Results 1 to 20 of 20

Thread: A's Get New SS from Japan!

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438

    A's Get New SS from Japan!

    Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

    http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

    This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

    http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

    This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?
    He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

    I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

    I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.
    Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.
    Pennington had 1 good season and 1 below average season and a partial season in which his peripherals look good but his totals look bad.

    In 2010: Pennington was credited with 3.9 fWAR. He hit .319/.368 (OBP/SLG) for a .308 wOBA which was 9% below league average.
    In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
    In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

    So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
    His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

    2010 BABIP = .296
    2011 BABIP = .314
    2012 BABIP = .259

    His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
    2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
    2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
    2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

    Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

    How about his defense?
    YEAR: UZR
    2010: 8.8
    2011: -6.1
    2012: 10.1

    He had 2 good years and 1 bad year. Defensive stats are more fickle than hitting stats so take them with a grain of salt. He's generally regarded as a good fielder. Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report rated him as a 3.9 out of 5. If we average his 3 years of defense, we get (8.8-6.1+10.1) 4.3. A 'good' defender is usually considered 5 - 10 runs above average. It's possible he's a good defender who had a bad year in 2011, players have bad years offensively, they can have bad ones defensively as well.

    Baserunning, his numbers look like:
    2010: 9.9 runs
    2011: -5.2 runs
    2012: 7.4 runs

    Similar to his defense, he had a bad showing in 2011 but rebounded in 2012. He's probably a 0-5 run base runner.

    Add all of those things together and you get a SS worth between 2 and 3 wins a season. That's totally acceptable for a starter.

    *data FanGraphs
    Last edited by filihok; 12-19-2012 at 12:56 AM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
    I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
    I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.
    What in my 'analysis' do you disagree with?

    I specifically indicated that he has not regressed





    It's almost impossible for Pennington to be a .300 hitter with his K rate.

    Assume 600 plate appearances.
    Pennington K's about 19% of the time and walks about 8% of the time.
    In those 600 PA's Pennington would K 114 times and walk 48 times.
    Taking the 48 BB's away from the PA's leaves 552 at bats (we'll ignore HPB, SF, SH, etc).
    Take away the 114 K's. That leaves 438 balls in play.

    Pennington hits about 6 HR's per year. Take those out of the balls in play (438-6). That leaves 432 balls in play.

    What would he have to hit on those 432 balls in play to hit .300?
    Remember that he has 114 K's which add to his at bats and 6 home runs which also add to his at bats
    That's 552 at bats.
    .300 * 552 = 166 hits.
    6 are home runs.
    That means he needs 160 hits on the 432 balls in play.
    160/432 = .370
    He'd need a .370 BABIP to hit .300.

    His career BABIP is .315

    League average BABIP is around .290

    Highly unlikely he'll ever be a .300 hitter unless he cuts down on his K's or adds a bunch of home runs.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

    In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
    In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

    Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming. We'll have to see his production play out another year so we can trend it.
    Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

    In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
    In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

    Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming.
    So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
    His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

    2010 BABIP = .296
    2011 BABIP = .314
    2012 BABIP = .259

    His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
    2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
    2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
    2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

    Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.
    Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.
    Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young
    LOL. You're right - and I even posted a thread on that topic. I'll blame it on the stroke I had back in February. Sometimes I forget stuff.
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  10. #10

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Location
    Far NE Philadelphia
    Posts
    5,587
    Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.
    Stephen Drew signed a one year contract with the Red Soxs for 9 million. A 2.5 million more than Nakajima's 2 year contract with the A's. I'm rather sceptical about how Japanese profis fare here.

    Matsui Slumpsui didn't help much.

    Cliff Pennington did get clutch hits, despite an off year, and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012. All these unproductive hits in low pressure situations in 2010 and 2011 didn't help much. I liked Ryan Sweeney's near .300 batting averages, but that was a dead end in overall team production. I'm not sold on Nakajima, but it looks like there's no one else to plug the ss gap. Cross your fingers!
    Last edited by anna; 01-02-2013 at 08:02 PM.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by anna View Post
    Cliff pennington did get clutch hits and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012.
    Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
    He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
    He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

    He had a negative WPA for the season.

    He hit his worst in the most important game situations.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
    He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
    He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

    He had a negative WPA for the season.

    He hit his worst in the most important game situations.
    I'd rather roll dice with the import... Hoping for at least a .700 OPS, haha
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  15. #15
    most japanese position players don't really work well at the majors.
    I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps, but the guy who walks and cant run, most of the time hes clogging up the bases for somebody who can run. Dusty Baker.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    oakland,ca.
    Posts
    519
    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    most japanese position players don't really work well at the majors.


    Fukudome is a good example...
    Last edited by mlazar; 01-11-2013 at 08:29 PM. Reason: mistake

  17. #17
    It looks like Hiroyuki Nakajima has become just a footnote in the A's organisation and a waste of $6,000,000. I hope the A's can trade him for a prospect!
    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...40-man-roster/
    Athletics remove Hiroyuki Nakajima from 40-man roster

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    7,438
    Quote Originally Posted by anna View Post
    It looks like Hiroyuki Nakajima has become just a footnote in the A's organisation and a waste of $6,000,000. I hope the A's can trade him for a prospect!
    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...40-man-roster/
    Athletics remove Hiroyuki Nakajima from 40-man roster
    So much for that... lesson learned I guess. But hey, at least we're making the playoffs!
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Second Base
    Posts
    9,945
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    So much for that... lesson learned I guess. But hey, at least we're making the playoffs!
    Yeah, it is ridiculous how much teams are having to pay even to negotiate woth some of these cats over there. Then they have to draw up a lucrative contract on top of it! Crazy. Yu Darvish is working out here OK, though it looked a little iffy early on last year for some Ranger fans. The position players are a big gamble, too. Kosuke Fukodome was mentioned above, but Kaz Matsui, So Taguchi and a few others have been little more than bench guys. There was that 1Bman from Korea not long ago, he played for the Cubs and Dodgers, I think his name was Hee Seop Choi, and he never panned out either! Oh well, worth the shot. The A's are kicking butt again, and I like it!
    "It ain't braggin' if you can do it!" Dizzy Dean

    "He was a natural athlete. He was also one of the strongest men I'd ever met. He could tear telephone books in half all day long. He never used a knife to cut an apple; he simply split it in two with his fingers. And he was fast. Dave could outrun anyone on our team. . . . The Lord had given freely to Dave." Willie Stargell on Dave Parker

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Location
    Far NE Philadelphia
    Posts
    5,587
    Quote Originally Posted by Herr28 View Post
    There was that 1Bman from Korea not long ago, he played for the Cubs and Dodgers, I think his name was Hee Seop Choi, and he never panned out either! Oh well, worth the shot. The A's are kicking butt again, and I like it!
    A name from the recent past. I was watching a game that was nationally televised and a hitter hit a soft floater about 15 feet in the air between the mound and first base. Choi and Kerry Wood both went for it and Kerry did a faceplant (at least it looked that way at first) into Choi's ribs. Remember, as much as Choi was looked at to be a decent signing, Wood had the potential to be a true ace. I thought for sure Kerry would be down for the count, but Choi wasn't moving. They had to bring an ambulance onto the field and take Choi to the hospital. I believe he came back but played sporadically during the rest of the year. He played a couple more seasons, but had to shut things down - at least that's what I remember.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •