The MVP and the HOF

[Fuzzy Bear]

As of this writing, the AL has selected a HOFer for MVP 46 times; 25 times they have selected a non-HOFer, with the other years filled by folks who are ineligible for the HOF. The NL has a rate of 42-27 in favor of HOFers with other winners not eligible for the HOF (including Pete Rose, who won the award once).

Only two MULTIPLE MVP winners have not been selected to the HOF that are eligible; Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez. Murphy is in his final year of eligibility and hasn't gontten that much traction.

On it's face, winning an MVP indicates that your chances of making the HOF are 60-65%. To what degree does winning the MVP award contribute to a player's selection to the HOF?

[jalbright]

It's better than a Cy Young, that's for sure. Excluding banned players and guys with strong PED issues, you've got to go to Juan Gonzalez for the most MVP shares to be excluded, and he's in the 40's. Bret Saberhagen is only 12th in Cy Young shares, and he's out. Even allowing twice as many position players as pitchers, that's definitely tilted toward MVPs.

It's a heck of a selling point for a player to have been considered among the best in the game. Now a guy who has one fluky MVP or Cy Young award season (basically defined as one that just stands way out above the level of the other seasons in his career), it doesn't matter much. But if a guy follows up one of those award winning seasons with five or six other All-Star quality seasons, it becomes very hard to dismiss the guy. Assuming there's some other seasons to back it up, it's more valuable the greater the consensus that he was one of the two or three best in the game that year, the more it helps. If a guy wins a badly split MVP vote, it doesn't carry the same weight.

[Cowtipper]

Roger Maris also won two MVPs.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As of this writing, the AL has selected a HOFer for MVP 46 times; 25 times they have selected a non-HOFer, with the other years filled by folks who are ineligible for the HOF. The NL has a rate of 42-27 in favor of HOFers with other winners not eligible for the HOF (including Pete Rose, who won the award once).

Only two MULTIPLE MVP winners have not been selected to the HOF that are eligible; Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzalez. Murphy is in his final year of eligibility and hasn't gontten that much traction.

On it's face, winning an MVP indicates that your chances of making the HOF are 60-65%. To what degree does winning the MVP award contribute to a player's selection to the HOF?

Cowtipper reminded me of Maris's 2 MVPs, so that's 3 Multiple MVP winners not in the HOF that are eligible

[The Commissioner]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

[Bigfoot 88]

Roger Maris vs. Dale Murphy Hall of Fame voting.

Maris:
1974 BBWAA (21.4%)
1975 BBWAA (19.3%)
1976 BBWAA (22.4%)
1977 BBWAA (21.4%)
1978 BBWAA (21.9%)
1979 BBWAA (29.4%)
1980 BBWAA (28.8%)
1981 BBWAA (23.4%)
1982 BBWAA (16.6%)
1983 BBWAA (18.4%)
1984 BBWAA (26.6%)
1985 BBWAA (32.4%)
1986 BBWAA (41.6%)
1987 BBWAA (42.6%)
1988 BBWAA (43.1%)

Murphy:
1999 BBWAA (19.3%)
2000 BBWAA (23.2%)
2001 BBWAA (18.1%)
2002 BBWAA (14.8%)
2003 BBWAA (11.7%)
2004 BBWAA ( 8.5%)
2005 BBWAA (10.5%)
2006 BBWAA (10.8%)
2007 BBWAA ( 9.2%)
2008 BBWAA (13.8%)
2009 BBWAA (11.5%)
2010 BBWAA (11.7%)
2011 BBWAA (12.6%)
2012 BBWAA (14.5%)

[dgarza]

It's better than a Cy Young, that's for sure.

Saberhagen and McLain are the 2 multiple CY winners who have been Hall eligible who have not made the Hall, and they were (in terms of support) both one and done. [McLain was on the BBWAA ballot a few times, but always received less than 1% support.]

[dgarza]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

I think at if he also saw better post-season days, he would have gotten more support.

The Braves were pretty well swept in the 1982 NLCS. And even though he was all but done while in Philly, he was released just days prior to Opening Day of the Phillies 1993 World Series run.

[The Commissioner]

I think at if he also saw better post-season days, he would have gotten more support.

The Braves were pretty well swept in the 1982 NLCS. And even though he was all but done while in Philly, he was released just days prior to Opening Day of the Phillies 1993 World Series run.

Excellent point. Unfortunately for him, some of his best seasons were when the rest of team was just plain bad. A few of those years, the Braves finished 20+ games behind in the standings. 1985 would be the quintessential example. That year he led the N.L. in HRs, runs scored, and walks. He finished 2nd in RBI and total bases, and hit .300. He would have finished higher than 7th in the M.V.P. race had the Braves not finished 29 games out of first place.

[henrich]

To your point, if Larkin doesn't win his mvp in '95, he would have fallen short from induction IMO. I think he would have been compared to another Red-Davey Concepcion. That may not be fair, perhaps closer to Alan Trammell.

[Ben Grimm]

Of course in a couple of years we'll have Frank Thomas on teh ballot and he's questionable based on two things.... 1) he played during the PED era so there will be questions of that, and 2) he played more games as a DH than anywhere else. His overall body of work is almost impossible to pass on, but there are members of the BBWAA that have their own agendas.

[henrich]

true on thomas, but i'd vote for him without batting an eye.

[Brooklyn]

Any of the three make viable candidates. Murphy always surprised me in that he never received more support. I can't help but think that if his batting average didn't take a nose dive near the end of his career, he would already be in Cooperstown. He was definitely one of the elite players of the 1980s. If he finished with a BA maybe 5 or 6 points higher, I believe he's in. Those strikeouts and low BA are acceptable in a guy with Killebrew power totals, but for Murph, depsite the great glove and prowess on the basepaths it wasn't enough.

I'm not sure if retiring earlier would have helped Murphy. he retired in 1993 batting .265 with 398 homeruns, 2111 hits and 1266 RBIs. He would have had to retire 4 years earlier to have left with his average at .270. At the end of 1989, he had 1820 hits, 354 HRs and 1088 RBIs. At the end of the prior year he was at .274 with 334 homeruns, 1689 hits and 1004 RBIs. I don't think his career would have been viewed as good enough to withstand those low counting numbers, unless it had ended by injury.

I actually look at it the other way - I think if he hit 2 more homeruns to get to 400 he would have been looked at very differently.

Growing up in the 80's, Murphy was one of those players that you knew was a HOFer. Another was Garvey. Amazing what 30 years of perspective does

[henrich]

i still think murphy and garvey are hall of famers. Garvey does have a case on par with murphy, albeit different positions.

[JR Hart]

Growing up in the 80's, Murphy was one of those players that you knew was a HOFer. Another was Garvey. Amazing what 30 years of perspective does

I'm totally puzzled by this also. What happened? was it sabermetrics? I was sure that Murphy and Garvey were HOFers at the time that they played. They seemed like no-brainers. I still still think that they are. Baseball is played on the field and not in a math problem. Did anyone think that Bobby Grich was a HOFer when he played? He gets all-kind of support here. And don't even get me started on Darell Evans.

[9&10]

The Big Hurt played during the PED era but has his name ever been mentioned as a potential user? Yes, I suppose you could go out on a limb and say that any player during that era could have been a potential user, but I don't ever recall his name being brought up like like some of his peers.

[JR Hart]

The Big Hurt played during the PED era but has his name ever been mentioned as a potential user? Yes, I suppose you could go out on a limb and say that any player during that era could have been a potential user, but I don't ever recall his name being brought up like like some of his peers.

I don't think that one has to go out on a limb and be skeptical. Remember when AROD was the "clean" poster boy before the leak.

[Los Bravos]

Frank Thomas is not "questionable" for the HOF in any way, shape or form.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Frank Thomas is not "questionable" for the HOF in any way, shape or form.

I agree. I'll be shocked if he isn't elected on his first try.

[PVNICK]

I'm totally puzzled by this also. What happened? was it sabermetrics? I was sure that Murphy and Garvey were HOFers at the time that they played. They seemed like no-brainers. I still still think that they are. Baseball is played on the field and not in a math problem. Did anyone think that Bobby Grich was a HOFer when he played? He gets all-kind of support here. And don't even get me started on Darell Evans.

Murphy faded, much like Mattingly. It's hard when all is said and done to put into the HOF a player who was a regular from 1980-1988. Fred Lynn got compared to Dimaggio for crying out loud, won GGs, ASG MVP, MVP-Rookie of the Year, Batting title, and I see noone bemoaning his absence from the hall.

Garvey had much of his HOF case in the 200 hits, GGs, 100 RBI and the "clean cut, future political candidate image". Once Bill James started in with the he gets 700 PA and has no range articles. People saw what a real GG 1B looked like with Hernandez (and JT Snow). Then when the revelations came out about his personal life the mystique was gone. Grich FWIW was one of the first big money FAs after 1976 along with Reggie and Rudi. Perhaps it was just that he was out at the time or that Autry was spending like mad but I think he has a pretty good reputation back then. Unfortunately he got hurt in '77 and had an off year in 78. People forget the big years he had in '79 and '81 as they had moved on. After that he was solid but often injured.

Evans never lived up to 1973 even though 1974 was a very good season. Then he went to the Giants and was putting up those sub .270 averages with 19 or so HR. I'm sure it was a let down. By his next big season in '83 I'm sure for Giant fans it was a bit of it's about time or too little too late overall.

[yankillaz]

Nice topic.

It got me thinking. What HOFers got some help for being awarded an MVP? A list that looks like this (From the earlier days to today):

1.- Jim Bottomley (1928). Borderline HOFer. His 1928 MVP gave him peak value.
2.- Dizzy Dean (1934). This guy had only 4 good seasons, 1 MVP and 2 2nd place MVP finishes.
3.- Ernie Lombardi (1938). The trophy is named after him.
4.- Joe Gordon (1942). He was a pretty good player. But the Hall isn't for "pretty good". That MVP took him to the HOF.
5.- Hal Newhouser (1944, 1945). He won the MVP on the two weakest offensive seasons ever, because of WWII.
6.- Lou Boudreau (1948). He's in for his managerial prowess too. But this season gave him more credibility as a player.
7.- Phil Rizzuto (1950). Winning an MVP for the Yankees at that time was a sure thing for HOF. VC voted him in, so Mattingly, Munson, Howard and Maris can wait.
8.- Roy Campanella (1951, 1953, 1955). His career totals don't add up, just ask Thurman Munson. But the 3 MVPs, that's automatic induction. (This is why I think Bonds would make it. He won 3 MVPs before his PED took off)
9.- Orlando Cepeda (1967). His career wasn't better than Norm Cash's. But being the MVP of a World Champion helps.
10.- Jim Rice (1978). How many 40 Hrs + 130 rbis season were between 1961 and 1996, sans 1987? Aaron '63, Killebrew '69, Foster '77, Rice '78, Fielder '90. Taking out Aaron and Killebrew, back in 1990, people raved about Foster, Rice and Fielder's seasons. Add New England, and you get a MVP award that proples you to the HOF.
11.- I decided to leave it at 10, but Dawson is a compelling case. His peak wasn't better than Murphy's, but his career was. Career wise, this MVP was the last argument to be made for him as a HOFer.

So yes, I think that MVP voting helps, but some players had nice careers, and the MVP didn't helped them:

1.- Bucky Walters
2.- Bob Elliot
3.- Don Newcombe
4.- Roger Maris
5.- Ken Boyer
6.- Joe Torre
7.- Vida Blue
8.- Steve Garvey
9.- Thurman Munson
10.- Dave Parker
11.- Keith Hernandez
12.- Don Mattingly
13.- Jose Canseco
14.- Juan Gonzalez

[yankillaz]

I agree with you on this one. What happened to the days when one could go to a game,WATCH in person a gifted player at the top of his game and note: "This guy is going to the HOF". This art has been lost. Trust me, Fred McGriff looked like a HOFer to me, and his career supports this.

NOW, don't say that sabermetrics have tarnished the HOF. It hasn't happened yet. If not, some of the players we comment here will get more support from the VC, and it hasn't happened.

[jalbright]

....It got me thinking. What HOFers got some help for being awarded an MVP? A list that looks like this (From the earlier days to today):
...
3.- Ernie Lombardi (1938). The trophy is named after him.

I sincerely hope you're kidding. The Lombardi trophy is football's championship trophy, and named for Vince Lombardi, the Packer coach of the 60's
...

7.- Phil Rizzuto (1950). Winning an MVP for the Yankees at that time was a sure thing for HOF. VC voted him in, so Mattingly, Munson, Howard and Maris can wait.

Rizzuto was helped a great deal by his broadcasting career, which kept him in the spotlight. He also missed time to the service in WW II

8.- Roy Campanella (1951, 1953, 1955). His career totals don't add up, just ask Thurman Munson. But the 3 MVPs, that's automatic induction. (This is why I think Bonds would make it. He won 3 MVPs before his PED took off)

Campy also lost time to the color line, having been an all star in blackball for years before he got to play in the majors. Not his fault his career totals don't add up.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Dizzy Dean got help from being Dizzy Dean. He was baseball's most famous personality not named Babe Ruth. The awards were an after thought, not the root cause.

And were people actually raving about Jim Rice in 1990? People did talk about George Foster, but only because he was the last to hit 50 before Fielder.

You can still go to a game and talk about a player being a HOFer. We do at games and we even do that here. But a personal belief does not necessarily mean it's going to happen. Steve Garvey certainly was thought of as a HOFer. Then you actually looked at what he did compared to so many others as well as those who actually were HOFers and maybe he didn't deserve all those accolades. I'm not even going to go into the clean cut all-american image. He really wasn't as good a hitter as Rod Carew or Eddie Murray. He wasn't the slick fielder Keith Hernandez was. Reality did not measure up to image, and, thankfully, for once it was figured out.

[yankillaz]

I sincerely hope you're kidding. The Lombardi trophy is football's championship trophy, and named for Vince Lombardi, the Packer coach of the 60's

My bad. Still, he didn't have the career accolades. MVP took him over.

Rizzuto was helped a great deal by his broadcasting career, which kept him in the spotlight. He also missed time to the service in WW II

But here in BBF is one of the weakest selections ever. That MVP gave him star cred.

Campy also lost time to the color line, having been an all star in blackball for years before he got to play in the majors. Not his fault his career totals don't add up.

I thought Campanella was in for his MLB career. Didn't know they added with the Negro Leagues. I'm puzzled, my bad.