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Thread: Boston Red Sox offseason thread

  1. #301
    you also need to add 0.5 points of ERA due to fenway and another 0.2 or so due to the boston media to get the actual production of a new pitcher in boston.

    getting a 3.4 ERA NL pitcher might give you 4.1 pitcher in boston.
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. – Dusty Baker.

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Don't get me wrong, I like Sanchez for all the reasons you mentioned (still young, won't cost a draft pick, is a decent middle of the rotation guy and is actually available and not some Felix-pipe dream). But I shudder at the idea of handing out a 6 year contract to a pitcher who isn't a sure fire ace. Isn't that what got us in this mess in the first place (the contracts handed out to Lackey and resigning Beckett?).

    As I said before, I think this team can be competitive (as in a 90 win team that has a fighting chance to make the playoffs) in 2013 without sacrificing the rebuilding process, IF they make a couple of smart moves. A lot of people seem to think that we need a Manny type hitter in all 9 rotation spots to have a chance to compete. I disagree. Look at the 2012 Orioles or Rays. But again, I am not sure handing out 6/90 is one of these smart moves and I don't doubt that Sanchez will get something close to that from some team. As you say, if his price comes down, let's talk about it. But at 6/90 I'd say wait out the market and find this year's Hiroki Kuroda.

    As much as they need to add pitching, I'd like them to be fiscally responsible. Even if it hurts them in 2013.
    Trust me, I know all too well about the bad contracts, but there are times you just have to take a calculated risk and gamble it pays off. As scary as that is if the player fails, the gamble could also pay dividends. Manny’s contract for instance was a gamble that paid off pretty well for example. There are some players I wouldn’t gamble on such as Geinke and Hamilton due to their past issues which could crop up playing in Boston.

    And truth be told I’m not 100% sold on Sanchez, especially with the amount of money he wants and concerns about his past injury history 2007-2009. Plus Dominik does bring up a fair point about adding a little to his ERA by playing in Fenway/AL East. But Sanchez at 29 may be hitting his prime and may pitch very well for several years. He has been healthy since 2010 logging 195+ innings per year since. And if it takes a six year contract to sign him, we’d have him for ages 29 through 34 which isn’t terribly old.

    We assumedly have a lot of money to spend. Over 90 million (less about 23 million for Ortiz, Ross and Gomes) according to the Providence Journal’s Brian MacPherson.
    http://blogs.providencejournal.com/s...ir-roster.html

    So we can certainly afford Sanchez, even if it turns out to be an over pay, but we definitely shouldn’t be foolish in over spending either, so I agree about being fiscally responsible. For me, if Sanchez comes down in price a bit I think I’d be more willing to gamble on Anibal given his age.

    And if some other team over-pays for Sanchez, maybe we can still find decent pitcher on a short term deal, Haren or Lohse perhaps. But one thing is for sure, at least in my mind, is that we need to improve our pitching in order to compete.
    Last edited by Dogdaze; 11-24-2012 at 09:44 AM.

  3. #303
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    With Broxton about to be signed to a 3 year deal and Jeremy Affeldt already receiving 3/18, I think the Red Sox should look closely into trading (away) relievers. It seems teams are once again forgetting the lessons learned and are willing again to massively overpay for RPs. The market seems particularly thin for LHRPs.

    The Sox have currently at least for LHRPs in Craig Breslow, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales (unless he starts). Miller has been very effective out of the pen and has just absolutely killed lefties holding them to a .193 wOBA with 32.1 K% and 3.6 BB%. Breslow has held lefties to a .305 wOBA 8which is worse than his .257 wOBA against righties) but has a 27.6 K% and a 2.6 BB% against lefties. Hill has been better against righties last year actually, but as with Miller his sample is exceptionally small. Morales has been converted to starter but might be better out of the pen.

    With Andrew Bailey as the designated closer, Tazawa as the bullpen ace, the Sox also have Aceves, Atchinson, Melancon, a bunch of others and potentially Daniel Bard. In a market apparently crazy for RPs, I would like to see them turn maybe Aceves and one of the loogies into a serious return. Aceves could be interesting for a team that feels like their SP depth is particularly thin. One of the LHRPs could for example be packaged with Salty to get a really good return.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    With Broxton about to be signed to a 3 year deal and Jeremy Affeldt already receiving 3/18, I think the Red Sox should look closely into trading (away) relievers. It seems teams are once again forgetting the lessons learned and are willing again to massively overpay for RPs. The market seems particularly thin for LHRPs.

    The Sox have currently at least for LHRPs in Craig Breslow, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales (unless he starts). Miller has been very effective out of the pen and has just absolutely killed lefties holding them to a .193 wOBA with 32.1 K% and 3.6 BB%. Breslow has held lefties to a .305 wOBA 8which is worse than his .257 wOBA against righties) but has a 27.6 K% and a 2.6 BB% against lefties. Hill has been better against righties last year actually, but as with Miller his sample is exceptionally small. Morales has been converted to starter but might be better out of the pen.

    With Andrew Bailey as the designated closer, Tazawa as the bullpen ace, the Sox also have Aceves, Atchinson, Melancon, a bunch of others and potentially Daniel Bard. In a market apparently crazy for RPs, I would like to see them turn maybe Aceves and one of the loogies into a serious return. Aceves could be interesting for a team that feels like their SP depth is particularly thin. One of the LHRPs could for example be packaged with Salty to get a really good return.
    Hmmm, thats a pretty good idea.

  5. #305
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    In other rumor news; apprently the Red Sox have at least talked with KC about trading Lester for Will Myers.

    According to a report in the Kansas City Star, the Red Sox are one of the teams that have discussed a deal with the Royals for their outfield prospect Wil Myers. The 21-year-old Myers is arguably the top player prospect in baseball. In a 2012 season split between Triple A and Double A, Myers hit 37 home runs with 109 RBI, batted .314 with a .387 on-base percentage and .600 slugging percentage.
    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/b...osition=recent

    Not sure if this will go anywhere, but I'd be all for this trade.

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    In other rumor news; apprently the Red Sox have at least talked with KC about trading Lester for Will Myers.



    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/b...osition=recent

    Not sure if this will go anywhere, but I'd be all for this trade.
    Uhmmm, what now? As exciting a prospect as young Will Myers is, I'm not sure this helps the Red Sox? Not only is Lester's trade value at a near all time low (and thus it's a terrible idea to trade him now) but the Red Sox have one major problem and that is pitching. So trading Lester now for an OFer? Not to mention that the Red Sox have a couple of high upside near ready OF prospects in their farm.

    Lester is signed through 2013 with a club option for '14. So maybe do it and then sign (or trade for) an appropriate replacement (plus another starter), without of course taking on another albatross contract?

    I think discussing it is somewhat moot, this isn't happening as it makes no sense for the Royels imho.
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 11-27-2012 at 01:27 AM.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  7. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Uhmmm, what now? As exciting a prospect as young Will Myers is, I'm not sure this helps the Red Sox? Not only is Lester's trade value at a near all time low (and thus it's a terrible idea to trade him now) but the Red Sox have one major problem and that is pitching. So trading Lester now for an OFer? Not to mention that the Red Sox have a couple of high upside near ready OF prospects in their farm.

    Lester is signed through 2013 with a club option for '14. So maybe do it and then sign (or trade for) an appropriate replacement (plus another starter), without of course taking on another albatross contract?

    I think discussing it is somewhat moot, this isn't happening as it makes no sense for the Royels imho.
    I understand your concern, and you do have a point, questioning why KC would do this, which is just a rumor, could be nothing more then a casual conversation between clubs. So I tend to doubt this happens, but you never know. Myers, from what I’ve read has a lot of potential and could turn out to be a star. And if they did trade Lester, as you mentioned they could sign two FA pitchers such as Sanchez and another pitcher to a one or two year deal, someone like Haren perhaps.

    Here’s what the KC Star newspaper wrote;

    Myers was the consensus minor-league player of the year and is already drawing heavy interest from numerous clubs.

    While the Royals are reluctant to deal him, it appears doing so could net either Shields or Lester, each of whom was an All-Star as recently as 2011. The problem: Both are expensive and on track to become free agents in two years.

    Both deals have been discussed, but neither appears close at the moment. Other players could be involved, but the basic framework would be Myers for one of the two pitchers. At this point, all sides — the Royals, Rays and Red Sox — remain hesitant.
    http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26...and-front.html

  8. #308
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    I understand your concern, and you do have a point, questioning why KC would do this, which is just a rumor, could be nothing more then a casual conversation between clubs. So I tend to doubt this happens, but you never know. Myers, from what I’ve read has a lot of potential and could turn out to be a star. And if they did trade Lester, as you mentioned they could sign two FA pitchers such as Sanchez and another pitcher to a one or two year deal, someone like Haren perhaps.

    Here’s what the KC Star newspaper wrote;

    Myers was the consensus minor-league player of the year


    http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26...and-front.html
    So were Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli and Tim Salmon (among the non-pitching minor leaguers of the year (BA)).

    There are plenty reasons to like Myers and think about trading Lester but there are plenty reasons not to.

    -Jon Lester (28), signed through 2013 at $11.625m with a $13m club option for '14
    Lester's fastball velocity has declined over the last three years(93.5mph -> 92.6mph -> 92mph) and so did his strikeout rate (26.1% -> 22.8% -> 19%). His GB-rate has also declined and his HR/FB rate has increased in that time (Although these are generally seen as fairly variable from year to year). His cutter has according to some gone from an elite pitch to an average one. This is cause for concern!
    However, while last season and the last month of the season before have been truly underwhelming, since his first full season he has accumulated a 9 WAR and ranks 12th in K's (that's actually better than Greinke in the same time span) and even in his bad 2012 he still posted a 3.82 xFIP and a 3.94 SIERA.

    -Wil Myers (22), no MLB service time
    Myers is still a prospect (And as exciting as he is, he is no Mike Trout or Bryce Harper) He hit .304 .378 .554 in 439 PA at AAA and .351 .421 .739 in 152 PA in AA last year. However, both of his home parks were home run friendly according to StatCorner. In AA his numbers were inflated by .425 BABIP and in AAA he still had a .349 BABIP.

    Yes, the thought of Myers and Bogaerts reching their potential and forming an insane 3, 4 punch for years to come at very low cost is exciting and so is the thought of an OF of Myers, Bradley and Brentz. But the Red Sox's biggest issue is pitching. So if, in this situation, you trade away your best pitcher who is at the very least an very good pitcher and potentially (if his velo decline and loss of the cutter are reversible) an ace, you better be sure that you don't trade for a young Delmon Young!

    And yes, you could hypothetically mitigate the loss of Lester by signing Greinke. But the contract it will take to sign Greinke he won't live up to, period. And Sanchez is not an adequate replacement for Lester, nor is it certain that they can (at a reasonable price in money and years) sign him. In fact you could easily turn this argument around, instead of trading Lester for Myers and then overpay for Greinke or Sanchez, you may as well keep Lester and overpay for Hamilton?!

    I'm not saying the Sox shouldn't do it, but a) this seems like buying high (on Myers) and selling low (on Lester) and b) it exacerbates the rotation problems (unless you trade Myers at a later time in a package for a stud starter). It also makes me wonder if they see Lester's number as a true (irreversible) trend.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    I understand your concern, and you do have a point, questioning why KC would do this, which is just a rumor, could be nothing more then a casual conversation between clubs. So I tend to doubt this happens, but you never know. Myers, from what I’ve read has a lot of potential and could turn out to be a star. And if they did trade Lester, as you mentioned they could sign two FA pitchers such as Sanchez and another pitcher to a one or two year deal, someone like Haren perhaps.

    Here’s what the KC Star newspaper wrote;

    Myers was the consensus minor-league player of the year


    http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/26...and-front.html
    So were Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli and Tim Salmon (among the non-pitching minor leaguers of the year (BA)).

    There are plenty reasons to like Myers and think about trading Lester but there are plenty reasons not to.

    -Jon Lester (28), signed through 2013 at $11.625m with a $13m club option for '14
    Lester's fastball velocity has declined over the last three years(93.5mph -> 92.6mph -> 92mph) and so did his strikeout rate (26.1% -> 22.8% -> 19%). His GB-rate has also declined and his HR/FB rate has increased in that time (Although these are generally seen as fairly variable from year to year). His cutter has according to some gone from an elite pitch to an average one. This is cause for concern!
    However, while last season and the last month of the season before have been truly underwhelming, since his first full season he has accumulated a 9 WAR and ranks 12th in K's (that's actually better than Greinke in the same time span) and even in his bad 2012 he still posted a 3.82 xFIP and a 3.94 SIERA.

    -Wil Myers (22), no MLB service time
    Myers is still a prospect (And as exciting as he is, he is no Mike Trout or Bryce Harper) He hit .304 .378 .554 in 439 PA at AAA and .351 .421 .739 in 152 PA in AA last year. However, both of his home parks were home run friendly according to StatCorner. In AA his numbers were inflated by .425 BABIP and in AAA he still had a .349 BABIP.

    Yes, the thought of Myers and Bogaerts reching their potential and forming an insane 3, 4 punch for years to come at very low cost is exciting and so is the thought of an OF of Myers, Bradley and Brentz. But the Red Sox's biggest issue is pitching. So if, in this situation, you trade away your best pitcher who is at the very least an very good pitcher and potentially (if his velo decline and loss of the cutter are reversible) an ace, you better be sure that you don't trade for a young Delmon Young!

    And yes, you could hypothetically mitigate the loss of Lester by signing Greinke. But the contract it will take to sign Greinke he won't live up to, period. And Sanchez is not an adequate replacement for Lester, nor is it certain that they can (at a reasonable price in money and years) sign him. In fact you could easily turn this argument around, instead of trading Lester for Myers and then overpay for Greinke or Sanchez, you may as well keep Lester and overpay for Hamilton?!

    I'm not saying the Sox shouldn't do it, but a) this seems like buying high (on Myers) and selling low (on Lester) and b) it exacerbates the rotation problems (unless you trade Myers at a later time in a package for a stud starter). It also makes me wonder if they see Lester's number as a true (irreversible) trend.


    Sidenote: The Sox actually came close to signing Myers in 2009 but picked Reymond Fuentes (yieks) over him in the first round and Alex Wilson over him in round 2. By the time they picked in round 3 he was already off the board.
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 11-27-2012 at 01:23 PM.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  10. #310
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    Looking at Lester's numbers some more, this struck me: in 2012 hitters went .297 .362 .508 against Lester at home and .236 .293 .364 on the road (careerwise his home/away splits are nowhere near as pronounced as this). I am not entirely sure how to explain this massive split last year.

    Velocity is important to Lester (his command is somewhat fringy for a frontline starter), so the question to what JL is worth depends on whether he can regain the velo lost over the past two years.

    Bradford is reporting that they talked about a trade that centers around Lester/Myers but maybe with some OF help going to KC and some pitching help coming back.

    Also, worth reading is Speier's take on the whole rumor: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...e-dazzling-rum
    Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 11-27-2012 at 10:31 AM.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  11. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    With Broxton about to be signed to a 3 year deal and Jeremy Affeldt already receiving 3/18, I think the Red Sox should look closely into trading (away) relievers. It seems teams are once again forgetting the lessons learned and are willing again to massively overpay for RPs. The market seems particularly thin for LHRPs.

    The Sox have currently at least for LHRPs in Craig Breslow, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales (unless he starts). Miller has been very effective out of the pen and has just absolutely killed lefties holding them to a .193 wOBA with 32.1 K% and 3.6 BB%. Breslow has held lefties to a .305 wOBA 8which is worse than his .257 wOBA against righties) but has a 27.6 K% and a 2.6 BB% against lefties. Hill has been better against righties last year actually, but as with Miller his sample is exceptionally small. Morales has been converted to starter but might be better out of the pen.

    With Andrew Bailey as the designated closer, Tazawa as the bullpen ace, the Sox also have Aceves, Atchinson, Melancon, a bunch of others and potentially Daniel Bard. In a market apparently crazy for RPs, I would like to see them turn maybe Aceves and one of the loogies into a serious return. Aceves could be interesting for a team that feels like their SP depth is particularly thin. One of the LHRPs could for example be packaged with Salty to get a really good return.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    Hmmm, thats a pretty good idea.
    from Olney:
    Rival teams say that Red Sox open to dealing Andrew Bailey--but because his value is currently low, odds of them trading him are pretty low.
    I hope this means that Sox have realized that teams are going crazy for RPs and thus are willing to sell high from a (perceived) area of strength, their pen. Bailey probably not the best piece to trade since, as Buster mentions, his value is down. Other bullpen pieces better suited I think.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  12. #312
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    In other rumor news; apprently the Red Sox have at least talked with KC about trading Lester for Will Myers.



    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/b...osition=recent

    Not sure if this will go anywhere, but I'd be all for this trade.
    You can never have too much pitching. You don't trade one of your two best starters when all you have is a mediocre stable of starting pitchers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyK View Post
    You can never have too much pitching. You don't trade one of your two best starters when all you have is a mediocre stable of starting pitchers.
    you dont trade one of your starters unless you have a plan to aquire more starting pitching. I like the idea and love the fact that Ben is thinking out of the box (even if its just a rumor)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    Looking at Lester's numbers some more, this struck me: in 2012 hitters went .297 .362 .508 against Lester at home and .236 .293 .364 on the road (careerwise his home/away splits are nowhere near as pronounced as this). I am not entirely sure how to explain this massive split last year.

    Velocity is important to Lester (his command is somewhat fringy for a frontline starter), so the question to what JL is worth depends on whether he can regain the velo lost over the past two years.

    Bradford is reporting that they talked about a trade that centers around Lester/Myers but maybe with some OF help going to KC and some pitching help coming back.

    Also, worth reading is Speier's take on the whole rumor: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...e-dazzling-rum
    To me Lester has become a mediocre pitcher the past two years, he ranked 32nd among all MLB pitchers in fwar in both 2011 at 3.7 and 2012 at 3.3 so this isn’t just one off year but two years in a row.

    IMO Lester can be replaced with another pitcher that’s just as good or maybe better, this is one reason I’d consider trading him. As you mentioned his home/away splits were pretty strange, where he was above average away (ERA 3.20 WHIP 1.159) but far below average pitching at Fenway (ERA 6.31 WHIP 1.589) in 2012. I know Fenway’s a hitter park so I’d expect a little added to his ERA, but not almost double, it’s pretty odd.

    I realize he may bounce back and pitch more like he did prior to 2011, and I do have hope that he will especially with a new manager/pitching coach/catcher, but I think there’s a possibility he pitch’s about the same as the past few years or possibly declines further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyK View Post
    You don't trade one of your two best starters when all you have is a mediocre stable of starting pitchers.
    You do , or I would if you can replace a pitcher with someone just as good or maybe better via FA and get a prospect that could turn out to be a star.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Boxer View Post
    you dont trade one of your starters unless you have a plan to aquire more starting pitching. I like the idea and love the fact that Ben is thinking out of the box (even if its just a rumor)
    I agree, I have to assume if they did trade Lester that they have a plan to sign a good FA to take his place.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    I agree, I have to assume if they did trade Lester that they have a plan to sign a good FA to take his place.
    If there was a FA pitcher as good as Lester, they'd probably add him anyway. But unless you want to take a risk on Greinke or overpay for potential on Sanchez, that guy just isn't out there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    I agree, I have to assume if they did trade Lester that they have a plan to sign a good FA to take his place.
    If there was a FA pitcher as good as Lester, they'd probably add him anyway. But unless you want to take a risk on Greinke or overpay for potential on Sanchez, that guy just isn't out there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    You do , or I would if you can replace a pitcher with someone just as good or maybe better via FA and get a prospect that could turn out to be a star.
    Replacing Lester with someone comparable still leaves you with a weak staff of starting pitchers unless you think Lackey will rebound and win 18 to 20.

    The Sox of 2004 and 2007 provided the front office with a road map to getting back into the World Series. Acquire two or three stars like Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Timlin or Foulke. Add a proven #3 or #4 hitter like Manny...sign two or three lesser free agents like Muellar, Millar, and Damon. This won't guarantee certain success, but it's such a simple formula that you wonder why everybody doesn't try to do it.The Sox have the money, but do they have the know how?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike D. View Post
    If there was a FA pitcher as good as Lester, they'd probably add him anyway. But unless you want to take a risk on Greinke or overpay for potential on Sanchez, that guy just isn't out there.
    IMO there are several pitchers as good or maybe better then what Lester gave us the past two years via FA, such as Sanchez, Lohse, Jackson, Haren, Marcum, McCarthy and Greinke. Though I’d stay away from Greinke, but would pay for Sanchez if it's not too crazy in dollars and years.

    Now having said that I do believe there is a possibility Lester can bounce back to pitch closer to his pre 2011 form which is better then any of the above mentioned pitchers, except maybe Greinke. But there’s also the possibility Lester will pitch about the same as 2011/2012 which was mediocre. My gut says he’ll improve, but probably not so well that he’ll pitch better then some of the above mentioned pitchers.

    I’m also very aware Myers could end up being a bust, but he also could turn out to be a star. So it’s a gamble, but for me I’d definitely trade Lester for Myers then sign two of the above pitchers, such as Sanchez to a multi year deal and maybe Haren or Lohse to a one year deal. Plus with Myers there’s the possibility of keeping him and adding a potential big bat or trading him for something valuable like a good pitcher or SS.
    Last edited by Dogdaze; 11-28-2012 at 07:36 PM.

  21. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyK View Post
    Replacing Lester with someone comparable still leaves you with a weak staff of starting pitchers unless you think Lackey will rebound and win 18 to 20.
    True, but by trading Lester for Myers then signing someone as good as Lester, you gain an excellent prospect with a lot of potential while still having as good of a pitcher.

    I highly doubt Lackey will win 18 to 20, but I do think Buchholz will improve, not saying he'll win 18 to 20 but I think (gut feeling) Buchholz will be above average. I also think theres a good chance Doubrant will improve and I'm hoping that Lackey may be decent.

  22. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Therwil Flyer View Post
    from Olney:


    I hope this means that Sox have realized that teams are going crazy for RPs and thus are willing to sell high from a (perceived) area of strength, their pen. Bailey probably not the best piece to trade since, as Buster mentions, his value is down. Other bullpen pieces better suited I think.
    Good point, do you think we can package one or two plus maybe Salty for a decent pitcher or maybe a SS?

  23. #323
    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    To me Lester has become a mediocre pitcher the past two years, he ranked 32nd among all MLB pitchers in fwar in both 2011 at 3.7 and 2012 at 3.3 so this isn’t just one off year but two years in a row.

    IMO Lester can be replaced with another pitcher that’s just as good or maybe better, this is one reason I’d consider trading him. As you mentioned his home/away splits were pretty strange, where he was above average away (ERA 3.20 WHIP 1.159) but far below average pitching at Fenway (ERA 6.31 WHIP 1.589) in 2012. I know Fenway’s a hitter park so I’d expect a little added to his ERA, but not almost double, it’s pretty odd.

    I realize he may bounce back and pitch more like he did prior to 2011, and I do have hope that he will especially with a new manager/pitching coach/catcher, but I think there’s a possibility he pitch’s about the same as the past few years or possibly declines further.
    I agree with your point but you have to consider that the task to "just find an average pitcher" is not as easy as it sounds. getting todays MLB hitters out is a very hard task. even a 3.5 ERA pitcher (which is probably 3.8 in fenway) is tremendously expensive in these days since a lot of teams are now in contention with the 10 PO spots and all seek for pitching. so even getting that #3 starter who just should eat innings and keep you in the game is not an easy thing since so many teams want this guy. also a lot of FAs are resigned in the last years. so the number of available and solid FA pitchers is really not high which leads to overpaying even for mediocre pitchers.

    I'm not against trading lester for a good value but getting similar pitching to compensate for his loss while not impossible will not be cheap at all.
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and can’t run, most of the time he’s clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. – Dusty Baker.

  24. #324
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    I understand that the Boston pen is pretty crowded, but I wonder if non-tendering Rich Hill will prove to be a mistake. Not so much because I think they don't have any other viable lefthanders in the pen, but because I think in a merket that is extremely thin in LHRP and in which team officials have proven to be willing again to massively overpay for RPs, Hill would have had some serious trade value or proven loogy-depth that would allow the Sox to trade one of their other LHRPs. I doubt that this will be a factor in the teams success - short and long term - and there is still a chance they resign him, but I always thought Hill, when healthy was an excellent bullpen piece.
    Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)

    Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)

  25. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dogdaze View Post
    True, but by trading Lester for Myers then signing someone as good as Lester, you gain an excellent prospect with a lot of potential while still having as good of a pitcher.

    I highly doubt Lackey will win 18 to 20, but I do think Buchholz will improve, not saying he'll win 18 to 20 but I think (gut feeling) Buchholz will be above average. I also think theres a good chance Doubrant will improve and I'm hoping that Lackey may be decent.
    Right now there is no #1 starter so I would keep Lester as your #2 LHP starter and search for a #1 guy. I expect Lester to improve with his former pitching coach back in the fold.

    Who do we have who can match up against Verlander or Sabathia in a playoff game?
    "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
    "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

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