinions based on opinions. Ugh!

I would prefer a sim. I'll have to download something if I run it though. Any suggestions? Would be looking to run a shortened season and seven-game series, using career data.