A's Get New SS from Japan!

**Zito75** · 12-18-2012, 02:35 PM

Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?

**filihok** · 12-18-2012, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by Zito75

Announced by Billy B today at a Press Conference:

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...s_oak&c_id=oak

This sounds super encouraging! Hits for average, plays solid D and averages 20 jacks / year in his career... Thoughts?

He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.

**Zito75** · 12-18-2012, 11:47 PM

Originally Posted by filihok

He was second in Japan in OBP and 4th in SLG this season.

I've heard that his defense at SS is questionable.

Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.

**filihok** · 12-19-2012, 12:21 AM

Originally Posted by Zito75

Well, we're about to find out. I'll take anyone over Cliff Pennington - that experiment didn't work out too well.

Pennington had 1 good season and 1 below average season and a partial season in which his peripherals look good but his totals look bad.

In 2010: Pennington was credited with 3.9 fWAR. He hit .319/.368 (OBP/SLG) for a .308 wOBA which was 9% below league average.
In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

2010 BABIP = .296
2011 BABIP = .314
2012 BABIP = .259

His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

How about his defense?
YEAR: UZR
2010: 8.8
2011: -6.1
2012: 10.1

He had 2 good years and 1 bad year. Defensive stats are more fickle than hitting stats so take them with a grain of salt. He's generally regarded as a good fielder. Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report rated him as a 3.9 out of 5. If we average his 3 years of defense, we get (8.8-6.1+10.1) 4.3. A 'good' defender is usually considered 5 - 10 runs above average. It's possible he's a good defender who had a bad year in 2011, players have bad years offensively, they can have bad ones defensively as well.

Baserunning, his numbers look like:
2010: 9.9 runs
2011: -5.2 runs
2012: 7.4 runs

Similar to his defense, he had a bad showing in 2011 but rebounded in 2012. He's probably a 0-5 run base runner.

Add all of those things together and you get a SS worth between 2 and 3 wins a season. That's totally acceptable for a starter.

*data FanGraphs

**Zito75** · 12-19-2012, 09:10 AM

Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.

**filihok** · 12-19-2012, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by Zito75

Thanks for the analysis. I do research for a loving so it's always nice to see a perspective that I can relate to. Nice digging.
I had Pennington pegged for a .300 hitter when he came up - guess not. He's regressed. I totally expect him to be a roll player, but he could have some trade value.

What in my 'analysis' do you disagree with?

I specifically indicated that he has not regressed

It's almost impossible for Pennington to be a .300 hitter with his K rate.

Assume 600 plate appearances.
Pennington K's about 19% of the time and walks about 8% of the time.
In those 600 PA's Pennington would K 114 times and walk 48 times.
Taking the 48 BB's away from the PA's leaves 552 at bats (we'll ignore HPB, SF, SH, etc).
Take away the 114 K's. That leaves 438 balls in play.

Pennington hits about 6 HR's per year. Take those out of the balls in play (438-6). That leaves 432 balls in play.

What would he have to hit on those 432 balls in play to hit .300?
Remember that he has 114 K's which add to his at bats and 6 home runs which also add to his at bats
That's 552 at bats.
.300 * 552 = 166 hits.
6 are home runs.
That means he needs 160 hits on the 432 balls in play.
160/432 = .370
He'd need a .370 BABIP to hit .300.

His career BABIP is .315

League average BABIP is around .290

Highly unlikely he'll ever be a .300 hitter unless he cuts down on his K's or adds a bunch of home runs.

**Zito75** · 12-19-2012, 10:24 AM

I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming. We'll have to see his production play out another year so we can trend it.
Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.

**filihok** · 12-19-2012, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by Zito75

I am not disputing your research, and I probably have jumped the gun on the "regressed" statement. Maybe I should say "regressing."

In 2011: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .319/.369 (OBP/SLG) for a .309 wOBA which was 8% below league average.
In 2012: Pennington was credited with 1.4 fWAR. He hit .278/.311 (OBP/SLG) for a .263 wOBA which was 35% below league average.

Although his fWAR was the same, the dip in his stats that you broke out is alarming.

So, his offense in 2010 and 2011 was almost identical. His offense in 2012 showed a pretty big drop-off? Why?
His walk and strikeout rates were both very similar. HR aren't a big part of his game, but he didn't show a decline in HR/FB.

2010 BABIP = .296
2011 BABIP = .314
2012 BABIP = .259

His BABIP tanked. Should it have?
2010: 22% LD, 36% GB, 43% FB, 12% IFFB.
2011: 25% LD, 36% GB, 40% FB, 11% IFFB.
2012: 23% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 8% IFFB.

Very small changes in his batted ball profile. He hits a lot of line drives. And he hit a few more balls on the ground than in the air while cutting down on pop ups. I see no reason for his BABIP to have dropped and would expect a recovery in his offense next season.

Obviously, the team is also concerned as shown by bringing in our Japanese import. Pennington, if he sticks around, will probably platoon at 3B and may spell the guys at SS and maybe at 2B if needed. A pure utility role is likely.

Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young

**Zito75** · 12-19-2012, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by filihok

Pennington was traded to Arizona for Chris Young

LOL. You're right - and I even posted a thread on that topic. I'll blame it on the stroke I had back in February. Sometimes I forget stuff.

**filihok** · 12-19-2012, 11:30 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Fmmk8c7otHU

**Ben Grimm** · 12-19-2012, 03:43 PM

Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.

**anna** · 01-02-2013, 07:57 PM

Originally Posted by Ben Grimm

Hopefully he works out better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka did for the Twins. Dude hit .346 in Japan, and couldn't hit his weight over here - like the majority of players from NPL. It's really a crapshoot when it comes to these guys.

Stephen Drew signed a one year contract with the Red Soxs for 9 million. A 2.5 million more than Nakajima's 2 year contract with the A's. I'm rather sceptical about how Japanese profis fare here.

Matsui Slumpsui didn't help much.

Cliff Pennington did get clutch hits, despite an off year, and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012. All these unproductive hits in low pressure situations in 2010 and 2011 didn't help much. I liked Ryan Sweeney's near .300 batting averages, but that was a dead end in overall team production. I'm not sold on Nakajima, but it looks like there's no one else to plug the ss gap. Cross your fingers!

**filihok** · 01-02-2013, 08:03 PM

Originally Posted by anna

Cliff pennington did get clutch hits and clutch hits were a real key to the A's success in 2012.

Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

He had a negative WPA for the season.

He hit his worst in the most important game situations.

**Zito75** · 01-03-2013, 08:29 AM

Originally Posted by filihok

Pennington had a .262 wOBA in low leverage situations in 2012
He had a .271 wOBA in medium leverage situations in 2012
He had a .235 wOBA in high leverage situations in 2012.

He had a negative WPA for the season.

He hit his worst in the most important game situations.

I'd rather roll dice with the import... Hoping for at least a .700 OPS, haha