2012-2013 Phillies Offseason Thread

[filihok]

A name from the past - Ian Stewart. I really thought he'd have the foothold on the 3B spot while he was in Colorado. But those years have certainly passed.

He could be gotten I'd think, but I'm sure that the Cubs would simply love to make a Soriano combo deal. Now it the Cubs love Darin Ruf, so be it - i'd move him in a heartbeat in a deal to get Soriano and Stewart with Alfonso coming at a massive reduced cost. Other than that, I'm not so sure the two teams match up that well.

Ruf's projected for: .326/.447 (OBP/SLG) worth 0.9 WAR in 362 PA's (1.5 WAR per 600 PA's)

Soriano: .304/.447 worth 1.7 WAR in 549 PA's (1.9 WAR per 600 PA's)

[Ben Grimm]

Ruf's projected for: .326/.447 (OBP/SLG) worth 0.9 WAR in 362 PA's (1.5 WAR per 600 PA's)

Soriano: .304/.447 worth 1.7 WAR in 549 PA's (1.9 WAR per 600 PA's)

If all things worked out... Ruf with .9 WAR at 400K is much better than Soriano with 1.9 WAR at the $4-$5M required to get him, now?

[filihok]

A name from the past - Ian Stewart. I really thought he'd have the foothold on the 3B spot while he was in Colorado. But those years have certainly passed.

He could be gotten I'd think, but I'm sure that the Cubs would simply love to make a Soriano combo deal. Now it the Cubs love Darin Ruf, so be it - i'd move him in a heartbeat in a deal to get Soriano and Stewart with Alfonso coming at a massive reduced cost. Other than that, I'm not so sure the two teams match up that well.

Ok...I'm bored enough to look at it:

Stewart is projected for 1.2 WAR over 329 PA's.

With 1 WAR being worth about $5.5 million he should certainly be worth his salary.

That said, he's a Cub so the Phillies would need to swing a trade.

Ruf's projected for: .326/.447 (OBP/SLG) worth 0.9 WAR in 362 PA's (1.5 WAR per 600 PA's)

Soriano: .304/.447 worth 1.7 WAR in 549 PA's (1.9 WAR per 600 PA's)

First, Ruf
If we optimistically project Ruf for 1.5 WAR this year and a 2 WAR plateau for the rest of his contract he should produce 11.5 WAR at a cost of $26 million. The value of the 11.5 WAR is $72 million. This means Ruf is producing about $46 million in extra value.

Now Soriano
He'll be paid $36 million over the next 2 seasons and produce something like 3.2 WAR worth $18 million. His surplus value is -$18 million.

And Stewart. He'll make $2 million this year and maybe $4 million next year if all goes well. He should produce around 2.7 WAR worth $15 million. His excess value is about $9 million

The total for the players going to the Phillies is 6 WAR with $33 million in value at a cost of $42 million.

The Cubs would need to kick in $9 million just to make their side of the deal balance out. And that doesn't even touch the $46 million in excess value that Ruf might produce.

[Ben Grimm]

Ok...I'm bored enough to look at it:




First, Ruf
If we optimistically project Ruf for 1.5 WAR this year and a 2 WAR plateau for the rest of his contract he should produce 11.5 WAR at a cost of $26 million. The value of the 11.5 WAR is $72 million. This means Ruf is producing about $46 million in extra value.

Now Soriano
He'll be paid $36 million over the next 2 seasons and produce something like 3.2 WAR worth $18 million. His surplus value is -$18 million.

And Stewart. He'll make $2 million this year and maybe $4 million next year if all goes well. He should produce around 2.7 WAR worth $15 million.

The total for the players going to the Phillies is 6 WAR with $33 million in value at a cost of $42 million.

The Cubs would need to kick in $9 million just to make their side of the deal balance out. And that doesn't even touch the $46 million in excess value that Ruf might produce.

And that's an optomistic Ruf outlook - which is way above mine. Nice job breaking things down, and I have no prob moving Ruf if any type of deal is right - especially if the Phils can get maybe a lower-level middle infielder who's a few years away at the cost of a player who might go now. But that's just me.

[filihok]

Now Soriano
He'll be paid $36 million over the next 2 seasons and produce something like 3.2 WAR worth $18 million. His surplus value is -$18 million.

I should point out that it's commonly held that the Cubs will need to pay about half of Soriano's contract to move him. This is why. His expected production is about half of what he's owed.

[Ben Grimm]

I should point out that it's commonly held that the Cubs will need to pay about half of Soriano's contract to move him. This is why. His expected production is about half of what he's owed.

I think they have to pay much more than half... likely 75% or more to get any type of return.

[Herr28]

Hey Ben, what do you think about Michael Young coming to Philly? Any news on how he is doing this spring? I was more sorry to see him leave than Napoli (great guy, we have had better backstops here, great power, bad hip), and even Hamilton (the attitude was becoming a problem here). Young was always a great team leader and clubhouse guy, he worked hard and played all over. I hope he does real well up there for you guys, he is certainly missed down here!

[filihok]

Hey Ben, what do you think about Michael Young coming to Philly? Any news on how he is doing this spring? I was more sorry to see him leave than Napoli (great guy, we have had better backstops here, great power, bad hip), and even Hamilton (the attitude was becoming a problem here). Young was always a great team leader and clubhouse guy, he worked hard and played all over. I hope he does real well up there for you guys, he is certainly missed down here!

Do people not remember that Young complained every time he was asked to switch positions?
Why does he get labelled as a 'team leader' and 'clubhouse guy'?


http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/1...ng-quotes-he-s

"I'm not playing third base. I'm pretty adamant about my stance. I told them I wanted to be traded. The biggest misconception is that I was asked to move to third base. I was never asked. I was flat-out told. I was told I was playing third base. I felt that I had absolutely no say. I don't feel like there was any discussion or dialogue about the matter."

[Ben Grimm]

Do people not remember that Young complained every time he was asked to switch positions?
Why does he get labelled as a 'team leader' and 'clubhouse guy'?


http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/1...ng-quotes-he-s

Your own quote you pulled out states he was never asked to play 3B.

[Ben Grimm]

Amazing who they get to analyze players on the radio. Mitch Williams of all people talking about pitch location and how nobody should be worried about Halladay. Yet, some were worried about Roy last spring and rightly so. He doesn't think Dom Brown can hit major leauge pitching but on the other hand thinks the offense will take off once Delmon Young returns because he's such a good hitter... what?

[philliesfiend55]

Whatever happened to Juan Cruz, the reliever the Phillies signed, but who wriggled out of contract in February. The reason he gave was that signed before the Phillies signed Mike Adams,to be their eighth inning setup man, a job Cruz might have won before Adams signed. Did he land on his feet with another team?
Also - what's happening with Yuniesky Betancourt. He seemed certain he'd get a major leagues job after he opted out of his deal with the Phils after having a great Spring Training with the bat. Is he close to signing with anyone?

[Ben Grimm]

Whatever happened to Juan Cruz, the reliever the Phillies signed, but who wriggled out of contract in February. The reason he gave was that signed before the Phillies signed Mike Adams,to be their eighth inning setup man, a job Cruz might have won before Adams signed. Did he land on his feet with another team?
Also - what's happening with Yuniesky Betancourt. He seemed certain he'd get a major leagues job after he opted out of his deal with the Phils after having a great Spring Training with the bat. Is he close to signing with anyone?

Not sure what happened to Cruz. Betancourt signed a deal with the Brew-hahas.

[bluesky5]

Not sure what happened to Cruz. Betancourt signed a deal with the Brew-hahas.

The Yunieksi Betancourt era has come to an end. It was a good run.