Good, let him go. We've already wasted enough money this offseason.
Registered User
Good, let him go. We've already wasted enough money this offseason.
#firelarrylucchino
Nothing's sure in mlb, but:Originally Posted by SDL
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.
Others confirm.
The report you posted is a couple of days old and apparently things changed since then (Probably Dempster realizing that nobody was willing to give him 3 years).
At that price, I like the deal quite a bit (even if there's the potential for him to be a bust).
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
Geesh, so I guess the Red Sox wanted to give out another lousy contract besides Victorino's. Dumpster is an NL pitcher.
#firelarrylucchino
Why so negative? What should the Sox have done?
Dempster is another unsexy but solid signing like (Not Cody) Ross, Gomes, Uehara, Napoli (assuming he signs), and to a lesser degree Victorino. The Red Sox upgraded several positions without sacrificing any prospects or committing to any long term deals.
I guess the whole Dempster is a NL pitcher is a pretty common conception but why? His sample with Texas is pretty limited and if you look beyond ERA (say e.g. his xFIP) he didn't look bad at all. In fact, really the only thing that changed significantly between 2012 Dempster with the Cubs and 2012 Dempster with the Rangers are his babip and LOB% (and accordingly his ERA). All other peripherals as well as his velocity and pitch values remained pretty much identical. His ERA (if one cares about ERA) vs the AL before joining the Rangers was 3.00 from 2009 to 2012 (also in a limited sample of course).
I'm not sure I understand the general perception that if a pitcher isn't throwing in the upper 90's he can't succeed in the AL East. Kuroda seemed to be just fine, didn't he? Yes, his ERA will likely go up compared to his numbers with the Cubs. That seems to be the case with pretty much all pitchers going form National to American.
Also, I think every signing should be evaluated in terms of what else was out there. The Sox could have signed Greinke (6/148) and Hamilton (5/126). But wouldn't that just be repeating the mistakes that got us in this situation of high payroll while not contending that we were stuck in the last two+ years? It may not be sexy, but solid short term deals to add complements to an existing core of players while developing from within is the best strategy for the Red Sox. And that strategy includes signing good but not great players.
Only time will tell but compared to where they were on Nov 1st, the have upgraded from Sweeney to Gomes, from Ross to Victorino, from Loney to Napoli, from Matsuzaka to Dempster and from Hill to Uehara. That's about 8 WAR (based on 2012) right there. We'll see how they perform next year and beyond and what other moves the Red Sox will make (such as trading Salty), but I am actually fairly excited for 2013. This is a legitimate 90 win team which means they are in contention for the wild card spot and the playoffs (and that is in the first after the two most embarrassing seasons in recent history).
I really don't get all the negativity in Red Sox Nation.
Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-13-2012 at 01:33 PM.
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
Like it. He can get guys out and puts stability into our fringy rotation. Good contract too. If Victorino would have signed with the Indians, I would be very pleased with the Red Sox this offseason. Now I'm at 70%.
I know you're watching, Si. Bu.
#firelarrylucchino
To follow up on my last post, let's imagine for a moment that the Red Sox follow up with some additional FA/trade moves. Say for example the package Salty with a RP to get someone like Gavin Floyd (another not great but good pitcher). Let's also assume they find some depth for RF, SP, RP. That would give the Sox something like:
lineup:
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Ortiz
Middlebrooks
Napoli
Victorino
Gomes/Nava (or Kalish if he wins the job in ST)
Ross/Lavarnway (or Salty if he is still around)
Iglesias/? (how about we trade Melancon for Lowrie?)
Murderers' row? Hardly, but that's a solid lineup.
Rotation:
Lester
Buchholz
Dempster
Floyd
Lackey/Doubront
The '95 Braves? Don't think so but a massive upgrade over the 2012 rotation.
Bullpen:
Bailey
Uehara
Tazawa
Breslow
Miller
Morales
Aceves
(potentially Melancon and Bard)
Make sure your SP gets through 6 with the lead and you basically won the game? Yes absolutely (disclaimer: predicting bullpens is nearly impossible due to the extremely high year to year variation.)
Have the Red Sox overpayed for Victorino? Yes. Have they overpayed for Ross and Napoli? Maybe a little. For Dempster and Uehara? I don't think so. Sure they lack a true ace (a la Pedro) and a true #3 hitter (a la Manny Ramirez). But this is, if appropriately managed, a very good team that has the potential to win 90 games and make the playoffs.
There is no guarantee, and a number of pieces will have to fall in place. But I think if the plan was to build a contender without sacrificing the development from within, then I think they are on the right track. Seriously, Red Sox Nation, stop with all the damn negativity!
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Baseball Fever Member
The team approach this winter seems to be offering short-term contracts to contend next year. While I don't love all the deals offer this winter. At the very least, they're not locked into a single player this winter beyond three years. Honestly, Victorino the only deal I dislike quite a bit. The rest of the deals seem quite fine. I do wish the team can add a starter who's likely to be reliable and dependable. Dempster been good, but he's coming from the NL and wasn't as good in AL last year when he went to Texas, but for two year deal, it doesn't seem like a bad move and see if he produce.
#firelarrylucchino
And who in RF then? (Not that I'm happy with the contract Voctorino got, but somebody has to play out there)
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
#firelarrylucchino
Except his peripherals suggest he's been the exact same pitcher with the Cubs and the Rangers last year!
I'm not suggesting he will be great next year or the next two. It's likely we'll see a spike of about half an ERA point, but people need to stop with the NL pitcher thing because his ERA wasn't good in a limited sample in Texas.
Otherwise, I completely agree with you!
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
Ouch. another ridiculous contract handed out by the Red Sox...
#firelarrylucchino
What makes this a ridiculous contract, if I may ask?
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
Hey I'm not advocating that we should have gotten Grienke or Hamilton (both ridiculous contracts) but $39M for Shane Victorino? $26M for Dempster? The Napoli deal wasn't actually too bad but now it looks like he might not even come here if they can't get things straightened out.
I would have loved to see the Red Sox take a flyer on Grady Sizemore. I don't care that he plays CF like Ellsbury, he could have played one of the corner OF positions just fine. There were other more affordable options out there and the bottom line is that we'll be lucky to get out of the cellar in 2013 with the guys they signed. I would have rather seen 'em sign a couple guys on the cheap for a year apiece than those guys.
#firelarrylucchino
I entirely agree that the 3/39 for Victorino was a significant overpay and have stated so multiple times. But at least it's limited in years. So we basically agree there. However, how anyone can honestly state that 2/26 is an overpay for Dempster I don't understand. Sure he is not a great pitcher and comes with some question marks, but what do you think is fair value for Dempster? We'll have to wait and see what others get once they actually sign but word is Sanches was offered 5/75, Lohse has been offered or at least discussed 3-year deals with different teams and is holding out for 4. Edwin Jackson accepted a sort of pillow contract last year and is unlikely go for less than 3 years.
Sure, we can argue that it is not necessarily the best strategy to sign SPs in December but rather to wait the market out and sign the odd man out (think of this year's Kuroda), but that strategy doesn't always work and the Red Sox are in serious need for a rotation upgrade. Remember all the buy low pitchers we signed the last few years, the Smoltzes and Cooks etc? Not a single one of them worked out. Not a single one!
Also, who exactly are the more affordable options? Sure you sometimes can catch lightning in a bottle, like we did with Ross last year. But there is no guarantee you can identify these guys. Or put differently, most of the time the cheaper options are cheaper because the just are not as good. But, really, who is there who could give you Napoli's production for less. Who gives you Dempster's production at less than 2/26.5?
Don't get me wrong. You may have a point and I, by all account, have been terribly wrong before. But I'm having a hard time finding much more value on the SP market than Dempster on a 2 year deal, I love the Uehara signing, and like Napoli iff there are no health concerns.
As for Sizemore, it was reported that several teams inquired about his availability (the Sox may have been one of them). However, he underwent surgery and will miss the start of the season. Also, Sizemore while interesting would have required them to give up some prospect(s).
Whether the players they signed are enough to get them out of the cellar or even turn them into a 90 win team as I suggest, we'll see in a couple of months.
Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-13-2012 at 05:36 PM.
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
#firelarrylucchino
On Napoli:
Will Carroll @injuryexpert
Hearing that the Napoli deal back in negotiations, with team asking Napoli to take less years but same AAV. Swisher Plan B.
Carroll is SI writer and the injury expert there, so there may be something to this. One way or another this is very concerning as Napoli is a major piece to the Red Sox's offseason!
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
2/$26M is ok for Napoli I guess, as long as we can get similar production out of him as he's demonstrated in the past.
US Air Force Retired
nothing seems to go go smoothly for the sox front office. Its like an episode of the 3 Stooges.
2004 & 2007
I'm not super thrilled about signing Dempster, but I'm not completely disapointed. I think he has potential to be decent, but I guess for me the jury will be out on how he performs.
2004 & 2007
I would have made those trades. A gamble? Absolutely, but one I think may have panned out. I guess we'll see how well Myers, Bauer and Odorizzi develop but my guess is they'll be very good.
#firelarrylucchino
With Anibal Sanchez getting 5/80 and more and more reports about Edwin Jackson looking at a deal in the 5/60 range, the Dempster deal is starting to look better and better!
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
#firelarrylucchino
BTW, Excellent article of where the Red Sox are at: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...ed-sox-offseas
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
US Air Force Retired
that is a good team. not spectacular, but a solid team. We dont need a lot of big names to play well...we just need the guys on the team to do their job and play baseball. I doubt we are done adding players, but that is a team worth rooting for
#firelarrylucchino
I wholeheartedly agree. I read a comment from some guy - I think it was in the globe comment section - who was basically arguing that the FO is useless for not signing Greinke and other "star caliber" players because this "failed strategy" will not allow us to compete with teams like the O's and Rays. Are these guys for real? Do some fans really not realize just how incoherent such arguments are. Aren't the Rays the prime example that you don't need to sign big star power but develop from within? Are the Orioles (at least the 2012 version) not the best example that you don't need star caliber players to be successful but solid production from top to bottom? Are the Red Sox not the no 1 example that just outspending everyone and signing stars to big long term contracts can be a disastrous path? For real?
As Boxer said, this isnot a spectacular team but a team worth rooting for. And one with an exciting farm too. I hope they are successful so they can continue to follow the new old startegy!
Last edited by Therwil Flyer; 12-14-2012 at 04:47 PM.
Watching Derek Jeter make 40 defensive plays and then watching Adam Everett make 40 defensive plays at the same position is sort of like watching video of Barbara Bush dancing at the White House, and then watching Demi Moore dancing in Striptease. (Bill James)
Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power. If he can continue to hit .260 or so, he'll be useful, and he probably has a future as a backup infielder. (Keith Law)
Registered User
To clarify, we haven't acquired Gavin Floyd yet, have we?
Personally, I don't care if we have superstars on the roster; as long as the guys we have can play consistently, that's all that matters to me. The other day I was thinking back to 1988 when we had Burks, Greenwell, and Benzinger in our outfield and being excited to turn on the radio and listen to what spectacular thing they were going to do that night. It was a great time to be a Red Sox fan and aside from 2004 and 2007, those were my happiest times as a fan. For better or worse, I was hoping we were going to go with more of a youth movement this coming season. Hopefully, these guys won't disappoint.
Baseball Fever Member
I'm not saying "He's no good. NL pitchers to AL never work!" I just didn't like what I saw after he went to Texas. Not like he's moving into a pitcher friendly park either. He got hammer in two starts for 8 runs after coming to Texas, so those two starts did increase his ERA quite a bit. Still, I don't hate the signing and, for two years, I thought it was a reasonable signing. I personally like it signing and it's not like pitcher coming from NL always fails. Just look at Kuroda.
If you're not willing to take a chance and just play it safe, you'll never win again. I don't even think Dempster taking a giant leap of faith. Not like that deal they handed to Victorino.
Registered User
That's true, but I don't think this offseason was the time to take any chances, not with that free agent crop. If anything, I would have liked to have seen 'em sign a few guys to one-year contracts and let if fly, and wait until we see a better free agent crop. With the additions we made, we're still likely to finish 4th or 5th in the division.
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