2012 MLB Draft

[Dogdaze]

I know they weren’t necessarily planning on drafting SS Deven Marrero with their first pick and were pleasantly surprised he fell to them. But given that we have some potentially pretty good SS prospects already in the minors such as Iglesias, Vincicio and Bogaerts, if they sign Marrero who is said to be an outstanding defensive SS with potential to hit fairly well, could Iglesias be the most expendable SS prospect since he is closest to being MLB ready and could perhaps net something valuable via trade?

Consider that Aviles has done a very good job at SS defensively and is decent offensively. Currently amongst all MLB SS, Aviles ranks 5th in WAR at 1.7, 2nd in UZR at 6.7 and UZR/150 at 18.5 and 14th in OPS at .711 plus he’s under team control for 2 more years of arbitration at a very reasonable contract, 1.2 million for this year.

If the Sox decide Aviles is worth keeping as the starting SS for two more years, this might be enough time to develop one of Marrero, Vincicio or Bogaerts, but I just can’t see them keeping Iglesias toiling in the minors for two more years if Aviles stays.

Now having said that, it’s possible any of the other SS prospects could be traded, as well as Aviles. It’s possible the Sox decide Iglesias should be given a shot with the big club.

But when I consider our SS prospects potential, where Marrero may develop above Iglesias, Bogaerts who is currently ranked ahead of him according to soxprospects.com and I’ve read that some feel Vincicio may potentially have the highest upside of all of them and where Iglesias doesn’t hit that great but where Aviles is playing well, is under team control at a relatively low contract, perhaps Iglesias is the most logical to trade and perhaps would potentially get us something of value.

Here’s a little of what I read about Marrero;

Arizona State's Deven Marrero (4) was a premium prospect coming out of high school and has only improved his stock with the Sun Devils. A silky defender, Marrero has Gold Glove potential in the big leagues. With a simple, compact swing, Marrero is currently a doubles hitter, but could grow into average power. He's a complete player with slightly above-average speed and good instincts on the bases.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2612886.html

Everyday shortstop with plus defense and potential for above-average offensive game.

True baseball rat. Incredible instincts in the field and on the bases. Grinder type with better tools than you’d expect. Has tools to play shortstop at the MLB level. Needs to improve hitting approach and pitch recognition. With said improvements, could be a .280 hitter that can handle the bat and drive the ball into the gaps. Potential #2 hitter with a touch of speed and pop in his game. Overall profile plays up because of long term defensive projection and value at a premium defensive position. Excellent makeup. Potential average to slightly above-average Major League regular.

http://baseballprospectnation.com/20...en-marrero-ss/

“From a maturity standpoint, understanding the game and the ups and downs of it, the skill level at shortstop as a defender, absolutely [it could happen quickly]. I’m basing that off of guys I’ve coached and guys who I’ve seen coming through our conference. Deven is definitely, definitely in a position where I feel like he’s not that far off from having success at the major league level.”

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...deven-marrero-

Mike Roberts coached at the highest levels of college baseball, having led the University of North Carolina for 24 years. His son, Brian, is an All-Star second baseman for the Baltimore Orioles. He works for the Athletes Performance Institute, where Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis, among many pro athletes, have trained.

He still coaches baseball in the Cape League, where three of his players from the Cotuit Kettleers were taken in the first round Monday in Major League Baseball's amateur draft.

This is what Mike Roberts says about Deven Marrero, the shortstop from Arizona State University chosen 24th overall by the Red Sox.
"He's the best amateur baseball player on the defensive side I've ever seen in 35 years of coaching," he said Tuesday. "He's Omar Vizquel at 20, 21, except he'll be a better hitter and steal more bases. I've seen him do things defensively I've never seen another infielder do."

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/...-deven-marrero

[Therwil Flyer]

I know they weren’t necessarily planning on drafting SS Deven Marrero with their first pick and were pleasantly surprised he fell to them. But given that we have some potentially pretty good SS prospects already in the minors such as Iglesias, Vincicio and Bogaerts, if they sign Marrero who is said to be an outstanding defensive SS with potential to hit fairly well, could Iglesias be the most expendable SS prospect since he is closest to being MLB ready and could perhaps net something valuable via trade?

Consider that Aviles has done a very good job at SS defensively and is decent offensively. Currently amongst all MLB SS, Aviles ranks 5th in WAR at 1.7, 2nd in UZR at 6.7 and UZR/150 at 18.5 and 14th in OPS at .711 plus he’s under team control for 2 more years of arbitration at a very reasonable contract, 1.2 million for this year.

If the Sox decide Aviles is worth keeping as the starting SS for two more years, this might be enough time to develop one of Marrero, Vincicio or Bogaerts, but I just can’t see them keeping Iglesias toiling in the minors for two more years if Aviles stays.

Now having said that, it’s possible any of the other SS prospects could be traded, as well as Aviles. It’s possible the Sox decide Iglesias should be given a shot with the big club.

But when I consider our SS prospects potential, where Marrero may develop above Iglesias, Bogaerts who is currently ranked ahead of him according to soxprospects.com and I’ve read that some feel Vincicio may potentially have the highest upside of all of them and where Iglesias doesn’t hit that great but where Aviles is playing well, is under team control at a relatively low contract, perhaps Iglesias is the most logical to trade and perhaps would potentially get us something of value.

I think the consensus is that Bogaerts won't stay at shortstop but will have to move to third. As for Iglesias, there are about three years between them in terms of hen they likely reach the majors. So I don't think it is much of an issue. You never know what's going to be in three years. If Iglesias is the starting shortstop and Marrero is good enough to be a starting ss, then you can still trade either one of them.

Now that some time has passed, I still don't understand what they saw in Johnson that made them pick him over Eflin. Obviously they saw something in him and I hope he will surprise everyone...

[Dogdaze]

I think the consensus is that Bogaerts won't stay at shortstop but will have to move to third. As for Iglesias, there are about three years between them in terms of hen they likely reach the majors. So I don't think it is much of an issue. You never know what's going to be in three years. If Iglesias is the starting shortstop and Marrero is good enough to be a starting ss, then you can still trade either one of them.

Now that some time has passed, I still don't understand what they saw in Johnson that made them pick him over Eflin. Obviously they saw something in him and I hope he will surprise everyone...

Thanks, good point about Bogaerts I wasn't thinking about him being converted to 3rd, and I do get that Vincicio and Marrero, assuming he signs may take up to 3 years to develop, though from what I've read some are speculating that Marrero could take less time since he's played 3 years of college ball. But thats all speculation at this point.

Anyway with the Marrero pick as a player projected to stay at SS and possibly fast track through the minors, it got me wondering if Iglesias who many consider MLB ready now (at least his glove is), might end up as a trade chip if they keep Aviles at SS for the next 2 years, though I suppose they could DFA Punto next year and bring Iglesias up.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

The Red Sox have signed 8 out of 10 guys from their top 10 draft selections. Johnson and Maddox remain unsigned and the Red Sox do not have the money to give them the money they should get according to the new CBA. The Red Sox are over 300K over their bonus pool. They must hope that both guys will sign under slot, if they do not want to get penalized...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft....php?team=1003

[Therwil Flyer]

The Red Sox have signed 8 out of 10 guys from their top 10 draft selections. Johnson and Maddox remain unsigned and the Red Sox do not have the money to give them the money they should get according to the new CBA. The Red Sox are over 300K over their bonus pool. They must hope that both guys will sign under slot, if they do not want to get penalized...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft....php?team=1003

They can go 5% over their budget without loosing draft picks (they will have to pay a 75% tax on those 5%). That adds about $340K to the pool. So they can spend a total of $7,229,040. Of course, anything over $100K that is payed to 11th to 30th rounder counts against the pool. I guess that means no Carson Fulmer...

[Therwil Flyer]

Just saw a replay of the Florida-Kent State game. Sox 3rd rounder Austin Maddox (unsigned as of yet) pitched 1.1 innings. Fastball was consistently at 90mph according to ESPN. Changeup looked nasty at times and he got a couple of swings and misses on it. He didn't allow any hits or walk anybody nor did he strike anybody out.

[Therwil Flyer]

The Red Sox have signed 8 out of 10 guys from their top 10 draft selections. Johnson and Maddox remain unsigned and the Red Sox do not have the money to give them the money they should get according to the new CBA. The Red Sox are over 300K over their bonus pool. They must hope that both guys will sign under slot, if they do not want to get penalized...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft....php?team=1003

Interesting stuff...

[Therwil Flyer]

Zach Eflin, whom I was hoping the Red Sox would pick, signed for $1.2m (under slot). If Brian Johnson gets more than that, I will be very disappointed.

The Padres signed high-school RHP Zach Eflin, the No. 33 overall pick in the 2012 draft, to a contract with a $1.2 million bonus.
San Diego saved $325,000 under slot with the signing. Acquired with the Padres' compensatory pick for Heath Bell, Eflin is an electrifying high-school arm. He has a ways to go in his development, but boasts a mid-90s fastball to go along with his huge 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame. He likely fell from the first round over signability concerns, which is why it's fairly surprising that he didn't even get slot value from the Padres. Eflin was reportedly a strong commit to the University of Central Florida, but perhaps he was using that rhetoric as leverage. If all goes to plan, Eflin could be a front-line starter sometime in the next 4-5 years. (rotoworld)

I understand the FO's desire to fill the pitching hole in the minors rather quickly, but the idea that they passed ona guy with a no. 1 or 2 starter ceiling (and significant uncertainty) to sign a guy with no. 3 or 4 ceiling (with somewhat less uncertainty) is mind-boggling. Then again, the Red Sox FO has infinitely more knowledge on these guys than I have, so maybe they know exactly what they are doing...

[Therwil Flyer]

Zach Eflin, whom I was hoping the Red Sox would pick, signed for $1.2m (under slot). If Brian Johnson gets more than that, I will be very disappointed.



I understand the FO's desire to fill the pitching hole in the minors rather quickly, but the idea that they passed ona guy with a no. 1 or 2 starter ceiling (and significant uncertainty) to sign a guy with no. 3 or 4 ceiling (with somewhat less uncertainty) is mind-boggling. Then again, the Red Sox FO has infinitely more knowledge on these guys than I have, so maybe they know exactly what they are doing...

Brian Johnson signed for slot: 1'575'000. WTF?!?!?!?!?!

[Therwil Flyer]

If I'm correct, the Sox have now signed all of their picks from the first 10 rounds. Plus a couple of picks after the 10th round. The amount they now have left to spend over $100k per pick without losing a pick next year is $187'050.

Among the candidates that would require more than $100k are:
11th round (361) - Jamal Martin, CF, Dwyer HS (FL)
15th round (481) - Carson Fulmer, RHP, All Saints Academy (FL)
33rd round (1021) - Chris Carlson, OF, Soph., Orange Coast CC (CA)
35th round (1081) - Pat Delano, RHP, Braintree HS (MA)

Not sure, any one of them will sign for $287k.

[dominik]

If I'm correct, the Sox have now signed all of their picks from the first 10 rounds. Plus a couple of picks after the 10th round. The amount they now have left to spend over $100k per pick without losing a pick next year is $187'050.

Among the candidates that would require more than $100k are:
11th round (361) - Jamal Martin, CF, Dwyer HS (FL)
15th round (481) - Carson Fulmer, RHP, All Saints Academy (FL)
33rd round (1021) - Chris Carlson, OF, Soph., Orange Coast CC (CA)
35th round (1081) - Pat Delano, RHP, Braintree HS (MA)

Not sure, any one of them will sign for $287k.

the important picks to sign are the first 10 rounds anyway. rarely the guys past 20th round are real prospect although it does happen (piazza).

[Therwil Flyer]

the important picks to sign are the first 10 rounds anyway. rarely the guys past 20th round are real prospect although it does happen (piazza).

But I think that might have changed a bit with the new draft rules. Obviously the first three or four rounds are still the most important, but after that a lot of teams took cheap college seniors so they can use the "savings" to go above slot with the picks from the first couple rounds or the signability guys after the tenth.

Round 1 to 4: top picks (close to slot or above)
1st round (24) - Deven Marrero ($2.05m)
1st round (31) - Brian Johnson ($1,575,000)
1st supp. (37) - Pat Light, RHP ($1m)
2nd round (87) - Jamie Callahan ($600K)
3rd round (118) - Austin Maddox ($350K)
4th round (151) - Ty Buttrey ($1.3m)

Round 5 to 10: low cost college seniors (way below slot)
5th round (181) - Mike Augliera ($25K)
6th round (211) - Justin Haley ($125K)
7th round (241) - Kyle Kraus ($1K)
8th round (271) - Nathan Minnich ($10K)
9th round (301) - Mike Miller ($5K)
10th round (331) - JT Watkins ($1K)

Round 11 and after: mix of guys they like and can sign to $100k and a couple of high upside guys.

In rounds 1 to 10, when you fail to sign a pick, that pick's slot money is subtracted from your budget. In rounds 11 and after, that is not the case. Any $ above $100k counts against your pool, but you can't diminish your pool if you fail to sign someone. Therefore, there are a lot of high upside guys who have/had signability issues. If some of these players do indeed sign, they are much more likely to succeed than the college seniors from rounds 6 to 10. That's why I don't think rounds 1 to 10 are the most important, but rather rounds 1 to about 5 and then selected picks after round 10...

[Therwil Flyer]

If I'm correct, the Sox have now signed all of their picks from the first 10 rounds. Plus a couple of picks after the 10th round. The amount they now have left to spend over $100k per pick without losing a pick next year is $187'050.

Among the candidates that would require more than $100k are:
11th round (361) - Jamal Martin, CF, Dwyer HS (FL)
15th round (481) - Carson Fulmer, RHP, All Saints Academy (FL)
33rd round (1021) - Chris Carlson, OF, Soph., Orange Coast CC (CA)
35th round (1081) - Pat Delano, RHP, Braintree HS (MA)

Not sure, any one of them will sign for $287k.

Carson Fulmer has reportedly decided to go to Vandy and not sign with the Red Sox.

[Therwil Flyer]

Per Jim Callis: Willie Ethington has signed for $200K, that is $100K towards the cap. They have 87'050 left...