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Thread: 2012/2013 New York Yankees Off-Season Thread

  1. #476
    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    But he would never be the bad guy in the NY tabloids, the team would be the one for not giving him a three year deal when he had a good year. I would give a three year deal at a reduced rate. After all, how else is he going to get to 4,000?
    He does give out a lot of autographs.

    God. I hope he is not. We are about the same age. Do you remember Pete Rose going for the record? Pathetic.

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  2. #477
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    FanGraphs calculates the value of 1 WAR at something like $5 million.

    So, $8 million is a pretty big bargain for a 2-3 WAR player, especially one who is a team/city/sport/cultural icon like Jeter.
    If he keeps it up. Big if. Chances are his offense will decline and his defense will get even worse.

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  3. #478
    More proof that steroids do not work:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2013/02/pas...-clinic-82120/

  4. #479
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    More proof that steroids do not work:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2013/02/pas...-clinic-82120/
    Why? Cervelli might be a keg softball catcher without them.

  5. #480
    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    Why? Cervelli might be a keg softball catcher without them.
    You mean you think they made him worse??? I was a keg softball catcher in my day!

  6. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    FanGraphs calculates the value of 1 WAR at something like $5 million.

    So, $8 million is a pretty big bargain for a 2-3 WAR player, especially one who is a team/city/sport/cultural icon like Jeter.
    The marginal revenue of 1 WAR is 5 large? That sounds like an awful lot!

  7. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    The marginal revenue of 1 WAR is 5 large? That sounds like an awful lot!
    I think it depends on the team and the situation. If a team is close to contending and a few more wins will put them over the top and into the postseason, this wins are easily worth at least $5M each. If a player lifts your team from 65 to 70 wins, he's probably not as good a value at $25 million as a player who takes you from 88 wins to 93 wins.

  8. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    I think it depends on the team and the situation. If a team is close to contending and a few more wins will put them over the top and into the postseason, this wins are easily worth at least $5M each. If a player lifts your team from 65 to 70 wins, he's probably not as good a value at $25 million as a player who takes you from 88 wins to 93 wins.
    That is the general approach from Beyond the boxscore.

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  9. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    I think it depends on the team and the situation. If a team is close to contending and a few more wins will put them over the top and into the postseason, this wins are easily worth at least $5M each. If a player lifts your team from 65 to 70 wins, he's probably not as good a value at $25 million as a player who takes you from 88 wins to 93 wins.
    Since the Yanks barely won the AL East, does that mean you think Jeter was worth his salary?
    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

  10. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    I think it depends on the team and the situation. If a team is close to contending and a few more wins will put them over the top and into the postseason, this wins are easily worth at least $5M each. If a player lifts your team from 65 to 70 wins, he's probably not as good a value at $25 million as a player who takes you from 88 wins to 93 wins.
    I can certainly see the marginal revenue of a single win being worth 5 large or even far more given the situation. That being said, an actual win and WAR are two different things. You just can't assign a value to a single WAR. A dime a dozen average player with a WAR of 2 is not really worth 10 million IMO. A 2 WAR player is everywhere and can be aquired by any team. A 10 WAR player is a rare gem and worth far more than five 2 WAR players.

    Is a 5 WAR player worth 25 million? How about a 10 WAR player, is he worth 50 million? Is the marginal revenue of a 10 WAR player $10 million over a player with a WAR of 8? Hard to answer these questions without knowing the actual scenarios but if I had to answer these questions, my answers would be; no, no, maybe...


    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    Since the Yanks barely won the AL East, does that mean you think Jeter was worth his salary?
    Jeter only had 2.1 WAR that year so if you go by the 5 large per WAR formula, he was overpaid...

  11. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    A 2 WAR player is everywhere and can be aquired by any team.
    There were 962 non-pitchers who appeared in the major leagues last season.
    151 of them produced 2 or more WAR.
    That's 15%

    Now, there's some playing time issues with that. Hard to put up 2 WAR in 1 PA.

    130 of 193 players who had 400 PA's put up 2 WAR. That's about 2/3rds

    But, that's only about 4 players per team (130/30).

    2 WAR players aren't everywhere.

  12. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    He does give out a lot of autographs.

    God. I hope he is not. We are about the same age. Do you remember Pete Rose going for the record? Pathetic.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
    Well, I was 12 during the 1985 season. I remember the news, but I did not know at the time just how awful he was. Looking back, he was terrible. Would Jeter look that bad? We'll know soon. If he can get to 196 or so hits this year, then he's at 3,500. Not bad. I also think it would be amazing for baseball to have another player/manager and someone to hold the hits record that isn't banned.
    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

  13. #488
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post

    130 of 193 players who had 400 PA's put up 2 WAR. That's about 2/3rds

    But, that's only about 4 players per team (130/30).

    2 WAR players aren't everywhere.
    Obviously we have slightly different definition for ubiquitous...

    I would consider 2/3 of 400+ PA players or 4 per team to be dime a dozen....

    Our difference in the interpretation of ubiquitous notwithstanding, my point was that such a dime a dozen player is not worth 10 large; and that a single 10 WAR player is worth far more than five 2 WAR players.
    Last edited by Joltin' Joe; 02-08-2013 at 11:47 AM.

  14. #489
    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    Obviously we have slightly different definition for ubiquitous...

    I would consider 2/3 of 400+ PA players or 4 per team to be dime a dozen....
    I guess.

    On the average team, 4 players were capable of 2 WAR. 4.5 were not.

    Our difference in the interpretation of ubiquitous notwithstanding, my point was that such a dime a dozen player is not worth 10 large;
    Based on what?

    Here's how the $5 million number was arrived at
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ined-part-six/
    What do you disagree with?


    and that a single 10 WAR player is worth far more than five 2 WAR players.
    Agreed.

    However, the market doesn't show that.
    There aren't any 10 WAR players but 4+ WAR players sign for about $5 million per war
    2 WAR players sign for about $5 million per WAR

  15. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post

    Here's how the $5 million number was arrived at
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ined-part-six/
    What do you disagree with?
    The article is stating that a win is worth 5 large, not WAR in particular; which is what I said in another post. Adding a 1 WAR player to your roster is not going to give you another win.

  16. #491
    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    The article is stating that a win is worth 5 large, not WAR in particular; which is what I said in another post. Adding a 1 WAR player to your roster is not going to give you another win.
    The win that they refer to is a win above replacement.

  17. #492
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    The win that they refer to is a win above replacement.
    If that is the case, then I will have to disagree with such a general application of WAR.

  18. #493
    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    If that is the case, then I will have to disagree with such a general application of WAR.
    On what grounds?

    WAR very accurately models team wins

    WAR very accurately predicts future contracts

  19. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    On what grounds?
    Didn't you just agree with me that a 10 WAR player is worth more than five 2 WAR players?

    A player that immensely talented and that rare taking up one roster spot is worth far more than five mediocred players that can be easily replaced taking up five rosters spots.

  20. #495
    Quote Originally Posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    Didn't you just agree with me that a 10 WAR player is worth more than five 2 WAR players?
    Yes.

    A player that immensely talented and that rare taking up one roster spot is worth far more than five mediocred players that can be easily replaced taking up five rosters spots.
    Agreed.

    However, in the real world

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...per-win-again/
    I understand why people think that premium players are worth more than a linear dollar-per-win conversion might suggest, but the evidence simply isn’t there to support that kind of market valuation in Major League Baseball right now. Teams pay for wins (or what they perceive will lead to wins, anyway), but they don’t pay extra to get more of those wins in one package.
    Again, the full article, gives more detail than my short quote.

  21. #496
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Yes.


    Agreed.

    However, in the real world

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...per-win-again/

    Again, the full article, gives more detail than my short quote.
    If the linear dollar per win is true doesn't that mean that the often criticized MLB team executives (who say things like in my signature) are actually fantastic in assessing players? we always talk about overpaying contracts but your stats don't seem to support that.
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and cant run, most of the time hes clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. Dusty Baker.

  22. #497
    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    Well, I was 12 during the 1985 season. I remember the news, but I did not know at the time just how awful he was. Looking back, he was terrible. Would Jeter look that bad? We'll know soon. If he can get to 196 or so hits this year, then he's at 3,500. Not bad. I also think it would be amazing for baseball to have another player/manager and someone to hold the hits record that isn't banned.
    The player/manager thing did not work well last time.

    Growing up between Philly and NY I was a big Rose fan. I remember Sport magazine running a cartoon with Rose saying he would remain active until he got the record. Followed by a Bowie Kuhn statement now declaring all hits, walks, strike-outs and pop-ups hits so that he could get there.

  23. #498
    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    Well, I was 12 during the 1985 season. I remember the news, but I did not know at the time just how awful he was. Looking back, he was terrible. Would Jeter look that bad? We'll know soon. If he can get to 196 or so hits this year, then he's at 3,500. Not bad. I also think it would be amazing for baseball to have another player/manager and someone to hold the hits record that isn't banned.
    You want Jeter to player/manage the Yankees?

  24. #499
    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    If the linear dollar per win is true doesn't that mean that the often criticized MLB team executives (who say things like in my signature) are actually fantastic in assessing players?
    How so?


    we always talk about overpaying contracts but your stats don't seem to support that.
    Some players are overpaid, yes.

    How do the stats not support that?

  25. #500
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    How so?



    Some players are overpaid, yes.

    How do the stats not support that?
    Some are overpaid of course. but I was saying that MLB executives are ON AVERAGE very good in assessing players value if the actual payment correlates so well with WAR. or is this conclusion wrong?
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and cant run, most of the time hes clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. Dusty Baker.

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