the main reason I think is that baseball more than the other sports is dependent on the level of opposition. In basketball this is easy. the quality of defense does play a role but generally if you can shoot 3s in HS you can do that in the NBA.
Originally Posted by scrabblehack
you can judge a player very well. If he has the tools to dominate lower level ball you can project this pretty good to higher levels.
baseball is different though. the pitcher/batter duel is the center point of the game. defense can be projected much better for example. but with hitting this is totally different. you can judge mechanics and power but how a player handles an 80 mph HS FB doesn't tell you anything about how he does against 95 with sink in the majors. a lot of people look like champs at the lower levels. HS stats mean nothing every drafted player rakes there.
but we never know how a player will react to the highest level. especially since hitting is extremely complicated due to the fact that the hitter has to decide strike or not himself. that causes a tough balance between agressiveness and patience which can instill uncertainity.
in pitching this applies too but it is much better projectable than hitting since you have a hard number (velocity) to measure. but in pitching there is another problem: injuries. I'd say at least a 3rd of all pitchers if not more have a major injury at some point. this can ruin a career quickly. so pitching is a gamble too.
I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. – Dusty Baker.