Arod and the home run record

[fenrir]

Just curious what everyone's thoughts on this are. Whether you consider Aaron or Bonds the home run king, the chances are if he passes Aaron, he will want to pass Bonds as well. Do you think he can, or will he fall short?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

[redban]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

I disagree.

He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

128/6 = 21.333333

He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

[fenrir]

I think Arod will break it because he has nothing to lose. His steroid use is already publicly known, and the record is currently held by a steroid user, so why not break it? I think he will play until he breaks it.

[doctor_gogol]

I disagree.

He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

128/6 = 21.333333

He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

That is a best case scenario. He's going to diminish over the next 6 years. He may or may not be able to keep up that pace.

[Joltin' Joe]

Certainly not the sure thing it looked like at one time but what will help him is the contract. With the NYY paying such exorbidant sums of money, they are much more likely to keep him regularly in the lineup even when he has shrank to a shadow of his former self.

[Cubsfan97]

How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

[ol' aches and pains]

It makes no difference to me if A-Rod or Barry Bonds has more home runs, Hank Aaron is the home run champion until somebody clean beats him.

[Seattle1]

I think Pay-Roid will pass the "record" set by Bonds. If he starts to slow down all he needs to do is take some more steroids in order to hit some more homers.

[GiambiJuice]

One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Gary Sheffield did it too.

[ipitch]

One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Gary Sheffield also did that.

[redban]

How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Hank Aaron averaged 32 HR and Ted Williams averaged 26 HR.. and I don't think either of them had the DH, which Rodriguez will have.

Even if he doesn't get it by the end of contract, he still has hope..

Like let's say after 2017 he's still a bit short, like at 740 or something. You don't think the Yankees or some other team will sign him and give him a shot at breaking the record? That's money for them.

[BigRon]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

Isolated Power (IP) is an even better indicator:
2007- .333 Near-Ruthian
2008- .271 Good enough to lead the league some years
2009- .246 Lower, but still strong
2010- .236 Slipping, but still strong
2011- .185 A power hitter can't live here for long
2012- .135 This is around league average- if this keeps up, it's over

As I've mentioned before, 2012 is a HUGE year for Rodriguez. If he doesn't hit over 30 homers he has almost no chance to catch Bonds- or Aaron. He'll be 37 in July.

[GiambiJuice]

I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.

[fenrir]

I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.

That's if you take his word at face value, which I don't since he has lied in the past.

[redban]

Interestingly, his best hitting season came in 2007, a year we can be confident that he was clean.

If he used steroids outside of his days in Texas, I feel he would have admitted it.

He already looked bad enough when he had to confess that he used in 2001-2003; why hide anything else and risk looking even worse in the future?

[Rich the Giants fan]

Hank Aaron averaged 32 HR and Ted Williams averaged 26 HR.. and I don't think either of them had the DH, which Rodriguez will have.

Even if he doesn't get it by the end of contract, he still has hope..

Like let's say after 2017 he's still a bit short, like at 740 or something. You don't think the Yankees or some other team will sign him and give him a shot at breaking the record? That's money for them.

Henry Aaron hit 22 home runs as a DH.

[Rich the Giants fan]

I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.

Uh-huh, sure.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Interestingly, his best hitting season came in 2007, a year we can be confident that he was clean.

If he used steroids outside of his days in Texas, I feel he would have admitted it.

He already looked bad enough when he had to confess that he used in 2001-2003; why hide anything else and risk looking even worse in the future?

I don't. Admitting taking PED's prior to his days in New York did not make him eligible for a suspension. Admitting it after he joined the Yankees would have. He had plenty to lose in admitting he used PED's post-2003.

[fenrir]

Interestingly, his best hitting season came in 2007, a year we can be confident that he was clean.

If he used steroids outside of his days in Texas, I feel he would have admitted it.

He already looked bad enough when he had to confess that he used in 2001-2003; why hide anything else and risk looking even worse in the future?

Couple things:

1. We don't know if he was clean in 2007. There are undetectable steroids out there, and HGH wasn't tested for at the time.

2. The muscle you gain from steroids can easily be maintained by simply hitting the gym. When you stop juicing, you don't suddenly lose muscle mass unless you stop working out.

3. By admitting to using steroids for a few years, it makes it look far less severe. Has anyone but Canseco and Caminiti ever admitted that steroids benefited them? Even Mcgwire tried to say steroids didn't help him hit home runs, and that he supposedly used in low dosages.

4. Perhaps he's telling the truth, but I personally don't take his word at face value. It's very possible he's used longer then what he's admitted to.

[pheasant]

I would consider it a record, just in a different way.

The way I see the records are the following:

Most HRs, 154 game season: Ruth 60
Most HRs, 162 game season: Maris 61
Most HRs, 162 game season: Bonds 73*
Most HRs, career, Aaron: 755
Most HRs, career, Bonds: 762*
best slugging pct, season: Ruth .847
Best slugging pct, season: Bonds .863*

If I am going to ignore records during the past 15 years, then I might as well block out the whole steroid era. I cannot do that. I recognize the records. But I also still consider Ruth, Maris, and Aaron to still have some records as well.

As far as a prediction, I believe that A-rod will play 5 more years and average(including this year) and put up 85 more HRs, which will put him right around Ruth's numbers.

I believe that the biggest part of his decline is due to the fact that he stopped taking steroids, even though he took them for years. Of course, age is the other big component.

[fenrir]

I would consider it a record, just in a different way.

The way I see the records are the following:

Most HRs, 154 game season: Ruth 60
Most HRs, 162 game season: Maris 61
Most HRs, 162 game season: Bonds 73*
Most HRs, career, Aaron: 755
Most HRs, career, Bonds: 762*
best slugging pct, season: Ruth .847
Best slugging pct, season: Bonds .863*

If I am going to ignore records during the past 15 years, then I might as well block out the whole steroid era. I cannot do that. I recognize the records. But I also still consider Ruth, Maris, and Aaron to still have some records as well.

As far as a prediction, I believe that A-rod will play 5 more years and average(including this year) and put up 85 more HRs, which will put him right around Ruth's numbers.

I believe that the biggest part of his decline is due to the fact that he stopped taking steroids, even though he took them for years. Of course, age is the other big component.

Even if he doesn't break the record, I think he will hit over 700 home runs.

I wonder if Arod and Bonds will be the last two players to hit 700+ home runs for a long time.

[GiambiJuice]

Even if he doesn't break the record, I think he will hit over 700 home runs.

I wonder if Arod and Bonds will be the last two players to hit 700+ home runs for a long time.

Despite his slump, I think Albert Pujols is still a very good bet to get to 700.

[pheasant]

If pujols can hold up, he has a legit shot at 700 HRs. . I would love to see Pujols do it. But 700 is a VERY lofty goal for anybody. Jimmy Foxx had 500 Hrs by age 33. Griffey Jr appeared on pace to shatter the record. A-rod was on pace to hit well over 800 HRs, now, 700 looks challenging.

Steroids or not, it's exciting to watch a guy hit 700. I was in a big sports bar in Vegas(Sept 2004 celebrating my wife's b-day) when Bonds hit his 700th. Half of the bar was cheering and half was booing. The discussions started about steroids. I am talking about 2004! It was definitely a memorable moment. Granted, I am not a fan of steroids. But I cannot pretend that they didn't happen.

Ironically, the average fan looks the other way when it comes to football players juicing. However, baseball fans hold their players to a higher standard. I tend to think the same way, which is somewhat of a double standard.

[Bigfoot 88]

I disagree.

He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

128/6 = 21.333333

He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

So far this year he hasn't missed any games and is on pace for 22 home runs. Not a good sign.