2012 Cardinals Season Thread

[Ben Grimm]

Chris Carpenter's close to returning. He's throwing a 90-pitch simulated game on Saturday, and it's possible he'll get the start next Thursday vs Houston.

[DerekD]

He's on schedule for Friday against the Cubs. This team could use a little spark.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Not quite the way it was drawn up, but a fighting chance at least. On the other hand, if I were told last Nov. that we would have no Pujols in 2012, no Carpenter, virtually no Berkman, and a very mediocre Wainwright, I would have been very happy with 87-88 wins.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Trying to decide if I should put 2012 on my signature or wait to see if they win Friday night. Seems a little watered down, but PS is PS.

[dominik]

great win by the Cards. Hopefully this will continue.the offense is good but the rotation without a real ace (Wainwright not back at 100% yet) doesn't give me a good feeling. This is not a playoff team rotation.

the cards need a miracle by carpenter who is often injured but can find his form again quickly

[DerekD]

I think the pitching matchups favor the Cards for sure.

[Bothrops Atrox]

great win by the Cards. Hopefully this will continue.the offense is good but the rotation without a real ace (Wainwright not back at 100% yet) doesn't give me a good feeling. This is not a playoff team rotation.

the cards need a miracle by carpenter who is often injured but can find his form again quickly

Still a lot better than last years WS rotation.

I'll take a Carp with a question mark, good Loshe, 90% Wainwright, and Lynn over mediocre year Carp, bad Loshe, Jackson, and last years Garcia.

[philliesfiend55]

It's really getting old that a team that is merely above average in the regular season and barely qualifies for the playoffs finds ways to beat superior teams in the playoffs (2006, 2011, and now the just concluded 2012 series versus Washington).
It will send the World Series into November, but I'm starting to be convinced that a truer test of the opening round (League divisional Series) is that it also become a 7 game series in the future. MLB needs to eliminate the fluke victories that have become common to the opening round in both leagues.

[Bothrops Atrox]

It's really getting old that a team that is merely above average in the regular season and barely qualifies for the playoffs finds ways to beat superior teams in the playoffs (2006, 2011, and now the just concluded 2012 series versus Washington).
It will send the World Series into November, but I'm starting to be convinced that a truer test of the opening round (League divisional Series) is that it also become a 7 game series in the future. MLB needs to eliminate the fluke victories that have become common to the opening round in both leagues.

1. The Cards had an insane amount of regular season injuries all three seasons - more than typical. I know, the Phillies were too, etc. and they have some room to gripe as well.
2. Looking at pure talent on the field, I'd take the Cardinal teams over the 2006 Padres, the 2006 Tigers, the 2011 Brewers, and the 2012 Nats. Probably the 2012 Ginats too if they advance. Maybe the 2006 Mets too, given they had no starting pitching other than an aging Glavine. And of course for being so much worse, the Cards made the playoffs again while the superior Phillies and Brewers didn't even make the playoffs.
3. 88 wins and 90 wins are not "merely above average". With so many factors involved, there is little difference statistically speaking between an 88 win team and a 94 win team. 54% vs. 58% is a coin flip given 162 games. They did have the leagues 2nd best run differential.
4. Keep in mind that from 1985 to 2005, the Cardinals lost eight postseason series...7 of which were by teams with worse records. They lost 3 series to teams with 10+ fewer wins. One with more runs allowed than runs scored. That stunk too, but things like this come full circle.
5. All 3 teams were shock-full of All Stars and multiple at least borderline HOFers. I'd take the consistent of talent over much more random W/L record any day when evaluating a team's greatness. While the Nats and A's and O's had the big W/L records and Cinderella stories, it is the teams with experience and talent who are left, W/L records be damned.

[philliesfiend55]

"Oh , Frank. You're so ABOVE AVERAGE! " - Hot Lips Houlihan (Loretta Swit) embracing Major Frank Burns (Larry Linville) in a MASH television series episode.

The St.Louis Cardinals have become a later version of the 1997 & 2003 Florida Marlins - an ABOVE AVERAGE team, that simply got hot at the right time.

[Bothrops Atrox]

"Oh , Frank. You're so ABOVE AVERAGE! " - Hot Lips Houlihan (Loretta Swit) embracing Major Frank Burns (Larry Linville) in a MASH television series episode.

The St.Louis Cardinals have become a later version of the 1997 & 2003 Florida Marlins - an ABOVE AVERAGE team, that simply got hot at the right time.

Lets say the Cards go to another World Series....what will the narrative be?

Decent/barely above average team blindly finds its way to its 3rd World Series in seven years? Don't think so.

Look at the players that the Cardinals have featured the past 7 years:

Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter, Wainwright, Berkman, Holliday, Beltran, Molina, Furcal, Freese, Mulder, Craig, Motte, etc. If this is all we knew about a team that went to 3 WS in seven years, everybody would say "no s**t - look at those players."

Look at the 2010 Celtics...the 1991 Penguins...2010 Packers...2000 Yankees.. Nobody was surprised when those teams full of great players won (or almost won) championships with mediocre records. These Cardinal teams (who have also been ravaged by injuries each year) are no different.

[dominik]

1. The Cards had an insane amount of regular season injuries all three seasons - more than typical. I know, the Phillies were too, etc. and they have some room to gripe as well.
2. Looking at pure talent on the field, I'd take the Cardinal teams over the 2006 Padres, the 2006 Tigers, the 2011 Brewers, and the 2012 Nats. Probably the 2012 Ginats too if they advance. Maybe the 2006 Mets too, given they had no starting pitching other than an aging Glavine. And of course for being so much worse, the Cards made the playoffs again while the superior Phillies and Brewers didn't even make the playoffs.
3. 88 wins and 90 wins are not "merely above average". With so many factors involved, there is little difference statistically speaking between an 88 win team and a 94 win team. 54% vs. 58% is a coin flip given 162 games. They did have the leagues 2nd best run differential.
4. Keep in mind that from 1985 to 2005, the Cardinals lost eight postseason series...7 of which were by teams with worse records. They lost 3 series to teams with 10+ fewer wins. One with more runs allowed than runs scored. That stunk too, but things like this come full circle.
5. All 3 teams were shock-full of All Stars and multiple at least borderline HOFers. I'd take the consistent of talent over much more random W/L record any day when evaluating a team's greatness. While the Nats and A's and O's had the big W/L records and Cinderella stories, it is the teams with experience and talent who are left, W/L records be damned.

well if a 162 games season is a coinflip and a short series is a coinflip too doesn't that mean the whole game of baseball is a coinflip? what is the best way to find out the best team?

Or is MLB just a big entertainment but of limited value in finding the best team in baseball.

[Bothrops Atrox]

well if a 162 games season is a coinflip and a short series is a coinflip too doesn't that mean the whole game of baseball is a coinflip? what is the best way to find out the best team?

Or is MLB just a big entertainment but of limited value in finding the best team in baseball.

I never said the season (for everybody) is a coinflip. When did I say that? I said 58% vs. 54% is a coinflip. I only said that record is nowhere close to a perfect gauge of talent. Studies from Tom Tango show that a teams true talent in a given season can range from 10 wins from actual wins. Which is why a team like Arizona can go from 95 wins to 82 wins with the same talent. Record only partially captures talent. But the misinformed look at a team with 93 wins vs. a teams with 88 wins and say "it is such an upset if the 88 win team wins". Statistically speaking, there is little difference in 93 or 88 wins. That is the difference from a couple of lucky bounces or blown calls each for both teams. Or one blah player having a fluke good year for one team and one star having a fluke bad year for the other team.

So which is is: the 2006-2012 loaded-with-talent Cardinlas are really a mediocre team who have miraculously found itself in possibly 3 World Series or... 3 possible World Series teams loaded with talent underperformed/got unlucky/injured a lot in the regular season? The former is a popular narrative from many people.

Nobody said anything about the regular season being a coinflip.

For the regular season to be a coinflip, then there would be no correlation between payroll or talent and wins - that is preposterous.

[dominik]

well a short series can go either way even when a .400 team meets a .600 team. the .600 team will win a ot more series but a few times a year the .400 team will win the series too. in that regard 88 vs 93 really don't mean a lot to predict a short series.

but what is the purpose of the baseball season if basically all 10 playoff teams are within a win percentage rage that doesn't allow to distinguish their talent?

[Bothrops Atrox]

well a short series can go either way even when a .400 team meets a .600 team. the .600 team will win a ot more series but a few times a year the .400 team will win the series too. in that regard 88 vs 93 really don't mean a lot to predict a short series.

but what is the purpose of the baseball season if basically all 10 playoff teams are within a win percentage rage that doesn't allow to distinguish their talent?

That is why so many people do not like so many teams in the playoffs. Many do not like playoffs at all. It would be a crazy long season to find "true talent" of every team. And not "all 10 teams" A .630 win teams is likely more talented than a .530 team. Anything within .05 is not very indicative.