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Thread: How many players received 45% of the Writers' vote but never got in?

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    How many players received 45% of the Writers' vote but never got in?

    How many players have received 45% (or more) of the BBWAA vote for the Hall in any one year without ever making it in? (Either by a later vote of the Writers or via the Veteran's Committee.)

    (This is not intended as a trivia question, I'm really wondering how often this has happened.)
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-08-2012 at 05:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    How many players have received 45% (or more) of the BBWAA vote for the Hall in any one year without ever making it in? (Either by a later vote of the Writers or via the Veteran's Committee.)

    (This is not intended as a trivia question, I'm really wondering how often this has happened.)
    Off the top of my head, Gil Hodges. I think he got as high as 62% or so, IIRC. [Edit: He peaked at 63.4%; he got better than 45% thirteen out of fifteen years on the ballot]

    There's also guys like Jack Morris and Lee Smith, who are still on the ballot.
    Last edited by Cougar; 11-08-2012 at 05:34 PM.

  3. #3
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw...-history.shtml

    This will give you the top 8 for each year, usually digging down below 45%. Click on the year link for the full ballot when the top 8 is insufficient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw...-history.shtml

    This will give you the top 8 for each year, usually digging down below 45%. Click on the year link for the full ballot when the top 8 is insufficient.
    Man, I was looking for something like that...

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    There are two that have exhausted their BBWAA eligibility that I see from that source: Hodges and Oliva. There are four I see who are still on the BBWAA ballot: Raines, Lee Smith, Bagwell and Jack Morris.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  6. #6
    Here's a question...

    Miller Huggins received over 45% a few times (1942 & 1945). But was he being considered for total contributions here? Or just as a player at time?

    If he was just being voted on as a player only (which I kind of doubt), then he would be an example of a player who received 45% but never never got in as a player.

  7. #7
    Okay, looks like I've found the answer, in a Hardball Times article by Don Malcolm dated 01/07/2009: Hall of Fame, Hall of Mirrors. Players not enshrined despite at least once receiving 45% or more of the BBWAA vote are Hodges (max 63%), Oliva (max 47%), and Lee Smith (max 45%).
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-10-2012 at 08:10 AM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    Okay, looks like I've found the answer, in a Hardball Times article by Don Malcolm dated 01/07/2009: Hall of Fame, Hall of Mirrors. Players not enshrined despite at least once receiving 45% or more of the BBWAA vote are Hodges (max 63%), Oliva (max 47%), and Lee Smith (max 45%).
    Since '09, Raines (49), Bagwell (56) and Morris (67) (Smith (51)). I suppose some of these will make it eventually, but Smith might be one of them.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Since '09, Raines (49), Bagwell (56) and Morris (67) (Smith (51)). I suppose some of these will make it eventually, but Smith might be one of them.
    Right.

    Basically, every player - except Tony Oliva - who has received 45% or more of the Writers' vote is either (1) in already or (2) still under active consideration. (Hodges is due to be considered again by the Golden Era VC in 2014.)
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-12-2012 at 02:31 PM.

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    Does this means that Oliva deserves to be in the HOF? He was equal to Clemente in hitting stats, although with a shorter career. And he didn't have the defense to boot. I think his case is more of a feel good story about the 60's Twins.
    "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
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  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by yankillaz View Post
    Does this means that Oliva deserves to be in the HOF? He was equal to Clemente in hitting stats, although with a shorter career. And he didn't have the defense to boot. I think his case is more of a feel good story about the 60's Twins.
    His case is a feel terrible story. I was an old school fan at the time, and when Tony came along, I thought, "Here's a guy who not only does it right, but does it so well that others are going to start doing it the same way." I was young and naive, but when he tore up his knee it broke my heart.

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    Tony Oliva should be in the HOF and it's ridiculous that he isn't. He had a devastating knee injury in 1972, and played 4 more seasons that soured his career stats. Before the injury, he was simply sensational.

    From 1964-71 he was .313/.361/.507 OPS+ 141 8 straight all-star games , 2X MVP runnerup, 2 more top 6 finishes, ROY (should have been 64 MVP), GG, 3X batting leader, 5X hits leader, 4X doubles leader, 71 slugging leader, and 64 TB leader.

    I grew up watching this guy on TV, he just ripped.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    Tony Oliva should be in the HOF and it's ridiculous that he isn't. He had a devastating knee injury in 1972, and played 4 more seasons that soured his career stats. Before the injury, he was simply sensational.

    From 1964-71 he was .313/.361/.507 OPS+ 141 8 straight all-star games , 2X MVP runnerup, 2 more top 6 finishes, ROY (should have been 64 MVP), GG, 3X batting leader, 5X hits leader, 4X doubles leader, 71 slugging leader, and 64 TB leader.

    I grew up watching this guy on TV, he just ripped.
    The Hall of Fame is not kind to corner outfielders with short careers, probably because there are so many already in with long careers. If Tony got in, he'd be comparable to Chick Hafey and Ross Youngs.

    If he got in, well, it would be about time that he caught a break. He didn't get going until he was 25 and turned into Sean Casey at 32, and it seemed like all the way along he was met with frustrations and disappointment, which he bore stoically. (See his SABR biography.) But for those eight years he was something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    The Hall of Fame is not kind to corner outfielders with short careers, probably because there are so many already in with long careers. If Tony got in, he'd be comparable to Chick Hafey and Ross Youngs.

    If he got in, well, it would be about time that he caught a break. He didn't get going until he was 25 and turned into Sean Casey at 32, and it seemed like all the way along he was met with frustrations and disappointment, which he bore stoically. (See his SABR biography.) But for those eight years he was something.
    Every case should be looked at individually. Oliva belongs

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    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    Every case should be looked at individually.
    Unfortunately, many actual HOF voters share this mindset of ignoring precedent.
    Eradicate, wipe out and abolish redundancy.

    Free El Duque!(and Mark Mulder) -- discover how the HOF rules are cheating this renowned member of Torre's Yankees dynasty and ask the HOF to include him on the ballot for the next BBWAA election.

  16. #16
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 11-14-2012 at 01:06 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    I gotta admit, your post is great but Dykstra? On a serious note, If I was a voter in the 80's I don't think I would have voted him. He's probably deserving to Minnesota fans and to baby boomers but I never looked at him as a real hofer. I'm a small hof guy and if you put this guy in you need to put more WW2 service guys in too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    Oliva was more dominant in his time, a large part of which was the 63-68 ERA era; than Mattingly. Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance.

  19. #19
    I'd be happy if he got in, but I wouldn't holler "foul!" if he didn't. There are better outside and worse in. He was one of my favorite players and had more than his share of adversity.

    Most of the players on Dr. Strangelove's list appeal to me about as much or more. But I don't see choices as mutually exclusive or a matter of precedence. If Tony does get in, that may make it easier for someone to say, "Hey, what about Keller?"

    But I don't get these thumping pronouncements: "Oliva belongs," "Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance." Did you uncover some brazen tablets where this is all written down? Is the evidence too obvious to point out to anyone of intelligence, or is it too abstruse to explain to anyone dumb enough to need an explanation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    I'd be happy if he got in, but I wouldn't holler "foul!" if he didn't. There are better outside and worse in. He was one of my favorite players and had more than his share of adversity.

    Most of the players on Dr. Strangelove's list appeal to me about as much or more. But I don't see choices as mutually exclusive or a matter of precedence. If Tony does get in, that may make it easier for someone to say, "Hey, what about Keller?"

    But I don't get these thumping pronouncements: "Oliva belongs," "Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance." Did you uncover some brazen tablets where this is all written down? Is the evidence too obvious to point out to anyone of intelligence, or is it too abstruse to explain to anyone dumb enough to need an explanation?
    I'd say that since the Hall is about 230-240 players strong, if a guy is in the top 230-250, it's reasonable to claim he's met the Hall's standard. See my next post in this thread for how I apply that kind of reasoning to Oliva's case.
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    I'll now add Tony Oliva to a discussion I've had about Minoso and Albert Belle, adding a few more data points. Oliva will appear in red

    My argument for Minoso is that I look mostly at four benchmarks, and Minoso does well by those measures, even without much help due to integration issues. Minoso may have "come up" at 23, but really didn't get to play in the majors until age 26. I think he lost at least 2-2 1/2 years that he would have had in a fully integrated game.

    I look for 30 WAA when below average seasons are zeroed out, and in his major league career, Minoso scored 30.4, Belle 20.5 Oliva 25.8
    I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, and Minoso meets that exactly, Belle 13.5, Oliva 13.4
    I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and Minoso bests that with a 18.7 mark, Belle 17.2, Oliva 16.3
    I look for 50 WAR, and he's at 47.5, and he'd probably make that with even one more full year in the majors. Belle 36.9, Oliva 39.7

    So, in essence, Minoso meets all four benchmarks, and that's enough for me. But look at his season by season excellence:

    7 years an all-star; Belle 5 Oliva 8
    1.90 MVP shares, Belle 2.38, Oliva 1.90
    15 points of black ink, Belle 28, Oliva 41 note: average HOFer mark is 27
    189 points of gray ink, Belle 137, Oliva 146 note: average HOFer mark is 144
    35 HOF standards, Belle 36, Oliva 29 note: average HOFer mark is 50
    3 Gold Gloves, Belle 0, Oliva 1
    8 times in the top 10 in WAR among position players; Belle 4, Oliva 4
    9 times in the top 10 in on base percentage; Belle 2, Oliva 3
    9 times in the top 10 in runs scored; Belle 4, Oliva 5
    8 times in the top 10 of OBP + Slg; Belle 5, Oliva 6
    5 times in the top 10 in RBI; and Belle 8, Oliva 6
    8 times in the top 10 in average. Belle 3, Oliva 8
    6 times in the top 10 in slugging percentage, Belle 6, Oliva 7

    I can't put Oliva at the top of this trio. My own take on Oliva is that his 45-50% maximum percentage of the BBWAA vote pretty well captures his case. About half the folks think he was HOF caliber, the other half don't--but the Hall requires 75% to agree. Oliva is deserving of the degree of support he got from the BBWAA, and as such is a guy who definitely belongs in the discussion. However, 45% of the BBWAA vote, like any one or even two of the stats cited above shouldn't automatically entitle the guy to a plaque. IMHO, Oliva is close, but no cigar (or plaque, if you prefer).
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    Every case should be looked at individually. Oliva belongs
    Quote Originally Posted by Freakshow View Post
    Unfortunately, many actual HOF voters share this mindset of ignoring precedent.
    As Freakshow indicates, there is a place for precedent and comparing players to their peers and other players. Ignoring whether the guy you want to induct is at least arguably the best or at least among the very best not in the Hall is a great way to make mistakes of the Jesse Haines and Chick Hafey variety. However, we must also be mindful of the fact the Hall has made some lulus of mistakes, and those mistakes must be ignored as precedent, lest the Hall need to grow to three or four times its current number of inductees.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  23. #23
    Trying again: Here are all the postwar corner outfielders with WAR and OPS+ within five of Tony Oliva.

    Code:
    Player Name	PA	WAR	OPS+	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS
    Matt Holliday	5517	35.8	137	.313	.387	.536	.923	1293	4878	846	1525	344	29	229	872	527	42	924	81	1	30	137	95	34
    Roger Maris	5847	36.2	127	.260	.345	.476	.822	1463	5101	826	1325	195	42	275	850	652	42	733	38	12	43	75	21	9
    David Justice	6602	37.6	129	.279	.378	.500	.878	1610	5625	929	1571	280	24	305	1017	903	85	999	18	1	54	101	53	46
    Tony Oliva	6880	39.7	131	.304	.353	.476	.830	1676	6301	870	1917	329	48	220	947	448	131	645	59	14	57	139	86	55
    Tim Salmon	7039	37.1	128	.282	.385	.498	.884	1672	5934	986	1674	339	24	299	1016	970	45	1360	67	0	68	98	48	42
    Juan Gonzalez	7155	35.1	132	.295	.343	.561	.904	1689	6556	1061	1936	388	25	434	1404	457	74	1273	62	2	78	184	26	19
    Rocky Colavito	7559	41.7	132	.266	.359	.489	.848	1841	6503	971	1730	283	21	374	1159	951	58	880	29	16	60	182	19	27
    George Foster	7812	41.3	126	.274	.338	.480	.818	1977	7023	986	1925	307	47	348	1239	666	106	1419	52	3	68	196	51	31
    Moises Alou	7913	36.7	128	.303	.369	.516	.885	1942	7037	1109	2134	421	39	332	1287	737	91	894	48	9	82	195	106	37
    Jose Canseco	8129	39.2	132	.266	.353	.515	.867	1887	7057	1186	1877	340	14	462	1407	906	63	1942	84	1	81	178	200	88
    Ken Singleton	8559	38.6	132	.282	.388	.436	.824	2082	7189	985	2029	317	25	246	1065	1263	125	1246	17	29	60	248	21	36
    Jim Rice	9058	44.3	128	.298	.352	.502	.854	2089	8225	1249	2452	373	79	382	1451	670	77	1423	64	5	94	315	58	34
    Last edited by Jackaroo Dave; 11-14-2012 at 09:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jalbright View Post
    As Freakshow indicates, there is a place for precedent and comparing players to their peers and other players. Ignoring whether the guy you want to induct is at least arguably the best or at least among the very best not in the Hall is a great way to make mistakes of the Jesse Haines and Chick Hafey variety. However, we must also be mindful of the fact the Hall has made some lulus of mistakes, and those mistakes must be ignored as precedent, lest the Hall need to grow to three or four times its current number of inductees.
    I don't buy it. It's not the Hall of Quantified Stats, nor is it the Hall of Logic and Reason. It's always been subjective and should continue to be so. If a player was incredibly dominant for almost a decade and then his career is disabled, I don't see a problem with his induction. And YES, every case should be judged individually. How is that a bad thing? Also, everyone has their pet players and my assertion that "Oliva Belongs" has as much merit as anything as long as the hall is (rightfully so) subjective. When there is a statisical criteria for HOF induction, I will (besides throwing up) cease to be a fan. The sabers will have then won and there will no need for for a hot stove league or even a baseball forum. I will never apologize for having an emotional attachment to being a baseball fan. When being a fan means being a mathematician, that will be sad. Believe me, I've come a long way, in my look at modern stats, but baseball is still played by human beings.

    And OLIVA BELONGS!! I can't see how his inclusion would open the floodgates for 750 or 1000 more players. That's just silly.
    Last edited by JR Hart; 11-14-2012 at 08:54 PM.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by jalbright View Post
    I'd say that since the Hall is about 230-240 players strong, if a guy is in the top 230-250, it's reasonable to claim he's met the Hall's standard. See my next post in this thread for how I apply that kind of reasoning to Oliva's case.
    I don't have an issue with this at all. I think the point I'd make is that there are a fair number of players who fit this definition. I wouldn't put Oliva at the top of the list, but I wouldn't mind at all if they took in 10-12 and he was one of them. If you took Oliva, Colavito, Bonds in the outfield, Nettles, Whitaker, Trammel and Mattingly in the infield, with Munson catching, assuming they were healthy, and an average pitching staff, they'd win 100-110 games a season 10 years in a row. These were exceptional players.

    He was indeed quite special and we can all admit that his injury drastically affected his career.
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 11-14-2012 at 09:13 PM.

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