Boston Red Sox offseason thread

[Therwil Flyer]

over the last 2 years he was not league average but one of the best pitchers of the league (3.11 ERA, 122 ERA+). but still I'm a little skeptical if he is for real. not sure if his BABIP is sustainable especially in fenway.

Over the last two years Lohse also had a SIERA of about 4.2 with a admittedly respectable FIP of about 3.6 to go along with 5.7 k/9 rate (and a really good HR/FB rate). All in all maybe a bit above league average, but i'd rather sign Jackson to a 2/25 contract in than Lohse to a 3/33 contract. I really think that Napoli was a decent signing at market value and that Gomes, while an overpay, was a good signing, I believe Victorino is a bad contract and signing Lohse would fall into the same category (Uehara was a brillinat signing in my mind. I wanted them to get Uehara two years ago. I think he is a stud reliever).

[Zoltan]

Over the last two years Lohse also had a SIERA of about 4.2 with a admittedly respectable FIP of about 3.6 to go along with 5.7 k/9 rate (and a really good HR/FB rate). All in all maybe a bit above league average, but i'd rather sign Jackson to a 2/25 contract in than Lohse to a 3/33 contract. I really think that Napoli was a decent signing at market value and that Gomes, while an overpay, was a good signing, I believe Victorino is a bad contract and signing Lohse would fall into the same category (Uehara was a brillinat signing in my mind. I wanted them to get Uehara two years ago. I think he is a stud reliever).

Overpaying a bit for guys like Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse is alright with me if the contract is only for a couple years at most, in my opinion. Neither has had a season that really jumps out at a guy except for maybe Lohse's 2012, but both are quality 3-4 guys in a rotation, both can eat up innings and can probably get you a sub-4.00 ERA.

[Therwil Flyer]

Overpaying a bit for guys like Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse is alright with me if the contract is only for a couple years at most, in my opinion. Neither has had a season that really jumps out at a guy except for maybe Lohse's 2012, but both are quality 3-4 guys in a rotation, both can eat up innings and can probably get you a sub-4.00 ERA.

I agree, but Lohse will likely be quite a bit more expensive (would be another case of buying high) and cost them a draft pick. It's almost weird how there are no rumors about Edwin Jackson at all. But with Greinke now off the market I think we will see the FA pitching market develop. And there is still the possibility of trading for a starter.

The main problem with Jackson etc is that the Red Sox really don't need a quality 3 to 4 starter as much as they need a no. 1 starter.

[Therwil Flyer]

Overpaying a bit for guys like Edwin Jackson and Kyle Lohse is alright with me if the contract is only for a couple years at most, in my opinion. Neither has had a season that really jumps out at a guy except for maybe Lohse's 2012, but both are quality 3-4 guys in a rotation, both can eat up innings and can probably get you a sub-4.00 ERA.

I agree, but Lohse will likely be quite a bit more expensive (would be another case of buying high) and cost them a draft pick. It's almost weird how there are no rumors about Edwin Jackson at all. But with Greinke now off the market I think we will see the FA pitching market develop. And there is still the possibility of trading for a starter.

The main problem with Jackson etc is that the Red Sox really don't need a quality 3 to 4 starter as much as they need a no. 1 starter.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I agree, but Lohse will likely be quite a bit more expensive (would be another case of buying high) and cost them a draft pick. It's almost weird how there are no rumors about Edwin Jackson at all. But with Greinke now off the market I think we will see the FA pitching market develop. And there is still the possibility of trading for a starter.

The main problem with Jackson etc is that the Red Sox really don't need a quality 3 to 4 starter as much as they need a no. 1 starter.

Want no part of Kyle Lohse. He and his peripherals are no fit for the al east. Enough said.

[Boston Boxer]

so....is the front office going to sign/trade for some pitching anytime soon?

[SwissRedSoxFan]

so....is the front office going to sign/trade for some pitching anytime soon?

I dont see a trade partner right now. Maybe the Dodgers give us Ted Lilly? Or we sign Shaun Marcum. I have no idea if he is healthy. I still would welcome a trade of Ellsbury for a player like Bauer. Dont ask me how. Maybe we can give them a SS. Otherwise ita Aceves and Morales battling for the no. 5 spot...

[Boston Boxer]

I dont see a trade partner right now. Maybe the Dodgers give us Ted Lilly? Or we sign Shaun Marcum. I have no idea if he is healthy. I still would welcome a trade of Ellsbury for a player like Bauer. Dont ask me how. Maybe we can give them a SS. Otherwise ita Aceves and Morales battling for the no. 5 spot...

that sucks

[Therwil Flyer]

How would you all feel if Youkilis signed with the Yankees? Worse than Damon going there or is that just baseball nowadays, to where they don't take the rivalries as seriously as the fans do?

SDL has a new enemy. This is happening. Youkilis has signed with the Yankees.

[Therwil Flyer]

I dont see a trade partner right now. Maybe the Dodgers give us Ted Lilly? Or we sign Shaun Marcum. I have no idea if he is healthy. I still would welcome a trade of Ellsbury for a player like Bauer. Dont ask me how. Maybe we can give them a SS. Otherwise ita Aceves and Morales battling for the no. 5 spot...

Sure just package Boagerts, JBJ, Webster and Branes with Ells and I am sure they have a shot at Bauer. But in all seriousness, The White Sox and Mets are looking for catching help so there might be a fit (Gavin Floyd has been mentioned). Capuano (from LAD) has also been mentioned as a possibility (Sox tried to trade for him in 2011).

Also, if the rumors about the Sox wanting to sign either Hamilton or Swisher (I have trouble believing that though), maybe this means Ellsbury is on his way out which would open a lot of possibilities tradewise (my favorite being shipping out Victorino to the Indians, although I'm nor sure if sign and trade is legal).

Otherwise I assume they will sign the odd man out among Marcum, Lohse, Jackson, Dempster in January (Neither of which is particularly appealing, with Jackson probably being the best).

[9&10]

So. . . Youk signs his one-year deal for $12M with the Yanks. I don't really feel disappointed, either. I loved him when he was with the Sox and I'll always be a fan, but I'm not mad like I was about Damon. Perhaps because a part of me believes he's going to be a $12M mistake.

[SDL]

So. . . Youk signs his one-year deal for $12M with the Yanks. I don't really feel disappointed, either. I loved him when he was with the Sox and I'll always be a fan, but I'm not mad like I was about Damon. Perhaps because a part of me believes he's going to be a $12M mistake.

You can be a fan of his...not me. Once you VOLUNTARILY go THERE you are no better than Benedict Arnold.

Hope selling your soul was worth it, Youk. Tito wanted you for two years.

[9&10]

You can be a fan of his...not me. Once you VOLUNTARILY go THERE you are no better than Benedict Arnold.

Hope selling your soul was worth it, Youk. Tito wanted you for two years.

Haha, well maybe calling myself a fan was a bit much. . . but I likely won't hate him the way I hated Damon.

[raysnbran]

You can be a fan of his...not me. Once you VOLUNTARILY go THERE you are no better than Benedict Arnold.

Hope selling your soul was worth it, Youk. Tito wanted you for two years.

Tito and the Indians offered him 2 years $18M, but he took the $12M for 1 year, maybe thinking he can parlay that into a better deal in 2014.

I think the next time Youk comes into Fenway the "...ooooooohhh" sound coming from the stands will not be "Youuuuuuuuuk" but rather "Booooooooooooooooooooooooo"...

[SDL]

Tito and the Indians offered him 2 years $18M, but he took the $12M for 1 year, maybe thinking he can parlay that into a better deal in 2014.

I think the next time Youk comes into Fenway the "...ooooooohhh" sound coming from the stands will not be "Youuuuuuuuuk" but rather "Booooooooooooooooooooooooo"...

You got that right...Boggs got it, Clemens got it and Damon got it. Youk's gonna get it when he comes into Fenway in a Yankee uni.....

[filihok]

Soooo...Youk is a bad guy for signing with the Yankees after the Red Sox traded him? ok

[SDL]

Soooo...Youk is a bad guy for signing with the Yankees after the Red Sox traded him? ok

You VOLUNTARILY sign with them...you become a traitor as far as I am concerned. Tito wanted him in Cleveland. A lot of us wanted him to come back.

Give Middlebrooks #20 right now!

[filihok]

You VOLUNTARILY sign with them...you become a traitor as far as I am concerned. Tito wanted him in Cleveland. A lot of us wanted him to come back.

Why should Youkilis have loyalty to a team that traded him?

[raysnbran]

Ken Rosenthal speculating that the Napoli signing has hit a snag?

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/b...eopardy-121112

[Therwil Flyer]

I dont see a trade partner right now. Maybe the Dodgers give us Ted Lilly? Or we sign Shaun Marcum. I have no idea if he is healthy. I still would welcome a trade of Ellsbury for a player like Bauer. Dont ask me how. Maybe we can give them a SS. Otherwise ita Aceves and Morales battling for the no. 5 spot...

I guess we can scratch that one of our wish list. I wonder if we could have matched up as well as the Indians in that trade. There are lots of question marks about Bauer, which is probably why he was available, but Choo, as much as I like him, I should assume has less trade value than Ellsbury...

[Boston Boxer]

Soooo...Youk is a bad guy for signing with the Yankees after the Red Sox traded him? ok

I dont give a rats behind who it is. Every Yankee gets booed. If my mother signed with the Yankees, i would boo her as well. I would flip her off, boo her for 9 innings, and she would not get a Christmas card. That is just the way it is.

i could not stand Youk when he was here, and i cant stand him now.

[Therwil Flyer]

Sox reportedly close to a two year deal with Dempster. source: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/th...-two-year-deal

I'm split on Dempster and leaning slightly toward liking that deal (assuming it's 2 years)

The good:
- It's a two year deal.
- He's been a consistently good pitcher over the last 4 years: xFIP of 3.77 3.70 3.74 3.76, SIERA of 3.77 3.79 3.73 3.85
- Over the last 3 years his peripherals compare really nicely with other pitchers such as e.g. Anibal Sanchez:
Sanchez: 587 IP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA, 19.5 LD%, 45.3 GB%, 35.2 FB%, 21.1 K%, 7.3 BB%
Dempster: 590.2 IP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA, 19 LD%, 45.1 GB%, 35.9 FB%, 21.9 K%, 8.7 BB%
- He's been durable, averaging 199 IP per season over the last 5 years.
- He won't cost a draft pick.
- He supposedly is a good clubhouse guy.

The bad:
- He turns 36 next May.
- He's consistently allowed a ton of base runners: career whip of 1.43 (last 4 years: 1.20 1.45 1.32 1.31).
- He may be a NL pitcher (since joining Texas, he has a 5.09 ERA, 4.08 FIP but a .330 babip and 3.86 xFIP). The Angels, Yankees and A's absolutely crushed him in Texas while he had some success against more mediocre AL teams. He averaged less than 6IP per start since joining the Rangers. (then again that's a limited sample size and many said the same thing about Kuroda).


It seems that the Red Sox are very unwilling to part with a draft pick (which is a good thing) and a little to willing to overpay for value players (not such a good thing) on limited years (again a good thing). It remains to be seen whether they stick with that strategy with any further FA signings, but there is clearly a strategy behind the signings we are seeing. Namely, to field a good team in 2013 and 2014 (say 90-win potential) while developing the top talent in the minors (mostly at AA currently). It's not without risk and we'll have to wait till at least the deadline to see if they are willing and able to follow through (dealing Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia and seeing how the prospects and post prospects such as Kalish and Lavarnway develop).

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I guess we can scratch that one of our wish list. I wonder if we could have matched up as well as the Indians in that trade. There are lots of question marks about Bauer, which is probably why he was available, but Choo, as much as I like him, I should assume has less trade value than Ellsbury...

See, we had a shot even without all the prospects you named. To me, ellsbury for 6 years control of bauer in a three team deal would have been a no-brainer.

[Therwil Flyer]

See, we had a shot even without all the prospects you named. To me, ellsbury for 6 years control of bauer in a three team deal would have been a no-brainer.

I agree and wonder why it didn't happen. The Reds are reportedly looking to have Choo in CF (say what now?!) and as their leadoff hitter. If indeed they were looking for a leadoff hitter in CF who is a FA after 2013, why not Ells over Choo? Were they worried about Ells's fragility? Or were the Red Sox not interested? Can't imagine the latter. As you said Ellsbury (plus whatever something equivalent to whatever else the Indian gave up) for Bauer seems like a no brainer.

The question then becomes, would you have done say Ellsbury, Lester, Doubront plus some pieces for Bauer, Odorizzi and Myers (Ignoring the fact that the other teams may have simply prefered the players they got over the Red Sox's alternatives)?

That would have been the ultimate rebuilding move (which would have had some other implications). And the casual Red Sox fans would probably have been outraged, but one may wonder how that would have set up the Sox for the future (keeping in mind that there are always question marks with prospects).

[SDL]

Sox reportedly close to a two year deal with Dempster. source: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/th...-two-year-deal

I'm split on Dempster and leaning slightly toward liking that deal (assuming it's 2 years)

The good:
- It's a two year deal.
- He's been a consistently good pitcher over the last 4 years: xFIP of 3.77 3.70 3.74 3.76, SIERA of 3.77 3.79 3.73 3.85
- Over the last 3 years his peripherals compare really nicely with other pitchers such as e.g. Anibal Sanchez:
Sanchez: 587 IP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA, 19.5 LD%, 45.3 GB%, 35.2 FB%, 21.1 K%, 7.3 BB%
Dempster: 590.2 IP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA, 19 LD%, 45.1 GB%, 35.9 FB%, 21.9 K%, 8.7 BB%
- He's been durable, averaging 199 IP per season over the last 5 years.
- He won't cost a draft pick.
- He supposedly is a good clubhouse guy.

The bad:
- He turns 36 next May.
- He's consistently allowed a ton of base runners: career whip of 1.43 (last 4 years: 1.20 1.45 1.32 1.31).
- He may be a NL pitcher (since joining Texas, he has a 5.09 ERA, 4.08 FIP but a .330 babip and 3.86 xFIP). The Angels, Yankees and A's absolutely crushed him in Texas while he had some success against more mediocre AL teams. He averaged less than 6IP per start since joining the Rangers. (then again that's a limited sample size and many said the same thing about Kuroda).


It seems that the Red Sox are very unwilling to part with a draft pick (which is a good thing) and a little to willing to overpay for value players (not such a good thing) on limited years (again a good thing). It remains to be seen whether they stick with that strategy with any further FA signings, but there is clearly a strategy behind the signings we are seeing. Namely, to field a good team in 2013 and 2014 (say 90-win potential) while developing the top talent in the minors (mostly at AA currently). It's not without risk and we'll have to wait till at least the deadline to see if they are willing and able to follow through (dealing Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia and seeing how the prospects and post prospects such as Kalish and Lavarnway develop).

You sure?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon...-deal/1755353/