2012 Red Sox Season Thread

[Mike D.]

Aaron Cook is as good, probably better than Lannan.

Some might debate that...but the point is valid in that the Sox already have Cook, he came cheap, and they wouldn't have to trade any prospects to get him.

[scaffolds]

I mostly agree, a very promising first start for Bard. Most certainly a lot better than the final pitching line would suggest (A .471 babip will do that to you).

The good:
- He worked the strike zone well, keeping the pitches out of the middle of the zone (See here).
- He got 11 GB and only 2 FB and 1 LD!
- He got 18 swing-and-misses!

The not so good:
- He needed 96 pitches to get through 6IP.
- He relies too much on the slider (35 sliders thrown).
- Significantly declining velocity over time (See here)


On the plus side, the declining velocity might become less of an issue over time as he "finalizes" the transition from reliever to starter (although it might not be this year), and the fact that at this point he basically still is a two pitch-pitcher might get better when he starts to trust his changeup more.

Bard was OK, acceptable as he said last night with better help from his infield (as i have said before the left side of their infield will cost the Sox some games this season) will had better results, a lot better than Beckett or Buchholz did in their first start, but far from being a great start.

[scaffolds]

The Red Sox have gone to the ninth inning having scored 1 run or less in 5 of the six games that they have played. Another wasted good Lester pitching performance

Toronto showed in this series that their pitching is at least as good as the Red Sox's staff.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Bard was OK, acceptable as he said last night with better help from his infield (as i have said before the left side of their infield will cost the Sox some games this season) will had better results, a lot better than Beckett or Buchholz did in their first start, but far from being a great start.

It had all the ingredients of a great start, except for luck. And that Bard cannot control. He has to mix in his changeup, which by the way looked great too. I'm really hopeful that he will be a great starter, if he can duplicate his performance from yesterday, plus induce some changeups.

[Boston Boxer]

if we dont pick up the pace we could be burried this weekend into next week...tough schedule coming up with TB, Tex, and NYY. ugh

[Mike D.]

First the bullpen had everyone worried, then the rotation, now the offense! Nice...who'd have thunk that a week in Bobby Valentine would be the ONE thing NOT creating everyone to get up in arms?

[Zoltan]

First the bullpen had everyone worried, then the rotation, now the offense! Nice...who'd have thunk that a week in Bobby Valentine would be the ONE thing NOT creating everyone to get up in arms?

I hate to say it but Bobby V is the last of my worries right now with this team. Is anybody else concerned about Kevin Youkilis? Hes like 2 for 23 i believe, and had a poor spring to boot.

[Blackout]

Youk will be fine I'm sure.

[Dogdaze]

I mostly agree, a very promising first start for Bard. Most certainly a lot better than the final pitching line would suggest (A .471 babip will do that to you).

The good:
- He worked the strike zone well, keeping the pitches out of the middle of the zone (See here).
- He got 11 GB and only 2 FB and 1 LD!
- He got 18 swing-and-misses!

The not so good:
- He needed 96 pitches to get through 6IP.
- He relies too much on the slider (35 sliders thrown).
- Significantly declining velocity over time (See here)


On the plus side, the declining velocity might become less of an issue over time as he "finalizes" the transition from reliever to starter (although it might not be this year), and the fact that at this point he basically still is a two pitch-pitcher might get better when he starts to trust his changeup more.

Excellent analysis.

Though I stand by my statement that he would hold more value as a closer at this time for this year, I think that if the Sox keep him as a starter he'll probably improve. But no matter where he plays I'll be rooting for him to succeed.

[Dogdaze]

Youk will be fine I'm sure.

I agree, it's still early, I think he'll start hitting soon.

[dominik]

I agree, it's still early, I think he'll start hitting soon.

he seems to be on decline though. last season was by far his worst in several years. he won't continue to hit that bad but his best days might be gone. or did he have some injuries last year?

[Mike D.]

he seems to be on decline though. last season was by far his worst in several years. he won't continue to hit that bad but his best days might be gone. or did he have some injuries last year?

He's had injuries the last couple of years...so, it could be "just injuries" or it could be that the injuries are a sign of the decline. It's early...we'll know a lot more when we're all grilling burgers and dogs for the 4th of July.

[Blue387]

He's had injuries the last couple of years...so, it could be "just injuries" or it could be that the injuries are a sign of the decline. It's early...we'll know a lot more when we're all grilling burgers and dogs for the 4th of July.

Youkilis is currently 33 years old and I think batters at that age start losing their bat speed and ability to generate power to hit a ball out of the infield. I'm seeing this right now with Jason Bay on the Mets, who is the same age as Kevin Youkilis. I think both men will eventually start hitting once the weather gets warmer, hopefully.

[scaffolds]

The Red Sox in all 3 games against the Blue jays went to the 9th inning having scored only 1 run. The over rated Red Sox offense is getting out homered by Marlins second baseman Omar Infante (among others) 3-2. Scouts who saw the Red Sox in Spring training and have seen them in the first week of the regular season are saying that the Red Sox are going to be the surprise team of 2012, but not the surprise that the Red Sox nation are waiting for.

[Therwil Flyer]

The Red Sox in all 3 games against the Blue jays went to the 9th inning having scored only 1 run. The over rated Red Sox offense is getting out homered by Marlins second baseman Omar Infante (among others) 3-2. Scouts who saw the Red Sox in Spring training and have seen them in the first week of the regular season are saying that the Red Sox are going to be the surprise team of 2012, but not the surprise that the Red Sox nation are waiting for.

Really scaff, we're gonna judge the team after 6 games? And we use Omar Infante, who will likely not hit more than 5 hr's for the rest of the season, as a comparison?

Come on, I am as pissed as anybody about the lousy start to the season (once again), but how is the Red Sox offense overrated and what kind of scout judges a team (and its offense) after a sample of 6 games?

[scaffolds]

Really scaff, we're gonna judge the team after 6 games? And we use Omar Infante, who will likely not hit more than 5 hr's for the rest of the season, as a comparison?

Come on, I am as pissed as anybody about the lousy start to the season (once again), but how is the Red Sox offense overrated and what kind of scout judges a team (and its offense) after a sample of 6 games?

If you read my post i said in Spring training (and yes you could tell in Spring training) and the first week of the season, but it has been the life less way that they have played after the way they played in September, the many questions that this team has. As far the offense besides Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ellsbury (who had a career year in 2011) and perhaps Crawford and Ortiz, who else is there?

Comparing non power hitters (like Infante) to the Red Sox indicates how bad the Red Sox has hit in the first week of the season not how many HR will Infante hit.

[Therwil Flyer]

If you read my post i said in Spring training (and yes you could tell in Spring training) and the first week of the season, but it has been the life less way that they have played after the way they played in September, the many questions that this team has. As far the offense besides Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ellsbury (who had a career year in 2011) and perhaps Crawford and Ortiz, who else is there?

Comparing non power hitters (like Infante) to the Red Sox indicates how bad the Red Sox has hit in the first week of the season not how many HR will Infante hit.

Let me respond to your question by another question. Assuming Gonzalez and Pedroia are about as productive as last year, and Ellsburry, Ortiz and Youkilis regress slightly but not significantly, do you think that a) Sweeney can outproduce Drew's .222 .315 .302 in RF last year and b) Crawford can improve on his .255 .289 .405 slash line from last year and c) Aviles can produce around his career average of .287 .317 .417? If so, then this offense should be just as good as last year's. (a year in which the Red Sox finished 2nd in BA and 1st in OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+ in all of mlb).

Yes, the Red Sox have not hit well in the past 6 games. They will finish at or near the top in offense over the full 2012 season. I promise.

People need to stop looking at HR numbers, thinking just because not everyone from 1 to 9 will hit 35 bombs, the Red Sox will not be a good team offensively (And I don't mean just Scaff, I mean people in general). Who has a better offense than we do, honestly? Look at the teams out there - their lineup 1 to 9 - and convince me who's better (backing up your argument with appropriate stats). If someone finds more than three teams, I'll send him or her a six pack of finest Swiss beer!

[Mike D.]

It's worth noting that 1/2 of the Sox games to date were played in Comercia (National) Park...not exactly a place conducive to hitting HR (don't tell Josh Beckett).

[scaffolds]

Let me respond to your question by another question. Assuming Gonzalez and Pedroia are about as productive as last year, and Ellsburry, Ortiz and Youkilis regress slightly but not significantly, do you think that a) Sweeney can outproduce Drew's .222 .315 .302 in RF last year and b) Crawford can improve on his .255 .289 .405 slash line from last year and c) Aviles can produce around his career average of .287 .317 .417? If so, then this offense should be just as good as last year's. (a year in which the Red Sox finished 2nd in BA and 1st in OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+ in all of mlb).

Yes, the Red Sox have not hit well in the past 6 games. They will finish at or near the top in offense over the full 2012 season. I promise.

People need to stop looking at HR numbers, thinking just because not everyone from 1 to 9 will hit 35 bombs, the Red Sox will not be a good team offensively (And I don't mean just Scaff, I mean people in general). Who has a better offense than we do, honestly? Look at the teams out there - their lineup 1 to 9 - and convince me who's better (backing up your argument with appropriate stats). If someone finds more than three teams, I'll send him or her a six pack of finest Swiss beer!

First of all I rather post of how good the Red Sox are doing than that they are doing horrible and they won't do as good as some expect but, i can't be a homer and ignore what is going on. I can't be as optimistic as you and expect a lot from Youkilis and Sweeeney. While i don't expect the Red Sox to make the playoff. I expect the Red Sox to have a better roster at the end of the season with Will Middlebrook at third base, Jose Iglesias at short stop,Ryan Lavernway catching, Alex Wilson in the pen and Ryan Kalish in RF and of course Crawford and Youkilis, Sweeeney and Schopach not longer in the team.

[scaffolds]

About a better line up than the Red Sox, I take the Rangers, Yankees (as much as i hate admit it) Tigers (even without Victor Martinez) in that order over the Red Sox with Toronto's on the outside.

[scaffolds]

Beckett, one of the Red Sox question marks (among many) with a fastball at 91 topping out at 92 like he did at Detroit (got hit hard) in the first inning, a far cry from 96-97 that he has done before

[Therwil Flyer]

About a better line up than the Red Sox, I take the Rangers, Yankees (as much as i hate admit it) Tigers (even without Victor Martinez) in that order over the Red Sox with Toronto's on the outside.

All good offenses, no doubt. But are they significantly better than the Red Sox lineup?

Yankees:
I hate to admit it, but yes. They have a terrific offense 1 through 9. They might be better offensively.

Rangers:
I'd argue that they are very similar. The Rangers came in at 1st in BA, 5th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 2nd in wOBA and 5th in wRC+ last year.
The bottom of their lineup (6 through 9) is probably slightly better than the Red Sox, but I'd take our 1 to 6 over theirs.

Tigers:
The Tigers have the best 3-4 bunch in baseball no doubt. But the rest of the lineup isn't that impressive. I'd take the Sox' offense over the Tigers'.

We'll see at the end of the season, but as a team I'd say the Red Sox will finish among the top three in offense.

[Therwil Flyer]

First of all I rather post of how good the Red Sox are doing than that they are doing horrible and they won't do as good as some expect but, i can't be a homer and ignore what is going on. I can't be as optimistic as you and expect a lot from Youkilis and Sweeeney. While i don't expect the Red Sox to make the playoff. I expect the Red Sox to have a better roster at the end of the season with Will Middlebrook at third base, Jose Iglesias at short stop,Ryan Lavernway catching, Alex Wilson in the pen and Ryan Kalish in RF and of course Crawford and Youkilis, Sweeeney and Schopach not longer in the team.

Maybe Youkilis will regress more than I think, that's fair enough. But do you really think Sweeney can't put up a better slash line than .222 .315 .302? And how won't Crawford be the team at the end of the season?

[Mike D.]

Beckett, one of the Red Sox question marks (among many) with a fastball at 91 topping out at 92 like he did at Detroit (got hit hard) in the first inning, a far cry from 96-97 that he has done before

Whatever he's throwing, it's working. He's pitching very well and very efficiently!

[Therwil Flyer]

Whatever he's throwing, it's working. He's pitching very well and very efficiently!

Fastball and changeup, very few curveballs. Should we be worried about him not throwing curveballs (as it might be a sign that his thumb hurts more than he is willing to admit)?