2012-2013 Phillies Offseason Thread

[philliesfiend55]

Can Lance Berkman possibly be a Phillies target for a one-year deal. Can he still play outfield and how well has he recovered from injuries that limited him to only about 30 games in 2012.
Is it GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s grand scheme to acquire both Upton brothers. - BJ for Centerfield this offseason via Free Agancy and to trade for Justin to fill a corner outfield spot in the near future (probably before the start of the 2014 season). The Phils are probably one of the only teams that could pay the Upton Brothers' salaries simultaneously and still meet the rest of the team's payroll..

[Ben Grimm]

Diamondbacks want a legitimate MLB-ready SS for Upton. Unfortunately, the Phillies don't have anything that resembles that. I think the only way the Phils could swing something is to get a 3rd team involved and even they'd have to match up.

As for Berkman, he was a nice story in 2011. But his knees are torn up and since he was hired by Rice University, he'll need to be bowled over by an offer. Personally, I think an AL team would be willing to pay a bit more if only because of the DH option.

Not too long ago, Lance mentioned that he'd want to get paid as an everyday 3-hole hitter. I'm assuming that means $ in the area of what he made last year ($12M) but he may want a 2nd year attached as well. As much as I like his switch-hitting ability, I'm not into giving years to another aging player.

[philliesfiend55]

From what I understand, Lance Berkman is a non-paid Volunteer Assistant coach at Rice University, so it won't take much of an offer for him o delay the start of his college coaching career (if that is what his post-playing days objective is).
If he is statistically oriented in the least, Berkman will want to play two more years, until age 38, in order to reach the 2,000 games, 2,000 hits, and 400 home runs milestones.

[philliesfiend55]

The Phillies added four players to their 40 man roster (currently at 38) since today was the deadline to submit a 40 man (or close to it) roster for 2013. The roster currently doesn't have to be at exactly 40 because Free agent signings,Trade Acquisitions at the Winter Meetings or even later, and Rule 5 draft picks can add to the roster.

The Phillies new 40 man roster now has 8 players with no major league experience. In addition to Cesar Hernandez (2B), Sebastian Valle (C), Tyson Gillies (OF) and J.C. Ramirez (P) - holdovers from the 2012 fourty man roster who have not yet played in the major leagues, the four added today to next year's 40 man roster, who have not yet made their major league debuts are:
Zach Collier (Of),Trevor May (P), Ethan Martin (P) and Jonathan Pettibone (P).

Of these eight I'd guess that all but Collier might see action with the Phillies at some point in 2013,since these seven have all played at the AAA or AA level in 2012 and all may be ticketed to start next season at AAA-Lehigh Valley. Collier is a first round pick that has been disappointing thus far, but showed enough potential last year at High A Clearwater that the parent club does not want to give up on him at this point.

Some of their most promising players prospects withonly a few years in the minor leagues do not have to be protected in order for the Phillies to retain control of them such as Cody Asche (3B),Tyler Knigge (P) and Leandro Castro (OF).

Other players who weren't protected such as Cody Overbeck (1B) and Jiwan James (OF) may now have sufficient time in the minor leagues that they may be vulnerable to the Rule 5 Draft in the first week of December.

[Ben Grimm]

From what I understand, Lance Berkman is a non-paid Volunteer Assistant coach, so it won't take much of an offer for him o delay the start of his college coaching career (if that is what his post-playing days objective is).
If he is statistically oriented in the least, Berkman will want to play two more years, until age 38, in order to reach the 2,000 games, 2,000 hits, and 400 home runs milestones.

Not much of an offer, huh? Here's part of an interview when he was mentioned as possibly returning to the Astros.

- - - - - - - - - - -

If Berkman does decide to keep playing in the wake of recurring knee problems, regular playing time and money seem to be Berkman's primary concerns for not just the Astros, but any team looking for his services.

"It just depends on what kind of money they are talking about," Berkman said. "Am I going to come back for a couple of million bucks, no. If they want to pay me close to what I feel like my value is in terms of what I bring to the table...if they're going to ask me to be there and hit third and play every day and DH every day, I want to be compensated like a guy who is a Major League three-hole hitter."

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...0ugkXqZwgQQ.99

[Ben Grimm]

Of these eight I'd guess that all but Collier might see action with the Phillies at some point in 2013,since these seven have all played at the AAA or AA level in 2012 and all may be ticketed to start next season at AAA-Lehigh Valley. Collier is a first round pick that has been disappointing thus far, but showed enough potential last year at High A Clearwater that the parent club does not want to give up on him at this point.

What may have saved Collier was his recent stint in the AFL. He showed much better plate discipline (way too many Ks in the minors for his lack of power so far), and put together a slash-line of .371/.461/.532 . He should start out in Clearwater next season with a possible move to Reading if he can use this AFL experience to get his game together.

[Ben Grimm]

Former Phillie, Hector Luna has agreed to a one-year, $450,000 contract with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan's Central League.

He could hit 30+ homers over there.

[Ben Grimm]

Free agent, Koji Uehara, has been named recently (by Ken Rosenthal IIRC) as a possible target for the Phillies as a set-up man. Even though he's only been in the league for a few seasons, he's soon to be 38 years old. But his "stuff" is pretty good.

2.89
0.921
9.8 K/9IP
231 K
29 BB

His K/BB rate is really strong. He was injured last year for a bit, but seems to have been fairly healthy prior to that. Estimated cost looks to be a good bit less than Mike Adams though it may require a 2-year deal to get something done. I'm not a believer in putting too much money into the pen, but we did see this season how hit-n-miss relievers can be - especially inexperienced ones. Ruben stressed last offseason that he wanted more veterans in the pen, and while going cheaper with Qualls hardly worked out, I can see him investing more cash into one this season.

[Ben Grimm]

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com was told by agents who have spoken with the Phillies that Josh Hamilton is "no longer on their list."

B.J. Upton or Cody Ross always seemed like more realistic options for the Phils, though general manager Ruben Amaro wouldn't rule out a marquee signing if it's the right fit. "I don't know that yet," he said. "We haven't been given a real budget. I know it's not unlimited, but that's not usually how we work. There are limitations, but each situation is unique, in and of itself. We didn't budget for Cliff Lee. But we signed Cliff Lee. We haven't budgeted for a bunch of things we've done. Each situation is different."

Stark also reported that the Phillies "batted around the idea" of an extension for Roy Halladay but put an end to the talks after he started having shoulder issues.

The preliminary talks involved keeping Doc in Philly beyond 2013 when his contract expires and pushing his average annual value up to around $24 million, which is what Cliff Lee is getting paid. General manager Ruben Amaro said they've "kicked it around, but we tabled it," though he wouldn't rule out resuming talks eventually. "I guess it's still possible," said Amaro. "But a lot has to do with how he feels and how he performs. So that's a decision and a conversation that would probably have to go into the spring, and maybe into the season."

[philliesfiend55]

[QUOTE=Ben Grimm;2089290]Not much of an offer, huh? Here's part of an interview when he was mentioned as possibly returning to the Astros.

- - - - - - - - - - -

If Berkman does decide to keep playing in the wake of recurring knee problems, regular playing time and money seem to be Berkman's primary concerns for not just the Astros, but any team looking for his services. - Ben Grimm.

Berkman sounds like he's another Kenny Lofton. After having a pretty good year with Texas and Cleveland and being a part of the Indians post-season run (with a satisfying victory over the Yankees and their flying insect-plagued reliever, Joba Chamberlain in one playoff round in 2007, a 40-year-old Lofton found that offseason that the only team bidding for his services was the Indians. Rather than take an offer in the 1.5 million range, which he considered an insult to A GUY WITH A ,299 LIFETIME AVERAGE AND OVER 600 STOLEN BASES, LOFTON EFFECTIVELY PRICED HIMSELF OUT OF THE MARKET AND WOULDN'T ADJUST his thinking to his current market value. LOFTON never played another major league game (He'll make his first appearence on the Hall Of Fame ballot in the pending election for the Class of 2013.)
-Berkman runs the same risk, but since he'll only turn 37 next year, he may yet find a taker. Even with his 2012 salary of well over $10 million, If someone offers him $ 4 Mil. for a one-year contract for 2013, I'd say that's an offer he should accept, since he's coming off such an injury-plagued season. He may not think so now, but he's going to have to prove himself all over again!

[philliesfiend55]

Free agent, Koji Uehara, has been named recently (by Ken Rosenthal IIRC) as a possible target for the Phillies as a set-up man. Even though he's only been in the league for a few seasons, he's soon to be 38 years old. But his "stuff" is pretty good.

2.89
0.921
9.8 K/9IP
231 K
29 BB

His K/BB rate is really strong. He was injured last year for a bit, but seems to have been fairly healthy prior to that. Estimated cost looks to be a good bit less than Mike Adams though it may require a 2-year deal to get something done. I'm not a believer in putting too much money into the pen, but we did see this season how hit-n-miss relievers can be - especially inexperienced ones. Ruben stressed last offseason that he wanted more veterans in the pen, and while going cheaper with Qualls hardly worked out, I can see him investing more cash into one this season.

Signing Uehara, who some people jokingly refer to as "O'Hara" will be a good move for the Phillies as long as: NIck Swisher either stays in the American League or the Phillies sign him. Swisher hits Koji like he owns him and that includes a couple of big walk-off home runs against him.

[philliesfiend55]

The Winter Meetings will be here before you know it (Dec. 3 -6), in fact they will be concluding exactly two weeks from today (Thanksgiving). Highlights will include: Dec. 3 - announcement of Hall Of Fame selections from the start of organized baseball era in the 1870s through 1946. Dec. 4 - Hall Of Fame Writer is announced. Dec. 5 - HallOf FaME bROADCASTER SELECTION IS ANNOUNCED and Dec. 6 - Rule 5 - Major & Minor League Drafts are held. Of course throughout this whole period trade proposals will be swirling about and some Free Agents may even visit the Meetings (held this year in Nashville, TN) and General Managers will make their pitches to them..

[philliesfiend55]

It's obvious that the Phillies have to bolster their bullpen in the long relief and set-up man areas. Why are almost all the options mentoined so far guys like Uehara who are 35 plus. Are there no younger relievers who have completed the requisite six years for free agency who are 30 or under.
As Bruce Springsteen is fond of shouting at breaks between songs at his concerts, "Is there anybody Alive out there?"

[Ben Grimm]

I loved when Kenny Lofton played here. He was by far my favorite AL player in the 90s, and while he certainly wasn't the same with the Phils in '05, he still could play at a fairly high level. I think what may have made Lofton "outprice" himself is the fact that the Rangers blew him over with a $6M deal when they signed him in 2007. Considering he was just as effective that year as he was the previous one (which led to the overpay), maybe a 75% decrease in salary was a bit of a slap in the face.

[Ben Grimm]

Here's the list of FA relievers. Most are around the 35 age, and the few younger ones either come with question marks or injury issues.

Closers
Jonathan Broxton (29)
Matt Capps (29)
Ryan Madson (32)
Brett Myers (32)
Mariano Rivera (43)
Joakim Soria (29)
Rafael Soriano (33) - declined qualifying offer
Jose Valverde (35)

Right-handed relievers
Jeremy Accardo (31)
Mike Adams (34)
Collin Balester (27)
Miguel Batista (42)
Shawn Camp (37)
Todd Coffey (32)
Jose Contreras (41)
Francisco Cordero (38)
Juan Cruz (34)
Joey Devine (29)
Chad Durbin (35)
Kyle Farnsworth (37)
Jason Frasor (35)
Chad Gaudin (30)
Kevin Gregg (35)
Jason Grilli (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (38)
Livan Hernandez (38)
Jason Isringhausen (40)
Bobby Jenks (32)
Brad Lidge (36)
Matt Lindstrom (33)
Kameron Loe (31)
Shane Loux (33)
Mark Lowe (30)
Brandon Lyon (33)
Jeff Manship (28)
Kyle McClellan (29)
Guillermo Mota (39)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (29)
Vicente Padilla (35)
Brad Penny (35)
Chad Qualls (34)
Ramon Ramirez (31)
Jon Rauch (34)
Francisco Rodriguez (31)
Takashi Saito (43)
Koji Uehara (38)
Jose Veras (32)
Kyle Waldrop (27)
Jamey Wright (38)

Left-handed relievers
Fernando Abad (27)
Sean Burnett (30)
Tim Byrdak (39)
Randy Choate (37)
Dana Eveland (29)
Pedro Feliciano (35) - $4.5MM club option
Brian Fuentes (37)
Mike Gonzalez (35)
Alex Hinshaw (30)
J.P. Howell (28)
Will Ohman (35)
J.C. Romero (37)
George Sherrill (36)
Hisanori Takahashi (38)

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...GLV8e2LKxkY.99

[philliesfiend55]

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com was told by agents who have spoken with the Phillies that Josh Hamilton is "no longer on their list."

B.J. Upton or Cody Ross always seemed like more realistic options for the Phils, though general manager Ruben Amaro wouldn't rule out a marquee signing if it's the right fit. "I don't know that yet," he said. "We haven't been given a real budget. I know it's not unlimited, but that's not usually how we work. There are limitations, but each situation is unique, in and of itself. We didn't budget for Cliff Lee. But we signed Cliff Lee. We haven't budgeted for a bunch of things we've done. Each situation is different."

Stark also reported that the Phillies "batted around the idea" of an extension for Roy Halladay but put an end to the talks after he started having shoulder issues.

The preliminary talks involved keeping Doc in Philly beyond 2013 when his contract expires and pushing his average annual value up to around $24 million, which is what Cliff Lee is getting paid. General manager Ruben Amaro said they've "kicked it around, but we tabled it," though he wouldn't rule out resuming talks eventually. "I guess it's still possible," said Amaro. "But a lot has to do with how he feels and how he performs. So that's a decision and a conversation that would probably have to go into the spring, and maybe into the season."

Halladay is 199-100 with over 2,000 strikeouts - Great career numbers, but General Managers are sensitive to even the slightest dowturn in performance. His 11-8 mark in 2012, with a fairly long stint on the Disabled List just wan't vintage Halladay. If the downturn continues in '13 then surely RAJr. is not going to shell out the type of money Ben Grimm mentioned to keep Roy in Philly after his current contract expires..

[philliesfiend55]

Here's the list of FA relievers. Most are around the 35 age, and the few younger ones either come with question marks or injury issues.

Closers
Jonathan Broxton (29)
Matt Capps (29)
Ryan Madson (32)
Brett Myers (32)
Mariano Rivera (43)
Joakim Soria (29)
Rafael Soriano (33) - declined qualifying offer
Jose Valverde (35)

Right-handed relievers
Jeremy Accardo (31)
Mike Adams (34)
Collin Balester (27)
Miguel Batista (42)
Shawn Camp (37)
Todd Coffey (32)
Jose Contreras (41)
Francisco Cordero (38)
Juan Cruz (34)
Joey Devine (29)
Chad Durbin (35)
Kyle Farnsworth (37)
Jason Frasor (35)
Chad Gaudin (30)
Kevin Gregg (35)
Jason Grilli (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (38)
Livan Hernandez (38)
Jason Isringhausen (40)
Bobby Jenks (32)
Brad Lidge (36)
Matt Lindstrom (33)
Kameron Loe (31)
Shane Loux (33)
Mark Lowe (30)
Brandon Lyon (33)
Jeff Manship (28)
Kyle McClellan (29)
Guillermo Mota (39)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (29)
Vicente Padilla (35)
Brad Penny (35)
Chad Qualls (34)
Ramon Ramirez (31)
Jon Rauch (34)
Francisco Rodriguez (31)
Takashi Saito (43)
Koji Uehara (38)
Jose Veras (32)
Kyle Waldrop (27)
Jamey Wright (38)

Left-handed relievers
Fernando Abad (27)
Sean Burnett (30)
Tim Byrdak (39)
Randy Choate (37)
Dana Eveland (29)
Pedro Feliciano (35) - $4.5MM club option
Brian Fuentes (37)
Mike Gonzalez (35)
Alex Hinshaw (30)
J.P. Howell (28)
Will Ohman (35)
J.C. Romero (37)
George Sherrill (36)
Hisanori Takahashi (38)

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/0...GLV8e2LKxkY.99

This list confirms what a poster on a Phillies website has maintained for quite some time - That relievers are late bloomers, particularly Closers.

[Ben Grimm]

Halladay is 199-100 with over 2,000 strikeouts - Great career numbers, but General Managers are sensitive to even the slightest dowturn in performance. His 11-8 mark in 2012, with a fairly long stint on the Disabled List just wan't vintage Halladay. If the downturn continues in '13 then surely RAJr. is not going to shell out the type of money Ben Grimm mentioned to keep Roy in Philly after his current contract expires..

Yes. This is a big year for both Roy and Ruben when it comes to Roy's contract. Ideally, Roy's lights-out and pitches enough innings to simply have his one-year option vest for $20M. Unfortunately, because he could only go 150 or so innings last year, he'll need to go 260 for that to happen in '13. Basically, he'd need to match his CYA years in both performance and innings and that's a bit much to ask from a pitcher turning 36 years old.

Even if Roy only pitches like "average Halladay", he'd be better than most #2s on teams' rotations. That alone will garner high interest on the FA market next year, and being that he won the CYA and came in 2nd only a year ago, it's recent enough for teams to offer a multi-year deal in the hopes they'd get one of those great seasons out of him. I don't like the risk for this team. Hamels is now the long-term #1 and this franchise has spent years developing pitching talent. Somebody needs to come up in the next year or so and show some kind of payoff. And I'm not talking about the Worleys and Cloyds of the world. I mean one of these perceived top of the rotation types to finally show something.

[Ben Grimm]

The Phils signed one-time prospect Josh Fields to a minor league contract.

Fields came up through the White Sox system and was looked at as the 3B to take over for Joe Crede, who was dealing with injuries and nearing free agency. He had some pop in his bat, but had trouble with pitch recognition. The Sox learned quickly that Fields also couldn't play 3B very well defensively, so they began shifting him around. Last year, he was in the Dodgers system playing AAA ball. His offensive numbers were decent, but that should be expected from a 29 year old with MLB experience in the PCL.

He looks now to be simply OF depth who, if gets hot, can maybe get called up in an emergency.

[philliesfiend55]

With the signing of Josh Fields, I guess the Phillies annual acquisition of AAAA players has begun. Some of these players have been back and forth between the majors and AAA with the frequency of a Yo-Yo and all have at least limited major leagues experience. These players are signed with the AAA-Lehigh Valley club particularly in mind, and since they have some major league track record, calling them up to replace injured or underperforming players on the Opening Day 25 man roster is often considered preferable to rushing a young guy to the majors as a temporary replacement with no major leagues experience whatsoever and testing him in the middle of a major league pennant race. Eventually patterns emerage and these players can be filed under the following categories:

Some guys don't work out at all and never get even a cup of coffee with the Phillies : Luis Montanez, Scott Posednik, Scottt Elarton, Pat Misch, Dontrelle Willis.
Some guys produce some limited returns at the MLB level for the Phils: Hector Luna, Jason Pridie, Cody Ransom. Juan Perez, Raul Valdes, Dane Sardinha, Brian Sanches.
Other guys succeed and make themselves 'Phixtures in Philly' : Eric Kratz, Kevin Fransden.
Still other guys pass under the Phillies radar, get released and wind up succeeding in the majors elsewhere: Jason Grilli.

As I said at the start of this post. - The Phillies' AAAA Talent Acqusition portion of the offseason has officially begun.

[philliesfiend55]

Josh Fields hit 23 home runs as a White Sox rookie in 2006. Apparently, Americn League pitchers figured him out the next year and he has stumbled badly since then. In parts of five seasons ( Chi.WhiteSsox 2006-2009 & KC Royals 2010) he hasn't impressed much since his rookie year. Major league seniority-wise he's at just 2 years, 159 days (13 days short of a full 3 years' seniority credit),so you can see that he hasn't spent any full seasons in the majors, just partial ones. He hasn't appeared in a major leagues game since 2010 and his lifetime average is just .234. He played a decent third base and that's why he was signed, for depth at that position. Fields turns 30 about three weeks from now, on December 14.

[Ben Grimm]

Interesting note from a writer for the Denver Post...

Troy Renck‏@TroyRenck

If Braves get Upton should help clarify/intensify market for Fowler. Phils, Nats might emerge but Rox asking price will be very high

I like Fowler. In fact, i see him having a big breakout year (ex: 25/25) with a .300 average once again.... IF HE"S PLAYING IN COORS.

Dexter seems like a typical high-altitude player as his splits show:

Home OPS - .882
Road OPS - .698

He can play CF, but I'm not going to be sold on the overall numbers we'd be shown once (if) a deal is done. It also depends of course on what the Phils would be giving up, because his overall road numbers are very pedestrian.

[jalbright]

Interesting note from a writer for the Denver Post...

Troy Renck‏@TroyRenck

If Braves get Upton should help clarify/intensify market for Fowler. Phils, Nats might emerge but Rox asking price will be very high

I like Fowler. In fact, i see him having a big breakout year (ex: 25/25) with a .300 average once again.... IF HE"S PLAYING IN COORS.

Dexter seems like a typical high-altitude player as his splits show:

Home OPS - .698
Road OPS - .882

He can play CF, but I'm not going to be sold on the overall numbers we'd be shown once (if) a deal is done. It also depends of course on what the Phils would be giving up, because his overall road numbers are very pedestrian.

Did you switch the home and road labels for OPS? If you did, what you wrote makes perfect sense. If not, the stats contradict what you say.

[Ben Grimm]

Oops. My bad - too early in the morning

He hits well in Coors, but not all that great outside of those confines. Hey, if it costs something like Kendrick, I'm all for it. But I highly doubt that's what they want. They're surely looking for a starter with upside closer to being MLB ready.

Annnnd, now it looks like I somehow deleted my original while editing. Here's what it should have read...
% _ % _% _ % _ %

Interesting note from a writer for the Denver Post...

Troy Renck‏@TroyRenck

If Braves get Upton should help clarify/intensify market for Fowler. Phils, Nats might emerge but Rox asking price will be very high

I like Fowler. In fact, i see him having a big breakout year (ex: 25/25) with a .300 average once again.... IF HE"S PLAYING IN COORS.

Dexter seems like a typical high-altitude player as his splits show:

Home OPS - .882
Road OPS - .698

He can play CF, but I'm not going to be sold on the overall numbers we'd be shown once (if) a deal is done. It also depends of course on what the Phils would be giving up, because his overall road numbers are very pedestrian.

[Ben Grimm]

According to CSN's Jim Salisbury, the Phils are in serious talks with Houston about a trade for RP Wilton Lopez.

Lopez, 29, was 6-3 with a 2.17 ERA in 64 games for the Astros last season. A sinkerballer, he registered excellent control numbers, striking out 54 and walking just eight in 66 1/3 innings. He had 10 saves after taking over as closer when the Astros traded Brett Myers to the White Sox.

If acquired, he'd be the team's setup man leading into Papelbon. The Phils were interested in Ryan Madson until he signed with the Angels. Lopez is heading into his first year of arbitration after making $515k last season. MLBTR projects him to earn $1.4M this season, which would be much more inexpensive than either Mike Adams or Koji Uehera. He's 29 years old entering the 2013 season.