Albert Pujols breaking out of slump?

[redban]

Pujols on pace for 25 HR and 100 RBI. He's out of his slump.

I think he finishes with 30-35 HR and 95-105 RBI.

The batting average is too much to overcome though. I say he finishes around .280

[Matthew C.]

Pujols up to .270 now and a OPS just shy of .800. Not bad for a guy left for dead with the 4th lowest OPS in the AL just over a month ago. On pace for almost 70 XBH too.

[3and2Fastball]

Pujols is hitting .341/.427/1.027 in the last 28 days. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

[GiambiJuice]

Pujols is hitting .341/.427/1.027 in the last 28 days. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

There were rumors of his decline much more so than his demise. and clearly has been declining for the past couple of years.

[fenrir]

There were rumors of his decline much more so than his demise. and clearly has been declining for the past couple of years.

"clearly"? His only "off season" was 2011. His 2010 season was on par with most of his seasons in his prime. Now obviously 2012 does show more indication of a decline, but the season is far from over.

[GiambiJuice]

"clearly"? His only "off season" was 2011. His 2010 season was on par with most of his seasons in his prime. Now obviously 2012 does show more indication of a decline, but the season is far from over.

2010 was a terrific season for any player to have - it was still a significant step below what he had done in the two previous years. He was coming off two straight season with a SLG% over .650 and he slugged under .600 in 2010. His OBP also dropped by several points. Again, it was a fabulous season, but it appears to have been the beginning of his decline. 2011 was also a great season by most players' standards, but again, a big step down from 2010. and his rates so far in 2012 are a big step down from 2011. This is the definition of a decline IMO. It's not a sudden drop off a cliff, but he has been getting progressively worse since 2009.

[fenrir]

Arod "appeared" to be on the decine in 2003 and 2004 in comparison to what he had established prior, and then in 2005 had the best offensive season of his career up to that point. 2010 may have been a slight step down from the numbers Pujols had in 2008 and 2009, but it was a season that ranked well within the norm among his established peak. 2011 on the other hand is most certainly a step down from his established peak. If he is on the decline, it started in 2011.

[GiambiJuice]

Arod "appeared" to be on the decine in 2003 and 2004 in comparison to what he had established prior, and then in 2005 had the best offensive season of his career up to that point. 2010 may have been a slight step down from the numbers Pujols had in 2008 and 2009, but it was a season that ranked well within the norm among his established peak. 2011 on the other hand is most certainly a step down from his established peak. If he is on the decline, it started in 2011.

You make a good point.

[wrgptfan]

If Pujols can continue to play at the level he has been since May 11, he would have a good year for many, a bad year for him, but a year not dissimilar to last year's. I am assuming that although he has only missed one game so far this year, he is likely to miss at least 6 more.

Period            G   PA   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB  CS    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Before May 11    32  136  130  10  25   8   0   1   11   6   2  17   0   0   0   2   4   0   0  0.192  0.228  0.277  0.505
May 11- Jun 28   43  192  163  29  54  12   0  11   35  22   4  18   2   0   5   1   5   4   0  0.331  0.406  0.607  1.013
Rest of season?  80  357  303  54 100  22   0  20   65  41   7  33   4   0   9   2   9   7   0  0.330  0.406  0.601  1.007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL           155  685  596  93 179  42   0  32  111  69  13  68   6   0  14   5  18  11   0  0.300  0.371  0.532  0.903

[brett]

Pujols is hitting .341/.427/1.027 in the last 28 days. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

Before tonight he is .338/.413/.636 with 34 RBI is 40 games, about 1/4 of a season.

If he could keep up that rate for the rest of the year he would go .306/.375/.555 with 35 home runs and 118 RBI.

[brett]

The AL league park rates for the Angels is .314 OB% and .401 slugging. That is down from .340/.440 that Pujols faced in earlier years. Just thought it was interesting. Stats that would have produced a 100 OPS+ 5-7 years ago would produce a 118 OPS+ today.

If he keeps up his 40 game rates he goes .375/.555 which would be a 157 OPS+. He would have a 191 OPS+ for the last 40 games based on adjusted league rates for the season.

[Ubiquitous]

Pujols is hitting .341/.427/1.027 in the last 28 days. Rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

It was actually .341/.427/.600 over 23 games which is still really good.

But Alfonso Soriano over a 28 game stretch from May 15th to June 11th posted a .308/.364/.769 line in 25 games.

Players get hot. It is unlikely that what Pujols is doing over the last 28 days is what we can expect from him the rest of the way.

Before tonight he is .338/.413/.636 with 34 RBI is 40 games, about 1/4 of a season.

If he could keep up that rate for the rest of the year he would go .306/.375/.555 with 35 home runs and 118 RBI.

In Alfonso Soriano's last 41 games he has hit .293/.366/.653 with 15 homers.

[Rich the Giants fan]

It was actually .341/.427/.600 over 23 games which is still really good.

But Alfonso Soriano over a 28 game stretch from May 15th to June 11th posted a .308/.364/.769 line in 25 games.

Players get hot. It is unlikely that what Pujols is doing over the last 28 days is what we can expect from him the rest of the way.



In Alfonso Soriano's last 41 games he has hit .293/.366/.653 with 15 homers.

I consider May 9 to be the date of Pujols' turnaround, although he hit his first home run on May 6. Since then, in 46 games, Sir Albert has hit .330/.400/.591 with 11 HR and 38 RBI. He's even 4-for-4 in SB and has walked 22 times (four intentionally) to just 20 strikeouts.

This after being declared dead and gone by many just 30 games into the season. I would expect it would be much more likely for Pujols to keep up his current pace then for Soriano.

[Ubiquitous]

Pujols hit .366/.541 last year and had a 46 game stretch where he hit .390/.663. He then had 25 games after that where he went .372/.485.

[brett]

It was actually .341/.427/.600 over 23 games which is still really good.

But Alfonso Soriano over a 28 game stretch from May 15th to June 11th posted a .308/.364/.769 line in 25 games.

Players get hot. It is unlikely that what Pujols is doing over the last 28 days is what we can expect from him the rest of the way.

So Pujols goes .330/.425/.624 for 9 years from '03 through '11.

Then .197/.235/.275 for 35 games to start the season

Then he goes .333/.406/.623 for 42 games

So is he unlikely to match those 42 game rates?

I'll agree that I can't find any great hitter in history who suddenly went of a 35 game stretch as relatively bad as what he did though.

[Ubiquitous]

What Albert did in in 2006 isn't really relevant anymore.

Albert is over 32 years old, playing in a different environment, has been in a decline for several years, and is not as healthy and robust as he once was.

All I'm really saying is that I don't expect Albert to put up a .400+/.600+ line for the rest of the season.

[Matthew C.]

Projecting the rest of the year, I would take his career rates and regress moderately for decline and stronger AL competition.

[Ubiquitous]

ZiPS has Albert at .292/.371/.539 the rest of the season and ZiPS is projecting a .280/.351/.498 line for the entire season.

[Matthew C.]

ZiPS has Albert at .292/.371/.539 the rest of the season and ZiPS is projecting a .280/.351/.498 line for the entire season.

I was thinking .300/.380/.550 the rest of the year.

[Rich the Giants fan]

ZiPS has Albert at .292/.371/.539 the rest of the season and ZiPS is projecting a .280/.351/.498 line for the entire season.

Well I'm sure ZiPS has never been wrong.

[Ubiquitous]

I'm also sure that some off the cuff guess has never been wrong either.

[Matthew C.]

Tom Tango has run studies in which he compared fans projections with the professional projections, and if I am not mistake, the professional ones are almost always closer. Not perfect, but closer.

Here is one reason why - fans don't typically consider luck or regression. I remember when A-Rod had his first full season in 1996 and hit about .360. Conventional and cliched wisdom suggested that since he was young and didn't "know the ropes" yet, and when he really learned "what it was like to be a big leaguer", he would hit .370 or maybe .380. Zips, and the like would have looked at his obnoxiously high .380-.390 BABIP and would have known that he would likely not even be close to .360 the next year. Sure enough, he hit .300 and has never had a BABIP within 30 points of that again and his BA would never be within 37 points of 1996 again.

[Rich the Giants fan]

I'm also sure that some off the cuff guess has never been wrong either.

Only time will tell for certain, but since I've been saying all season long that he was merely in a slump and would soon break out of it, it appears so far that I am right. At least judging by the numbers.

[Rich the Giants fan]

Tom Tango has run studies in which he compared fans projections with the professional projections, and if I am not mistake, the professional ones are almost always closer. Not perfect, but closer.

That would hardly surprise me, but what fans did he choose? Hardcore fans? Casual fans? A mixture? I'm no casual fan.

[Matthew C.]

That would hardly surprise me, but what fans did he choose? Hardcore fans? Casual fans? A mixture? I'm no casual fan.

I am not sure - I will try to find it.

Here is one reason why most fans get it wrong - fans don't typically consider luck or regression. I remember when A-Rod had his first full season in 1996 and hit about .360. Conventional and cliched wisdom suggested that since he was young and didn't "know the ropes" yet, and when he really learned "what it was like to be a big leaguer", he would hit .370 or maybe .380. Zips, and the like would have looked at his obnoxiously high .380-.390 BABIP and would have known that he would likely not even be close to .360 the next year. Sure enough, he hit .300 and has never had a BABIP within 30 points of that again and his BA would never be within 37 points of 1996 again.