2012 Red Sox Season Thread

[Therwil Flyer]

Depends on whether you believe he will be a catcher anytime soon. If you believe he is a 1B/DH his spot is pretty much blocked. In that case I would consider trading him like the yanks did with montero rather than letting him rot in AAA ball.

maybe you could get something good in return from a team that believes in his bat.

If you are confident he can catch I would keep him of course. but the clock for that is ticking too. If it takes much more time it is pretty much confirmed that he is a DH which will lower his value.

I think a realistic scenario for Lavarnway is that he eventually plays the role of backup catcher/occasional 1B/DH/PH. It makes you think about whether they will/should trade Shoppach or even Saltalamacchia. As far as 2013 and beyond, I don't see much of a problem in having Salty/Lavarnway/Ortiz/Gonzalez all on the roster.

I think Sweeney, Shoppach, a couple of RPs and maybe one more OFer will be traded/released. I don't think they will get back a ton for any of those players though.

[Therwil Flyer]

I wasn't posting that so much in return to your post I quoted but more as a general statement. If you read the Globe or talk to casual Sox fans, a lot of them want to get rid of Beckett, Lester, Ells, Crawford etc. not realizing that for most of the players they want to get rid of you won't get fair return.

As far as the starting pitchers go, I wonder if the annual changes of the pitching coach had any effect. I really hope there is a plan to bring Farrell back as a manager when his contract in Toronto is up.

Speier says what I was thinking much clearer and more eloquently than I did: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...-sox-mired-med

There are 61 players in the majors this year with an OPS of .800 or better in at least 250 plate appearances. One of those (Ortiz) is a member of the Red Sox. That’s one fewer than the number of players in that category that the Red Sox traded away this past offseason (Josh Reddick, Jed Lowrie).

There are 57 big league pitchers with a sub-4.00 ERA in at least 80 innings pitched. None are Red Sox.

The problem for the Red Sox this year has not been depth. To the contrary, it is depth that has kept the Red Sox afloat.

The organization has done a remarkable job of identifying fill-ins when regulars went down. Will Middlebrooks proved a revelation before his recent injury, making Kevin Youkilis (at least at the time of the trade that sent him to the White Sox) expendable. Daniel Nava, before a late skid into the All-Star break, delivered startling production in his return to the majors, particularly in terms of his on-base abilities.

Alfredo Aceves, Vicente Padilla, Scott Atchison, Andrew Miller and others all allowed the team to withstand the first-half loss of Andrew Bailey. The team received meaningful contributions from Scott Podsednik and Pedro Ciriaco, not to mention pitchers such as Aaron Cook and Clayton Mortensen. In the absence of those pleasant surprises, the team would be well below .500.

Yes, the team has had a drastic array of injuries. But ultimately, the second most expensive roster in the game should be able to withstand the absence of multiple key contributors.

The Yankees are without CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and Brett Gardner. The Orioles have been without Nick Markakis and Matt Lidstrom for significant stretches. The Rays have been without their best player (Evan Longoria), one of their starters (Jeff Niemann) and their expected closer (Kyle Farnsworth) for much of the year. The Jays have not only been without their closer (Sergio Santos) for most of the season, but also saw a wrecking ball of injuries hit their starting rotation in June, when they lost Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison in the course of one week.

The Sox have certainly faced an extreme rash of injuries. The team has sent 20 players to the DL for a combined 23 DL stints, resulting in 945 games missed. All of those totals exceed the team’s “injury stats” from last year.

Still, those numbers are inflated by the absence of players like John Lackey and Bobby Jenks and Chris Carpenter and Jason Repko and others who were not necessarily expected to contribute. Ultimately, the injuries that the Red Sox have incurred to their projected regulars (Crawford, Ellsbury, Bailey and, to a lesser degree, Pedroia) have not been drastically different from the rest of the division.

hat, in turn, focuses attention on the team’s struggles elsewhere, chiefly on the underperformance of the club’s healthy stars. The American League average pitcher this year has a 4.03 ERA. The Red Sox do not have a single starter who meets that standard.

Opening Day starter Jon Lester, an All-Star the last two years, has a 4.49 ERA that he characterized as representing an “(expletive) first half.” Josh Beckett, an All-Star in 2007, 2009 and 2011, has a 4.43 ERA. Clay Buchholz, an All-Star in 2010, has a 5.53 ERA. Lester has been healthy enough to make all his starts. Beckett has been dinged for a few starts, but ultimately, he’s been deemed fit for 14 first half outings. Buchholz was healthy enough to make 14 starts, until his recent gastrointestinal issue.

Ben can make all the trades he wants, whether they reach the playoffs or not and how they fare should they reach the playoffs, depends on whether the front 3 in the starting rotation can perform as they should or not!

[Mike D.]

I very much expect that Shoppach will be traded this month to clear a spot for Lavarnway.

With Shoppach having a solid season and being signed short term, I could see a team giving up something for him. Won't be a stud prospect, but could be a solid return.

[Dude Paskert]

Speier says what I was thinking much clearer and more eloquently than I did:

Ben can make all the trades he wants, whether they reach the playoffs or not and how they fare should they reach the playoffs, depends on whether the front 3 in the starting rotation can perform as they should or not!

I think the problem is more that the guys who haven't been lost to injury haven't been performing, except for a few. Maybe some of them are hurt without letting on...Pedey played quite a bit with that bad thumb before finally sitting for a bit.

[Boston Boxer]

so, if we are going to sell high and deal guys that will actually return value, then we need to trade Big Papi. Other than him and some of the young guys, there is nobody else on the team worth a damn.

[Therwil Flyer]

I think the problem is more that the guys who haven't been lost to injury haven't been performing, except for a few. Maybe some of them are hurt without letting on...Pedey played quite a bit with that bad thumb before finally sitting for a bit.

Good point.

[maximum jack]

so, if we are going to sell high and deal guys that will actually return value, then we need to trade Big Papi. Other than him and some of the young guys, there is nobody else on the team worth a damn.

Salty maybe? His first half stats probably have him a little over-valued at this point. Nava too. Both guys I'd like to keep. I'd hate to deal Ortiz at this point, mainly because he'd have to stay in the AL.

[Evangelion]

The starting pitching is the major issue with the team. I never blamed injuries as much as other people. You're not going any place when your front two pitchers have either been inconsistent, which would be Beckett, or very mediocre the entire season, which would be Lester. Just being decent and consistent would have done the job for this club since the club's offense isn't much of an issues and has saved the team from being further below .500. While it's struggle, the offense is not an issue. Heck, it wipe away a number of Clay Buchholz horrid starts to begin the season.

Currently, the rotation is made up of the following.

Beckett
Lester
Morales
Doubront
Cook

Buchholz will be returning soon. Doubront regress a bit, but he's done what is expected of him. Morales and Cook have been nice surprises, but they also perform their magic against M's and A's, not the best offensive clubs and clubs that play in a very pitcher friendly park. Clearly, Morales first test came this past week and failed. Beside that, these are your projected 4-5 and honestly they done what I expect and more. It's the front of the rotation which has been a utter disappointment. This team not going any place without Beckett or Lester pitching like front of the line pitchers or, not mention too often, the club going out and trading for a front line starter.

[Mike D.]

Agreed, I saw somewhere that the Sox have a very nasty losing record in the games that Beckett and Lester have started, and if it was even .500, they'd be right in the mix for the playoffs right now.

[quagmire]

Agreed, I saw somewhere that the Sox have a very nasty losing record in the games that Beckett and Lester have started, and if it was even .500, they'd be right in the mix for the playoffs right now.

I don't know if it was the same place, but I saw the stat during ESPN during Sunday nights game. The Red Sox are something like 31-23( or better), but when Lester or Beckett starts they are 11-20 or something like that. Either way the Red Sox are well below .500 when those two start.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

A must listen to for every Red Sox fan. Even if it hurts: Youkilis comparing Boston media and Chicago media and the baseball in general.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?co...65865&c_id=mlb

[dominik]

I think a realistic scenario for Lavarnway is that he eventually plays the role of backup catcher/occasional 1B/DH/PH. It makes you think about whether they will/should trade Shoppach or even Saltalamacchia. As far as 2013 and beyond, I don't see much of a problem in having Salty/Lavarnway/Ortiz/Gonzalez all on the roster.

I think Sweeney, Shoppach, a couple of RPs and maybe one more OFer will be traded/released. I don't think they will get back a ton for any of those players though.

yeah but isn't his value higher than a backup dude?

you could get a player for him of similar quality in a spot you have a need (and the red sox have plenty of such spots). Losing him would not be cool but sometimes in baseball you have to maximize value. if you get a very good deal you should think about it closely but you should of course not throw him away for some stiffs like they did with youk.

[Therwil Flyer]

yeah but isn't his value higher than a backup dude?

you could get a player for him of similar quality in a spot you have a need (and the red sox have plenty of such spots). Losing him would not be cool but sometimes in baseball you have to maximize value. if you get a very good deal you should think about it closely but you should of course not throw him away for some stiffs like they did with youk.

Tp be honest, I don't think so. I haven't read any scouting reports on him lately nor seen him live, but I think at this point it's pretty much a given that he won't be a starting catcher in the majors. I might be totally wrong here, and if the Sox think he can be a starter they should immediately trade Saltalamacchia.

But assuming that most teams see him as a backup catcher/DH/occasional 1B a la Victor Martinez's role with the Tigers, then I think he holds as much or more value to the Red Sox as to any other team (longterm that is, in the short term he is blocked by both Ortiz and Shoppach).

[Therwil Flyer]

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports that Carl Crawford (elbow, wrist, groin) is expected to be activated from the disabled list on July 16.
Crawford will restart his rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket Thursday, as the groin strain he suffered last week evidently was indeed mild. With Jacoby Ellsbury expected back for the first game of the second half, the Red Sox should receive a big boost in their outfield. Crawford, who has batted .292/.452/.417 over eight rehab games thus far, will eventually need Tommy John surgery on his elbow, but he'll try to play through it for the rest of the season.

Can someone please explain to me what's the point of postponing TJ surgery? Are they expecting that he will be better playing trough his injury than any of the many options they have? Not to mention, do they think it's a good idea to trade/release away the surplus of OFers so that they have to run Lillibridge out there, when Crawford is back on the DL in a few weeks? I don't get it...

[Therwil Flyer]

please delete

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Can someone please explain to me what's the point of postponing TJ surgery? Are they expecting that he will be better playing trough his injury than any of the many options they have? Not to mention, do they think it's a good idea to trade/release away the surplus of OFers so that they have to run Lillibridge out there, when Crawford is back on the DL in a few weeks? I don't get it...

Me neither. Probably they went this way in spring and want to push it through now. But as Cherington said a few weeks ago, there were a number of positional players, like Pujols and others, that had the exact same injury and didnt need surgery at all. I have no idea if it is also ok for an outfielder, but the Red Sox do not want Crawford to have surgery.

The Crawford comment, to me, shows again, that a player doesnt agree with the way the Red Sox are handling injuries. I dont know which side I should be, but I get the feeling, that Crawford is a little bit weak, if you look at other players also not having surgery for this injury.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

The starting rotation is the problem, that the Red Sox are playing .500-ball. Right?

Lester xFIP career: 3.70
Lester xFIP 2011: 3.62
Lester xFIP 2012: 3.60

His K/9 is down, yes, and his LOB-rate is too.

Beckett xFIP career: 3.62
Beckett xFIP 2011: 3.58
Beckett xFIP 2012: 3.98

Same thing here, K-rate down, LOB too.

Buchholz has not been good. But he has not a long track record, is injury prone. So it would be foolish to expect 200 innings of sub-4-ERA-ball. We still do not know who Clay Buchholz is at the MLB-level.

Still the stats show, that it hasnt been that bad. The media makes it catastrophic and still talks about beers and chicken. After two weeks in Boston, I can say, that I hate the Boston media. The Red Sox should close the clubhouse and do fixed media times. Otherwise player will flee the town, because they cannot bear the drama anymore.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Speier says what I was thinking much clearer and more eloquently than I did: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...-sox-mired-med
The problem for the Red Sox this year has not been depth. To the contrary, it is depth that has kept the Red Sox afloat.

The organization has done a remarkable job of identifying fill-ins when regulars went down. Will Middlebrooks proved a revelation before his recent injury, making Kevin Youkilis (at least at the time of the trade that sent him to the White Sox) expendable. Daniel Nava, before a late skid into the All-Star break, delivered startling production in his return to the majors, particularly in terms of his on-base abilities.

Alfredo Aceves, Vicente Padilla, Scott Atchison, Andrew Miller and others all allowed the team to withstand the first-half loss of Andrew Bailey. The team received meaningful contributions from Scott Podsednik and Pedro Ciriaco, not to mention pitchers such as Aaron Cook and Clayton Mortensen. In the absence of those pleasant surprises, the team would be well below .500.

That is right. But the positives are overshadowed by a Boston media, which overblows everything. I feel, that it has been even worse than pre-2011. I think this will be a problem the FO has to fix.

The good job of the FO to acquire depth has helped Pawtucket too. Tazawa and Alex Wilson should be at the MLB level right now. I'm sure they will come September. Clayton Mortensen is right now. By the way, that was probably one of the good trades by Cherington. He saved 6-7 milions and got Mortensen. Aviles and Scutaro have about the same, bad OPS.

[dominik]

The starting rotation is the problem, that the Red Sox are playing .500-ball. Right?

Lester xFIP career: 3.70
Lester xFIP 2011: 3.62
Lester xFIP 2012: 3.60

His K/9 is down, yes, and his LOB-rate is too.

Beckett xFIP career: 3.62
Beckett xFIP 2011: 3.58
Beckett xFIP 2012: 3.98

Same thing here, K-rate down, LOB too.

Buchholz has not been good. But he has not a long track record, is injury prone. So it would be foolish to expect 200 innings of sub-4-ERA-ball. We still do not know who Clay Buchholz is at the MLB-level.

Still the stats show, that it hasnt been that bad. The media makes it catastrophic and still talks about beers and chicken. After two weeks in Boston, I can say, that I hate the Boston media. The Red Sox should close the clubhouse and do fixed media times. Otherwise player will flee the town, because they cannot bear the drama anymore.

well lesters ERA is 4.49. His xFIP suggests that he was a little unlucky but mostly this was not a good season by him.

[Therwil Flyer]

well lesters ERA is 4.49. His xFIP suggests that he was a little unlucky but mostly this was not a good season by him.

Lester's problems this season stem from shaky command. If he can work out his command issues, he should be just as good as he was the last couple of years.

[Boston Boxer]

Can someone please explain to me what's the point of postponing TJ surgery? Are they expecting that he will be better playing trough his injury than any of the many options they have? Not to mention, do they think it's a good idea to trade/release away the surplus of OFers so that they have to run Lillibridge out there, when Crawford is back on the DL in a few weeks? I don't get it...

i dont understand this either. He should have had the surgery already and just write this year off. This has been a bad investment that is getting worse by the day. Teams are going to run on him all day and when he finally unleashes one from LF his arm is going to fall off. The Sox medical staff has been suspect for a decade now, so i dont trust them one bit

...and while i am at it, do the Sox really think Crawford will be an upgrade to Nava/Ross? I doubt it

[SwissRedSoxFan]

i dont understand this either. He should have had the surgery already and just write this year off. This has been a bad investment that is getting worse by the day. Teams are going to run on him all day and when he finally unleashes one from LF his arm is going to fall off. The Sox medical staff has been suspect for a decade now, so i dont trust them one bit

...and while i am at it, do the Sox really think Crawford will be an upgrade to Nava/Ross? I doubt it

Like I said, position players usually do not need surgery for such an injury. I assume it is the same for outfielders.

[Therwil Flyer]

Like I said, position players usually do not need surgery for such an injury. I assume it is the same for outfielders.

Shin Soo Choo and Xavier Nady are about the only position players I know who underwent TJ surgery. I assume there are more, but you just don't here as much about a position players undergoing TJ surgery as about pitchers. Still, if he'd undergo the procedure now and need about 6 months to recover, he should be ready for spring training and a new season next year. If he plays through it he will likely be affected and sooner or later be back on the DL. If he then undergoes surgery later in the year and misses the start of next season...isn't that the same thing they have done with Kalish (except it was a different surgery for Kalish)? Oh well...

[dominik]

I think a realistic scenario for Lavarnway is that he eventually plays the role of backup catcher/occasional 1B/DH/PH. It makes you think about whether they will/should trade Shoppach or even Saltalamacchia. As far as 2013 and beyond, I don't see much of a problem in having Salty/Lavarnway/Ortiz/Gonzalez all on the roster.

I think Sweeney, Shoppach, a couple of RPs and maybe one more OFer will be traded/released. I don't think they will get back a ton for any of those players though.

yeah maybe you are right. If he had the potential to be a solid defensive catcher he would probably be closer to this goal now. So maybe he really is such a type of player.

Of course still the problem remains that boston already has a full time DH and 1B man. and you really don't need a backup DH/1B often exept for injury since these positions are not very taxing and require much rest like other positions.

that means that he does not have the same value for boston like Vmart had for detroit since they didn't really have a great hitting DH so that vmart could split DH with a 4th OFer.

I could see lavarnway being platooned against lefties with ortiz maybe if ortiz starts to struggle against lefties again.

[Therwil Flyer]

yeah maybe you are right. If he had the potential to be a solid defensive catcher he would probably be closer to this goal now. So maybe he really is such a type of player.

Of course still the problem remains that boston already has a full time DH and 1B man. and you really don't need a backup DH/1B often exept for injury since these positions are not very taxing and require much rest like other positions.

that means that he does not have the same value for boston like Vmart had for detroit since they didn't really have a great hitting DH so that vmart could split DH with a 4th OFer.

I could see lavarnway being platooned against lefties with ortiz maybe if ortiz starts to struggle against lefties again.

I totally agree with you. The question is, how long will Ortiz be here and how long will he be productive. Are we comfortable with a 37 year old DH and virtually no backup for him (Gomez? Lars?). And then of course what would you get back for Lavarnway?