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Thread: How many players received 45% of the Writers' vote but never got in?

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    How many players received 45% of the Writers' vote but never got in?

    How many players have received 45% (or more) of the BBWAA vote for the Hall in any one year without ever making it in? (Either by a later vote of the Writers or via the Veteran's Committee.)

    (This is not intended as a trivia question, I'm really wondering how often this has happened.)
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-08-2012 at 05:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    How many players have received 45% (or more) of the BBWAA vote for the Hall in any one year without ever making it in? (Either by a later vote of the Writers or via the Veteran's Committee.)

    (This is not intended as a trivia question, I'm really wondering how often this has happened.)
    Off the top of my head, Gil Hodges. I think he got as high as 62% or so, IIRC. [Edit: He peaked at 63.4%; he got better than 45% thirteen out of fifteen years on the ballot]

    There's also guys like Jack Morris and Lee Smith, who are still on the ballot.
    Last edited by Cougar; 11-08-2012 at 05:34 PM.

  3. #3
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw...-history.shtml

    This will give you the top 8 for each year, usually digging down below 45%. Click on the year link for the full ballot when the top 8 is insufficient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/aw...-history.shtml

    This will give you the top 8 for each year, usually digging down below 45%. Click on the year link for the full ballot when the top 8 is insufficient.
    Man, I was looking for something like that...

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    There are two that have exhausted their BBWAA eligibility that I see from that source: Hodges and Oliva. There are four I see who are still on the BBWAA ballot: Raines, Lee Smith, Bagwell and Jack Morris.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  6. #6
    Here's a question...

    Miller Huggins received over 45% a few times (1942 & 1945). But was he being considered for total contributions here? Or just as a player at time?

    If he was just being voted on as a player only (which I kind of doubt), then he would be an example of a player who received 45% but never never got in as a player.

  7. #7
    Okay, looks like I've found the answer, in a Hardball Times article by Don Malcolm dated 01/07/2009: Hall of Fame, Hall of Mirrors. Players not enshrined despite at least once receiving 45% or more of the BBWAA vote are Hodges (max 63%), Oliva (max 47%), and Lee Smith (max 45%).
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-10-2012 at 08:10 AM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by westsidegrounds View Post
    Okay, looks like I've found the answer, in a Hardball Times article by Don Malcolm dated 01/07/2009: Hall of Fame, Hall of Mirrors. Players not enshrined despite at least once receiving 45% or more of the BBWAA vote are Hodges (max 63%), Oliva (max 47%), and Lee Smith (max 45%).
    Since '09, Raines (49), Bagwell (56) and Morris (67) (Smith (51)). I suppose some of these will make it eventually, but Smith might be one of them.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Since '09, Raines (49), Bagwell (56) and Morris (67) (Smith (51)). I suppose some of these will make it eventually, but Smith might be one of them.
    Right.

    Basically, every player - except Tony Oliva - who has received 45% or more of the Writers' vote is either (1) in already or (2) still under active consideration. (Hodges is due to be considered again by the Golden Era VC in 2014.)
    Last edited by westsidegrounds; 11-12-2012 at 02:31 PM.

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    Does this means that Oliva deserves to be in the HOF? He was equal to Clemente in hitting stats, although with a shorter career. And he didn't have the defense to boot. I think his case is more of a feel good story about the 60's Twins.
    "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
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  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by yankillaz View Post
    Does this means that Oliva deserves to be in the HOF? He was equal to Clemente in hitting stats, although with a shorter career. And he didn't have the defense to boot. I think his case is more of a feel good story about the 60's Twins.
    His case is a feel terrible story. I was an old school fan at the time, and when Tony came along, I thought, "Here's a guy who not only does it right, but does it so well that others are going to start doing it the same way." I was young and naive, but when he tore up his knee it broke my heart.

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    Tony Oliva should be in the HOF and it's ridiculous that he isn't. He had a devastating knee injury in 1972, and played 4 more seasons that soured his career stats. Before the injury, he was simply sensational.

    From 1964-71 he was .313/.361/.507 OPS+ 141 8 straight all-star games , 2X MVP runnerup, 2 more top 6 finishes, ROY (should have been 64 MVP), GG, 3X batting leader, 5X hits leader, 4X doubles leader, 71 slugging leader, and 64 TB leader.

    I grew up watching this guy on TV, he just ripped.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    Tony Oliva should be in the HOF and it's ridiculous that he isn't. He had a devastating knee injury in 1972, and played 4 more seasons that soured his career stats. Before the injury, he was simply sensational.

    From 1964-71 he was .313/.361/.507 OPS+ 141 8 straight all-star games , 2X MVP runnerup, 2 more top 6 finishes, ROY (should have been 64 MVP), GG, 3X batting leader, 5X hits leader, 4X doubles leader, 71 slugging leader, and 64 TB leader.

    I grew up watching this guy on TV, he just ripped.
    The Hall of Fame is not kind to corner outfielders with short careers, probably because there are so many already in with long careers. If Tony got in, he'd be comparable to Chick Hafey and Ross Youngs.

    If he got in, well, it would be about time that he caught a break. He didn't get going until he was 25 and turned into Sean Casey at 32, and it seemed like all the way along he was met with frustrations and disappointment, which he bore stoically. (See his SABR biography.) But for those eight years he was something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    The Hall of Fame is not kind to corner outfielders with short careers, probably because there are so many already in with long careers. If Tony got in, he'd be comparable to Chick Hafey and Ross Youngs.

    If he got in, well, it would be about time that he caught a break. He didn't get going until he was 25 and turned into Sean Casey at 32, and it seemed like all the way along he was met with frustrations and disappointment, which he bore stoically. (See his SABR biography.) But for those eight years he was something.
    Every case should be looked at individually. Oliva belongs

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    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    Every case should be looked at individually.
    Unfortunately, many actual HOF voters share this mindset of ignoring precedent.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  16. #16
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 11-14-2012 at 01:06 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    I gotta admit, your post is great but Dykstra? On a serious note, If I was a voter in the 80's I don't think I would have voted him. He's probably deserving to Minnesota fans and to baby boomers but I never looked at him as a real hofer. I'm a small hof guy and if you put this guy in you need to put more WW2 service guys in too.
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    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Oliva belongs.

    Right after Mattingly, Dysktra, Colavito, Munson, Bernie Williams, Robin Ventura, Bobby Bonds, Ken Boyer, Reggie Smith, Willie Randolph, Tim Raines, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans, Trammel, Whitaker, Dick Allen, and Bagwell. (I'm skipping pitchers.)

    Mattingly is all but identical to Oliva in WAR, having a long stretch of productive seasons, then having a devastating injury that severely reduced his productivity. Munson obviously even more so.

    I would vote for Keller over all of them if I wanted a feel good vote. He was a great player, lost almost 2 years to the war, then got injured. He played 500 games less than Oliva and still had more WAR.


    Oliva was a very good player who had a tough break. But there were other players who were just as good who played whole careers and were equally productive for whole careers. And there were some who were better who had worse breaks.
    Oliva was more dominant in his time, a large part of which was the 63-68 ERA era; than Mattingly. Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance.

  19. #19
    I'd be happy if he got in, but I wouldn't holler "foul!" if he didn't. There are better outside and worse in. He was one of my favorite players and had more than his share of adversity.

    Most of the players on Dr. Strangelove's list appeal to me about as much or more. But I don't see choices as mutually exclusive or a matter of precedence. If Tony does get in, that may make it easier for someone to say, "Hey, what about Keller?"

    But I don't get these thumping pronouncements: "Oliva belongs," "Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance." Did you uncover some brazen tablets where this is all written down? Is the evidence too obvious to point out to anyone of intelligence, or is it too abstruse to explain to anyone dumb enough to need an explanation?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    I'd be happy if he got in, but I wouldn't holler "foul!" if he didn't. There are better outside and worse in. He was one of my favorite players and had more than his share of adversity.

    Most of the players on Dr. Strangelove's list appeal to me about as much or more. But I don't see choices as mutually exclusive or a matter of precedence. If Tony does get in, that may make it easier for someone to say, "Hey, what about Keller?"

    But I don't get these thumping pronouncements: "Oliva belongs," "Oliva's peak value is sufficient for admittance." Did you uncover some brazen tablets where this is all written down? Is the evidence too obvious to point out to anyone of intelligence, or is it too abstruse to explain to anyone dumb enough to need an explanation?
    I'd say that since the Hall is about 230-240 players strong, if a guy is in the top 230-250, it's reasonable to claim he's met the Hall's standard. See my next post in this thread for how I apply that kind of reasoning to Oliva's case.
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