MLB starting pitcher ratings with projected w/l record

[ebemiss]

I've just finished a starting pitcher log that shows the players overall rating and a projected won/loss record to compare with its actual won/loss record. It’ll list each games rating as well as an overall rating. (Higher rating is better. Rating is made up of basic, but important, pitching stats).

It’ll also project if the pitcher threw well enough to actually win the game or were they the benefit of great run support.

The projected won/loss record is a better indication, in my opinion, on how the pitcher is throwing. Their overall or actual won/loss record is influenced by their teams run support, bullpen and other factors. The metric I’ve created takes the majority of those factors out of the equation.

Here’s the link. (you'll see all 2012 pitchers that have started a game) Click a pitcher to get their stats and log.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog

I’ll continue to add past seasons so we can compare pitchers and era’s. I think it’s a different way of looking at pitchers and will show how a pitcher may be better than their “stats” suggest or who may be worse.

Look at a couple of the 2012 Red Sox starters: Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. If it wasn't for their run support, my numbers suggest, they'd be 2-7 and 1-7 respectively instead of 5-2 and 4-6.

I thought some may be interested. I have all 2011 and 2012 starters listed for all teams. I also have NYY teams from 1960-2012, Arizona from 1998-2012 and the NY Mets from 1962-2012. I'll add more this week. Or if anybody has a particular team they'd like added I can do a block like I've done with the others. Years from 1960 to 2012.

[ebemiss]

Just added all Cincy Reds starting pitchers from 1960-2012. take a look at some of their past teams.

[ebemiss]

Added Baltimore teams from 1960-2012 also. Plus it loads faster than before. take a look at a few pitchers and see if they pitched as well as their record says.

[BiZmaRK]

I've just finished a starting pitcher log that shows the players overall rating and a projected won/loss record to compare with its actual won/loss record. It’ll list each games rating as well as an overall rating. (Higher rating is better. Rating is made up of basic, but important, pitching stats).

It’ll also project if the pitcher threw well enough to actually win the game or were they the benefit of great run support.

The projected won/loss record is a better indication, in my opinion, on how the pitcher is throwing. Their overall or actual won/loss record is influenced by their teams run support, bullpen and other factors. The metric I’ve created takes the majority of those factors out of the equation.

Here’s the link. (you'll see all 2012 pitchers that have started a game) Click a pitcher to get their stats and log.

http://edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_pitchlog

I’ll continue to add past seasons so we can compare pitchers and era’s. I think it’s a different way of looking at pitchers and will show how a pitcher may be better than their “stats” suggest or who may be worse.

Look at a couple of the 2012 Red Sox starters: Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. If it wasn't for their run support, my numbers suggest, they'd be 2-7 and 1-7 respectively instead of 5-2 and 4-6.

I thought some may be interested. I have all 2011 and 2012 starters listed for all teams. I also have NYY teams from 1960-2012, Arizona from 1998-2012 and the NY Mets from 1962-2012. I'll add more this week. Or if anybody has a particular team they'd like added I can do a block like I've done with the others. Years from 1960 to 2012.

As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.

[Jackaroo Dave]

As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.

A lot of the time, people with an interest in this kind of data are particularly interested in the win expectation of the pitcher's team when the pitcher is starting, rather than in, say, justice or comparative ranings.

[ebemiss]

I believe my projected won/loss record and overall rating is a better indication of how "good" a pitcher is compared to his actual won/loss record. Does anybody really think Cliff Lee is an 0-3 pitcher. NO. My rankings show he should be 5-1. In my opinion that is more accurate than his 0-3 record based on how well he's pitched.

P W.-P L.-Act W.-Act L-Rating-ERA
Cliff Lee 5 1 0 3 42.99 3.48

[GiambiJuice]

An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...

[ebemiss]

[QUOTE=GiambiJuice;2025497]An .833 winning % seems a bit optimistic for a guy with a 3.48 ERA...[/QUO

A .000 actual win pct for a guy with a 3.48 era is way more ridiculous when judging a pitcher.

[scorekeeper]

As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.

Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. objpitching.pdf

[ebemiss]

Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. objpitching.pdf

Good stuff. That's exactly what I've tried to do with my ratings and projected w/l record.

[ebemiss]

duplicate post

[BiZmaRK]

Heck, I’ll go even further than that. Why not throw out any stat that isn’t objective in nature? Here’s a metric I produce for our HS team. Using any individual or combination of those particular data points to compare pitchers is fine by me because they all have very little to do with anything other than the pitcher. objpitching.pdf

Very well done!!! This trumps MLB pitching stats, as you completely leave out run support. Bill James should be very proud of you.

I guess I should ask how you define "runs". Is this the # of runs allowed under their watch or the # of batters who reached base under their watch who ultimately scored?

[ebemiss]

As pitchers aren't responsible for how many runs their team scores, there should not be any pitching stats - such as W-L - which are dependent on the number of runs the team scores. If it is desired to have a W-L record for a pitcher (as an individual stat as opposed to a team stat), then instead of using the actual number of runs his team scores, use an average number of runs scored league wide.

I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.

[BiZmaRK]

I've taken the pitchers run support TOTALLY out of the equation. that's what I've been trying to get across with my projections and rankings.

Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.

[ebemiss]

Why the need to take run support out of the equation? Pitching stats don't include run support. In other words, stats like W-L, which do factor in run support aren't really pitchers stats, but team stats.

I created a new Won Loss stat NOT USING RUN SUPPORT that is different than their actual won/loss stat. That was the point of me posting these.

[BiZmaRK]

I created a new Won Loss stat NOT USING RUN SUPPORT that is different than their actual won/loss stat. That was the point of me posting these.

Creating these stats is highly appreciated and very useful. However, a more difficult task is to convince the general public that pitcher's W-L records aren't individual pitching stats, but team stats in which a particular pitcher met a fairly arbitrary criteria of innings pitched.

[ebemiss]

Creating these stats is highly appreciated and very useful. However, a more difficult task is to convince the general public that pitcher's W-L records aren't individual pitching stats, but team stats in which a particular pitcher met a fairly arbitrary criteria of innings pitched.

I hear you. I listen to guys on radio and television go on about a pitcher who has a great won/loss record failing to realize his team scores 6 or 7 runs a game for him.

I think some of the public has come around to "our" line of thinking. They would have never named Felix Hernandez the CY Young a few years back with a 14-13 record (?). You are correct though, getting the rest of them to get on board that the w/l stat is meaningless as it's currently constructed is another matter.

I look back at some of the past CY Young award winners and all anybody cared about was wins. Thanks for the feedback I appreciate it.

[BiZmaRK]

I hear you. I listen to guys on radio and television go on about a pitcher who has a great won/loss record failing to realize his team scores 6 or 7 runs a game for him.

I think some of the public has come around to "our" line of thinking. They would have never named Felix Hernandez the CY Young a few years back with a 14-13 record (?). You are correct though, getting the rest of them to get on board that the w/l stat is meaningless as it's currently constructed is another matter.

I look back at some of the past CY Young award winners and all anybody cared about was wins. Thanks for the feedback I appreciate it.

I created a thread which touches on this http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...-players-don-t