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Thread: 2012-2013 Phillies Offseason Thread

  1. #141
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    To be totally honest I don't think we are getting Swisher. In which case I hope they would not sign anyone. I'd give Dom Brown, Mayberry and even Ruf a chance to be everyday players for a while and see what happens. The Phils good years were built with their farm system guys [Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Myers, Hamels, Burrell, Kendrick, Madson]. Supplemented with some good signings, low key, low risk.

    I don't like this going out and getting 30 year old stop gap chumps every year when there is young home grown talent that should get a chance to play. Don't get me wrong I love Halladay and Lee and the prospects given up haven't turned out to be anything special [yet, anyhow]. I just don't like the idea of bringing guys through the system purely as a means to get 32 year old players for a year or two.
    "I go all out. And I'm going to bring that to the table every day, in good times and bad times." - Eric Byrnes

    "...far too many people want to retroactively apply today's standards to yesterday's players, as if they played the game under the same assumptions and just heedlessly and obdurately plowed on in their own groove." - Los Bravos

  2. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    That's 181 PAs - more than most players get in that situation.
    According to this study,
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...come-reliable/
    50 PA: Swing %
    100 PA: Contact Rate
    150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
    200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
    250 PA: Flyball Rate
    300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
    500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
    550 PA: ISO
    Swish's 181 PA's in the post season mean that his K rate, LD%, Pitches/PA, Contact Rate and Swing % should be representative (minus the fact these events occurred over 7 seasons)

    So, let's compare those to his career numbers. Unfortunately, I don't have his playoff stats for all the above
    STAT CAREER/PLAYOFF
    K-Rate: 21.3%/25.4%
    LD%: 19.5%/15%
    at 200 PA's (which he's close to)
    BB%: 13.3%/13.3%
    GB%: 36.7%/36.4%

    Looks like he's K'ing a bit more and hitting less line drives in the playoffs. Which isn't a good thing.

    His career BABIP is .292, his playoff BABIP is .210. Part of that is explained by the decrease in line drives. Some of it is likely bad luck.

  3. #143
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    Rumor swirling about that the Phils may be in a three-team deal for Justin Upton. Not sure how far along it is as I'm just getting wind of it.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  4. #144
    No one's safe this offseason. J. Upton and even Giancarlo Stanton are rumored not to be offlimits for trades for the right packages.
    I just hope that if these two guys are indeed traded, that if they can't be acquired by the Phillies, that at least the Yankees don't get them. Stanton in a Yankees lineup would be scary and would probably revive a Worlds Champion Yankees dynasty, not the mere A.L. East division title Yankees dynasty that we are currently in the midst of.

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    No one's safe this offseason. J. Upton and even Giancarlo Stanton are rumored not to be offlimits for trades for the right packages.
    I just hope that if these two guys are indeed traded, that if they can't be acquired by the Phillies, that at least the Yankees don't get them. Stanton in a Yankees lineup would be scary and would probably revive a Worlds Champion Yankees dynasty, not the mere A.L. East division title Yankees dynasty that we are currently in the midst of.
    I don't think you'd have to worry about the Yankees getting Stanton. To acquire him, it'd take at least 3-4 prospects that would be in BBA's Top-100 list. For a team like Texas to acquire him, it'd take a package including Profar, Olt & Martin Perez simply for the Marlins to even entertain it. A team like the Royals have the young talent to possibly get him, but he's a lot closer to getting paid than any of their current commodities and KC's never been known to break the bank on a player.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  6. #146
    I saw a story on philly.com/sports that appeared yesterday, January 7. The headline was "Amaro Says Phillies Are about Done" (with offseason acquisitions). I just couldn't believe it. Really? - "Phillies about done"? - when Ruben Amaro Jr. has had one of the worst offseasons regarding acquiring new talent for any GM in recent memory. For his good moves of acquiring a young Centerfielder in Ben Revere (still just 24 on Opening Day 2013) he's countered that by acquiring a player that will turn 37 by the first round of the playoffs and is coming off the least productive season of his career. (Michael Young). While he filled a need for an eighth inning set-up man in Mike Adams he also traded away a promising young pitcher in Vance Worley and acquired a very undistinguished replacement in John Lannan. This is hardly the time for Amaro to rest on his laurels and he is deluding himself if he thinks his work is done in acquring player personnel in preparation for the upcoming season. Statements like the "We're about done" BY AMARO THAT MADE HEADLINES IN PHILLY NEWSPAPERS are very frustrating to Phillies fans when this offseason has featured the Phillies constantly being beaten to the punch by other teams in pulling the trigger on trades or free agent signings. What's more - reports have it that the Phillies are about 7 Million dollars in 2013 player salaries below the limit where a LUXURY TAX would kick in. - So, Amaro has a lot more money to play with. At the risk of redundancy - If Amaro THINKS he's done player shopping this off-season, then he'd better RETHINK it.
    Last edited by philliesfiend55; 01-08-2013 at 07:23 AM.

  7. #147
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    It's pretty much the reality. He had a limited budget with which to work - something different than his prior offseasons. Also, don't forget he resigned Cole Hamels during the season. Had he not, the Phils would likely have paid him even more on the FA market or spend it on Greinke.

    On the good side, the team - as built now, will be more than a year younger than it was last year on opening day. Last year, the team was 30+ on average. This year, it'll be around 29.5 years old.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  8. #148
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    With Adam LaRoche re-signing with the Nationals, Mike Morse would likely be traded. He'd be a solid RHed bat to play LF for the Phils, but there's probably zero chance the two teams would make a deal. Shame too, since the Nat's are looking for LHed bullpen arms after missing out on JP Howell - something the Phillies could afford to move.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  9. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    With Adam LaRoche re-signing with the Nationals, Mike Morse would likely be traded. He'd be a solid RHed bat to play LF for the Phils, but there's probably zero chance the two teams would make a deal. Shame too, since the Nat's are looking for LHed bullpen arms after missing out on JP Howell - something the Phillies could afford to move.
    Agreed! - Trades between division rivals are rare. Although a Morse for Bastardo plus a prospect trade would help out both teams - it's unlikely.

  10. #150
    My hunch is that Jon Pettibone will force his way out of Triple A ball up to the majors sometime early this season and he'll be in the starting rotation by the all-star break. If there are any injuries to starters in Spring Training he could even make the team for Opening Day. My hunch is that once he gets in the rotation he will be hard to dislodge and he might force one of the #4&5 pitchers ( Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan) to the bullpen.

  11. #151
    Phils Will consider Javier Vazquez

    The Phillies are said to be among a small group of teams that is scouting Javier Vazquez now pitching in a Caribbean winter League. Vazquez is considering making a comeback after a one year self-imposed layoff. He may pitch in the World Baseball Classic in early and mid- March and then decide if he wants to return to the major leagues or stay retired.
    Vazquez is a power pitcher, who also has a wide variety of pitches in his repetoire including an outstanding curve and a number of off-speed pitches.
    He is 165-160 lifetime, with a 4.22 ERA, but and the real imnpressive number that jumps out about him is is career strikeouts total of 2536 Ks,which puts him in 29th place all-time in that category.
    In 2011 Vazquez was 13-11, with an ERA of about 3.60 with the Marlins in his last season in the majors. After some early season struggles he had a very strong second half that included three Complete Games and a Shutout.
    One of the teams not scouting or showing any interest in Vazquez is the New York Yankees. His two one year stints with the Yankees in 2004 and 2010 were among the low points of his career.

  12. #152
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    Apparently, the Phils prefer returning Rodrigo Lopez...

    Phillies signed RHP Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

    He holds a 4.90 ERA over the last four seasons and was superb with his 5.70 ERA for the Phils back in '09. Prepare the parade down Broad Street!!!
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  13. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    Apparently, the Phils prefer returning Rodrigo Lopez...

    Phillies signed RHP Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

    He holds a 4.90 ERA over the last four seasons and was superb with his 5.70 ERA for the Phils back in '09. Prepare the parade down Broad Street!!!
    Lopez chosen over Vazquez: More shopping by Ruben at the "BARGAIN BASEMENT".

    LOPEZ LASTED ONLY SIX OR SEVEN WEEKS WITH THE PHILLIES IN 2009. WHAT MAKES AMARO THINK THAT THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE ANY DIFFERENT?
    Last edited by philliesfiend55; 01-13-2013 at 01:48 PM.

  14. #154
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    Looks to me that Lopez is here as a veteran just in case Lannan doesn't work out.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  15. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    LOPEZ LASTED ONLY SIX OR SEVEN WEEKS WITH THE PHILLIES IN 2009. WHAT MAKES AMARO THINK THAT THIS TIME AROUND WILL BE ANY DIFFERENT?
    Ruben Amaro is magic.
    The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

  16. #156
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue387 View Post
    Ruben Amaro is magic.
    Yes, his dad Ruben amaro Sr. was magicas a Gloveman at shortstop.
    Ruben Amaro Jr. - Magic as a player or as a General Manager: NOT SO MUCH!

  17. #157
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    Jr. was an insanely gifted soccer player. I played alongside him for two years prior him going to H.S. It's a shame soccer was dying as a pro sport in the USA, because had it been stronger, he may have stayed with it. My childhood friend took over Phillies' batboy chores from Ruben and is currently their equipment manager.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  18. #158
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    Cripes! The Nat's just signed Raphael Soriano for the back of their bullpen. Mucho cost, but they now have the best 6-9 inning pen in the game IMO, and with Strasburg going 200+ innings, this team could be rough to contend with for the next few seasons.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  19. #159
    Soriano can be very formidable. Without him, the Yankees would have taken another division title in 2010, but the Rays edged them out by one game largely because Soriano had an awesome season as Tampa Bay's closer. Also, without Soriano in the Yankees bullpen this past year, taking up the slack after Mariano Rivera's injury, Baltimore takes the division and not the Yankees. The chances of the Phillies getting back to their former division-winning ways in 2013 just got smaller with Soriano's signing by Washington.

  20. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    Soriano can be very formidable. Without him, the Yankees would have taken another division title in 2010, but the Rays edged them out by one game largely because Soriano had an awesome season as Tampa Bay's closer. Also, without Soriano in the Yankees bullpen this past year, taking up the slack after Mariano Rivera's injury, Baltimore takes the division and not the Yankees.
    You have no idea if that is true or not

    The chances of the Phillies getting back to their former division-winning ways in 2013 just got smaller with Soriano's signing by Washington.
    This is true

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