Jeff Bagwell - Underrated Historically?

[fenrir]

Seems to me that this guy doesn't get a lot of credit. He hit for a good average, had excellent power, got on base a lot, could steal some bases, and was also a very good defender. I personally think he's among the five greatest first basemen ever, and certainly among the 50 greatest players ever. What does everyone else think?

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Too many issues. I just find it hard to believe he wasnt juicing. I wish there was a way I could know for sure. I rank him in top 10 but if I knew for sure he didnt use, I would have him in my top 5.

[redban]

From what I remember, he was overshadowed by other first baseman, Mark McGwire especially. In the 1990s, everyone saw McGwire as the best 1B by far.

There were also guys like Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, etc

Basically, 1B was a loaded position.

For evidence, you could also look at how many All-Star Games fans voted Bagwell in to. 1996 is the only one he started. Even in some of his monster seasons (2000) he didn't make the team because there were other guys who had better stats.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

Hank Greenberg once had 100 RBI at the All Star break and did not make the AS team, seems a couple guys named Gehrig and Foxx were more deserving

From what I remember, he was overshadowed by other first baseman, Mark McGwire especially. In the 1990s, everyone saw McGwire as the best 1B by far.

There were also guys like Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, etc

Basically, 1B was a loaded position.

For evidence, you could also look at how many All-Star Games fans voted Bagwell in to. 1996 is the only one he started. Even in some of his monster seasons (2000) he didn't make the team because there were other guys who had better stats.

[csh19792001]

Too many issues. I just find it hard to believe he wasnt juicing. I wish there was a way I could know for sure. I rank him in top 10 but if I knew for sure he didnt use, I would have him in my top 5.

I talked to two ex Big Leaguers (one played mainly in the minors from 91'-95', the other with the Rays mainly in the last decade). Both said it seemed that the majority of players were juicing in the 90's.

More importantly, the guy from the Rays organization said players pay informants to be tipped off when the "randomized" testing is going to be conducted, and they pay well.

He said BJ Upton had his OWN coffee pot with a green top that he was very possessive about. Right out there in the open, next to the other coffee pots. You can probably guess what the "green" signified. Openly mocking the drug policy. This guy was on a MLB roster when the testing that produced the Mitchell Report testing was conducted. He laughed that on 10% of guys tested positive. "It should've been about 70 percent, man!!!"

He said the Mitchell List guys were almost exclusively the dumb/greedy ones. (ahem, Bonds, Manny).

[GiambiJuice]

From what I remember, he was overshadowed by other first baseman, Mark McGwire especially. In the 1990s, everyone saw McGwire as the best 1B by far.

There were also guys like Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, etc

Basically, 1B was a loaded position.

For evidence, you could also look at how many All-Star Games fans voted Bagwell in to. 1996 is the only one he started. Even in some of his monster seasons (2000) he didn't make the team because there were other guys who had better stats.

if any first baseman overshadowed Bagwell in the 90's it was Frank Thomas who was a better hitter not not as good an overall player.

[fenrir]

From what I remember, he was overshadowed by other first baseman, Mark McGwire especially. In the 1990s, everyone saw McGwire as the best 1B by far.

There were also guys like Carlos Delgado, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, etc

Basically, 1B was a loaded position.

For evidence, you could also look at how many All-Star Games fans voted Bagwell in to. 1996 is the only one he started. Even in some of his monster seasons (2000) he didn't make the team because there were other guys who had better stats.

The fact that he was overshadowed was extremely unfair. He was easily superior to all those players you mentioned, which is why I stated in the OP that I think he's generally underrated.

I honestly don't see how he's not a top five 1B of all-time, unless you believe he juiced.

[fenrir]

During the 1990's Bagwell was consistently one of the best hitters in baseball. Only Thomas, Bonds, and Piazza were better than him, IMO.

[The Dude]

Easily underrated.

1. Played in the steroid era.
2. Played at a time when 1B was as packed with good players as it may have ever been.
3. Played for the Astros. Granted, they had a stretch of good seasons while he was there, but still not a premier name team.
4. Had his best season cut short by the strike. 39 HR/104 R/116 RBI/213 OPS+ in 110 games.


He is on the short list of 5-tool 1B.

[Jackaroo Dave]

I talked to two ex Big Leaguers (one played mainly in the minors from 91'-95', the other with the Rays mainly in the last decade). Both said it seemed that the majority of players were juicing in the 90's.

More importantly, the guy from the Rays organization said players pay informants to be tipped off when the "randomized" testing is going to be conducted, and they pay well.

He said BJ Upton had his OWN coffee pot with a green top that he was very possessive about. Right out there in the open, next to the other coffee pots. You can probably guess what the "green" signified. Openly mocking the drug policy. This guy was on a MLB roster when the testing that produced the Mitchell Report testing was conducted. He laughed that on 10% of guys tested positive. "It should've been about 70 percent, man!!!"

He said the Mitchell List guys were almost exclusively the dumb/greedy ones. (ahem, Bonds, Manny).

Manny wasn't on the Mitchell List.

[fenrir]

4. Had his best season cut short by the strike. 39 HR/104 R/116 RBI/213 OPS+ in 110 games.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he had a season ending injury anyway. Regardless, he definitely had a historic season in 1994. So did Frank Thomas.

[Buzzaldrin]

Hank Greenberg once had 100 RBI at the All Star break and did not make the AS team, seems a couple guys named Gehrig and Foxx were more deserving

He still won the MVP at least. Oddly enough- Foxx played the 1935 All-Star game at third base.

That was a weird All-star game, though. The NL had Dizzy Dean, Carl Hubbell, and Paul Derringer on the roster, with Hubbell and Dean at the peak of their careers, but they started Bill Walker, who was, at the time, 6-2 3.56, compared with Dean's 12-6 2.89.

[sgb]

I don't think you should hold it against Bagwell for playing in an era of other great first basemen and I'm never sure how to take the steroid or not steroid player era into account, but ... just looking at Bagwell straight on, without discounting those two things, I think he is underrated. I don't think he was Top 5 of all-time, but I'd say he was about #9 overall in 1B rankings, behind Frank Thomas for sure in his era, but ahead of McGwire. More RBI's, better AVE., etc. And I do think he belongs in the Hall of Fame, unless evidence of the PED question is stronger. His stats would have to be looked at in a different light then. What light, who knows?

[Freakshow]

1990's First basemen

Most WAR, inactive players debuting 1985-94 with 650+ G at 1B

Rk             Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield  HR  RBI    PA From   To   BA  OBP  SLG
1        Jeff Bagwell    79.9  149     34 449 1529  9431 1991 2005 .297 .408 .540
2        Frank Thomas    75.9  156    -67 521 1704 10075 1990 2008 .301 .419 .555
3     Rafael Palmeiro    66.0  132     42 569 1835 12046 1986 2005 .288 .371 .515
4        Mark McGwire    63.1  162    -29 583 1414  7660 1986 2001 .263 .394 .588
5          Will Clark    57.6  137      0 284 1205  8283 1986 2000 .303 .384 .497
6         John Olerud    56.8  128     96 255 1230  9063 1989 2005 .295 .398 .465
7        Fred McGriff    50.5  134    -33 493 1550 10174 1986 2004 .284 .377 .509
8          Mark Grace    47.1  119     77 173 1146  9290 1988 2003 .303 .383 .442
9      Carlos Delgado    44.2  138    -43 473 1512  8657 1993 2009 .280 .383 .546
10       Wally Joyner    34.2  117     54 204 1106  8115 1986 2001 .289 .362 .440
11        Ryan Klesko    26.7  128    -70 278  987  6523 1992 2007 .279 .370 .500
12   Andres Galarraga    26.7  118    -27 399 1425  8916 1985 2004 .288 .347 .499
13          John Kruk    26.1  133     -9 100  592  4603 1986 1995 .300 .397 .446
14          Mo Vaughn    25.8  132    -41 328 1064  6410 1991 2003 .293 .383 .523
15      Tino Martinez    25.7  112     57 339 1271  8044 1990 2005 .271 .344 .471
16        Jeff Conine    22.3  107     32 214 1071  7782 1990 2007 .285 .347 .443
17      Cecil Fielder    15.3  118    -27 319 1008  5939 1985 1998 .255 .345 .482
18         Hal Morris    10.8  111      4  76  513  4443 1988 2000 .304 .361 .433
19          J.T. Snow    10.0  105    -30 189  877  6553 1992 2008 .268 .357 .427
20        Eric Karros     9.0  107    -10 284 1027  7100 1991 2004 .268 .325 .454

[redban]

^ See, WAR factors in defense and baserunning.

When it comes to 1B, offense is what people look at. And if you look at the OPS+, Slugging %, and HR, McGwire is far and away the best.

That's why McGwire was considered the best 1B at the time. Very few people called Bagwell better than McGwire in the 1990s. It was more recently, after the steroid hate came, that it changed.

[Freakshow]

Here's one way to look at "best hitter" of the 90's. Here are players with multiple years of 50+ WAR Runs Batting, with at least one of those years in 1990-2000:

                    Yrs From   To   Age
Barry Bonds          12 1990 2004 25-39
Frank Thomas          8 1991 2000 23-32
Mark McGwire          7 1987 1999 23-35
Jeff Bagwell          6 1994 2000 26-32
Alex Rodriguez        5 1996 2007 20-31
Edgar Martinez        5 1995 2001 32-38
Jason Giambi          4 1999 2002 28-31
Gary Sheffield        4 1996 2003 27-34
Albert Belle          4 1994 1998 27-31
Todd Helton           3 2000 2004 26-30
Manny Ramirez         3 1999 2002 27-30
Chipper Jones         3 1999 2007 27-35
Sammy Sosa            3 1998 2001 29-32
Jim Thome             3 1996 2002 25-31
Brian Giles           2 2000 2002 29-31
Carlos Delgado        2 2000 2003 28-31
Mike Piazza           2 1996 1997 27-28
John Olerud           2 1993 1998 24-29
Ken Griffey           2 1993 1997 23-27
Jose Canseco          2 1988 1991 23-26
Paul Molitor          2 1987 1991 30-34

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Mark McGwire was not looked upon as the "best first baseman of the 1990's" until after the fact. From 1990-95 did anyone consider McGwire the best first baseman in baseball?

[BigRon]

Bagwell did more things well than most outstanding first basemen- hit for average, hit for power, take walks, run well, play good defense, do everything consistently, do it for more than a decade. It's clear to me that Gehrig and Foxx are 1 and 2. Pujols has been moving up fast and MAY be number 3 now. But, if you give Mize some war credit, he and Pujols vie for the number 3 spot until Pujols adds a bit more on. I see Bagwell next in line, which would make him number 5. Admittedly, the competition is fierce, and McCovey, Killebrew, McGwire, Greenberg (with war credit), Murray are close behind. But each of these guys had SOME issue- consistency, defense, ability to stay in the lineup, etc. That's why I have Bagwell in front of them.

[fenrir]

1990's First basemen

Most WAR, inactive players debuting 1985-94 with 650+ G at 1B

Rk             Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield  HR  RBI    PA From   To   BA  OBP  SLG
1        Jeff Bagwell    79.9  149     34 449 1529  9431 1991 2005 .297 .408 .540
2        Frank Thomas    75.9  156    -67 521 1704 10075 1990 2008 .301 .419 .555
3     Rafael Palmeiro    66.0  132     42 569 1835 12046 1986 2005 .288 .371 .515
4        Mark McGwire    63.1  162    -29 583 1414  7660 1986 2001 .263 .394 .588
5          Will Clark    57.6  137      0 284 1205  8283 1986 2000 .303 .384 .497
6         John Olerud    56.8  128     96 255 1230  9063 1989 2005 .295 .398 .465
7        Fred McGriff    50.5  134    -33 493 1550 10174 1986 2004 .284 .377 .509
8          Mark Grace    47.1  119     77 173 1146  9290 1988 2003 .303 .383 .442
9      Carlos Delgado    44.2  138    -43 473 1512  8657 1993 2009 .280 .383 .546
10       Wally Joyner    34.2  117     54 204 1106  8115 1986 2001 .289 .362 .440
11        Ryan Klesko    26.7  128    -70 278  987  6523 1992 2007 .279 .370 .500
12   Andres Galarraga    26.7  118    -27 399 1425  8916 1985 2004 .288 .347 .499
13          John Kruk    26.1  133     -9 100  592  4603 1986 1995 .300 .397 .446
14          Mo Vaughn    25.8  132    -41 328 1064  6410 1991 2003 .293 .383 .523
15      Tino Martinez    25.7  112     57 339 1271  8044 1990 2005 .271 .344 .471
16        Jeff Conine    22.3  107     32 214 1071  7782 1990 2007 .285 .347 .443
17      Cecil Fielder    15.3  118    -27 319 1008  5939 1985 1998 .255 .345 .482
18         Hal Morris    10.8  111      4  76  513  4443 1988 2000 .304 .361 .433
19          J.T. Snow    10.0  105    -30 189  877  6553 1992 2008 .268 .357 .427
20        Eric Karros     9.0  107    -10 284 1027  7100 1991 2004 .268 .325 .454

Where does Bagwell rank all-time in career WAR among 1B

[Freakshow]

Where does Bagwell rank all-time in career WAR among 1B

First, realize that 79.9 WAR is a huge number, #57 all-time, between Nolan Ryan and Rod Carew. The 1B rank like this:

Rank WAR
#16 118.4 Lou Gehrig
#27 99.3 Cap Anson
#30 95.2 Jimmie Foxx
#42 88.7 Albert Pujols
#45 87.2 Roger Connor
#52 81.7 Dan Brouthers
#57 79.9 Jeff Bagwell
#64 75.9 Frank Thomas
#78 71.4 Jim Thome
#82 70.2 Johnny Mize

Most MVP-type seasons:
Players with most seasons 70+ G at 1B and 6.5+ WAR

Rk                 Yrs From   To   Age
1       Lou Gehrig  12 1926 1937 23-34
2      Jimmie Foxx   8 1929 1939 21-31
3    Albert Pujols   7 2004 2010 24-30
4      Johnny Mize   6 1937 1948 24-35
5     Roger Connor   6 1885 1892 27-34
6     Jeff Bagwell   5 1994 1999 26-31
7   Hank Greenberg   5 1934 1946 23-35
8    Dan Brouthers   5 1886 1892 28-34

Most "all-star" seasons:
Players with most seasons 70+ G at 1B and 4.5+ WAR

Rk                Yrs From   To   Age
1      Lou Gehrig  12 1926 1937 23-34
2    Jeff Bagwell  11 1991 2001 23-33
3     Johnny Mize  10 1936 1948 23-35
4     Jimmie Foxx  10 1929 1940 21-32
5       Cap Anson  10 1880 1890 28-38
6    Mark McGwire   9 1987 2000 23-36
7    Roger Connor   9 1885 1893 27-35
8   Dan Brouthers   9 1882 1892 24-34

[BigRon]

Per Freakshow's list, Bagwell is 7th in career WAR among 1Bers, 4th among 60' players. WAR totals certainly aren't a perfect measure of who's best, but they are illustrative, and pretty consistent with my earlier rankings. Give Mize 15-18 WAR for his missed WW2 seasons (less than his typical rates at that time) and he's neck and neck with Pujols.

[sgb]

Where is Eddie Murray on the list? I think of him as being above Bagwell, if only slightly.

[brett]

^ See, WAR factors in defense and baserunning.

When it comes to 1B, offense is what people look at. And if you look at the OPS+, Slugging %, and HR, McGwire is far and away the best.

That's why McGwire was considered the best 1B at the time. Very few people called Bagwell better than McGwire in the 1990s. It was more recently, after the steroid hate came, that it changed.

I can't agree. Bagwell was considered baseball's best player in 1994. McGwire was washed up in '93 and '94, and in '95 and '96 was seen as a unique slugger who would only play 100-120 games a year. In '97 he kind of emerged and '98 and '99 he had the 70 and 66 season. That's really it-3 healthy full seasons.

Bagwell should have been right near the top of 6-7 MVP races. He was underrated at the time. In the 5 years '96-2000 he averaged .304/.436/.586 and 39 doubles 39 home runs 125 RBI 128 runs a season and even 22 steals. He averaged 158 games a season for those 5 years.

[Freakshow]

Where is Eddie Murray on the list? I think of him as being above Bagwell, if only slightly.

He's next. Continuing with the second ten in WAR at 1B:

#102 66.7 Eddie Murray
#109 66.0 Rafael Palmeiro
#115 65.1 Willie McCovey
#131 63.1 Mark McGwire
#143 61.2 Dick Allen
#144 61.1 Harmon Killebrew
#145 61.0 Keith Hernandez
#146 60.9 Jake Beckley
#154 59.9 Todd Helton
#172 57.6 Will Clark

[The Dude]

What i'd like to know is how many seasons there are by a 1B with 30 HR's, 100 RBI, 15 SB's, 100 BB's, and a .300 AVG. Bagwell has 3 (one of those with 30+ SB's).

Or how about the career leader-board for SB's by a 1B