A bunch of guys: Hall of Fame?

[George H Ruth]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/...ve-players-mlb

It's behind the paywall, so I'm not sure what the protocol is for posting highlights?

Essentially, he breaks players into categories:

LOCKS
A-Rod (depending on PED's)
Jeter
Rivera
Chipper
Thome
Vizquel
Pujols
Cabrera
Halladay

PROBABLY
Rolen

MAYBE
Big Papi
Johan Santana
Helton
Beltran!
Andruw Jones
Adrian Beltre
Utley

GETTING CLOSE
Konerko
Sabathia
Hudson

PROBABLY NOT, BUT GETTING CLOSER
Hunter
Rollins

Thoughts? Comments?

[chicagowhitesox1173]

It does look pretty accurate, the only guy I would move up a rank is Tim Hudson.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I don't see Beltre getting in. He has impressive offensive seasons and a good arm, but he never had a dynamite run. Even now, he's likely to decline. It would be foolish to put in a guy because of a few strings of seasons equivalent to 130 OPS+. You'd have to open the doors for so many other players

[Matthew C.]

Not a terrible list. I am not sold Vizquel will make it. I also think Konerko isn't that close and CC is a lot closer. Hunter and Rollins have 0% chance.

I disagree re: Beltre. Unless he has a huge and fast decline, he will be a 400+ HR guy with many gold gloves, All Star appearances, and probably more postseason recognition if he stays with Texas. Had a monster 2004, which would have netted him the MVP w/o Bonds. His sabermetric stats are very favorable too, and 15 years from now, I think newer metrics will be used much more by the voters in HOF voting than they are now.

I just don't see a 400 HR 3B with an outstanding defensive reputaion not getting in.

[Matthew C.]

I didn't read the article, but I am assuming that Ichiro was left off for some specific reason.

Also, Berkman and Holliday have better shots than several of the guys they listed.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I didn't read the article, but I am assuming that Ichiro was left off for some specific reason.

Also, Berkman and Holliday have better shots than several of the guys they listed.

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have a better shot than Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.

[Matthew C.]

Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have a better shot than Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.

Where did I say otherwise? I didn't realize that "several guys on the list" meant "Dunn" and "Konerko". Dunn isn't even on the list at all, so why would you include him?

I was referring to Rollins, Hunter, and Ortiz, who with the PED cloud has little chance given Bonds and Clemens will struggle to make it.

I don't think Berkman will make it either - but niether will 90% of the guys below the "lock" section.

Konerko won't make it either, btw. I think Holliday has a decent chance. Less than 50%, but a chance.

[dgarza]

Those MAYBE and PROBABLY groups need to be balanced out. Helton is one, for example, that should be moved up into PROBABLY.

[Matthew C.]

Those MAYBE and PROBABLY groups need to be balanced out. Helton is one, for example, that should be moved up into PROBABLY.

With no MVPs, no huge milestones, and PED whispers, Helton will not make it, much less "probably" make it.

[PVNICK]

I would put Vizquel on the maybe list. Surprised (pleasantly ) that Rolen is probably. Papi has 0 chance he's a DH with roid allegations. Beltran, Helton and Andruw seem about right even if I think they all crush Vizquel. Not a bad list overall, at least he acknowledges many guys that superficially seem underrated like Beltre and Utley.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either. And I would say Konerko has a pretty good chance of making it in.

[dgarza]

Seems like a lot of HOF predictions are done so with short term lenses. In the long term (40... 50+ years), some of these guys have better chances than the author thinks. Concerns of today will fade to a degree. I myself would not be so arrogant to assume that my pains and concerns should be those of future generations.

[Matthew C.]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either. And I would say Konerko has a pretty good chance of making it in.

Much, much, much bigger 1B stars (McGriff, Mattingly, Hodges) didn't make it. Konerko has to have 500 HRs to make it, and I don't think he will get there.

[Matthew C.]

Seems like a lot of HOF predictions are done so with short term lenses. In the long term (40... 50+ years), some of these guys have better chances than the author thinks. Concerns of today will fade to a degree. I myself would not be so arrogant to assume that my pains and concerns should be those of future generations.

Perhaps. But the current PED paradigm is here to stay for a while. When the paradigm changes, so will my guesswork.

[dgarza]

Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday weren't listed either.

I would have liked to have seen Abreu listed as well.

[Matthew C.]

I would have liked to have seen Abreu listed as well.

He is in a different category - probably the same as Berkman. Guys who were close, but who's time has closed to get any closer. Neither will make it. Helton is probably in that group too.

[jjpm74]

Vizquel is definitely not a lock. He will be a 20-40% vote getter at best and doesn't deserve election, IMO (and I'm a large HOF guy).

Cabrera is not there yet. A few more good years and he will be.

Only Beltran has a shot out of the maybes. Johann Santana had a HOF peak, but the traditionalists will not go for his wins totals and it looks like his best days are behind him. Helton gets punished by a lot of people for playing in Colorado during the PEDs and pre-humidor era.

Does the author give a reason for excluding Ichiro Suzuki? That is a pretty big player to overlook.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

Vizquel is definitely not a lock. He will be a 20-40% vote getter at best and doesn't deserve election, IMO (and I'm a large HOF guy).

Cabrera is not there yet. A few more good years and he will be.

Only Beltran has a shot out of the maybes. Johann Santana had a HOF peak, but the traditionalists will not go for his wins totals and it looks like his best days are behind him. Helton gets punished by a lot of people for playing in Colorado during the PEDs and pre-humidor era.

Does the author give a reason for excluding Ichiro Suzuki? That is a pretty big player to overlook.

I'm not a big fan of Visquel but I have a hard time believing he wont be voted in. Every time I see him on tv these days the announcers are talking about how he's a shoo-in for the hof. I would have to think the voters feel the same way.

[jjpm74]

I'm not a big fan of Visquel but I have a hard time believing he wont be voted in. Every time I see him on tv these days the announcers are talking about how he's a shoo-in for the hof. I would have to think the voters feel the same way.

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

[Matthew C.]

We need to keep in mind that this is a list of who we think will make it. Not who we think should or who we wish would. MVP's, ASG appearances, HRs, RBIs, BA, and milestones are still the key factors in actual enshrinement. No matter how much I like WAR, or whatever, the facts are, guys like Jones, Helton, Rolen, and Beltran did not do enough of those writer-favorite things to be elected. I wouldn't be surprised if nobody under the LOCK section from above make it unless some of them hang on long enough to accumulate benchmarks.

[Matthew C.]

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Don Mattingly, Steve Garvey, and Orel Hershiser were called "Future HOFers" a lot while active. Bert Blyleven never was.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

TV announcers don't have a vote. It's the writers who have a vote. I've heard several TV announcers mention Lance Berkman as a future HOFer when he hangs it up. That doesn't mean he will get in either. At the end of his career, a couple of non-Met announcers referred to John Franco as a HOFer. He didn't even clear the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot for more than a year.

Yeah but Franco is a reliever, Berkman is too injury prone but Visquel is adored by most writers for his defense. There gonna give him the Ozzie Smith treatment. (Although Ozzie Smith was better and really was a hofer)

[willshad]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

[Matthew C.]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

I agree - I think he was approaching the list more form a who he thinks deserves it angle.

[NJRob65]

He overrates most of these guys' chances. I would say Cabrera is 'getting close'..far from a lock already. Vizquel has virtually no chance. Big Papi is a juicer so his chances are virtually nil as well. I think Giambi has a better shot than Papi. Jones and Utley did not do enough, and aren't likely to add anything in the future. Rolen is a 'maybe maybe'. Hunter and Rollins? No way.

Agreed particularly regarding Vizquel. His failure to reach 3000 hits pretty much dooms his chances. Alan Trammell, a fellow shortstop and a much better candidate, has a career WAR 67.1 , while Vizquel has a WAR of 40.3. FWIW, Fan EloRater has Trammell as the number 69 offensive player of all time, while Vizquel is #221. Trammell hasn't close to getting elected, how in the world would Vizquel be considered a lock? Also, Johnny Damon at least merits a mention, as does Lance Berkman.

Scott Rolen should make it, but he won't come close.

The fact that he overrates the chances of elected of several candidates makes the exclusion of Ichiro Suzuki, who is a lock, all the more puzzling.