Boston Red Sox offseason thread

[Joe Barrie]

Keith law of espn:

"Shane Victorino's three-year, $39 million contract with the Boston Red Sox vaults to the top of the rankings of the worst contracts signed so far this offseason, giving him virtually the same total dollars that Angel Pagan -- a superior player -- will receive in a contract that's a year longer.

The Sox have now squandered a substantial amount of the payroll flexibility they obtained over the summer when they traded Adrian Gonzalez to the Los Angeles Dodgers just to rid themselves of two awful contracts, yet they have little to show for their recent spending spree.

Victorino is a platoon outfielder at this point, and paying him $13 million a year, even with the rapid salary escalation we're seeing this offseason, is mad as pants. His bat speed was noticeably slower in 2012, especially later in the season, and despite being a switch-hitter, he doesn't really hit right-handed pitching:

Against RHP
2012: .230/.295/.332
2011: .271/.333/.456
2010: .235/.306/.386

That's a .244/.311/.390 composite line over 1,388 plate appearances, and at age 32 he's extremely unlikely to suddenly learn how to hit from the left side. Victorino delivers the bulk of his value in the 150 or so plate appearances he gets against left-handed pitching each year and should be platooned against most right-handers, which means the Red Sox just paid $13 million a year for the equivalent of a fourth outfielder.

Victorino remains a good defensive outfielder, more due to his above-average arm and his foot speed than good reads on balls hit to him in center, and he can add value on the bases because he reads pitchers well, even though overall his instincts for the game are poor. He could handle center for a year if the Red Sox chose to trade Jacoby Ellsbury and wanted to give top prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. another full season in the minors before promoting him, and then slide to right or left, with Ryan Kalish in the other corner if he can stay healthy. But if Victorino plays mostly right field, he'll face a higher offensive standard, and they'll likely find themselves looking for a platoon partner for him sooner rather than later, while wondering what better values were available for the money they gave him."

I agree that this signing seems odd; an over-30 player coming off a poor year (which was a contract year). I think that this confirms my feeling that the Red Sox will not contend this year either.

There is still some favorable sentiment about Youk, which I don't understand. He was barely better with the White Sox than he was in Boston last year (you could look it up). I know it seems annoying for me to say it, but Bobby Valentine was right on the money about him.

The Red Sox are still, in my estimation, the modern version of the "Crybaby" Indians of 1940.

[Therwil Flyer]

You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!

[Boston Boxer]

how many days before we sign Hamilton? I say we sign him by Monday. what say you?

[9&10]

how many days before we sign Hamilton? I say we sign him by Monday. what say you?

I HOPE NOT!!! Hamilton is a night out on the town away from collapsing. He's a ticking timebomb and I don't wanna see him with the Red Sox, not for the $$$ or the number of years he'd get. The Victorino and Gomes aquisistions are terrible. I've always liked Mike Napoli since his days with the Angels and while his defense isn't good, he should hit well for us.

I was content with playing the youngsters and languishing at the bottom of the division for another season or two while they Sox developed some of their prospects. They haven't done jack squat regarding their greatest weakness--starting pitching.

[Evangelion]

You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!

Indeed. The only change I've seen is the team is no handing out extremely long-term contracts since none of these deals handed out this winter exceed three years. Still, if there's nothing out there, then don't spend. There's no choice when there's no value on the market. While I liked Napoli and Victorino as players. Both players are coming off down seasons and they land contracts like these? One year? Sure, but three year deals at that price? I believe we had Beltre a couple of seasons ago on a one year deal at lower annual salary and he wasn't as poor as both of these players were last year.

The money seems high, but the team does seem to be avoiding long term contracts.

[Evangelion]

You can look at this from whatever angle you want (and I have) but this is just a bad signing. Everything about it is just bad. My prediction is it won't haunt us (since we got Kalish, and JBJ and others ready soon) but it's a waste of money. hope I'm wrong, but this is really reverting to the old (as in bad) ways! Bad Ben!

Indeed. The only change I've seen is the team is no handing out extremely long-term contracts since none of these deals handed out this winter exceed three years. Still, if there's nothing out there, then don't spend. There's no choice when there's no value on the market. While I liked Napoli and Victorino as players. Both players are coming off down seasons and they land contracts like these? One year? Sure, but three year deals at that price? I believe we had Beltre a couple of seasons ago on a one year deal at lower annual salary and he wasn't as poor as both of these players were last year.

The money seems high, but the team does seem to be avoiding long term contracts.

[dominik]

I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.

[Therwil Flyer]

What I don't understand in the Victorino signing is how they let his price both in terms of years and AAV end up so high? I understand that there is competition for OFers and that prices are inflated because the industry is flush with cash, but there are other options.

Fiscal responsibility doesn't just mean to abstain form 5+ year contracts for the top tier FAs. It also means to be willing to pass on FAs whose market explodes! If a 32 year old player has a significant down year, you sign that player to a value contract (a steal so to speak) not to an expensive multi year deal!

I disagree with Klaw that Victorino is essentially a fourth OFer but I am worried about his 2012 season and whether that is an outlier or the start of a decline. Also, he blows against RHP and is a SHONE*.

*Switch Hitter In Name Only

[Therwil Flyer]

Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!

[9&10]

I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.

Why don't you ask them?

[Therwil Flyer]

I'm wondering why the red sox dump salary by trading away a prime player like gonzalez for not much and then sign washed up old guys to expensive multi year contracts (not extremely long but still 3 years). I could understand doing a rebuild but what they are doing now is not really a rebuild.

I don't think I can fully agree with this statement. First of all, the traded two bad contracts away together with Gonzalez. That is significant. Second, they did get a significant return (Webster and Rubby are our #4 and #5 prospects). Third, I don't fully agree with with the washed up old guys part. I would have thought all three (Gomes, Napoli and Victorino) should have cost less, but Gomes can be a very productive player if used correctly, Napoli maybe a one dimensional player but he he can be a force. Fourth, if they are unwilling to give up prospects/draft picks and unwilling to hand out 5+ years to FAs then the Napolis and Victorinos are what's left. And none of these guys block anyone.

I don't like and don't understand the Victorino signing, but otherwise I think it's a solid offseason so far. Expect them to trade Saltalamacchia, sign a SP later in the off season (the one who's left of the second tier SPs: Marcum, MCCarthy, Jackson...) and add depth. The only way I see them pull the trigger on a major trade is if they are overwhelmed.

The point is, this might not be the sexiest Red Sox team but it has the potential to be a very good one.

[Boston Boxer]

Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!

yes, that was a pretty nifty pick up and the Sox bullpen should be excellent this year. Nice signing!

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Sox close to signing Uehara (finally!). If the Red Sox suck in 2013 it won't be because of the bullpen. Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Melancon, Miller, Bresolw and Aceves plus potentially Bard (assuming Melancon is traded), that should be a damn good bullpen!

Well the bullpen is phenomenal on paper and potential. I guess this is what you do when you lack SP options. Minimalize the innings that are thrown by SP and enlarge your bullpen. And even in AAA we have bullpen guys that would probably be in the MLB right now if they were on an other club. The bullpen is totally loaded.

As for Victorino, I just think its a shame. The offseason was going that well and I was really proud of my Red Sox doing smart undervalued baseball moves. suddendly a really bad contract is handed out and I was really surprised and thought, that the Red Sox would know better. Victorino is a good player for 2/18 or so. Hopefully they know something we don't. But I hoped that when they signed Crawford, Lugo, Renteria, Cameron etc, too. There are obvious signs of decline in Victorino. If this turns out to be a big mistake, we will be able to say, that we knew all along. The Red Sox need a starter now I guess. Still favoring Ellsbury (gone anyway) for Teheran and somebody else.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Sox Roster if the season began today:

SP Lester
SP Buchholz
SP Doubront
SP Lackey
SP De la Rosa
SP Barnes AAA
SP Webster AAA
SP Workman AAA
SP Ranaudo AA

CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
3B Middlebrooks
RF Victorino
LF Gomes/Kalish
C Ross/Saltalamacchia
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco

CL Bailey
RP Bard
RP Uehara
RP Tazawa
RP Breslow
RP Miller
RP Morales SP?
RP Melancon AAA
RP Aceves
RP Mortensen AAA
RP Carpenter AAA
RP Atchison (could return on Milb contract)
RP Hill (could return on milb contract)
RP Wilson AAA

They need a legit SP and also SP depth. Because behind the rotation there are the prospects only. With five catchers on the 40-man roster, I'm pretty sure a trade with catchers involved will be done for SP help. The Yankees need catching desperately...:-) not happening...

[Therwil Flyer]

One American League GM said Victorino “should have been in the $7 million-$11 million range. What they paid him is ridiculous.”

It wasn't me (I'm no GM, haha) but I strongly agree. I still don't have any idea what they see in him.

[raysnbran]

How would you all feel if Youkilis signed with the Yankees? Worse than Damon going there or is that just baseball nowadays, to where they don't take the rivalries as seriously as the fans do?

[Boston Boxer]

Youk is done...so if he wants to sign with the Yankees, then i say good. I soured on him a couple of years ago and he has gone downhill from there.

[SDL]

How would you all feel if Youkilis signed with the Yankees? Worse than Damon going there or is that just baseball nowadays, to where they don't take the rivalries as seriously as the fans do?

He VOLUNTARILY signs with them, he becomes The Enemy as far as I am concerned.

[Blue387]

He VOLUNTARILY signs with them, he becomes The Enemy as far as I am concerned.

I wonder how the fans will greet Youk when he shows up to Fenway Park.

[SDL]

I wonder how the fans will greet Youk when he shows up to Fenway Park.

Shows up in a Yankee uniform he will be booed if he signs with them. I'd lead the boos myself. Get traded involuntarily, not his fault but he CHOOSES to go there...he moves to my Crap List.

[TonyK]

I wonder how the fans will greet Youk when he shows up to Fenway Park.

"Kouy!" Kouy!"

That sounds like"Cuckoo" when you say Youk backwards twice.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

He VOLUNTARILY signs with them, he becomes The Enemy as far as I am concerned.

Whatever Youkilis does, he will allways be obe of my favorite players. We shipped him out of town and he can decide by his own what to do now. I think rejoining Francona would be cool for him.

[Therwil Flyer]

We didn't ship him out. He who shall not be mentioned anymore did. And he should hang for it. I would be very happy for him if he rejoined Tito and has a huge year for him. Can't imagine him in pinstripes. Couldn't imagine booing him.

[Therwil Flyer]

The Red Sox "would be expected to jump in" on Kyle Lohse if he was willing to accept a three-year contract, writes ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes. We heard during the Winter Meetings that the Red Sox and Angels were both interested in Lohse.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...IiTUwdRbL0s.99

source: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...-salaries.html

wait what now?! The RS are interested in signing a 33 year old league average starter who will cost them a draft pick? I assume that is nothing but a rumor. I surely hope it's nothing but a rumor.

[dominik]

source: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...-salaries.html

wait what now?! The RS are interested in signing a 33 year old league average starter who will cost them a draft pick? I assume that is nothing but a rumor. I surely hope it's nothing but a rumor.

over the last 2 years he was not league average but one of the best pitchers of the league (3.11 ERA, 122 ERA+). but still I'm a little skeptical if he is for real. not sure if his BABIP is sustainable especially in fenway.