2012-2013 Phillies Offseason Thread

[philliesfiend55]

Mike Adams signed today for two years with two possible vesting options for a third year (2015). Contract calls for about $6 Million salary in both 2013 & 2014. Will be used as an 8th inning Set-Up Man.

[bluesky5]

Looks like a good pick up.

[philliesfiend55]

SP-John Lannan signed a few hours after Adams. - Saturday was a Busy Day in Philadelphia! Lannan will compete for rotation spot vacated by Worley's trade to Twins.

[Blue387]

Do you think the Phillies should sign Nick Swisher?

[philliesfiend55]

Do you think the Phillies should sign Nick Swisher?

I have very mixed feelings bout Swisher.
I perceive him as being a very arrogant guy, so for personality reasons I'd say the Phils should pass on him.
However, the guy has about 210 career home runs and he seemed to specialize in the late inning, come-from-behind home run for the Yankees these last four seasons.

I remember one game in particular in 2010 when the Yankees and the Rays were in a tight race for the American League East division title. In a day game at Yankee Stadium in late August or september the Orioles had a one-run lead from about the fifth inning on. With one on and two outs in the ninth, Swisher faced Baltimore's top reliever Uehara and hit a walkoff holme run. Tampa Bay wound up edging the Yankees for the diviaion title by one game, but the incident still highligts that Swisher often could rise to the occasion in a clutch situation.

[Ben Grimm]

Do you think the Phillies should sign Nick Swisher?

I like Swisher mostly because of his switch-hitting ability. SHers really help balance out a lineup and helps add some RH power to this lineup.

If there's a downside to his game, it's that he's only .169/.283/.305 in 181 PAs during the post season.

[Ben Grimm]

Mike Adams signed today for two years with two possible vesting options for a third year (2015). Contract calls for about $6 Million salary in both 2013 & 2014. Will be used as an 8th inning Set-Up Man.

I'm not a fan of overspending for relievers mainly because they're so volatile year to year. But Adams has been exceptional the past few seasons, and the Phils didn't have the budget to go spending on hitters this year. Add in how the pen blew up last season, and it's no surprise Amaro made a reactionary signing.

SP-John Lannan signed a few hours after Adams. - Saturday was a Busy Day in Philadelphia! Lannan will compete for rotation spot vacated by Worley's trade to Twins.

Not a fan at all. He's been horrible when starting in this park. If he has one bad outing, the fans will get on him quickly IMO simply based on his breaking Chase's arm a few years ago. Hopefully, somebody beats him out and he's simply a long-reliever - albeit a somewhat expensive one.

[bluesky5]

I think Swisher is more reliable than what we are currently working with.

[philliesfiend55]

Ben on John Lannan:
Not a fan at all. He's been horrible when starting in this park. If he has one bad outing, the fans will get on him quickly IMO simply based on his breaking Chase's arm a few years ago. Hopefully, somebody beats him out and he's simply a long-reliever - albeit a somewhat expensive one.

Oh no, another Andy Ashby. If Lannan is terrible at least the present-day Phillies will in all likelihood not make the mistake they made with Ashby of bringing him back for a second stint.
Ashby never learned to pitch in the good hitters' park of Veterans Stadium. He was 2-8 in 1991 & 1992, his first two years in the majors. Then after moving on to other teams and actually making two National League all-star teams as a San Diego Padre with 17 wins in 1998 and 14 wins in 1999, Ashby's good numbers on the West coast deceived the team into reacquiring him for the 2000 season. Quickly Ashby reverted back to his losing ways in Philly going 4-7 until the Phils ditched him mid-way through the '00 season. Almost predictably he bounced back to post a decent 8-6 mark over the remainder of the season with Atlanta. Altogether Ashby was 98-110 lifetime in a career that ended in 2004, but he was 6-15 in three seasons as a Phillie. Take away his misadventures in Philadelphia and Ashby almost broke even at 92-95, a decent journeyman's total. If Lannan's track record in Philadelphia is as bad as Ben Grimm indicates then the Phillies' front office hasn't learned much over the last 13 years.

"If someone beats Lannan out he'll be an expensive long reliever" -Ben Grimm. - "Calling Jon Pettibone! - Hope you have a great Spring Training, Jon!" - philliesfiend55.

[Ben Grimm]

Lannan, to me, is a classic case of a guy who gets roughed up after a lineup sees him the first time.

1st inning ERA: 2.82
2nd inning ERA: 2.76
3rd inning ERA: 5.48
4th inning ERA: 4.08
5th inning ERA: 4.32
6th inning ERA: 4.36

Granted, he does have a GB rate around 50%. But being a LHP, teams will throw in a few righty hitters against him which means balls hit to Michael Young. Something tells me we'll be seeing Galvis at 3B when Lannan's on the mound, though that could hamper his run support.

[filihok]

Lannan, to me, is a classic case of a guy who gets roughed up after a lineup sees him the first time.

This is true of all pitchers
In the NL in 2012
1st time facing batter .695
2nd time .734
3rd time .775

Lannan's OPS against
1st time .678
2nd time .779
3rd time .805

But, you're right. Lannan does get hit more harder than the average NL starter.

[Ben Grimm]

This is true of all pitchers
In the NL in 2012
1st time facing batter .695
2nd time .734
3rd time .775

Lannan's OPS against
1st time .678
2nd time .779
3rd time .805

But, you're right. Lannan does get hit more harder than the average NL starter.

Very true about most pitchers getting hit harder once seen. And even more prelevant (sp?) today with so many starters in the game since there are 30 teams.

But look at the isolated number on those that you broke down. OPS difference in NL last year between 1st and 2nd look was .039 - against Lannan, it's .101

[Blue387]

If there's a downside to his game, it's that he's only .169/.283/.305 in 181 PAs during the post season.

Playoffs are a small sample size.

[Ben Grimm]

Playoffs are a small sample size.

That's 181 PAs - more than most players get in that situation.

[bluesky5]

I like Swisher mostly because of his switch-hitting ability. SHers really help balance out a lineup and helps add some RH power to this lineup.

If there's a downside to his game, it's that he's only .169/.283/.305 in 181 PAs during the post season.

The more I think about Swisher the more I like him. For the reason you mentioned and he is a corner outfielder, which we need. Mayberry and Brown have hardly proven themselves. Swisher is a proven power hitter who is hardly ever injured. Something that would be a nice change for the oft-injured Phils.

Cleveland has offered him a deal, rumored 4 years at $50 million. The Phillies don't even sound interested.

[bluesky5]

To be totally honest I don't think we are getting Swisher. In which case I hope they would not sign anyone. I'd give Dom Brown, Mayberry and even Ruf a chance to be everyday players for a while and see what happens. The Phils good years were built with their farm system guys [Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Myers, Hamels, Burrell, Kendrick, Madson]. Supplemented with some good signings, low key, low risk.

I don't like this going out and getting 30 year old stop gap chumps every year when there is young home grown talent that should get a chance to play. Don't get me wrong I love Halladay and Lee and the prospects given up haven't turned out to be anything special [yet, anyhow]. I just don't like the idea of bringing guys through the system purely as a means to get 32 year old players for a year or two.

[filihok]

That's 181 PAs - more than most players get in that situation.

According to this study,
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...come-reliable/

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Swish's 181 PA's in the post season mean that his K rate, LD%, Pitches/PA, Contact Rate and Swing % should be representative (minus the fact these events occurred over 7 seasons)

So, let's compare those to his career numbers. Unfortunately, I don't have his playoff stats for all the above
STAT CAREER/PLAYOFF
K-Rate: 21.3%/25.4%
LD%: 19.5%/15%
at 200 PA's (which he's close to)
BB%: 13.3%/13.3%
GB%: 36.7%/36.4%

Looks like he's K'ing a bit more and hitting less line drives in the playoffs. Which isn't a good thing.

His career BABIP is .292, his playoff BABIP is .210. Part of that is explained by the decrease in line drives. Some of it is likely bad luck.

[Ben Grimm]

Rumor swirling about that the Phils may be in a three-team deal for Justin Upton. Not sure how far along it is as I'm just getting wind of it.

[philliesfiend55]

No one's safe this offseason. J. Upton and even Giancarlo Stanton are rumored not to be offlimits for trades for the right packages.
I just hope that if these two guys are indeed traded, that if they can't be acquired by the Phillies, that at least the Yankees don't get them. Stanton in a Yankees lineup would be scary and would probably revive a Worlds Champion Yankees dynasty, not the mere A.L. East division title Yankees dynasty that we are currently in the midst of.

[Ben Grimm]

No one's safe this offseason. J. Upton and even Giancarlo Stanton are rumored not to be offlimits for trades for the right packages.
I just hope that if these two guys are indeed traded, that if they can't be acquired by the Phillies, that at least the Yankees don't get them. Stanton in a Yankees lineup would be scary and would probably revive a Worlds Champion Yankees dynasty, not the mere A.L. East division title Yankees dynasty that we are currently in the midst of.

I don't think you'd have to worry about the Yankees getting Stanton. To acquire him, it'd take at least 3-4 prospects that would be in BBA's Top-100 list. For a team like Texas to acquire him, it'd take a package including Profar, Olt & Martin Perez simply for the Marlins to even entertain it. A team like the Royals have the young talent to possibly get him, but he's a lot closer to getting paid than any of their current commodities and KC's never been known to break the bank on a player.

[philliesfiend55]

I saw a story on philly.com/sports that appeared yesterday, January 7. The headline was "Amaro Says Phillies Are about Done" (with offseason acquisitions). I just couldn't believe it. Really? - "Phillies about done"? - when Ruben Amaro Jr. has had one of the worst offseasons regarding acquiring new talent for any GM in recent memory. For his good moves of acquiring a young Centerfielder in Ben Revere (still just 24 on Opening Day 2013) he's countered that by acquiring a player that will turn 37 by the first round of the playoffs and is coming off the least productive season of his career. (Michael Young). While he filled a need for an eighth inning set-up man in Mike Adams he also traded away a promising young pitcher in Vance Worley and acquired a very undistinguished replacement in John Lannan. This is hardly the time for Amaro to rest on his laurels and he is deluding himself if he thinks his work is done in acquring player personnel in preparation for the upcoming season. Statements like the "We're about done" BY AMARO THAT MADE HEADLINES IN PHILLY NEWSPAPERS are very frustrating to Phillies fans when this offseason has featured the Phillies constantly being beaten to the punch by other teams in pulling the trigger on trades or free agent signings. What's more - reports have it that the Phillies are about 7 Million dollars in 2013 player salaries below the limit where a LUXURY TAX would kick in. - So, Amaro has a lot more money to play with. At the risk of redundancy - If Amaro THINKS he's done player shopping this off-season, then he'd better RETHINK it.

[Ben Grimm]

It's pretty much the reality. He had a limited budget with which to work - something different than his prior offseasons. Also, don't forget he resigned Cole Hamels during the season. Had he not, the Phils would likely have paid him even more on the FA market or spend it on Greinke.

On the good side, the team - as built now, will be more than a year younger than it was last year on opening day. Last year, the team was 30+ on average. This year, it'll be around 29.5 years old.

[Ben Grimm]

With Adam LaRoche re-signing with the Nationals, Mike Morse would likely be traded. He'd be a solid RHed bat to play LF for the Phils, but there's probably zero chance the two teams would make a deal. Shame too, since the Nat's are looking for LHed bullpen arms after missing out on JP Howell - something the Phillies could afford to move.

[philliesfiend55]

With Adam LaRoche re-signing with the Nationals, Mike Morse would likely be traded. He'd be a solid RHed bat to play LF for the Phils, but there's probably zero chance the two teams would make a deal. Shame too, since the Nat's are looking for LHed bullpen arms after missing out on JP Howell - something the Phillies could afford to move.

Agreed! - Trades between division rivals are rare. Although a Morse for Bastardo plus a prospect trade would help out both teams - it's unlikely.

[philliesfiend55]

My hunch is that Jon Pettibone will force his way out of Triple A ball up to the majors sometime early this season and he'll be in the starting rotation by the all-star break. If there are any injuries to starters in Spring Training he could even make the team for Opening Day. My hunch is that once he gets in the rotation he will be hard to dislodge and he might force one of the #4&5 pitchers ( Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan) to the bullpen.