BA and OPS

[Joltin' Joe]

Stats like WAR and WIN SHARES take all of this guesswork out of it.

I can't agree that it takes the guesswork out of it. WAR and Win Shares are good stats but they are not absolute and it is one person's guess work of how valuable something is. It is not a cut and dry stat like Usain Bolt's 100 meter time.

Batting average is clearly way less important than either OBP or SLG%.

Yes I agree that BA is the least important of the three but my point was that when OBPs and SAs are that close, the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker".

[SavoyBG]

Yes I agree that BA is the least important of the three but my point was that when OBPs and SAs are that close, the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker".

Why is that? Is there some reaserach that proves that batting average is the most important portion of OPS?

[Joltin' Joe]

Why is that? Is there some reaserach that proves that batting average is the most important portion of OPS?

Huh? I specifically stated in the sentence you are quoting of me that BA is the least important of the OPS troica.

[SavoyBG]

Huh? I specifically stated in the sentence you are quoting of me that BA is the least important of the OPS troica.

I am talking about when you wrote....

"the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker"."

Why is the batting average the tie breaker, rather than the OBP or the SLG% ?

[Joltin' Joe]

I am talking about when you wrote....

"the significant delta in the BA does come into play as a "tie breaker"."

Why is the batting average the tie breaker, rather than the OBP or the SLG% ?

I really wish you would actually read my post if you are going to quote me. I said if the OBP and the Slug are close, then the significant delta in the batting average would be a tie breaker. The road OBP and Slugs are virtually a tie for Dewey and Mad Dog, however Mad Dog's batting average is significantly higher.

[SavoyBG]

I really wish you would actually read my post if you are going to quote me. I said if the OBP and the Slug are close, then the significant delta in the batting average would be a tie breaker. The road OBP and Slugs are virtually a tie for Dewey and Mad Dog, however Mad Dog's batting average is significantly higher.

So, why does the higher batting average become the tie breaker, rather than the isolated power, which Evans wins .170 to .123.

Do you have some research that shows that batting average is a more important component of SLG% than isolated power?

[Joltin' Joe]

So, why does the higher batting average become the tie breaker, rather than the isolated power, which Evans wins .170 to .123.

Fair question, I actually made a thread asking the same questions, have you seen it?

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?107147-Which-player-is-the-better-hitter-and-why

[SavoyBG]

Fair question, I actually made a thread asking the same questions, have you seen it?

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...hitter-and-why

Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.

I checked, and Madlock hit into DPs more often than Evans, including one season where Madlock led the league with 25 GIDPs.

Evans - 10569 PA - 227 GIDPs - one every 46.6 PA
Madlock - 7372 PA - 190 GIDPs - one every 38.8 PA

[J W]

Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?

[brett]

brett posted this:

Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?

That is correct given RANDOM production. The guy with the .260 average has to make up 20 points on his on base percentage with walks, AND 20 points on his slugging percentage with extra bases to make up for 20 points lower in batting average. A walk and an extra base are only worth about .7 of a single though so the .260 guy gives up 20 points in batting average but gains back about 28 points worth in other production to bring his other rates up to the level of the first guy.

However I have tended to find that higher batting average guys tend get slightly more run value from their walks, hits and extra bases than if they were produced randomly. Joe Morgan (for a negative example) only hit about .230 with a .350 slugging percentage in situations where a hit was much more valuable than a walk. Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Boggs all hit almost identically to their career rates with a runner on second and 2 outs.

There is a counterbalance to what you are saying here. You're focusing on the value of singles versus walks, and there's no doubt the single is better. So in the area of making up the BA difference in OB Pct, the BA is better. However, if BA is lower, you need more XBH, or isolated power, to make the slugging percentage equal--and those XBH are superior to the singles. If it's not a wash, it comes close to it, IMHO.

[SavoyBG]

Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?

Maybe not. The one with more singles is more likely to be thrown out trying to stretch a hit, and is more likely to hit into DPs. He is using more outs up too.

[jalbright]

Re: batting average being the tie-breaker

When two players are normalized to the same OPS, including OBP and SLG%, and one has a higher batting average than the other, that means that Player A has more base hits than Player B and Player B has more walks/hbp/etc than Player A. Since a base-runner can take more than one base from a base hit, then that means Player A has the potential to create more runs than Player B.

So, a normalized 280-350-420 line is more valuable than a normalized 260-350-420 line. Right?

That is correct given RANDOM production. The guy with the .260 average has to make up 20 points on his on base percentage with walks, AND 20 points on his slugging percentage with extra bases to make up for 20 points lower in batting average. A walk and an extra base are only worth about .7 of a single though so the .260 guy gives up 20 points in batting average but gains back about 28 points worth in other production to bring his other rates up to the level of the first guy.

However I have tended to find that higher batting average guys tend get slightly more run value from their walks, hits and extra bases than if they were produced randomly. Joe Morgan (for a negative example) only hit about .230 with a .350 slugging percentage in situations where a hit was much more valuable than a walk. Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Boggs all hit almost identically to their career rates with a runner on second and 2 outs.

There is a counterbalance to what you are saying here. You're focusing on the value of singles versus walks, and there's no doubt the single is better. So in the area of making up the BA difference in OB Pct, the BA is better. However, if BA is lower, you need more XBH, or isolated power, to make the slugging percentage equal--and those XBH are superior to the singles. If it's not a wash, it comes close to it, IMHO.

[jalbright]

Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.

That is a reasonable argument and the type of stuff I was looking for when I created that thread, you should post on it.
That being said, not all high BA guys with low isolated discipline/power hit into lot of GIDP, Ichiro is a prime example.

Just looked at it, and it's not really clear which player is better. But what is clear is that there's no strong evidence that we should automatically prefer the higher batting average when both players are roughly equal in OBP and SLG%. Usually the higher batting average guy will use up more outs along the way, imcluding hitting into more DPs, since he puts the ball in play more often and would be less of a flyball hitter than the Evans or Thome type.

That is a reasonable argument and the type of stuff I was looking for when I created that thread, you should post on it.
That being said, not all high BA guys with low isolated discipline/power hit into lot of GIDP, Ichiro is a prime example.

I checked, and Madlock hit into DPs more often than Evans, including one season where Madlock led the league with 25 GIDPs.

[jalbright]

Actually, I'm not even sure the agreement at the start of the thread that BA isn't the most important is accurate. At the very least, it depends on how one defines important. If it's the spread in BA, that may be generally true, because BA is more tightly bunched than slg % or OBP. However, BA is a vital ingredient of both stats, as OBP is mostly BA, but with walks and HBP included (among other considerations). Slg % is BA plus isolated power percentage. So BA counts twice in OPS+. Even for an extreme case, a low BA with high walk totals and lots of power type like Adam Dunn, about 65% of his OBP comes from BA, and over 45% of his slg% comes from BA. For the average player, it's more like 80% of OBP and 63% of slugging.

[Ubiquitous]

If you have two players with similar SLG then the one with the lower AVG is actually putting more runs on the board since he is being more efficient with his hits.