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Thread: Youth Phenoms

  1. #126
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    Nice, go Pops!

  2. #127
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    I prefer Ryan Braun's (a phenom from my league and town) 14 pitch homerun to a walk. My younger boy does not have wheels and a walk is not a great result; not horrible, but not great either. My older boy, on the other hand, is a terror on the bases even now, with both pitchers and catchers thowing 80's to mid 90's. He has a very high probability of taking 2nd on a walk. He has stolen home about 2 times a season. More when he was younger. That does not include passed balls (we know the difference).

  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by tg643 View Post
    If this is your kid you are a delusional parent. If the stats mean anything (they don't) I've seen plenty of top players in that age group put up better numbers. Yet when it was time they weren't good enough to play high school ball.
    What were his numbers in the Elite 32? What teams did he face and how did he fair? That would speak a little more to his skills at this age than the stats.

    It's good to be proud of the kid though, I've never added up my kid's games played ever, so I don't know if that is a lot or not, and we play year-round TB in So Cal as well as Little League. I think letting the kids know early on how incredibly hard it is to make it to HS, College or beyond is so important and I applaud you for that. Keep it real, keep them motivated, and most of all keep them enjoying the game.

  4. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roothog66 View Post
    Having attended (through my sports photography business as well as coaching) several major events every year and having been on the field with thousands of the best players, I can say I have only seen three players at age 12 that I thought were practically shoe-ins. Bryce Harper and Delino DeShields, Jr. seemed obvious. The other was J.P. Ramirez, who is languishing in AA for the nationals the last I heard. I have, however, seen or coached several future big leaguers, but none who struck me as gimmes, including Travis Wood and Cliff Lee. Currently, I put Emilio Vazquez in that catagory. Last season, he was MVP of the USSSA Elite 32 and I personally clocked him at 82mph. Also has wicked breaking stuff.

    Yesterday also brought the end of an era at my house. My 12yo (April birthday) is now officially taller than me. He has grown an inch and a half since October 2 and has breeched the 6' mark. I can still take him, though, if need be.
    Involved with the game for 50 years... I only saw one who was a shoe-in.
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  5. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake Patterson View Post
    Involved with the game for 50 years... I only saw one who was a shoe-in.
    Over the past 20 year the business I was in and the venues I worked pretty much assured that I would see every prospect 18 and under (including rec ball leagues). I guess "shoe-in" might be a little off since I probably would have said Ramirez was the best of the lot. As a note, I didn't have Robert Stock in that category. Having also done a bit of football, that is an easier sport to guage from a younger age. Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, and Noshawn Morino come immediately to mind as guys I saw at 13-15yo and had no doubts about.

  6. #131
    I'm curious about those that you never would have guessed it from.

  7. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by clayadams View Post
    I'm curious about those that you never would have guessed it from.
    Cliff Lee comes to mind. Very good at 12 in LL, but really blossomed in high school. Many others I only realized years later that I had seen or photographed and realized I had almost no recollection of them. Clay Bucholz is another that really blossomed in high school, but didn't ring any bells for me.

  8. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powerball Tournaments View Post
    What were his numbers in the Elite 32? What teams did he face and how did he fair? That would speak a little more to his skills at this age than the stats.

    It's good to be proud of the kid though, I've never added up my kid's games played ever, so I don't know if that is a lot or not, and we play year-round TB in So Cal as well as Little League. I think letting the kids know early on how incredibly hard it is to make it to HS, College or beyond is so important and I applaud you for that. Keep it real, keep them motivated, and most of all keep them enjoying the game.
    We never looked past ... What do I have to do to excell this year? and How do I prepare for next year? If my son mentioned college ball I reminded him it might be a good idea to make high school varsity first. I had to tame him since his five years older sister was accomplishing what he wanted in the future. She played softball in the Big East before he made varsity.

  9. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by clayadams View Post
    I'm curious about those that you never would have guessed it from.
    Bryan Lahair was the only player I ever saw that I knew would make it (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/play...hp?p=lahaibr01). There were a bunch that played college and Minors/Indy leagues that surprised me, but I never saw a player that made the MLB.
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  10. #135
    In New England, at least at that time, there were not that many. Bob Tewksbury went to my HS..my mother taught his younger brother in fourth grade. He subbed teaching sometimes and came back occasionally to our practices..you could hold out your glove and close your eyes and he would hit it.

  11. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake Patterson View Post
    Bryan Lahair was the only player I ever saw that I knew would make it (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/play...hp?p=lahaibr01). There were a bunch that played college and Minors/Indy leagues that surprised me, but I never saw a player that made the MLB.
    I know more than a few.

  12. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by raptor View Post
    In New England, at least at that time, there were not that many. Bob Tewksbury went to my HS..my mother taught his younger brother in fourth grade. He subbed teaching sometimes and came back occasionally to our practices..you could hold out your glove and close your eyes and he would hit it.
    In New England we have six (?) professional baseball teams (Portland, Providence, Boston, New Britain, Norwich, Worcester, New Haven) plus New York X2, plus the Cape Cod League, so we get to see a number of good ball players.

    So the question needs refining... Is it how many you have seen as developing youngsters?
    "He who dares to teach, must never cease to learn."
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  13. #138
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    The truth is, I've probably seen dozens, if not hundreds, of players from 8yo to 18yo who eventually made the majors and I don't even know it. If they didn't order something from me that necessitated using their name, I usually wouldn't know unless they really stood out. A couple of years ago, though, I went over records from 1995 to present and found 15 mlb'ers that I recognized. I'm sure there were probably twice that many in my orders who have played ml baseball, but I don't yet recognize. Of those, I believe 7 played rec league baseball (mostly from the Houston area except for Cliff Lee and Travis Wood). They may also have played travel later on, though.

  14. #139
    Quote Originally Posted by Jake Patterson View Post
    In New England we have six (?) professional baseball teams (Portland, Providence, Boston, New Britain, Norwich, Worcester, New Haven) plus New York X2, plus the Cape Cod League, so we get to see a number of good ball players.

    So the question needs refining... Is it how many you have seen as developing youngsters?
    Yes Jake, it is more about not seeing many here at that time whom you would just "know " they'd make it to the top. There's definitely high-quality ball all over New England. If you haven't read "The Last Best League", it's a great read about a season with Schiffner and the A's, profiling Tim Stauffer, Jamie D'Antona, and a few other players.

  15. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by raptor View Post
    Yes Jake, it is more about not seeing many here at that time whom you would just "know " they'd make it to the top. There's definitely high-quality ball all over New England. If you haven't read "The Last Best League", it's a great read about a season with Schiffner and the A's, profiling Tim Stauffer, Jamie D'Antona, and a few other players.
    Raptor, I coached against John Schiffner in HS and had him as a clinician at our coaches' clinics. Schiff was also a key character in the movie Summer Catch. He was played by Brian Denehy who lives in the next town over. Schiff is known as one of the best coaches in NE. He left HS ball last year, but I believe he is still coachig the A's.
    "He who dares to teach, must never cease to learn."
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  16. #141
    Is Denehy a baseball guy? That movie is awful compared to the book..it is a very fun read...like "Stolen Season" from Lamb, with more intensity. The author intimated that JS is one of the better connected coaches around..look at the schools and conferences which his players attend year over year.
    Last edited by raptor; 12-11-2012 at 07:45 PM.

  17. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by raptor View Post
    Is Denehy a baseball guy? That movie is awful compared to the book..it is a very fun read...like "Stolen Season" from Lamb, with more intensity.

    I don't think so... I believe he played football at Columbia.
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  18. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roothog66 View Post
    The truth is, I've probably seen dozens, if not hundreds, of players from 8yo to 18yo who eventually made the majors and I don't even know it.
    If we assume that 1:15,000 12 year olds make it to the Majors then that would mean at 300 MLB'ers you would need to have seen 4.5M players (14,999 X 300).

    1:15,000 was used years ago by the NCAA on HS baseball players making the pros.
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  19. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by raptor View Post
    Is Denehy a baseball guy?
    I have one quick story about Brian Denehy....

    In 2006 the son of an old Army buddy of mine, a young man I watched grow up, was killed in Mehtar Lam, Afghanistan, by an IED (SSGT Joseph Phaneuf). The line for the wake was literally a mile long. I got into line and quickly saw that standing next to me was Brian Denehy. We got to talk and I asked him how he knew Joey... He said "I don't. I just figured coming was the right thing to do." Regardless of any of his downside... The guy earned my everlasting respect that day.
    "He who dares to teach, must never cease to learn."
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  20. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by clayadams View Post
    I'm curious about those that you never would have guessed it from.
    Milton Bradley. He was nothing special at 13. Good player, some good tools, but a lot of guys were better than he was.

  21. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake Patterson View Post
    If we assume that 1:15,000 12 year olds make it to the Majors then that would mean at 300 MLB'ers you would need to have seen 4.5M players (14,999 X 300).

    1:15,000 was used years ago by the NCAA on HS baseball players making the pros.
    First, statistics that are this general can be misleading. Having just checked the NCAA website, they estimate one of every 200 high school baseball players will eventually be drafted. Now, if 2% eventually play in a major league game, that's 1:10,000. Looking at all youth ball, most likely much less, so even if I question the stat for HS players, you probably aren't that far off for youth. However, I did this for some 20 years full-time. 12 months a year. When you consider that every weekend I'm shooting 30 teams and four every weekday February through October, that's a lot of teams. In July and August, I'm shooting 14-20 per day, six days a week. And almost all of this was done in Florida and Texas among upper level travel teams, American Legion State, regionals, and, four times, Legion World Series. I think it's safe to say that I'm shooting among select groups/regions that would significantly increase the rate of players who eventually make MLB. Also remember that, just for business sake, I'm not reshooting many teams, so I'm shooting at least 2,000 teams a year or about 24,000 players a year. If we say that the groups/regions I shoot get the number down to one in 5,000 I may shoot 5 a year. Of course, over the years, I reshoot kids as they get older. Like I said, I can only count 15-20 I know for sure, but I imagine many more have slipped by me unknown. Of course, many of these numbers are speculative and in many years I shot football on saturdays instead of baseball. It was a fun business, though.

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