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Thread: San Francisco Giants 2012 Offseason Thread

  1. #26
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    The Giants may be interested in Ryan Ludwick or Scott Hairston.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...gers-cubs.html
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    The Giants may be interested in Ryan Ludwick or Scott Hairston.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...gers-cubs.html
    What's up with Scutaro? I'm expecting him to be re-signed by the Giants.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    What's up with Scutaro? I'm expecting him to be re-signed by the Giants.
    No idea. I think the Giants do want to sign Scutaro.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  4. #29
    Scutaro's age is way up there and his value and interest with other teams is also getting up there

    The Giants are probably better suited to lose Scutaro than any other free agent with Theriot (who started most of last year) still around
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  5. #30
    4 Giants win Gibby Awards

    Greatness in Baseball Yearly Awards went to catcher Buster Posey (Comeback Player of the Year), right-hander Sergio Romo (top setup reliever), third baseman Pablo Sandoval (postseason Most Valuable Player) and right-hander Matt Cain (pitching performance of the year).

    http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/n...ews_sf&c_id=sf
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  6. #31
    Scutaro on board for 3 years
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  7. #32
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    In a classic "what the heck" move by Sabean, the Giants have signed Andes Torres to a one year deal: http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/1...andres-torres/

    Not sure how he works into the lineup, but at least he's cheap.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  8. #33
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    So while the Dodgers are spending money like the U.S. Department of Defense the Giants are signing players like Andres Torres. It should be an interesting 2013 season.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  9. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    In a classic "what the heck" move by Sabean, the Giants have signed Andes Torres to a one year deal: http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/1...andres-torres/

    Not sure how he works into the lineup, but at least he's cheap.
    superb fielder, base runner and small ball player
    hits well as a RH (Blanco does poor against exceptional LHP)
    great clubhouse and team chemistry guy
    can play all 3 OF positions

    att park is a park for small ball guys

    I like it
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    superb fielder, base runner and small ball player
    hits well as a RH (Blanco does poor against exceptional LHP)
    great clubhouse and team chemistry guy
    can play all 3 OF positions

    att park is a park for small ball guys

    I like it
    I like Torres. Gald to hear he is back. If he can return to his 2009-10 form he'll be a huge asset. One major concern i have is that he'll be 35 years old next season.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  11. #36
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    Torres is a good guy, but to be honest, I don't hold out much hope that he's going to be much help. But I'd love to be wrong about that.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  12. #37
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    Looks like the Giants came to terms on a 3yr./15 mil deal with Santiago Casilla. I like this move, especially since Wilson is likely to move on.
    Last edited by KHenry14; 12-17-2012 at 08:35 PM.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    Looks like the Giants came to terms on a 3yr./15 mil deal with Santiago Casilla. I like this move, especially since Wilson is likely to move on.
    For a different view on the signing, from a Sabremetric standpoint is this: http://stangraphs.com/2012/12/18/con...-of-relievers/

    First, I don't know what the heck this guy means about the Giants "random" WS wins. And I sure as heck don't know what in the world the stat xFIP is, but I don't give a darn what this guy thinks. He seems to think that we can just pull a guy out of nowhere to do what Casilla did. Sure, Santiago walks more guys than I'd like, but so did Wilson. Casilla can also close, and with Romo's arm, we need guys who can step into that role if need be. Relief may be the "least important" part of any team. But the Giants win WS titles because of timely hitting and one of the best pitching staffs in MLB, and Casilla is part of that. And this is more important since Wilson isn't likely to be part of the team.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  14. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    For a different view on the signing, from a Sabremetric standpoint is this: http://stangraphs.com/2012/12/18/con...-of-relievers/

    First, I don't know what the heck this guy means about the Giants "random" WS wins. And I sure as heck don't know what in the world the stat xFIP is, but I don't give a darn what this guy thinks.
    Ignorance is always a good reason to dismiss something.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...pitching/xfip/

  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Ignorance is always a good reason to dismiss something.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...pitching/xfip/
    Stats are a tool. So are eyes. IMO, we need both. And I admit that I am a bit fed up with whatever the next stat of the week is, too often a stat is invented not because it is needed, but because someone could figure out a new stat, so he did it. With that said, my assessment of players, both current and historical, will never be based solely upon numbers. And that's my decision. If that makes me ignorant in your opinion, so be it.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  16. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    Stats are a tool. So are eyes. IMO, we need both. And I admit that I am a bit fed up with whatever the next stat of the week is, too often a stat is invented not because it is needed, but because someone could figure out a new stat, so he did it. With that said, my assessment of players, both current and historical, will never be based solely upon numbers. And that's my decision. If that makes me ignorant in your opinion, so be it.
    Everyone is ignorant of something.

    What makes you ignorant of what xFIP is is your admittance that you don't know what it is.

  17. #42
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    KH,

    xFIP is is basically what a pitcher's ERA "should" be. It's a helpful tool but some pitchers can have ERA's much lower than what their xFIP suggests. Matt Cain is a very famous example of this. For years saber dudes couldn't understand why Matt Cain's ERA was much lower than what his xFIP was. Grant Brisbee over at McCovey Chronicles wrote a very poignant and hilarious essay about it back in late 2010. The bolded part is a key point. If Matt Cain's xFIP is the same as Jon Garland and Joe Blanton's xFIP that does NOT mean Cain is is on their level.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Dear Viceroy of Stats,

    First off, thank you for the stats. If I were to do a line graph comparing my love for baseball and the rise of the internet, the two lines would start rising dramatically around 1996 without a single dip. The stats are a big part of that. One of my favorite things in the world is feeling superior to other people. Now when someone references RBI, I know I’m objectively better than them in every capacity. You can’t buy that feeling, and I have stats to thank. Plus, when people argue about "sabermetrics" vs. "sabremetrics", it reminds me of the Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912 joke,and that’s always a good thing.

    But I also remember those early days of the internet stats. No-hit, all-glove wizards were not tolerated. Teams and GMs who signed players like Royce Clayton, Rey Sanchez, and Mike Bordick were mocked without mercy. The new stats, though, tell us that some of those guys had pretty valuable seasons. Jose Vizcaino, for whom I had a strong distaste in 1997, was actually a 2+ win player that year. Well, I’ll be. This isn’t to suggest that because the methods of evaluation have changed, people should discount every innovation because it’s likely to be considered wrong in a decade. Of course not.

    It might not be a bad idea, though, always to assume that stats are likely to contain some measure of imperfection. When I see single-season WAR totals used with a dogmatic certainty, it makes me uneasy. I have a feeling that the formula for WAR will be updated and tinkered for years, if not decades, because it’s surely tricky to combine hitting stats with something as variable as single-season fielding stats to produce a single number. Yet there’s a small faction among us who likes to use single-season WAR as a blunt object. It feels like some folks -- certainly not most or all -- use the stat without the spirit of intellectual curiosity with which it was created.

    So I’ve searched for the most diplomatic way to phrase this, and I think I’ve arrived at something that fair, honest, and non-combative. Here goes: Matt Cain is good, and people who use xFIP as a blunt object can shut their yap holes. The idea of normalizing ERA to account for luck with balls put in play is a fine one. Trying to normalize home runs per fly all is a good idea too. Assuming that the current construct will work as an infallible predictive tool for every single pitcher in professional baseball right now? Not my favorite idea.

    Matt Cain has outperformed his FIP for four straight seasons. He has probably benefited from some measure of luck, especially in 2009, when he beat the mark by a full run. The traditional stat, ERA, indicates that Matt Cain is an elite pitcher. FIP suggests that Cain is merely very good. That’s a fair debate. Pitchers can do that sort of thing for an entire career, but they’re the exceptions, not the rules. The burden of proof would probably be on the person suggesting that Cain is elite.

    However, xFIP suggests that Matt Cain is an innings-eater of the most ordinary capacity, like a Jon Garland or a Joe Blanton. Matt Cain’s career xFIP is 4.43, and aaaaaaany day now, his ERA will regress to meet that mark. Some people pounce on that, and they froth at the mention of Matt Cain as a top pitcher. And I’m forced to react like a troglodyte, mentioning that a) I’VE TOTALLY WATCHED, LIKE, EVERY ONE OF HIS STARTS, AND MY EYES ARE MORE BETTER THAN YOUR STATS, and b) but his ERA! I don’t like both of those arguments. I can link to a study by the wizard who actually invented FIP, which acknowledges that there could be outliers like Cain when calculating xFIP, but because the math hurts my brain, I can’t do anything but appeal to his authority.

    It feels like with some folks, you get "Matt Cain’s xFIP is this. His ERA is that. The difference means there is something wrong with Matt Cain." I would like more, "Matt Cain’s xFIP is this. His ERA is that. Maybe there’s something that makes this happen every year." That’s all. I would just like the small, vocal minority to use stats like WAR, FIP, and xFIP as useful tools, not divinely inspired scripture just yet. Please command them to do so with your powers as Viceroy of Stats.


    I would like to end this open letter by noting that Matt Cain did not allow an earned run this postseason, and contrary to popular belief, that performance has tremendous predictive value. I predict that in 20 years, Matt Cain’s performance in the 2010 playoffs will still have been totally awesome.

    Sincerely,
    Some English Major
    Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 12-19-2012 at 02:41 PM.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  18. #43
    xFIP is FIP (see video)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g

    with a normalized home run rate.


    Cain somehow has the ability to have a well-below average HR rate. Most pitchers can't sustain that.

  19. #44
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    That's why I hate a lot of these advanced metrics. Any stat that equates Matt Cain to Joe Blanton is just plain wrong.

    And just look at the discussions we have over WAR on this site to understand why this stuff grates on me.

    BTW, I've spent time at FanGraphs and my head hurts after every visit. Frankly, advanced stats just flat out take the fun out of the game for me.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  20. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    Frankly, advanced stats just flat out take the fun out of the game for me.
    That's fine. Not everyone thinks the same things are fun.

    If you think that there's a front office in major leagues that doesn't use advanced stats though, you're wrong.

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    That's fine. Not everyone thinks the same things are fun.

    If you think that there's a front office in major leagues that doesn't use advanced stats though, you're wrong.
    Well the Minnesota Twins don't seem to know much about "advanced stats".

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...t-sabermetrics

    With the Twin's recent demise it seems they are getting criticized for not using sabermetrics.

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...thods-dont-add
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    If you think that there's a front office in major leagues that doesn't use advanced stats though, you're wrong.
    Never said that. I'm sure they all do to one degree or another. I would be curious to know to how GM's factor in advanced stats into the decision making process though.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  23. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Well the Minnesota Twins don't seem to know much about "advanced stats".

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...t-sabermetrics

    With the Twin's recent demise it seems they are getting criticized for not using sabermetrics.

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...thods-dont-add
    http://twinsdaily.com/1278-where-twi...-analysis.html
    When asked how he feels that the outsider perception of the Twins’ use of statistical analysis is behind the rest of the game, Jack Goin, the team’s Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, simply replied “That’s fine.”

    Goin cites the St. Louis Cardinals as an example of how he wants his operations to be viewed. Whereas teams like Tampa, Cleveland, Boston and New York have been well-known and forthright about their endeavors into the statistical world, the Cardinals have been extremely stealth yet very much active in research. If it were up to him, he would just as rather have people continuing to overlook the team while they continue to improve.

    One way in which they have progressed in just a few shorts years is that Goin has turned to MLBAM’s Pitch F/X system – a relative unknown to the staff as recently has 2010 – when attempting to analyze potential free agent pitchers.

    “We used it just a few weeks ago on a free agent pitcher we were looking at. We were talking about his sinker and trying to figure out what’s going on with it. He had been injured the last few years and we were trying to figure out where that sinker is in terms of when it was really good and where it is now. So we looked at it and tried to figure out how much vertical break was on it and how much horizontal break was on it and tried to distinguish some of the contact rates.”

  24. #49
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    Got to hear the Twins are finally embracing new ways of doing business.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  25. #50
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    Man, I really wish the Giants could pry outfielder Adam Eaton from the Arizona D-Backs. The D-Backs, apparently, are not sold on Eaton as a everyday regular. But the kid can really play. Come on Brian Sabean, get Adam Eaton!

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...a-diamondbacks

    http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/9/4/329...rospect-roster
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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