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Thread: 2012 Spring training

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike D. View Post
    I just think a little more time in AAA will help Iglesias bat in the long run. Remember, he didn't hit well at that level in '11, but he's only been in the US 1 1/2 years and was young for AAA. If he can hit .240-.260 in the majors, that'll be plenty. But right now, I think he'd be as likely to hit .200 as he would be to hit .250.
    Exactly my thoughts. All indications are that Iglesias's hitting is quite a bit more advanced than it was a year ago in ST. A healthy half season or so of regular at bats in the minor will help him a lot more than being thrown into the majors right now. That's what Mike Aviles is here for and there is absolutely nothing that suggests he couldn't be decent defensive SS with a bit of pop in his bat.

    If Iglesias takes over for the second half or even next year as a player who can hit .250 with about a .300 OBP, he will be a valuable major leaguer. If he hits .200 or below then even with his fielding it will be though.

    In the end the whole Iglesias/Bard/Lavarnway discussion depends on whether you take a 2012-view point (as Bobby Valentine probably does) or a longer term point of view (as I guess the FO does).

    Iglesias defense is more then ML-ready, but if you keep him in the minors he will likely become a better hitter (esp offspead stuff) and thus be more valuable over the whole duration of his contract. Plus you start his arb clock later, so the Sox actually will have control for one year more!

    The same with Lavarnway. His bat is more than ML-ready, but if you let him start in P'tucket to work on his receiving skills, he will be more valuable over the whole duration of his contract.

    A similar argument could be made about Bard. He is one of the best relievers in the game right now. But if could become a decent no. 3 or 4 starter he has more value! A few spring training innings are likely not enough to judge that. You probably need to let him start for two to three months as it might take time for him to become a "pitcher". So long term, you might want to give him this time, while short term you'd rather have him as the dominant bullpen ace.

    Prediction on Iglesias: will start in AAA, Aviles is Red Sox SS.
    Preference: The same.

    Prediction on Lavarnway: will start in AAA, Lars Anderson or Ciriaco take the 25th man spot.
    Preference: The same.

    Prediction on Bard: will start as no. 4 or 5 SP. Aceves goes to the pen.
    Preference: torn. 50.1% he should go back to pen; 49.9% he should start. But I guess give him the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season can't hurt too much. You can still move him back to pen, right?
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  2. #42
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    Looks like Nick Cafardo at the Globe agrees on Bard.

    With Lavarnway, I think he's ready...and if they had a spot where he could play every day (DH or starting catcher) I'd say put him in the majors. Playing every day in AAA will be better for him than sitting on the bench in the big leagues, though. By mid-season, injuries or ineffectiveness could open a spot for him somewhere, and he can continue working on his defense in the meantime.
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  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike D. View Post
    Looks like Nick Cafardo at the Globe agrees on Bard.

    With Lavarnway, I think he's ready...and if they had a spot where he could play every day (DH or starting catcher) I'd say put him in the majors. Playing every day in AAA will be better for him than sitting on the bench in the big leagues, though. By mid-season, injuries or ineffectiveness could open a spot for him somewhere, and he can continue working on his defense in the meantime.
    I would let him catch too. his bat seems to be the real deal so this compensates a bad D. the yanks had posada for a decade and still won a lot. piazza was not good either.

    the only concern I would have was if the rotation of the Red sox really struggles. then I might prefer an experienced catcher. but usually I would trade some D for a batter bat.
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  4. #44
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    "After much discussion and speculation, the Red Sox obtained relievers Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz from the Cubs for Theo Epstein. Chances are Epstein will make a bigger impact on the Cubs than Carpenter and Kurcz will on the Red Sox, but Red Sox ownership seemed to lose leverage once Epstein started working for the Cubs. At least they got something for letting their longtime GM go."

    That and similar sentences I read a lot in baseball specific media. Some guys in this board still do not believe it. But let's forgive them and talk about ST decisions.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Regarding Aviles/Iglesias:
    Mike Aviles will and should be the Red Sox opening day starter. It won't be the prettiest left side of the infield defensively but it will be acceptable. Iglesias needs to start the season in the minors and develop as a hitter! Aviles will be one of the big surprises for the 2012 Red Sox.
    It would be shortsighted to hand the starting ss position to Iglesias just yet.
    Agreed. Iglesias is not at all ready. He has no power and no on-base skills. In a perfect world he would develop into Elvis Andrus. I rather think it will be Alcides Escobar (jikes...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Regarding Bard:
    I'm continuing to be torn on whether I want Bard in the rotation or the pen. I think the Sox (or at least the FO) will give him a chance to prove himself as a starter. The question I have is this: How long a leash will he be given. From a long term point of view, he should probably be given until about June even if the results are shaky (It is conceivable that he will need some time to adjust to the starter role). From a short term point of view if he struggles as a starter in April you want to think about putting him back in the pen - where he was one of the best last year - way earlier than June.
    I wish the Sox had signed Kuroda or Oswalt for the 4th starter role. Then they could hand the 5th starter spot to Doubront and have Aceves and Bard in the pen.
    I understand the Kuroda-Oswalt thing. But I believe that Bard can be a pitcher like Morrow. His upside is huge. He is not expensive at all and under team control. So why not try and see if we have a really good young starter instead of a young set-up man? I think he'll be given the whole season if he does not put up horrible results. Meaning an ERA under 5, a BB/9 under 5 and a K/9 over 7 and regularly 6 innings per start.

    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Regarding Lavarnway:
    He should start in Pawtucket and improve his catching skills. I think handing him the backup catcher position now will hurt his value long term. But if he is added to the MLB team, I'm ok with that.
    The Red Sox will have a luxury problem not very far from today. Salty or/and Lavarnway? I have no clue: but is Lavarnway better than Martinez right now as a catcher? If yes, he should be in the MLB. He raked in ST and destroyed AAA last year. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. Maybe he will be the DH next year. I hope he will.
    Last edited by SwissRedSoxFan; 03-27-2012 at 10:49 AM.

  6. #46
    the red sox send down iglesias http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...s_mlb&c_id=mlb

    seems like aviles will win the job.

    I think this is the right decision.he is a good talent but he hasn't really mastered AAA ball yet. let him rake there before you call him to the majors then it will be his job.
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  7. #47
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    Lars Anderson has been sent down and Ciriaco has a .649 OPS in more than 3000 at bats in the minors. He could be the lucky guy Valentine chose to like.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwissRedSoxFan View Post
    Lars Anderson has been sent down and Ciriaco has a .649 OPS in more than 3000 at bats in the minors. He could be the lucky guy Valentine chose to like.
    Perhaps. They might also bring Lavarnway north for a few weeks (whoever goes it'll only be until Crawford comes back) or use the spot to carry a bullpen arm who's out of options.
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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    the red sox send down iglesias http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...s_mlb&c_id=mlb

    seems like aviles will win the job.

    I think this is the right decision.he is a good talent but he hasn't really mastered AAA ball yet. let him rake there before you call him to the majors then it will be his job.
    I go with Dave Cameron's (fangraphs) comment on this:
    Kid who hits .235 in Triple-A last year gets optioned back to Triple-A. This is now breaking news?
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    I go with Dave Cameron's (fangraphs) comment on this:
    I agree however many guys thought he would be the starting SS already this season.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  11. #51
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    How much worse could our rotation be without John Lackey. It's a joke, but at the same time I'm quite serious. He was clearly that horrible, so any pitcher replacing him couldn't be that terrible. I expect Bard, Aceves, Padilla, and Cook. This team did win a large amount of games last year without Buchholz for the second half of the season and Lackey basically going out every fifth day giving up 5-7 runs. Also, 4th and 5th starters are not going to be dominate or, in most teams cases, decent starters. If they keep the team in the game, they're doing their job. Not like Lackey, who basically lost games by giving up 6-8 runs a number of times last year and got bailed out by the dominate offense.

    I stick with Bard for the upside. Hopefully, if happens to falter, he can pick up his role in the bullpen again. Same applies to Aceves. Ideal situation to me is Cook and Padilla can break camp with 4/5 spot and handle their job and Aceves and Bard return to bullpen to sure up the bullpen even further. Though, Bard's upside is appealing. Not like Aceves can't handle starting either, but I don't see Cook or Padilla being of much use in the bullpen, especially Cook with no track record for the bullpen.

  12. #52
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    i wonder what we do when Dice-K comes back mid way through the season

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Boxer View Post
    i wonder what we do when Dice-K comes back mid way through the season
    Probably not worth worrying about now...these things tend to work themselves out. Someone will get hurt and not pitch well, or he won't pitch well and won't push for spot.
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Boxer View Post
    i wonder what we do when Dice-K comes back mid way through the season
    My fervent hope is that the staff is pitching so well at that point that Dice-K is only used to mop up...both in the occasional blowout wins and losses AND in the generally filthy men's rooms at Fenway during the other games.

  15. #55
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    rotation is set: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard.

    Serious questions in the pen. Bailey was suppose to throw yesterday and did not. Now there is talk of a forearm or elbow injury. With the Sox crack medical staff, who knows what the deal is.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Boxer View Post
    rotation is set: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard.

    Serious questions in the pen. Bailey was suppose to throw yesterday and did not. Now there is talk of a forearm or elbow injury. With the Sox crack medical staff, who knows what the deal is.
    Apparently Bailey has a thumb injury;

    http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sp...y-in-jeopardy/

    No timetable as to how long he'll be out, Aceves or Melanson may close until he returns, though I think Bard would be better suited for closer, but we all knew the Sox were going to have Bard in the rotation so Aceves may make the most sense till Bailey returns.

    Kudos to Doubrant for winning the 4th starter spot in the rotation, I think he earned it.

    I imagine they'll see how well Bard and Doubrant do for the first month or 6 weeks, then if one or both aren't doing so well, they'll call up Cook and place Bard or Doubrant in the pen. Should be interesting to watch, hopefully they both do well and won't have to call Cook up.
    Last edited by Dogdaze; 04-01-2012 at 10:51 AM.

  17. #57
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    just saw the Bailey update on the Sox v. Twins game on NESN. Doubront really pitched well and deserved it for sure. I am still worried about the bull pen and think Doubront and Cook makes more sense with Bard closing and Aceves in the pen as well. You are not looking for a 20 game winner from the #5 spot in the rotation...I think Cook/Padilla would be more than servicable as the #5 and Bard/Aceves makes the pen 100 times better.

    either way, i am looking forward to the start of the season.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Boxer View Post
    rotation is set: Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Doubront, Bard.
    I think they got this exactly right....even having Doubront #4 and Bard #5. With Bard in the #5 spot, it'll be a bit easier to manage his innings...I don't think they need a #5 the first 8-10 days of the season, for example, and if they can skip his turn a couple other times to get him more rest, it'll help manage his innings/workload.

    Hopefully Bailey's thumb injury isn't serious and they can manage the back end of the pen with Melancon and Aceves. Having Cook in AAA in case Doubront or Bard pitch poorly the first 6 weeks or so or there is an injury is a nice cushion they didn't have last year.
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  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike D. View Post
    I think they got this exactly right....even having Doubront #4 and Bard #5. With Bard in the #5 spot, it'll be a bit easier to manage his innings...I don't think they need a #5 the first 8-10 days of the season, for example, and if they can skip his turn a couple other times to get him more rest, it'll help manage his innings/workload.

    Hopefully Bailey's thumb injury isn't serious and they can manage the back end of the pen with Melancon and Aceves. Having Cook in AAA in case Doubront or Bard pitch poorly the first 6 weeks or so or there is an injury is a nice cushion they didn't have last year.
    Love it! Doubront was expected in the rotation a year ago, when he came into ST out of shape. Good he did it at least a year later rather than never. As far as I'm concerned he should have no innings limit at all. When Bard reaches his limit you can still put in Padilla, Cook or Aceves. Padilla was very close to the rotation I think. I was positiley surprised the way he pitched. And besides: I'm an Eephus-pitch-fan....

    Positive projection for Doubront 2012: 180 innings, 4.65 ERA, 1.35 whip, 7 K/9.

    If Bailey goes down, I'm concerned about the pen though.
    Last edited by SwissRedSoxFan; 04-02-2012 at 03:02 AM.

  20. #60
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    I'm hoping they're smart about Bard's useage, so he doesn't "hit his innings limit". Not like the Nationals are doing with SS, "He'll go 160 innings and then get shut down".

    By pitching him in the #5 spot, they should be able to skip him a few times due to the schedule and/or rainouts. A "phantom" DL spell with Cook, Padilla, or Aceves taking the spot for a couple weeks wouldn't shock me, either. You don't want him at his innings limit in July, because this team has intentions to be a playoff team, and you want your best pitchers on the mound in October.
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