2012-2013 Phillies Offseason Thread

[Ben Grimm]

Roy Halladay is scheduled to pitch off a mound today for the first time this offseason. Yesterday in an interview, he said he feels great. Kendrick is slated to throw today as well.

[Ben Grimm]

Jim Salisbury, who may be the most reputable Phils' beat writer, is reporting that Amaro's seriously considering Delmon Young as a FA acquisition. He's already been in discussion with Delmon's agent.

[philliesfiend55]

Jim Salisbury, who may be the most reputable Phils' beat writer, is reporting that Amaro's seriously considering Delmon Young as a FA acquisition. He's already been in discussion with Delmon's agent.

Supposedly, Ryan Theirot is also under serious consideration by Amaro to be signed as a 4-position utility infielder. With recent injuries to Howard & Utley and an aging Young, THEIROT could be a vaLUABLE ADDITION TO THE TEAM AND AN EXCELLENT SIGNING.

[filihok]

Supposedly, Ryan Theirot is also under serious consideration by Amaro to be signed as a 4-position utility infielder. With recent injuries to Howard & Utley and an aging Young, THEIROT could be a vaLUABLE ADDITION TO THE TEAM AND AN EXCELLENT SIGNING.

Except Theriot isn't good

He's produced 0.6 fWAR over the last 3 seasons.

During that time he hit:
.319/.324 (OBP/SLG) which is 21% worse than a league average hitter.

In 2012 the average SS hit .310/.378.
In 2012 the average 2B hit .318/.383.
In 2012 the average 3B hit .327/.427.
So Theriot is a worse hitter than the average hitter at any infield position.

In 1001 innings at SS his defense was 12 runs below average (by UZR)
In 1918 innings at 2B his defense was 6 runs below average (by UZR)

He had a few good seasons, but that was half of a decade ago.

He doesn't look like a useful major league baseball player anymore.

*Ryan Theriot data from FanGraphs
*League data from Baseball-Reference

[Blue387]

filihok is smart.

[filihok]

Phillies just signed Delmon Young

1 year and $750 K


Yuck.

Young has 1.4 WAR the last 3 seasons. About 1/2 a win per season.

He has .8 WAR in his career. About 0 WAR per season.

He's a career .317/.425 hitter
He's hitting .311/.435 over the last 3 seasons, exactly league average.

The average LF hit .326/.431 last year
The average RF hit .327/.434 last year

Young is below those marks and adds nothing on the bases (-6 runs since 2010) or defensively (-17 runs since 2010).

He CAN hit lefties.
.347/.500 the last 3 seasons which is 27% better than the league average.

If you squint, he could be useful platooning with Domonic Brown (though Brown probably deserves to play every day).

*Delmon Young's stats from FanGraphs
*League stats from Baseball-Reference

[bluesky5]

Phillies just signed Delmon Young

1 year and $750 K


Yuck.

Young has 1.4 WAR the last 3 seasons. About 1/2 a win per season.

He has .8 WAR in his career. About 0 WAR per season.

He's a career .317/.425 hitter
He's hitting .311/.435 over the last 3 seasons, exactly league average.

The average LF hit .326/.431 last year
The average RF hit .327/.434 last year

Young is below those marks and adds nothing on the bases (-6 runs since 2010) or defensively (-17 runs since 2010).

He CAN hit lefties.
.347/.500 the last 3 seasons which is 27% better than the league average.

If you squint, he could be useful platooning with Domonic Brown (though Brown probably deserves to play every day).

*Delmon Young's stats from FanGraphs
*League stats from Baseball-Reference

Someone has an ax to grind against Brown. I doubt the Phils will ever give him a chance.

[philliesfiend55]

Young has made at least one all-star team and just destoyed Yankees pitching in the ALCS last October. It's amazing that the Phillies are getting him so cheaply.

[philliesfiend55]

Except Theriot isn't good

He's produced 0.6 fWAR over the last 3 seasons.

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They are not expecting him to replace Chase Utley. He'd just be a bench player and he's pretty versatile since he can play outfield and infield positions.
Compared to the Phils' recent IF-OF utility guy, Michael Martinez, who fails to reach The Mendoza Line, Theriot would look like a star in Phillies pinstripes.

[filihok]

Young has made at least one all-star team

Are you sure?

and judt destoyed Yankees pitching in the ALCS last October.

In 115 post season at bats he's hit: .322/.538
In 3575 regular season at bats he's hit: .317/.425

Which do you think is more indicative of his talents and what he'll hit next season.

It's amazing that the Phillies are getting him so cheaply.

Major league teams know he's not very good.

[filihok]

They are not expecting him to replace Chase Utley. He'd just be a bench player and he's pretty versatile since he can play outfield and infield positions.

I can play outfield and infield positions. I can't play them well. I can't play them as well as Theriot, who has 22 innings in the OF. Theriot can't play them as well as most major league players.

Compared to the Phils' recent IF-OF utility guy, Michael Martinez, who fails to reach The Mendoza Line, Theriot would look like a star in Phillies pinstripes.

Freddy Galvis put up .6 WAR in 200 PA's last year. Theriot has .6 WAR in the last 3 years.

Martinez is terrible

[philliesfiend55]

Are you sure? RE: All-Star game selections. .

I misremembered that one. He was selected as one of the five finalists for the last spoT on the AL All-Star team.
You can't deny that his final totals of 21 HR/a hefty 112 RBI/ and a .298 batting average in 2010 ARE all-star-like and would have been good enough to put him on the all-star team most years. He's not a fan favorite and although all-star game selections are not an out-and-out popularity contest, part of the all-star game selection results can be attributable to popularity. Just think of A.J. Pierzynski's outstanding year this past season - popular WITH wHITE SOX FAN,S BUT NOT ACROSS THE COUNTRY - AND SO HE WAS LEFT OFF THE TEAM.
(and now IRONICALLY the manager (Washington) who had the final decision and opted to leave AJ off the team has become his manager for 2013).

[philliesfiend55]

Martinez is terrible

Well at least we can agree on that!

[filihok]

I misremembered that one. He was selected as one of the five finalists for the last spoT on the AL All-Star team.
You can't deny that his final totals of 21 HR/a hefty 112 RBI/ and a .298 batting average in 2010 ARE all-star-like and would have been good enough to put him on the all-star team most years. He's not a fan favorite and although all-star game selections are not an out-and-out popularity contest, part of the all-star game selection results can be attributable to popularity. Just think of A.J. Pierzynski's outstanding year this past season - popular WITH wHITE SOX FAN,S BUT NOT ACROSS THE COUNTRY - AND SO HE WAS LEFT OFF THE TEAM.
(and now IRONICALLY the manager (Washington) who had the final decision and opted to leave AJ off the team has become his manager for 2013).

2010 was the only decent season of his career.
He hit .333/.493 which was 21% better than league average. He produced 1.7 WAR.

In the rest of his career he's hit: .313/.410 and produced -0.9 WAR


2010 counts, of course. And he was a very highly rated prospect. He crushed the minor leagues. But he's shown nothing in the majors.

[philliesfiend55]

2010 was the only decent season of his career.
He crushed the minor leagues, but he's shown nothing in the majors.

Both sentences are Gross Exaggerations.

[filihok]

Both sentences are Gross Exaggerations.

How so?

Young has had 1 full season in which he was not below league average in hitting.
It might be an exaggeration that he 'crushed the minor leagues'

[Ben Grimm]

Other than the obvious baggage he brings with him, I like this signing. It's cheap and can fill a need. Delmon said today he prefers RF since he reads the ball off the bat better. Fine - let him platoon with Dom Brown. As much as I hoped Brown would be the next great thing here, he's done absolutely nothing with any of the opportunities he's had. He's a sabr fan's darling, but you still need to do more than simply project at age 25. To me, he's just another one of those toolsy OFers the Phillies have a pension of drafting who has talent - but no baseball IQ. Whether Delmon's the answer remains to be seen. But I have a feeling he'll outproduce his contract this season.

[bluesky5]

Other than the obvious baggage he brings with him, I like this signing. It's cheap and can fill a need. Delmon said today he prefers RF since he reads the ball off the bat better. Fine - let him platoon with Dom Brown. As much as I hoped Brown would be the next great thing here, he's done absolutely nothing with any of the opportunities he's had. He's a sabr fan's darling, but you still need to do more than simply project at age 25. To me, he's just another one of those toolsy OFers the Phillies have a pension of drafting who has talent - but no baseball IQ. Whether Delmon's the answer remains to be seen. But I have a feeling he'll outproduce his contract this season.

Don't you feel he hasn't been given a fair shake?

[Ben Grimm]

Don't you feel he hasn't been given a fair shake?

At first yes. But, as we've seen with players much younger in this division (Stanton, Harper & Heyward), they began to establsh themselves on some level. Brown, even though he can get on base okay, was brutal in the field, couldn't pull a ball to save his life, and has been fairly injury-prone.

Sure, he may have been yo-yo'd a bit, but this is the pros. You only get a few chances to prove your worth. On his side, Amaro has little to no patience in grooming players which was my #1 contention of his being named GM back in '09. If there was one known thing about him, it was that he had no respect for the minor league system nor grooming players. He's an instant gratification personality not much different than a 5-year old. But Dom also had a responsibility. It was to play at a level worthy of a MLB player. Watching him track down a line drive was like following one of those old Family Circus maps in the Sunday Inquirer funny pages.

I held Dom in high regard a few years ago. I was very vocal in moving Michael Taylor instead when Brown's name was mentioned and Taylor was a level closer. The talent was there. But like many toolsy guys, that talent rarely exposes itself.

[filihok]

At first yes. But, as we've seen with players much younger in this division (Stanton, Harper & Heyward), they began to establsh themselves on some level. Brown, even though he can get on base okay, was brutal in the field, couldn't pull a ball to save his life, and has been fairly injury-prone.

Sure, he may have been yo-yo'd a bit, but this is the pros. You only get a few chances to prove your worth. On his side, Amaro has little to no patience in grooming players which was my #1 contention of his being named GM back in '09. If there was one known thing about him, it was that he had no respect for the minor league system nor grooming players. He's an instant gratification personality not much different than a 5-year old. But Dom also had a responsibility. It was to play at a level worthy of a MLB player. Watching him track down a line drive was like following one of those old Family Circus maps in the Sunday Inquirer funny pages.

Dom Brown's 1st 492 PA's .315/.388
Chase Utley's 1st 439 PA's .313/.436

Utley turned into a pretty good hitter.

[Ben Grimm]

Apples and oranges. Utley was a polished hitter in college and that's what got him drafted in the first round. Granted, I was very nervous about his glove at the time, but he turned out to be okay in the field. Brown was a 20th rounder who had a football background over a baseball background IIRC. He was much more raw, but had 5-tool potential, which is something the Phillies overpersued while drafting OFers the past decade.

[bluesky5]

At first yes. But, as we've seen with players much younger in this division (Stanton, Harper & Heyward), they began to establsh themselves on some level. Brown, even though he can get on base okay, was brutal in the field, couldn't pull a ball to save his life, and has been fairly injury-prone.

Sure, he may have been yo-yo'd a bit, but this is the pros. You only get a few chances to prove your worth. On his side, Amaro has little to no patience in grooming players which was my #1 contention of his being named GM back in '09. If there was one known thing about him, it was that he had no respect for the minor league system nor grooming players. He's an instant gratification personality not much different than a 5-year old. But Dom also had a responsibility. It was to play at a level worthy of a MLB player. Watching him track down a line drive was like following one of those old Family Circus maps in the Sunday Inquirer funny pages.

I held Dom in high regard a few years ago. I was very vocal in moving Michael Taylor instead when Brown's name was mentioned and Taylor was a level closer. The talent was there. But like many toolsy guys, that talent rarely exposes itself.

True

And true about Amaro, regardless of what anyone thinks it doesn't look like Brown is going to get many AB's.

[philliesfiend55]

Other than the obvious baggage he brings with him, I like this signing. It's cheap and can fill a need. Delmon said today he prefers RF since he reads the ball off the bat better. Fine - let him platoon with Dom Brown. As much as I hoped Brown would be the next great thing here, he's done absolutely nothing with any of the opportunities he's had. He's a sabr fan's darling, but you still need to do more than simply project at age 25. To me, he's just another one of those toolsy OFers the Phillies have a pension of drafting who has talent - but no baseball IQ. Whether Delmon's the answer remains to be seen. But I have a feeling he'll outproduce his contract this season.

I remember Domonic Brown's first major league game during the last week of July 2010. In his first at-bat he doubled off the right field wall and missed a home run by about 3 or 4 inches. Phillies Fans were never as optimistic about his future after that first game, as continued play seemed to expose holes in his game. He's had three partial seasons in the majors now for about 1.5 years of major league service time. Although he hasn't put it together yet, that doesn't mean that he can't start prodcuing from this time forward. Part of the problem has been the inexcuseably high expectations the Phillies front office has placed on him. He'll only turn 26 the first week of September 2013 and he's young enough to still become an outstanding player. He's just coming into his prime.

[Ben Grimm]

True that age-wise, Brown's just entering his prime. Problem is, most players are already showing signs of gradual increase in performance or have had 1-2 very solid years leading up to it. Brown's been pretty much a flat-line and has less experience than many his age who've had equal expectations laid upon them. He's got zero track record at the ML level that can convincingly leave somebody to project him as a high performer any time soon. Right now, it seems the least sold on him is Amaro, but Ruben will be Ruben.

The Braves just made a deal today for Justin Upton. They now have an OF that rivals the Nat's and six starters in their lineup who can all surpass 20 HRs this season. They did lose Prado, who was supposed to be their leadoff hitter, but they're going to have a dangerous lineup this season.

[filihok]

I remember Domonic Brown's first major league game during the last week of July 2010. In his first at-bat he doubled off the right field wall and missed a home run by about 3 or 4 inches. Phillies Fans were never as optimistic about his future after that first game, as continued play seemed to expose holes in his game. He's had three partial seasons in the majors now for about 1.5 years of major league service time. Although he hasn't put it together yet, that doesn't mean that he can't start prodcuing from this time forward. Part of the problem has been the inexcuseably high expectations the Phillies front office has placed on him. He'll only turn 26 the first week of September 2013 and he's young enough to still become an outstanding player. He's just coming into his prime.

Still waiting to read what my gross exaggeration was